VBD Discussion - How Do You Calculate "Value"? (1 Viewer)

I am trying to learn more about creating my own VBD draft sheet.  I downloaded the FBG VBD and input my league's scoring system and noticed the "Value" column had much higher values than I would have expected to be calculated.  For example, CMC's projected pts = 392 and his Value = 221.  That suggest to me that the average RB pts used for this calculation = 171 (392 - 171 = 221).  To get an average of 171 I had to go all the way down to RB 70.  If I looked at just the average of the top say 30 RBs (starter level for league with 2RBs and a flex), the average is 257 giving CMC a value of 135 which is a big difference.   So my first question is, when looking at value, do you think its better to look at the average starter (a 12 team league with a flex will typically have 30 RBs starting each week) or the average drafted (a 12 team league will have roughly 66 RBs drafted)?  

I also looked at last year's results to look at positional value for top 24 overall non-QBs. Using the pts above average starter pts calculation the top 24 overall included 7 RBs, 15 WRs and 2 TEs.  Using the FBG VBD the top 24 values for 2021 include 14 RBs, 9 WRs and 1 TE.  This suggest to me that the FBG VBD formula and projections may be overly optimistic for RBs skewing their average  and making it appear that you are better off drafting a RB in the 2nd round once the first 6-7 RBs are drafted.  For example, the 12th ranked RB on the VBD file is Swift with a projected 279 pts, but when I look back 5 years using same scoring the actual 12th ranked RBs never have more than 240 pts.  The top 5 matched up much closer with elite top 5 RBs in my league scoring 300+ and the VBD showing 6 RBs scoring 300+ for 2021, but after the top 6 the drop-off is often much more dramatic in reality than the FBG projections.   

So was hoping to get some thoughts on approaches to best way to calculate value for VBD drafting and how best to analyze the results compared with prior year outcomes.

Thanks.   

To answer question one - look at the average drafted.  

Question 2 - i rarely have a sleeper who has been in the league more than three years.  I'll take a chance on youth and fresh legs over someone like Mark Ingram who slides a round or two, then you have buyers remourse in week 4.

FairWarning said:

To answer question one - look at the average drafted.  

Question 2 - i rarely have a sleeper who has been in the league more than three years.  I'll take a chance on youth and fresh legs over someone like Mark Ingram who slides a round or two, then you have buyers remourse in week 4.

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I agree with the second point. When there is a veteran outside of the age prime on a discount,  it almost never pans out the. There's a lot of players drafted in the mid rounds based on what they have done and lots of players being drafted for what we think they can do. I want the guys on the come up, not the decline.

Ilov80s said:

I agree with the second point. When there is a veteran outside of the age prime on a discount,  it almost never pans out the. There's a lot of players drafted in the mid rounds based on what they have done and lots of players being drafted for what we think they can do. I want the guys on the come up, not the decline.

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Plus in a salary cap league, most teams will like to see what the younger (and cheaper) player has.

perceived value. it isn't value until the season has played and you can assess where the chips fell. 

my  that no one asked for... draft the guys you've targetted whenever you want them, from highest ranked to lowest. 

D_Knows said:

I am trying to learn more about creating my own VBD draft sheet.  I downloaded the FBG VBD and input my league's scoring system and noticed the "Value" column had much higher values than I would have expected to be calculated.  For example, CMC's projected pts = 392 and his Value = 221.  That suggest to me that the average RB pts used for this calculation = 171 (392 - 171 = 221).  To get an average of 171 I had to go all the way down to RB 70.  If I looked at just the average of the top say 30 RBs (starter level for league with 2RBs and a flex), the average is 257 giving CMC a value of 135 which is a big difference.   So my first question is, when looking at value, do you think its better to look at the average starter (a 12 team league with a flex will typically have 30 RBs starting each week) or the average drafted (a 12 team league will have roughly 66 RBs drafted)?  

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I think its best to set the baseline as the worst starter. So the RB 30 baseline would be better for your purposes than RB 70 is. I believe you can adjust that with the tool.

If you are doing a start up draft that is deep, maybe you want to set the baseline to something lower than that, but for the most part I think you should be using worst starter for VBD.

D_Knows said:

I also looked at last year's results to look at positional value for top 24 overall non-QBs. Using the pts above average starter pts calculation the top 24 overall included 7 RBs, 15 WRs and 2 TEs.  Using the FBG VBD the top 24 values for 2021 include 14 RBs, 9 WRs and 1 TE.  This suggest to me that the FBG VBD formula and projections may be overly optimistic for RBs skewing their average  and making it appear that you are better off drafting a RB in the 2nd round once the first 6-7 RBs are drafted.  For example, the 12th ranked RB on the VBD file is Swift with a projected 279 pts, but when I look back 5 years using same scoring the actual 12th ranked RBs never have more than 240 pts.  The top 5 matched up much closer with elite top 5 RBs in my league scoring 300+ and the VBD showing 6 RBs scoring 300+ for 2021, but after the top 6 the drop-off is often much more dramatic in reality than the FBG projections.   

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I think the main reason you are seeing a difference here is because the players do not perform the same as their projections. So you have a lot of players being projected to play most of their games but when you compare that to what actually happened, many players missed games due to injury or other factors and that is why there is a difference.

D_Knows said:

So was hoping to get some thoughts on approaches to best way to calculate value for VBD drafting and how best to analyze the results compared with prior year outcomes.

Thanks.   

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One other thing I use VBD is for figuring out the value of a roster spot for your specific league scoring and starting requirements. For this you want to set the baseline as the lowest roster spot. You are trying to find the replacement value of a roster spot and use that as a guide for if a player you have on your roster is worth keeping or if they are below replacement value of free agents.

D_Knows said:

I am trying to learn more about creating my own VBD draft sheet.  I downloaded the FBG VBD and input my league's scoring system and noticed the "Value" column had much higher values than I would have expected to be calculated.  For example, CMC's projected pts = 392 and his Value = 221.  That suggest to me that the average RB pts used for this calculation = 171 (392 - 171 = 221).  To get an average of 171 I had to go all the way down to RB 70.

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It sounds like you're using the average of all starting RBs as the baseline (the average of RB1-RB70). I usually use the last starter as the baseline (the projection for RB70), and FBG is probably doing that. So just look at CMC minus the projection of RB70. Probably that would get you closer to RB30.

(Rather than "last starter", they might be looking at something like "best available in round 12 of the draft" or "the level of production you can expect to get off the waiver wire".)

D_Knows said:

I also looked at last year's results to look at positional value for top 24 overall non-QBs. Using the pts above average starter pts calculation the top 24 overall included 7 RBs, 15 WRs and 2 TEs.  Using the FBG VBD the top 24 values for 2021 include 14 RBs, 9 WRs and 1 TE.  This suggest to me that the FBG VBD formula and projections may be overly optimistic for RBs skewing their average  and making it appear that you are better off drafting a RB in the 2nd round once the first 6-7 RBs are drafted.  For example, the 12th ranked RB on the VBD file is Swift with a projected 279 pts, but when I look back 5 years using same scoring the actual 12th ranked RBs never have more than 240 pts.  The top 5 matched up much closer with elite top 5 RBs in my league scoring 300+ and the VBD showing 6 RBs scoring 300+ for 2021, but after the top 6 the drop-off is often much more dramatic in reality than the FBG projections.   

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Does it line up better if you look at ppg? This season has an extra game which would inflate all the numbers, and also projections often underestimate the number of missed games (which matters most as RB since RBs miss the most games).

If you are using Joe's formula it pushes RB's up a bit, and rightfully so. Important to remember it is a tool. You can modify the baselines. Every league has its own set of things to consider. Value vs ADP is the first thing I consider. Find the guys you can get a round later then you value them, but a round earlier then they are drafted. Target those guys, then figure who you need in the other rounds to make your team. When Jefferson or Harris come up at the end of the second if you know you can get a WR or RB later then you know to who to take. 

Get asked to fill a spot a couple of hours before a draft. Taking chalk the first 7-8 rounds will put you in the hunt. It's a game. Injuries can take you out of it, and the guy that drafts a PK in the 3rd round will win. I have been using that VBD spread sheet for 17 years and I have never felt bad walking out of a draft.