2021 Shark Strategy for PPR Redraft by Draft Positions 5-8 (1 Viewer)

This is a subject I spend time on every preseason - developing my strategy for approaching redraft snake draft format. I find that often my strategy shifts from early/middle/late positions 

Using PPR performance scoring, ,1/2 PaYd, .1/1 Ru/ReYd 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 FL, and current ADP, what do you see as the best strategy by position this year? 

Three topics. This one is for picks 5-8

1. 1-4, "the perfect draft" first 5 picks (by player or position)

2. 5-8, "the perfect draft" first 5 picks (by player or position)

3. 9-12, "the perfect draft" first 5 picks (by player or position)

Follow-up - does draft position alter your strategy? Would you take a WR1 from anywhere 1-12?  Would you be comfortable going WR-WR from 12 or RB-RB from 1? 

Or do you have different strategies for different draft positions? 

Are there certain spots you're more likely to take an elite TE in the early rounds? 

Seems like CMC is the universal 1.01, and Cook 1.02, so I'd think "Hero RB" would be on order for those two picks at least. 

Anyway, curious as to what the sharks think of 2021 according to at least the most current ADP information. Do you have a strategy yet, or are you still waiting to see where things shake out over the next few weeks? 

If you're feeling bold, please do post your "perfect draft" by player or position for picks 1-5 from each of the 4 positions. 

This topic is for positions 5-8

Go! 

 

I feel like these are the toughest positions to draft from & require the most flexibility. Minimum 8 picks, & as many as 15 picks between your picks, so hard to predict round to round.

I’ve mocked quite a bit here. Diggs/Jefferson, Diggs/Chubb make for excellent 1-2 picks. Tough to catch up if a run starts a dozen picks away from you. 

what’s your strategy 5, 6, 7, 8? 

I agree. Probably the worst spot this year (last year was 9-12). The RBs that go here have increasing risk factors (Saquon, Taylor). I feel like there’s even a difference between 5 and 8, given how the middle of round 2 can shake out. It’s just a very reactive zone this year. Will Zeke slide to me? Do I think a decent RB will fall in round 2 if I take Kelce? The only thing that’s solid is you know you can get a strong WR1. I need to keep ####### with this one. 

Most years I prefer the ends. Easier to predict who might be there for the next pick; you’re basically taking your 1st rounder and then taking pairs of picks the rest of the draft. Or you start the draft with a pair you’ve targeted and you’re taking pairs the whole way.

Feels easier than waiting 9-15 spots between every pick. It’s actually not, but I think psychologically it commonly feels that way. 

BobbyLayne said:

Most years I prefer the ends. Easier to predict who might be there for the next pick; you’re basically taking your 1st rounder and then taking pairs of picks the rest of the draft. Or you start the draft with a pair you’ve targeted and you’re taking pairs the whole way.

Feels easier than waiting 9-15 spots between every pick. It’s actually not, but I think psychologically it commonly feels that way. 

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Historically I feel like I’ve had my best drafts from the 5-6-7-8 spots. 

One of my Championships was from 7, arguably the worst spot. 

but two things happened that LCG year: 

1. I was ticked i was picking 7th, because I had 6 top guys I loved as “locks” and then a bunch guys I thought were a clear drop-off.  When I get annoyed I get super focused. Like an introspective Hulk. “You wouldn’t like me when I’m angry, I get very deep in my thoughts & pay acute attention when I’m angry.” 

2. value seems to slide to the middle of the round seemingly more than the turns. Maybe it was just that year, but with so many picks between picks every time & no short turn, I tend to watch players like a hawk, every round. I approach it like I’m the stopper, like a soccer goalie. And it’s my job to make sure that no value pick that’s sliding makes it past me. Ever. Now, this is within reason. I’m unlikely to go RB-RB-RB like back in the day. But I sure might go WR-WR if I start with Adams, Diggs or Hill & a AJB or Jefferson comes back the other way. Especially at 5. I’m not letting team Henry or team Kamara pair that stuff up with a top 7 WR. Not a chance. 

And having mocked like that I’m pretty comfortable with the RBs I can take 3-4. It gets trickier if I get cute & try to go WR-WR-TE-RB-QB. But it’s not impossible. 

And that’s why I mock for different positions & with different approaches. To see what’s feasible. 

Of course my local live draft is going to break differently. But I like to feel like if the draft zigs, I can zag. I don’t mind taking a WR at 5 if I think Henry is due for a big drop-off. I know I’ll get value later. My big question is “at what cost to the rest of my lineup” - that’s where the value of mocking is for me. High level overview where if 2-3 players all slide to me of relatively equal value in the 2nd or 3rd, what’s my approach in relation to the rest of my draft?  The only way to figure that out is by practicing. 

Obviously I want to take the best player available. But that’s an oversimplification, imo. It lacks foresight. 

I still go RB-RB.  I feel there are just SO MANY good WRs now.

Spike said:

I still go RB-RB.  I feel there are just SO MANY good WRs now.

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Same here.  And I keep adding RBs throughout the draft much earlier than most.  I like that many folks in FF try to get cute and go QB, TE, or WR in the first round.  That leaves more RBs for me to snatch up.  I usually snag a TE in round 3 before I draft a WR.   WRs are a dime a dozen these days.  

I like to try Kelce/Mahommes combo in the middle of the draft. Rounds 3/4 almost have to be rb/rb at that point taking from the pool of Carson, Montgomery, Gaskin, M.Davis, Henderson tier; only because there is a lot of doubt after that level with whom will carry the load fully. Looking at scoring for my league last year this lineup start gets you about 100 ppg (average for a week is 120-135 points for a playoff team) without even looking at WR's, K, or Defense. 

DocHolliday said:

Same here.  And I keep adding RBs throughout the draft much earlier than most.  I like that many folks in FF try to get cute and go QB, TE, or WR in the first round.  That leaves more RBs for me to snatch up.  I usually snag a TE in round 3 before I draft a WR.   WRs are a dime a dozen these days.  

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The thing that is tough about that strategy is the weekly lineup decision. We are better are predicting WRs than RBs when it comes to yearly finish, but WR is much less predictable week to week. You wait and get 6 solid WRs but it's not easy choosing week to week which 3 to start. 

montana_grizzly_bears said:

I like to try Kelce/Mahommes combo in the middle of the draft. Rounds 3/4 almost have to be rb/rb at that point taking from the pool of Carson, Montgomery, Gaskin, M.Davis, Henderson tier; only because there is a lot of doubt after that level with whom will carry the load fully. Looking at scoring for my league last year this lineup start gets you about 100 ppg without even looking at WR's, K, or Defense. 

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The problem is rounds 3 and 4 are historically poor places to get RBs compared with the other positions. Last years 3rd and 4th round RBs were: Melvin Gordon, Mark Ingram, Devin Singletary, Fournette, Lev Bell, Gurley, David Johnson, Chris Carson, and Jon Taylor. The non-RBs in those 2 rounds were: Chark, AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Calvin Ridley, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Amari Cooper, Mark Andrews, Juju, OBJ, DJ Moore, Allen Robinson, Thielen, Mike Evans, Kenny Golladay. 

montana_grizzly_bears said:

I like to try Kelce/Mahommes combo in the middle of the draft. Rounds 3/4 almost have to be rb/rb at that point taking from the pool of Carson, Montgomery, Gaskin, M.Davis, Henderson tier; only because there is a lot of doubt after that level with whom will carry the load fully. Looking at scoring for my league last year this lineup start gets you about 100 ppg (average for a week is 120-135 points for a playoff team) without even looking at WR's, K, or Defense. 

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So picks 1-4 would look like

TE, QB, RB, RB?

then you start stacking WRs 5~> ?

you don’t see that as being weaker at WR than the average team to the point that the advantage gained at TE / QB will be offset?

I’ve not taken a QB before the 5th in a decade & somehow always land a top 6 QB. Last year I snagged Watson in the 7th & Burrow in the 13th. Sure, burrow got hurt, but Watson was consistently good for most of the year.

This year I’d love to snag Dak or Murray, because the ADP is fairly reasonable, but some years my league goes QB crazy & 4 will go in the first 4 rounds, so that leaves 1 in the 5th. If I’m in the wrong draft position to snag him, I’m probably pairing up a Stafford/Lawrence or Burrow/Tannehill late and hoping for the best. Maybe grab Mayfield really late just in case.  

Back to your point, going 4 picks without a WR from the middle looks very challenging. I don’t see a ton of upside talent in rounds 5-9. A couple each round, sure. But I know I won’t be the only manager targeting them. So I’d like to have at least 1 elite, or elite adjacent WR in the 1st 5. 

-jb- said:

I agree. Probably the worst spot this year (last year was 9-12). The RBs that go here have increasing risk factors (Saquon, Taylor). I feel like there’s even a difference between 5 and 8, given how the middle of round 2 can shake out. It’s just a very reactive zone this year. Will Zeke slide to me? Do I think a decent RB will fall in round 2 if I take Kelce? The only thing that’s solid is you know you can get a strong WR1. I need to keep ####### with this one. 

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I agree about the risk at RB at 8. I am inclined to take the sure thing in Kelce, Hill or Adams. Aaron Jones is the one RB that might be there that I would happily take for 8. Unfortunately, the same thing happens in round 2. Am I willing to take CEH or Gibson over Ridley or Waller? I don't think so. 

The problem I see is that the 5th round RB's start to be the ones that are in time shares Ettiene/Robinson, Mostart/Sermon, Fournette Jones, Williams/Gordon. I feel a lot safer (personally) taking one do the guys I listed and then slogging together Moore, Golladay, Sutton, Smith, Brown etc in rounds 5-7. 

montana_grizzly_bears said:

The problem I see is that the 5th round RB's start to be the ones that are in time shares Ettiene/Robinson, Mostart/Sermon, Fournette Jones, Williams/Gordon. I feel a lot safer (personally) taking one do the guys I listed and then slogging together Moore, Golladay, Sutton, Smith, Brown etc in rounds 5-7. 

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For sure but that's the discount that is keeping them more affordable. A lot will change from late August to the end of the year. 

Ilov80s said:

The thing that is tough about that strategy is the weekly lineup decision. We are better are predicting WRs than RBs when it comes to yearly finish, but WR is much less predictable week to week. You wait and get 6 solid WRs but it's not easy choosing week to week which 3 to start. 

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I have never had to choose from 6 solid WRs.  Three or four of the WRs rise above the others.   I understand your point though and it can be frustrating to choose 3 out of 4 good WRs week after week.  I would rather lock down RB and TE early in the draft and then gather WRs. 

I have the 8th pick in my main long running home league. I think my ideal start would be something like :

1: Aaron Jones

2: Calvin Ridley

3: McLaurin/Lamb

4: Woods (Pitts is tempting)

5: Hock

6: Aiyuk

7: Jeudy

8: Hurts

9: Pollard

10: Jamal Williams

Allow me to bore you to tears
 

Real draft ADPs are not the same as Mock Draft results. But I wasn’t too unhappy with this mock results from the 5 spot.

Your Team

1. Ezekiel Elliott (Dal - RB)  
2. DeAndre Hopkins (Ari - WR)  
3. Allen Robinson II (Chi - WR)  
4. Cooper Kupp (LAR - WR)  
5. T.J. Hockenson (Det - TE)  
6. Javonte Williams (Den - RB)  
7. Chase Claypool (Pit - WR)  
8. Ronald Jones II (TB - RB)  
9. David Johnson (Hou - RB)  
10. Nyheim Hines (Ind - RB)  
11. Mike Williams (LAC - WR)  
12. Kirk Cousins (Min - QB)  
13. J.D. McKissic (Was - RB)  
14. Tua Tagovailoa (Mia - QB)  
15. Rashod Bateman (Bal - WR) 

1.06 - usual suspects, was choosing between EE & Barkley.. Full PPR.

2.07 - 13 RB/4 WR/1 TE off the board. Hopkins over CEH, AJ, Jefferson or TE2/TE3.

3.06 - ARob was the 12th WR taken and the only guy remaining with not a possibility but a probability of 150+ targets. Has thrived for over six years with bad QBs, now playing with the two best QBs of his career. Over Dobbins Monty Godwin Lockett (Big 3 TE are gone)

4.07 - Kupp rarely faces either press or double coverage bc of how McVey deploys him. No WR in the league gets as many layups from his OC/HC. WR18 in this draft, taken over Julio, Moore, Dionte.

5.06 Targets are not random, they are earned. He’s a weekly matchup problem and will be the focal point of the offense. 130+ targets.

ASIDE - I like Big 3 or Next 3 TE strategy this year. You should draft TEs who have at least 20% of their teams market (& preferably 25% +.) Andrews-Hock-Kelce-Kittle-Waller are the only guys probable to see that. Pitts? Maybe, but that’s a lot of draft capital. Goedert has historical market share in his favor. Fant does as well but there are a LOT of good WRs in DEN. Thomas, Tonyan, Gesicki and I. Smith (or J. Smith) are all solid IRL TEs but will likely have less 15% market share in 2021.

6.07 - Got lucky here, Sermon & Williams are usually gone here and I settle for Edmonds or a veteran in a  ambiguous backfield RB. Note, our format is 3 WR-2 RB-TE-F (W/R/T), 1.0 PPR. I used to always think “always put an RB in the Flex” but IME (& data supports this) WR are more consistent & WR 37-48 have a better PPG than RB 25-36. Thus I prefer to load up on top 20 WR over RBs in the 13-25 positional range. Taken ahead of Fournette, Robinson, Harris, Mostert.

7.06 - Lamb & McLauren early, Aiyuk and Claypool later are my favorite young WRs to have huge breakout seasons. Thrilled to get this guy for my Flex starter. JJSS, Cooks, AB, Jeudy, Deebo were other choices.

8.07 - Another lucky find, he usually goes ahead of a lot of other RBs in muddled situations. Played great and was the entrenched starter before getting hurt late (when Fournette finally showed some life.) DJ, Gordon, Connor, Drake also out there.

9.06 - still good production, no upside but could start until JW asserts himself. Passed on Robby Anderson, Chark, Curtis Samuel, Landry.

10.07 - I made a mistake here. The QB10 (Burrow) came off at the Rnd 8. I had Stafford and Tannehill at the top of the queue but figured no one would be taking back ups with so much value out there. Oops.

11.06 - Screw it, now I’m punting QB. Insane getting this kind of upside in the 11th as WR depth.

12.07 - I did not yell CHAMPlONSHIP after this pick. QB14.

13.06 - only Kamara had more targets & receptions at RB. Like Hines he is game script dependent and that’s hard to predict. But I believe both will have standalone value in 2021. Usually goes around the 11th in full PPR.

14.07 - QB19. With all the weapons the Dolphins have surrounded him with, there is a non-zero chance that he hits this year. In retrospect, if I get jammed up like this on draft day I’ll probably take a solid  high end QB2 like Matt Ryan, and back him with a running QB like Fields or Lance who might be tearing it up at year end.

15.06 - low-volume passing Offense, but who cares, it’s my WR6. This guy has been impressing @ OTAs, in training camp, and he is poised to become the X receiver. It’s going to help Hollywood Brown (better fit) and the entire  offense. He’s got all the tools. It wasn’t a great landing spot, but he could have an immediate impact.

__________________

Would love to hear feedback. I suspect a lot of people will question taking guys like RoJo, DJ, Hines when there are a lot of good wide receivers from that 30 to 50 range. My view is the hit rate for top 20 WR is greater than the sketchy RB 13–24. But I can appreciate that not everyone agrees with  front loading  your draft with wind receivers.

Thank you for attending my TED talk

Ilov80s said:

I have the 8th pick in my main long running home league. I think my ideal start would be something like :

1: Aaron Jones

2: Calvin Ridley

3: McLaurin/Lamb

4: Woods (Pitts is tempting)

5: Hock

6: Aiyuk

7: Jeudy

8: Hurts

9: Pollard

10: Jamal Williams

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Just about a carbon copy of my perfect draft. 

Ilov80s said:

Unfortunately, the same thing happens in round 2. Am I willing to take CEH or Gibson over Ridley or Waller? I don't think so. 

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Chances are Ridley is gone by then, so you’d be looking at AJB or Jefferson there. 

A start of AJones/AJB or Kelce/Gibson has a lot of appeal. Especially the former. 

DocHolliday said:

I have never had to choose from 6 solid WRs.  Three or four of the WRs rise above the others.   I understand your point though and it can be frustrating to choose 3 out of 4 good WRs week after week.  I would rather lock down RB and TE early in the draft and then gather WRs. 

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It is differing approaches but it’s not binary.  Traditional RB/RB or RB/WR/RB still has a lot adherents.

I find emerging RBs (typically lottery tickets I’m holding, on rare occasions raging FABB wars) are consistent producers. Wide Receivers who emerge, not so much.

No matter where you take them, there’s a 50% chance your WR3/Flex WR4 will make you sad. It’s the same fir all of us. Often times predicting matchups/game scripts is futile. Most times I’m better off sticking with my starters and taking the good with the bad. I don’t lose bc a WR3/RB2 put up single digits. It’s bc of several duds. Or opponent had Tyler freaking Lockett throwing up 50.  

ETA: poorly worded, what I’m trying to convey is I hope to avoid melancholy WR3 by locking up three in the Top 20. It’s a target rich environment bc everyone else is scrambling to take mediocre RB2s who have little upside. 

Anyway, four dollars a pound, I find WRs 11-20 have way higher hit rate than RBs 11-30, so I’ll keep front loading WRs in half/full PPR.

BobbyLayne said:

Would love to hear feedback. I suspect a lot of people will question taking guys like RoJo, DJ, Hines when there are a lot of good wide receivers from that 30 to 50 range. My view is the hit rate for top 20 WR is greater than the sketchy RB 13–24. But I can appreciate that not everyone agrees with  front loading  your draft with wind receivers.

Thank you for attending my TED talk

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I like the approach. Some risk, as your success largely hinges on a bigtime bounce-back from EE. I’d have been tempted to take best WR available then grab Chubb, Gibson, or one of the other round 2 RB, but that’s likely in part  because EE burned me last year.  Also in part because I expect his workload to be managed (per coaches) as they believe he can do more with less. I’m expecting a bit more RBBC with Pollard.

That said, it’s a nice build. And I don’t mind your grabbing RoJo & Hines, because there’s some risk with Williams as well. If anything I would have liked to have seen you grab a Sermon or Carter as well. Sermon kind of a lottery ticket, Carter likely has a safer floor. 

Hot Sauce Guy said:

Chances are Ridley is gone by then, so you’d be looking at AJB or Jefferson there. 

A start of AJones/AJB or Kelce/Gibson has a lot of appeal. Especially the former. 

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Ridley is usually WR4? You can def find Jones at the end of the first and Calvin early in the second.

Aiyuk in 6th has sailed though. The whole world can rank him WR25, the community is taking him around WR20-22.

Hot Sauce Guy said:

I like the approach. Some risk, as your success largely hinges on a bigtime bounce-back from EE. I’d have been tempted to take best WR available then grab Chubb, Gibson, or one of the other round 2 RB, but that’s likely in part  because EE burned me last year.  Also in part because I expect his workload to be managed (per coaches) as they believe he can do more with less. I’m expecting a bit more RBBC with Pollard.

That said, it’s a nice build. And I don’t mind your grabbing RoJo & Hines, because there’s some risk with Williams as well. If anything I would have liked to have seen you grab a Sermon or Carter as well. Sermon kind of a lottery ticket, Carter likely has a safer floor. 

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I’m not rostering Carter (or any NYJ), and while I like Sermon, someone always reaches for him. I find it odd Williams goes a full round after him. JW is more talented, both backfields are ambiguous, I would think they’d be side by side.

Every year there are post-hype sleepers, guys who burned FF managers who overdrafted them. They compound their error by deciding the following year “never drafting that RB/that HC’s RB ever again.” Except now he’s  cheaper and the price dropped big time. Numerous examples.

I’m fine rostering productive vets who are undervalued bc of butthurt. Granted, I want most of my roster to have upside. I want guys who will be ascending weeks 11-17 (Sermon, Williams), not  the guys with diminished roles. But a couple steady Eddie producers to give you viable starters Weeks 1-6 while things shake out is not the worst thing..

BobbyLayne said:

I’m not rostering Carter (or any NYJ), and while I like Sermon, someone always reaches for him. I find it odd Williams goes a full round after him. JW is more talented, both backfields are ambiguous, I would think they’d be side by side.

Every year there are post-hype sleepers, guys who burned FF managers who overdrafted them. They compound their error by deciding the following year “never drafting that RB/that HC’s RB ever again.” Except now he’s  cheaper and the price dropped big time. Numerous examples.

I’m fine rostering productive vets who are undervalued bc of butthurt. Granted, I want most of my roster to have upside. I want guys who will be ascending weeks 11-17 (Sermon, Williams), not  the guys with diminished roles. But a couple steady Eddie producers to give you viable starters Weeks 1-6 while things shake out is not the worst thing..

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Sure - I was less focused on the names and more on building depth at the position. Only because in your strategy of that mock you went Elliott, then didn’t take another RB until the 6th.  
 

Also, to be clear, being butthurt is only part of why I don’t love EE in the 1st. The other part is that I’ve been following what his coaches are saying, and divining that he won’t be a 25 touch/game RB. Pollard earned a role, and they want to keep Elliot fresh for a playoff run where they can then give him 25 touches a game. 

And that’s all great for the Cowboys, but it could lead to less than elite RB numbers in the 1st half of the season. 

I agree about Sermon Vs Williams. I’d rather have Williams a round later.

Carter is going a round or 2 later still, and he should be flex-worthy & a nice depth piece. His value is depressed because folks are butthurt about the Jets in general. I feel like there’s some sleepy value because of that. 

Hot Sauce Guy said:

Chances are Ridley is gone by then, so you’d be looking at AJB or Jefferson there. 

A start of AJones/AJB or Kelce/Gibson has a lot of appeal. Especially the former. 

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I was just basing that on FF Calc ADP which has him at 20- not that those are perfect by any stretch. His ADP is 14 on Underdog which means he is likely gone but within striking distance. The 4 guys after him are Chubb, Hopkins, Gibosn and Mixon. Wouldn't be too crazy to see 3 of those guys go ahead of Ridley. 

Hot Sauce Guy said:

Sure - I was less focused on the names and more on building depth at the position. Only because in your strategy of that mock you went Elliott, then didn’t take another RB until the 6th.  

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Trust me: this takes a lot of discipline. It’s the easiest tenet to abandon in the moment.

But here’s the deal...while other people are throwing trash bags on their roster (Sanders, Monty, Jacobs, Gaskin), you’re picking up PPR pinball machines. Then when you pivot back to RB, the hit rates in rounds 7-10 are not that much worse than rounds 3-6. They’re taking guys like Jeudy and Deebo for their WR3/Flex. Good players, they might hit.

But your WR2 taken in the third is a borderline WR1. Your WR3 is as good or better than their WR2. Your WR4/Flex outscores those trash bags they were picking up.

Its not foolproof, but it’s worked often enough (in Full PPR) I’ve learned to trust it all s a viable option.

I also have drafts where I lock up two RBs right away. I’m not married to any strategy. A lot depends on what the rest of the league is doing. When I’m able to, I zig when they zag. Long run on RBs? Start a new run with a sick value at WR. Everyone is methodically going through their ranks and drafting RBs in ranked order. Drop down and take the huge upside guy they thought  would last another round.

I have been playing with a ton of guys for 10-15-20 years. With a few of them, I know pretty much which positions and often which players each of them will take. When it’s my turn to draft, I want those guys to be thinking “I have no idea what this motherless #### might do.”

BobbyLayne said:

Trust me: this takes a lot of discipline. It’s the easiest tenet to abandon in the moment.

But here’s the deal...while other people are throwing trash bags on their roster (Sanders, Monty, Jacobs, Gaskin), you’re picking up PPR pinball machines. Then when you pivot back to RB, the hit rates in rounds 7-10 are not that much worse than rounds 3-6. They’re taking guys like Jeudy and Deebo for their WR3/Flex. Good players, they might hit.

But your WR2 taken in the third is a borderline WR1. Your WR3 is as good or better than their WR2. Your WR4/Flex outscores those trash bags they were picking up.

Its not foolproof, but it’s worked often enough (in Full PPR) I’ve learned to trust it all s a viable option.

I also have drafts where I lock up two RBs right away. I’m not married to any strategy. A lot depends on what the r3st of the league us doing. When I’m able to, I zig when they zag. Long run on RBs? Start a new run with a sick value at WR. Everyone is methodically going through their ranks and$ drafting RBs in order. Drop down and take the huge upside guy they thought  would last another round.

I have been playing with a ton of guys for 10-15-20 years. With a few of them, I know pretty much which positions and often which players each of them will take. When it’s my turn to draft, I want those guys to be thinking “I have no idea what this motherless #### might do.”

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Completely agree, and it’s a style of drafting I’ve done many times.

my best seasons have been where I hit on that 6th round back. My worst are when I miss. 

So as a contingency, I’d probably grab at least one more upside back late to help mitigate that a little. 

Otherwise I’m with you on this strategy, especially from the middle draft positions.  

That said, I’ve also had drafts where I approached the draft with this in mind, then got to the 6th only to see some great value at WR and everyone reached for the RBs I expected to be there. That’s a sick, sinking feeling, lemme tell ya. lol

Hot Sauce Guy said:

That said, I’ve also had drafts where I approached the draft with this in mind, then got to the 6th only to see some great value at WR and everyone reached for the RBs I expected to be there. That’s a sick, sinking feeling, lemme tell ya. lol

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100%. Between the 4th and 5th rounds is the most stressful time and you have to process a lot in a short amount of time.

5th round really makes or breaks most drafts. In the first four rounds, chances are pretty good you’ve picked 3 good starters. One will get hurt or disappoint, every ####### time.

The 5th round reverberates for several rounds. If you take a QB, you’re a round behind everyone else for a couple rounds. Take a TE, you better hope your 6th/7th rounders are league winners (top 36 WR or top 24 RB.) Somewhere in rounds 5-8 you need one guy to far exceed ADP. You might make the playoffs, but you’re probably not taking the title without one of these guys paying off big time.

But round 5 really sets the tone and the path the rest of the draft will take.  

BobbyLayne said:

100%. Between the 4th and 5th rounds is the most stressful time and you have to process a lot in a short amount of time.

5th round really makes or breaks most drafts. In the first four rounds, chances are pretty good you’ve picked 3 good starters. One will get hurt or disappoint, every ####### time.

The 5th round reverberates for several rounds. If you take a QB, you’re a round behind everyone else for a couple rounds. Take a TE, you better hope your 6th/7th rounders are league winners (top 36 WR or top 24 RB.) Somewhere in rounds 5-8 you need one guy to far exceed ADP. You might make the playoffs, but you’re probably not taking the title without one of these guys paying off big time.

But round 5 really sets the tone and the path the rest of the draft will take.  

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Also, when you look back at drafts it is crazy how bad they are. Universally. Most of the players disappoint badly. Looking at one of my better teams from last year and of my main starters, only Kelce and Kyler were drafted. James Robinson was an add before the season started. Mike Davis, Justin Jefferson and Tee Higgins were all WW adds that I went all in on early.  If I get out of the draft with 2 difference makers, 1 or 2 consistent starters and 1 or 2 guys who have potential to grow into a role, I can usually make do on the WW rest of the way.

In other words, I am not at all concerned with having a complete team at the end of the draft because it's not going to work out. 

Ilov80s said:

Also, when you look back at drafts it is crazy how bad they are. Universally. Most of the players disappoint badly. Looking at one of my better teams from last year and of my main starters, only Kelce and Kyler were drafted. James Robinson was an add before the season started. Mike Davis, Justin Jefferson and Tee Higgins were all WW adds that I went all in on early.  If I get out of the draft with 2 difference makers, 1 or 2 consistent starters and 1 or 2 guys who have potential to grow into a role, I can usually make do on the WW rest of the way.

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One thing that has helped me a lot the last few years is to acknowledge I make a lot of mistakes. I whiff all the time. Guess what, so do all the experts.

But it also reminds me that I’m not actually that great at picking specific players. So what I really should be focused on is general strategies that give me a slight edge over other managers. I’m not a genius at identifying talent that will produce fantasy football points.

But I do you have the ability to analyze simple data and identify trends.

Instead of trying to get specific specific players right, I try to keep things more general  that can be applied across a range of players. Data that points me to players who meet certain criteria. Then trying to draft one of those guys - one of four or five guys - not a specific  player. Or looking for receivers that meet the  criteria in reception perception.

When I stopped trying to pick a few specific players, I realize that I also stopped being negative towards or closing off other players who had similar opportunities or  talent.

hope that makes sense.

BobbyLayne said:

Most years I prefer the ends. Easier to predict who might be there for the next pick; you’re basically taking your 1st rounder and then taking pairs of picks the rest of the draft. Or you start the draft with a pair you’ve targeted and you’re taking pairs the whole way.

Feels easier than waiting 9-15 spots between every pick. It’s actually not, but I think psychologically it commonly feels that way. 

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I completely agree.  I hate drafting in the middle as my teams always feel disjointed as it seems I never get on the right end of a run.  It just seems like I am always just getting leftovers.  I much prefer the ends.  

Not sure if this is useful, but semi-germane to the conversation. This is a loose structure of my process for an important league I'm in:

• Record the first four positions drafted by my leaguemates over the last four years. If I'm near the turn, it can be helpful to see the guy's tendency who is on the turn. There are at least four managers that are sure to get the same combination of positions every year. 
  
• Record "positions drafted by." I know how many QB/RB/WR/TE are drafted each round, on average. Deviation year to year is no more than one round, and it's usually something obvious (ie history in this league states 0 TE in the first, 2 in the second - this will likely change this year with people more highly focused on Kelce/Waller/Kittle).
  
  I can tell you that 7 QBs are drafted by the end of the 7th round every year. I'm happy to be in the QB 5-10 range this year, so I make myself a note to check in at the QB position in this round, and perhaps take action. It also helps identify lulls in runs, which again are pretty consistent year-to-year.
  
• I can also say that rounds 4-5-6 are when TEs are consistently taken. So if I know that I'd be happy with Hock or Pitts, I should probably make it happen in the fifth
  
• WRs drafted spikes in the fourth, every year. 
  

Obviously this info is specific to this league, but it does help me gleen some information that can help navigate draft day.

And of course, written at the bottom of my screen....words of wisdom. 

YMMV

BobbyLayne said:

When I stopped trying to pick a few specific players, I realize that I also stopped being negative towards or closing off other players who had similar opportunities or  talent.

hope that makes sense.

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It does, and I find it interesting that some folks in these 3 topics have said various forms of don't target players, plan for positions or you can't aim for positions, but you can target players and then of course there's @Gally who's taking a more zen approach of don't try to plan it, just let the draft come to you, just like, let it happen, maaaan.   (I know what Gally means, I'm just just playing around)  

But to your point, I take a similar approach, with one more level of detail. Once I have my player pool, I try to prioritize them for teams I think will perform better or worse, and then I'll look at SOS. There are secondary considerations of course, but they are relevant. 

I have a hard time taking good players on bad teams. I have done so and will continue to do so, but only if the players I "like" are off the board. So yes, I get your approach, and agree with it, but then I also have mini-tiers within those groups. 

And maybe by doing that I expose my personal bias for those players. Maybe that does hinder my ability to find "the ugly fruit", to borrow from an apple guy at my farmers market. He always tells me the ugly apples make the best sauce, and maybe some ugly FF players will produce the same points from lower rounds. 

I concede that's possible. But as has been said here, I'd rather win with "my guys".  

Ilov80s said:

In other words, I am not at all concerned with having a complete team at the end of the draft because it's not going to work out. 

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That is heavily dependent on league format.  Most of my leagues are deep benches and the guys you mentioned getting off the WW in your previous post were long gone.  In short bench leagues you are correct.  Working the WW is almost more important than the draft itself.

-jb- said:

Not sure if this is useful, but semi-germane to the conversation. This is a loose structure of my process for an important league I'm in:

• Record the first four positions drafted by my leaguemates over the last four years. If I'm near the turn, it can be helpful to see the guy's tendency who is on the turn. There are at least four managers that are sure to get the same combination of positions every year. 
  
• Record "positions drafted by." I know how many QB/RB/WR/TE are drafted each round, on average. Deviation year to year is no more than one round, and it's usually something obvious (ie history in this league states 0 TE in the first, 2 in the second - this will likely change this year with people more highly focused on Kelce/Waller/Kittle).
  
  I can tell you that 7 QBs are drafted by the end of the 7th round every year. I'm happy to be in the QB 5-10 range this year, so I make myself a note to check in at the QB position in this round, and perhaps take action. It also helps identify lulls in runs, which again are pretty consistent year-to-year.
  
• I can also say that rounds 4-5-6 are when TEs are consistently taken. So if I know that I'd be happy with Hock or Pitts, I should probably make it happen in the fifth
  
• WRs drafted spikes in the fourth, every year. 
  

Obviously this info is specific to this league, but it does help me gleen some information that can help navigate draft day.

And of course, written at the bottom of my screen....words of wisdom. 

YMMV

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I also do this every year - I look back at the last couple of drafts to see how my leaguemates draft specifically, and generally where the runs tend to start on which positions.

I've noticed, for example, that elite QBs have been rising. People probably feel like "if only I had a Mahomes, I woulda shipped!" 

So Mahomes is a 1st rounder. I'm anticipating Allen also being taken top 16, maybe top 12. 

I don't believe they're correct in that assessment, but it does help me to plan what I'm doing, knowing that more of other positions will slide as a result. 

I'm actually hopeful that elite TEs slide a little this year. Kittle got hurt, Andrews didn't take a big leap (though he was very productive)  etc. So it might be that the TE run starts in the 3rd instead this year - maybe it will and maybe not. Kelce is probably a 1st or early 2nd rounder, but I doubt Andrews/Kittle are.  And if those two go in the 3-4 rounds, then maybe I'm looking at a Pitts/Hock in the 5th. Maybe. 

Nothing's certain, but it's never a bad idea to look at how your leaguemates have drafted year to year to see if any trends are worth noting, or if as in the example above, you can anticipate any trends. 

Another point - I take the data I gather, then mash it up with current ADP, then plot it out for the first six rounds, divided by early/mid/late draft slots. In this league, you don’t know your draft position until 10 minutes prior to the draft itself. I can then look at players probable to fall in certain ranges. Again, not exact science but gives you something. 
 

that’s why I like these threads - to discuss how a roster could pan out based on the buckets created. 

I've said this before but I Love 5.  Gimme kelce first, a top WR in the second and those year two rbs in 3-4.  The "rb deadzone" meme doesn't scare me.

wgoldsph said:

I've said this before but I Love 5.  Gimme kelce first, a top WR in the second and those year two rbs in 3-4.  The "rb deadzone" meme doesn't scare me.

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I like 5 also, but for Diggs. I don’t see any change to his targets, and he’s got potential for double digit TDs. 

Kelce is at an age where I start to get concerned that the bumps & bruises add up.  I don’t mind spending on a top 5 TE, I just don’t love Kelce at 1.05. 

Hot Sauce Guy said:

I like 5 also, but for Diggs. I don’t see any change to his targets, and he’s got potential for double digit TDs. 

Kelce is at an age where I start to get concerned that the bumps & bruises add up.  I don’t mind spending on a top 5 TE, I just don’t love Kelce at 1.05. 

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The difference between Diggs and an Aj brown or dk Metcalf who you can find a round later isn't as big as the difference between kelce and basically anyone after waller/kittle.  Even if you count on him being out/slowed for a handful of games, kelce in there at close to 100% for 10 of your total games gives you a huge advantage others just don't have.

wgoldsph said:

The difference between Diggs and an Aj brown or dk Metcalf who you can find a round later isn't as big as the difference between kelce and basically anyone after waller/kittle.  Even if you count on him being out/slowed for a handful of games, kelce in there at close to 100% for 10 of your total games gives you a huge advantage others just don't have.

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Except for age of course. 

If I'm going elite TE, I'm going for one in the 2nd or 3rd, ideally 4th. I'd rather have a Pitts/Hock in the 4th than Kelce in the 1st. 

The round they're taken has a value associated with it as well. 

Personally, I have Metcalf as an overdrafted guy right now. I love the player, I just don't see him taking a gigantic leap from last year. AJB suffers from a lack of TDs & being in a low volume passing offense (compared to a Diggs, Hill, Adams or Ridley). 

5 is tough because Henry & Kamara have risks associated, but I'd be more likely to go Henry -> Kittle than I would to go Kelce -> anyone. And ideally if I can land a RB and receiver rounds 1-2, and maybe even another of either round 3, then get Hock/Pitts round 4, I feel like it's a stronger build. 

Kelce has risen to the point where I'm out on him this year.  31 isn't particularly "old" but it's football old. If I hadn't missed on him as a 2nd rounder least year I woulda grabbed him. But now he's a 1st rounder and I just don't like it. 

Personal preference. 

Hot Sauce Guy said:

Except for age of course. 

If I'm going elite TE, I'm going for one in the 2nd or 3rd, ideally 4th. I'd rather have a Pitts/Hock in the 4th than Kelce in the 1st. 

The round they're taken has a value associated with it as well. 

Personally, I have Metcalf as an overdrafted guy right now. I love the player, I just don't see him taking a gigantic leap from last year. AJB suffers from a lack of TDs & being in a low volume passing offense (compared to a Diggs, Hill, Adams or Ridley). 

5 is tough because Henry & Kamara have risks associated, but I'd be more likely to go Henry -> Kittle than I would to go Kelce -> anyone. And ideally if I can land a RB and receiver rounds 1-2, and maybe even another of either round 3, then get Hock/Pitts round 4, I feel like it's a stronger build. 

Kelce has risen to the point where I'm out on him this year.  31 isn't particularly "old" but it's football old. If I hadn't missed on him as a 2nd rounder least year I woulda grabbed him. But now he's a 1st rounder and I just don't like it. 

Personal preference. 

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Honestly I've never gone te first, don't even like to go away from rb in the first generally, but I really believe that the best rbs this year will be the non-jt second year guys.  Gibson, ceh, swift, Dobbins, give me two of them and a stud WR in 2-4, and you can still find wrs with top 10 upside in round 5 then a top ten qb in six... I think you don't need a zeke, Barkley, or d Adams, t hill to really set your team above because of the depth out there.  The weakest position is te, and I just can't see taking anyone but kelce there.   I guess you could go mahomes if you're feeling froggy, but the upside pick for me is kelce.  Once Cmc and Cook (and some argue Kamara) are gone - the first rb tier - I'm in on some Calvinball compared to how I normally draft.

I really like Aj Brown despite the fact he won't post elite tds, Julio will take more pressure off than Davis did and any 1v1 is a win for him.  With you on Metcalf, but it's not like he isn't a top WR as is.

It might not be a good strategy but at least at this point in the offseason I feel like round value doesn't matter too terribly.  Will probably feel totally different by September when training camp is over and everyone has their rankings a lot more solid.  As is you still have rbs like Henderson and Davis going much later than they should leaving error room if you miss out on a top guy there.

wgoldsph said:

Honestly I've never gone te first, don't even like to go away from rb in the first generally, but I really believe that the best rbs this year will be the non-jt second year guys.  Gibson, ceh, swift, Dobbins, give me two of them and a stud WR in 2-4, and you can still find wrs with top 10 upside in round 5 then a top ten qb in six... I think you don't need a zeke, Barkley, or d Adams, t hill to really set your team above because of the depth out there.  The weakest position is te, and I just can't see taking anyone but kelce there.   I guess you could go mahomes if you're feeling froggy, but the upside pick for me is kelce.  Once Cmc and Cook (and some argue Kamara) are gone - the first rb tier - I'm in on some Calvinball compared to how I normally draft.

I really like Aj Brown despite the fact he won't post elite tds, Julio will take more pressure off than Davis did and any 1v1 is a win for him.  With you on Metcalf, but it's not like he isn't a top WR as is.

It might not be a good strategy but at least at this point in the offseason I feel like round value doesn't matter too terribly.  Will probably feel totally different by September when training camp is over and everyone has their rankings a lot more solid.  As is you still have rbs like Henderson and Davis going much later than they should leaving error room if you miss out on a top guy there.

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to each their own. I wish you luck with it & I’d be interested in revisiting after you draft to see how it went. 

It’s bold, and luck favors the bold.

Hot Sauce Guy said:

to each their own. I wish you luck with it & I’d be interested in revisiting after you draft to see how it went. 

It’s bold, and luck favors the bold.

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My only money league is a dynasty auction so I have the luxury of being able to get weird with the other ones I do. I'm looking forward to see how they go though.  Hoping for 100% deebo ownership.

wgoldsph said:

My only money league is a dynasty auction so I have the luxury of being able to get weird with the other ones I do. I'm looking forward to see how they go though.  Hoping for 100% deebo ownership.

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I like both Niners WRs value right now. 

Let's see where it's at when we draft. Mine's on the 28th. A lot will change between now & then, so I'm keeping my targets loose. 

wgoldsph said:

I've said this before but I Love 5.  Gimme kelce first, a top WR in the second and those year two rbs in 3-4.  The "rb deadzone" meme doesn't scare me.

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So your draft is looking something like

Kelce

Jefferson/Metcalf/Lamb/Ridley

Montgomery/Swift/Sanders

Henderson/Gaskin

I don’t love it but I don’t hate it. I still believe RB/RB will be the way to go from this spot. I have the 5 spot. But I also don’t play PPR so I’m coming at it from a different angle and can see how Kelce and a high volume receiver give you an edge.

Mocks are mocks, so they aren’t truth. But I’d much rather go into the season with a team similar to the ones I recently mocked going RB RB

Zeke/Kamara

Harris/Clyde/Mixon

mclaurin/Allen/Robinson/Lamb/Evan’s/Godwin

VikingFrog said:

So your draft is looking something like

Kelce

Jefferson/Metcalf/Lamb/Ridley

Montgomery/Swift/Sanders

Henderson/Gaskin

I don’t love it but I don’t hate it. I still believe RB/RB will be the way to go from this spot. I have the 5 spot. But I also don’t play PPR so I’m coming at it from a different angle and can see how Kelce and a high volume receiver give you an edge.

Mocks are mocks, so they aren’t truth. But I’d much rather go into the season with a team similar to the ones I recently mocked going RB RB

Zeke/Kamara

Harris/Clyde/Mixon

mclaurin/Allen/Robinson/Lamb/Evan’s/Godwin

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after looking at things, I think you’re right that going rb heavy from the middle probably best. You could potentially grab Waller or Kittle if you’re willing to take a shot on a Carson/Swift/Montgomery type.

Zeke/Najee/McLaurin/Woods

Zeke/Waller/Carson/Woods

Zeke/Metcalf/Kittle/Gaskin

Zeke/Najee/Kittle/Gaskin

-jb- said:

after looking at things, I think you’re right that going rb heavy from the middle probably best. You could potentially grab Waller or Kittle if you’re willing to take a shot on a Carson/Swift/Montgomery type.

Zeke/Najee/McLaurin/Woods

Zeke/Waller/Carson/Woods

Zeke/Metcalf/Kittle/Gaskin

Zeke/Najee/Kittle/Gaskin

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At that bolded point I’m taking a WR, QB or taking a shot at Edmonds, ETN, Henderson in the 4th.

I’m just not a believer in Gaskin’s long term viability in MIA. 

Team 2 is my favorite of the above potentials listed. 

Team 1 could potentially get a Hock or Pittman in the 4th. Woods is a nice backup plan. Now I’m looking for Irv Smith or Higbee types later. 

Ilov80s said:

I have the 8th pick in my main long running home league. I think my ideal start would be something like :

1: Aaron Jones

2: Calvin Ridley

3: McLaurin/Lamb

4: Woods (Pitts is tempting)

5: Hock

6: Aiyuk

7: Jeudy

8: Hurts

9: Pollard

10: Jamal Williams

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My god, Pollard as your RB2?

Drafting your WR5 before your RB2?

Deamon said:

My god, Pollard as your RB2?

Drafting your WR5 before your RB2?

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Start 3 WRs and a flex so it's not really that crazy. You have to be weak somewhere, I am fine being weak at RB and hunting the WW all year for injury fill-ins, breakouts, etc.