12 team redraft ppr- TE strategy/ other VOLS thoughts- two questions! (1 Viewer)

12 team full PPR League is 1QB/2RB/2WR/2Flex/1TE/DST/K- hosted on ESPN.

I'm drafting 11th in typical snake draft.

Actual TE question: Where would you be targeting TE in this league drafting 11th?

I've been putting a lot of time into preparing a draft strategy, creating VOLS spreadsheets and all kinds of (probably wacky) things. This is my "home" league with my son/brother/nephew etc. so bragging rights are key. I think I would care a lot less if it was for $50 against people I don't know on line. This is our third year- I'm a little new to this but enjoy the heck out of preparing.

A few things keep coming up that I'm not really happy about, most annoyingly at TE.

Drafting at 11, TE is a wasteland. It irks me to no end that Kelce will be gone at 1.11, Waller and Kittle are both a reach at 2.02 with zero chance they're making it to 3.11. I've run the numbers and there's actually a case to be made for reaching at 2.02 for Waller based on VOLS, the way that I've calculated it. But that puts a TON of pressure on nailing my WR or RB picks later on in the draft. Most likely WR would get pushed. But if Diggs makes it to me, he can't be passed up IMO.

Andrews, Hockensen and Pitts are a HUGE Reach at 3.11 and 4.02. Andrews is going a few picks after that according to live draft trends but the VOLS numbers say that any of these 3 guys are a worse value there than Waller at 2.02. None of that tier is likely to make it back to me at 5.11. Hock is close, I suppose that's my dream scenario.

At 5.11, Godert will likely not make it back to me. I guess there's a chance but even then, Ertz still on the team? Yikes. Fant has too much target competition and iffy QB situation and Tonyan is a HUGE TD regression candidate thought with Rodgers coming back I might take my shot here but that's almost a 2 round reach based on his ADP there. 

At 7.11/ 8.02 I'm all the way out on Logan Thomas and Gesicki in this price range and have similar queasy feelings about everybody else below that range other than Higbee, Trautman, Everett and Firkser at their costs. I guess I'm clogging up two roster spots? I will probably reach for Higbee either here or in the 9th. I'm sick just thinking about it.

I have been sitting on this for about a month or two and it's been irritating me. The other thing that bugs me about drafting 11th is that according to VOLS and projections, there is next to no drop off in projected value at cost in the few picks after me versus before me seems pretty disgusting.

The difference between pick 2.02 and 2.12 in effective value for the cost of the pick has almost zero drop, further conveying advantage to the top of the draft. It's likely less than 1.5 points per week (Hopkins vs Waller- or Eckler vs Mixon). The same lack of change happens in the 4th. Lockett versus Cooper/Evans? There's almost zero difference in projection. All of the value drop seems to be happening in the handful of picks before mine. 

Thankfully there are a few folks in my league that usually make some questionable picks but the 2 players picking ahead of me are probably the two sharpest drafters in our league so I have little expectation of great values passing through them to me. 

Next question:

I've been mocking rosters at my draft spot and using ADP and VOLS, it's clear that the best projection I can get is to not draft a 3rd RB until after I'm done filling other (starting roster) spots. Here's my question though. If I draft 4 WRs in my first 6-8 picks, a lot of the upside WRs I like later in the draft are guys I should probably just pass on to put a lot of chips on other positions that might pan out. I'm not suggesting drafting DST or K in the 10th, this is more about how much more efficient WRs are at their draft spot in terms of their projection and how to responsibly leverage that.

If I push my team toward the projection of 4 higher end WRs shouldn't I be drafting only 5 max WRs OR Maybe only 4?

You are really overcomplicating this.  Put in the time to create a combined draft board.  That is where your effort should go.  Once you have that the draft is easy.  Take the guy at the top of your board when it's your turn.  Don't force any particular position.  You only get in trouble when that happens.  

To answer your specific questions, in a 1 TE league without a TE premium I wouldn't worry about forcing a TE.  Let the draft come to you.  You can make up the deficit of missing out on Kelce/Waller/Kittle by hitting on your other picks and there are always TE's that can be serviceable and will finish top 10.  Nobody saw Logan Thomas coming last year.  There are always TE's that come to the surface.

Question #2: WR's are plentiful with many high upside guys available later in the draft that have decent chances of ascending over their draft position.  This surplus of quality choices should factor into your combined draft board which will allow you to draft your optimum team based on the effort you put into those rankings.   

Thank you, that's helpful. 

If you're going to start 4 WRs then it's fine to draft a bunch. Probably at least 6, maybe more depending on roster size. There are bye weeks and injuries, and it's not likely that every single pick of yours will hit.

At TE, you could try thinking about things in the opposite direction. If you wait until the last round to draft a TE, what guys might be there? It depends on how many teams draft more than one TE, but I'd be surprised if Trautman, Everett, and Firkser were all gone. If you're comfortable waiting, then it's easier to let the draft come to you and take players who are reasonable values rather than forcing a TE pick.