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Cam Akers torn achilles - 7.20.21 - What do you see as the effects? (1 Viewer)

King of the Jungle said:
Adrian Peterson played with Stafford last year and if he has anything left in the tank he seems like the logical addition. 
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His expected yards over average behind a good line were (-), and he’ll look worse behind the Rams line. But given the list of unsigned FA he’d be a good choice if they can’t swing a trade.

Might just wait and sign someone after cut downs as there are a couple decent candidates on the bubble. But this backfield belongs to Henderson IMO regardless and I’d plan accordingly. I imagine he’ll in the Edmonds/Robinson ADP range if not higher.

 
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Hate it for Cam, but we are all looking at Henderson on our roster like Moxon's dad looked at his wife when Lance Harbor went down.

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
It’s always relevant. I get your point, but some folks see a 1st round investment as a reason to hold & see what happens rather than sell for anything you can get. 

On another note, while I have nothing invested in him, I know that when I’ve had a player go down with injury I find the vultures a bit difficult to stomach.

At least let me get my bearings before coming down my row trying to capitalize on my misfortune.
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Emotionally and irrationally, sunk cost is relevant.

From a factual reality view, it does not change. No future action you take, whether it’s next week or next year or 2033, whether it’s for what you perceive is fair value or pennies on the dollar, changes your  sunk cost.

Sunk costs are excluded from future decisions because the cost will remain the same regardless of the outcome of a decision. It’s completely irrelevant to the decision making process except as a hinderance to doing the needful thing.

 
BobbyLayne said:
His expected yards over average behind a good line were (-), and he’ll look worse behind the Rams line. But given the list of unsigned FA he’d be a good choice if they can’t swing a trade.

Might just wait and sign someone after cut downs as there are a couple decent candidates on the bubble. But this backfield belongs to Henderson IMO regardless and I’d plan accordingly. I imagine he’ll in the Edmonds/Robinson ADP range if not higher.
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I think Henderson will lead a committee, but will overdrafted if his ADP reaches 3rd-4th round IMO.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Emotionally and irrationally, sunk cost is relevant.

From a factual reality view, it does not change. No future action you take, whether it’s next week or next year or 2033, whether it’s for what you perceive is fair value or pennies on the dollar, changes your  sunk cost.

Sunk costs are excluded from future decisions because the cost will remain the same regardless of the outcome of a decision. It’s completely irrelevant to the decision making process except as a hinderance to doing the needful thing.
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I completely agree.

and people do it anyway, all the time. lol

 
Gally said:
I completely disagree with this statement.  What you paid for a player is irrelevant after that fact.  It doesn't matter if he was a first round pick anymore now that he tore his achilles (or whatever change has occurred).  If you try and use that as justification for not making a deal based on current situation you are doing yourself a disservice.  I am not saying he isn't still worth what you paid (not necessarily talking about Akers situation) but that has nothing to do with any deals moving forward.  That cost is already sunk.  
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Sorry if i was unclear. I 100% agree with every word of this. 

But to some owners, they will hold based on sunk costs, because the upside of a successful recovery is 1 lost season. while the downside of selling low is whatever you got in return.

I am 10000% not recommending this as a philosophy. I’m saying what my experience has been trying to buy high pick players immediately after injury.

There’s no question that you cannot calculate sunk costs into a deal. 

but people do. 

 
TS Garp said:
We can agree to disagree. The Lions should actively be trying to hoard picks and increase their chances of having the 1st pick in the 2022 draft.  This would do both.  Yes, it's brutal but it also works - many smart teams have done it, including the Browns and look at them now.  
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I don’t think it’s the issue of collecting picks that people see an issue with. It’s the image of a team that signs a free agent and trades him a month later. That player just made a commitment to your team. I’m not sure it’s even allowed by the CBA but if so it’s just not something an NFL team is going to do. Teams also don’t go into seasons not trying to win, even if it’s not realistic. 
if they still had Kerryon Johnson and could have traded him for a 4th or 5th - that would work.

 
Henderson was RB 15 after week 10 last year. That doesn’t mean much we had a lot of really good running backs who were injured last year. But I would say right now he’s RB 22. I don’t think he’s going to get up past ADP60. 

speed B+

elusiveness B+

receiving B

power C

he's a good back, not a 3 down, lean on him guy,  but he’ll likely be the lead back on a good offense.

they'll sign a backup but probably a limited market trying to land a potential RB1. 

 
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BobbyLayne said:
Henderson was RB 15 after week 10 last year. That doesn’t mean much we had a lot of really good running backs who were injured last year. But I would say right now he’s RB 22. I don’t think he’s going to get up past ADP60. 

speed B+

elusiveness B+

receiving B

power C

he's a good back, not a 3 down, lean on him guy,  but he’ll likely be the lead back on a good offense.

they'll sign a backup but probably a limited market trying to land a potential RB1. 
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I think he is a good back as well and has upside. The factors that prevent some of that upside is a pass heavy offense and his ability to stay healthy. I think the Rams like him and he will lead the committee, but they have also seen him slowed down by injury the last two seasons and will give him some help to try to prevent that.

 
to RBs- CMC, Gibson, Chubb, Elliott, A. Jones, Harris, Cook, Mixon , Barkley, Taylor, Henry, Ekeler. in no particular order. Don't even like Mixon in there. but DH is better than the next level such as Miles Sanders, D. Monty, Helaire, Swift, Dobbins, Carson, Jacobs ( maybe).

what's not to like about DH being a top 13-15 RB? I think it's a LOCK. that second level of RBs I mentioned won't get the volume that DH will, not even close. If there's one I'd add to the first level, would be Gaskin. but DH begins the season, IMO, as a bonafide top 15 RB with a solid chance to move to within the top 10.

stat wise, he outperformed Akers last season. this isn't Trent Richardson taking  over the reins here. This isn't a truck driver-turned-RB. dude's got talent.

 
It's amazing a 2nd year RB drafted in the 2nd round a year ago, slotted as the RB1 an coming off a strong end of season and looked upon to carry a lot of the load, 250 touches seemed easy as a projection, 3rd round albeit some thought the 3rd round was high but he Akers was getting a 3rd round grade and he is done for the season, one of the 1st 30-40 skill position players off the board in most FF drafts and everyone thinks the Rams just keep rolling along?

I'll take those bets right now. 

State what win total you had for Los Angeles who have been the West Division Winner for a lot of pundits and writers out there, it's not like the Rams were being overlooked prior to this injury. Many had them right after the Bucs in the NFC so you have to project them as 12-13 game winners. After this injury, are you as confident?

MoP is not and I am stating for the record 12-5, now 10-7 and potential Wildcard but I see this as a major set back for their plans of playing in their backyard for the Super Bowl this year. 

 
Gally said:
Not really.  It's either torn or its not.  If it's not torn all the way through may actually be worse for future strength and subject to a complete tear later on.  But once it's torn its torn.  

I tore my achilles when I was 40.  Upon researching it I found it is the most common injury for active men between the ages of 35-45.  It eventually just gives up.  It was a terrible injury and I have never been the same.  It ruined my lunchtime pickup basketball career (the injury actually happened during a lunchtime pickup basketball game).   I have never been the same player since.  I was ready to make the leap to the afterwork pickup basketball league but never go my shot.  I was damaged goods never to be heard from again.
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I wanted to use the laugh emoji.  Sorry you went through this but the way you wrote it up was extremely funny.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
It's amazing a 2nd year RB drafted in the 2nd round a year ago, slotted as the RB1 an coming off a strong end of season and looked upon to carry a lot of the load, 250 touches seemed easy as a projection, 3rd round albeit some thought the 3rd round was high but he Akers was getting a 3rd round grade and he is done for the season, one of the 1st 30-40 skill position players off the board in most FF drafts and everyone thinks the Rams just keep rolling along?

I'll take those bets right now. 

State what win total you had for Los Angeles who have been the West Division Winner for a lot of pundits and writers out there, it's not like the Rams were being overlooked prior to this injury. Many had them right after the Bucs in the NFC so you have to project them as 12-13 game winners. After this injury, are you as confident?

MoP is not and I am stating for the record 12-5, now 10-7 and potential Wildcard but I see this as a major set back for their plans of playing in their backyard for the Super Bowl this year. 
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You’re conflating fantasy football and real football.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
You’re conflating fantasy football and real football.
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Was going to suggest the same thing. Akers ranked 84th in the league last year in YFS. He had 6 more yards than Frank Gore. Derrick Henry had close to triple the yardage Akers did. I personally don’t feel this is the death knell for the Rams season as being suggested. 

 
BassNBrew said:
I wanted to use the laugh emoji.  Sorry you went through this but the way you wrote it up was extremely funny.
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That's what I was going for.  I mean comparing me at 40 to a 22ish yr old  pro NFL players chances of coming back was meant to be funny....hahaha

 
Dr. Octopus said:
You’re conflating fantasy football and real football.
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That's right! Because great fantasy football players understand real football. 

I rarely approach it from a FF POV if you're new here, I prefer to discuss the real world and then figure out how the skill positions fit in from there. 

 
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Ministry of Pain said:
That's right! Because great fantasy football players understand real football. 

I rarely approach it from a FF POV if you're new here, I prefer to discuss the real world and then figure out how the skill positions fit in from there. 
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If you're looking at it from a "real world" perspective, you should know that RBs do not move NFL lines. The only team where I think the Vegas W/L total would change if they lost their starting RB would be Tennessee and that's because they are so dependent on Henry.

I'm not saying it doesn't hurt the Rams at all to lose Akers, but generally speaking another RB(s) (Henderson?) will start instead make up most of that "loss" of production - and/or the Rams will pass more.

Look at a few years ago when Gurley was the best RB in the league and went down late in the season. A street free agent, CJ Anderson, came in and the Rams did not skip a beat.

 
fruity pebbles said:
I wouldn't. Straight up maybe. 
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FWIW I offered Hunt straight up for Akers in two leagues yesterday after reading this thread. One team has not responded. The other team has Chubb but is also really deep at RB so could argue Hunt makes sense or not but he politely declined. I told him I'd kick in a third but have not heard back.

 
Since there has been some discussion about Akers' long term prospects in here, I got this via email from Fantasy Football Today:

As for Akers' long-term potential … this definitely complicates it. Ruptured Achilles are some of the toughest injuries for professional athletes to come back from, and the history for running backs is very, very tough. 

It's hard to find a comprehensive list of running backs who have suffered an Achilles rupture, but I think I have a pretty definitive list and it is … ugly. So, so ugly:

  • LenDale White, 2010 (age 26) -- Never played in the NFL again
  • Andre Brown, 2010 (24) -- Out of the league by 2013
  • Mikel Leshoure, 2011 (21) -- Out of the league by 2013
  • Earnest Graham, 2011 (31) -- Never played again
  • Kendall Hunter, 2012 (24) -- Played 16 games, had 80 touches in 2013, never played again
  • Beanie Wells, 2013 (26) -- Never played again 
  • Vick Ballard, 2014 (24) -- Had torn ACL in 2013, Achilles in 2014, never played again
  • Arian Foster, 2015 (29) -- Cut midseason following year, never played again
  • Branden Oliver, 2016 (25) -- Eight games the following season, never played again
  • D'Onta Foreman, 2017 (21) -- Played one game in 2018, out of league in 2019, returned as reserve in 2020
  • Isaiah Crowell, 2019 (26) -- Out of league
  • Marlon Mack, 2020 (24) -- We're still waiting to see, but … 
It's about as bad as you could possibly imagine, but it's also not quite as bad as all that makes it seem. The truth is, the sample size of running backs who suffered a ruptured Achilles is very small, and you can at least make the case that Akers' combination of age, talent, and draft capital make him stand alone from this group. He'll get more opportunities than a guy like Ballard did coming back from his injury, due to his place on the depth chart and how much the Rams invested in him in the draft. 

Of course, it's also easier to say that the likes of Foreman or Leshoure just weren't that good, or that Wells and Foster were already on their way out by the time of their injuries after we know how they fared. 

And you can point to the likes of Demaryius Thomas and Terrell Suggs or go cross-sport to Kevin Durant and find examples of players who came back from this injury and continued to thrive. This isn't a zero-percent chance kind of injury, after all.

But, look for whatever evidence you can find -- this piece I wrote back in 2015 about Achilles tears in the NBA, say, or actual research from medical/scientific journals written by people who are actually smart -- and it mostly points to the same, troubling, but inescapable conclusion: A ruptured Achilles is one of the worst injuries a high-level athlete can come back from. There have been medical advances that make it more likely, but all things considered, this is just a really tough situation.
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I am happy that I don't have any shares of Akers in my dynasty leagues, and I'm not interested in acquiring him.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Since there has been some discussion about Akers' long term prospects in here, I got this via email from Fantasy Football Today:

I am happy that I don't have any shares of Akers in my dynasty leagues, and I'm not interested in acquiring him.
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There is a more extensive list than this if you go back further in time but still the same results. The RB does not come back from it and perform anywhere near what they did before the injury, if they get a chance to perform at all.

I haven't seen any data on this from college RB though who are younger. Maybe there are some examples of younger players recovering from it that I just don't know about. I know when researching ACLs that this was the case. A higher rate of recovery for younger players.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
That's right! Because great fantasy football players understand real football. 

I rarely approach it from a FF POV if you're new here, I prefer to discuss the real world and then figure out how the skill positions fit in from there. 
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My own instinct is in real NFL I'd rather lose a RB than a LB, or an OL, which are far more difficult to mask. Your over the top 'taking all wagers' position on this is what I find most curious. Maybe you're right, maybe you're wrong. Personally I didn't view this as a team built around Akers. Then again, I'm higher on their other RBs and FA prospects when camp hasn't even begun yet.

 
BigJim® said:
My own instinct is in real NFL I'd rather lose a RB than a LB, or an OL, which are far more difficult to mask. Your over the top 'taking all wagers' position on this is what I find most curious. Maybe you're right, maybe you're wrong. Personally I didn't view this as a team built around Akers. Then again, I'm higher on their other RBs and FA prospects when camp hasn't even begun yet.
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Not to mention there's no way to declare a winner of any such bet as we would have no idea how many games the loss of Akers actually cost the Rams. If they did "only" win 10 games this season - how would we know they would have won 12 if Akers was healthy?

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Not to mention there's no way to declare a winner of any such bet as we would have no idea how many games the loss of Akers actually cost the Rams. If they did "only" win 10 games this season - how would we know they would have won 12 if Akers was healthy?
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Right. Just an odd 'this was certainly black, and it is now certainly white', in a topic that is always gray and subject to many variables.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Since there has been some discussion about Akers' long term prospects in here, I got this via email from Fantasy Football Today:

I am happy that I don't have any shares of Akers in my dynasty leagues, and I'm not interested in acquiring him.
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Wish I had seen this before wasting an hour detailing this out in the other thread.  :doh:

Even so, context is important. The vast majority of names were not highly drafted and basically backups that may or may not have filled in occasionally (Ballard, Brown, Hunter, Oliver, Foreman), old (Foster, Graham) or guys that had already flamed out and on their way out of the league (Crow, Wells, Len-Whale.)

The only real comp with the combo of draft pedigree and youth is Leshoure who also had drug issues. Maybe we’ll see if Mack can come back to better judge Akers chances but he’s basically already lost his starting job to Taylor so don’t know how much we’ll learn out of his return.

 
Buckna said:
Maybe we’ll see if Mack can come back to better judge Akers chances but he’s basically already lost his starting job to Taylor so don’t know how much we’ll learn out of his return.
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It’s a fair measure. 

So many articles are listing historic returns from RBs (and other players) without acknowledging the passage of time. Medicine improves all the time.

I’d mentioned this in the Mack topic with Kevin Durant as an example. Yes, basketball is apples & oranges to football, but playing superstar minutes on hardwood, running & taking jumpers can’t be easier on the Achilles than a RB on grass/turf, can it? 

I recall a time when a basketball player would be considered toast after a torn Achilles too. 

It’s a horrible injury to be sure, but he’s young, and there is a chance. I’ll keep my fingers crossed. Seems like a good kid. 🤞🏼 

 
Biabreakable said:
There is a more extensive list than this if you go back further in time but still the same results. The RB does not come back from it and perform anywhere near what they did before the injury, if they get a chance to perform at all.

I haven't seen any data on this from college RB though who are younger. Maybe there are some examples of younger players recovering from it that I just don't know about. I know when researching ACLs that this was the case. A higher rate of recovery for younger players.
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Donta Foreman comes to mind, same result.

 
-jb- said:
Let's say you drafted him as a rookie. Probably a first round pick. Now what? Odds say he's toast, and you won't have him for a year regardless. Gimme a third and I smash accept.
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I wound up fairly easily on the pick side of a similar debate when the return was an early second, but I’d probably pay a 3rd to stash him on IR and gamble on the as-yet-unseen combo of youth/talent/medical advances for an rb comeback from this injury.

I agree it’s unlikely but at the price of a 3rd rounder that’s priced in

 
Mikel Leshoure (Lions, 2012-14) was a 2nd rounder who tore his achilles in TC his rookie year. He was suspended the first 2 G of year two. Ran for 100 his first game as a pro and had a productive year, 798 rushing over 1K YFS & 9 TDs.

Next year he had another serious foot injury (Lisfranc, fractured mid foot) and played only 2 G. 

Never played again. But he did look pretty good the one healthy year and his subsequent injury (which is nearly as devastating as Achilles) was unrelated to his first. 

 
BobbyLayne said:
Mikel Leshoure (Lions, 2012-14) was a 2nd rounder who tore his achilles in TC his rookie year. He was suspended the first 2 G of year two. Ran for 100 his first game as a pro and had a productive year, 798 rushing over 1K YFS & 9 TDs.

Next year he had another serious foot injury (Lisfranc, fractured mid foot) and played only 2 G. 

Never played again. But he did look pretty good the one healthy year and his subsequent injury (which is nearly as devastating as Achilles) was unrelated to his first. 
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addendum

To quote Silvio Dante, “timeline got effed up”

  • 2011 - tore his achilles in TC
  • 2012 - 100 yards rushing first game, 798 for season, 1K YFS + 9 TDs
  • per the linked (archived) player thread, he averaged 3.8 and looked like a plodder. whereas he was explosive in college & as a rookie in minicamp and TC, he effectively lost his job bc Joique Bell outplayed him down the stretch. his volume was tied more to his draft capital than his performance.
  • while it was a subsequent injury (broken foot) that was the straw that broke the camels back, he was never the same after he came back from the ruptured achilles.
  • thus happened a decade ago; some claim our understanding and surgical procedures have changed. maybe, but as best I can tell, the next RB who comes back strong after an achilles will be the first. The Colts have a data point in Marlon Mack slotted as their RB3 headed into training camp.
 
The Vikings rookie RB out of Iowa State, Kene Nwangwu, had a good enough career after his early 2017 achilles rupture to be drafted in the 4th round. Ton of caveats - he’s a KR who never had more than 61 carries. Still, he retained his best attribute (sub-4.3 speed) after the injury. Just another data point to monitor for the folks trying to decide between dumping Akers for a 3rd or holding to see if he defies history.

 
BobbyLayne said:
The Vikings rookie RB out of Iowa State, Kene Nwangwu, had a good enough career after his early 2017 achilles rupture to be drafted in the 4th round. Ton of caveats - he’s a KR who never had more than 61 carries. Still, he retained his best attribute (sub-4.3 speed) after the injury. Just another data point to monitor for the folks trying to decide between dumping Akers for a 3rd or holding to see if he defies history.
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Maybe you were giving an extreme example, but if I'm going to sell for a 3rd, I'm keeping him and risking. If there's more compensation then I'll have a debate. Good research on this RB though. Haven't heard about him.

 
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:
Maybe you were giving an extreme example, but if I'm going to sell for a 3rd, I'm keeping him and risking. If there's more compensation then I'll have a debate. Good research on this RB though. Haven't heard about him.
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 then you're keeping and risking.

from what I'm hearing there is currently no market for Cam Akers. maybe down the road, when the news isn't fresh, there will be. but if you're an Akers owner and looking to make a move today, you're asking the buyer to suspend disbelief. because you're asking that buyer to believe Cam Akers will be the first RB in the 100+ year history of the NFL to come back from that specific injury to become relevant again. 

 
Arian Foster was a guy who played after an achilles rupture.

this is another not especially promising example bc he was cut by the Dolphins in October and subsequently retired. however, my recollection is he looked in PS and times during the first month of the season.

(just looked it up, had 100 YFS Week 1 but injuries and then petered out, cut halfway through the year)

odds are against Akers but hoping he is the exception. just terrible circumstance, right on the cusp of becoming a star.

 
I remember this coming up in the D'Onta Foreman discussion but the real wildcard in trying to search for a decent comeback comp is Curtis Martin. 

There is a possibility he tore his achilles in college.  It was a different era and injuries, especially in college, weren't nearly as heavily reported on so it is unclear.  Officially his season was cut short during his sophomore year in college for an achilles injury, but there are no specifics as to what the achilles injury was.  It could have just been tendonitis.

 
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BobbyLayne said:
The Vikings rookie RB out of Iowa State, Kene Nwangwu, had a good enough career after his early 2017 achilles rupture to be drafted in the 4th round. Ton of caveats - he’s a KR who never had more than 61 carries. Still, he retained his best attribute (sub-4.3 speed) after the injury. Just another data point to monitor for the folks trying to decide between dumping Akers for a 3rd or holding to see if he defies history.
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Thanks for the info on this. I am a Vikings fan and I didn't know that.

I did do a search on achilles injuries in college football and I didn't find much but I am sure there are some other examples out there.

The problem with looking at Marlon Mack as far as his performance after the injury is going to be Johnathan Taylor.

 
This Twitter thread is a really good breakdown of why we shouldn’t use the Durant recovery as a comp to Akers

https://twitter.com/eturnerff_pt/status/1419400180202315777?s=21

tldr

- Durant had unlimited money and resources down to a live in personal trainer who had no other responsibilities other than rehabbing Durant 

- Durant took 18 months off after his injury 

- Durant still only played <50% of the games this year as he’s on major load management and has dealt with a couple maybe related lower body injuries this year.

 
I'm not giving up a 3rd, I'd rather draft Chuba Hubbard/Javian Hawkins/Elijiah Mitchell and possibly lottery out this year than wait 2 years for the same odds.

 
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