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2021 Undervalued Offenses (1 Viewer)

LawFitz

Footballguy
Each year, we end up with offenses that provide some amazing fantasy value relative to draft day consensus opinions. I try to identify these offenses and invest my later round selections in them.

For this season, I came up with the following. What do these teams have in common? Coach/QB/OL (perhaps a stretch with Big Mac in NE, but I project good things) - every other team with later-round ADP key assets is missing one or more of these three key elements for fantasy success.

1. Saints - Payton + OL + Jameis is going to create a ton of WR/TE points once again, yet the top players at those positions on this team are being draft late or not at all.

Severely Undervalued: Winston, Calloway, Johnson | Sleepers: Jones Jr., Troutman

2. Browns - I posted another thread about this, so look there if you're more interested, but to me, these guys are the definition of post-hype sleeper. 4th yr QB who finished very strong at the back half of last season; 2nd-yr offensive-minded HC, coming off Coach of the Year; best OL in football.

Severely Undervalued: OBJ | Undervalued: Baker, Hunt, Landry, Peoples-Jones; Hooper

3. Rams - Matt Stafford and Jared Goof. One of these is not like the other!

Severely Undervalued: Higbee | Undervalued: Stafford, Michel, all three WRs

4. Raiders - Their D will likely still stink, but they were a top offense last season. Their OL lacks depth, but is actually looking solid along the starting front - dare I suggest, better than the vast majority of last season's weekly starting Raider OLs. Carr has steadily improved each year under Gruden and was quietly good last year. Their top WR from last season is gone and they have several young-ins ready to take his snaps/targets.

Severely Undervalued: Carr, Ruggs | Undervalued: Jacobs, Drake | Sleepers: Edwards, Moreau, Zay Jones

5. Patriots - Bill gonna Bill and yet their key offensive pieces are all being drafted as if this team is going to stink. They reloaded their OL, D and TE. Their running game seems severely undervalued right now. Harris is in position for a breakout campaign and if he falters, Stevenson and/or Taylor are primed to step in. TE and WR could also produce some sneaky good fantasy plays this year.

Severely Undervalued: Smith | Undervalued: Harris, Stevenson, Henry

 
Each year, we end up with offenses that provide some amazing fantasy value relative to draft day consensus opinions. I try to identify these offenses and invest my later round selections in them.

For this season, I came up with the following. What do these teams have in common? Coach/QB/OL (perhaps a stretch with Big Mac in NE, but I project good things) - every other team with later-round ADP key assets is missing one or more of these tree key elements for fantasy success.

1. Saints - Payton + OL + Jameis is going to create a ton of WR/TE points once again, yet the top players at those positions on this team are being draft late or not at all.

Severely Undervalued: Winston, Calloway, Johnson | Sleepers: Jones Jr., Troutman

2. Browns - I posted another thread about this, so look there if you're more interested, but to me, these guys are the definition of post-hype sleeper. 4th yr QB who finished very strong at the back half of last season; 2nd-yr offensive-minded HC, coming off Coach of the Year; best OL in football.

Severely Undervalued: OBJ | Undervalued: Baker, Hunt, Landry, Peoples-Jones; Hooper


I really like all those.

I think Winston is going to be top 5 this year.  I like the raiders offense as well...not to be lights out but the value on all those guys has fallen so far they are practically free

 
4. Raiders - Their D will likely still stink, but they were a top offense last season. Their OL lacks depth, but is actually looking solid along the starting front - dare I suggest, better than the vast majority of last season's weekly starting Raider OLs. Carr has steadily improved each year under Gruden and was quietly good last year. Their top WR from last season is gone and they have several young-ins ready to take his snaps/targets.

Severely Undervalued: Carr, Ruggs | Undervalued: Jacobs, Drake | Sleepers: Edwards, Moreau, Zay Jones
Any more insight on your thoughts as to why Ruggs would be severely undervalued, but the possessions receivers wouldn't be? Carr has never seemed to make the most of any elite speed receivers in the past (perhaps a misconception by me, but it seems that way). And so far I haven't seen anything out of Ruggs that indicates he's anything more than a boom/bust prospect each week relying on big plays. Not contradicting you, just curious.

 
Any more insight on your thoughts as to why Ruggs would be severely undervalued, but the possessions receivers wouldn't be? Carr has never seemed to make the most of any elite speed receivers in the past (perhaps a misconception by me, but it seems that way). And so far I haven't seen anything out of Ruggs that indicates he's anything more than a boom/bust prospect each week relying on big plays. Not contradicting you, just curious.


Carr was one of the best in the NFL at throwing deep last season (mostly to Aguilar, who now wears a Patriots shirt). Ruggs played a lot better than he's being given credit for last season when healthy - he wasn't healthy most weeks after getting dinged up week 1. His per target metrics were outstanding. He bulked up this offseason and is most likely to fill the WR1 role IMO; that said, Edwards and Jones both had very solid camp/preseason as well and could end up taking the lead here, after Waller Baller.

 
Carr was one of the best in the NFL at throwing deep last season (mostly to Aguilar, who now wears a Patriots shirt). Ruggs played a lot better than he's being given credit for last season when healthy - he wasn't healthy most weeks after getting dinged up week 1. His per target metrics were outstanding. He bulked up this offseason and is most likely to fill the WR1 role IMO; that said, Edwards and Jones both had very solid camp/preseason as well and could end up taking the lead here, after Waller Baller.


He fell all the way into round 11 in my shark draft last night...flying under the radar big time

 
It sounds crazy to me and I’ll probably end up being wrong but I’m liking the Jets 

QB Wilson, RB Carter and WR Davis to be specific. 

 
I Agree with your above posts, and with the jets to be sure.

I think 2 other teams people are sleeping on are the Dolphins and the panthers to an extent.

Miami:  They do not have a rushing attack.  They can pretend that they do, but honestly, they are going to have to do it through the air, and that sets Tua up to have a great season.  Also, their depth at WR and TE seems to have devalued the position so guys like Gesecki, Waddle, fuller are all undervalued.  Gaskin is likely to catch at least 60 balls this year (remember last year he got dinged up and then lost some games to COVID). Their D is solid, but this year is a "prove it" year for Tua with Watson and Rodgers likely shaking loose next year (the dolphin superbowl window (if they have one) likely starts in 2022.  All those draft picks they amassed will be in their primes).

The Panthers upgraded their QB (Teddy vs Darnold is a huge difference in terms of downfield attack) yet people think outside of CMAC that the team will somehow be worse in passing.  DJ, Robby, and Marshall are all about 2 rounds below value because of this and Darnold is a 14+ rounder and may throw for 4k yards.  

 
Watch out for WTF. The bearded one will guide them thru the valley of death, much like a modern day Moses. Terry M. will become the superstar he deserves to be, and the rest shall follow.

 
Undervalued

I was on the Patriots being undervalued before the Mac Jones announcement.

Chargers - huge upgrade in coaching staff and year 2 of wonderkid Herbert

Bengals - will be among the league leaders in passing yards, terrible defense, improved offense

Jets - I've been on team Zach Wilson for a while now

49ers - Lance will take over and this offense will fly

Steelers - Big Ben is health, Najee is the real deal, OL the only question mark

Browns - the offense is maturing, need WRs to stay healthy

Overvalued

Cardinals - Kingsbury/Kyler offense has peaked

Lions - dumpster fire, it'll be worse than people realize

Dolphins - Tua has to prove it to me

Colts - Don't trust Wentz or the WRs

 
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overvalued:

Patriots - rosey colored glasses and stories of yore and Christmases long long ago. stop. it's a rookie QB on a team with no name WRs, no name RBs, in a tough division on a team that was putrid last season. BB can't be BB without tom brady. period. this team is .500 or maybe 9-8 at best.wont win afc east, they wont come close. in short, NE sucks. move on already.

Browns - not really the team as a whole .but OBJ? please stop the nonsense. hasn't caught more than 77 balls in a season since the Carter administration was in office. dude misses games every year, doesn't produce liek we think he should. and for pete's sake ppl, PLEASE stop posting videos of this dope making one handed catches in practice. this is now his schtick. and he does it in games.and misses.over and over. then goes to the sideline and makes love to a kicking net. wtf would ever draft this turd , who tf wants to watch this immature drama queen do his thing. he's the most overrate player in nfl history.

Colts - Wentz has never thrown more than 27 TD in a season. only once played 16 games . dude can't hit the ocean with a beach ball. seriously, why is he even in the NFL?! bad signing by a bad franchise with an incompetent front office and lackluster coaching staff. I'm downgrading all colts players, not that I would ever consider taking one in the first place, the only value I see there is maybe, just maybe, Pittman.

Chiefs - yeah, they'll score pts. they'll need to , their defense is putrid. TB exposed them for what they are, a defense that can't stop a power run game, can't stop WRs. they suck. their defense is their achilles heel. they can't stop 10-14 play drives. they can't get off the field. and never doubt Reid's ability to screw things up.mcnabb had a good 5 yr run.mahomes is on that same trajectory. good then really average QB play. at some point the reid coaching ideology wears out its welcome. 

Lions - LOL. lions. can we call them calicos? dan campbell ??? nfl's first ever 0-17 team. 

Cards - not buying Kyler Murray as a top 5 QB. probably not top 10. no running game. bad coaching. I don't buy what they're selling.

Chargers - just not feeling warm n fuzzy about SD ..have'nt looked sharp in fake games - but they mean something. I'm not buying herbert to continue his hot streak. i think he declines somewhat.

Bears - Nagy.rookie QB. smoke-n-mirrors RB in monty , who only does well against pop warner teams. I dont see how you people are thinking the bears are going to be good. 6 wins, top.means fantasy wasteland except a. robinson.maybe.

Undervalued:

Steelers - you're in a coma if you think this team is going to be ho-hum again. Big Ben will be a top 5 QB. Claypool likely a top 20 WR. Najee will get his. Freiermuth - the week 2 waiver pickup of the year.

Jets - they're going to be greasy good offensively.

Houston - Terrible Tyrod is going to throw to Cooks on 1st,2nd,3rd downs and 5th down , 6th down, 7th down.lol. Cooks is going to be a top 15 WR once again.no one in the free world is even talking about this guy because of the supposed decline of the Texans yeah they suck, yeah they'll be far behind in games, but Cooks is a legend as a sleeper WR who ALWAYS produces.ALWAYS. what'da think , the Texans will be 3-n-out every damn series? come on now.

Jags - hate Meyer all you want. After week 1 , you'll be sorry you did. there is a basket full of fantasy players on this offense. they're going to win more than you think.Robinson has RB to p5 potential. you think doug friggin marrone is anywhere near the coach that Meyer is?! lol. you're crazy. preseason game 3 is what you're going to see from this offense. avoid at your own risk.

Dolphins - big boy Waddle is uncoverable. you heard it here first. he's going to feast. no one on the team to compete with for catches. Fuller? lol go sell crazy somewhere else. Parker? he's already hurt, as always!! oh, and avoid Gaskin at your own peril, he's going to be a top 15 RB every time you doubt him , he produces. he will again. hist stats are avg 14.2 carries/gm, 58 yds/gm rushing. easily upgradable to 200+ carries. do we really believe in malcolm brown?  

Denver - teddy b is less than average but he's good in this spot. talent at the WR positions, Fant down n out with an injury means sutton and jeudy will pop this season. J. Williams offers elite blocking, 3-down material, and the afc west has some very weak run defenses. they will thrive in 2021.

Packers - how is it that the ole reliable QB, Rodgers, is being consiered outside the top 5 , esp coming off of an NFL MVP season?! it feels like people are dismissing the Packers. this team is going to be a fantasy producing dream landscape.

 
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LawFitz said:
Carr was one of the best in the NFL at throwing deep last season (mostly to Aguilar, who now wears a Patriots shirt). Ruggs played a lot better than he's being given credit for last season when healthy - he wasn't healthy most weeks after getting dinged up week 1. His per target metrics were outstanding. He bulked up this offseason and is most likely to fill the WR1 role IMO; that said, Edwards and Jones both had very solid camp/preseason as well and could end up taking the lead here, after Waller Baller.
He’s been my sneaky QB2 since inaugural start up auction in my dynasty SF league. As consistent as they come. 

I’m still hoping he has a  next level. 

 
He’s been my sneaky QB2 since inaugural start up auction in my dynasty SF league. As consistent as they come. 

I’m still hoping he has a  next level. 
I’ve been a big Carr fan in the past but I feel a little burned. When I’ve counted on him, he hasn’t delivered.  I still like him, but this year his WR corps seems lacking.

 
I’ve been a big Carr fan in the past but I feel a little burned. When I’ve counted on him, he hasn’t delivered.  I still like him, but this year his WR corps seems lacking.
As compared to last year when he was surrounded by probowl WRs? 

 
don’t get me wrong, he’s a solid QB2.  I think I’ve just been unlucky spot starting him over the last 3-4 years.  And I don’t see the potential for more than QB14-QB16.
I needed to win 1 more game to get a 1st round BYE last year. 

Naturally it was the groin game. Because of that game I was playing week 15 instead of resting & lost to a team that beat me 180-ish to 140-ish. Typical scoring is ~125 in this league  my opponent just blew up. 

Of course my team outscored everyone in week 16, but it didn’t matter. 10 points from Carr in week 14 & I win that league. Wasn’t meant to be. 

so I get it. 

 
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overvalued:

Patriots - rosey colored glasses and stories of yore and Christmases long long ago. stop. it's a rookie QB on a team with no name WRs, no name RBs, in a tough division on a team that was putrid last season. BB can't be BB without tom brady. period. this team is .500 or maybe 9-8 at best.wont win afc east, they wont come close. in short, NE sucks. move on already.

Browns - not really the team as a whole .but OBJ? please stop the nonsense. hasn't caught more than 77 balls in a season since the Carter administration was in office. dude misses games every year, doesn't produce liek we think he should. and for pete's sake ppl, PLEASE stop posting videos of this dope making one handed catches in practice. this is now his schtick. and he does it in games.and misses.over and over. then goes to the sideline and makes love to a kicking net. wtf would ever draft this turd , who tf wants to watch this immature drama queen do his thing. he's the most overrate player in nfl history.

Colts - Wentz has never thrown more than 27 TD in a season. only once played 16 games . dude can't hit the ocean with a beach ball. seriously, why is he even in the NFL?! bad signing by a bad franchise with an incompetent front office and lackluster coaching staff. I'm downgrading all colts players, not that I would ever consider taking one in the first place, the only value I see there is maybe, just maybe, Pittman.

Chiefs - yeah, they'll score pts. they'll need to , their defense is putrid. TB exposed them for what they are, a defense that can't stop a power run game, can't stop WRs. they suck. their defense is their achilles heel. they can't stop 10-14 play drives. they can't get off the field. and never doubt Reid's ability to screw things up.mcnabb had a good 5 yr run.mahomes is on that same trajectory. good then really average QB play. at some point the reid coaching ideology wears out its welcome. 

Lions - LOL. lions. can we call them calicos? dan campbell ??? nfl's first ever 0-17 team. 

Cards - not buying Kyler Murray as a top 5 QB. probably not top 10. no running game. bad coaching. I don't buy what they're selling.

Chargers - just not feeling warm n fuzzy about SD ..have'nt looked sharp in fake games - but they mean something. I'm not buying herbert to continue his hot streak. i think he declines somewhat.

Bears - Nagy.rookie QB. smoke-n-mirrors RB in monty , who only does well against pop warner teams. I dont see how you people are thinking the bears are going to be good. 6 wins, top.means fantasy wasteland except a. robinson.maybe.

Undervalued:

Steelers - you're in a coma if you think this team is going to be ho-hum again. Big Ben will be a top 5 QB. Claypool likely a top 20 WR. Najee will get his. Freiermuth - the week 2 waiver pickup of the year.

Jets - they're going to be greasy good offensively.

Houston - Terrible Tyrod is going to throw to Cooks on 1st,2nd,3rd downs and 5th down , 6th down, 7th down.lol. Cooks is going to be a top 15 WR once again.no one in the free world is even talking about this guy because of the supposed decline of the Texans yeah they suck, yeah they'll be far behind in games, but Cooks is a legend as a sleeper WR who ALWAYS produces.ALWAYS. what'da think , the Texans will be 3-n-out every damn series? come on now.

Jags - hate Meyer all you want. After week 1 , you'll be sorry you did. there is a basket full of fantasy players on this offense. they're going to win more than you think.Robinson has RB to p5 potential. you think doug friggin marrone is anywhere near the coach that Meyer is?! lol. you're crazy. preseason game 3 is what you're going to see from this offense. avoid at your own risk.

Dolphins - big boy Waddle is uncoverable. you heard it here first. he's going to feast. no one on the team to compete with for catches. Fuller? lol go sell crazy somewhere else. Parker? he's already hurt, as always!! oh, and avoid Gaskin at your own peril, he's going to be a top 15 RB every time you doubt him , he produces. he will again. hist stats are avg 14.2 carries/gm, 58 yds/gm rushing. easily upgradable to 200+ carries. do we really believe in malcolm brown?  

Denver - teddy b is less than average but he's good in this spot. talent at the WR positions, Fant down n out with an injury means sutton and jeudy will pop this season. J. Williams offers elite blocking, 3-down material, and the afc west has some very weak run defenses. they will thrive in 2021.

Packers - how is it that the ole reliable QB, Rodgers, is being consiered outside the top 5 , esp coming off of an NFL MVP season?! it feels like people are dismissing the Packers. this team is going to be a fantasy producing dream landscape.


Love this post even if I disagree with a lot of it. My #1 critique is that I don't think you account for coaching and OL enough. When those two go sour, everything does. And vice versa when they bloom - IF you have at least a competent QB (rare) and decent skill players (not rare).

 

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