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RB Sony Michel (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
whole-show
Footballguy
Out week 11
The Frankman
Footballguy
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
I would count Reiss in the minority with regard to Michel being a potential roster cut. He looked and played like a different back last year (5.7 ypc). NE didn't opt for his 5th year extension, but that's mostly because they don't want to invest $4.5 million in Michel. His market is expected to be soft and the Pats could likely re-sign him for less than that. But I have not seen anyone suggest that Michel's roster spot is in jeopardy (unless he secretly has an undisclosed injury that hasn't been making the rounds).
I think you are correct he won't be cut but Mike Lombardi's latest podcast, which aired before the article by Reiss, he said that Michel was someone he felt they would try and trade.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The poster boy for being traded is Harry . . . and he is still on the roster. NE would eat $1.2M against the cap to save $1.8M in cap space by moving Michel. Realistically, what could they get for him . . . a 6th round pick if they are lucky?
IMO, Michel offers enough to keep him on the roster and split some of the RB workload compared to the amount they would have to spend to roster a different back for depth (meaning eating the $1.2M cap charge and then needing another RB for depth would get them close to what they are already giving Michel).
He's done what they have asked of him and has turned into an excellent blocker / blitz neutralizer. IMO, he sticks with NE and could also be back next season as well.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I go to bed every night hoping they cut him do I can mercifully drop him from my roster.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Count me among those that agree with Anarchy99 and Dr. Octopus. It makes little sense to cut or trade him unless they have too many running backs to carry. I'm not sure what the case is regarding that, so there's potential, but it doesn't seem to make much economic sense in cutting him now.
zamboni
Footballguy
I did that two years ago.I go to bed every night hoping they cut him do I can mercifully drop him from my roster.
He just never morphed into the guy we - or probably the the Pats - expected after being drafted in the 1st and having a solid rookie year.
I was just serving as a messenger passing on that someone else well connected was saying they thought he could be headed out one way or another.
I would however add to your last paragraph that the Lions just cut Kerryon, who was drafted around same range as Michel, who the past coaching staff raved about as a person, who they also said did everything they could and the Lions RB coach from last year said was the best pass protector he had ever worked with or seen(can't recall exactly). Obvious differences in the two is that Kerryon looked totally shot last year and Michel ran well when called upon but my point is being valued for doing what coaches wanted and being awesome in pass pro was not enough for Kerryon.
rockaction
Footballguy
I get your point about the messenger and relaying information, and thanks for doing that, but the keywords in your later thought say it all: "...past coaching staff" and "coach from last year."
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I got him as a toss-in to balance a trade. I just haven’t had the need to drop him as we have big rosters. Was kinda hoping the productive run he had last year would carry over so I could move him. That seems like more of a long shot every passing second.zamboni said:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
All solid points, & I agree. I doubt he goes anywhere, and when called upon in times of need he’s delivered.Anarchy99 said:
this seems to be one of those cases where the fan-base & FF managers scorned hate a player far more than the organization that employs him.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The problem with owning a piece of the NE backfield is the design and framework really isn't such to produce a high scoring fantasy asset. There have been times when guys have had productive stretches, but that usually has stemmed from injuries to other backs. Michel did well enough without Harris. Harris did well with Michel out. Blount had a big season when the other options went down. But they usually have an early down back, a back up, a third down back, and a Swiss Army knife guy that does a little of everything. Then you add in players like Taylor or Bolden getting table scraps. Add in that Cam is more running back than quarterback at this point and there isn't a lot of incentive to roster Pats players. In fact, I have been looking at some early projections for NE and some places don't seem to think the Pats will produce a single fantasy starter at any position this year.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
The problem with owning a piece of the NE backfield is that you own a piece of the NE backfield.
Just
Say
No
Apple Juice
Footballguy
I'm going to keep believing Harris finishes in the top 20 this year just because I want him to.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Nah. The issue is many people draft NE backs expecting to use them and get something out of them. They are ok for depth purposes and maybe you get lucky and one of the other NE backs gets hurt and you have an option for a bye week fill-in (or injury short term injury replacement for your fantasy squad).
Over the years, people want to buy in AFTER someone did something . . . and the chances for a repeat are slim. Dillon, Ridley, BJGE, Woodhead, Blount, White, and to a lesser extent Michel didn't sustain their success in Year X+1. So many people saw what Michel did in that one post season . . . and then whined when they didn't use him the same the next year.
In general, I tend to agree with you and I generally wouldn't look to roster a NE RB. But if they fall far enough it makes some sense to grab one (again, hoping that you don't ever need to play him).
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I still think Michel's spot is safe and secure. I have seen some beat guys list him as a semi-lock (meaning if he looked bad / injured and Stevenson came in and lit things up in camp then there would have to be more thought involved in keeping Michel).
But historically, most rookie running backs barely saw the field in the BB era (although Michel, Maroney, and Redmond did). All the Day 2 and Day 3 picks saw limited action . . .
Player, Year, Carries, Receptions:
Sony Michael (2018) 209 + 7 = 216
Laurence Maroney (2006) 175 + 22 = 197
JR Redmond (2000) 125 + 20 = 145
Stevan Ridley (2011) 87 + 3 = 90
BJGE (2008) 74 + 3 = 77
JJ Taylor (2000) 23 + 1 = 24
Cedrick Cobbs (2004) 22 + 0 = 22
Patrick Pass (2000) 18 + 4 = 22
Shane Vereen (2011) 15 + 0 = 15
James White (2014) 9 + 5 = 14
DJ Foster (2016) 7 + 1 = 8
Damien Harris (2019) 4 + 0 = 4
Justise Hairston (2007) DNP
Antwoine Womack (2002) DNP
I suppose anything is possible, but Michel has been outstanding in blitz pickup and averaged 5.7 yards per carry and 16.3 yards per reception last year. I get that BB will play who he thinks will help him win, but Michel last year was a bright spot in a bleak year. PFF gave him a 80.9 grade last year . . . his best score since he joined NE and higher than many other backs in the league with bigger workloads.
But historically, most rookie running backs barely saw the field in the BB era (although Michel, Maroney, and Redmond did). All the Day 2 and Day 3 picks saw limited action . . .
Player, Year, Carries, Receptions:
Sony Michael (2018) 209 + 7 = 216
Laurence Maroney (2006) 175 + 22 = 197
JR Redmond (2000) 125 + 20 = 145
Stevan Ridley (2011) 87 + 3 = 90
BJGE (2008) 74 + 3 = 77
JJ Taylor (2000) 23 + 1 = 24
Cedrick Cobbs (2004) 22 + 0 = 22
Patrick Pass (2000) 18 + 4 = 22
Shane Vereen (2011) 15 + 0 = 15
James White (2014) 9 + 5 = 14
DJ Foster (2016) 7 + 1 = 8
Damien Harris (2019) 4 + 0 = 4
Justise Hairston (2007) DNP
Antwoine Womack (2002) DNP
I suppose anything is possible, but Michel has been outstanding in blitz pickup and averaged 5.7 yards per carry and 16.3 yards per reception last year. I get that BB will play who he thinks will help him win, but Michel last year was a bright spot in a bleak year. PFF gave him a 80.9 grade last year . . . his best score since he joined NE and higher than many other backs in the league with bigger workloads.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Yeah, I get that . . . but his YPC was more than double what he produced in his first two seasons. The point being, when he was on the field, Michel was very productive. When he ran or caught the ball last year, he was very productive. He missed time due to injury and COVID (which maybe we can put on him). But when he played, he played very well. IIRC, Michel missed qualifying to rank in the YPC leaders by 1 rushing attempt. The only RB that would have had a higher YPC last year was Dobbins.
I get it that over the course of his career Michel hasn't been the back that people were expecting . . . but the time for NE to go in a completely different direction was two seasons ago, probably not now. I would guess he plays a role and fills in if Harris gets hurt. As we all know, being in a time share if Cam is playing is nothing to write home about for fantasy purposes. But IMO he would become a fantasy consideration if Jones took over and Harris was out.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
In two deep dynasty leagues, I have Rhamondre and Michel, and kind of like having this combo for cheap this year.
My attitude about Harris is that his best trait thus far is that he's not Michel, who has disappointed. But I feel like Harris hasn't proven much. He should still be the first guy taken, I don't dispute that.
I'm ready to believe that none of these backs are a long term asset, but I am thinking about the Pats O-line, and the addition of two TEs. Pats might be building a dominant running game, that line is made for it, and with Cam or Mac, they aren't trying to get in shootouts.
I could see Harris AND Michel showing value this year, to varying degrees.
My attitude about Harris is that his best trait thus far is that he's not Michel, who has disappointed. But I feel like Harris hasn't proven much. He should still be the first guy taken, I don't dispute that.
I'm ready to believe that none of these backs are a long term asset, but I am thinking about the Pats O-line, and the addition of two TEs. Pats might be building a dominant running game, that line is made for it, and with Cam or Mac, they aren't trying to get in shootouts.
I could see Harris AND Michel showing value this year, to varying degrees.
zamboni
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Harris is getting over hyped and Michel is being undervalued for this year. The two are literally splitting the starter's reps in camp evenly. They are even throwing to Michel way more than in the past. All the talk that Harris was going to be the clear #1 and get a huge workload does not seem to be anything other than media talking heads wishing that to be the case.
Both guys were very effective and efficient last year and PFF graded both of them in the Top 10 RBs last season. I never bought in to the narrative that Michel was on the roster bubble and might not make the team. The reports on Stevenson have not been great. The NE RB coach mentioned he had a long way to go, a lot to learn, and hinted that he might spend most of the season on the sidelines learning.
All the other stuff still holds true . . . Cam vultures carries and TD chances, now they have legit red zone receiving threats, and historically they don't throw to their early down backs. But overall Michel should be at least a flex or bye week fill in this year for fantasy purposes. Basically, he and Harris likely devalue the other and both are likely fantasy RB3's.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
This is the first time I can recall Fears (RB coach) throwing someone in his room under the bus. He's usually Joe Positive player advocate. I think its possible they are trying to groom him to be something that Michel and Harris never will be, albeit not W1 2021.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I will not allow myself to be optimistic about Sony Michel. I can hope that he has weekly value so that I can trade him as soon as possible
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
2 pretty good runs by Michel so far.
No game thread?
No game thread?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Michel had some blocks and likely could have gotten the 1st down, possibly moore, but he uses too many shoulder fakes which slows him down and he ends up a yard shy of the line to gain.
He hits the ground after the play clearly frustrated with himself after this play.
He hits the ground after the play clearly frustrated with himself after this play.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Michel is undervalued, Harris overvalued, as others have said. cancel each other out. NE doesn't have stars at crucial positions to keep defenses honest and to keep them off the LOS, both of these QBs will see 8-man fronts, and plenty of blitzes. you can cover NE wr's with high school DBs I just don't see how they're going to be effective at running the ball without decent WRs and TEs occupying safeties, LBs, DBs.
Jonnu Smith? Henry? lol.laughable. Henry's already hurt! Smith did what, where?!
Jonnu Smith? Henry? lol.laughable. Henry's already hurt! Smith did what, where?!
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Oh ye of little faith. Smith was mostly an afterthought playing in TEN. He only averaged 42 targets a year. He could get 2.5 times that with regular use in NE. With no receivers and Cam last year, Michel added 5.7 ypc and Harris 5.0. And they added TEs that can block. The ground game will be fine. They have Agholor as a deeper threat and will play action people for bigger plays than these 5 yard dump offs. Overall, the offense will be significantly better with either QB this year.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Stinky bait. Smith, Henry, Agholor, Bourne, Meyers is easily enough receiving receiving talent to run a balanced offense. If you need a reference to see the viability of teams without an elite receiving talent, consider the past 25 years of professional football.
