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Week 1 2021 NFL Fanduel


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Not sure why I bother looking at ownership %s much before Friday.    The lists look so much different now, and have players that I liked for gpps like Gibson as #2RB owned.    Back to the drawing board, I guess.  

Like I said before though, especially on DK it looks like there is basically going to be a very popular shell build - 2-3 studs 2-3 cheap WRs, Mahomes/Allen/Murray, Pitts, cheap D. - I will work on it tonight, but I think just making yourself do a different style will set you apart from a ton of LUs.   I am looking at middle of the road salaries across the board, or doing cheap RBs and 2-3 high priced WRs/Kelce.   :shrug: 

 

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FD:   Glancing at the ownership stuff, a couple gpp things really stood out - 

D.Henry   he is way too good to be at 1/3 the ownership of Cook/CMC/Kamara  

Minn passing attack:  looks like Cousins and all the pass catchers are <5%.    After seeing this, I toyed with a gpp LU of Minn stack + Henry for some double leverage vs. the field.  

It's week 1, and I think the rookies are a bit overhyped.   Anything can happen and I would guess more flop than hit for gpp upside.    IMO perfect gpp pivots would be players on the same team at way lower ownership.   What about  Gage instead of Pitts?  

A WR-WR secondary correlation that looks to be way less owned than other high target WRs is K.Allen - McLaurin.  

DTs - as usual, this looks like an awesome way to get a <5% play in your LU.   Looking at 2020 pressure rates, a few DTs were on that and look like 1% or so plays: Pitts, NO, NYG, KC.     

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Here's what I came up with after the above post:

Cousins - Henry/Robinson/Gibson - Jefferson/Higgins/Hopkins - Conklin - Wash

3 different correlations with the Minn/cin game stack then Hopkins/Henry and Gibson/Wash.  

 

I have 10 entries, and might try something like this for 2.  

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I was looking at game pace last night, and the top few games for that look to be:

Az/Tenn

LaC/Wash

Pitts/Buff

The first one was by far the best - these are the 1st and 2nd quickest teams last year.   The 3rd and 4th quickest teams faced off on Thursday with some fireworks.   

The slowest game looks to be the GB/NO game.  GB was the slowest last year, and NO the 5th slowest.  

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Lastly, to try to narrow down my focus on the 2 sites, I was playing around with the correlation tool and setting it for home or away for the teams and games I was looking at.  I will post the main ones I saw, and then I will say if it correlated more on FD or DK.   Ie Murray/Hopkins was the most correlated on both sites, but DK it was .51 and FD it was .39.  

Murray/Hopkins - DK

Ryan/Ridley - FD

Allen/Kroft (thought this was interesting, but not sure if Knox plugs in here) - FD

Burrow  correlated highly with Boyd and Higgins, and Higgins also correlated with Boyd highly - DK

Rodgers/Adams - FD

Mahomes/Kelce - DK

Cousins/Jefferson - DK

Hurts/Ertz - FD  (I was staring at this one a lot.  Huge pivot off Pitts for a large field gpp)

Wilson/Lockett - FD

Jimmy/Kittle - FD

Tannehill/Brown - FD   (what I found interesting in Tenn is the person Tannehill correlated the most with was.... Henry).  

 

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40 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Finished 120th with my best lineup. If Mahomes had thrown one more TD to Hil I would have been close to winning. $203 in, $343 out. Net positive for the week and stakes me for next week.

Great lineup.  Nice week. 

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9 hours ago, FatNate said:

120 in.  40 out.  
Moving on to week two. 
I will setup the another private contest for week two, and post it in the thread.  I will be capping it at 12 people, so it should fill. 

That's about how my DK day went.   Up $20 on FD.  

My day's tone was mostly revolving around me taking out Murray for Allen in all my cash LUs because all the "expert" sites were much heavier on Allen.   I also didn't trust my gut about all the rookies showing up in cash games - ie I didn't love Pitts or E.Moore by the end of the week and they were all over optimals and cash builds.   Oh well, on to week 2 like you said! 

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On 9/7/2021 at 2:41 PM, Solomon Grundy said:

So I used the QB + WR1 + opp WR1 almost every lineup last year and never hit big, so I'm going exclusively with the QB + WR1 as my stacks, and then piling on players I like. I will pick 8 or so RBs and use them exclusively (always high usage guys (20+ touches / game)) and then let the builders do the rest.

Yes its a small 1 week sample size, but the top 3 scorers in each of the 4 SE gpps I played in only had 3 players from the same game max. 2 had Mahommes+Hil+Kelce, 1 had Mahommes+Kelce+Chubb and 1 Hurts+Smith and M Davis. The winner of the biggest contest I was in(15k+) didn't even stack their QB with anyone-- Wilson.Mixon,Williams,Marv Jones,C Davis,JuJu,Hockenson,McCaffrey and Wash(195.06). The other 8 had a QB+ wr or te from same team and no run back at all.

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4 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

Yes its a small 1 week sample size, but the top 3 scorers in each of the 4 SE gpps I played in only had 3 players from the same game max. 2 had Mahommes+Hil+Kelce, 1 had Mahommes+Kelce+Chubb and 1 Hurts+Smith and M Davis. The winner of the biggest contest I was in(15k+) didn't even stack their QB with anyone-- Wilson.Mixon,Williams,Marv Jones,C Davis,JuJu,Hockenson,McCaffrey and Wash(195.06). The other 8 had a QB+ wr or te from same team and no run back at all.

Was there any other correlations/stacks in the LUs as well though? 

Here was the $1M winner on FD:

Mahomes - Swift/Mixon - Hill/Diggs/D.Samuel/C.Davis - Hockenson - Houst

The rare LU that doesn't have a RB in the flex, but there was secondary low % correlation with 3 players from the SF/Det game.   

 

Second place had Mahomes/Kelce/Hill + J.Williams/D.Samuel.   3rd was a huge game stack with 5 players from KC/Clev.  4th had 4 from KC/Clev and 5th had 4 from KC/Clev + Gordon/Denv D.   

 

 I will point out again that they (the pod/site that I keep bringing up that harps on these gpp ideas) are pretty specific that: a) they are talking about large gpps and when they look at the winning LUs they look specifically at the Milly Makers and b) they said the average was having 4-5 players that were correlated in the top LUs.    This is not 100% the strategy for a SE gpp or a gpp that might only have a couple hundred entries.    

 

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Their strategy for smaller gpps or bigger $SE is more on the lines of a cash + LU with a low%  same salary pivot or two.    

So instead of 3-4 from a game + a secondary stack, more like Mahomes + Hill then instead of chalky Pitts - a low owned Hockenson.  Instead of a chalky J.Robinson, a low owned Det Rb or D.Harris - stuff like that.  

I would expect the winner of a $20 SE would be less correlated and stacked up than the winner of the milly maker or the huge 25cent gpp.  

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11 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Their strategy for smaller gpps or bigger $SE is more on the lines of a cash + LU with a low%  same salary pivot or two.    

So instead of 3-4 from a game + a secondary stack, more like Mahomes + Hill then instead of chalky Pitts - a low owned Hockenson.  Instead of a chalky J.Robinson, a low owned Det Rb or D.Harris - stuff like that.  

I would expect the winner of a $20 SE would be less correlated and stacked up than the winner of the milly maker or the huge 25cent gpp.  

This is basically what I was trying to say earlier in the thread. Since I only play SE gpps with 1.1-25k entries I see alot less full game stacks. Like @Solomon Grundy, I take QB and 1-2 of his weapons and fill in with players with upside in good matchups. Not that this has ever helped me win anything more than $100 in a tourney, 😆

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14 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

This is basically what I was trying to say earlier in the thread. Since I only play SE gpps with 1.1-25k entries I see alot less full game stacks. Like @Solomon Grundy, I take QB and 1-2 of his weapons and fill in with players with upside in good matchups. Not that this has ever helped me win anything more than $100 in a tourney, 😆

And I will admit to be biased as well, after I started focusing on the correlations more was when I actually hit a decent payday last year, so I want to keep hammering on that.  

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Also, it's not a hard rule for me, but I am more likely to double stack a non running QB than I am a running QB.   IE - Lamar probably a higher ceiling for a game if he runs a bunch and has a couple TDs that way.   Dudes like Brady are probably going to have to pass a ton to get there, so I would likely stack him with 2 pass catching options.  

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