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TE 4-6: fool’s gold or league winners? (1 Viewer)

What do you do?

  • Take one of the 4-6 ranked TEs. You’ll still get an advantage at the position.

    Votes: 50 53.2%
  • Punt! You can pair up guys like Tonyan, Higbee, Troutman, Smith, streamers & be better off takin

    Votes: 44 46.8%

  • Total voters
    94

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
If I miss the “big 3” I can’t decide if I should wait until late & gamble on a Higbee/Irv Smith duo or take one of the 4-6 guys (Hockenson/Pitts/Andrews in whichever order) 

Like the old pirate / steering wheel sticking out the fly joke, it’s driving me nuts. 

Mocking, I’ve managed some good teams taking one of the 4-6 guys in the 5-6 rounds, but those rounds are ripe with quality WRs, semi-elite RB, & the last tier of elite QBs.

What are all y’all doing?  4-6 TE or punt until later? 
 

 
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I've been taking Pitts in a lot best ball Underdog drafts. Definitely a gamble, but the upside seems worth it to me after missing out on the top guys. If I don't get one of Kelce, Waller, Kittle, Pitts, or Hock, I end up punting until pretty late. Jarwin or Ertz are late grabs that I like.

 
Got burned last year at TE in multiple leagues, will be trying to at least get a Hock/Andrews if I miss on the top few.

 
I take Kelce in round 1. I have him #2 overall after CMC, if by some chance he is gone, I like Kittle if he makes it to round 4, which isn't often, but I don't trust him higher than that, and Waller is just going too high for me. 

I want no part of that 4-6 group, I think they are quite a bit below Kittle. I prefer Andrews of that group, but they are all going higher than I'd like, and I hate just taking a guy to fill a position that highly.

I do like Noah Fant in the 8th/9th round, Mike Gesicki in the 10th, and Jonnu in the 11th, but I don't trust any of them at all. 

I know it was more a strategy question, than a specific player, but man, I have no interest in Higbee or Irv Smith at all at ADP. Maybe in round 10 I might, but Smith and especially Higbee are long gone by then. 

 
I think the real question is how do we figure out who in the punt category has the best chance of ending up in the top five.  I don't know if I've seen anyone come up with any names of tes they think can jump in the mix, which is rare for any position group this deep into the off season.

 
I've been taking Pitts in a lot best ball Underdog drafts. Definitely a gamble, but the upside seems worth it to me after missing out on the top guys. If I don't get one of Kelce, Waller, Kittle, Pitts, or Hock, I end up punting until pretty late. Jarwin or Ertz are late grabs that I like.
Ive been burned so so many times by the 4-6 groups year after year. 

I drafted Pitts in dynasty & I’m trying not to let that excitement cloud my judgement for redraft. 

That said, I disagree with somerhinf I read recently - basically that we’re drafting Pitts at his ceiling. That he has to deliver monstrous numbers to be worthy of his ADP.  I’d say he has to deliver comparable numbers to Hock & Andrews since those are the dudes with comparable ADP. And all 3 have upside to justify a 3rd round pick but they’re available in the 5th.

So I guess the question is whether the drop off form Kittle to Hockenson, Andrews or Pitts is large enough to negate any positional advantage as compared to having a better WR2-3 or RB3 or better tier QB taken in the same rounds. 

Are TE4-6 fool’s gold? 

 
I want no part of that 4-6 group, I think they are quite a bit below Kittle. I prefer Andrews of that group, but they are all going higher than I'd like, and I hate just taking a guy to fill a position that highly.


that’s exactly the question. If that’s true, then we’re better off waiting until Fant or other non top 6 TEs. 

But I’m not sure that’s not true. If Pitts comes out with a 65/800/7 season, which seems modest considering the talent & situation, he’s going to give every bit the advantage of a Kittle.

Hock’s offense scares me, Andrews TDs might keep his value down, but all 3 of these dudes could certainly be difference makers.

I do like Noah Fant in the 8th/9th round, Mike Gesicki in the 10th, and Jonnu in the 11th, but I don't trust any of them at all. 

I know it was more a strategy question, than a specific player, but man, I have no interest in Higbee or Irv Smith at all at ADP. Maybe in round 10 I might, but Smith and especially Higbee are long gone by then. 
I like Fant as well. And yeah, those two names were drawn out of a hat with like 12 TEs I have at about the same value. I do like both more than you though. but if you’re taking Kelce 1.02 you wont really need one of them. :)  

 
I think the real question is how do we figure out who in the punt category has the best chance of ending up in the top five.  I don't know if I've seen anyone come up with any names of tes they think can jump in the mix, which is rare for any position group this deep into the off season.
 I am curious on who this year’s come from nowhere guys could be, if there are any…

Dan Arnold - post hype sleeper?

Dawson Knox?

Anthony Firkser?

Mo alie Cox?

Jordan Akins?

 
I think the real question is how do we figure out who in the punt category has the best chance of ending up in the top five.  I don't know if I've seen anyone come up with any names of tes they think can jump in the mix, which is rare for any position group this deep into the off season.
I’ve seen several lists  there’s no consensus. Among experts/industry folks

seems like every time I start to get behind one or another as a sleeper I’ll read 10 reasons they’re not. Take Tonyan for example. TD machine last year, lot of folks projecting a TD regression from ARod, and suggesting Tonyan would also suffer from this. And he was kind of a TD-defendant play. 

so is he someone you can rely on or someone you run out hoping for the TD every week?

Smith looks like he might be the 3rd or 4th target in that receiving game after  Thielen, Jefferson & maybe probably Cook. But the Vikes do like them some TE In the RZ.

Higbee could be a breakout too. Or not. lol. There’s just so much flotsam - I agree. The key is figuring out which ones are viable fantasy starts & grab 2 if you miss the top guys.

but is it a top 3 or a top 6? I still can’t decide if 4-6 gives me an advantage over the weekly streamers. 🤔 

 
 I am curious on who this year’s come from nowhere guys could be, if there are any…

Dan Arnold - post hype sleeper?

Dawson Knox?

Anthony Firkser?

Mo alie Cox?

Jordan Akins?
Doesn’t really fit the criteria but I’m coming around on the idea that Ertz is ranked too low.  He was bad last year but the team was a mess.  He’s getting good reviews in Eagles camp and I think he could bounce back with decent numbers whether he’s still with the Eagles or gets traded. 

 
Load up on RBs/backups and get Jonnu Smith late and see you in the playoffs.

  :wub:

 (Actually you can get Goedert, Fant, Engram/-Rudolph is likely out 6 weeks- and others and do just fine) 

If I don't get one of the top 2-3 (and I won't)  I'll wait until late and reap the RB benefits.

 TZM

 
bold. 

I’ve seen him creep higher & higher.

But that’s very bold. 
In all honesty, I want to make a case for Kelce at #1. 

I think the drop off from him to Waller/Kittle, might be as big as the drop off from CMC to someone like Swift, who is going around, and often later than Waller/Kittle. Before that monster finish where Waller had 43-654-4 in his last 5 games(an unsustainable pace of 137-2092-12) he had 64-542-5 in his first 11 games(a pace of 93-788-7) which feels closer to his likely outcome to me, with a likely higher YPC. In that 5 game super stretch, Derek Carr went over 300 yards in every game(except the one he got hurt in) which he did in only 2 other games in that 11 game sample size. I think we have seen enough of Carr to know that was a major outlier for him, and in turn is likely a major one for Waller. I see Waller going at the 2/3 turn and that feels like a full round too high to me. I'm 50-50 on Waller v. Kittle to be honest.

The drop off from Kelce to say Irv Smith, might be as big as the drop off from CMC to somebody like Damien Harris, which isn't as big as a drop in ADP, but is pretty steep. Kelce is honestly my pick to lead the NFL in receiving. The best thing about him, is that he's essentially your #1 WR, so in a way, your #3 WR is basically filling your TE spot, so if you have say, Kenny Golladay as your WR3, he only has to outscore your opponents TE in a sense.

 I am curious on who this year’s come from nowhere guys could be, if there are any…

Mo alie Cox?
I think MAC is a really talented guy, who just needs more snaps. He's got top-10 maybe even top-5 upside if things break right. However things breaking right likely means Doyle+WR get hurt, and Wentz bounces back a bit, but there is a Logan Thomas like size/speed mismatch there if he gets the targets. 

 
Doesn’t really fit the criteria but I’m coming around on the idea that Ertz is ranked too low.  He was bad last year but the team was a mess.  He’s getting good reviews in Eagles camp and I think he could bounce back with decent numbers whether he’s still with the Eagles or gets traded. 
I have no doubt Ertz is capable of more than he was last year. But splitting time with Goddart, limiting both of their upside, no? 

Also I’m not yet convinced that the offense isn’t still a mess. 

 
I'm not sure how to vote here because I dont see this as an either or decision. You could do both.

The decision to take one of the earlier TE depends on who else is there. TE like Andrew's could be the top target for their team and certainly competitive with the WR available there from a VBD petspective.

Some of the later TE like Irv Smith or Jonnu Smith might be able to put up numbers similarly good as Andrew's does but with less certainty of them doing so.

I think you limit your overall roster potential by thinking if you take one earlier that means you pass on others later and vice versa if you pass on a earlier one because you believe one of the later guys will be just as good.

Obviously the highest ROE will be to take one of the later TE you believe in and being right about that. There are reasons why those TE are drafted later though and if you are wrong you got nothing then.

I dont like putting all my eggs in one basket so my honest answer is try to do both.

Be like water and let the draft come to you. If the TE is in the same value tier at draft spot as other positions then take the TE wherever in the draft that might be.

I play in a lot of TE premium leagues though and some where you must start 2 TE as well, so from my perspective they are all valuable and I want to have more than just one I feel good about starting.

 
I'm not sure how to vote here because I dont see this as an either or decision. You could do both.

The decision to take one of the earlier TE depends on who else is there. TE like Andrew's could be the top target for their team and certainly competitive with the WR available there from a VBD petspective.

Some of the later TE like Irv Smith or Jonnu Smith might be able to put up numbers similarly good as Andrew's does but with less certainty of them doing so.

I think you limit your overall roster potential by thinking if you take one earlier that means you pass on others later and vice versa if you pass on a earlier one because you believe one of the later guys will be just as good.

Obviously the highest ROE will be to take one of the later TE you believe in and being right about that. There are reasons why those TE are drafted later though and if you are wrong you got nothing then.

I dont like putting all my eggs in one basket so my honest answer is try to do both.

Be like water and let the draft come to you. If the TE is in the same value tier at draft spot as other positions then take the TE wherever in the draft that might be.

I play in a lot of TE premium leagues though and some where you must start 2 TE as well, so from my perspective they are all valuable and I want to have more than just one I feel good about starting.
Not really what I was asserting but I appreciate the thoughtful perspective nonetheless. 

I will absolutely let the draft come to me. But at some point one needs to commit to taking one of those top TE when they’re in one’s sights. As you suggested,  they have the ADP they have because they’re as valuable as the players around them.

So really it’s committing to a strategy of taking one of them if they fall to you. The question is how worth it are 4-6? Easier to make the case for the big 3, perhaps. 

 
Seems like most of the replies here are advocating waiting for an Irv Smith, Jonnu, Blake Jarwin, or Jared Cook.

I think many of us can say "been there done that".  Isn't that what most of us have done every single year?  Hope one of these "high upside / opportunity" guys will hit, meanwhile we've spent the draft capital in the 4th-6th round on a high upside WR2 and our team is now unstoppable?  Sigh.  If only it were that easy.

I guess in the end, the simple way to look at it is there's a reason why Hockensen/Andrews/Pitts are all in that second tier.  Because they are perceived to be safer than the crapshoot guys at the end of the list.  Every year I struggle with tight end.  I think just for once, I'd like to know what it's like to put a guy in the lineup and not hold my nose.  Of these three, I actually prefer Hockensen, despite the perceived weakness of the Detroit offense.  Beat writers are saying he looks like the best guy in camp, he's developed a rapport with Goff, and he has a good chance to lead the team in targets/receptions/TDs.  For a tight end, I follow the targets.

 
There is a scarcity issue as far as quality TE options, there really are not a lot of those.

I think if forced to stream a position, it will be easier to do that with WR than TE.

So I dont mindt to take TE  if I get 2 or 3 of them at the expense of not having as many WR I am ok with that 

Passing on RB for TE is harder because RB are scarce too.

 
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if you don't take a TE early you might as well stream the position. there is no benefit to take a 5-6 ranked TE over some WRs or RBs that might still be available. or even one of the top 5 defenses. if the hole in your roster is the TE position it's far better than to have a hole in your WR2 or RB2. fill out your roster then come back to TE. 

I do like what someone said about Ertz, that he might be criminally low here. might be good value as a sleeper type guy.

 
I may be in the minority, but I don't think the big gap between 1-3 and 4-6 will continue and there may be value in the latter group.

I think one or two of these 4-6 guys - my guess is Pitts and Hock - will narrow the gap with the top 3. Just not sure that Kelce and Waller will sustain that level of receptions, yards AND TDs relative to the others. And I think Kittle may drop a bit given the inevitable move to Lance and the presence of both Samuel and Aiyuk.

 
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Unless it's a TE premium league, I'm passing on all early TEs at curerent ADP.   Would rather do that and take a shot on the Logan Thomas, Irv Smiths and Jonnu Smiths...hell, even Austin Hooper could catch 60 balls.

 
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There is a scarcity issue as far as quality TE options, there really are not a lot of those.

I think if forced to stream a position, it will be easier to do that with WR than TE.

So I dont mindt to take TE  if I get 2 or 3 of them at the expense of not having as many WR I am ok with that 

Passing on RB for TE is harder because RB are scarce too.
This is kind of where I am at; I drew the 1.07 in redraft so I feel compelled to focus on 2 RBs + 2 WRs to start the draft. The opportunity cost of taking a Big 3 is too high, just don’t like the overall roster construction.

Streaming feels like trying to guess which one of TE 7-19 will score a TD. Losing strategy. Andrews, Hock & Pitts should all have a decent market share. I’m inclined to think TJ is the most likely to see a big jump.

 
Seems like most of the replies here are advocating waiting for an Irv Smith, Jonnu, Blake Jarwin, or Jared Cook.

I think many of us can say "been there done that".  Isn't that what most of us have done every single year?  Hope one of these "high upside / opportunity" guys will hit, meanwhile we've spent the draft capital in the 4th-6th round on a high upside WR2 and our team is now unstoppable?  Sigh.  If only it were that easy.

I guess in the end, the simple way to look at it is there's a reason why Hockensen/Andrews/Pitts are all in that second tier.  Because they are perceived to be safer than the crapshoot guys at the end of the list.  Every year I struggle with tight end.  I think just for once, I'd like to know what it's like to put a guy in the lineup and not hold my nose.  Of these three, I actually prefer Hockensen, despite the perceived weakness of the Detroit offense.  Beat writers are saying he looks like the best guy in camp, he's developed a rapport with Goff, and he has a good chance to lead the team in targets/receptions/TDs.  For a tight end, I follow the targets.
Absolutely correct here IMO.  I've often been the last guy to take a TE because I either miss out on the top 2-3 or I don't think they're quite equal to their ADP - and then I end up cycling through waiver TEs all year long chasing the points.  This year my firm plan is to take one out of the Hock/Andrews/Fant/Goedert tier, so that means I'm monitoring the TEs closely and I want to be the 7th or 8th person to take one.  In every mock or redraft I've done so far, it's Kelce in the first, Kittle and Waller usually in the third, then someone always jumps for Pitts 4th.  I'm good with any of the next four that I mentioned above, but I plan to wait until one or two are taken, then grab what's left (don't be the one to pop the lid on that tier). 

 
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Haven't done enough mocks yet to really get a sense of my TE strategy, but I'm thinking I would like to target the 4-6ers. A lot of it is just avoiding the agita. Streaming QB/DST is relatively simple and predictable, but streaming TE is just really ####ing annoying.

That said, if those guys end up being too rich for my blood, I will probably try to target Trautman, Fant or Smith as my late-round dart throw, in that order. In my league that allows a TE flex, I might even take two.

 
A lot of it is just avoiding the agita.
this is the last 7-8 years for me. Ive streamed and its a frustrating weekly dart throw.

4-6 may be a drop down from 1-3, but they come at a lower price and have a safer weekly floor. 

I know Andrews will have a sizable target share even on a passing offense predicted to be low volume. 

I know the Falcons want to use Pitts all over the field and as a primary receiver as opposed to blocking. 

And I know Hock will be a focal point of the offense, but I want to avoid Lions in general. They feel icky. 

 
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I take Kelce in round 1. I have him #2 overall after CMC, if by some chance he is gone, I like Kittle if he makes it to round 4, which isn't often, but I don't trust him higher than that, and Waller is just going too high for me. 

I want no part of that 4-6 group, I think they are quite a bit below Kittle. I prefer Andrews of that group, but they are all going higher than I'd like, and I hate just taking a guy to fill a position that highly.

I do like Noah Fant in the 8th/9th round, Mike Gesicki in the 10th, and Jonnu in the 11th, but I don't trust any of them at all. 

I know it was more a strategy question, than a specific player, but man, I have no interest in Higbee or Irv Smith at all at ADP. Maybe in round 10 I might, but Smith and especially Higbee are long gone by then. 
Gesicki would be a great value at #10. He and Tua have a great connection going back to last year. Did you see the 50 yard catch and run from Tua last week, followed by a tough 3rd and 6 conversion where he wouldn't let the safety take the ball away. Miami has other TEs who have been targeted around the goal line - Shaheen had 3 and Smythe 2, and maybe Hunter Long this year - but Gesicki has been targeted inside the 10 on 15 passes the last 2 years, only catching 4, which he should improve. Also, contract year.

 
A ferw players I would rather take over Hockenson right now per FantasyPros ADP...

Aiyuk

Henderson

Tee Higgins

He's actually lower than I thought he would be there...he's obviously going much higher in my FFPC 1.5 PPR TE premium best balls.

 
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A ferw players I would rather take over Hockins right now per FantasyPros ADP...

Aiyuk

Henderson

Tee Higgins

He's actually lower than I thought he would be there...he's obviously going much higher in my FFPC 1.5 PPR TE premium best balls.
That's my biggest concern with targeting that level of TE. My strategy is shaping up as, make sure to get two solid RBs within the first three rounds (if not the first two), so those middle rounds will be about shoring up my WR depth chart with guys like Aiyuk. I don't yet know how much taking a TE there will throw off that strategy; that's one of my main assignments for the next couple weeks.

 
It seems I might be in the minority of everyone on Hock, but I love him.  The only thing you can look for with TE is opportunity and in a PPR - Hock is the only guy in town.  

I can't see myself taking Higbee because he has done very little with the chances he has been given.  I read this article by Andrew Cooper: https://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/AndrewCooper/110083/2021-nfl-draft-guide-ultimate-te-draft-guide-the-elite/ - thanks to this community discussing it earlier.  I thought it was a pretty compelling read.  I was open to waiting for a TE to drop, but I think you will be constantly chasing production from a platoon of TE's - scares me. 

1. Kelce
2. Waller
_______________________________

3. Kittle
4. Hockenson
5. Andrews
6. Pitts (boom/bust guy for me)  - have him in Dynasty and not willing to roll the dice in Redraft (might regret)
_______________________________________

7. Goedert & Fant - cannot believe Goedert is still holding high redraft value beause Ertz is not gone - do not trust the situation.  

8. The field... I love the Patriots TE group, but really don't know who to trust.  Is Henry the Gronk and Jonnu the Hernandez in that offense?  I am just not sure... 

 
I don't yet know how much taking a TE there will throw off that strategy; that's one of my main assignments for the next couple weeks.


basically the whole premise of the topic summarized well. 
1. TE 4-6 give an advantage at the position over half (or more) of the league. 
2. There’s potential of at least 1 of  TE 4-6 to perform as well as TE 2-3 (there’s only one Kelce)

3. What does one have to forego to get a TE 4-6 in those critical depth late 4th through 5th & maybe 6th rounds?

To me the question boils down to whether one is borrowing from Peter to pay Paul. If I spend “WR2” or RB3 money on a TE, can i recover that investment later?  And if I’ve already let the draft come to me & that dictated going RB-WR-WR-WR because that’s where the greatest value was, now I’m downgrading my RB2 & RB3 to grab that 5th round guy. So situational drafting comes to mind as well - in that hypothetical scenario I’d probably wait & go for the Fant tier. But if I’m balanced with 2/2, I’m likely going to go for the upside of a Pitts or Andrews & hope I can mine the later rounds for value at WR & RB3. 

It definitely adds risk. As has been pointed out, RB is also a position of limited depth. 

That’s the dilemma. More and more I’m talking myself into a TE4-6. 4-5 more specifically. 

 
In all honesty, I want to make a case for Kelce at #1. 

I think the drop off from him to Waller/Kittle, might be as big as the drop off from CMC to someone like Swift, who is going around, and often later than Waller/Kittle. Before that monster finish where Waller had 43-654-4 in his last 5 games(an unsustainable pace of 137-2092-12) he had 64-542-5 in his first 11 games(a pace of 93-788-7) which feels closer to his likely outcome to me, with a likely higher YPC. In that 5 game super stretch, Derek Carr went over 300 yards in every game(except the one he got hurt in) which he did in only 2 other games in that 11 game sample size. I think we have seen enough of Carr to know that was a major outlier for him, and in turn is likely a major one for Waller. I see Waller going at the 2/3 turn and that feels like a full round too high to me. I'm 50-50 on Waller v. Kittle to be honest.

The drop off from Kelce to say Irv Smith, might be as big as the drop off from CMC to somebody like Damien Harris, which isn't as big as a drop in ADP, but is pretty steep. Kelce is honestly my pick to lead the NFL in receiving. The best thing about him, is that he's essentially your #1 WR, so in a way, your #3 WR is basically filling your TE spot, so if you have say, Kenny Golladay as your WR3, he only has to outscore your opponents TE in a sense.

I think MAC is a really talented guy, who just needs more snaps. He's got top-10 maybe even top-5 upside if things break right. However things breaking right likely means Doyle+WR get hurt, and Wentz bounces back a bit, but there is a Logan Thomas like size/speed mismatch there if he gets the targets. 
Waller could be #1 this year. 

 
It seems I might be in the minority of everyone on Hock, but I love him.  The only thing you can look for with TE is opportunity and in a PPR - Hock is the only guy in town.  

I can't see myself taking Higbee because he has done very little with the chances he has been given.  I read this article by Andrew Cooper: https://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/AndrewCooper/110083/2021-nfl-draft-guide-ultimate-te-draft-guide-the-elite/ - thanks to this community discussing it earlier.  I thought it was a pretty compelling read.  I was open to waiting for a TE to drop, but I think you will be constantly chasing production from a platoon of TE's - scares me. 

1. Kelce
2. Waller
_______________________________

3. Kittle
4. Hockenson
5. Andrews
6. Pitts (boom/bust guy for me)  - have him in Dynasty and not willing to roll the dice in Redraft (might regret)
_______________________________________

7. Goedert & Fant - cannot believe Goedert is still holding high redraft value beause Ertz is not gone - do not trust the situation.  

8. The field... I love the Patriots TE group, but really don't know who to trust.  Is Henry the Gronk and Jonnu the Hernandez in that offense?  I am just not sure... 


this is a great way to group them. I do think Kittle sneaks into the 1st tier, but there’s definitely a case to be made that a change at QB presents an x-factor. 

good post. 👍🏼

 

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