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Some random thoughts while I was away. (1 Viewer)

timschochet

timschochet

Footballguy
I thought I would put these all in one thread, I have a few musings about political events over the last month: 

1. During my time off, I managed to read the two newly released best-sellers about President Trump’s last year: Frankly We Won The Election and I Alone Can Fix It. Both are excellent reads and by Pulitzer winners, though I preferred the latter work by the Washington Post guys- they have a stronger narrative style. 

The two books have the same theory: Donald Trump would have won last year’s election if not for a series of self-imposed errors: essentially he screwed up with COVID, and he screwed up with his response to George Floyd’s death. As good as these books were, they did not convince me that this theory is true. I should add that I am not convinced it is NOT true. I just don’t know. 

The two books provide a nuanced picture of Trump: irrational at times, charming at other times, certainly transactional with no apparent inner sense of right and wrong, constantly reacting on instinct and feeling rather than thinking things through. In War and Peace, Tolstoy depicts Napoleon as a guy thrust into a major role in history by dumb luck, with no more control over events than anyone else. I have never believed this was true. But I think it might be partly true of Trump. Putting aside my fundamental disagreement with most of his politics, I do not believe he had the correct temperament to be our President. I’m glad he’s gone. 

 
Hey Tim, out of curiosity would you mind sharing with the group what you did with the extra hours in the day while gone? Color me intrigued.  :popcorn:
 

Good to see you back on what could have been a permaban offense. 

 
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Covid really hurt Trump’s chances of re-election based on how he responded.  I feel if he had a response closer to Bush’s with 9/11 he would maybe still be President right now.  But he just can’t help himself with the us vs. them stuff.  And despite all the other stuff that happened in his four years I will always remember him as the President who made a pandemic political.

 
2. A few months back I predicted here that upon us leaving Afghanistan, the Taliban would take over. But I had no idea it would happen so fast. I’m truly shocked by that. I was using, in my analysis, the Vietnam model, but our military left that country in 1973, and Saigon didn’t fall until 1975. 
I’m afraid there’s going to be slaughter in Kabul. We’ve seen this picture before and it’s not pretty. The Taliban will take their revenge on anyone who “collaborated” with America or with the previous government. I doubt they’ll bother to go through the pretense of “re-education camps”; firing squads are more their speed. 
Back in this country people will watch and some will criticize Biden (with some merit IMO). Many of our veterans who served there will feel betrayed (with much merit IMO). But the primary response will be indifference (again see 1975 as a reference.) It won’t have any effect in the upcoming elections or in 2024. 

 
AAABatteries said:
Covid really hurt Trump’s chances of re-election based on how he responded.  I feel if he had a response closer to Bush’s with 9/11 he would maybe still be President right now.  But he just can’t help himself with the us vs. them stuff.  And despite all the other stuff that happened in his four years I will always remember him as the President who made a pandemic political.
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All he had to do was go out in public and say "This is serious, we need to take it seriously, we need to follow our scientists' advice, and we need to be safe."  Instead, he obsessed about COVID's effects on the economy, how the economic damage would hurt his chances at reelection, and tried to wish it away.  When that didn't work, he tried to pretend it didn't exist.  When that didn't work, he lost.  He would have won had he just admitted it was serious and dangerous and let science and doctors do their thing.

 
timschochet said:
2. A few months back I predicted here that upon us leaving Afghanistan, the Taliban would take over. But I had no idea it would happen so fast. I’m truly shocked by that. I was using, in my analysis, the Vietnam model, but our military left that country in 1973, and Saigon didn’t fall until 1975. 
I’m afraid there’s going to be slaughter in Kabul. We’ve seen this picture before and it’s not pretty. The Taliban will take their revenge on anyone who “collaborated” with America or with the previous government. I doubt they’ll bother to go through the pretense of “re-education camps”; firing squads are more their speed. 
Back in this country people will watch and some will criticize Biden (with some merit IMO). Many of our veterans who served there will feel betrayed (with much merit IMO). But the primary response will be indifference (again see 1975 as a reference.) It won’t have any effect in the upcoming elections or in 2024. 
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Some of it is indifference.  Some of it is also acceptance, in the sense that no one has any better ideas.  The status quo wasn't working either.

 
3. I don’t agree with the voting restrictions  that Georgia, Texas, and many other states  are trying to impose, but upon examining them they don’t seem especially devastating to democracy either. So far as I can see they mostly attempt to reverse some of the rules that were set up in 2020 in response to the Pandemic. The response that this is a return to “Jim Crow” era restrictions seems way over the top to me- perhaps there are facts I am missing here? 

 
timschochet said:
3. I don’t agree with the voting restrictions  that Georgia, Texas, and many other states  are trying to impose, but upon examining them they don’t seem especially devastating to democracy either. So far as I can see they mostly attempt to reverse some of the rules that were set up in 2020 in response to the Pandemic. The response that this is a return to “Jim Crow” era restrictions seems way over the top to me- perhaps there are facts I am missing here? 
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Water. 

No, I think there are certification and other procedural issues that are very dangerous to the actual tabulation and certification of votes. Maurile was on top of this in Georgia. Otherwise it seemed like much ado about nothing. 

But you know the saying. "Once you pop, you can't stop." 

 
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4. There are good reasons to believe that the Republicans are going to take back both House and Senate next year. There are good reasons to believe that the Democrats will hold on and increase their lead in both. I have no predictions to make; it’s too early.  But I will say this: next summer the Supreme Court is going to rule on abortion. They MAY reverse Roe vs Wade- that was the explicit reason that Trump put Kavanaugh and Coney Barrett on the court. Again I have no idea if they will actually reverse it, but if they do I believe that will overwhelm all other issues and lead to what could easily be a Democratic wave. 

 
timschochet said:
4. There are good reasons to believe that the Republicans are going to take back both House and Senate next year. There are good reasons to believe that the Democrats will hold on and increase their lead in both. I have no predictions to make; it’s too early.  But I will say this: next summer the Supreme Court is going to rule on abortion. They MAY reverse Roe vs Wade- that was the explicit reason that Trump put Kavanaugh and Coney Barrett on the court. Again I have no idea if they will actually reverse it, but if they do I believe that will overwhelm all other issues and lead to what could easily be a Democratic wave. 
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Outside of the potential reversal on abortion, I don't see any way democrats hang onto the House.  Redistricting/gerrymandering alone would flip it easily.

 
5. The key to the vaccination and masks issues is, very simply, hospital beds. Forget actual number of deaths, actual numbers of serious illness. Focus on hospital beds and ICUs. When those fill up the government is going to act. The more they fill up the more stringent the response is going to be. 

 
Rich Conway said:
Outside of the potential reversal on abortion, I don't see any way democrats hang onto the House.  Redistricting/gerrymandering alone would flip it easily.
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I don't see any wave coming because of a reversal on abortion. If anything, it will energize the Republican base. 

 
Rich Conway said:
All he had to do was go out in public and say "This is serious, we need to take it seriously, we need to follow our scientists' advice, and we need to be safe."  Instead, he obsessed about COVID's effects on the economy, how the economic damage would hurt his chances at reelection, and tried to wish it away.  When that didn't work, he tried to pretend it didn't exist.  When that didn't work, he lost.  He would have won had he just admitted it was serious and dangerous and let science and doctors do their thing.
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100000000000000% this

 
Rich Conway said:
Outside of the potential reversal on abortion, I don't see any way democrats hang onto the House.  Redistricting/gerrymandering alone would flip it easily.
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I’m not at all sure this is true. I think a lot of conservatives are leaving the Republican Party over what happened on January 6. If, as is being reported, Trump spends next year on a rampage attempting to primary any Republicans that he doesn’t find sufficiently loyal, then the Democrats could turn 2022 into yet another referendum- does America really want a return of the Trumpers? 

 
Rich Conway said:
All he had to do was go out in public and say "This is serious, we need to take it seriously, we need to follow our scientists' advice, and we need to be safe."  Instead, he obsessed about COVID's effects on the economy, how the economic damage would hurt his chances at reelection, and tried to wish it away.  When that didn't work, he tried to pretend it didn't exist.  When that didn't work, he lost.  He would have won had he just admitted it was serious and dangerous and let science and doctors do their thing.
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Maybe. But again, maybe he would have lost no matter what he did because the public, responding to the crisis, would have demanded a change in leadership no matter what. 
Again, I am not convinced either way. 

 
I have more thoughts but I will save them for another day. I’m at the Venetian (my favorite hotel here despite my disagreements with the late owner Mr. Adelson) and trying to relax. It’s over 100 degrees but my family rented a cabana (quite pricey but what the hell it’s a vacation!)

 
timschochet said:
On this issue the Democrats and independents overwhelm the Republican base. Suburban women are the key. 
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Quite possibly. Polling has moved in the direction of people being in favor of legal abortion among educated voters, who are more likely to turn out. You're probably actually right. Any base energies will be offset by the more likely voters voting their interest.

 
timschochet said:
I thought I would put these all in one thread, I have a few musings about political events over the last month: 

1. During my time off, I managed to read the two newly released best-sellers about President Trump’s last year: Frankly We Won The Election and I Alone Can Fix It. Both are excellent reads and by Pulitzer winners, though I preferred the latter work by the Washington Post guys- they have a stronger narrative style. 

The two books have the same theory: Donald Trump would have won last year’s election if not for a series of self-imposed errors: essentially he screwed up with COVID, and he screwed up with his response to George Floyd’s death. As good as these books were, they did not convince me that this theory is true. I should add that I am not convinced it is NOT true. I just don’t know. 

The two books provide a nuanced picture of Trump: irrational at times, charming at other times, certainly transactional with no apparent inner sense of right and wrong, constantly reacting on instinct and feeling rather than thinking things through. In War and Peace, Tolstoy depicts Napoleon as a guy thrust into a major role in history by dumb luck, with no more control over events than anyone else. I have never believed this was true. But I think it might be partly true of Trump. Putting aside my fundamental disagreement with most of his politics, I do not believe he had the correct temperament to be our President. I’m glad he’s gone. 
Click to expand...
Honestly I haven't thought much on the Floyd angle, but I think 100% he would still be in charge if his covid reaction was different.  All he had to do was present a mildly unifying message, but I don't think that is in his DNA.  

 
timschochet said:
5. The key to the vaccination and masks issues is, very simply, hospital beds. Forget actual number of deaths, actual numbers of serious illness. Focus on hospital beds and ICUs. When those fill up the government is going to act. The more they fill up the more stringent the response is going to be. 
Click to expand...
Here’s my problem with this and IMO the #1 issue I have with Biden on his response.  We were caught with our pants down once.  I do not give a #### that there may be a shortage of workers - it’s totally unacceptable if we have people being turned away or our ICUs are full with no plan in place.  Yes, it’s a result of idiots not getting the vaccine but it’s a dereliction of duties to not have prepared for this.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
Honestly I haven't thought much on the Floyd angle, but I think 100% he would still be in charge if his covid reaction was different.  All he had to do was present a mildly unifying message, but I don't think that is in his DNA.  
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His first instinct was to think "crap, this might make me look bad."

 
rockaction said:
Quite possibly. Polling has moved in the direction of people being in favor of legal abortion among educated voters, who are more likely to turn out. You're probably actually right. Any base energies will be offset by the more likely voters voting their interest.
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Yeah - I’m bad at predictions but abortion being overturned seems like a really bad idea for the GOP (as far as elections go).

 
tonydead said:
"Most people with that many warnings would have been permabanned already."

Tells you everything you ever needed to know about the biased moderation around here. 
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I have more warnings than tim. We post a heck of a lot more than most people, and thus get warnings commensurate with our posting proclivities. I wrote a long post and almost started a new thread about it, but deferred to my better judgment. 

 
tonydead said:
"Most people with that many warnings would have been permabanned already."

Tells you everything you ever needed to know about the biased moderation around here. 
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Nah - this is more like Moe not banning Barney from the Tavern.  Good will and driving business matters.  Other counterpoint is you are still around.

But Joe said drop it so I’ll let you have the last word/emoji.

 
timschochet said:
3. I don’t agree with the voting restrictions  that Georgia, Texas, and many other states  are trying to impose, but upon examining them they don’t seem especially devastating to democracy either. So far as I can see they mostly attempt to reverse some of the rules that were set up in 2020 in response to the Pandemic. The response that this is a return to “Jim Crow” era restrictions seems way over the top to me- perhaps there are facts I am missing here? 
Click to expand...
 The real danger is the power the Georgia legislature has given itself to invalidate vote counts in urban areas. They don't want any more Raffenspergers standing in the way with pesky facts.

 
tonydead said:
"Most people with that many warnings would have been permabanned already."

Tells you everything you ever needed to know about the biased moderation around here. 
Click to expand...
In fairness, his post volume is needed to keep this place afloat. 

 
timschochet said:
4. There are good reasons to believe that the Republicans are going to take back both House and Senate next year. There are good reasons to believe that the Democrats will hold on and increase their lead in both. I have no predictions to make; it’s too early.  But I will say this: next summer the Supreme Court is going to rule on abortion. They MAY reverse Roe vs Wade- that was the explicit reason that Trump put Kavanaugh and Coney Barrett on the court. Again I have no idea if they will actually reverse it, but if they do I believe that will overwhelm all other issues and lead to what could easily be a Democratic wave. 
Click to expand...
Dems will increase their lead in the Senate and render Manchin and Sinema moot; you can't gerrymander a statewide election.

Republicans will gain a majority in the House with a minority of the nationwide popular vote. Dem voters are so clustered that they concede about a four-point edge even if no gerrymandering takes place.

 
AAABatteries said:
Yeah - I’m bad at predictions but abortion being overturned seems like a really bad idea for the GOP (as far as elections go).
Click to expand...
The GOP is actually in a tough spot here, politically.  For decades, this issue has been a rallying cry for donations, votes, excitement, etc., but they didn't have the power to actually follow through.  That is, abortion was more useful as a rallying cry than actual policy.  Now they do have the power to follow through, so they either have to do so or risk losing that rallying cry for a certain segment of the population.  "Donate to us and vote for us so we can overturn Roe" won't work going forward, as it would be met with "You won't do it anyway" or "You already did it", depending on what happens.

 
kodycutter said:
If Gavin loses his recall to a R, does Feinstein step aside before he is replaced?
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No idea. The odds are still very much against Newsom getting recalled, although they’re a bit tighter than they were mostly due to voter indifference and complacency on the Democratic side. But I expect him to win comfortably. 
I used to really enjoy Larry Elder’s talk show but not since the Trump era began. I also have to add to this my strong beliefs and concerns that: 

1. The conservatives leading this recall movement, like so many conservatives around the country, seem to be caught up in this whole anti-vaxxer, anti-mask thing. 
 

2. The anti-vaxxer, anti-mask thing is, to me, highly irrational and bewildering. 

 
timschochet said:
1. The conservatives leading this recall movement, like so many conservatives around the country, seem to be caught up in this whole anti-vaxxer, anti-mask thing.
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Gekko asked me to go over why it would be a disaster for a Republican to be elected as Governor. This is Exhibit A and the truth.

It would be a disaster right now if Newsom were recalled. He'd have to replaced, and the names on the ballot are worthy of a punch line. All of them.

 
timschochet said:
1. The conservatives leading this recall movement, like so many conservatives around the country, seem to be caught up in this whole anti-vaxxer, anti-mask thing. 
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Elder has been vaccinated and has stated multiple times he is pro vaccination.  Definitely not anti-vaxxer.

I would say that if this was posted on Facebook this would be censored as untrue, be we all know they only censor conservatives.

 
timschochet said:
I have more thoughts but I will save them for another day. I’m at the Venetian (my favorite hotel here despite my disagreements with the late owner Mr. Adelson) and trying to relax. It’s over 100 degrees but my family rented a cabana (quite pricey but what the hell it’s a vacation!)
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Bet $1,000 on UCLA to win the PAC 12

 
timschochet said:
I have more thoughts but I will save them for another day. I’m at the Venetian (my favorite hotel here despite my disagreements with the late owner Mr. Adelson) and trying to relax. It’s over 100 degrees but my family rented a cabana (quite pricey but what the hell it’s a vacation!)
Click to expand...
The Venetian in Las Vegas?  How are things there?  Have the shows & restaurants opened back up?  

 
johnnycakes said:
The Venetian in Las Vegas?  How are things there?  Have the shows & restaurants opened back up?  
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Some. We saw 27 last night at the Virgin (formerly Hard Rock) and it was awesome. It’s a rock show featuring 6 who died at age 27: Robert Johnson, Janis Joplin, Jimi Hendrix, Jim Morrison, Kurt Cobain, and Amy Winehouse. Great performers, great show. 
Restaurants and stores are open and it’s plenty crowded. Masks are required in all indoor areas. Plenty hot. 

 
Sand said:
Elder has been vaccinated and has stated multiple times he is pro vaccination.  Definitely not anti-vaxxer.

I would say that if this was posted on Facebook this would be censored as untrue, be we all know they only censor conservatives.
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He had promised to lift all vaccination and mask restrictions in his first half hour as Governor. Therefore I feel pretty safe putting him in the “anti-vaxxer” crowd no matter what he does personally- I’m betting DeSantis has been vaccinated too. 

 
tonydead said:
Should be obvious, but, being against mandates and forcing people to do things is way different that being anti-vaccine. 
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it should also be obvious that we already do these very things for travel, school, military.  

I don't hear boo about "my rights" over any of that stuff. I have never seen a post in here from you guys about how wrong it is to require vaccinations for those things.  I am sure there is a tiny bit of crossover for people who don't participate in those things, but IMO this is about 95% political.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
it should also be obvious that we already do these very things for travel, school, military.  

I don't hear boo about "my rights" over any of that stuff. I have never seen a post in here from you guys about how wrong it is to require vaccinations for those things.  I am sure there is a tiny bit of crossover for people who don't participate in those things, but IMO this is about 95% political.  
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We do those things on rushed to the market untested vaccines where the government removes all liability from the company making them?  Interesting

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
We do those things on rushed to the market untested vaccines where the government removes all liability from the company making them?  Interesting
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I have 0 doubt people who are like my above description  would be lining up under the same scenario if Father Trump was in the White House.   

 
tonydead said:
Should be obvious, but, being against mandates and forcing people to do things is way different that being anti-vaccine. 
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What I wrote is that, for political purposes, I feel comfortable putting these folks in the same crowd, which, I unfortunately find to be highly irrational. Simply put, they’re interfering with my safety by filling up hospital beds and ICU units. 
 

So while I recognize the distinction you’re making, it’s unimportant to me. At this point if you’re not in favor of society (not necessarily government) mandating COVID vaccinations and mandating masks in schools and inside public places until such time as the vast majority have been vaccinated, then you’re part of the problem IMO and on the wrong side of this public health crisis. 

 
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KarmaPolice said:
I have 0 doubt people who are like my above description  would be lining up under the same scenario if Father Trump was in the White House.   
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I do. 
One of my strongest impressions of the two books I mentioned in the OP is this: when it comes to issues, Trump is NOT a leader. He has very little power to affect the opinion of his followers. 
He is an extremely effective influence when it comes to transient issues: for instance, convincing them that the 2020 election was stolen, or which candidate to support in the upcoming election. But if Trump ever tried to sell his crowd that illegal immigration was good, or that abortion should be legal, or a host of other issues contrary to what his supporters firmly believe- they would just ignore him. 
 

For a variety of reasons, many conservatives have come to distrust the new vaccines and will not take them. Donald Trump has no power to change this. 

 
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