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Weighing a Keeper vs. Dynasty League (1 Viewer)

OnTheReg

OnTheReg

Footballguy
Hi everyone! First post this season and I just couldn't be more excited to spend most of my downtime for the next 6 months here with you all! 

I have sort of a broad question that I didn't find a recent thread on and wanted to see what everyone thought, and if they were in a similar situation as I am. 

So I am in a few different types of leagues - dynasty, two keeper, redraft, auction, etc. My question is around bigger keeper leagues, and how you compare it with say a full dynasty team. For those keeper leagues where you are able to keep up to six guys, are you just using dynasty rankings in that scenario? Or are you leaning more towards the redraft rankings because with six keepers there can still be a good deal of turnover from year to year? 

I struggle with this because while I get the inherent value of Kyle Pitts, is he worthy of a super high pick if you're keeping six guys? Am I bumping AJ Brown and Justin Jefferson ahead of Stefon Diggs and Tyreke Hill? I wouldn't do that in a redraft of course, but how are you guys feeling about these types of decisions?

 
Welcome aboard.

We keep 8 in my 10-team league with 4 year contracts (but can extend 2 more years at a cost of a keeper spot), so we're a bit of a hybrid. Because that means up to 80 players are kept, that mainly leaves the top rookies and veterans whose contracts have expired at the top of the food chain. So it's kind of a forced dynasty approach, although once you get past the top rookies and proven vets, the redraft/dynasty/keeper line gets pretty blurred.

 
zamboni said:
Welcome aboard.

We keep 8 in my 10-team league with 4 year contracts (but can extend 2 more years at a cost of a keeper spot), so we're a bit of a hybrid. Because that means up to 80 players are kept, that mainly leaves the top rookies and veterans whose contracts have expired at the top of the food chain. So it's kind of a forced dynasty approach, although once you get past the top rookies and proven vets, the redraft/dynasty/keeper line gets pretty blurred.
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Thanks for the response! How would you approach it from the beginning? Just treat it like a dynasty league in terms of rankings? 

 
So I play in a very similar league. 16 team IDP. We keep 6 offense and 8 defense. I hate calling it a keeper league because we keep 14 players which is fairly high. 

For me I look at both dynasty and redraft rankings. If you treat it like a full on dynasty then you are always playing the long game/rebuilding mode and potentially missing some win now opportunities. If you treat it like a full redraft and win now then you miss out on the longevity of a well constructed roster and end up blowing it up every couple years. I have found that what works in my particular league is that I try and weigh the rankings and ultimately construct my own. I go like 75% dynasty / 25% redraft.  

So yes, I definitely assign more value to guys like Jefferson and Brown. I don't turn my back on older players like those either though. It's a slight bump. 

 
eric rymer said:
So I play in a very similar league. 16 team IDP. We keep 6 offense and 8 defense. I hate calling it a keeper league because we keep 14 players which is fairly high. 

For me I look at both dynasty and redraft rankings. If you treat it like a full on dynasty then you are always playing the long game/rebuilding mode and potentially missing some win now opportunities. If you treat it like a full redraft and win now then you miss out on the longevity of a well constructed roster and end up blowing it up every couple years. I have found that what works in my particular league is that I try and weigh the rankings and ultimately construct my own. I go like 75% dynasty / 25% redraft.  

So yes, I definitely assign more value to guys like Jefferson and Brown. I don't turn my back on older players like those either though. It's a slight bump. 
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I think that makes a lot of sense. It's a subtle difference but definitely one to consider as well. Say I load up on younger guys who might go a round or two later in redraft, it would make sense to then go with an older QB (say Brady) because I know he's going to produce this year, and don't have to necessarily think of him as a keeper.

Random question - as far as the Draft Dominator goes - is there a way to adjust for dynasty rankings? I know we have plenty of cheat sheets for dynasty but I don't see anything within the Draft Dominator. For instance, AJ Brown would be bumped way up if we were ranking in dynasty as opposed to redraft. Any tips?

 
OnTheReg said:
I think that makes a lot of sense. It's a subtle difference but definitely one to consider as well. Say I load up on younger guys who might go a round or two later in redraft, it would make sense to then go with an older QB (say Brady) because I know he's going to produce this year, and don't have to necessarily think of him as a keeper.

Random question - as far as the Draft Dominator goes - is there a way to adjust for dynasty rankings? I know we have plenty of cheat sheets for dynasty but I don't see anything within the Draft Dominator. For instance, AJ Brown would be bumped way up if we were ranking in dynasty as opposed to redraft. Any tips?
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I'd love to know this as well. I feel like I am missing a setting somewhere and hopefully someone will chime in. I love the DD but It's not realistic for me right now. I just watech it take Mike Davis and Tyler Higbee go at 1.2 and 1.3. lol

 
OnTheReg said:
zamboni said:
Welcome aboard.

We keep 8 in my 10-team league with 4 year contracts (but can extend 2 more years at a cost of a keeper spot), so we're a bit of a hybrid. Because that means up to 80 players are kept, that mainly leaves the top rookies and veterans whose contracts have expired at the top of the food chain. So it's kind of a forced dynasty approach, although once you get past the top rookies and proven vets, the redraft/dynasty/keeper line gets pretty blurred.
Click to expand...


Thanks for the response! How would you approach it from the beginning? Just treat it like a dynasty league in terms of rankings? 
Click to expand...
Yeah, if you're starting anew, I would look at from a dynasty standpoint. In actuality, dynasty and redraft rankings tend to not differ all that much except for rookies, who get a bump up in dynasty relative to redraft, and for older proven veterans, who have the opposite effect of being valued higher in redraft than dynasty. 

 
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Exit value matters. I also try to know where the value drops out of a position group. I play in a few leagues in the 3-6 keeper range. Too many young players early? Draft some points now guys. 

 
To me it depends on how long you keep them, not how many.  If it's a 1 or 2 year limit then you have to throw them back, then I just use redraft rankings/tiers.  Anything longer than 2 years and I'd lean towards dynasty values. 

 
I treat dynasty a little different than most.  What I have found that works best for me is to look at 2 year windows which is typically shorter than most dynasty players.  I find that projecting anything more than this year and next turns out to change a lot over those two years via draft, injury, coaching change, free agency, etc.  Because of that I try and use a hybrid of dynasty and redraft rankings.  It has served me well as I have always contended, although I have occasionally changed gears mid season if injuries or schedule luck has me on the outside looking in (we don't do playoffs and go straight overall record at the end of the full season for the title).  It has allowed me to go into every season with a chance for the title and being competitive.  

I have also found that using this approach allows me to get great value on still serviceable vets because owners looking three or more years down the road don't want them and trade them cheaply.  It's the best way to stay competitive in my experience.  

 
OnTheReg said:
I struggle with this because while I get the inherent value of Kyle Pitts, is he worthy of a super high pick if you're keeping six guys?
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if you, like many, believe that due to his predicted usage exclusively as a large WR, playing outside & out of the slot, while qualifying at TE, then he’s absolutely worth drafting high & keeping in a keep-6 format.

That also depends on peripherals like contracts & whether you have limitations as to what round player can be kept, or a limit by roster position, and if there’s a cost in doing so. 

So i wouldn’t draft Pitts quite the same in a keeper league as a Dynasty format, I would still Draft him quite a bit higher than a standard redraft. He’s no worse than a 2nd round pick in your format, assuming you can keep him for at least a few years.  

OnTheReg said:
Am I bumping AJ Brown and Justin Jefferson ahead of Stefon Diggs and Tyreke Hill? I wouldn't do that in a redraft of course, but how are you guys feeling about these types of decisions?
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age is always a factor, yes. But IMO you want a balance. You want to compete now; and Hill/Diggs are both top 3 assets. Heck’s let’s include 29 year old Davante Adams, who may not have Rodgers next year. 

You’ll still want him on your team. You just likely won’t want to keep him. But someone’s going to draft Adams with a win-now philosophy. I wouldn’t fault you if you did. But you’ll want to balance that with a younger talent that you see as ascending to balance that out. 

In a way, a keep-6 league’s limitations frees you up for that sort of strategy. I’d be very unlikely to take Adams in a start-up dynasty, where I wouldn’t hesitate to grab him in a keep-6 format, knowing I’d be tossing him back next year. 

 
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wlwiles said:
To me it depends on how long you keep them, not how many.  If it's a 1 or 2 year limit then you have to throw them back, then I just use redraft rankings/tiers.  Anything longer than 2 years and I'd lean towards dynasty values. 
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This is what I was going to say. Also the cost of keeping matters. Do you get to keep them for free, do you have to give up the draft price you got them the year prior? Does it escalate? 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
if you, like many, believe that due to his predicted usage exclusively as a large WR, playing outside & out of the slot, while qualifying at TE, then he’s absolutely worth drafting high & keeping in a keep-6 format.

That also depends on peripherals like contracts & whether you have limitations as to what round player can be kept, or a limit by roster position, and if there’s a cost in doing so. 

So i wouldn’t draft Pitts quite the same in a keeper league as a Dynasty format, I would still Draft him quite a bit higher than a standard redraft. He’s no worse than a 2nd round pick in your format, assuming you can keep him for at least a few years.  

age is always a factor, yes. But IMO you want a balance. You want to compete now; and Hill/Diggs are both top 3 assets. Heck’s let’s include 29 year old Davante Adams, who may not have Rodgers next year. 

You’ll still want him on your team. You just likely won’t want to keep him. But someone’s going to draft Adams with a win-now philosophy. I wouldn’t fault you if you did. But you’ll want to balance that with a younger talent that you see as ascending to balance that out. 

In a way, a keep-6 league’s limitations frees you up for that sort of strategy. I’d be very unlikely to take Adams in a start-up dynasty, where I wouldn’t hesitate to grab him in a keep-6 format, knowing I’d be tossing him back next year. 
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All excellent points, Sauce. Now let me ask you this - say there are NO restrictions on keepers, with no contracts or any rules prohibiting you from keeping certain players. Then how would you approach a keep 6? 

 
OnTheReg said:
All excellent points, Sauce. Now let me ask you this - say there are NO restrictions on keepers, with no contracts or any rules prohibiting you from keeping certain players. Then how would you approach a keep 6? 
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I’d want to have 6 young ascending talents & still try to get an Adams. Hill & Diggs, hoping to get 2-3 years out if them.

Pitts would be in the 1st group of ascending talent. And if he hits he’ll be on your team until either you or he isn’t good at football any more. ;)  

 
Years ago I played in a very simple keeper (keep two) and I've been playing for decades in a very complex dynasty, and my strategy for both is entirely different.   Imo if you can change keepers year to year then treat your draft as redraft, because if you do your homework you will end up with a handful of players who are worth top picks next year at the end of the season, or at the very least guys who preform at the top 10 of their positional rankings despite not making it into the top rounds of a regular snake draft.  In dynasty it makes sense to blow up and target youth at some point over the years, because the pool of fa is scraped almost baren outside of rookies.

 
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