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"WR is sooooo deep this year!" - is it though? Discuss (1 Viewer)

Hot Sauce Guy

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I keep hearing this, but mocking 12-team, PPR, Flex and going RB-heavy with elite TE, I keep not seeing this phenomenal depth everyone keeps talking about. 

Who are your top 10 WRs outside of the 1st 5 rounds (e.g. round 6 and later)?

Who are your top 20? 

Would love to get an in-depth discussion going as to why you feel these players are overlooked/deserve to be drafted higher, and why. 

I'm high on a few, sure, but largely it seems like many of the WRs being drafted outside the top 5 rounds have less than awesome chances of putting up top 20 numbers. 

I get a guy like Fuller, who I am very high on, who was the WR8 last year (including a game he caught 0 passes) but the Tua/MIA/1-game suspension seems to be baked into his price. And IIRC he's going in the 5th anyway, so...

So yeah - let's see those lists and your reasons why these WRs will be the super duper deep grabs that will make me not embarrassed by running them out as my WR trio if I go RB-WR-RB-TE-QB. 

6th round or later ADP is the qualifier here. 

Go!

:pickle:  

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
I keep hearing this, but mocking 12-team, PPR, Flex and going RB-heavy with elite TE, I keep not seeing this phenomenal depth everyone keeps talking about. 

Who are your top 10 WRs outside of the 1st 5 rounds (e.g. round 6 and later)?

Who are your top 20? 

Would love to get an in-depth discussion going as to why you feel these players are overlooked/deserve to be drafted higher, and why. 

I'm high on a few, sure, but largely it seems like many of the WRs being drafted outside the top 5 rounds have less than awesome chances of putting up top 20 numbers. 

I get a guy like Fuller, who I am very high on, who was the WR8 last year (including a game he caught 0 passes) but the Tua/MIA/1-game suspension seems to be baked into his price. And IIRC he's going in the 5th anyway, so...

So yeah - let's see those lists and your reasons why these WRs will be the super duper deep grabs that will make me not embarrassed by running them out as my WR trio if I go RB-WR-RB-TE-QB. 

6th round or later ADP is the qualifier here. 

Go!

:pickle:  
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Glad I’m not the only one HSG. I have it Adams, Diggs, Hill, Ridley and Hopkins.

After that there just feel like a group of guys lumped in that I’m not in love with and will probably go another position.

I feel there are more RBs that I could get later and be good with rather then WRs.

 
Go with the pros. Go RB-RB-RB-QB then WR/WR and catch a falling Godwin and ascend for a Claypool and reap the profits. Profit$$$$$$$$$$$$$

JK, I just did that in a FFA draft. Fun times.

Your larger point is taken. I think there a ton of mid-round RBs that will be league winners. No Dead Zone there. Swift's stock is dropping, though, the longer his groin injury lingers.

Cue Ted Danson from Cheers.

A groin injury...a groin injury...you don't know what it's like to have a groin injury.

 
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How is this year any different than any other year? There are always a boatload of potential WR4s with upside to be WR3s.

Looking quickly at the WR ADP list in PPR leagues . . .

Brandin Cooks (WR38 Pick 92) - He's been Top 15 on what, 4 teams now?
Antonio Brown (WR43 Pick 105) - He was WR27 in PPG in his time in TB.
Michael Gallup (WR45 Pick 107) - Cooper still on the mend. Was WR18 based on PPG in 2019. Now starting to play the slot.
Nelson Agholor (WR61 Pick 175) - NE offense will be a lot better and Agholor was tearing up camp. The Pats should pass a lot more this season.
Jakobi Meyers (WR74 Pick 214) - Agholor will get the deeper routes. Meyers will get everything underneath. Lots of receptions to be had. May not be a fantasy difference maker, but certainly could be a fill-in WR3 / bye week / injury replacement.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I keep hearing this, but mocking 12-team, PPR, Flex and going RB-heavy with elite TE, I keep not seeing this phenomenal depth everyone keeps talking about. 

Who are your top 10 WRs outside of the 1st 5 rounds (e.g. round 6 and later)?

Who are your top 20? 

Would love to get an in-depth discussion going as to why you feel these players are overlooked/deserve to be drafted higher, and why. 

I'm high on a few, sure, but largely it seems like many of the WRs being drafted outside the top 5 rounds have less than awesome chances of putting up top 20 numbers. 

I get a guy like Fuller, who I am very high on, who was the WR8 last year (including a game he caught 0 passes) but the Tua/MIA/1-game suspension seems to be baked into his price. And IIRC he's going in the 5th anyway, so...

So yeah - let's see those lists and your reasons why these WRs will be the super duper deep grabs that will make me not embarrassed by running them out as my WR trio if I go RB-WR-RB-TE-QB. 

6th round or later ADP is the qualifier here. 

Go!

:pickle:  
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WRs I like with 6th round plus ADP:

- Aiyuk, Claypool, Juedy and Higgins: generally a good bet for sophomore WRs who were good prospects, drafted highly and performed well in their rookie year (Jeudy had some struggles but to get as many targets as he got, he was doing something right). I feel like that's a pretty strong signal that these are good players. There are volume concerns but that's also why we are getting a discount on them. 

- Gallup and Antonio Brown: discounted way to buy into 2 exciting pass offenses

- Cooks and Fuller: veterans still in their prime who have repeatedly shown to be very productive players when healthy, both could find themselves as the WR1 on their team

- Elijah Moore, Terrace Marshall, Rondale Moore, ARSB, Nico : rookie WRs who could find themselves on the field making plays early in the season 

- Bryan Edwards: looks to be the starting X WR for the Raiders, cheap price to pay for a starting X WR on a decent passing offense 

 
Anarchy99 said:
How is this year any different than any other year? There are always a boatload of potential WR4s with upside to be WR3s.

Looking quickly at the WR ADP list in PPR leagues . . .

Brandin Cooks (WR38 Pick 92) - He's been Top 15 on what, 4 teams now?
Antonio Brown (WR43 Pick 105) - He was WR27 in PPG in his time in TB.
Michael Gallup (WR45 Pick 107) - Cooper still on the mend. Was WR18 based on PPG in 2019. Now starting to play the slot.
Nelson Agholor (WR61 Pick 175) - NE offense will be a lot better and Agholor was tearing up camp. The Pats should pass a lot more this season.
Jakobi Meyers (WR74 Pick 214) - Agholor will get the deeper routes. Meyers will get everything underneath. Lots of receptions to be had. May not be a fantasy difference maker, but certainly could be a fill-in WR3 / bye week / injury replacement.
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Sure, I get that. 

But is running out 2 or 3 WR4-types the key to winning it all? 

Is the drop-off at those 2-3 roster spots off-set by the gains at RB/TE or maybe QB? 

I recently mocked from 2 on CBS & was able to go Cook ~> Gibson ~> ARob ~> Andrews ~> ETN

While I really liked that start, my WR2-3-4 were all kinda mediocre at best. Not a ton of upside, but probably safe floor 10 points/game. 

And that’s with a semi-elite WR in ARob. I’ve tried mocking RB-RB-Kittle-WR and woof - my WRs just look questionable as heck. 

So where’s all this depth I keep hearing about?  I see a couple targets each round,  but I’m not the only one targeting them. 

 
I take the OP's point as being that this WR pool isn't that deep and therefore the same as years past. Like the post above says there are always guys with big upside/big red flags. 

I like guys who have proven themselves over guys who people assume will. Give me a Cooks or Lockett who are mostly down in the rankings because people are bored by them, or at least not as enamored with compared to rookies or sophomores. 

 
rockaction said:
Cue Ted Danson from Cheers.
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Showing your age, Ted Danson is from the good place now.

Anyway, on topic - just a real quick glance at the pff ratings around 60+ gives me Aiyuk/Deebo, Boyd, Shenault, and OBJ.  I'd be fine with these guys as my whole WR room, because they basically already are.

 
Couple of things:

  • I think a lot of people that say that are:

    Playing in 0.5PPR, and/or
  • Starting 2 WRs rather than 3

So format matters. That said, if we're starting the conversation in round six, that can assume you have at least one already drafted, but probably two. These are the guys still on the board per ADP

  • Golladay
  • OBJ
  • Aiyuk
  • Chase
  • Thomas
  • Claypool
  • Higgins
  • JJSS
  • Sutton
  • Devonta Smith
  • Robbie
  • Chark
  • Jeudy
  • Cooks
  • Deebo
  • Boyd
  • Fuller
There are a number of guys on that list that I love, and a decent amount that I don't, but if you're telling me I can select my WR3 from that list, I feel pretty good about it.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Sure, I get that. 

But is running out 2 or 3 WR4-types the key to winning it all? 

Is the drop-off at those 2-3 roster spots off-set by the gains at RB/TE or maybe QB? 

I recently mocked from 2 on CBS & was able to go Cook ~> Gibson ~> ARob ~> Andrews ~> ETN

While I really liked that start, my WR2-3-4 were all kinda mediocre at best. Not a ton of upside, but probably safe floor 10 points/game. 

And that’s with a semi-elite WR in ARob. I’ve tried mocking RB-RB-Kittle-WR and woof - my WRs just look questionable as heck. 

So where’s all this depth I keep hearing about?  I see a couple targets each round,  but I’m not the only one targeting them. 
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Like I said, there are probably 25 guys that are all middle of the road that are all pretty similar in the WR35-60 category. I mean, you set the baseline of no WR in the Top 30 by ruling out the Top 6 rounds. How many can't miss guys do you expect there to be AFTER 30 guys were already drafted?

 
Ilov80s said:
WRs I like with 6th round plus ADP:

- Aiyuk, Claypool, Juedy and Higgins: generally a good bet for sophomore WRs who were good prospects, drafted highly and performed well in their rookie year (Jeudy had some struggles but to get as many targets as he got, he was doing something right). I feel like that's a pretty strong signal that these are good players. There are volume concerns but that's also why we are getting a discount on them. 
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I see those dudes sneaking into the 5th in PPR more and more. I like all of them. 

Ilov80s said:
- Gallup and Antonio Brown: discounted way to buy into 2 exciting pass offenses
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I frequently get AB mocking. Gallup always seems to get taken. I assume folks are concerned about age with AB. 

Ilov80s said:
- Cooks and Fuller: veterans still in their prime who have repeatedly shown to be very productive players when healthy, both could find themselves as the WR1 on their team
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I’m on board with both of these guys. I’m not able to land them consistently. Seems like people teach for both frequently. 

Ilov80s said:
- Elijah Moore, Terrace Marshall, Rondale Moore, ARSB, Nico : rookie WRs who could find themselves on the field making plays early in the season 

- Bryan Edwards: looks to be the starting X WR for the Raiders, cheap price to pay for a starting X WR on a decent passing offense 
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I could see taking 2-3 of these dudes late & hoping one is good enough to be a WR3, but I have concerns about how dependable they’d be as such. 

A good list though, thank you. Mine looks very similar. And that’s part of my concern - that everyone in my league will also be targeting these same 2-3 dudes every round. 

 
-jb- said:
Couple of things:

  • I think a lot of people that say that are:

    Playing in 0.5PPR, and/or
  • Starting 2 WRs rather than 3

So format matters. That said, if we're starting the conversation in round six, that can assume you have at least one already drafted, but probably two. These are the guys still on the board per ADP

  • Golladay
  • OBJ
  • Aiyuk
  • Chase
  • Thomas
  • Claypool
  • Higgins
  • JJSS
  • Sutton
  • Devonta Smith
  • Robbie
  • Chark
  • Jeudy
  • Cooks
  • Deebo
  • Boyd
  • Fuller
There are a number of guys on that list that I love, and a decent amount that I don't, but if you're telling me I can select my WR3 from that list, I feel pretty good about it.
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He had said in op that you're grabbing your wr2/3 from that list, but for some of those choices I'm a fan of them as my wr2.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Like I said, there are probably 25 guys that are all middle of the road that are all pretty similar in the WR35-60 category. I mean, you set the baseline of no WR in the Top 30 by ruling out the Top 6 rounds. How many can't miss guys do you expect there to be AFTER 30 guys were already drafted?
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and that’s sort of the point. It’s always presented by FF writers as an if/then. 

“If WR is this deep, then you should stack on positions that aren’t” 

I’ve definitely done this in the past & ive definitely had elite WR envy all year as a result. And the production I get at the more rare positions never seems to off-set the points I lose by having my WR2-3-4 being weaker than a lot of teams 2-3-4 who went WR early. 

 
wgoldsph said:
He had said in op that you're grabbing your wr2/3 from that list, but for some of those choices I'm a fan of them as my wr2.
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If it's your WR2, that means you likely have two solid RBs, a great WR1, a TE, and maybe a QB already. Absolutely nothing wrong with that as a start. I think part of the issue this year is less about choice, and more about lack of clarity. We always see a flattish curve on WR depth compared to other position, but it's even flatter this year...so tough to distinguish between what a WR2 and a WR3 even looks like. About 20 points separate WR24 and WR36 this year. Projections are obviously always massively flawed, but that's the conversation.

 
melancholy and the infinite sadness of WR3

After round 6, I like both Denver WRs. Jeudy is probably the right answer but Sutton checks all the boxes if he’s healthy. I like both veterans in the mid rounds (Mike Williams, AB, MJJ) and all the rookies @Ilov80s listed starting in round 13.

In 18 rounds I’m likely to draft 1 QB, 1 TE, and 8 each RBs/WRs. Most of the latter are upside lottery tickets, I’ve got 11-14 days to discard a couple of them for a streaming K & DST.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I see those dudes sneaking into the 5th in PPR more and more. I like all of them. 

I frequently get AB mocking. Gallup always seems to get taken. I assume folks are concerned about age with AB. 

I’m on board with both of these guys. I’m not able to land them consistently. Seems like people teach for both frequently. 

I could see taking 2-3 of these dudes late & hoping one is good enough to be a WR3, but I have concerns about how dependable they’d be as such. 

A good list though, thank you. Mine looks very similar. And that’s part of my concern - that everyone in my league will also be targeting these same 2-3 dudes every round. 
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All depends how sharp the league is and how much they kind of follow these yearly trends. On Underdog, it's super competitive and the WR thirst is strong because that's just how you have to build your team for best ball. In more traditional redraft leagues done on Yahoo, ESPN, etc. I don't think drafters are going to be quite so aggressive with WRs. 

As for those rookie WRs, most likely they are drop candidates after 3 weeks because that's just how rookies often go. That said, there talent is enough where it's worth paying to get that sneak peek. There upside is probably higher than the veterans being taken around them. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
and that’s sort of the point. It’s always presented by FF writers as an if/then. 

“If WR is this deep, then you should stack on positions that aren’t” 

I’ve definitely done this in the past & ive definitely had elite WR envy all year as a result. And the production I get at the more rare positions never seems to off-set the points I lose by having my WR2-3-4 being weaker than a lot of teams 2-3-4 who went WR early. 
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For starters, your best lineup may not be to just leave the same guys in every week. So you can have Not Top 30 receivers and still get Top 20 production week to week. And you can always make roster moves / trades/ waiver claims. And guys get hurt so receivers can take on more targets.

You are never going to draft 3 fantasy WR1's after 30 WRs were already drafted (unless you are playing with monkeys and orangutans. Winning at fantasy football takes work, and I will give several other owners in most leagues are competent and stay on top of things. If it were that easy, people would win every league they play in all the time.

 
Quality early, quantity late. For me that usually means RB/TE followed by a slew of WR, hoping a few work out. Where in all that to draft the QB is my main variant. 

 
Leroy Hoard said:
Quality early, quantity late. For me that usually means RB/TE followed by a slew of WR, hoping a few work out. Where in all that to draft the QB is my main variant. 
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I’ve been struggling with this as well. 
 

i *think* a couple QBs ranked outside the top ten have a chance to sneak into that range, but do any have top 5 upside? 

Hard call. And if I’m already taking a top 5 TE, that’s two early draft spots where I could have a semi-elite tier WR. 

The struggle is real. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I’ve been struggling with this as well. 
 

i *think* a couple QBs ranked outside the top ten have a chance to sneak into that range, but do any have top 5 upside? 

Hard call. And if I’m already taking a top 5 TE, that’s two early draft spots where I could have a semi-elite tier WR. 

The struggle is real. 
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If you think you can out move and out hustle your league during the season with FAs and WW then I am comfortable taking a TE and QB early. You just better be right about the guys you take because they need to hit big. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Leroy Hoard said:
Quality early, quantity late. For me that usually means RB/TE followed by a slew of WR, hoping a few work out. Where in all that to draft the QB is my main variant. 
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I’ve been struggling with this as well. 
 

i *think* a couple QBs ranked outside the top ten have a chance to sneak into that range, but do any have top 5 upside? 

Hard call. And if I’m already taking a top 5 TE, that’s two early draft spots where I could have a semi-elite tier WR. 

The struggle is real. 
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I always wait and it’s never hurt my team to keep adding value at RB/WR while other teams are adding QB6 or TE9. Especially this year when the bottom half of QB1 is Rodgers, Brady, Herbert, Tannehill, Stafford, Hurts, Burrow.I’m OK with the 10-13th QB off the board when it means having an elite TE and 4 each of serviceable WRs+RBs.

Plus QBs always emerge. One of Baker, Tua, Ryan, Fitz or a running QB in the 2nd half will end up being undrafted and a top 8 QB who gets plucked off the wire. It’s an easy position to stream or replace after the season starts (relative to other positions.)

 
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BobbyLayne said:
I always wait and it’s never hurt my team to keep adding value at RB/WR while other teams are adding QB6 or TE9. Especially this year when the bottom half of QB1 is Rodgers, Brady, Herbert, Tannehill, Stafford, Hurts, Burrow.I’m OK with the 10-13th QB off the board when it means have an elite TE and 4 each of serviceable WRs+RBs.

Plus QBs always emerge. One of Baker, Tua, Ryan, Fitz or a running QB in the 2nd half will end of being undrafted and a top 8 QB who gets plucked off the wire. It’s an easy position to stream or replace after the season starts (relative term other positions.)
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I went back and looked at a team I had that ran roughshod over my league one year. I did not draft a QB until way late and at no point did I roster a QB that ended up in the Top 20 that year. It was back 10 years ago and I basically streamed flotsam and jetsam off the waiver wire. Guys like Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, Vince Young, Matt Moore, and Kyle Orton based on sweet match ups. I went 14-2 and had a stable of backs and receivers that were insane. I ended up with 3 Top 10 backs and 5 Top 10 receivers. I averaged 25-30 PPG more than most teams.

 
Yes, it is deep, you just have to know how to draft. Look at last year, outside of Nuk and Adams, most of the WR1s were a surprise (i.e. Diggs, AJ Brown, Metcalf). We have to catch players while they are ascending, catch those WR 2/3s who will be 1s this year. Catch the flexes who will be WR 2s.

 
eric rymer said:
Mike Williams is still one that I am targeting fairly often. Although he seems to be rising making it a little tougher to get at a value. If he can find a way to stay healthy.......
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Ah yes, the classic post post post post hype sleeper. 

Seems like a lot of folks are done looking at him as an upside guy and drafting him for what he is rather than what he might be. 

I’m still not sure where I fall on this one. I like him at his ADP, but I don’t really expect a breakout year. 

 
Bald Bull said:
Yes, it is deep, you just have to know how to draft. Look at last year, outside of Nuk and Adams, most of the WR1s were a surprise (i.e. Diggs, AJ Brown, Metcalf). We have to catch players while they are ascending, catch those WR 2/3s who will be 1s this year. Catch the flexes who will be WR 2s.
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As a general sentiment I doubt anyone disagrees with any of this. 

But it’s so broad as to be interpreted as “be good at fantasy football. Be good at predicting breakouts.” 

I have played this game for decades. “Knowing how to draft” isn’t as hard as knowing who to draft. specifically after the first 5 rounds at a supposedly deep position. 

And if that were easy, we wouldn’t be having this discussion. ;)  

By all means, please do post your top 20 WR available after round 5 by current ADP. I’d love for someone to show us how it’s done. 👍🏼

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
As a general sentiment I doubt anyone disagrees with any of this. 

But it’s so broad as to be interpreted as “be good at fantasy football. Be good at predicting breakouts.” 

I have played this game for decades. “Knowing how to draft” isn’t as hard as knowing who to draft. specifically after the first 5 rounds at a supposedly deep position. 

And if that were easy, we wouldn’t be having this discussion. ;)  

By all means, please do post your top 20 WR available after round 5 by current ADP. I’d love for someone to show us how it’s done. 👍🏼
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If I gave the vibe that I know what I'm doing, then that's disgusting! 🤣. After 20 years of this game, I have learned that the 90% luck and 10% skill is a lie!!!! It's 99.99%. But I'll take the bait and give my list when I get back to my PC.

 
Just cause I like you guys I'll give you a sneak peek into my super gold star power level 9000 subscription tier WR -

Jakobi Meyers.  Draft him in the third to last round (because the 2nd to last is defense and the last is kicker) and set your flex spot for every bye week all season long.

 
wgoldsph said:
Just cause I like you guys I'll give you a sneak peek into my super gold star power level 9000 subscription tier WR -

Jakobi Meyers.  Draft him in the third to last round (because the 2nd to last is defense and the last is kicker) and set your flex spot for every bye week all season long.
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Money back guarantee I suppose? 

 
Anarchy99 said:
I went back and looked at a team I had that ran roughshod over my league one year. I did not draft a QB until way late and at no point did I roster a QB that ended up in the Top 20 that year. It was back 10 years ago and I basically streamed flotsam and jetsam off the waiver wire. Guys like Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, Vince Young, Matt Moore, and Kyle Orton based on sweet match ups. I went 14-2 and had a stable of backs and receivers that were insane. I ended up with 3 Top 10 backs and 5 Top 10 receivers. I averaged 25-30 PPG more than most teams.
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My last two championships were with WW QBs. Heck the highest scoring team I ever had (3 straight over 200, & our league record was like 189) was with Kyle Orton at QB. Who remembers the 5 TD MNF? And bc it’s the Bears, they benched him when Cutler got healthy. So I went into the playoffs with something like Alex Smith & Smokin’ Jay, and still won in a cakewalk.

TBC, I’ve never had another season like that, before or after. But it. Was. Glorious. 

 
wgoldsph said:
Just cause I like you guys I'll give you a sneak peek into my super gold star power level 9000 subscription tier WR -

Jakobi Meyers.  Draft him in the third to last round (because the 2nd to last is defense and the last is kicker) and set your flex spot for every bye week all season long.
Click to expand...


I’m hearing reports Agholor will be the WR1?

I knew I should have bought the 9000....

 
For me I see it as those WR's have the potential to be WR1's any given week and that is a lot more likely than RB's or TE's in that range doing that.  So even though most of those WR's finish as WR35+ in end of year rankings doesn't mean that you won't get WR2 or WR1 value for them any given week.  I would much rather throw darts at a handful of those post 30 WR's based on opportunity, skill, etc as from a week to week basis they will score above their weight class more often than other positions.  

 
I think a better way to phrase this would be instead of arguing that the position is shallower than most people assume, its better explained by saying that the drop off is less substantial in that tier, than from the tier before, compared to rb and te (elite ones anyway).

The top 5 finishers in one of my ppr leagues (hill adams diggs ridley hopkins) avg ppg 21.2

6-10 (jefferson, dk, lockett, arob, thielen) avg 16.88, so a pretty significant difference

11-15 (Ajb/evans/KA/woods/cooper) avg 16.3

16-20 (cooks/juju/marvin/ceedee/diontae) average 14.8 so another decent drop off

21-25 (robby/djm/kupp/TMC/claypool) avg 14.2

26-30  avg 13.5

 wr 31-40 avg 13.2

41-50 avg 11.4

51-60 avg 10.1

Rbs

1-3 avg 23.7

4-6 avg 17.7

7-9 avg 16.1

10-12 avg 14.8

13-15 avg 13.8

16-19 avg 13.0

20-22 14.1 this average is a little misleading. Carson and D johnson missing 4 games a piece inflated their ppg

TE (almost all of my leagues are 1.5 ppr for te, this is one of those)

kelce 24.4

waller 21

logan thomas 13.5

hockenson 13.1

tonyan 14.5

andrews 14.1

gesicki 12.4

fant 12.9

schultz 11.2

hurst 11.1

henry 12.5

engram 10.8

So the tier break in RBs is pretty drastic just in the top 22 you lose 10 ppg advantage by having a lower tier guy. In wr you have to get into the wr50+ range to lose 10 ppg to the elite tier. TE is just kind of a mess, if you dont have a top tier option, you kind of just have the same player whether its te 4 or 14.  10 ppg disadvantage is very drastic. Even 5 is a lot. Its much more difficult in a start 3 league to be at that big of a disadvantage there. in a start 2 it would be a bit easier i suppose.

Either way, I think the numbers show that it is fairly deep in terms of the actual pts being scored. Maybe the names are a little less sexy, and the situations are more ambiguous, but that is kinda how it goes when you are 1 of 3-5 pass catchers on an offense as opposed to 1 of 2 ball carriers, imo.

 
BobbyLayne said:
My last two championships were with WW QBs. Heck the highest scoring team I ever had (3 straight over 200, & our league record was like 189) was with Kyle Orton at QB. Who remembers the 5 TD MNF? And bc it’s the Bears, they benched him when Cutler got healthy. So I went into the playoffs with something like Alex Smith & Smokin’ Jay, and still won in a cakewalk.

TBC, I’ve never had another season like that, before or after. But it. Was. Glorious. 
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Looking back one of mine was with a WW QB as well. 

But the same schtick I used to pull 10 year ago don’t work any more. 

I used to consistently wait until round 8-9 for a QB & round 7-10 for a TE & I would always find those diamonds in the rough. 

Nowadays my league-mates aren’t buying magazines to draft from. They're all over the paid subscriptions & the RT Sports & Rotoworld front page links. 

They’re reading Waldman & Bloom, and planning their drafts specifically to negate my old schtick working.

In a league of sharks, or at least “no longer just fish”, waiting until the 6-7-8 to fill out WR2 & WR3 is much riskier.  I’m just sayin….things evolve. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Looking back one of mine was with a WW QB as well. 

But the same schtick I used to pull 10 year ago don’t work any more. 

I used to consistently wait until round 8-9 for a QB & round 7-10 for a TE & I would always find those diamonds in the rough. 

Nowadays my league-mates aren’t buying magazines to draft from. They're all over the paid subscriptions & the RT Sports & Rotoworld front page links. 

They’re reading Waldman & Bloom, and planning their drafts specifically to negate my old schtick working.

In a league of sharks, or at least “no longer just fish”, waiting until the 6-7-8 to fill out WR2 & WR3 is much riskier.  I’m just sayin….things evolve. 
Click to expand...
Interestingly enough, I regularly ran circles around Waldman and Bloom. The material they put out is great . . . but I smacked them around something fierce in actual leagues.

 
BobbyLayne said:
This is an important topic though. 

I think every great team I’ve had had a home run from rounds 7-10.
Click to expand...
I agree - I just don’t see too many home run hitters in rounds 7-10

I could see hitting on AB in the 6th. Maybe a Van Jefferson type with an injury to Kupp or Woods. Possibly guys like Aghlor in NE, or some sort of resurgence from Cobb or Watkins.

I do like Sutton & Boyd as post-injury upside types. Judy as well. 

But I also see a whoooooole lot of mediocrity as well. And it seems like a lot of the dudes I do like all have similar ADP, making it tough to get more than one of them.  

 
BobbyLayne said:
This is an important topic though. 

I think every great team I’ve had had a home run from rounds 7-10.
Click to expand...


It's the old saying ........you don't win a league with your first round pick you can only lose it with injury or big time underperformance.  You win the league in the later rounds with guys that perform like first/second rounders that cost a bunch less.  

Rounds 7-12 ( I will extend it a bit over your range) is where difference makers really help when they hit.  

 
Anarchy99 said:
Interestingly enough, I regularly ran circles around Waldman and Bloom. The material they put out is great . . . but I smacked them around something fierce in actual leagues.
Click to expand...
That’s hilarious, but I was speaking more about draft philosophy, how to approach positional drafting, strategy, etc.

I just picked 2 names at random, but many of those writers have put out articles with solid, high-level drafting tips. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
universal truism. 
Click to expand...
Maybe but if you spend a high pick on a QB or TE, they need to be truly elite that year. A RB or WR can disappoint but still provide value for your fantasy team just due to the supply and demand of the position. If you look at end of year VBD, you see that basically only Kelce and Waller made much of a difference on fantasy teams. They are the only TEs in the top 66 players in VBD. So even WRs who kind of disappointed like Cooper Kupp, DJ Moore or steady veterans like Marvin Jones outperformed the TE5 Mark Andrews last year. As for QB, it's the opposite where there are just so many QBs available that going early didn't make sense. There were 10 QBs in the top 50 in VBD. In 12 team leagues, that just means there isn't much need to compete over finding a starting QB. You need a Josh Allen or Darren Waller type out come or else you are just leaking value with the picks.  

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
Money back guarantee I suppose? 
Click to expand...
You bought it you broke it.

BobbyLayne said:
I’m hearing reports Agholor will be the WR1?

I knew I should have bought the 9000....
Click to expand...
The /over 9000/ tier is where the really really reeeeeaaaallly good stuff starts.   I do a live zoom every Sunday where it's just me in my boxers cursing at the TV for twelve straight hours.

Anarchy99 said:
Interestingly enough, I regularly ran circles around Waldman and Bloom. The material they put out is great . . . but I smacked them around something fierce in actual leagues.
Click to expand...
I give you crap in the NE posts because my irrational Meyers love, but in all honesty you really know your stuff. Glad I don't have to go up against you anywhere.

 
Ilov80s said:
Maybe but if you spend a high pick on a QB or TE, they need to be truly elite that year. A RB or WR can disappoint but still provide value for your fantasy team just due to the supply and demand of the position. If you look at end of year VBD, you see that basically only Kittle and Waller made much of a difference on fantasy teams. They are the only TEs in the top 66 players in VBD. So even WRs who kind of disappointed like Cooper Kupp, DJ Moore or steady veterans like Marvin Jones outperformed the TE5 Mark Andrews last year. As for QB, it's the opposite where there are just so many QBs available that going early didn't make sense. There were 10 QBs in the top 50 in VBD. In 12 team leagues, that just means there isn't much need to compete over finding a starting QB. You need a Josh Allen or Darren Waller type out come or else you are just leaking value with the picks.  
Click to expand...
Kittle or Kelce? 

I mean Kittle made a difference last year; just not in a good way. 

 
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