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Who will be the worst 8 offenses in 2021? (2 Viewers)

Please vote for the 8 teams you think are most likely in the bottom 8 in 2021

  • NY Jets

    Votes: 79 69.3%
  • Houston Texans

    Votes: 107 93.9%
  • Jacksonville Jaguars

    Votes: 51 44.7%
  • Detroit Lions

    Votes: 90 78.9%
  • Philadelphia Eagles

    Votes: 49 43.0%
  • Carolina Panthers

    Votes: 41 36.0%
  • Chicago Bears

    Votes: 53 46.5%
  • NY Giants

    Votes: 49 43.0%
  • Miami Dolphins

    Votes: 28 24.6%
  • New England Patriots

    Votes: 59 51.8%
  • Denver Broncos

    Votes: 48 42.1%
  • Cincinatti Bengals

    Votes: 9 7.9%
  • Los Vegas Raiders

    Votes: 24 21.1%
  • Atlanta Falcons

    Votes: 14 12.3%
  • Other

    Votes: 28 24.6%

  • Total voters
    114

Biabreakable

Footballguy
We have been discussing which offenses will most likely be in the bottom 8 of the NFL this season and I am looking for more feedback on this.

This is a multiple choice poll. What I would like voters to do is to vote for the 8 teams you think will most likely be at the bottom of the NFL in terms of points scored and yards gained in 2021.

I included the 14 teams that I think are most likely to be in that group, but if you think another team will be this bad please vote other and post who that team is.

Thanks for voting and discussion welcome.

 
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This would not make me unhappy! =P
It would make America unhappy. Half of my home state roots for them.

Hou and Det have atrocious rosters at key positions (QB, WR, respectively.) NE & the NYJ were the obvious picks for me. Miami could go either way depending on Tua’s development.

Good place to remind everyone at this time last we knew a few things about Buffalo: they would be run heavy and Driggs was pretty iffy as a 6th rounder.

I could make a good case for most of the other teams. Honestly - and this is true every year - we are going to be surprised about who is good and who is not this year.

 
Steelers blew up their oline and have a new OC. Everyone seems to think they will fix their issues but Ben looked done last year. He might not make it the whole season and we remember how bad Rudolph was. 

 
Many of the bad offenses make sense...  but I am not sure I see Cinn as Bottom 8 Feeder with the offense skill players on the roster.  

I really see NYJ, Phi & Hou as battling for the Crown of Worst of '21 

Adding to the bottom Tier, including CHI they are the the favorites from the poll so far.   

Not sure I would put NEP as Bottom 8 with them.  The revamped offense could have some life.  (I don't see Cam holding the job past week 5)

Does DET Offense have so little life?  I guess the WR group is not in line with a quality scoring offense.  Or is the Coaching staff bring the votes of "no confidence"? 

 
They have.... Swift and :tumbleweed:
Uh, Tyrell Williams? 

Hockenson should be good. If you like potentially good TEs in an offense that goes 3 & out a lot.

as the 4th TE off the board I feel like he’s being over-drafted. I guess folks are thinking Goff will pepper him with balls, but I see no reason for defenses to not sell out a little to cover him, and I’m not sure the OL can hold up long enough for Goff to find him. 

 
Uh, Tyrell Williams? 

Hockenson should be good. If you like potentially good TEs in an offense that goes 3 & out a lot.

as the 4th TE off the board I feel like he’s being over-drafted. I guess folks are thinking Goff will pepper him with balls, but I see no reason for defenses to not sell out a little to cover him, and I’m not sure the OL can hold up long enough for Goff to find him. 
Hock will probably be okay. But yeah I'm not taking him that high. He's in a group of about 8 low TE1 types. 

Detroit and Houston will be competing for their choice of Howell or Rattler. Detroit also gets to fight their 08 season for worst team ever.  It's going to be a long year for these guys. 

 
Projected ppg (based on point spreads) has the bottom 10 (starting with last place) as:

HOU
DET
NYJ
CHI
CIN
NYG
WAS
PHI
JAX
DEN

Projected offensive DVOA from Football Outsiders has it:

NYJ
HOU
JAX
CAR
WAS
CHI
ATL
NYG
PHI
CIN
Interesting that Jacksonville is outside the bottom 8 by Vegas. Eagles not in the bottom 8 by DVOA.

 
Steelers blew up their oline and have a new OC. Everyone seems to think they will fix their issues but Ben looked done last year. He might not make it the whole season and we remember how bad Rudolph was. 
Rudolph wasn't as bad as people remember. He was decent he just wasn't what 2018 Ben was. Rudolph might be every bit as good as current Ben, and the weapons(though not the OL) are much better than they were in 2019.

Hock will probably be okay. But yeah I'm not taking him that high. He's in a group of about 8 low TE1 types. 

Detroit and Houston will be competing for their choice of Howell or Rattler. Detroit also gets to fight their 08 season for worst team ever.  It's going to be a long year for these guys. 
I'd shocked if Detroit was anywhere near as bad as the 2008 team, I think they'll be better than people think, and maybe picking 7th again next year. Houston is probably as big of a lock to get the #1 pick as there has been in recent memory. I do agree that Hockenson is a little overrated. I've got him TE6, and that basically means he won't be on any of my teams.

I'm not sure Howell is a #1 pick contender. I like him, but I think Rattler would have to completely faceplant or suffer a major injury to not go #1. He probably would have gone #2 this year if he were eligible. 

 
Rudolph wasn't as bad as people remember. He was decent he just wasn't what 2018 Ben was. Rudolph might be every bit as good as current Ben, and the weapons(though not the OL) are much better than they were in 2019.
The Steelers were 27th in points scores and 30th in yards gained in 2019, In 2020 they were 12th in points scored and 24th in yards gained. That is a big difference in my view.

You are right that neither offense were as good as the Steelers in 2018 where they were 6th and 4th in these categories. The main difference being Anthonio Brown.

It is night and day however when you look at passing attempts. 2018 Ben threw the ball 675 times. In 2020 Ben threw the ball 608 times in 15 games with Rudolph also adding 43 pass attempts for a total of 656. In 2019 the Steelers only threw the ball 510 times.

As for Rudolph he hasn't been good. You can compare his limited numbers to Bens last season and Ben completed 65% of his passes while Rudolph only 58% thats a huge gap in my view.

 
I just want to say thanks everyone for all the votes. We have 42 different voters on this poll already. Its going at a faster pace than the rookie polls have been. I am pleasantly surprised by this. Keep them coming!

 
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The Steelers were 27th in points scores and 30th in yards gained in 2019, In 2020 they were 12th in points scored and 24th in yards gained. That is a big difference in my view.

You are right that neither offense were as good as the Steelers in 2018 where they were 6th and 4th in these categories. The main difference being Anthonio Brown.

It is night and day however when you look at passing attempts. 2018 Ben threw the ball 675 times. In 2020 Ben threw the ball 608 times in 15 games with Rudolph also adding 43 pass attempts for a total of 656. In 2019 the Steelers only threw the ball 510 times.

As for Rudolph he hasn't been good. You can compare his limited numbers to Bens last season and Ben completed 65% of his passes while Rudolph only 58% thats a huge gap in my view.
I would disagree, Rudolph has been ok, I think the Steelers agree, which is why they extended him. In 2019 they had a very banged up JuJu, a rookie Diontae, no Claypool, hell even no Ebron. The weapons were much better in 2020, though I agree that still isn't hitting 2018 levels.

You mentioned Rudolph's limited time last season, and while his completion percentage was lower, his YPA was over a full yard higher. He played better against the Browns in a must win week 17 game for the Browns than Roethlisberger did in the playoffs. 

I don't think the Steelers are a bottom 8 offense if Ben goes down, the weapons are simply too good, even with probably the leagues worst OL. Part of me actually wonders if they may be better off if Roethlisberger goes down, as so much of his high completion percentage was throwing harmless 4 yard passes. 

 
I would disagree, Rudolph has been ok, I think the Steelers agree, which is why they extended him. In 2019 they had a very banged up JuJu, a rookie Diontae, no Claypool, hell even no Ebron. The weapons were much better in 2020, though I agree that still isn't hitting 2018 levels.

You mentioned Rudolph's limited time last season, and while his completion percentage was lower, his YPA was over a full yard higher. He played better against the Browns in a must win week 17 game for the Browns than Roethlisberger did in the playoffs. 

I don't think the Steelers are a bottom 8 offense if Ben goes down, the weapons are simply too good, even with probably the leagues worst OL. Part of me actually wonders if they may be better off if Roethlisberger goes down, as so much of his high completion percentage was throwing harmless 4 yard passes. 
Ben was only sacked 13 times on 608 attempts. He gets rid of the ball quickly.

Rudolph had a very small sample size so things like yards per attempt not very meaningful but I suppose you could say the same about his completion percentage.

I think your nuts to say Rudolph would be better than Ben or even close to that. 

 
As much as we're not supposed to draft guys from bottom 8 offenses, there always seems to be one WR per team that hogs enough catches to be worth drafting.

 
Rudolph wasn't as bad as people remember. He was decent he just wasn't what 2018 Ben was. Rudolph might be every bit as good as current Ben, and the weapons(though not the OL) are much better than they were in 2019.

I'd shocked if Detroit was anywhere near as bad as the 2008 team, I think they'll be better than people think, and maybe picking 7th again next year. Houston is probably as big of a lock to get the #1 pick as there has been in recent memory. I do agree that Hockenson is a little overrated. I've got him TE6, and that basically means he won't be on any of my teams.

I'm not sure Howell is a #1 pick contender. I like him, but I think Rattler would have to completely faceplant or suffer a major injury to not go #1. He probably would have gone #2 this year if he were eligible. 
We'll see about Howell. I don't know if he'll be heavy in the conversation either but he's a top 3 pick today. 

Lions have a solid OL and Goff has shown to be decent before 2020. But their defense is going to get torched and they don't have the firepower to keep up or catch up.

The only player I'd draft from Detroit is Swift. I have a few Texans on my dynasty squads but would otherwise leave those alone too. (I did draft Mills and traded cheap for TT in a SF).

I'd also leave the pats alone in redraft but I like Mac enough in dynasty for his ADP. But I can't put a BB led team on the bottom. 

 
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We'll see about Howell. I don't know if he'll be heavy in the conversation either but he's a top 3 pick today. 

Lions have a solid OL and Goff has shown to be decent before 2020. But their defense is going to get torched and they don't have the firepower to keep up or catch up.

The only player I'd draft from Detroit is Swift. I have a few Texans on my dynasty squads but would otherwise leave those alone too. (I did draft Mills and traded cheap for TT in a SF).

I'd also leave the pats alone in redraft but I like Mac enough in dynasty for his ADP. But I can't put a BB led team on the bottom. 
I think the Detroit O has a good chance to be middle of the pack. Goff is proven when given time in the pocket and the oline could be top 15. Good RBs, TE, just need the WRs to get separation and stay healthy. And a good chance they pick up an average WR from future cuts. Lynn should also be a competent coordinator.

 
I think the Detroit O has a good chance to be middle of the pack. Goff is proven when given time in the pocket and the oline could be top 15. Good RBs, TE, just need the WRs to get separation and stay healthy. And a good chance they pick up an average WR from future cuts. Lynn should also be a competent coordinator.
What makes you think the Lions defense will improve to average in the league?

They were the worst defense in the NFL last season, that would be quite a jump.

They should be better but I expect the Lions to be chasing the score a lot in 2021 

 
What makes you think the Lions defense will improve to average in the league?

They were the worst defense in the NFL last season, that would be quite a jump.

They should be better but I expect the Lions to be chasing the score a lot in 2021 
Garbage time FF points?

 
Garbage time FF points?
I can see the garbage time points. But not enough to make them win. Maybe a game against Chicago or maybe in Atlanta. 

I think the Detroit O has a good chance to be middle of the pack. Goff is proven when given time in the pocket and the oline could be top 15. Good RBs, TE, just need the WRs to get separation and stay healthy. And a good chance they pick up an average WR from future cuts. Lynn should also be a competent coordinator.
I don't see it. Goff was barely average with really good receivers last year. Do you think the OL in Detroit is that much better? Enough to make him good again? "Just need the wr to get separation" is asking a lot of from these guys unless Cephus improves big time

 
As much as we're not supposed to draft guys from bottom 8 offenses, there always seems to be one WR per team that hogs enough catches to be worth drafting.
This is a good point. There have been good RB from bad offenses as well. 

Every rule is made to be broken but I think having a good idea about what may be the worst offenses is helpful for tempering expectations.

Maybe we should look at how frequently good players for fantasy actually come from bottom 8 offenses and use that as a guide for how strictly we should be applying this rule.

 
As much as we're not supposed to draft guys from bottom 8 offenses, there always seems to be one WR per team that hogs enough catches to be worth drafting.
This is a good point. There have been good RB from bad offenses as well. 

Every rule is made to be broken but I think having a good idea about what may be the worst offenses is helpful for tempering expectations.

Maybe we should look at how frequently good players for fantasy actually come from bottom 8 offenses and use that as a guide for how strictly we should be applying this rule.
I think you’re on the right track here. Yes there are exceptions that doesn’t mean the rule is invalidated. It actually supports the rule of thumb because they are exceptions they’re not an expected outcome.

James Robinson was on a bad offense had bad quarterbacks and a very bad team - the worst in the league - but he was a hog. Volume is everything. But none of the Jax running backs drafted late middle to very late rounds last year after Fournett was cut hit. So that exception teaches us absolutely nothing.

One thing the data tells us is historically we can see one productive running back or one league winner wide receiver. But on bad offenses it’s pretty rare to see two or three top 24 production performances like we will see on good offenses.

 
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Uh, Tyrell Williams? 

Hockenson should be good. If you like potentially good TEs in an offense that goes 3 & out a lot.

as the 4th TE off the board I feel like he’s being over-drafted. I guess folks are thinking Goff will pepper him with balls, but I see no reason for defenses to not sell out a little to cover him, and I’m not sure the OL can hold up long enough for Goff to find him. 
Amon-Ra will be better than average in the slot.  Tyrell will be a legit deep threat. Cephus and Boldin will be adequate. Fells & Hock combine for 15 TDs.  Swift and Williams combine to be top 10 duo in total yards from scrimmage.  Goff better than 96 Passer Rating.  I realize 99 percent of football experts expect the Lions to suck offensively.  But they are wrong. 

 
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Not sure on top 8 but I got NE and Houston as clear cut top worst offense and this is reflected in fantasy drafts were the top drafted players for those teams are Harris and Cooks and those are only players on those teams going in first 10 rounds with regularity.

NE has a glimmer of hope at least. A lot of new additions who could do something, maybe Cam is healthier and better, maybe Mac Jones helps if not. Houston has no glimmer of hope.

 
Almost 100 votes now which has me feeling pretty good about the quality of the sample size here.

I do want to look at how many good fantasy seasons came from players who were not on bottom 8 teams before applying this data to the eliminate the suck thread, but I think I have enough votes here for this part of that now.

 
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I think there are 3 that stick out then 3 more high risk/low ceiling options. It gets messy after them.

Assuming no Watson then Houston is obvious

For our purposes Detroit could be salvaged if the defense is bad enough. Makings of a good OL, but nothing at the skill positions and a coaching staff I think wants to slow the game down. Never gonna feel good about starting anyone on this offense.

Pittsburgh took what was a terrible OL and somehow made it worse. Defense is still a strength and they're hell bent on winning at least 8 games, so this has the makings of a putrid offense in both our game and the one that matters. 

I don't trust Urban and that's really the only reason I'm adding Jacksonville. I want him to prove me wrong.

Chicago will be bad as long as Dalton is starting. They may still be bad after that rug is inevitably pulled cause Nagy, but I'll give them a punchers chance with Fields behind an improving OL. Skeptical there's much of a year one ceiling though. Wary Nagy doesn't let him run enough. 

The Giants could be functional as long as Daniel Jones has his legs, but he showed last year that without them he is a terrible qb and we already know Jason Garrett is a terrible OC.

 
I would disagree, Rudolph has been ok, I think the Steelers agree, which is why they extended him. In 2019 they had a very banged up JuJu, a rookie Diontae, no Claypool, hell even no Ebron. The weapons were much better in 2020, though I agree that still isn't hitting 2018 levels.

You mentioned Rudolph's limited time last season, and while his completion percentage was lower, his YPA was over a full yard higher. He played better against the Browns in a must win week 17 game for the Browns than Roethlisberger did in the playoffs. 

I don't think the Steelers are a bottom 8 offense if Ben goes down, the weapons are simply too good, even with probably the leagues worst OL. Part of me actually wonders if they may be better off if Roethlisberger goes down, as so much of his high completion percentage was throwing harmless 4 yard passes. 
Rudolph did not play well against the Browns. He was going against a practice squad secondary and just tossed up 50-50 balls once the game reached a time in which they had to throw to possibly come back. 

 
Based on the current votes by percentage

Houston Texans
Detroit Lions
NY Jets
New England Patriots
Chicago Bears
NY Giants
Jacksonville Jaguars

Then for the 8th spot currently there is a tie between

Philadelphia Eagles
Denver Broncos

There have been some compelling arguments for why some of these teams will not be in the bottom 8 such as the Lions and the Giants.

 
I'm not gonna die on the Jets hill, but I think them under Saleh is a better position to be successful than the Bengals under Taylor. And I didn't list the Bengals in my bottom 6. Although the combination of their OL and Burrow likely being less than 100% week 1 is concerning. 

It will probably be a rough start for Wilson, but I like this offense's chances of ascending throughout the season.

 
Projected ppg (based on point spreads) has the bottom 10 (starting with last place) as:

HOU
DET
NYJ
CHI
CIN
NYG
WAS
PHI
JAX
DEN

Projected offensive DVOA from Football Outsiders has it:

NYJ
HOU
JAX
CAR
WAS
CHI
ATL
NYG
PHI
CIN
pretty much the same offenses that I selected.sub Wash for Ne Patriots, sub Atl for Jax in ppg. NE is going to suck in 2021, offensively. there's no way around it.Cam can't hit the ocean with a beach ball and Mac Jones will have growing pains. Arthur Smith doesn't have the running game in Atl that he had in Tenn. , ATL is going to be a disaster this season.

 
Arthur Smith doesn't have the running game in Atl that he had in Tenn. , ATL is going to be a disaster this season.
I lump them in with Denver. I don't think either of them will be above average, but I don't think their floor is like those at the bottom. Barring injury of course. Matt Ryan will keep Atlanta from bottoming out and even if Drew Lock flops I think Bridgewater is capable enough on that team to steady the ship. 

I think offenses like the Jets, Panthers, Bengals, and Eagles are more likely to outright flop. I think they all come with enough plausible upside to separate them from the bottom, but they all possess their own risk and more than 0 of them will likely be worse than Atlanta and Denver. 

 
I like to contrast lists like these with the high ADP of some of the main players on these offenses.  The one that stands out is Hurts as the #10 QB.  Can a top 10 QB also be on a bottom 8 offense?

 
I like to contrast lists like these with the high ADP of some of the main players on these offenses.  The one that stands out is


Hurts


as the #10 QB.  Can a top 10 QB also be on a bottom 8 offense?
No, it's rare. And good point.

As some previous posters noted, there will be some surprises, both with teams falling into this category, and with some moving on up.

Based on some feedback I'm getting from the org, my hunch is that the NYJ (gasp) will be a surprise mover (up) this season. We'll see.

 
Tanner9919 said:
pretty much the same offenses that I selected.sub Wash for Ne Patriots, sub Atl for Jax in ppg. NE is going to suck in 2021, offensively. there's no way around it.Cam can't hit the ocean with a beach ball and Mac Jones will have growing pains. Arthur Smith doesn't have the running game in Atl that he had in Tenn. , ATL is going to be a disaster this season.
Everyone seems quick to bury Ryan but he's still a better QB than any of these teams (Watson excluded). I think it is premature to assume because Arthur Smith had success running with Henry that he can't run any other kind of offense. The guy salvaged Tannehill's career, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. 

I think PHI will be contending for worst offense in the league. The wr room is the youngest in the league, I don't have much faith in the coach and Hurts looked worse every game last year. 

 
Jets Hou and Det. The rest? Who knows? I don’t like the 8 idea. I get recognizing the obvious but some of the teams mentioned could be pretty darn good. Bad D? Garbage time facing bend don’t break prevent. Good D? Short field scoring ops. 

 
Jets Hou and Det. The rest? Who knows? I don’t like the 8 idea. I get recognizing the obvious but some of the teams mentioned could be pretty darn good. Bad D? Garbage time facing bend don’t break prevent. Good D? Short field scoring ops. 
Do you think bottom 8 is too many?

I am going to start going through each season and looking at top fantasy performers from bottom 8 offenses for how often that happens.

Bottom 8 was David Dodds idea so thats where this comes from. Bottom 8 is 25% of the teams.

 
Was there a limit to the number of options, why do we have to pick 8 from the 14 that you defined? 
You dont have to. You can vote for however many you want.

There isnt a time limit on this. As far as I am concerned the more votes the better and I am not ready to apply the results of this until I have gone through at least 10 seasons looking for players who had good fantasy seasons from bottom 8 teams.

Like anything you have to choose a cut off point somewhere even if that is somewhat arbitrary.

Maybe bottom 8 is too many teams. I am definitely giving that some through based on some of the feedback I have had about that recently.

 

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