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CeeDee vs Mclaurin vs ARob (1 Viewer)

X

xenon

Footballguy
I am finding these guys grouped together and often available as 3 round receivers.

Who would you take and why and how would you rank them?

 
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I have McLaurin pretty clearly at the top of that list. I think he's a star, and he's done it with as bad a QB situation as anyone the last 2 seasons, to the point where adding Fitzpatrick, almost feels like adding  a Pro Bowl QB. I think there is a Stefon Diggs level upside with McLaurin.

I have Lamb 2nd. I've been slowly coming around on him, though I'm still a ways from calling him a top-10 WR. I think its a crowded WR room there, and its unlikely Dak puts up similar numbers to what he did the first month of last season, which to be fair was a 6,000 yard pace. 

I have Robinson last, and its not really a knock on him, I just think the Bears have a more well rounded offense than they had in 2019-2020. While Robinson will likely have the best QB of his career regardless of who starts, that is a double edged sword as the better a QB is, the less often he will force it to one guy. Hell, Robinson's best season came with Blake Bortles. I also think the team will likely get more run heavy as soon as Fields takes over, and I think that could be pretty quickly. 

 
I like all 3 this year. I would put Lamb at the top because of better surrounding talent. I see DAL in a lot of shootouts this year. 

 
I think Lamb has the most talent/upside...

But I urge you (and everyone) to look at ARob's PPR career in fantasy, with literal tree stumps at QB. Man is a monster. 

 
xenon said:
I am finding these guys grouped together and often available as 3 round receivers.

Who would you take and why and how would you rank them?
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Really depends on the flow of the draft up to that point. 

If I’ve started out RB-RB, I’m probably more inclined to take ARob bc he has (BY FAR) the safest floor. Four of the last six seasons 150+ targets, B2B seasons in the Top Ten, all with terrible QBs. Lay aside the Fields equation for a moment - Andy freaking Dalton is the best QB he’s ever played with. Virtually no competition for targets (you cannot say that about the the younger players.) Best in the league, by a good margin, in contested catches the last two years. He’s a master craftsman.

If I began the draft RB-WR, I probably already have a safe floor target hog so Id want your match him up with a younger breakout WR. Between the sophomore and the 3rd year man, think I would take Lamb almost time. Better offense, more stable QB. But you really can’t go wrong here. Both have incredible upside this year.

 
FF about talent and opportunity....for me the talent could possibly be a coin flip here between all three....so for me its about opportunity....I put Arob behind the other two just because I for some reason don't ever seem to have that much confidence in the Bears offense.....I don't feel Dalton is as big of an upgrade over what they have had in the past as some others think....plus as the only real receiving threat, he will be getting the toughest coverage....being the only real option doesn't always mean you get extra targets....not sure Dalton is good enough to force feed him no matter what like Brees did with Thomas or something....so I have the other two ahead of him

I think we all think DAL will put up a ton of points, so I generally lean that direction when trying to get a piece of pie....Lamb gets slight nod over McC for me but I could easily see it going the other way now with Fitz in town....WAS DST is pretty beastly so I don't see a ton of game scripts where Fitz is having to do his Fitz thing and chuck it all over....however they should get plenty of possessions and good field position which also leads to points.....but I see DAL wanting and more importantly needing to throw more in high scoring games...and Lamb is probably better than Cooper right now, even though the torch maybe hasn't officially been passed.....Dak will know where his bread is buttered the best and Lamb has the goods to be open a lot...although I like what WAS did in off season too....McC won't have to carry all the mail.....Lamb/McC/Arob....based on opportunity more than anything else...

 
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ARob is consistently underrated, and he's about to play with the best QBs he's had in forever. IMO he's easily 1 on this list. 

McClaurin is capable of big things with Brad Johnson, so I've got him 2. 

Lamb is a player on the rise, but I see a 1A / 1B situation in Dallas, and he lands 3rd for me. He seems to be going later than ARob & McClaurin, ADP-wise, so not sure why they'd be lumped together.  Though in WR-only rankings I guess they're probably closer. 

 
lol - I replied before reading through I love that everyone has them ranked differently. Clears it right up! 

:lol:  

Happy to see FBG agrees with me in their rankings, though they may have different reasons. 

 
travdogg said:
I have McLaurin pretty clearly at the top of that list. I think he's a star, and he's done it with as bad a QB situation as anyone the last 2 seasons, to the point where adding Fitzpatrick, almost feels like adding  a Pro Bowl QB. I think there is a Stefon Diggs level upside with McLaurin.

. 
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ARob has done it with bad QB play too so if you have Terry clearly at the top based on that, you can't then put ARob at the bottom when he has clearly done the same & A LOT LONGER THAN TERRY HAS

 
It’s kind of funny - general consensus of FF community - we have no problem seeing McLaurin and Lamb moving 10-15 spots. It’s such a widely held view we practically expect it. 

But ARob staying where he’s been at the last 2 years? 4 of the last 6 (really it’s 4 of the last 5 healthy seasons)? Naw man, worried about bad QB play, too big of a leap - even though bad QBs are all ARob has known (& produced with) his entire career.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
lol - I replied before reading through I love that everyone has them ranked differently. Clears it right up! 

:lol:  

Happy to see FBG agrees with me in their rankings, though they may have different reasons. 
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I think what this thread really tells you is to take the one you like the most if all 3 are there, or if you don’t have a preference and you pick again fairly soon on the turn, take another position and come back to whichever guy is left.

 
GroveDiesel said:
I think what this thread really tells you is to take the one you like the most if all 3 are there, or if you don’t have a preference and you pick again fairly soon on the turn, take another position and come back to whichever guy is left.
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or get 2/3! 

Just gotta pay attention to ADP & the needs of the teams around you. If you're at the 1.02 spot, ARob/Scary Terry at 2.11, then probably get Lamb in the 3rd. 

I mean, it's an option. Maybe not what I'd do, but hey, maybe I would depending on the flow of the draft. I could think of worse starts than Cook ~> ARob ~> Lamb.  :shrug:  

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
or get 2/3! 

Just gotta pay attention to ADP & the needs of the teams around you. If you're at the 1.02 spot, ARob/Scary Terry at 2.11, then probably get Lamb in the 3rd. 

I mean, it's an option. Maybe not what I'd do, but hey, maybe I would depending on the flow of the draft. I could think of worse starts than Cook ~> ARob ~> Lamb.  :shrug:  
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If I was inclined to do that - and wanted it to succeed - I think I’d take one of popular breakout picks (Lamb or McLaurin) first and leave the Vet for the back end.

People are so upside driven they’ll often take the riskier, perceived higher ceiling over the proven Vet. 

 
BobbyLayne said:
If I was inclined to do that - and wanted it to succeed - I think I’d take one of popular breakout picks (Lamb or McLaurin) first and leave the Vet for the back end.

People are so upside driven they’ll often take the riskier, perceived higher ceiling over the proven Vet. 
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That's a good point. For me it would depend if both Lamb & AC were both there. I have them pretty even, so I'd take my choice of ARob or McClaurin & let fate decide the rest. Chances are strong that 1.01 isn't taking 2 Cowboys WRs. That would be a questionable, but not unprecedented move. 

e.g. I'm not going to risk losing a player I have projected higher because someone else might overrate another guy. So if ARob is my top WR available, I'mma take him and see what happens. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
lol - I replied before reading through I love that everyone has them ranked differently. Clears it right up! 

:lol:  

Happy to see FBG agrees with me in their rankings, though they may have different reasons. 
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They’re probably not as excited about Brad Johnson coming out of retirement to help Mclaurin as you are. ;)  

 
I noticed a couple comments along the lines of ARob having no competition for targets, but I think the other players around him will be better:

  • 2nd year WR Mooney looks like a possible breakout player
  • 2nd year TE Kmet should be ready to make a bigger contribution
  • RB Cohen should be back, though he is recovering from a torn ACL last season; he had 104 targets in 2019, compared to just 9 last season
I'm sure ARob will still lead the Bears in targets by a healthy margin, but I expect his target share will be lower than in 2020.

 
Helaire-ious said:
ARob has done it with bad QB play too so if you have Terry clearly at the top based on that, you can't then put ARob at the bottom when he has clearly done the same & A LOT LONGER THAN TERRY HAS
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I think this is very flawed logic, and missed my point. Its not an apples to apples thing, Washington and Chicago are very different teams with likely very different QBs. 

 
Just Win Baby said:
I noticed a couple comments along the lines of ARob having no competition for targets, but I think the other players around him will be better:

  • 2nd year WR Mooney looks like a possible breakout player
  • 2nd year TE Kmet should be ready to make a bigger contribution
  • RB Cohen should be back, though he is recovering from a torn ACL last season; he had 104 targets in 2019, compared to just 9 last season
I'm sure ARob will still lead the Bears in targets by a healthy margin, but I expect his target share will be lower than in 2020.
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I am of the opinion that more capable WRs makes things easier for ARob.

his volume may well decease if Mooney & Kmet prove to be capable receivers, but ARob also saw a ton of coverage, so this could loosen things up for him.

So I don’t disagree with you - I’m just not sure it’s a negative. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I am of the opinion that more capable WRs makes things easier for ARob.

his volume may well decease if Mooney & Kmet prove to be capable receivers, but ARob also saw a ton of coverage, so this could loosen things up for him.

So I don’t disagree with you - I’m just not sure it’s a negative. 
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Well, I said that I expect lower target share. Lower target share is indeed a negative, unless it is offset by stronger performance per target. I assume that's what you are saying here. Will be interesting to see. I could see that going either way.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Well, I said that I expect lower target share. Lower target share is indeed a negative, unless it is offset by stronger performance per target. I assume that's what you are saying here. Will be interesting to see. I could see that going either way.
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That’s exactly my point. If he gets 5% fewer targets, but gets five more touchdowns because of the efficiency, I don’t think anyone is going to complain. 

now I’m just pulling numbers out of a hat right there, but I think we are on the same page.

 
travdogg said:
I think this is very flawed logic, and missed my point. Its not an apples to apples thing, Washington and Chicago are very different teams with likely very different QBs. 
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Are you ranking the 3 WRs or the whole teams now? The thread was ranking 3 WRs, not the whole roster...

 
One of the things no one has mentioned is that Fitzmagic can elevate a good player into a star, as keeps going back to his guy over and over.  He did it with Parker in Miami and if McLaurin is "his guy", I would have a similar expectation for McLaurin as well. 

 
Helaire-ious said:
Are you ranking the 3 WRs or the whole teams now? The thread was ranking 3 WRs, not the whole roster...
Click to expand...
I honestly have no idea what you are asking me. Are you implying that a WR's fantasy value is independent of the team they are on? If so, then I couldn't disagree more. Or are you ranking them by how good they are NFL wise and not fantasy wise, in which case your earlier point about Robinson v. McLaurin makes sense, but isn't really what this thread is about.

McLaurin has put up very good numbers with arguably the NFL's worst QB situation over the last 2 years, he received a huge QB upgrade this offseason. You said that Robinson also put up great numbers with bad QB play, and for longer, which I agree with, but he didn't receive a huge QB upgrade(though long-term Fields likely is, just unlikely as a rookie) and in fact, may actually see a downgrade as the offense will likely become a lot more run heavy when Fields takes over. 

tangfoot said:
Okay, now add Keenan Allen to this mix
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McLaurin has a 141 2/3rds% chance of winning?

I'd say McLaurin>>Lamb>Allen>Robinson.

 
Keith1 said:
One of the things no one has mentioned is that Fitzmagic can elevate a good player into a star, as keeps going back to his guy over and over.  He did it with Parker in Miami and if McLaurin is "his guy", I would have a similar expectation for McLaurin as well. 
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I like Fitzmagic as much as anyone. You’re correct, he’s been amazing for WR value.

He’s also played on a lot of crappy teams that didn’t have a defense aa good as Washington’s.

And he’s not….young. Not to be ageist, but one of those hits is gonna break a hip at some point. And not for nuthin, he seems to have a knack for getting replaced during the season. Not sure if that’s in the cards this year though. 

if Fitz is healthy all year, I agree McClairin could have a really nice season. But there are other concerns for him with WFT. More receiving targets, greater emphasis on the run, and a defense good enough to prevent the shootouts Fitz got into in NYJ, BUF, MIA, etc. 

Also, looking over Firzmagic’s career, it feels like the legend of Fitzmagic > actual Fitzmagic. He’s actually been somewhat inconsistent over the years. WTF is hoping they get the bearded beast who threw for nearly 4000 yards a couple of times. But that’s not reliably who he is.

I’m not saying McClaurin can’t be better than ARob, Lamb or Allen,  but it feels like there are some peripheral things that could cap his ceiling. 

 
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Taking all three at face value it is hard to really go for a preference, but rather say they are all the same tier. Now, to nitpick and answer the question, here is my take:

ARob:  talent is there, ability is there, the targets are there, and the qb play will be improved. He plays in a division where shootouts happen.  His only knock is he is the oldest of the three and will play in the worst weather. 
 

F1:  again, talent, targets, and qb play are there. He plays in a division where defense is really bad outside of themselves.The downside: great defense so lower scoring, and fitz likes to spread it around. He likely still gets 120+ targets but he could also get 100.  
 

Lamb:  all the talent in the world, but, qb play may be problematic (if you give me 100% dak I change this, but dak already banged up) targets will be spread between him, coop, Gallup. Jarwin etc, and finally; I’m not sure the game plan will be to get him 120+ targets so TDs will matter. 
 

by volume I’d go arob, f1, and then lamb and targets are king. I’d give lamb the TD variance lead but I think if all three are there I go Robinson and McLaurin. 
 

edit to add: if we add Keenan Allen to this mix I take Allen and a rob or Allen and maclaurin. (Need to look at the bye weeks to split hairs there)

 
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Years ago, it was Allen Burns vs Allen Robinson. Oh, how times have changed. I think the focus should be on ceiling. Have we seen Robinson's ceiling? If yes, then its easily McLaurin and Lamb because they have not peaked. To play devil's advocate to my own argument, Robinson is at the age where WRs peak, so I think this year, in a redraft, they are the same tier.

 
Is Dak going to be the opening day starter? will he play 17 games? why does he need to see the Texas Rangers medical staff to consult about his shoulder? 

is his shoulder injury the equivalent of Tommy John injury to the elbow area?? why is Dallas being so secretive about it? Why is he throwing non-football objects but not actual footballs yet??

Getting cold feet here. not feeling all warm and fuzzy about Dak. Does this hurt Lamb? maybe. probably. 

 
McLaurin for me but it is so close.   I really like Lamb but Daks shoulder and Cooper taking a big chunk of targets knocked him down just enough.  

 
McLaurin and Lamb are going to get they hype and shiny new toy treatment so they are generally going to be taken before A-Rob.  A-Rob is just that safe pick that nobody says much about and you really aren't excited to take but he always performs and is a very nice WR2 to have on the roster.  

I would rank them this way for best combo of floor/ceiling:

  1. A-Rob (safest)
  2. Lamb (highest ceiling)
  3. McLaurin  
I actually would really like to end up with at least two of these guys.  

 
1. Allen Robinson. Always put up good fantasy numbers but now he has a good QB.

2. McLauren. He’s the WR1 in Washington and now has Fitz.

3. Very talented WRs but he’s 1A with Cooper. Other good receivers and TEs there as well. Dallas has a tougher schedule than the other two.

NOTE:  Reverse the order in a keeper/dynasty league.

 
Just Win Baby said:
WFT was 9th in pass attempts last season with 601. 
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Really?  Weird - I just read something this AM that had them as one of the bottom teams - maybe it was efficiency? 

Hmm....I don't doubt your statement, just trying to remember what it was in the article I'd read. 

My bad I'll edit my post. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Really?  Weird - I just read something this AM that had them as one of the bottom teams - maybe it was efficiency? 

Hmm....I don't doubt your statement, just trying to remember what it was in the article I'd read. 

My bad I'll edit my post. 
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Washington has the worst QBr rating in the NFL by a huge margin. So yes, they threw a lot, but sadly a ton of incompletions with the dung we had at QB last year. 

 
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