How will the Pats win games this year? (1 Viewer)

Just a thread to talk about the pats and flesh out their position players.  With a rookie QB and a solid defense, do you think this team will air it out, or is this a "game manager" and run the ball behind that O-line type of team?

My feeling is we are too low on Harris based on how BB may try to win games this year.  Mac can definitely make some plays, but do we expect him to "Brady it out" and throw the ball 30+ times per game?

I'm not dialed in like I used to be, but have assumed since the acquisitions started in FA that the general goal was a stifling defense that would allow a rushing / balanced offensive approach to protect a weak QB (Cam) or a rookie QB.

I believe the analogy used in the team thread was "a glove" to protect the QB. They are not looking for shootouts, though Mac looks like he could handle that, as needed (though he'll take a lot of sacks, as most rookies do) this season.

Lots of handoffs to Harris and Stevenson. Focus on passes to the TE and some mid range shots. Rely on the Defense to return to top 5 form. 

Scooby1974 said:

Lots of handoffs to Harris and Stevenson. Focus on passes to the TE and some mid range shots. Rely on the Defense to return to top 5 form. 

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I think this is right. Bludgeon these teams that have built their Ds for the modern spread offense movement with nickel as base formation. Pats seem likely to play a lot of 12 personnel with Henry working the middle and intermediate, Jonnu playing a semi gadget role, the RBs playing the flats, Agholor taking the top off. I would imagine they want to cram it down the opposition’s throat with the running game and that OL, opening up play action for Mac. 

JFS171 said:

I think this is right. Bludgeon these teams that have built their Ds for the modern spread offense movement with nickel as base formation. Pats seem likely to play a lot of 12 personnel with Henry working the middle and intermediate, Jonnu playing a semi gadget role, the RBs playing the flats, Agholor taking the top off. I would imagine they want to cram it down the opposition’s throat with the running game and that OL, opening up play action for Mac. 

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Exactly this. If Henry is healthy, expect to see a lot of 12 personnel.

rockaction said:

Exactly this. If Henry is healthy, expect to see a lot of 12 personnel.

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With Mac running the show, I’m actually very intrigued by Henry who’s almost always been productive when healthy. Everyone assumes Jonnu and Henry just cannibalize one another, but I’m not so sure. I don’t think there’s an alpha pass catcher really, and could see with 12 personnel the TEs getting more volume than anticipated. As such, I think Henry is a nice sleeper as Jonnu is a far superior blocker, and has far more experience moving around in an h-back like deployment. 

20.

The Patriots will win games with Mac 'n Cheese the same way the Patriots have won games in the past under Bill Belichick...  by cheating.  

JK.  I'm a Patriots fan.  

Seriously, I expect to see a pretty balanced offense.  I hope to see Rhemondre Stevenson look like Marshall Faulk circa 1999.  In fact, I expect to see Stevenson be in the discussion for OROY along with Mac 'n Cheese

Cross posting from the Stevenson thread:

I’d encourage any Rhamondre owner to listen to the first 10 minutes of @Matt Waldman’s latest RSP podcast with Mark Schofield. They touch on what the offense will look like overall, and what that means for the RBs. Schofield talked about Rhamondre splitting out to the slot in preseason, running routes, turning 2-5 yard dump offs into 8-10 yard plays. Schofield says he expects to see some 22 personnel sets with Rhamondre and Harris or Rhamondre and White in the backfield. If the D goes nickel, they’ll jam it down their throats. If the D bulks up, they spread the formation with Henry, White, Rhamondre, and a WR. Rhamondre or White vs a linebacker is easy money. 

JFS171 said:

Cross posting from the Stevenson thread:

I’d encourage any Rhamondre owner to listen to the first 10 minutes of @Matt Waldman’s latest RSP podcast with Mark Schofield. They touch on what the offense will look like overall, and what that means for the RBs. Schofield talked about Rhamondre splitting out to the slot in preseason, running routes, turning 2-5 yard dump offs into 8-10 yard plays. Schofield says he expects to see some 22 personnel sets with Rhamondre and Harris or Rhamondre and White in the backfield. If the D goes nickel, they’ll jam it down their throats. If the D bulks up, they spread the formation with Henry, White, Rhamondre, and a WR. Rhamondre or White vs a linebacker is easy money. 

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I follow the Patriots religiously and I do not get the sense that Stevenson will play a big role in NE this year. I doubt he will get enough touches to become fantasy relevant, nor do I think will he be used enough as a receiver to boost his numbers. The best way to describe it is that NE has evolved over the years to guys having set roles. Normally there's a two down big back thumper (Harris), a secondary guy that will spell the main guy (which was Michel and will likely now be Stevenson), a Swiss army knife that might get a series or two to his own each game (previously Burkhead but now likely Taylor), and a 3rd down /  receiving back (White).

I know people have been quick to point out that all of Cam's carries and goal line TD are there for the taking, but I guarantee that Mac Jones will be throwing way more than 8 TD passes this year. IMO, Cam's rushing attempts will turn into passing attempts, and a bunch of those those goal line TD runs will turn into receiving TD for the NE TE's. NE had only 1 TD reception last year by a TE. That number should be in the double digits this year.

NE is planning on Harris being the guy on the field the most. So the things being suggested might happen . . . but with Harris on the field, not Stevenson. The Pats have had RBs line up as receivers, in the slot, and in motion for years, but they hardly ever use them as receivers. Just look at the receiving totals for the running RBs compared to the receiving RBs.

One thing that will likely happen is teams will probably blitz Jones to get him rattled, which will make whichever RB in the game the last line of defense to keep Jones upright. One of the things mentioned by the coaching staff is that Stevenson has a lot to learn about blitz pickup, and that alone could limit his snap count.

Stevenson would likely get more touches if injuries popped up. Maybe they will give him more work later in the season. But I still think BB will give him a limited role as a rookie (which he has done for almost every rookie RB in recent memory except for Michel).

Stevenson might get a decent share of goal line work, but I do not expect him to be the exclusive RB deep in enemy territory. I can easily see NE running all sorts of formations and personnel packages near the goal line, so any of the backs could be in the game at that point (or they could spread the defense out and pass instead).

I think they will be a lot like the early Brady years...a very strong D will be the foundation and as long as the Gilmore situation doesn't backfire all signs point to this D being legit...on offense they will keep you guessing...some weeks will be ground and pound (their O line should be excellent) and other weeks they will air it out more than is expected...one of the reasons I felt Jones was the perfect QB for the Pats is his ability to assimilate a game-plan and change how the offense is played week-to-week...when I look at this offense as currently constructed I see Agholor and the health of the TE's being the two key factors...the TE health speaks for itself, Hunter Henry has to proof he can be relied on so they can take advantage of these two TE sets...as for Agholor if he can duplicate his big play ability from last year that would give this offense more breathing room as the running game should be excellent and they should be all set in the short-to-intermediate passing game with the TEs and Jakobi who I believe will break 1,000 yards this year...the Achilles heel of this offense is WR depth...with Meyers, Agholor and Bourne they are not a top-shelf unit to begin but if they get hit with injuries and/or Bourne and Agholor underachieve that will allow defenses to zero in on the passing game and the TEs far more than you would like...I'd really like to see another playable WR added as I have zero faith in Harry...an x-factor to this offense is JJ Taylor...if he can bring a big play element to the offense that defenses have to respect he can be the type of guy that will allow McDaniels to attack some matchups on certain weeks...overall I expect this offense to be drastically improved from last year but I do think they need the D to play at a high level because they are not currently built to get into shootouts and with KC, Buffalo and a few other potentially good offenses in the AFC it becomes that much more important.  

I don't fully agree with Anarchy on Stevenson...I do think he will get an opportunity to be a part of this offense...he has shown too much not to and I fully believe he was one of the reasons they moved on from Michel now instead of next year.

Boston said:

I don't fully agree with Anarchy on Stevenson...I do think he will get an opportunity to be a part of this offense...he has shown too much not to and I fully believe he was one of the reasons they moved on from Michel now instead of next year.

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I'm conflicted.  Bottom line for me is that I think he's a great lottery ticket because he "might" get serious red zone share, but if your roster needs solid bye week filler he's risky.

I certainly am not advocating counting on Stevenson, but I also think he pops off the screen when he gets opportunities. Harris hasn’t been the most durable guy, and even with durability, what if Stevenson is just better? That’s a totally plausible outcome to me - Harris is solid, Stevenson might be special. 

Most of my optimism for him is dynasty-based. But drafting him in the fourth after a suspension in college (while they had all the other guys in tow) seems to suggest the team likes him. Then they trade Michel. They’re flexing him into the slot in preseason. I think all these are positive signs. 

I’m not hating on Harris or hanging the drum for Stevenson in the 6th or something, but I’d rather have him on my bench than a lot of other options, personally. 

SeniorVBDStudent said:

I'm conflicted.  Bottom line for me is that I think he's a great lottery ticket because he "might" get serious red zone share, but if your roster needs solid bye week filler he's risky.

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I was talking more about real football…IMO he is not gonna get the redshirt treatment that others have received and I feel the current depth chart supports that…as far as fantasy I think he is a very nice add for Dynasty because he really did look like something potentially special in the preseason but it was the preseason and this is the Pats  backfield and that combo speaks for itself…that being said I think he is worthy of a roster spot in all formats as he is one Harris injury from probably getting a ton of work and I do think he will always have the potential to have a monster week…you just don’t know when it will be but if you are in week 12 and the RB injuries are piling up that has the chance to bail you out.

Boston said:

I was talking more about real football…IMO he is not gonna get the redshirt treatment that others have received and I feel the current depth chart supports that…as far as fantasy I think he is a very nice add for Dynasty because he really did look like something potentially special in the preseason but it was the preseason and this is the Pats  backfield and that combo speaks for itself…that being said I think he is worthy of a roster spot in all formats as he is one Harris injury from probably getting a ton of work and I do think he will always have the potential to have a monster week…you just don’t know when it will be but if you are in week 12 and the RB injuries are piling up that has the chance to bail you out.

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He'll get some of the touches that Michel would have gotten for sure.  And I wouldn't argue against a roster spot in all formats.  My only point is that there are wide error bars on projecting what he'll end up doing for additional reasons beyond probability of Harris injury.  I don't know how much of Michel's predicted workload that gets re-destributed to Harris, Taylor and White.  And I don't think you can look at RH as Burkhead or directly compare this year's RBBC with prior years' RBBCs.  It's a parable for the uncertainty inherent with NE backfields.

SeniorVBDStudent said:

He'll get some of the touches that Michel would have gotten for sure.  And I wouldn't argue against a roster spot in all formats.  My only point is that there are wide error bars on projecting what he'll end up doing for additional reasons beyond probability of Harris injury.  I don't know how much of Michel's predicted workload that gets re-destributed to Harris, Taylor and White.  And I don't think you can look at RH as Burkhead or directly compare this year's RBBC with prior years' RBBCs.  It's a parable for the uncertainty inherent with NE backfields.

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Agreed, I was trying to say that in my post…the one thing I do feel strongly about is he will not be redshirted and will have a role…same with JJT…if you can guess the actual workload of this backfield this year you can also win the lottery.

Scoring more than their opponent

Wrigley said:

Scoring more than their opponent

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Funny, they’ll lose games where they score fewer points than their opponent. 
 

TEs, RBs and defense.  They won’t be exciting but they’ll be on the fringe of the playoffs. 

Boston said:

I don't fully agree with Anarchy on Stevenson...I do think he will get an opportunity to be a part of this offense...he has shown too much not to and I fully believe he was one of the reasons they moved on from Michel now instead of next year.

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I'm not saying he won't have a role in the offense. But if everyone is healthy (which there certainly is no guarantee of), I don't think he will see the ball enough to be a regular weekly fantasy contributor. 

I agree that predicting what will happen this year with 1,001 changes to offensive personnel will be next to impossible. But if I had to guess, Stevenson might get 6-8 carries and 1-2 receiving targets a game if Harris is playing. Sure, he might see 10 carries and 2-3 targets in a game on occasion. But NE could also have game plans where they opt not to run much at all. Call it 9 carries and 1 reception a game. I would guess maybe he would see 100 carries and 15 receptions if he played every game. That's not a minor role, but that's not really regular fantasy starter numbers. Call it 40-50 yards of offense and a 35% chance of a TD. That's about 7.5-8.0 fantasy ppg in PPR leagues. That would probably put him in the RB 40-45 range. Nothing wrong with that as a rookie . . . probably worth a bench spot on a fantasy roster, and probably worthy of a bye week or injury fill in. Sure, he'd have more upside if Harris got hurt, but IMO he would see more carries but I think they would spread out what Harris was getting among the other guys as well.

-OZ- said:

Funny, they’ll lose games where they score fewer points than their opponent. 
 

TEs, RBs and defense.  They won’t be exciting but they’ll be on the fringe of the playoffs. 

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I don’t think playoffs are likely but 6 or 7 wins seems possible.  As folks mentioned, the Pats will probably be a boring team by focusing on the run and playing D.  

DocHolliday said:

I don’t think playoffs are likely but 6 or 7 wins seems possible.  As folks mentioned, the Pats will probably be a boring team by focusing on the run and playing D.  

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Just curious as to why you suggest they will only win 6 or 7 games? Compared to last year, their defense is absolutely stacked, they have one of the best OLs and running attacks in the league, and they have upgraded their receiving targets. Rookies are hard to predict at QB, but Jones has looked great at figuring out defenses, adjusting play calls, and his accuracy on passes has been insane. Most of the updated W/L predictions I have seen are 10 or 11 wins. With bad luck 9 wins, with good luck 12 wins. Based off of all of that, I don't see how they win fewer games than last season.

DocHolliday said:

I don’t think playoffs are likely but 6 or 7 wins seems possible.  As folks mentioned, the Pats will probably be a boring team by focusing on the run and playing D.  

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I predicted them to miss if cam started but mac should be just good enough to possibly make it as the last WC. 
 

I'm more interested in a topic about how they'll lose games.

Signed,

~Pats hater

  

Hot Sauce Guy said:

I'm more interested in a topic about how they'll lose games.

Signed,

~Pats hater

  

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They narrowly avoided the poor choice of keeping the incumbent around to start games and then attempt some weird sort of unprecedented QB platooning.

Oh wait....

SeniorVBDStudent said:

They narrowly avoided the poor choice of keeping the incumbent around to start games and then attempt some weird sort of unprecedented QB platooning.

Oh wait....

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This sounds oddly familiar. 

“I don’t want to change the world, I’m not looking for New England, just looking for another girl”

Wrigley said:

“I don’t want to change the world, I’m not looking for New England, just looking for another girl”

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Not many Billy Bragg toss-in's in these parts.

pats finished 7th worst against the rush last season, allowing over 131 rush yards/gm on average. they'r enot suddenly going to lose that tag, that they're a sieve defense that simply can't stop the run. even if the addition of new players helps, they need 31 fewer yards/gm avg just to get under 100 yards/gm. not happening. why? they have  a rookie QB, who, like every rookie QB since the before Roman Empire began, has struggled mightily for phases during their rookie campaigns. Mac the cheesy is no different. I think the NFL has figured out Joshy McD , they're no longer afraid of NE ( they were bullies with Brady for sure), now they're kind of like the mike tyson after buster douglass beat his butt. 

You're going to see slightly improved defensive play , but they're going to be on the field a lot more than they were with brady. so they get worn out. means they succumb to 4th quarter power rush offense who will flatten them. so at the end of the day, this pats team should be marginally better than last season. they're not going to score like last season. you're going to see 8-man fronts where they dare Jones to beat them. they have no outside threats, Nykeal is hurt. Mayers is a never has been bum, and they're sorely lacking a welker, amendola , edelman type which is what the cheesy mcdaniels offense is all about. opposing defense might give up the run to make NE burn the clock down. I see them as a bottom feeder scoring offense, a middle of the road defense. a lot of hype hyperbole smoke and mirrors and fantasy fans with rosey colored eyeglasses.

look at the schedule ..who are we certain they beat?

1. miami - loss. Dolphins have their number

2. Jets at NYJ - win

3 . Saints at home - loss

4. Bucs - blowout loss

5. Texans in hou - slim win

6. Cowboys at Pats- loss.boys win

7. Jets at pats- win

8. pats at chargers - loss

9. Pats at panthers - win

10. Browns at pats - no way you stop nick chubb and co. - loss

11. @ falcons - win

12. Titans at pats - big loss

13. pats at bill s- loss

14. Pats at colts - loss

15. bills at pats - loss

16.  jags at pats. -win

17 NE @ miami - blowout loss

I have them at 7-10. you wanna give them 2 more wins? ok. they're 9-8. not making the postseason. 

as hot sauce says, this dog won't hunt.

beware of drafting NE players. a team without brady is not a team. they proved that last season. dont forget the payback factor, or the run it up on BB like he did to use years ago payback factor. because, it's coming.  when mac throws a 3 int game whats BB going to do?! 

the answer is , pats are not going to score this season - just like last season.

Anarchy99 said:

I follow the Patriots religiously and I do not get the sense that Stevenson will play a big role in NE this year. I doubt he will get enough touches to become fantasy relevant, nor do I think will he be used enough as a receiver to boost his numbers. The best way to describe it is that NE has evolved over the years to guys having set roles. Normally there's a two down big back thumper (Harris), a secondary guy that will spell the main guy (which was Michel and will likely now be Stevenson), a Swiss army knife that might get a series or two to his own each game (previously Burkhead but now likely Taylor), and a 3rd down /  receiving back (White).

I know people have been quick to point out that all of Cam's carries and goal line TD are there for the taking, but I guarantee that Mac Jones will be throwing way more than 8 TD passes this year. IMO, Cam's rushing attempts will turn into passing attempts, and a bunch of those those goal line TD runs will turn into receiving TD for the NE TE's. NE had only 1 TD reception last year by a TE. That number should be in the double digits this year.

NE is planning on Harris being the guy on the field the most. So the things being suggested might happen . . . but with Harris on the field, not Stevenson. The Pats have had RBs line up as receivers, in the slot, and in motion for years, but they hardly ever use them as receivers. Just look at the receiving totals for the running RBs compared to the receiving RBs.

One thing that will likely happen is teams will probably blitz Jones to get him rattled, which will make whichever RB in the game the last line of defense to keep Jones upright. One of the things mentioned by the coaching staff is that Stevenson has a lot to learn about blitz pickup, and that alone could limit his snap count.

Stevenson would likely get more touches if injuries popped up. Maybe they will give him more work later in the season. But I still think BB will give him a limited role as a rookie (which he has done for almost every rookie RB in recent memory except for Michel).

Stevenson might get a decent share of goal line work, but I do not expect him to be the exclusive RB deep in enemy territory. I can easily see NE running all sorts of formations and personnel packages near the goal line, so any of the backs could be in the game at that point (or they could spread the defense out and pass instead).

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Thanks. This is helpful. 

My big picture answer to Gatorman's question is they'll try to go back to winning games the way they did with Brady.

With a controlled distributor at QB making good decisions guided by some of the best coaches and coordinators in the game. 

OBVIOUSLY, Mac Jones hasn't earned the right to fold Brady's socks yet. But I think the big picture style of a controlled, non mobile, smart decision QB is the goal. 

Solid run game with a good OL and a good defense. 

This won't be Gronkowski/Hernandez but having actual NFL TEs on the roster again is a nice perk. 

I'm optimistic on this team. 

Cowherd has them at 12-5… ahead of Miami and tied with Buffalo. https://youtu.be/ag5KG8jFrXg

As a fellow Pats fan.  I see them around 9-8 maybe 10-7 if the D hits its stride and the corners hold strong.  I see a grind it out run game along with a short to intermediate passing game.  Early in the season more running, slowly opening up the play book for Mac.  Use his accuracy to make the team flow.  I think they still lack WRs and they need the top 2 TE to stay healthy to succeed.  They will try and win with D.  

I see them at potentially 10-7 but with a good chance for 11-6...due to BB's coaching they won 7 games last year with a far inferior roster and awful QB play...this roster while still having some holes is much better than last year and while there will be rookie moments I expect the QB play to be dramatically better...I also feel that after some real bad years in the draft (the Harry pick is such a killer when you look at this roster) over the past two years they are finally adding some legit young talent in players like Mac, Stevenson, JJT (UDFA), Onwenu, Herron, Barmore, Perkins, Duggar, Uche and Josh Bailey...my guess is they make it into the playoffs as a team no one wants to play, win a game in the wildcard round than get knocked out...I could not have been more down on them last year but feel very optimistic in the direction they are currently heading...if they were to go 9-8 and miss the playoffs but Mac is the real deal and the youngster are legit I will still be more than OK with them...can't stress enough how much the switch from Cam to Mac has me energized for them.

Boston said:

can't stress enough how much the switch from Cam to Mac has me energized for them.

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I agree. I think it was the right move by a mile. 

I'm a dolphin fan and can't be convinced Miami sweeps NE this year.  I'd say the division is Pats lose both to the bills, Split with the Phins, and sweep the Jets.   IF the Phins sweep the pats, then they have a shot at the division.  If the Pats split with the bills, the same hold true, and if the Jets somehow are respectable this year then this division may be wide open (although you have to give the nod to the Bills unless injury strikes)

Hate playing the pats in game 1 of the season.  That's when you get the most surprises.  BB likes to figure out wins early and have the team peak towards the end of the season.  Well, the end of the season is a brutal last 7 games with only the Jags and Falcons being their layup victories. Mac may also be hitting the rookie wall by then so who knows.

I think they are a running team.  Miami is not strong against the run, but their D can stop the pass (and can cover the Tight end position quite well).  Bills are the same.  You put Mac back there to throw 30 times and I cannot see how good things happen.  I see them at best at 5-4 nine games in, with the possibility of being 3-6.  The last 8 games are 3-5 to me.

Joe Bryant said:

I agree. I think it was the right move by a mile. 

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Since the question is how will NE win, IMO, the plan is a little different than what is being projected or reported. Many places have indicated NE will be a running team with occasional passing with an effort to minimize Jones’ role and have him be a game manager. 

But the way they have been utilizing him, to me, shows something different. They have been trying to have the offense go at a much faster pace and with Mac in the game they have passed a lot more than they have run.

If you heard Josh McDaniels, he has indicated they love what they’ve seen from Jones and he’s been running things the way they want him to. There’s also been talk of being less predictable than in year’s past. They really want to keep drives manageable and have 2nd and short and avoid 3rd and longs, as last year they barely converted any long third downs. 

So the sense I get is they will try to play faster, prevent teams from changing personnel, and try to be a more balanced offense. With Jones not being a runner, I think they will pass more than they will run. So lots of short passes, a strong run game, but then chunk plays on play action. 

Bottom line, I think Jones and the receiving options are getting a bit under projected and the RBs are probably being a little over projected in terms of workload. 

On a side note, Jones so far has adjusted play calls at the LOS, has made quick and correct decisions, gets the ball out quickly, and his accuracy has been better than advertised. I saw a stat that said he only three 4 errant passes in the preseason games. Everything else was considered catchable. The asterisk in all of that is that he really hasn’t been playing against defensive starters. But he’s looked great when he’s played. 

Former OC Charlie Weis has commented that Jones has absorbed more and has been doing better at this point than Brady did. Obviously Jones is not even out of diapers yet and has 20 years to play to get anywhere near Brady. But drawing favorable comparisons to someone that helped develop Brady can only be a good thing. 

Anarchy99 said:

Since the question is how will NE win, IMO, the plan is a little different than what is being projected or reported. Many places have indicated NE will be a running team with occasional passing with an effort to minimize Jones’ role and have him be a game manager. 

But the way they have been utilizing him, to me, shows something different. They have been trying to have the offense go at a much faster pace and with Mac in the game they have passed a lot more than they have run.

If you heard Josh McDaniels, he has indicated they love what they’ve seen from Jones and he’s been running things the way they want him to. There’s also been talk of being less predictable than in year’s past. They really want to keep drives manageable and have 2nd and short and avoid 3rd and longs, as last year they barely converted any long third downs. 

So the sense I get is they will try to play faster, prevent teams from changing personnel, and try to be a more balanced offense. With Jones not being a runner, I think they will pass more than they will run. So lots of short passes, a strong run game, but then chunk plays on play action. 

Bottom line, I think Jones and the receiving options are getting a bit under projected and the RBs are probably being a little over projected in terms of workload. 

On a side note, Jones so far has adjusted play calls at the LOS, has made quick and correct decisions, gets the ball out quickly, and his accuracy has been better than advertised. I saw a stat that said he only three 4 errant passes in the preseason games. Everything else was considered catchable. The asterisk in all of that is that he really hasn’t been playing against defensive starters. But he’s looked great when he’s played. 

Former OC Charlie Weis has commented that Jones has absorbed more and has been doing better at this point than Brady did. Obviously Jones is not even out of diapers yet and has 20 years to play to get anywhere near Brady. But drawing favorable comparisons to someone that helped develop Brady can only be a good thing. 

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Seems that Both Mac and Tua play better at speed than traditionally.  I think McDaniels has recognized this.  I hope Miami realizes the same thing.

Anarchy99 said:

Just curious as to why you suggest they will only win 6 or 7 games? Compared to last year, their defense is absolutely stacked, they have one of the best OLs and running attacks in the league, and they have upgraded their receiving targets. Rookies are hard to predict at QB, but Jones has looked great at figuring out defenses, adjusting play calls, and his accuracy on passes has been insane. Most of the updated W/L predictions I have seen are 10 or 11 wins. With bad luck 9 wins, with good luck 12 wins. Based off of all of that, I don't see how they win fewer games than last season.

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Maybe 6 or 7 games is a little low but I don’t see the playoffs.   You have a rookie QB, little talent at WR, and reliance on often injured TEs to move the ball if the run game struggles at all.  

DocHolliday said:

Maybe 6 or 7 games is a little low but I don’t see the playoffs.   You have a rookie QB, little talent at WR, and reliance on often injured TEs to move the ball if the run game struggles at all.  

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I'll give you Hunter has had issues staying on the field, but Smith has averaged playing in 15 games a year. Win totals notwithstanding, NE has improved at every position group except DB (ie, could be an issue until Gilmore comes back). Even so, the defense should be stout. They now have multiple players that can get after the QB and blow up plays that they will be able to rotate in. Who knows if the puzzle pieces will fit and if the chemistry is there, but Top 5 defense plus Top 15 offense should equal playoffs. At least that's how it looks on paper.