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Cam Akers torn achilles - 7.20.21 - What do you see as the effects? (1 Viewer)

Condolences to Cam owners.  In the middle of a dynasty startup now.  Who's the target for LAR RB this year and what's the value?  Henderson?  Funk? FA coming in?

 
Condolences to Cam owners.  In the middle of a dynasty startup now.  Who's the target for LAR RB this year and what's the value?  Henderson?  Funk? FA coming in?
I don't think there is a FA RB that would beat out Henderson. The only guy who seems to possibly be available via trade feels like Melvin Gordon. That said, Henderson was really good at the start of last year, he was PFF's #1 RB through the first 4 weeks.

This really sucks though. Akers had the looks of the next big thing, an Achilles tear is basically a career ender for a RB. 

 
the RB situation could just be an avoid....trying to figure it out will be difficult even if they bring somebody else in....just bump Stafford/Higbee if you want a piece of the Ram pie...

 
the RB situation could just be an avoid....trying to figure it out will be difficult even if they bring somebody else in....just bump Stafford/Higbee if you want a piece of the Ram pie...
I think Henderson will be fine provided they don't bring in someone like Gordon.  Any FA RB will just be for depth but Henderson looked ok to good at times last year when healthy.  The real question is how far up does Henderson go up in ADP after this news.  That will be the telling piece of info on whether or not I would be willing to dive in.  I think if he tops out in the 5th/6th range I buy for sure.  4th might be a little too much for me.  

 
Condolences to Cam owners.  In the middle of a dynasty startup now.  Who's the target for LAR RB this year and what's the value?  Henderson?  Funk? FA coming in?
Henderson's got the best shot. I don't see any (current) FA as more than a body/JAG. That said, it's hard to put him above the Mike Davis/Chase Edmond level of "I guess he's the starting RB", and I wouldn't blame anyone that put the situation as one to completely avoid.

 
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Condolences to Cam owners.  In the middle of a dynasty startup now.  Who's the target for LAR RB this year and what's the value?  Henderson?  Funk? FA coming in?
I would think that Henderson would be looking like a RB2 as long as the Rams don’t bring in any healthy competition. 
 

I would fit him in right around the Gaskin, Jacobs range without looking at anything too closely. 

 
I don't think there is a FA RB that would beat out Henderson. The only guy who seems to possibly be available via trade feels like Melvin Gordon. That said, Henderson was really good at the start of last year, he was PFF's #1 RB through the first 4 weeks.

This really sucks though. Akers had the looks of the next big thing, an Achilles tear is basically a career ender for a RB. 
Sony Michel is rumored to be available. Before people laugh, he had a 5.7 ypc last year (he missed almost half the season with a quad injury and COVID). Not sure he would be considered a heavy usage back, but he would probably be a decent half the workload option.

 
Tough blow. For those thinking about replacements, Xavier Jones might just be legit. SMU product that led the NCAA FBS in touchdowns his senior year and went undrafted due to COVID. He looks great on film. Rams won't necessarily bring in aging star to replace him and Henderson. Even if, I'll bet Jones gets lots of run. He has already had guys on his own team talk about him glowingly last year.

 
Sony Michel is rumored to be available. Before people laugh, he had a 5.7 ypc last year (he missed almost half the season with a quad injury and COVID). Not sure he would be considered a heavy usage back, but he would probably be a decent half the workload option.
Michel had a much higher PFF than Akers last year, fwiw.

 
Here's what we sent to folks.

Hi Folks,

Bad news from Los Angeles.

Tom Pelissero reported, "Rams RB Cam Akers suffered a torn Achilles while training, per source. Brutal blow for L.A., which loses its leading rusher from last season a week before camp begins."

This morning before the news, this is how we had projected the entire Rams offense for 2021.

In our Detailed Stat Projections for players, we had Akers as the RB14 in PPR scoring formats. The obvious player to move up the boards will be Darrell Henderson, In our recent article about "Injury Away" running backs who could excel if given the chance, our Jordan McNamara said this about Henderson: "Much of the buzz about the Rams backfield is centered on second-year player Cam Akers. While Akers should lead the backfield, Henderson represents a cheap poker chip on what could be an elite offense in 2021." You can see the full article here.

We had Xavier Jones slotted behind Henderson and Jones will most certainly get his chances as well. He suddenly becomes very interesting.

Our Sigmund Bloom had this as a first take:

"Cam Akers injury is a blow to the Rams offense, but not necessarily one that they can't overcome. Darrell Henderson is one of the more talented backups in the NFL, and while his ADP won't get to the late first/early second-round level Akers was settled at, Henderson will likely cost a fourth-round pick, if not a third, as he'll be set up to be the primary back in the Rams offense.

"2020 UDFA Xavier Jones becomes the de facto #2 with a huge opening for seventh-round pick Jake Funk to not just make the team, but contribute in year one. The team also has Tampa's 2020 seventh-round pick Raymond Calais and 2021 UDFA Otis Anderson on the roster right now, but they are scatback types who won't figure into the bread and butter running game.

"Sean McVay could call up Todd Gurley to give the team veteran depth that is familiar with the offense, or kick the tires on someone like Adrian Peterson, Le'Veon Bell, or Frank Gore. If they don't sign a veteran back before or during camp, they should still be in the market for a back released at final cutdowns or to make a minor trade with a team that needs to lose a back to satisfy the numbers game to get to their final 53.

"The Rams don't have enough experience on the roster to feel good about going into the season with their current running back depth chart, but whoever they add shouldn't be a threat to Henderson's value. They could usurp the backup job in short order, so whatever value Jones and company have now could be temporary."

We'll have lots more on this tonight in the Email Update and of course on the site. If you'd like to dive deep with everything we do at Footballguys, please check out the Premium Subscriptions where we give you everything we've got to help you win more at fantasy football. As always, there's a 30-day moneyback guarantee so there's zero risk.

More soon and thanks for being part of the Footballguys Family.

J

 
No, it's really not. That's the first thing that went through my mind. That's not a knee injury. That's a "we've never really seen a guy come back from that, have we?"
a few WRs have come back from it (D Tomas & a couple other WR1s

unfortunately it seems like no elite RB has come back from it to play at a high level again 

 
No, it's really not. That's the first thing that went through my mind. That's not a knee injury. That's a "we've never really seen a guy come back from that, have we?"
The good news is part of the reason is they don’t happen often. We’ve seen some big name NBA players in recent years come back to full form from it so that’s a positive sign.

 
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Also, this is exactly the kind of thread that needs it's own thread. Not to be tacked on to a monster "official" thread. 

This is a story. That's not even really about Akers anymore. 

 
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The good news is part of the reason is because entry don’t happen often. We’ve seen some big name NBA players in recent years come back to full form from it so that’s a positive sign.
really depends on the severity, right? Are there different grades of torn v ruptured? IDK

 
The Rams spent a lot to bring in Matt Stafford, they have to be thinking about his well being. Gotta make sure the RB can pick up blitzes so their QB doesn't get injured. They need a RB threat to take some pressure off the passing game although they are going to be running thin now. They can go out and maybe make a trade but they won't get any real help until next off season and perhaps the Draft but remember they traded a lot to get Stafford.  

This ai major blow to the Rams and should not be swept under the rug. I could see them making a trade but look how fragile this position is to start with. They are better off trying to do a 3-4 prong approach and have the better blockers in there on passing situations. The WR1-2-3 spots will all be well utilized and 1-2TEs will see plenty of action. They simply will not be as strong running the ball now.  More pressure on Stafford to perform at a very high level. 

 
Lev Bell has not suffered any major injury of late that i know of. You gotta try and put an incentive laden contract together, one that will make him perform or be gone in camp. 

He would seem like the best of what they have on the streets. 

 
really depends on the severity, right? Are there different grades of torn v ruptured? IDK
Not sure there. I’m trying to think of examples of RBs with the injury. Leshoure and Foreman are all that come to mind and we honestly aren’t even sure if those players were any good prior to the injury. 

 
No, it's really not. That's the first thing that went through my mind. That's not a knee injury. That's a "we've never really seen a guy come back from that, have we?"
The next NFL RB to return to pre-Achilles form will be the first.  It's the reason I'm completely discounting Marlon Mack this year.  I'm just pretending he's not even on their roster anymore.

 
Henderson's got the best shot. I don't see any (current) FA as more than a body/JAG. That said, it's hard to put him above the Mike Davis/Chase Edmond level of "I guess he's the starting RB", and I wouldn't blame anyone that put the situation as one to completely avoid.
Couldn't agree less. Henderson was really good last year and he's in a very good offense with no competition. 

 
Couldn't agree less. Henderson was really good last year and he's in a very good offense with no competition. 
He was a middling RB2 through Week 10, which is fine if that's all you're expecting for 2021.  Akers had a potential ceiling that was as high as RB1 overall.

 
He was a middling RB2 through Week 10, which is fine if that's all you're expecting for 2021.  Akers had a potential ceiling that was as high as RB1 overall.
The chance of Akers leading the league was close to zero imo. If healthy, no reason Henderson isn't a RB1. Be very surprised if he wasn't.

 
a few WRs have come back from it (D Tomas & a couple other WR1s

unfortunately it seems like no elite RB has come back from it to play at a high level again 
Thomas didn't really come back, in any meaningful way. 

Has any receiver come back to the same pre-injury level?

 
Because he won't be in a timeshare with a guy who is better than him and an RB1 candidate?
He wasn't in a timeshare through Week 10 (the time frame I referred to above).  Akers was barely on the field until the last 1/3 of the season.  Again, Henderson was RB19 during the period of time that he dominated touches, which is approximately all he should be projected for this season.

 
Why do you think he will be better than he was last season in the same role on the same team with the same offense?
He was pretty effective when they used him. I had him last year and thought I hit gold early season but then for some reason they really scaled back his usage. Weeks 2-7 he was averaging 14 carries and 2 targets which was producing a 16 game pace of 1300/11. 

 
He wasn't in a timeshare through Week 10 (the time frame I referred to above).  Akers was barely on the field until the last 1/3 of the season.  Again, Henderson was RB19 during the period of time that he dominated touches, which is approximately all he should be projected for this season.
He didn't dominate touches though. Weeks 1-10, there were 5 games that he had <10 touches.

 
He wasn't in a timeshare through Week 10 (the time frame I referred to above).  Akers was barely on the field until the last 1/3 of the season.  Again, Henderson was RB19 during the period of time that he dominated touches, which is approximately all he should be projected for this season.
He was in a timeshare with Malcolm Brown for a while IIRC.

 
really depends on the severity, right? Are there different grades of torn v ruptured? IDK
Not really.  It's either torn or its not.  If it's not torn all the way through may actually be worse for future strength and subject to a complete tear later on.  But once it's torn its torn.  

I tore my achilles when I was 40.  Upon researching it I found it is the most common injury for active men between the ages of 35-45.  It eventually just gives up.  It was a terrible injury and I have never been the same.  It ruined my lunchtime pickup basketball career (the injury actually happened during a lunchtime pickup basketball game).   I have never been the same player since.  I was ready to make the leap to the afterwork pickup basketball league but never go my shot.  I was damaged goods never to be heard from again.

 
I'm only slightly cherry picking, but Henderson had 6 games with at least 12 rushing attempts - 88 carries for 446 yeards (5.1 per attempt).  If he weighs in around 18 touches per game, he should safely be considered a top 20 RB. 

🌹 😎

 
Best talent option: Bell

Best fit: Gurley reunion

I’d love to see: Frank Gore banging between the 20s and at the stripe

Overall, it’s a big  blow to the Rams but of all the positions to get hurt, this one is seemingly the easiest to survive. They may not be able to replace Akers but they can likely replace most of his production.

I wouldn’t rule out a trade either. If I’m the Rams I’m reaching out to other teams. 

 
Thomas didn't really come back, in any meaningful way

Has any receiver come back to the same pre-injury level?
Thomas tore his achilles twice.  Once was between his rookie and 2nd season (Feb 2011).  He came back fine from that for the 2011 season and was exceptional for most of his career.  He then tore it a second time in 2018 while playing for the Texans.  He didn't really come back from that tear.  

 
Watch this be Frank Gore's landing spot, its always Frank Gore. He's got 727 yards to pass Walter Payton, and I doubt his quitting until he gets there. 

 
Just to say - great discussion. Working through these discussions with other smart football folks is a huge help. Great job. 

 
Thomas tore his achilles twice.  Once was between his rookie and 2nd season (Feb 2011).  He came back fine from that for the 2011 season and was exceptional for most of his career.  He then tore it a second time in 2018 while playing for the Texans.  He didn't really come back from that tear.  
He was pretty much washed before that 2nd injury anyway. I don't think there is anything to learn from that outcome. 

Watch this be Frank Gore's landing spot, its always Frank Gore. He's got 727 yards to pass Walter Payton, and I doubt his quitting until he gets there. 
Very possible though Schefter tweeted the Rams don't plan to sign anyone.

 
Per PFF, Henderson played 25+ snaps in 7 games last season:

  • Game 2 - 29 snaps, 12/81/1 rushing + 2/40/0 receiving = 20.1 points in standard PPR
  • Game 3 - 34 snaps, 20/114/1 rushing + 1/6/0 receiving = 18.4 points
  • Game 5 - 29 snaps, 15/38/1 rushing + 3/30/1 receiving = 21.8 points
  • Game 6 - 32 snaps, 14/88/0 rushing + 0/4/0 receiving (not sure how he got the yards without a catch, but both PFR and PFF show it that way) = 9.2 points
  • Game 7 - 40 snaps, 15/63/0 rushing + 2/13/0 receiving = 9.6 points
  • Game 10 - 33 snaps, 8/5/0 rushing + 2/4/0 receiving = 0.9 points
  • Game 15 - 31 snaps, 12/62/0 rushing + 0/0/0 receiving = 6.2 points
He started off pretty strong, and he really only had one bad IRL game in that stretch, game 10 at TB, a strong defense.

PFF graded him better than Akers in most categories:

  • Overall: Henderson (80.4) > Akers (75.7)
  • Running: Henderson (79.2) > Akers (77.6)
  • Receiving: Henderson (67.9) > Akers (56.7)
  • Pass blocking: Henderson (83.5) > Akers (44.8)
  • Run blocking: Akers (71.4) > Henderson (59.3)
Henderson was actually pretty good last season overall:

  • 4.5 ypc, compared to Akers at 4.4
  • 5 rushing TDs in 138 rushing attempts, compared to Akers with 4 in 191 rushing attempts
  • 40 rushing first downs in 138 rushing attempts, compared to Akers with 41 in 191 rushing attempts
  • 20 runs of 10+ yards in 138 rushing attempts, compared to Akers with 16 in 191 rushing attempts
  • 2.7 yards after contact per attempt, compared to 2.96 for Akers
  • 22 missed tackles forced in 138 rushing attempts, compared to Akers with 27 in 191 rushing attempts
  • 0 fumbles, compared to 1 for Akers
  • 9.9 yards per reception, compared to 12.4 for Akers
  • 10.1 yards after catch per reception, compared to 9.6 for Akers
  • 1.08 yards per route run, compared to 1.14 for Akers
  • 8 receiving first downs in 22 targets, compared to Akers with 5 in 17 targets
  • 0 drops in 22 targets, compared to 1 drop in 17 targets for Akers
All data above from PFF and/or PFR.

Overall, these metrics suggest there might not be much of a dropoff from Akers to Henderson if Henderson can handle higher volume for a full season.

 
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