POP & LOCK > RB1 TIER > Who's a lock... and whose bubble will pop? (1 Viewer)

Concept is simple.... 

Pick 3 players you expect to be a LOCK to finish as a RB1
Pick 3 players whose bubbles you expect to POP and they finish outside the RB1 tier

Ratings based on FFCalc ADP PPR Scoring.

After checking the boxes above, offer your rationale below. 

More to come.... 

I pick six each because why would anyone Read instructions.

I went CMC, Cook, and Zeke for the possible RB1 finishers.  If CMC and Cook stay healthy they should battle for the top spot.  If they miss time then I think Zeke has a shot if Dallas stays healthy (Dak & WR's & O-line) then Zeke will get the volume and opportunity.

For the pops I had Ekeler, Jones, and Barkley.  I just don't have confidence in Ekeler.  He is fine but I don't think he can withstand the workload it would need to be in this tier and stay healthy.  Jones is due for some regression and I think Rodgers is out to show what he is worth which will take TD's away from Jones  I also think Dillon may be used more than expected.  As far as Barkley goes he had a bad injury and I don't think he will be back to form until mid season.  

BobbyLayne said:

I pick six each because why would anyone Read instructions.

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I only picked 2 locks myself, because reading comprehension is for other people.

I have Cook & Chubb as locks for expected production. Cook defies reality, playing 17 games, thus breaking the space/time continuum.  Chubb finishes as the RB2, taking advantage of a 6 game absence from Hunt. 
:bold: 

Elliott, CMC, & Henry all finish outside of the top 7

:bold: 

Locks for me are CMC, Kamara and Henry

Pops are Cooks, Barkley and Harris

Locks are CMC, Cook, Kamara. Because they are good #insight

Pops are Taylor (QB situation), Barkley (injury), and Zeke (Pollard, hunch). 

Locks: Cook, Henry, Chubb - most likely to meet expectations, IMHO.

Pops: Barkley, Taylor, Gibson - Barkley going to be eased back in, and they might just keep it that way, depending on how Giants season is progressing, multiple factors working against Taylor at this point...WFTskins homer extraordinaire and big fan of Gibson, but not sure he even belongs in a RB 1-12 conversation, based on my opinion of how their offensive aggregates are going to work out.

-jb- said:

Locks are CMC, Cook, Kamara. Because they are good #insight

Pops are Taylor (QB situation), Barkley (injury), and Zeke (Pollard, hunch). 

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I find it interesting that everyone is downgrading Taylor because of the QB situation, but Kamara gets a pass with two mediocre QBs, one of which vultures TDs. We at least know that Taylor will get the volume as well as the GL carries.

3nOut said:

I find it interesting that everyone is downgrading Taylor because of the QB situation, but Kamara gets a pass with two mediocre QBs, one of which vultures TDs. We at least know that Taylor will get the volume as well as the GL carries.

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I've considered both and their situations. You make a good point. I think Kamara has a safer floor. Quite a bit of the Saints offense can roll on dump-offs to Kamara in the flat or on wheel routes, or other ways to get him in space. Most of those throws aren't very far, so whatever they have at QB will likely be able to execute them well & that offense can roll. He's still Kamara, and once he touches the ball he has a chance to score from anywhere. 

Taylor needs a functioning offense around him to be successful. By that I mean, the QB/WR/TE group needs to be respected of he's going to see stacked boxes all day. We don't yet know if his receiving role will increase - they still have Hines. I've see a lot of "we hope his receptions increase" comments from FF writers, but we don't know. And if the Colts are going 3-and-out or turning the ball over, JT's value sinks further. Then look at the schedule over the 1st 5 weeks. It's brutal. On a 5-star scale that I created on the fly (ok, it was Yikes!), it averaged a 4.4 Yikes. 

Yikes. 

I would probably take a chance at Kamara at 3 PPR. I have a very hard time taking Taylor at 3-4-5-6-12-14 really he's a mid 2nd for me given the situation. So I won't have him. 

Guess I'm on the "pop" side of Taylor. Can I go edit my vote?   

ETA: I just saw Kamara is only 7% lock, behind Elliott & Chubb. And I'm kinda lukewarm on Zeke rn. 

Boom locka locka.

That is all.

Mister CIA said:

Boom locka locka.

That is all.

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And "boom poppa locka" was right there, too. :(  

3nOut said:

I find it interesting that everyone is downgrading Taylor because of the QB situation, but Kamara gets a pass with two mediocre QBs, one of which vultures TDs. We at least know that Taylor will get the volume as well as the GL carries.

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Hot Sauce covered it well, but I will add one thing. My 8 year old son has the same amount of NFL starts as Jacob Eason. Jameis has 70. 

Hot Sauce Guy said:

Taylor needs a functioning offense around him to be successful.

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Was the Indy O with Rivers last year very functioning?

3nOut said:

Was the Indy O with Rivers last year very functioning?

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The offense last year with rivers provided the expectation of competence yes.

Now, competence has varying degrees. They weren’t great. But Rivers is a QB that knows how to throw the football & run an offense, and the defense has to respect that ability. The QBs in Indy behind Wentz don’t command that level of respect. 

I believe I expanded on this point above well beyond what you quoted here. 

LOCKS: Cook, Kamara, Chubb... tough to leave McCaffrey out here.

POPS: A. Jones, Barkley, Zeke... Jones always seems to get nicked up, Barkley still INJ, and Zeke just did not look explosive last season to me.

Hot Sauce Guy said:

Mister CIA said:

Boom locka locka.

That is all.

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And "boom poppa locka" was right there, too. :(

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I missed it by this much.