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Getting rid of the shift is a dumb idea. Hitters need to start going away with the ball, need to stop swinging for the fences with 2 strikes, need to start bunting against the shift more. Not everyone swung for the fences before the 80s. THATS the reason the shift works. It's because hitters have not adapted.

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10 minutes ago, Getzlaf15 said:

I've never understood why hitters aren't willing to learn how to bunt and beat the shift.  Heck, some of those could turn into doubles if you bunted it hard enough.

I'm watching more this year after six years of losing interest because I'm not a fan of HR Derby baseball 24/7. I use to know every player and the Top 20 prospects on every team.  Now, I might be able to tell you one player on the Orioles.

 As an Angel fan, I'm really enjoying watching Ohtani every game. I don't miss many Angel games.

Two nights ago, I booked a trip Sept 10-12.  Field of Dreams site on Sept 11 and Giants/Cubs at Wrigley on Sept 12. Taking my youngest son. Really looking forward to this. 

If they did this the shift would either go away completely or be minimized and it would open up holes for the hitter all over the field.  I agree completely that when the defense is giving you a free hit, why not take it?  It doesn't even have to be a good bunt and you really don't have to be fast either.  

Edited by Gally
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4 minutes ago, Gally said:

If they did this the shift would either go away completely or be minimized and it would open up holes for the hitter all over the field.  I agree completely that when the defense is giving you a free hit, why not take it?  It doesn't even have to be a good bunt and you really don't have to be fast either.  

Because analytics nerds don't want them doing this. And that's who rules baseball now.

 

 

 

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Yeah, loved the sport as a kid. Couldn't care less now. Hate the analytics driven game play. I get that the math works in a vacuum but that style of play just is not appealing to me. Just can't stand watching a parade of.  .245 hitters go to the plate swinging for the fences. 

The fact that the Yankees have clearly missed their window with a group that I thought would be in the mix for multiple rings 3-4 years ago doesn't help either. 

Don't think I've watched a game this year. 

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I have no problem with the shifting and the refusal to beat the shift. I find it interesting that we have the debate so clearly won by the analytics guys, much like they predicted they would back in the '90s.

It's fascinating to me to see it in real time.

And the nerds are generally right, best I can suss out.

And I'm one of the guys who wonders if the occasional bunt or slap hit the other way wouldn't alleviate the burden placed upon hitters by the shift. But bunting and going the other way are really tough things to do with a baseball bat. That shouldn't take a nerd to tell anyone that it's not easy to bunt a 90 MPH fastball or inside-out swing at a pitch middle-in.

Those things aren't easy to do unless you alter your swing, something the front offices are loathe to see.

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10 minutes ago, Gally said:

If they did this the shift would either go away completely or be minimized and it would open up holes for the hitter all over the field.  I agree completely that when the defense is giving you a free hit, why not take it?  It doesn't even have to be a good bunt and you really don't have to be fast either.  

I saw Victor Martinez get a hit in his final at bat hitting an infield squibber against the shift. At that time he might have been the slowest player I've ever seen.

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The 1st Super Bowl wasn't even played until 1966

Baseball got to flourish with very little else to compete with over many decades in the late 19th Century and the Early to mid 20th Century. The game has changed forever and the average age of folks at Baseball games is starting to look like Catholic Churches in some places. 

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13 minutes ago, ChiefD said:

Because analytics nerds don't want them doing this. And that's who rules baseball now.

 

 

 

That will catch up too.  Eventually the numbers against the shift will show that getting people on base and taking them out of the shift will be the better statistical play.  

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10 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I have no problem with the shifting and the refusal to beat the shift. I find it interesting that we have the debate so clearly won by the analytics guys, much like they predicted they would back in the '90s.

It's fascinating to me to see it in real time.

And the nerds are generally right, best I can suss out.

And I'm one of the guys who wonders if the occasional bunt or slap hit the other way wouldn't alleviate the burden placed upon hitters by the shift. But bunting and going the other way are really tough things to do with a baseball bat. That shouldn't take a nerd to tell anyone that it's not easy to bunt a 90 MPH fastball or inside-out swing at a pitch middle-in.

Those things aren't easy to do unless you alter your swing, something the front offices are loathe to see.

Bunting for a pro baseball player into a wide open area when you don't have to be "fine" with it is not that difficult compared to actual hitting.  It doesn't take much practice for the players with that level of hand eye coordination to be able to do it good enough to get 50 more hits a season (one every third game).  

 

Things evolve and I believe eventually the nerds will realize that getting people on base when the shift is in place will lead to more runs than always hitting into the shift and hitting .200 against it.   The game is about adjustments.  The defense has adjusted and now its time for the offense to adjust.  It will happen eventually and is a great part of the game (at least to me).  

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1 hour ago, HellToupee said:
On 7/12/2021 at 7:07 PM, The General said:

Big Meat Pete going to take down back to back titles.

Growing up a friend in my group was Sweet Meat Pete

Alsono loves to order the Porterhouse for two!

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39 minutes ago, Gally said:

Bunting for a pro baseball player into a wide open area when you don't have to be "fine" with it is not that difficult compared to actual hitting.  It doesn't take much practice for the players with that level of hand eye coordination to be able to do it good enough to get 50 more hits a season (one every third game).  

 

Things evolve and I believe eventually the nerds will realize that getting people on base when the shift is in place will lead to more runs than always hitting into the shift and hitting .200 against it.   The game is about adjustments.  The defense has adjusted and now its time for the offense to adjust.  It will happen eventually and is a great part of the game (at least to me).  

50 is a little bit of an exaggeration there LOL.

The shift isn't something new.  Ted WIlliams was shifted.

It will all change when ONE team embraces a philosophy of having every hitter in their lineup learn to bunt/slap hit the other way and wins a pennant. This could likely be accomplished in one week of dedicated training during Spring Training.   Same as NHL teams changed to a speed game a few years ago and NFL teams change all the time on the latest fad that works.

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13 minutes ago, Getzlaf15 said:

50 is a little bit of an exaggeration there LOL.

The shift isn't something new.  Ted WIlliams was shifted.

It will all change when ONE team embraces a philosophy of having every hitter in their lineup learn to bunt/slap hit the other way and wins a pennant. This could likely be accomplished in one week of dedicated training during Spring Training.   Same as NHL teams changed to a speed game a few years ago and NFL teams change all the time on the latest fad that works.

LMAO at one week during Spring Training. Players are taught to swing for the fences from the beginning of their minor league career. It would take years of training to break those habits.

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17 minutes ago, jobarules said:

LMAO at one week during Spring Training. Players are taught to swing for the fences from the beginning of their minor league career. It would take years of training to break those habits.

Actually that swing for the fence training begins when they are 8 yrs old nowadays.  

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33 minutes ago, Getzlaf15 said:

50 is a little bit of an exaggeration there LOL.

The shift isn't something new.  Ted WIlliams was shifted.

It will all change when ONE team embraces a philosophy of having every hitter in their lineup learn to bunt/slap hit the other way and wins a pennant. This could likely be accomplished in one week of dedicated training during Spring Training.   Same as NHL teams changed to a speed game a few years ago and NFL teams change all the time on the latest fad that works.

I don't think so.  A left handed batter like Gallo who faces the completely exaggerated shift to the right side every time he is up (4-5 times a game) could lay down a crappy bunt to 3B once every three games with no problem adding 50 hits to his stats.  I don't think it would be an exaggeration if someone committed to doing so.  The only way they wouldn't get there would be if the defense adjusts and takes the bunt away, but then that opens up the pull side which will help increase hits as well.  

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1 hour ago, ChiefD said:

Because analytics nerds don't want them doing this. And that's who rules baseball now.

 

 

 

Why would you want your own hitters doing something that makes them uncomfortable and worse hitters? Defenses go into the shift because they pray the batter lays down a bunt or tries to do something out of their comfort zone.
 

No matter how many times y’all say it, having your best hitter lay down a bunt is a disaster. 

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18 minutes ago, Gally said:

I don't think so.  A left handed batter like Gallo who faces the completely exaggerated shift to the right side every time he is up (4-5 times a game) could lay down a crappy bunt to 3B once every three games with no problem adding 50 hits to his stats.  I don't think it would be an exaggeration if someone committed to doing so.  The only way they wouldn't get there would be if the defense adjusts and takes the bunt away, but then that opens up the pull side which will help increase hits as well.  

Gallo is homering every 14.5 at bats. Once every 3.5 games. You’re going to take that average down for some bunt hits?

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I'm an engineer.  I embrace the data and the analytics.  Baseball generates so much situational data, teams would be a fool not to look at it, use it, adapt to it, etc.   

But it makes MLB painful to watch.  Every other batter hits into the shift. Everything is 3 true outcomes now.  I was over at my in-laws house about a month ago and my F-I-L put the tv on a random baseball game, I can't even remember who was playing now.  The game ended 3-2, all five runs were scored via 5 solo homers.  Yawn. I miss watching Tony Gwynn and Kirby Puckett

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6 minutes ago, Capella said:

Gallo is homering every 14.5 at bats. Once every 3.5 games. You’re going to take that average down for some bunt hits?

100% chance of a single vs 6% chance of a HR? Pretty sure the OBP/SLG/OPS of the former is higher than the latter.

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4 minutes ago, Capella said:

Gallo is homering every 14.5 at bats. Once every 3.5 games. You’re going to take that average down for some bunt hits?

Why can't he do both?  Take one AB a game and bunt and swing away the other 3-4 AB's a game and it won't change that much and will likely improve his overall production

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50 minutes ago, jobarules said:

LMAO at one week during Spring Training. Players are taught to swing for the fences from the beginning of their minor league career. It would take years of training to break those habits.

It's laughable that you think a player can't take 100 pitches a day for a week and not learn how to bunt.

It wouldn't change their normal swing a bit.  HELLO, you don't swing when you bunt, so how would it change their swing. Maybe the dumbest post I've ever seen here.

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8 minutes ago, jobarules said:

100% chance of a single vs 6% chance of a HR? Pretty sure the OBP/SLG/OPS of the former is higher than the latter.

Obp, sure. Slugging….no. 
 

Also, do you think you guys on the message board are the only ones who have cracked this mysterious code? There’s a reason teams aren’t doing this. It’s insane. 

Edited by Capella
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13 minutes ago, Capella said:

Gallo is homering every 14.5 at bats. Once every 3.5 games. You’re going to take that average down for some bunt hits?

If he bunts once every three games, I'm not seeing that average really go down.  He also might get more hits and RBI when the D shifts back a little.

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Joey Gallo has a lifetime .213 average with 46% of his RBI from his own HR's.

This is exactly why many don't want to watch the game any more and the last guy that should be used for defending not learning new skills.

170 RBI is 557 career games not on his own HR's is not my definition of an All Star player.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gallojo01.shtml


The other thing I HATE about watching games now is all this velocity and elevation stats that pollute every third word out of an announcer.  WHO really cares about this stuff?  And WHY does MLB think this will attract new viewers?

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4 minutes ago, Getzlaf15 said:

Joey Gallo has a lifetime .213 average with 46% of his RBI from his own HR's.

This is exactly why many don't want to watch the game any more and the last guy that should be used for defending not learning new skills.

170 RBI is 557 career games not on his own HR's is not my definition of an All Star player.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gallojo01.shtml


The other thing I HATE about watching games now is all this velocity and elevation stats that pollute every third word out of an announcer.  WHO really cares about this stuff?  And WHY does MLB think this will attract new viewers?

Maybe math nerds are their target demographic to increase fans?:shrug:

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Just now, Raging weasel said:

Maybe math nerds are their target demographic to increase fans?:shrug:

I'm as big a math nerd as you can find. If this is their target, then oof.

I'd like to know who did the research to determine this a viable.   Same with all the win probability crap all over the place.

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47 minutes ago, Getzlaf15 said:

It's laughable that you think a player can't take 100 pitches a day for a week and not learn how to bunt.

It wouldn't change their normal swing a bit.  HELLO, you don't swing when you bunt, so how would it change their swing. Maybe the dumbest post I've ever seen here.

I wasnt talking about bunting. I was talking about hitting the other way.

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47 minutes ago, Capella said:

Obp, sure. Slugging….no. 
 

Also, do you think you guys on the message board are the only ones who have cracked this mysterious code? There’s a reason teams aren’t doing this. It’s insane. 

Slugging % is calculated as total bases/AB

If he bunts for a hit 100% of his ABs, his slugging % would be 1/1 = 1.000

If he hits a HR 6% of his ABs, his slugging % would be 4/1 * .06 = 0.240

Vlad Guerrero Jr leads all baseball in slugging % at 0.430

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46 minutes ago, Capella said:

Obp, sure. Slugging….no. 
 

Also, do you think you guys on the message board are the only ones who have cracked this mysterious code? There’s a reason teams aren’t doing this. It’s insane. 

I don't think I cracked anything.  I think it will circle back around because you still have some guys that can hit to all fields and affect some of the results.  If the league continues on it's current path will everyone trying to jack every pitch out of the part the averages will keep going down (so will base runners) and K's will keep going up.  Eventually the math will swing the other direction and bring back bunts and baserunners because it will now be better analytically.  

 

The game changes and everyone tries to get the advantage.  I have no doubt it will swing back but it may be too late for fans.  

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1 hour ago, Capella said:

Why would you want your own hitters doing something that makes them uncomfortable and worse hitters? Defenses go into the shift because they pray the batter lays down a bunt or tries to do something out of their comfort zone.
 

No matter how many times y’all say it, having your best hitter lay down a bunt is a disaster. 

Shifts don't work against the best hitters.  The work against the dead pull, swing for the fence hitters.  Those guys aren't the best hitters and laying down a bunt to pull them out of the shift once every three games will open up holes for the dead pull guy as the shift softens.  Eventually the analytics will swing back that way when hitters averages drop to 0.125 with 350K's a year.  There is a line where bunting for basehits now becomes worth it.  

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5 minutes ago, jobarules said:

Slugging % is calculated as total bases/AB

If he bunts for a hit 100% of his ABs, his slugging % would be 1/1 = 1.000

If he hits a HR 6% of his ABs, his slugging % would be 4/1 * .06 = 0.240

Vlad Guerrero Jr leads all baseball in slugging % at 0.430

Bro slugging is calculated as (1B + 2Bx2 + 3Bx3 + HRx4)/AB and Vlad’s slugging percentage is .658. 

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1 minute ago, Capella said:

Bro slugging is calculated as (1B + 2Bx2 + 3Bx3 + HRx4)/AB and Vlad’s slugging percentage is .658. 

Yeah I think I read his OBP

 

But the bolded is exactly what I said.

"Slugging % is calculated as total bases/AB"

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2 minutes ago, jobarules said:

Yeah I think I read his OBP

 

But the bolded is exactly what I said.

"Slugging % is calculated as total bases/AB"

If Vlad or any power hitter got up there and hit dinky bunt singles all day they’d be a significantly worse player. I don’t know what else to say. 

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Just now, Capella said:

If Vlad or any power hitter got up there and hit dinky bunt singles all day they’d be a significantly worse player. I don’t know what else to say. 

Not all day.  Once every 15 AB's and that would go away after D shifts back.  And In the right situations.

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4 minutes ago, Capella said:

Bro slugging is calculated as (1B + 2Bx2 + 3Bx3 + HRx4)/AB and Vlad’s slugging percentage is .658. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-truth-about-bunting/

Quote

Mathematically, it seems so obvious. The overwhelming number of grounders in play are pulled. The shift is designed to turn more balls in play into outs. But the shift also leaves a gaping hole in the direction of third base, and with an even adequate bunt, it’s an easy single. There’s no such thing as a bunt triple or a bunt homer, but isn’t an almost automatic hit better than a possible hit and a probable out? Tangotiger has calculated in the past that it’s a good idea to bunt if you can be successful a little over half the time. How is it possible that we don’t see this more?

Here's a good counter-point. Its harder to bunt than we expect.

Quote

So why don’t we see more bunting against the shift? Certainly, there has to be some element of stubbornness. But it’s also just a hard thing to do, even with a lot of practice, which most shifted hitters don’t have. A foul bunt or a missed bunt is just a strike, a strike that also makes the defense aware of the bunt possibility. The pitcher, as well, becomes aware of the possibility, and might throw less buntable pitches. The math might still work out in the pro-bunt favor — I’m not close to smart enough to work all that out. But I’ve never seen bunt success rates before, and I wasn’t expecting 50%. That’s a pretty low success rate, for bunts that aren’t even necessarily successful.

 

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2 minutes ago, Capella said:

If Vlad or any power hitter got up there and hit dinky bunt singles all day they’d be a significantly worse player. I don’t know what else to say. 

Nobody is saying they have to do it all day. Just once every few games puts it in the back of the opposing team's minds and then all of a sudden the shift starts decreasing. Think of it like a trick play in football.

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7 hours ago, jobarules said:

Here's a good counter-point. Its harder to bunt than we expect.

This is what I was saying before being dissed. Ouch, y'all! No, really, I think Cappy has it right here. I think this has been thought about and implemented so slowly over time that the statistics are keeping up with what is transpiring in terms of slapping the ball the other way and bunting.

I guess I have blind faith in numbers.

8 hours ago, wlwiles said:

I'm an engineer.  I embrace the data and the analytics.  Baseball generates so much situational data, teams would be a fool not to look at it, use it, adapt to it, etc.   

But it makes MLB painful to watch.  Every other batter hits into the shift. Everything is 3 true outcomes now.

The three true outcomes was such a radical concept at its inception that I'm not sure exactly how much it's being embraced. It seems like it is, but a walk, K, or home run probably happens how much of the time? Even today?

Perhaps the whole K element has increased drastically. I don't know. Part of why I don't watch anymore, though I don't really mind strike outs. At all. But they're not very democratic.

Edited by rockaction
edited for past tense about three true outcomes. It was a '90s thing.
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1 hour ago, Capella said:

Also, do you think you guys on the message board are the only ones who have cracked this mysterious code? 

:goodposting:  And LOL @ starting an argument with the notion that someone can bunt for a hit 100% of time against the shift.

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Watched pieces of some playoff games the year Houston won the series (I'm friends with Bregman's father).  That's been it, though I am intrigued by what I hear about Ohtani.

Last game I went to was 10 years ago - a matinee between Cardinals and Astros the year the Cards won the series.  Couldn't believe I could get an MLB ticket for $10 - I'm used to boxing and NFL prices

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Speaking of Ohtani, I saw him play in the Trop a few weeks ago.

He led off with a 453 foot homer.

Then he laid down a great bunt down the first base line for a single in the third.

Fans were like, "is that how you bunt?"

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2 hours ago, jobarules said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-truth-about-bunting/

Here's a good counter-point. Its harder to bunt than we expect.

 

I read through that and it is very misleading for the exact situation we are talking about.  A full shift with nobody on the left side of the infield.  It also doesn't take into account the affect that at least showing that you may bunt semi-frequently will alter the defensive alignment over time which gains you some advantage for swinging away.

 

The bottom line is players don't practice this at all because you don't make money bunting.  You make money hitting HR's.  So a player can keep swinging away and hitting .230 while hitting 35 HR's and they will make the money they are seeking.  There is no external reason at the moment to work at bunting.  

 

I think the pendulum will swing back the other way eventually as averages plummet as defenses sell out to the shift.  Eventually it will show that working at bunting so you can occasionally get a free hit will be beneficial "per the numbers" and then it will start happening.  We aren't there yet.  

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3 hours ago, rockaction said:
4 hours ago, wlwiles said:

I'm an engineer.  I embrace the data and the analytics.  Baseball generates so much situational data, teams would be a fool not to look at it, use it, adapt to it, etc.   

But it makes MLB painful to watch.  Every other batter hits into the shift. Everything is 3 true outcomes now.

The three true outcomes is such a radical concept that I'm not sure exactly how much it's being embraced. It seems like it is, but a walk, K, or home run probably happens how much of the time? Even today?

Perhaps the whole K element has increased drastically. I don't know. Part of why I don't watch anymore, though I don't really mind strike outs. At all. But they're not very democratic.

Not often enough, imo.  Walks are boring, but K's and homers are fun.  What isn't fun is the constant DEEELLLAAAYYYY you mentioned earlier, nor is a ground ball pulled to one of 5 guys who are sitting on 20% of the field of play waiting for that ground ball and the batter being thrown out at first by the 2nd baseman who is 200 feet from the plate in right-center.  

The math works as far as winning games.  It does NOT work as far as making the game enjoyable to watch.

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I was at Miller Park a couple weeks ago and there was one of those high fly balls to shallow center with 2 men on, where it would be an infield fly if it were about 5-10 feet toward the infield.  I was extremely high.  I declared on the spot that my rule change would be to do away with the infield fly rule.  A moon ball to the SS with men on 1st and 2nd instantly becomes the most exciting play in baseball.  Also, definitely keep the auto-baserunner in extra innings, and consider putting a guy on 2nd to start every inning.  Now, the pitcher is in a tense situation to start every inning, there's no shift, no strolling about the mound - its game on right from the start and strategy becomes much more complex and interesting.

 

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24 minutes ago, CletiusMaximus said:

I was at Miller Park a couple weeks ago and there was one of those high fly balls to shallow center with 2 men on, where it would be an infield fly if it were about 5-10 feet toward the infield.  I was extremely high.  I declared on the spot that my rule change would be to do away with the infield fly rule.  A moon ball to the SS with men on 1st and 2nd instantly becomes the most exciting play in baseball.  Also, definitely keep the auto-baserunner in extra innings, and consider putting a guy on 2nd to start every inning.  Now, the pitcher is in a tense situation to start every inning, there's no shift, no strolling about the mound - its game on right from the start and strategy becomes much more complex and interesting.

 

You forgot the "take that to the bank brochacho"

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11 hours ago, Gally said:

If you get rid of the shift this will do the opposite of the bolded.  The bolded is the way to counteract the shift and make it useless.  If you had every hitter bunt into the vast open space available every time a team went into the shift they would stop shifting.  

 

Get rid of the sticky stuff - fine.  But the shift has nothing to getting baseball back to where it was.  The original alignment was that way because that is the way teams thought you could best cover the field and get outs.  It has nothing to do with positions or a certain rule or anything.  It is strictly where people thought you had the best chance of getting outs.  Nothing more, nothing less.

 

The shift is a team seeing where a player hits the ball most and then overloads that area to make it more difficult for them to get a hit.  If that player learns to bunt (and it doesn't even have to be good) then teams will stop shifting.  Playing the stuff you want to see (small ball, situational hitting, etc) will solve the issue naturally without forcing anything.  If you just eliminate the ability to shift to a hitters strengths you will just give even more justification to forget about small ball and just swing from the heels.  

 

If you eliminate the shift you also have to eliminate the infield in with a runner on third, 3rd baseman playing on the grass for bunts, bringing in the 5th infielder in the 9th of a tie game with the winning runner on 3rd.  You remove that much more strategy of the game that you are wanting to bring back.  

 

I have never understood why people don't like the shift.  What is it hurting?  It's easily beaten if players would just do the smart thing but they are stubborn (yes mostly due to sabermetrics saying swinging for a homer gives you a better chance to win than a bunt).  But if they start to realize that by bunting to defeat the shift it will open up much more of the field and give them better opportunities because people are on base to score it will change things.  Strategy goes in waves and baseball will catch up naturally without artificially restricted defensive zones.  

 

Shifting and defensive alignment is a cat and mouse game that adds to the strategy.  Just because hitters are behind doesn't mean you should take it away.  What is it you don't like about the shift?  What harm does it cause you?

It can’t be beaten the way they are teaching the game these days. 

If you think MLB is entertaining the way they are playing....by all means. But since hitters can’t bunt, can’t steal bases and can’t hit the other way......elimnate the shift and get some offense back in the game.

That is the problem.

Maybe when guys learn to hit again.....they can go back to shifting.....but then...it would not work.

And dude.....I understand the game quite well. The elaborate explanation was not needed. 

The issue is the players.....so the entertainment value has gone in the toilet.....the league needs to do something to get the game to open up some more in spite of itself. 

Edited by Todem
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