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Climate Change -- Landmark report issues dire warnings (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter gianmarco
- Start date
gianmarco
Footballguy
If it ends up being moved, so be it. There's nothing political meant about it. This is science and any comments or discussions were meant to be related to that. Would be nice to keep it that way.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Humanity will adapt. We might not like a lot of the results but we will adapt
beer 30
Footballguy
How so? I know that's very broad based and not asking you specifically for specific examples but thinking this through, it will take a massive effort to effect change on what is coming so I assume by your response, you are less than optimistic we (humanity, not just the US) address now and simply make concessions to our everyday life and "deal" with it. For the record I agree, no one is going to do much of anything to try to change the course we seem to be going down. And finger pointing aside, how would we? The US is at least making an effort as are most of the G8 but I look at China & India and think, our efforts are completely wiped out by these two countries not giving a ####.
Interesting discussion but methinks relatively pointless at this point.
culdeus
Footballguy
At a high level, people will die from either direct effects (fires and floods) or indirect effects of being forced to migrate. This was first evident with 9/11. The people involved in that attack and that continue to propagate extremism are doing so because primarily their lives are upended by the inability to farm their lands, not because they really truly believe in some stupid cause. The same reason drives migrants to our borders, hurricanes and fires and floods will continue to put people at our doorsteps.
How should this be prevented
-Global population reduction is step 1. All efforts should be made to reduce the population in the short and long term. China, while doing not much, has done the most in this area and we will one day thank them. Policy wise need to de-incentivize all people from having children and pay people to become sterile. Every nation on the planet needs to be finding ways to cut their population. No other item has nearly as much impact on our future.
-Plant trees is step 2. Replanting huge portions of the planet with trees is the easiest step to reverse global climate effects, has minimal costs and pays huge dividends. It's a lot faster than carbon capture vaportech and the like.
Do those two things, odds are we make it out of here alive. Maybe.
beer 30
Footballguy
So as I mentioned, there is no way #1 happens in any place other than a complete dictatorship like China & North Korea so while that would have an impact, it's pretty much a non-starter.
#2 I agree 100% with but just in my little slice of the world, we continue to cut down forests for housing tracts. The fact that so many people want to live in SC is only possible by artificially conditioning the air to make it livable (as is the case with most of the south. At some point I feel like that is going to play a part in this population migration that will occur as we continue to waste resources trying to support population in areas that doesn't support population (which gets back to your 1st point).
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
im not trying to say everything will be fine or that we shouldn’t try to reduce it, just saying that long term we will deal with the consequences one way or another…and it will probably suck for a lot of people
people may lose land and inland cities become coastal cities
Certain crops and animals may disappear but something else will take its place
culdeus
Footballguy
#1 is happening in nearly all parts of the developed world, naturally, even where not forced. It's a requirement for all of us to come out of this alive. The world is below the replacement rate as a whole for the first time perhaps ever since plague times. That momentum might continue. Providing free contraception and incentivized sterility at 1 child or 0 child is a difficult concept and can be done horribly, but we have few choices.
And some crops will be grown further north, such as mangoes in Mississippi and maybe a longer growing season for soy and wheat in the Midwest. So, some positive effects.
But, right now, coastal cities on the east and gulf coasts of the USA are experiencing negative effects of sea-level rise. It's a slow process, but if it accelerates, 30-year mortgages will be hard to come by in the near future. I heard that prediction 10 years ago and so far it hasn't stopped buying and building on barrier islands. Small towns in Florida and other states won't be able to afford to build the infrastructure to delay the inevitable. Rich cities, like Miami Beach, have already spent hundreds of millions in a plan known as Rising Above
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
What's frustrating about this issue to me is the lack of agency at an individual level to make a positive impact. I could become the composting and recycling guru, spend the rest of my life planting trees, never drive a combustion engine vehicle again, and none of that is even a drop in the bucket compared to even one day of industry and government action/inaction at an international level. Heck, even at the township level. I can separate all my recycling until the cows come home, if my town doesn't take the proper steps after they pick it up what am I, as an individual, supposed to do about that? So I support measures to reduce climate change, of course. What I frown upon is the push down to individuals, as if that makes a difference. "If we all as individuals do our part..." Yeah sure. Governments and industries need to lead this charge. Can I do my part as an individual? Sure. Does that make any difference at all? Questionable, imo.
beer 30
Footballguy
I hear you and agree. Birth rates in the US and Europe are upside down are essentially break even right now if I recall. Again, we're talking about developed countries. China and India are both considered developed and to your earlier point, China undertook a population reduction stance decades ago. They are also suffering from it now and will likely see a marked decline in population size because of it. India doesn't seem to care or maybe they do but it's too late
I don't follow this nearly close enough to comment on it any way with confidence. I don't think telling the US you are limited to 1 kid and because you ####ers can't keep your #### in your pants, we're sterilizing that kid at birth. And we're going to do this for the next X amount of years. Might be what needs to happen but no way it occurs in my lifetime.
Long-term: Everything adapts. Humans have been adapting from the time they started migrating to new places. The planet itself, and all the ecosystems have always adapted to changing circumstances. 1000 years from now, the planet will undoubted look/feel very different, as population hubs come and go. But, I suspect those living at that time will be relatively comfortable with their surroundings - just as most of us our today.
But, its the short-term effects that will be painful - whenever they occur.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I wouldn't agree to something like this, but a $500 check after the procedure is completed? Sure. You've just saved the government tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of dollars over the next 18 years and then some. Plus the population control benefits of course.
Would you like me to fix all the environmental problems on the planet? I can do it. The solution’s simple. You won’t help. That’s the real problem. Stop having kids. [cheers and applause] You hear that? That’s not enough support. That’s why we have to contaminate the water. Because most of you are not on board yet. But that’s all that has to happen. Just stop having kids. And I’m not one of these people that cares about the planet. I hope it blows up the day after we’re gone. But stop having kids, and then we can have the greatest party for the next 60 to 70 years just pissing through all the natural resources. It would be amazing. But what happens? Some of you, you get fed up. You’re like, “Uh, I hate my life. You try.” [sputtering] [laughs] “Look, it looks like me.” Selfish. That’s what I think of your families… selfish. China has the right idea. They’re the smartest people on the planet. If they think boys are more important and two should be the cap, good enough for me. We have a TV show in our country called “19 and Counting.” That show should be called “Wrecked #####.” Shocking that one of those kids turned out to be a bad egg. You mean you can’t keep your eye on 19 children? You can’t be a good parent to three kids. Do you know how I know that? Because my parents had four. What are you gonna do when one of them asks, “Who do you lovemore?” “I love you all the same.” “Oh, really, a 19-way tie? #### you, Mom.” And you deserve that kind of language. You can’t sell a 19-way tie to anyone. You’re gonna have to be honest with those kids. Like, “All right, let’s see. “One of you’s a predator, so you’re out. “Not even sure these three are mine anymore. “No idea why the ginger’s staring at me. “You have no shot. “What, you think I enjoy dunking you in a tub of sunblock “just to bring you outside, you mutant? “What is your X-Men power besides killing every boner in every room you walk into?” I tease, redheads. You’re just as pretty as prettier people. The reason so many people in this country keep having litters of children are all these fertility drugs. You’re not gonna like this joke, heads up. Know that if you have to take a ton of fertility drugs to get pregnant, that is God just saying you’d be an awful parent. Yeah, maybe if you weren’t such a #### in your 30s, you’d be a mother in your 40s. Let’s be clear. I don’t want to do that joke. I have to do that joke because statistically that will ruin at least two people’s night this evening, and for some horrible reason which I can’t explain, that brings me joy to know that there’s a lady here right now just going, “#### him. I deserve a family too.” No, you don’t. You don’t. It’s called the American dream for a reason. It’s unrealistic. It’s not gonna happen for everyone. You want a kid so bad, adopt one, you selfish wench. We’re only halfway through this joke. Hang in there. You ever seen an orphanage? I ask this from time to time because I know the answer. Most people haven’t. It’s a real problem in this country. There’s kids that need homes, yet where they’re located is a gosh darn mystery. You’d think that’d be a crucial part of the orphanage’s business plan… being very accessible. Like, “Hey, hey, we’re over here.” Nobody’s ever given me directions to their place, been like, “You go to the orphanage. “You take a right. My house is right there. You can’t miss it.” Maybe this is a better way. You ever go to a grocery store on a Saturday and out front, they have a pen set up for rescue dogs? I’m not imp– I’m not implying putting the orphans in. I’m just pointing out that that’s also a real problem. They were smart enough to realize, bring the problem to us, shove it in our face, makes the problem go away. Now set up a nicer pen. Put it in the shade. If you can afford Whole Foods, you can afford another child. And if you can’t, at least put some hand sanitizer on and sit in there and play for a couple minutes. That’s the very least you could do.
- Daniel Tosh
- Daniel Tosh
culdeus
Footballguy
I hear you and agree. Birth rates in the US and Europe are upside down are essentially break even right now if I recall. Again, we're talking about developed countries. China and India are both considered developed and to your earlier point, China undertook a population reduction stance decades ago. They are also suffering from it now and will likely see a marked decline in population size because of it. India doesn't seem to care or maybe they do but it's too late
We are less than 100 years from a country systematically killing all people of the Jewish faith in and near their borders. For no reason at all.
For doing something with a reason, good or bad, is well within the grasp of humans.
beer 30
Footballguy
trader jake
Footballguy
That's the "beauty" of most recycling info out there...it puts almost all of the messaging toward and burden on individuals. It's the corporations that continue to use plastic for everything, governments taking very few actions, etc where the real changes need to occur. Yet we'll continue to see recycling after recycling messages directed toward individuals. At this point it's insulting to consumers.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
I have of those big ### 96 gallon recycling bins that is pretty much full every week. I figure 90% of it just ends up in the landfill anyway
Galileo
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Yes, this wasn’t ever going to get political. An inherently political solution got political? Quelle suprise!
rockaction
Footballguy
ZPG sounds apolitical. So was Malthus. Both had incorrect premises and lousy and inhuman approaches.
culdeus
Footballguy
I don't see this as a political issue. Politics likely won't be involved in solving it. Industry is moving that direction without it.
Gawain
Footballguy
I do the vast majority of my shopping at Costco. Food, appliances, clothing and toys I try to buy there both for their stance on employee relations and to mitigate the environmental impact of driving between a dozen places.
I worked at a company that landed a wall hardware, one time buy with Costco. 60,000 color boxes with acetate windows were printed with the back panel upside down. All 60,000 were junked, right to some landfill in Yantian. I buy cucumbers at Costco, three individually wrapped cukes in plastic, with a heavier plastic wrap holding the three together.
I'm somewhere between a tax and a ban on disposable plastic. Terrible for the environment, cheap to make, impossible for companies to give up. The plastic bag fight is a feel good story, but our reliance on plastics goes way, way too deep.
I worked at a company that landed a wall hardware, one time buy with Costco. 60,000 color boxes with acetate windows were printed with the back panel upside down. All 60,000 were junked, right to some landfill in Yantian. I buy cucumbers at Costco, three individually wrapped cukes in plastic, with a heavier plastic wrap holding the three together.
I'm somewhere between a tax and a ban on disposable plastic. Terrible for the environment, cheap to make, impossible for companies to give up. The plastic bag fight is a feel good story, but our reliance on plastics goes way, way too deep.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
its probably half full of white claw boxes and amazon boxes from my wifeThat means you're using too much sh!t.
edit: but yes we buy too much ####
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trader jake
Footballguy
The invisible hand will only move the exact amount it has to in order to maximize profits and stay within a relatively safe legal zone. Any other goal is so far removed from consideration it almost doesn't exist.
An outright ban seems counterproductive at this point. Something has to change though.
Thankfully (based on Culdeus' post above) industries will largely move without being compelled to do so with self improvements to protect us all. Like when cigarette companies added labels and restricted advertising, car companies willingly increased safety standards, lead was removed from gasoline by petroleum companies, etc etc etc. The magic of corporations doing the right thing without being forced to through legislative acts...awesome!!
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Cold Dead Hands
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
The bigger issue above climate change, is that the world has only a finite amount of certain resources. The lack of certain resources will put a hard cap on the energy needed.
You see this in copper mining, 10% of the planet's copper has been mined. Most of it is recycled because it's easy. The rare earths that we need for our monitors and phones. Nobody has a clue how to replace those. There's dozens of things like that which will hit hard, the shortages in some sectors will ultimately make us more efficient, consume less not because we want to but because we have to. Once that feedback loop gets started the world will course correct, not before perhaps 1-2B people are dead of disease, hunger, and war.
Zero question we have reached peak planet earth at least for the next 100 years.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
Thanos was right.
trader jake
Footballguy
We must have different magic 8 balls than each other good buddy. Yours appears to rely a bit much on a zero sum game style future.
Humans rarely "consume less because they have too" and more often move toward different types of consumption or other solutions. People didn't just use less whale blubber for their lamps and slowly suffer a less illuminated world...they improvised, discovered, and invented their way out of the impending problem. The same will occur with copper alternatives, various rare earth elements, etc.
As climate change continues, more and more people/companies/governments will eventually put in their time, energy, and resources into solving the problems. It doesn't mean the solutions will be easy (see vaccines and masks of late) but eventually humans will find ways to adapt.
If we've "reached peak Earth for the next 100 years" and "1-2 billion people die" that would seem to be in the bottom 1% of outcomes to me. Paradigm shifts, advancements in technology, and an acceptance of facts can occur much more quickly when the problems become too big to ignore. Are we there yet with climate change? Not sure, but more and more seem to be noticing real problems now. It's getting difficult to ignore.
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
If Americans can't rally enough to stop a virus that's killed one in every 500 people in the country, there's no hope anything will ever get done on climate change.
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culdeus
Footballguy
Bottom 1% of outcome is we reach a tipping point with O2 generation and 100% of people die. That is easily in the 1/100 odds range.
Losing a billion people due to population controls, or simply a combination of population and famine seems very realistic.
How the world manages a situation where affected people come to less affected countries is what will determine how many people die. Huge swaths of India may not be inhabitable. Hell, same could happen to California. Those spots are rare, but not unique and will require different solutions.
jimmy b
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
California, Vegas, Arizona are all whistling past the graveyard
zoonation
Footballguy
That’s a very optimistic outlook you have. Climate change could create conditions (species extinction, catastrophic soil erosion) that could threaten the human species. Say bees go. That’s a big problem that isn’t solved by “something will replace it”.
How soon will this be catastrophic ? Not in our lifetimes, of course. But not that far off relatively speaking.
So, I agree life will survive it, I’m just not sure what life it will be.
Gawain
Footballguy
How do you mitigate the impact of climate change over the next 50-100 years for you and your loved ones? Wife and I debated NC and upstate NY when moving off of Long Island. Climate change and fresh water access was a big reason we opted to go north.
Thinking that solar generation capabilities become more and more important as heat strains electrical grids. Small homestead and water storage are likely a positive, but I’m not sure if a necessity. If we are nearing peak population, do assets start a devaluation?
Thinking that solar generation capabilities become more and more important as heat strains electrical grids. Small homestead and water storage are likely a positive, but I’m not sure if a necessity. If we are nearing peak population, do assets start a devaluation?
culdeus
Footballguy
Anyone anywhere in Florida is on borrowed time before insurance pulls the plug. That and California water are the two big migrations the US will face. Texas is well positioned for both green energy and with space to grow. I mean the I35 corridor has plenty of water.
If I was under 50 in Florida I would be looking for a way out ASAP. Or at least renting.
Orlando is 80 feet above sea-level. Central Florida will be good during our lifetime.
Florida Flood Map/Elevation Map | Sea Level Rise (0 - 100m)
culdeus
Footballguy
The issue will be insurance. The entire Florida way of life depends on insurance companies making money. No insurance, no loans. FEMA based insurance has limits and at some point they just say they are out, here's a check for your lot.
The insurability line will get drawn somewhere. If that's Orlando, good for Disney I guess.
Insurance companies aren't charities. That will ultimately hit Texas hard too with the hail. Hail exclusions and deductibles are already hitting people.
This will hurt. Everyone.
The water is sure getting hot. From Brian McNoldy, a researcher at UM's Marine school.
>>The water temperature measured at Virginia Key (just east of #Miami) has set new record highs on 17 of the past 20 days, including the all-time record high of 93.2°F on Aug 1. And on 3 days during this stretch, the daily LOW water temp was a record 91.2°. http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/vk/<<
https://mobile.twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1424686814326046725
>>The water temperature measured at Virginia Key (just east of #Miami) has set new record highs on 17 of the past 20 days, including the all-time record high of 93.2°F on Aug 1. And on 3 days during this stretch, the daily LOW water temp was a record 91.2°. http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/vk/<<
https://mobile.twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1424686814326046725
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Lol what warnings?
They done with the warnings. They directly said we're ####ed in the immediate.
And MAYBE we can do something for future generations.
They done with the warnings. They directly said we're ####ed in the immediate.
And MAYBE we can do something for future generations.
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culdeus
Footballguy
I mean we saw what it looked like when who knows 10-40k migrants hit our doorstep. What happens when it's 1Billion?
That scenario needs to be played out. The US is actually really well positioned to weather this thing (so to speak). China is also. The very hearty well developed economies should be fine because there is diversity in the land, you can plant stuff more north/south etc. We will be fine, so will they. People will come pouring to the gates of both our societies.
Europe is in a horrible way if the gulf stream shuts down. Western Europe is the major exception to the developed economies will survive. They will absolutely be destroyed by this well before the US and need to migrate to Russia, have fun with that.
We need to ask ourselves, are we willing to let people die to preserve our way of life? Who and how many? I say we are ready to let half the world starve without even blinking. This last year more or less proved what selfish a-holes we can be when we want to.
That scenario needs to be played out. The US is actually really well positioned to weather this thing (so to speak). China is also. The very hearty well developed economies should be fine because there is diversity in the land, you can plant stuff more north/south etc. We will be fine, so will they. People will come pouring to the gates of both our societies.
Europe is in a horrible way if the gulf stream shuts down. Western Europe is the major exception to the developed economies will survive. They will absolutely be destroyed by this well before the US and need to migrate to Russia, have fun with that.
We need to ask ourselves, are we willing to let people die to preserve our way of life? Who and how many? I say we are ready to let half the world starve without even blinking. This last year more or less proved what selfish a-holes we can be when we want to.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Maggot Brain
Footballguy
Cross posted these in the other climate thread earlier.
https://tekdeeps.com/the-gulf-stream-is-about-to-collapse-sweden-can-become-uninhabitable/
https://globalnews.ca/news/8089039/gulf-stream-collapse-study-canada-europe/
https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/environment/953735/what-is-the-gulf-stream-and-what-would-happen-if-it-collapsed
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Appreciate it. Seems like the just of these is that the collapse of the gulf stream will leave cold northern places even colder. Anything on the implications for other parts of Western Europe like Portugal or inland like Germany?
Time to invest in real estate near the Great Lakes...
Texas energy has a lot of issues. Yes, they have a lot of renewable established but this winter showed they need more development.
culdeus
Footballguy
The panhandle and much of west Texas could power the damn country on wind and solar provided there wasn't cable loss. The issue is you have some nimby stuff with the mills. Big bags of cash help that.
