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RB Sony Michel (1 Viewer)

irish eyes said:
I wouldn't want ANY of Adams sony, or juju. Trust me I have all 3 and has made me not to want to play next year. Juju is going to be a 3 or 4 reception 40 yard player all year. Adams will probably be affected by the toe injury rest of season. Michel's garbage 1 yard tds will come to an end very soon, and that is all he is good for.
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Just curious . . . is this position based on them suddenly playing against teams with shut down defenses and NE never even getting across midfield? Do people not understand the Patriots have shown as little as possible on offense and defense and are saving the playbook for future games? NE has been winning going away rotating about 30 plays on offense. They are keeping their powder dry until they need to dial up a game plan for real. So many media folks are talking about the team like this is the best they have to offer. It's not.

Gordon, Harry, and Sanu are going to be added to the mix. Wynn should help the OL. Burkhead should be back soon. Watson certainly can't be any worse than their other TE's. And they likely aren't done in the trade market. The point being, IMO, Michel will most likely only see MORE red zone work, not less.

We've discussed Michel the past few weeks and he's actually scored BETTER since you keep bashing him. So in that regard, keep it up!

 
Gottabesweet said:
Some games it'll be Brady sneaks, some White, some Bolden. They played the Jets and ran Michel multiple times from the 1 yard line just to get in.  In weeks past that wasn't the case. Plus Burkhead has been out.  He's clearly a sell high but I don't think many will bite.

Not to mention he limped off the field late in that game. 
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He was a buy low . . . and I mean REALLY low a few weeks ago. As already discussed, he's been the #6 or 7 fantasy RB the past three weeks. The NE offense is only going to get healthier and do better as the season progresses. NE has BARELY dipped into their playbook because in most games they have been up 20+ points. They will dial up the offense against better teams.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Just curious . . . is this position based on them suddenly playing against teams with shut down defenses and NE never even getting across midfield? Do people not understand the Patriots have shown as little as possible on offense and defense and are saving the playbook for future games? NE has been winning going away rotating about 30 plays on offense. They are keeping their powder dry until they need to dial up a game plan for real. So many media folks are talking about the team like this is the best they have to offer. It's not.

Gordon, Harry, and Sanu are going to be added to the mix. Wynn should help the OL. Burkhead should be back soon. Watson certainly can't be any worse than their other TE's. And they likely aren't done in the trade market. The point being, IMO, Michel will most likely only see MORE red zone work, not less.

We've discussed Michel the past few weeks and he's actually scored BETTER since you keep bashing him. So in that regard, keep it up!
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I think as they play better offense's we see more James White, not more Michel, however I am surprised he saw more work after that horrendous drop in the passing game.

 
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Gottabesweet said:
I think as they play better offense's we see more James White, not more Michel. 
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NE has been blowing teams out through killer defense and ball control. When you have a two to one TOP advantage, it's pretty hard to lose.

In his last 16 games played for NE, Michael has totaled 291-1204-14 with 10-79-0 receiving. The numbers are the numbers. The TD's are probably a little high and the receiving numbers are a little low (they are starting to have him targeted more frequently). But that is the Michel footprint in this offense.

 
LordHusker said:
Why exactly will "Michel's garbage 1-yard TDs come to an end very soon"? Did I miss the news? Is he retiring? As long as he's the Patriots' goal-line back -- and they basically ran him into the ground at the goal line last night -- Michel has value.
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I thought Michel had a very good chance at leading the league in TDs before the season started.  I didn't expect him to look as bad as he's looked, so I don't think thats the case anymore, but he still looks like he'll score 12-15 TDs in LaGarrette Blount fashion.  

That said, I dealt him away last week in dynasty for Darren Waller.  He may be the best option for the Patriots in 2019, but he's got mac and cheese knees, little lateral agility, and doesn't break tackles.  I suspect someone else will be scoring those TDs for NE next year, and in two years he'll be out of work.  

 
Kitrick Taylor said:
I thought Michel had a very good chance at leading the league in TDs before the season started.  I didn't expect him to look as bad as he's looked, so I don't think thats the case anymore, but he still looks like he'll score 12-15 TDs in LaGarrette Blount fashion.  

That said, I dealt him away last week in dynasty for Darren Waller.  He may be the best option for the Patriots in 2019, but he's got mac and cheese knees, little lateral agility, and doesn't break tackles.  I suspect someone else will be scoring those TDs for NE next year, and in two years he'll be out of work.  
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I listen to BB all the time, and he has flat out said the problem has not been Michel. It's been the lack of blocking. While people will point to Michel getting nowhere a lot of times, I will repeat the benefits he offers. He protects the ball. He picks up blitzers. And he sets up play action that has lead to chunk plays and long TD's. BB will take that every single game. He said everything at this point is still a work in progress with guys coming in and out of the lineup, but he actually praised Michel for working hard and doing exactly what they wanted from him. I am sure BB would like it if the run game was a little more productive, but I don't think he will be running out getting even more RB's next year. Michel's knees are a concern (and should have been a red flag to any NFL team drafting him). A lot will depend if he is as good as he is going to get or if his knees are just banged up from an early season injury. He seems like a modern day Eddie George, and there are worse things than that to have on an NFL roster. If NE looks to run the ball, they have been giving him the ball pretty consistently. The one game this year he really wasn't involved was a game where they passed almost every down in the first half.

 
Anarchy99 said:
He was a buy low . . . and I mean REALLY low a few weeks ago. As already discussed, he's been the #6 or 7 fantasy RB the past three weeks. The NE offense is only going to get healthier and do better as the season progresses. NE has BARELY dipped into their playbook because in most games they have been up 20+ points. They will dial up the offense against better teams.
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I don't feel very strongly about Michel one way or another, but I see a couple holes in this narrative:

Belichick doesn't seem like a coach that would dumb down anything or hold anything back.  He's the quintessential, "don't ever take anyone lightly and never take your foot off the gas" guy.  Brady was in there throwing deep with a 33 point lead last night.

That said, assuming you're right, Michel would be the prime beneficiary of a dumbed down attack, and the first person to lose when they "dial up" the offense.  Dumbed down = lots of vanilla running plays.  Dialed up = the opposite of vanilla running plays.

 
davearm said:
I don't feel very strongly about Michel one way or another, but I see a couple holes in this narrative:

Belichick doesn't seem like a coach that would dumb down anything or hold anything back.  He's the quintessential, "don't ever take anyone lightly and never take your foot off the gas" guy.  Brady was in there throwing deep with a 33 point lead last night.

That said, assuming you're right, Michel would be the prime beneficiary of a dumbed down attack, and the first person to lose when they "dial up" the offense.  Dumbed down = lots of vanilla running plays.  Dialed up = the opposite of vanilla running plays.
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But he is still their bell cow / bruiser (bruised?) / primary goal line back. A more wide open offense gives him more lanes and fewer defenders in the box. He also has started seeing targets, which he really hasn't seen before. The point being, NE should see more goal line looks, not less (unless he can't gain six inches consistently or starts to fumble).

 
Anarchy99 said:
I listen to BB all the time, and he has flat out said the problem has not been Michel. It's been the lack of blocking. While people will point to Michel getting nowhere a lot of times, I will repeat the benefits he offers. He protects the ball. He picks up blitzers. And he sets up play action that has lead to chunk plays and long TD's. BB will take that every single game. He said everything at this point is still a work in progress with guys coming in and out of the lineup, but he actually praised Michel for working hard and doing exactly what they wanted from him. I am sure BB would like it if the run game was a little more productive, but I don't think he will be running out getting even more RB's next year. Michel's knees are a concern (and should have been a red flag to any NFL team drafting him). A lot will depend if he is as good as he is going to get or if his knees are just banged up from an early season injury. He seems like a modern day Eddie George, and there are worse things than that to have on an NFL roster. If NE looks to run the ball, they have been giving him the ball pretty consistently. The one game this year he really wasn't involved was a game where they passed almost every down in the first half.
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I respect your insight into the Pats.  But honestly, what else is BB going to say?  His starting RB is no good?  Last year Sony averaged 4.5 yards/carry.  This year he's at 3.3, and looks way more pedestrian, and he isn't making up for his lack of explosiveness with tackle breaking toughness.  I suspect something is wrong with his knees, but obviously don't have any real insight into what's going on behind the scenes.  Either way, his production right now is reliant upon situational volume.  In dynasty, your best bet is to bet on talent.  IMO Waller > Michel.  

 
Kitrick Taylor said:
I respect your insight into the Pats.  But honestly, what else is BB going to say?  His starting RB is no good?  Last year Sony averaged 4.5 yards/carry.  This year he's at 3.3, and looks way more pedestrian, and he isn't making up for his lack of explosiveness with tackle breaking toughness.  I suspect something is wrong with his knees, but obviously don't have any real insight into what's going on behind the scenes.  Either way, his production right now is reliant upon situational volume.  In dynasty, your best bet is to bet on talent.  IMO Waller > Michel.  
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I'd be real curious on if he's going to practice this week? He limped off albeit jogged off, but the game was over and they were then kneeling the ball so no way of knowing what happened until we start seeing some practice reports.

 
Kitrick Taylor said:
I respect your insight into the Pats.  But honestly, what else is BB going to say?  His starting RB is no good?  Last year Sony averaged 4.5 yards/carry.  This year he's at 3.3, and looks way more pedestrian, and he isn't making up for his lack of explosiveness with tackle breaking toughness.  I suspect something is wrong with his knees, but obviously don't have any real insight into what's going on behind the scenes.  Either way, his production right now is reliant upon situational volume.  In dynasty, your best bet is to bet on talent.  IMO Waller > Michel.  
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Not apples to apples. Last year healthy OL + healthy FB + Gronk and Allen blowing people off the line. This year banged up OL, no FB's, no blocking TE's, and Michel is stuck in neutral. BB knows this. Also noteworthy is BB mentioned this on his own and wasn't asked about it. He does radio interviews all the time and has way more to say than the laughable press conferences.

 
I know it was limited plays, but didn;t we kind of like Harris performance?  Especially - I think it was his last carry - ran between the tackles and move guys 4 yards.

If I were watching that - all other things aside - I would have a new short yardage guy after last night.

 
Anarchy99 said:
But he is still their bell cow / bruiser (bruised?) / primary goal line back. A more wide open offense gives him more lanes and fewer defenders in the box. He also has started seeing targets, which he really hasn't seen before. The point being, NE should see more goal line looks, not less (unless he can't gain six inches consistently or starts to fumble).
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He's going to see more goalline looks playing against stronger opponents than he's seen playing against inferior teams?  Not sure that's very logical.

FWIW, Legarette Blount averaged 1.5 GL touches per game, 2015-16.  Dion Lewis averaged 0.33 in 2017.  Michel averaged 1.25 last season.  This year he's at 1.57.

So he's already seeing all the GL work we should expect, and maybe a bit more.

 
The Dude said:
I know it was limited plays, but didn;t we kind of like Harris performance?  Especially - I think it was his last carry - ran between the tackles and move guys 4 yards.

If I were watching that - all other things aside - I would have a new short yardage guy after last night.
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He was stuffed a few times and lost yardage.  Had two nice runs, Sony had some nice runs as well, as well as some stinkers. No way this is happening

 
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Anarchy99 said:
NE had no OL injuries last year, a great blocking FB, and two great blocking tight ends in Gronk and Allen. This year, the OL has multiple injuries, they have no healthy FB, they don’t really have a blocking TE (and the ones they have are hurt). It’s not Michel’s fault they can’t block. 
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I'm not talking about the line, I'm talking about Michel. Even when he has some room he looks like a different player out there.

 
The problem with Michel is that it looks like his value is going to come mostly in goaline TDs. Which could mean a whole bunch of TDs thanks to being on such a great team. Only, as every knows, the most defining and best attribute of the Patriots is that they are unpredictable and can/do score a million different ways. Being at the 1 yard line doesn’t dictate a power run like it does most teams. It could be a QB dive, a quick slant to a slot receiver, a shovel to the TE, etc. And just because they’ve done one thing so far doesn’t mean that they will continue to do that. 
 

That unpredictability that makes the Patriots so good, makes fantasy GMs crazy. I can definitely see why people would want to trade him for a player that they see as having a more predictable role in their team’s offense. Sure, he may end up with 12+ rushing TDs, or he may get sniped by Brady whether on the ground or through the air and end up with 8. And without the TDs, he doesn’t have a lot of value because he’s not generating a lot of yards or receptions. 
 

He’s a great flex play IMO and a good #2 if you have a stud #1, but the unpredictability of the Patriots absolutely lowers his value.

 
Anarchy99 said:
But he is still their bell cow / bruiser (bruised?) / primary goal line back. A more wide open offense gives him more lanes and fewer defenders in the box. He also has started seeing targets, which he really hasn't seen before. The point being, NE should see more goal line looks, not less (unless he can't gain six inches consistently or starts to fumble).
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In the last game Burkhead played before getting hurt Sony had 9 carries for 11 yards (Burkhead 11-47, a goaline touchdown, and 6 receptions).

I think it's unwise to ignore that.

BB can tell the media that Sony is not the problem all he wants, we all know he's often less than honest with them.  But our eyes can see the way Sony looks, the way he kills them as a receiver every time they try to involve him more, and the way Burkhead's usage was trending upwards and actually surpassing Sony's before the injury.

Burkhead was questionable this week so he will probably be back soon.  Sony with half the volume he's been getting is not someone you want in your lineup, and that's assuming that the Pats don't suddenly come out one week and give Damien Harris 20 touches while both Sony and Burkhead ride the pine.  You never know here.

I guess the only thing going for keeping him is that no one else wants him either so you can't really get anything for him, and may as well just ride it out and hope that he doesn't burn you when it hurts most like we all know is a very very real possibility.

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
In the last game Burkhead played before getting hurt Sony had 9 carries for 11 yards (Burkhead 11-47, a goaline touchdown, and 6 receptions).

I think it's unwise to ignore that.

BB can tell the media that Sony is not the problem all he wants, we all know he's often less than honest with them.  But our eyes can see the way Sony looks, the way he kills them as a receiver every time they try to involve him more, and the way Burkhead's usage was trending upwards and actually surpassing Sony's before the injury.

Burkhead was questionable this week so he will probably be back soon.  Sony with half the volume he's been getting is not someone you want in your lineup, and that's assuming that the Pats don't suddenly come out one week and give Damien Harris 20 touches while both Sony and Burkhead ride the pine.  You never know here.

I guess the only thing going for keeping him is that no one else wants him either so you can't really get anything for him, and may as well just ride it out and hope that he doesn't burn you when it hurts most like we all know is a very very real possibility.
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Michel had under 10 carries twice in his time in NE. I already spelled out that he's had almost 300 carries in his last 16 games . . . including the game you mentioned with only 9 carries when the team went pass crazy. Burkhead has played in 27 games in NE and had 10 carries 7 times. He's missed 18 games in that time. Michel is projecting toward 1000+ yards and 14 TD. 

Burkhead has been listed as questionable every week since he got hurt, so no telling when he will be back. But that's the thing with Burkhead. He hasn't been able to stay on the field, which is one of the reasons he won't be a full time, every time back for NE.

 
Can the Patriots' woeful ground game improve?

Excerpt:

Michel — 140 carries, 464 yards, 6 TDs and a 3.3 average — gets most of the focus for being the weakest link when fans and the media start laying blame. The expert — and I’d call Fears that — said it’s misplaced. But added a caveat.

“I’m happy he’s still alive,” Fears joked about Michel, alluding to the fact he’s carried a big load so far. “I’m happy he’s doing a great job. I’m happy he’s still pretty healthy. He’s playing well in my mind. He’s doing a lot of good things and like everybody, he’s got his moments where he makes mistakes too. He’s got to correct those mistakes. Be a little more consistent in some of the things he’s doing and I think we’ll be more productive overall. I think he tried to run hard this weekend. The good news for us is that Josh is continuing to call on the run game and giving us a chance and that’s keeping it balanced. We want to be more productive, but at least we’re balanced.”

Fears definitely didn’t absolve Michel.

“We gotta stop going backwards,” he said. “And that’s with Sony and some of his decisions. He can’t take a chance and say, ‘I’m gonna bounce this thing. Go East and West all day.’ He’s gotta friggin' get downhill. Nothing there, get downhill.”
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hoping his workload results in better things going forward.
 

Traded for Michele in both redraft & dynasty last week.

In redraft I gave up Marquis Brown, since I have 4 elite WRs so he wouldn’t see my lineup. 

Dynasty he was a throw in to balance out acquiring Mike Evans (for Kamara & a 2021 3rd)

I suspect he’ll have some big games down the stretch when weather is a factor. Of course his results in the rain last weekend were a little less than stellar, but the Pats also didn’t have a ton of short yardage plays. 
 

fingers crossed. 

 
I was saying Michel is going to be a beast before it was cool to say it.LOL.back in august. his work is going to increase. probably dramatically . this team, even with Sanu, looks 'off' with the WR's, they're going to focus on the run game.they have been for the past few weeks. Burkhead is one sneeze away from IR he's a non-factor going forward.

I'm trying to trade for Michel anywhere i can. they're going to try to run the ball control offense , time of possession ball hogging scenario against Baltimore.they can't let jackson run wild on them and wear down that defense. have to keep the Ravens offense off the field.

so they'll run run run, and run on 4th down again.

 
Disappointing that they’re not integrating him more in the pass offense like they indicated in pre-season. That would help balance his lackluster ground production.

Of course, he’s not doing himself any favors by dropping passes.

 
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FGITLOTR said:
Harris will be a league winner come the fantasy playoffs...Michel and Burkhead have lengthy  injury history’s and I can’t see them holding up the second half of the year 
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Or, Michel and Burkhead get hurt, Harris looks like a league winner one week, then gets 2 carries the following week, and we're right back where we usually are with NE RBs.

 
FGITLOTR said:
Harris will be a league winner come the fantasy playoffs...Michel and Burkhead have lengthy  injury history’s and I can’t see them holding up the second half of the year 
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Which of Harris’ five career snaps led you to a FANTASY LEAGUE WINNER conclusion?

IMO, this is not a year to buy in on NE running backs. Not enough blocking = limited production. As I outlined earlier, over the last 16 games played, Michel has had a smidge under 300 touches. Sounds to me like he has been able to stay on the field even if his numbers haven’t been that great. 

Harris basically is the 5th option behind Michel, Burkhead, White, and Bolden. I would be really surprised if Harris took on any meaningful role against tougher competition heading down the stretch. I suppose if every other RB got dinged he would have to see a lot of time. But I would not expect that to happen. 

 
Sony's lack of receptions hurts.  He is the 22nd highest scoring running back in PPR despite being on pace for 280 carries and 12 touchdowns.  Running backs who don't get receptions are fool's gold.  And he is uber risky.  He has a bone-on-bone condition in his knee that could sideline him at any time.  And he has been inefficient.  He is averaging 3.3 ypc.  Maybe the offensive line is to blame.  But Belichick must be curious if Harris could do better behind a subpar offensive line.  The Patriots have a week 10 bye.  28.7% chance Harris comes out of the bye as the starter.

 
Don Hutson said:
The Patriots have a week 10 bye.  28.7% chance Harris comes out of the bye as the starter.
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In his time in NE, BB has done this exactly zero times. He hasn't changed the hierarchy of RB's in-season and he hasn't changed horses in midstream. The only time he has made changes has been due to injury. All the talk about trying to solve the mystery of the NE backfield is essentially a myth and urban legend. They have a first and second down workhorse back (this year Michel), a backup that gets a series or two or gets used situationally (Burkhead), and a pass catching specialist (White). They usually have a depth guy or special teamer (this year Bolden). Harris basically has been the puzzle piece that doesn't seem to fit, so I would guess is being groomed for the future. If I had to guess, he will take over the Burkhead role next year.

People will point to one game wonder Jonas Gray as an example 5 years ago, but Stevan Ridley got hurt, Gray filled in for a game while NE explored available options, and then they brought back LaGarrette Blount. Other than that one instance, I don't remember radical changes in roles or touches. The exception being that if a back had a game with fumblitis he would get benched for the rest of the game.

Over the years . . .
Lead Back: Antowain Smith, Corey Dillon, Laurence Maroney, BJGE, Ridley, Blount, Lewis, Michel
Receiving / 3rd Down Back: Kevin Faulk, Danny Woodhead, Shane Vereen, James White
Guys as backups: Marc Edwards, Lamont Jordan, Sammy Morris, Fred Taylor, Mike Gillislee, Burkhead

There was a couple of years where they couldn't keep a lead back healthy, but I don't recall times when a back got tons of touches one week and none the next week OTHER THAN weeks they had a game plan to only pass the football and a RB was phased out of that week. But that rarely happens. More importantly, I can't remember when the RB's all rotated their workload and usage from week to week.

If people get unhappy that NE hasn't had a 3 down, workhorse, pass catching back, so be it. But that hasn't been the direction they've gone.

 
Anarchy99 said:
In his time in NE, BB has done this exactly zero times. He hasn't changed the hierarchy of RB's in-season and he hasn't changed horses in midstream. The only time he has made changes has been due to injury. All the talk about trying to solve the mystery of the NE backfield is essentially a myth and urban legend.
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2007      Played  Started

Maroney    13         6

Morris          6         2

Faulk           16        8

2008       Played  Started

Morris         13         7

Faulk           15         3

LawFirm       9          3

Mauroney     3          3

2009         Played  Started

Mauroney    15         5

Morris          12         5

Taylor             6         1

Faulk             15        7

2010          Played  Started

LawFirm        16       11

Woodhead     14        3

Faulk                 2        2

2011            Played  Started

Lawfirm          16        6

Ridley              16        2

Woodhead      15        4

Faulk                 7         3

2012            Played  Started

Ridley              16       12

Woodhead      16        2

Vereen             13        1

2013             Played  Started

Ridley               14        6

Blount               16        7

Bolden              12        2

Vereen                8        1

2014              Played  Started

Vereen              16        6

Ridley                  6        5

Gray                     8        3

Blount                  5        1

Bolden               16        2

2015                Played  Started

Blount                12        6

Bolden               15        2

Lewis                   7        6

White                 14        1

Jackson              2        1

2016                Played  Started

Blount                16        8

Lewis                   7        5

White                  16       4

2017                Played  Started

Lewis                  16       8

Gillislee                9        2

Burkhead            10       3

White                   14       4

2018                 Played  Started

Michel                 13        8

White                   16        3

Burkhead              8         4

 
Don Hutson said:
2007      Played  Started

Maroney    13         6

Morris          6         2

Faulk           16        8

2008       Played  Started

Morris         13         7

Faulk           15         3

LawFirm       9          3

Mauroney     3          3

2009         Played  Started

Mauroney    15         5

Morris          12         5

Taylor             6         1

Faulk             15        7

2010          Played  Started

LawFirm        16       11

Woodhead     14        3

Faulk                 2        2

2011            Played  Started

Lawfirm          16        6

Ridley              16        2

Woodhead      15        4

Faulk                 7         3

2012            Played  Started

Ridley              16       12

Woodhead      16        2

Vereen             13        1

2013             Played  Started

Ridley               14        6

Blount               16        7

Bolden              12        2

Vereen                8        1

2014              Played  Started

Vereen              16        6

Ridley                  6        5

Gray                     8        3

Blount                  5        1

Bolden               16        2

2015                Played  Started

Blount                12        6

Bolden               15        2

Lewis                   7        6

White                 14        1

Jackson              2        1

2016                Played  Started

Blount                16        8

Lewis                   7        5

White                  16       4

2017                Played  Started

Lewis                  16       8

Gillislee                9        2

Burkhead            10       3

White                   14       4

2018                 Played  Started

Michel                 13        8

White                   16        3

Burkhead              8         4
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What is this supposed to show, exactly? The actual touches each year tells a much clearer story. So they put a guy in based on field position for the first play of the game and he ended up with 2 carries and no targets in the game. Are we supposed to be concerned that player is taking the starting job and running with it?

 
Anarchy99 said:
Are we supposed to be concerned that player is taking the starting job and running with it?
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Sony isn't running with it.  He is underachieving.  Belichick changes things up when something isn't working.  He has actually given Sony a long time to prove himself this year.  Sony has had 1 game out of 8 where he has averaged 4 yards per carry.  Belichick isn't going to accept that all year.

 
Don Hutson said:
Sony isn't running with it.  He is underachieving.  Belichick changes things up when something isn't working.  He has actually given Sony a long time to prove himself this year.  Sony has had 1 game out of 8 where he has averaged 4 yards per carry.  Belichick isn't going to accept that all year.
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Anarchy99 said:
Not apples to apples. Last year healthy OL + healthy FB + Gronk and Allen blowing people off the line. This year banged up OL, no FB's, no blocking TE's, and Michel is stuck in neutral. BB knows this. Also noteworthy is BB mentioned this on his own and wasn't asked about it. He does radio interviews all the time and has way more to say than the laughable press conferences.
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Sony led them to a Super Bowl win last year.  Sure Sony hasn't looked amazing, but he is getting the job done with a hobbled/crap O-line and underachieving TE blocking, and they are undefeated.  Unless Sony gets injured,  I would bet good money that Sony keeps getting 15+ carries every game.

 
ahartig said:
Sony led them to a Super Bowl win last year.  Sure Sony hasn't looked amazing, but he is getting the job done with a hobbled/crap O-line and underachieving TE blocking, and they are undefeated.  Unless Sony gets injured,  I would bet good money that Sony keeps getting 15+ carries every game.
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I'm not denying that Sony could keep the job.  I'm just saying that the possibility exists that he could lose it.  To think that there is no chance that Belichick could move on from an ineffective player is shortsighted.

 
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Don Hutson said:
Sony isn't running with it.  He is underachieving.  Belichick changes things up when something isn't working.  He has actually given Sony a long time to prove himself this year.  Sony has had 1 game out of 8 where he has averaged 4 yards per carry.  Belichick isn't going to accept that all year.
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They've played half the season already. Michel has 140 carries. Burkhead is next with 27. Sure, BB likely isn't thrilled with his ypc average. But they don't have a ton of options. Burkhead is always hurt and hasn't ever been a heavy usage back in either CIN or NE. He's had a 4.3 ypc this year but has missed more games than he's played in.

White is great as a receiving target but hasn't been any better at running the football than Michel has. As you said, Michel has a 3.3 ypc. White, in passing situations, with guys playing off the line, has had a 2.8 ypc. In his one drive in garbage time, Harris had a 3.0 ypc. Bolden has only had a 3.6 ypc and has  been used in gadget formations or to surprise opponents. 

Harris couldn't even get on the game day roster with Burkhead missing almost a month. To me, that tells me he isn't ready, is having trouble picking things up, or is not so good at blitz pickup and they are fearful Brady will get destroyed if he misses a block. If Harris were up to speed and killing it in practice, we would have seen him getting much more of a tryout and earning more playing time.

That being said, Michel can do better and it's not just poor blocking. That came out some this week. NE was said to be in on trying to acquire Jordan Howard from PHI (not sure if there was truth to that but that's what I heard). The NE RB coach mentioned that multiple times this year Michel danced behind the line, went East or West instead of North and South, and tried to cut things to the outside on plays designed to go up the middle. It was mentioned that they would rather he hit a tiny hole aggressively and try to drive a defender backwards and take the 2-3 yards if it's there. Instead, he has been sometimes been indecisive, on occasion has picking the wrong opening to try to get through, or gone off script and tried to run away from the blocking scheme. That sort of stuff will get him in trouble more than his numbers being underwhelming.

IMO, bottom line, this is not a great year for NE running the football for multiple reasons being discussed here for weeks. Michel has been mediocre, but so has everyone else. They will probably revisit things in the off season, but for now they have limitations and limited blocking resources available. Put another way, don't expect a transition to a ground and pound offense at the end of the year or in the playoffs like they pivoted to last year. They don't have the horses to run with to ram the ball down another team's throat. Best case, they get the running game closer to league average instead of the 30th spot they have nailed down right now (based on ypc).

 
Anarchy99 said:
In his time in NE, BB has done this exactly zero times. He hasn't changed the hierarchy of RB's in-season and he hasn't changed horses in midstream. The only time he has made changes has been due to injury.
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How about we start with 2017?  Mike Gillislee was the clear cut early down back to start the season.  He had double digit carries in 7 of the first 8 games.  Through the first 4 games of 2017, Gillislee had 57 carries.  Next highest was James White with 18 carries.  Gillislee was averaging 3.6 ypc.  He was a healthy scratch for 7 of their last 8 games.  What happened?

 
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Don Hutson said:
How about we start with 2017?  Mike Gillislee was the clear cut early down back to start the season.  He had double digit carries in 7 of the first 8 games.  Through the first 4 games of 2017, Gillislee had 57 carries.  Next highest was James White with 18 carries.  Gillislee was averaging 3.6 ypc.  He was a healthy scratch for 7 of their last 8 games.  What happened?
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That one is closer as an example. 2015 and 2016 was harder to evaluate as Dion Lewis has earned a steady workload but struggled to stay on the field with injury and surgery issues in his time in NE. Blount has a huge season out of necessity in 2016 as Lewis was hurt again.

Lewis missed half of the 2016 season and then came back and started getting more touches. But  I remember there was talk that Lewis got hurt in the SB and was seen walking gingerly off the field. Blount left after getting a huge workload in 2016, leaving the RB situation up in the air. 

NE brought in Gillislee and Burkhead to go along with Lewis and White. Gillislee did see his role and workload reduced after seeing the ball more early on, but he wasn’t a returning, incumbent starter like Michel.

I’m not sure what the plan was for Gillislee and the RBs, as it seemed like he was going to be a short yardage back when they signed him. Did Lewis get healthier and take on a bigger role like he had earlier?

Gillisee did end up being a healthy scratch later in the season, which essentially is the situation Harris is in now. If Harris was going to take over, I am not sure being inactive on game day would be the way to get him up to speed to taking over as the primary ball carrier. 

 
Don Hutson said:
Sony isn't running with it.  He is underachieving.  Belichick changes things up when something isn't working.  He has actually given Sony a long time to prove himself this year.  Sony has had 1 game out of 8 where he has averaged 4 yards per carry.  Belichick isn't going to accept that all year.
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Bill, a 6 times SB champion of a HC in the NFL and he disagrees with you according to the results. He has ran Sony as his hammer, and what hasnt worked?

Are they not SB champs? Are they not currently undefeated? But he is gonna stop running Sony why? Because Sony had one game of 8 where he avg 4 ypc? 

I'll take the tells of the HC running the team over some guy just saying what Bill will and wont accept. 

 
Interestingly, PFF doesn't blame the Patriots' offensive line for their inability to run the ball.  I read on another ff message board that Sony has the worst PFF elusive rating of any running back this season.  I can't confirm it because I no longer subscribe to PFF.  Here is the bit about the offensive line:

https://patriotswire.usatoday.com/2019/10/30/pff-patriots-offensive-line-ranked-in-top-10-after-eight-weeks/

Pro Football Focus doesn’t think so negatively of the offensive line, and they ranked them as the No. 9 unit in the NFL through eight weeks.

The Patriots are one of 11 NFL teams with four starting offensive linemen ranked inside the top-60 in run-blocking grade through Week 8. Ted Karras and Joe Thuney have both starred along the Pats’ offensive line, earning strong run-blocking grades on the interior. Thuney is the team’s highest-graded offensive linemen with his 73.6 overall grade, 82.8 pass-blocking grade and 64.6 pass-blocking grade.
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He is averaging 17.5 carries per game and is about as guaranteed of TD opportunities as anyone in the league.  On a team that will continue to be playing for a bye.  That has a generational defense giving them good field position.  Wanting to protect the best QB in the league by running more.  Heading into the cold weather part of the season.

Sorry, but what part of his situation are people worried about?  This is ideal RB territory.  He is not flashy but they are winning with him, he doesn't cough it up, etc.  I don't think anyone drafted him expecting 150/2 every week.  

 
unckeyherb said:
He is averaging 17.5 carries per game and is about as guaranteed of TD opportunities as anyone in the league.  On a team that will continue to be playing for a bye.  That has a generational defense giving them good field position.  Wanting to protect the best QB in the league by running more.  Heading into the cold weather part of the season.

Sorry, but what part of his situation are people worried about?  This is ideal RB territory.  He is not flashy but they are winning with him, he doesn't cough it up, etc.  I don't think anyone drafted him expecting 150/2 every week.  
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Exactly why I dealt for him. Well summarized. 

3 TD game “Sony is amazing!”

0 TD game w/79 yards, “Sony sucks!”

the truth is somewhere in the middle. White hurts him in the receiving game (but not as much as Burkhead, since when Rex is out Sony gets some catches) but at the stripe or inside 5 yards, it’s more often Sony than not.

Without Gronk, the Pats seem much less inclined to throw inside 5 yards. The 3 TD game the Pats had 2 drives where they ran 3x inside the 5.  When it happened the 1st time I told @yoman that I’d never seen them do that before, then they did it again.

that seems to be a sign of things to come. 

sure, there will be down games where the Pats don’t have any opportunities like that. But that’s true for any player.

Sony seems to lack breakaway speed, which also hurts him a bit - but the volume is terrific even if the production is not.

Verdict: he’s a rock solid RB2 ROS. This week against BAL may not be pretty. But then again ya never know when the pats will have goal to go situations.  With the # of touches Sony’s floor isn’t awful, and with RZ carries his ceiling is the occasional RB1 performance.

like @unckeyherb said, I don’t see the need for concern. 

 
rickyg said:
Are people really complaining about a 3 td night??
Click to expand...


shadyridr said:
Haha so bad
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rockaction said:
Michel. Unmovable. Untouchable.

No hands right now. 
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The Dude said:
I don't think anyone is complaining about his points - they are talking about how bad he looks as a runner.  What I saw out of him in short yardage was awful.
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iamkoza said:
He looks so horrendous. His only quality appears to be he doesn't fumble often. Frequently brought down by arm tackles, no lateral ability, no burst. Falls down on first contact... Yet the best team in the league is content to give him 20 carries a game
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Nucker101 said:
Either he's playing injured or he just sucks. If he's not that banged up and this is who he is, I have a feeling that his dynasty value will be in shambles next year.
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pbandy1 said:
I thought he looked way better last year, what the hell happened? Am I missing something? 
Click to expand...


rockaction said:
No, he looked way better last year.

They were indeed stacking the box every time he ran tonight. His drop really hurt. That was a walk in touchdown that would keep the defense from peeling back their ears and run blitzing. 
Click to expand...


wgoldsph said:
I think they're complaining about what his 2.2 ypc means for the rest of the season.  BB pays attention to that kind of thing.
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@Hot Sauce Guy

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
You are aware, inconceivable as it may sound, that there’s a whole world outside of FBG, right?

right? 

I mean, like, an entire world of people who don’t subscribe or even (gasp!) participate on the FBG discussion forums?

Hmm...I guess not.  :shrug:
Click to expand...
Do you interact with this entire world of people in real life the way you do here?

 
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It seems to me that the primary disconnect here can be identified by separating FBG-ers into two groups:

Group A:  draft day, “omg Sony’s looked so good in preseason! He’s my 4.0x RB1, steal of the draft!”...8 weeks later, “i has disappoint”

Group B: sharks, “Sony owners are disappointed in his solid RB2 production despite ~20 carries a game + GL. I wonder how low I can go. Hey, would you take Marquis Brown + Ronald Jones for him?” 

:shark: .

 
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