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Week 1 2021 NFL Fanduel


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Wow, had no idea all these loser bot idiot morons were starting topics here, lol. Had to scroll past like 10 fake topics to realize nobody had started a new 2021 DFS thread. Well here it is!!! Thoughts on this season and how you plan on "investing" your Fanduel $$$. Personally. I'm going in with a $2k billfold, 10% play per week and all on Sunday Millions. What are all y'all thinking?

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I will be back this year with insights, if you want to call them that.  I am also planning to setup weekly leagues that I will post here, for those interested in a small field tournament.  I glanced at week one and love Green Bay.  I also think my Bengals will put up points most week and that includes week one.  I expect them to be a low owned team for stacking.  The only other thing I looked at was eliminating the low total games/teams to see what that left.  I will check back around 9/5.

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I know I am burning $, but I put in placeholders for a handful of the milly maker contests on each site before they have to go back up to $20.   Only have to beat 1.3 million entries!!! 

Will also do a little more cash/5x type of contests this year too, and probably join in the weekly contests if they are $5 or less.   

People still mostly do FD around here??

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I am FandDuel only, so all my research and comments are always FanDuel related.  The small invite leagues will be planned for around $5 and pay the top three.  I will post the link here and in my season long fantasy league for those 11-people.  The goal would be to get 20 people each week, but I will adjust it based on how much interest it gets.

I look for head to head, 3-man, and 5-man contests as cash plays to help balance my tournament plays.  I have found that tournament min cash line is not much different than the multipliers and 50/50s, so I usually avoid them.  I will go after the milly maker each week with about 5-10 lineups, depending on the week.

Please note I seem to break even at NFL, but enjoy it the most.  I do better with NBA and I am having my best baseball season, this year.

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Also only FD. 66 entries into the Sunday milly. I like stacks with Kyler Murray, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz/Eason, Mahomes, and Josh Allen. RBs I like are Mixon, Ekeler, Kamara, Chubb, Cook, Barkley, Henry, and CMC. High WR exposure on Lockett, McLaurin, Higgins, Robby Anderson, Chase Claypool, and Deebo Samuel.

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On 9/4/2021 at 11:45 AM, Solomon Grundy said:

Also only FD. 66 entries into the Sunday milly. I like stacks with Kyler Murray, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz/Eason, Mahomes, and Josh Allen. RBs I like are Mixon, Ekeler, Kamara, Chubb, Cook, Barkley, Henry, and CMC. High WR exposure on Lockett, McLaurin, Higgins, Robby Anderson, Chase Claypool, and Deebo Samuel.

:shock:

 

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Also, just the yearly reminder that if you are not stacking and correlating in gpps, you are going about it wrong.   IMO one of the better sites and pods for dfs is 4for4.  They had a great gpp strategy pod a couple weeks ago, yet again hammered home that all of the winning  and top LUs have around 5 players correlating in the lineup.   Also, you only need 1 or 2 sub 5% owned guys in your lineup - don't be afraid of the chalk, especially at RB on FD.   

Again - 5 correlating players doesn't mean all 5 from the same game.    It can be all sorts of correlations.  QB/WR + WR from the same game, then WR/TE from another game - stuff like that.   

IMO one of their better tips for the first few weeks of gpps was to make sure you are looking at the 2nd tier of games/teams as far as Vegas Totals go.   Their point was that Vegas is still good, but early on it might take a couple weeks and statistically it's the teams with the team totals in the 24-26 pt range that surprise.    Not that you ignore the other teams, but everybody will be looking at the first tier of KC, Buff, Tenn, GB, SF   so maybe eye up something from Minn, Seattle, Atl, Jax, Az, NE for gpps stacks? 

 

Edited by KarmaPolice
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18 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Also, I know we've been over this before, but why do most of you guys do FD only?   

 

For me.  I have been using FD since I got into DFS.  I don’t have the money or time to play both sites.  I am comfortable and familiar with FD, so I just stick with it.  I play for entertainment and have no interest in taking the time to the learn the little details to make me better at DK. 

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18 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Also, just the yearly reminder that if you are not stacking and correlating in gpps, you are going about it wrong.   IMO one of the better sites and pods for dfs is 4for4.  They had a great gpp strategy pod a couple weeks ago, yet again hammered home that all of the winning  and top LUs have around 5 players correlating in the lineup.   Also, you only need 1 or 2 sub 5% owned guys in your lineup - don't be afraid of the chalk, especially at RB on FD.   

Again - 5 correlating players doesn't mean all 5 from the same game.    It can be all sorts of correlations.  QB/WR + WR from the same game, then WR/TE from another game - stuff like that.   

IMO one of their better tips for the first few weeks of gpps was to make sure you are looking at the 2nd tier of games/teams as far as Vegas Totals go.   Their point was that Vegas is still good, but early on it might take a couple weeks and statistically it's the teams with the team totals in the 24-26 pt range that surprise.    Not that you ignore the other teams, but everybody will be looking at the first tier of KC, Buff, Tenn, GB, SF   so maybe eye up something from Minn, Seattle, Atl, Jax, Az, NE for gpps stacks? 

 

Great post!  

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I know there was also talk back and forth about using TE at the flex on FD for gpps.   I think it's a waste of a LU, but they did bring up that 2-3 have won the milly makers in the last few years with a TE flex.  HOWEVER, they brought up a great point that each time it was specifically constructed and correlated to offset a chalk stack.   IE - Mahommes + Kelce were chalk, and they used that but offset that chalk by running it back with the TE from the opposing team.     These weren't LUs that just randomly threw in 2 TEs.  

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On 9/5/2021 at 6:41 PM, KarmaPolice said:

Also, I know we've been over this before, but why do most of you guys do FD only?   

 

I prefer FD for gambling and DK for DFS.  I'm hoping to dedicate more time to this.  I usually play the single entries or 50'50's.  

Edited by FairWarning
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On 9/5/2021 at 6:56 PM, KarmaPolice said:

Also, just the yearly reminder that if you are not stacking and correlating in gpps, you are going about it wrong.   IMO one of the better sites and pods for dfs is 4for4.  They had a great gpp strategy pod a couple weeks ago, yet again hammered home that all of the winning  and top LUs have around 5 players correlating in the lineup.   Also, you only need 1 or 2 sub 5% owned guys in your lineup - don't be afraid of the chalk, especially at RB on FD.   

Again - 5 correlating players doesn't mean all 5 from the same game.    It can be all sorts of correlations.  QB/WR + WR from the same game, then WR/TE from another game - stuff like that.   

IMO one of their better tips for the first few weeks of gpps was to make sure you are looking at the 2nd tier of games/teams as far as Vegas Totals go.   Their point was that Vegas is still good, but early on it might take a couple weeks and statistically it's the teams with the team totals in the 24-26 pt range that surprise.    Not that you ignore the other teams, but everybody will be looking at the first tier of KC, Buff, Tenn, GB, SF   so maybe eye up something from Minn, Seattle, Atl, Jax, Az, NE for gpps stacks? 

 

RB/D is a correlation also.  

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35 minutes ago, FairWarning said:

RB/D is a correlation also.  

I was going to post more about that tonight and post some of their findings on correlation.   If I remember right, it does have a positive correlation, but I think that it's overblown and people use it a little too much.   I think a better way to go is a game stack like QB-WR + opposing WR and then add in another stack like WR-opposing WR (more on DK where WR is better flex in gpps),  WR-opp TE, or even RB/WR on same team.  

I need to try to find the position correlation article - I think I posted one last year too.  

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@FairWarning - can you see THIS article without a subscription?    They have one for FD too, and it talks about player correlations and stacking.   It's a few years old, and I was going to reread that one and post what they found in the last 3 years (if anything was even different).  

 

Edited by KarmaPolice
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Anyway, I was poking around with their correlation tool.   League-wide stats, and I did it for 2018-2020 seasons.   Pretty much the same as the article I just posted:

In order of best correlation:

1.  QB - WR (.64)

2.  QB - TE (.46) 

3.  QB  -  opposing WR (.24) 

(hence the focus on game stacks, as the QB, his targets, and the opposing QB and his main target are the highest correlated for stacks) 

4.   WR - opposing WR (.19) 

5.   WR - op TE or TE - op WR (.14)

6.   QB - op TE (.12) 

7.   RB - DT  (.1)

8.   QB -RB  (.08)

9.   RB - op WR (.04) 

10.   RB - TE  (0.0) 

 

Everything else was negatively correlated.    So, RB-DT is not a bad idea or anything.  However for DTs, the more important thing to focus on is D pressure, bad OL for the opposing team, amount opposing team passes, etc..  the big points are for the big plays, and those come from pressure and sacks.   So, if you make your list and using those metrics your DT pool happens to be from the same team one of your core RBs is, cool.   But I don't think you should force that stack, and you are better off having a higher % of your LUs with correlations from another game that could have some passing.  

So on FD, it would be statistically better if you only have 1 lineup to do something like :

Mahomes + Kelce + OBJ   w/ AJ Brown + Hopkins    vs.   Mahomes + Hill + OBJ   w/   Cook + Minn.  

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All that above said, even more to chew on is team by team correlations as they look really weird.   Trouble is, you get into such small sample size, and there has been a lot of player shifting this year.    
 

Some of the higher correlated specific players I saw were:

Burrow - Boyd  (.8) 

Brady - Godwin (.76)

Wilson - Lockett (.62)

Rodgers - Adams (.62)

Cousins - Jefferson (.6)

D.Jones - Shepard (.7) 

Those made sense and were probably what most expected, but then there were weird ones like:

Ridley + Gage (.59) 

J.Taylor + Hilton (.77) 

R.Jones + Gronk (.54) 

Zeke + Lamb (.55)  

 

 

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So I used the QB + WR1 + opp WR1 almost every lineup last year and never hit big, so I'm going exclusively with the QB + WR1 as my stacks, and then piling on players I like. I will pick 8 or so RBs and use them exclusively (always high usage guys (20+ touches / game)) and then let the builders do the rest.

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1 hour ago, Solomon Grundy said:

So I used the QB + WR1 + opp WR1 almost every lineup last year and never hit big, so I'm going exclusively with the QB + WR1 as my stacks, and then piling on players I like. I will pick 8 or so RBs and use them exclusively (always high usage guys (20+ touches / game)) and then let the builders do the rest.

Still statistically the way to go though.  if I remember right, there wasn't a big winner that didn't correlate at least 4 players in the last couple years.  

Granted, we are talking big gpps.  if you are doing 10-100 entry contests, you probably don't have to as much.  

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3 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Still statistically the way to go though.  if I remember right, there wasn't a big winner that didn't correlate at least 4 players in the last couple years.  

Granted, we are talking big gpps.  if you are doing 10-100 entry contests, you probably don't have to as much.  

I wonder if the stats are skewed by all the pros who enter 150 lineups and basically have every top stack combo covered? 

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Seems like I am leaning towards my usual on FD - rushing QB, 3 RBs, correlations.  

QB:  It's hard to get too far away from the core of Murray/Allen/Mahomes.    For gpp, I really love the idea of leveraging off the RBs of the high total teams and going with the passing attacks.   So in lineups I don't have Cook, maybe looking at Cousins, same with Tannehill in non-Henry Lus.    I also have been looking a bit at the Philly/Atl and Min/Cin game, so Hurts and Burrow are in my gpp thoughts.  

RB:   I might just rock a core of 4 maybe 5 RBs and just be way overweight.   Cook, Mixon, Henry, CMC, Kamara, J.Robinson at the top.   I will probably be underweight on CMC this week and focus on the others.   gpp sprinkles I wrote down Chubb, Gaskin, D.Harris (Cam had 70%+ touches from the 5yd line in last year, and he is gone), and Mostert.  

WR/TE = mostly just correlating with stacks and games.    Like just about everybody, I like taking shots on the rookies/2 year guys that might be low owned, but will look at ownership more later in the week.   Guys like R.Moore, Shenault, E.Moore, T.Marshall, Waddle  are dirt cheap and pivots off what I assume will be a way more popular option in Callaway.  

DT.  hard to get too much of a peg on this, but again will look at ownership.  Some that I wrote down for gpps to look into based on OL and pressure rates last year were:  Jax (pair with Robinson too), ATL, Indy, both sides of the NE/Mia, both sides of Denv/NYG.  

 

My placeholder for the Milly right now is:

Murray - Kamara/Cook/J.Robinson - AJBrown/R.Moore/Higgins - Ebron - NO   

 

 

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Looking forward to this thread, and thank you to everyone that contributes. Usually a lurker, but will try to participate more this year. Been playing for several years. 

Single Entry Player myself  ( I will throw a few in the Milly Maker)

3-100 Player Tournaments are my favs. 

Play on FD and DK only. May try just FD like you all this year. I do think trying to focus on both can be messing me up. 

Thanks again!

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1 hour ago, podunker said:

Looking forward to this thread, and thank you to everyone that contributes. Usually a lurker, but will try to participate more this year. Been playing for several years. 

Single Entry Player myself  ( I will throw a few in the Milly Maker)

3-100 Player Tournaments are my favs. 

Play on FD and DK only. May try just FD like you all this year. I do think trying to focus on both can be messing me up. 

Thanks again!

I do 90% DK.  

I think it's more fun because there are more options for builds, and I seem to find more contests I like there.  

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Dipping my toes back into DFS after a few years off.  My schedule just wasn't allowing me to focus like I had in the past.

I'm 100% DK.  I haven't played since they started with all the funky game modes.  I'm a classic, straight up 9 player roster player.  I'm occupied enough playing that format.  Have no desire to mess with all the other crap.

Looking forward to getting/sharing lots of info here this year.  Good luck to all!

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I think in the past they had two separate threads, but if I remember correctly one of them hardly ever had any action on it. I'm fine with keeping it all in one thread but just putting in the post if you are talking about DK or FD in particular. A lot of the stuff will carry over to both I would say. But, I am up for whatever really. 

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17 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Just saw my LU I made while high and taking a crap - the double whammy of conjuring great ideas. 

M.Jones - CMC/Cook/Kamara - Agholor/Waddle/Callaway - Pitts - Buff. 

 I love this LU! I am big on Mac Jones and Callaway. They both just pass the eye test for me. Plus, nobody will be on them week 1.  Get a decent TE to go with the stud RB's and it should do well. 

Edited by podunker
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9 minutes ago, podunker said:

 I love this LU! I am big on Mac Jones and Callaway. They both just pass the eye test for me. Plus, nobody will be on them week 1.  Get a decent TE to go with the stud RB's and it should do well. 

I will probably keep it, but maybe tweak it a tad to get another correlation in there.  I was playing with one where instead of CMC I had D.Adams in the flex as a bring back correlation with Kamara.  

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Seems like these first few weeks you can get some shockers from the Rookies on either side of it. They could blow up or blow out! 

I like Mac Jones, N. Harris, D. Smith, Waddle, and J. Williams. 

Another guy I that will probably go off since he has been brutal in the pre season in Chase! He will be low owned!

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2 hours ago, FatNate said:

FanDuel weekly contest. $5. Top three get paid.  80% full runs the contest. 20-person league from the main slate. 
 

https://www.fanduel.com/entry/62415-248308493?invitedby=fatnate&cnl=mabo&utm_campaign=User Referral&utm_medium=iOS&utm_source=User 3-20&utm_content=Link

IN!   Thanks for putting it together. 

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Listening to early pods, I think by far the most popular builds are going to be High/Low salaries.     Since there is so much value with the WRs like Callaway and RBs like Robinson, a ton of LUs with be with those guys and then paying up for 2 RBs and D.Adams, or something like that.   

Because of that, I've been staring at builds where I go more middle of the road with everything.   Not sure how much I like it, but came up with this using the secondary games I like:

Wilson - Chubb/Mixon/D.Harris - Metcalf/Jefferson/Pittman - Pitts - NE

 

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Can someone verify that Jameis is trending at less than 5% ownership?  At $6700, seems like a great way to build a stack for that 50-pt GB/NO total.  Something like this:

Winston-Cook/Henry/Kamara-Higgins/Calloway/Cobb-Goedert-Jaguars

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8 hours ago, FatNate said:

Can someone verify that Jameis is trending at less than 5% ownership?  At $6700, seems like a great way to build a stack for that 50-pt GB/NO total.  Something like this:

Winston-Cook/Henry/Kamara-Higgins/Calloway/Cobb-Goedert-Jaguars

For the first set of ownership projections I've seen, this is the case.  

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Starting to narrow down my pool.   I have 25% K.Murray, 25% Hurts, and 25% Wilson.     If projected ownership is accurate, my favorite gpp QB right now is Hurts.  

The plan is to work in those 3 games and stacks in a lot with the other games I think will be more popular like GB/NO and KC/Clev.    So instead of stacking those with a QB, I am going to work in secondary stacks like Kamara - Adams, Kelce - OBJ, etc..  

This is on FD.    I haven't started on DK yet, but tend to get a tad weirder with QBs over there.  

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What I am looking at for my Core on FD.

QB- Jackson, Hurts, Rodgers

RB-Kamara, Cook,  CMC------Edwards, Mostert, Robinson, D. Harris

WR- K. Allen, D. Smith, Lamb, C. Davis, Ant. Brown, Shenault, Callaway

TE- Andrews, Pitts, Tonyan

D- Denver, NE, Rams

I will be stacking a QB with TE/WR. I will usually make 3 LU's, each with different QB/TE/Def. Then I mix in the stud RB's and my WR's. I almost always have RB in flex spot. 

I will play 1 LU on the Thur/Mon slate, and the other 2 on Sunday. 

Edited by podunker
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8 hours ago, podunker said:

I went with AB and Lamb as the only players on my Thur/Mon LU's. 

AB on DK, and Lamb on FD. 

Not great but not bad so far. 

AB should be a nice start.

I did a Thurs-mon game stack for $1 on FD.  sitting at 110pts with all 3 rbs left and DT.   Had Evans in there, which hurts, but decent scores everywhere else.  

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Karma -- If I remember right your Patriots guy, right?  What's your take on the TE position in New England for week one.

I am seeing low ownership on both Smith and Henry.

Weaker WR core, rookie QB, and an offense that has always favored the TE spot.

I like them both and expect them to get targets.

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19 minutes ago, FatNate said:

Karma -- If I remember right your Patriots guy, right?  What's your take on the TE position in New England for week one.

I am seeing low ownership on both Smith and Henry.

Weaker WR core, rookie QB, and an offense that has always favored the TE spot.

I like them both and expect them to get targets.

Can't be much help.  I handicap myself because I watch 0 football now and get behind on news like that.    Now I fall back on stats and trends for dfs.  

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