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Guys you're worried you're too high on (1 Viewer)

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
This seems to happen with at least one player every year. Last year for me, it was Devin Singletary. Feels silly looking back on it, but I thought he had shown a lot of growth over the course of his rookie season, and some fantasy analysts I trust were high on him as well. In mocks, I started noticing it seemed easier and easier to get him, so while I started off targeting him as my RB2 but by the time my real draft rolled around I waited and still got him as my RB3. I was thrilled and couldn't understand why people were taking Moss ahead of him. In retrospect, I understand exactly why.

This year, it's Josh Jacobs. I still think he's really talented, and I'm not particularly worried about Drake -- I don't think he's all that good, and unless they're explicitly signed to be The Guy, free-agent RBs usually don't have much of an impact. Worst case, he'll most likely just take the passing-down work that Jacobs was already not getting. I think Jacobs could easily match the numbers he's put up during his first few years in the league, which would make him a solid RB2, plus I think he has some upside. 

But once again, I'm worried that I seem to be the only person who feels that way. The one draft I've had so far (12-team PPR), I got him in the fourth, in the same range as Montgomery, Carson, Robinson, Sanders and Gus. I consider him to have way more upside than any of those.

And yet ... maybe there's a reason he's falling. Am I so out of touch? (No, it's the children who are wrong.)

Anyway, that's the one that's keeping me up at night. Who's your version of Josh Jacobs?

 
De’Andre Swift, I keep drafting him
That's funny, I've been avoiding him, and then in the last 24 hours I was like, "Am I dismissing him too quickly?" But then I decided the injury scares me too much; I hate drafting guys with preseason soft-tissue injuries. If he were fully healthy, I think he would definitely fit the "RB2 with upside" label

 
Aiyuk

Chase

Lamar

Henderson

AJ Brown/Julio

I also seem to rate Chubb and Aaron Jones higher than most, but still have not gotten any shares thus far.

 
And yet ... maybe there's a reason he's falling. Am I so out of touch? (No, it's the children who are wrong.)

Anyway, that's the one that's keeping me up at night. Who's your version of Josh Jacobs?


First, Jacobs will be fine. Be happy you landed him. People are down on him for the things you said you weren’t worried about (Drake especially) and IMO they shouldn’t be.

Mine is pretty much anyone I have more than 1 share of. Higgins & Pitts this year.

The only thing worse than being wrong about an assumed top player is being wrong about them in two leagues at once. 

 
That's funny, I've been avoiding him, and then in the last 24 hours I was like, "Am I dismissing him too quickly?" But then I decided the injury scares me too much; I hate drafting guys with preseason soft-tissue injuries. If he were fully healthy, I think he would definitely fit the "RB2 with upside" label
That + he’s in Detroit. I’m not as down on the Lions as some, but I’m also not eager to make a Lion the centerpiece of my offense. 

if he fell far enough I’d draft him on talent & upside alone. And then I’d draft JamWill even if I have to reach a full round. 

And then I’d have 2 Lions. :doh:  

 
First, Jacobs will be fine. Be happy you landed him. People are down on him for the things you said you weren’t worried about (Drake especially) and IMO they shouldn’t be.

Mine is pretty much anyone I have more than 1 share of. Higgins & Pitts this year.

The only thing worse than being wrong about an assumed top player is being wrong about them in two leagues at once. 
Separate discussion, but that’s why I always try to diversify across my leagues. I just don’t have that much faith in my pre-draft opinions.

There was one year (2014?) where I had two teams that were practically identical. Hated it.

 
Definitely Henderson…I like the offense, I think he’s pretty good and done well when he gets the ball and is healthy but McVey is unpredictable and I hate drafting guys that get their value from opportunity vs pure talent.  He is cheap enough though that he doesn’t cost a ton if he flames out.  Anyway….Henderson keeps ending up on my teams and we’ll see how it works out.

 
Chase Claypool.   As a dynasty owner I’m extremely high on him but I’m concerned about this year and being able to rely on him to put up consistent points as a reliable starter or next man up in case of injury or bye weeks.

 
Montgomery.....No matter how I mock I can't pass on him in the third. I feel like all of the receivers in this round are the same guy. 

Pitts...Is he this years CEH?

Joe Mixon...It terrifies me to draft him but it terrifies me to pass on him. He could be this years Todd Gurley from a few years ago. People were hating on him and he went late second round and ended up RB1. 

Tom Brady...He's gonna throw 50 TD's. This is his "Peyton Manning year two in the offense moment".

 
Chase Claypool.   As a dynasty owner I’m extremely high on him but I’m concerned about this year and being able to rely on him to put up consistent points as a reliable starter or next man up in case of injury or bye weeks.
In my minds eye he seems so bright and shiny. I do fear that Ben is done. Still, I can't pass on him when I have the chance. 

 
Chubbs. i've talked myself into thinking he's the next entry into the elite level ahead of or at least equal to Zeke & Kamara. Paid as much for him for this season.

 
Maybe worried isn't the right word, but perhaps wishing I picked someone else. I took DK Metcalf over Calvin Ridley(and to a lesser extent DeAndre Hopkins) because I'm under the impression Seattle is going to be a much faster paced offense this season with a new OC, and I think Metcalf was a rawer prospect who was just scratching the surface of what he's capable of a year ago, and has legit WR1 overall upside, especially if he widens the gap between himself and Lockett.

However, I do worry I may have gotten too cute, as both Ridley and Hopkins should see more targets(perhaps 30+ more in Ridley's case) and will likely be more consistent week to week.

With the way the rest of my team ended up, lots of high variance boom/bust guys, I kind of already wish I'd taken Ridley instead. Its probably a no wrong answer kind of thing, but its the closest regret I've got in my draft.

 
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Maybe worried isn't the right word, but perhaps wishing I picked someone else. I took DK Metcalf over Calvin Ridley(and to a lesser extent DeAndre Hopkins) because I'm under the impression Seattle is going to be a much faster paced offense this season with a new OC, and I think Metcalf was a rawer prospect who was just scratching the surface of what he's capable of a year ago, and has legit WR1 overall upside, especially if he widens the gap between himself and Lockett.

However, I do worry I may have gotten too cute, as both Ridley and Hopkins should see more targets(perhaps 30+ more in Ridley's case) and will likely be more consistent week to week.

With the way the rest of my team ended up, lots of high variance boom/bust guys, I kind of already wish I'd taken Ridley instead. Its probably a no wrong answer kind of thing, but its the closest regret I've got in my draft.
FWIW I would take DK over Ridley in a second. Hopkins is closer but I still would probably do that. I just think he’s a freak with massive upside. He has the best QB/offense of the three. And he’s super fun to root for. 

 
Besides Brady above I’m all in on AJB.  Top 3 WR this yr IMO.  I have him all over the place.  

 
I have Ekeler in 2/3 leagues, as well as Davante Adams.   I pivoted in my 3rd league as I didn't want them everywhere. (Yeah, my life consists of ALWAYS drawing draft slots of 7-10, Literally. Every.Time. )       :lol:

One league left, its a 10 teamer. We draft Tuesday.   I'm already wondering on how I'm gonna spend my 8th pick.   (Its randomized right before the draft)

 TZM

 
I've cooled on Deebo.  Not because I don't think the talent is there, but because it's starting to sink in how many mouths to feed on that offense.

Shenault on the other hand I'm driving the bus.  Still love that I'm 3/3 with him.  I'm also on record for a big Meyers year.

 
Worried that I have too much exposure:

  • Higgins (he's gonna be a stud with Burrow while Chase takes a year to settle in, right?)
  • Hardman (but all late picks, so he can be easily dropped if he doesn't work out in about 1-4 weeks) (of course he'll explode in weeks 8-16)
  • Joe Burrow (he's gotta break out, right?)  My backup in a lot of leagues
Ones I'm not worried about:

  • Shenault - grabbed him everywhere I could
  • Javonte Williams - again, grabbed him everywhere I could
  • Mooney - late round pick who is receiving all kinds of good press (Fields will help)
  • Sermon - did not get him as much as I wanted, but will likely try to trade for him early before he plays too much

 
Anyway, that's the one that's keeping me up at night. Who's your version of Josh Jacobs?


I wouldn't worry too much, especially as a 4th round pick, so you have 3 studs before him, right?  He's a good (maybe not great) runner, but he will get the carries.  Not worried about Drake stealing too many, like may say, he'll catch a lot of balls which Jacobs didn't do anyway.  Didn't they also improve their OL?  It was horrible last year.

 
Chase Claypool.   As a dynasty owner I’m extremely high on him but I’m concerned about this year and being able to rely on him to put up consistent points as a reliable starter or next man up in case of injury or bye weeks.


LOVE him, think he will be a top 5 receiver somewhere in years 3-4 - if he gets a decent QB.  Just not this year - I see see a downfall from Ben the Rapist and they resigned JuJu and they will run Harris A LOT and their OL is terrible.  Doesn't add up to a good year for the Steelers (D will carry them).

 
Maybe worried isn't the right word, but perhaps wishing I picked someone else. I took DK Metcalf over Calvin Ridley(and to a lesser extent DeAndre Hopkins) because I'm under the impression Seattle is going to be a much faster paced offense this season with a new OC, and I think Metcalf was a rawer prospect who was just scratching the surface of what he's capable of a year ago, and has legit WR1 overall upside, especially if he widens the gap between himself and Lockett.

However, I do worry I may have gotten too cute, as both Ridley and Hopkins should see more targets(perhaps 30+ more in Ridley's case) and will likely be more consistent week to week.

With the way the rest of my team ended up, lots of high variance boom/bust guys, I kind of already wish I'd taken Ridley instead. Its probably a no wrong answer kind of thing, but its the closest regret I've got in my draft.


Hopkins is not vaccinated so is likely to miss a game or two or three.

 
Besides Brady above I’m all in on AJB.  Top 3 WR this yr IMO.  I have him all over the place.  
I have Brady in a few places - he kept falling to the 8-10 round range and when I was waiting on QB, I just couldn't resist even if I do worry about the cliff year.  AJB though, yikes.  He's a bad hour from being out of the league.

 
I have Brady in a few places - he kept falling to the 8-10 round range and when I was waiting on QB, I just couldn't resist even if I do worry about the cliff year.  AJB though, yikes.  He's a bad hour from being out of the league.
Not Antonio Brown, AJ Brown.  

 
Ekeler, Saquon, Gallup, Gio; I didn't realize how many shares I had in those 4. Saquon wasn't always there in the early 2nd, but when he was he didn't get past me. Ekeler was my pick in the late first over Saquon. Gallup and especially Gio just screamed value to me. Gallup isn't high up on the pecking order for targets, but maybe Amari or Lamb are out when bye weeks hit.

 
I don’t think about diversifying between my two keeper leagues. 
This year I have Murray, Tannahill, Adams, Montgomery and Gus in both. Am I worried? Not really. At some point I liked their value in a trade or draft pick.  
 

 
Elijah Moore. I have him EVERYWHERE! Dynasty, redraft, best ball, and guillotine

ETA: I went and checked all 8 leagues and I only have him on 5 teams.  :lol:  

I might have to trade for him. 🤔

 
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Also, an important point. 

This is likely much more helpful to everyone if it's a discussion on players you think are over valued. Not players you thought were a good value and you drafted and now because you drafted them, you're worried about them. That's natural for just about every player.

These threads are always best when they have little to do with your own team and more to do with info everyone can use. 

 
But you drafted him because you think he's a good value at the spot you picked him, right?
Yes, in the redraft leagues he was always in the 140s. One Best Ball league, I got him at 170. In my rookie drafts, always the 2nd round. I'm actually a little upset that I missed him in a few leagues.  :(

 
Ekeler, Saquon, Gallup, Gio; I didn't realize how many shares I had in those 4. Saquon wasn't always there in the early 2nd, but when he was he didn't get past me. Ekeler was my pick in the late first over Saquon. Gallup and especially Gio just screamed value to me. Gallup isn't high up on the pecking order for targets, but maybe Amari or Lamb are out when bye weeks hit.
Gallup is still an incredible value, especially in dynasty leagues, and I fully expect him to be starting opposite Lamb in 22; Lamb is clearly the 1a heading into this season, but Gallup has a good rapport with Dak and Cooper is getting older and has injury concerns. 
 

As for Gio, he may have a dreaded HAS, but they would be wise to get him back to full strength and unleash him in 3-4 weeks. They absolutely love him, and I can see his role growing as he gets healthier. All reports out of camp were that he and Antonio were scoring the majority of TD’s. He’s an Arians type of player 

 
Kenan Allen

I am invested in him pretty deep across the board.   I "reached" for him at the start of the 3rd in my big money league and now starting to get an uneasy feeling about doing so

 
Gallup is still an incredible value, especially in dynasty leagues, and I fully expect him to be starting opposite Lamb in 22; Lamb is clearly the 1a heading into this season, but Gallup has a good rapport with Dak and Cooper is getting older and has injury concerns. 


mostly agree - Gallup is probably a ~60/900/5 guy if everyone stays healthy, which is plenty viable for a flex spot or spot start for BYEs.

Dallas D isn’t much improved so they’ll still be throwing a lot. One note about that: I saw a video (forget source) breaking down Dak’s value & they pointed out something I hadn’t considered - that a lot of the play from behind games Dak found himself in 2020 were largely Dak’s fault due to a pick or fumble deep in Cowboys territory.

A lot of folks believe Dak will be better this year. it’s possible Dak being better could = fewer turnovers, resulting in a bit less passing. 

Back on Gallup, I like his floor, and of course if something happened to Amari or Lamb, he gets an immediate boost in production. 

The place I disagree is about him starting opposite Lamb next year. Last I saw, the Cowboys said they wouldn’t be extending him, so this year is his audition tape for a new gig in 2022.
https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/cowboys-michael-gallup-wont-get-extension-this-year/

I grabbed Cedrick Wilson in dynasty on that news. He seems to be next in line, and both AC & Gallup will likely move to greener pastures. 

 
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Also, an important point. 

This is likely much more helpful to everyone if it's a discussion on players you think are over valued. Not players you thought were a good value and you drafted and now because you drafted them, you're worried about them. That's natural for just about every player.

These threads are always best when they have little to do with your own team and more to do with info everyone can use. 
I get your point, Joe -- and we all know the feeling of putting a thread out there in the world and then having people interpret it differently from what we had intended -- but my point with this thread was the opposite: guys you think are undervalued, but where you're starting to doubt your dissenting view.

Also, I agree a thread like this would be pointless if all we were doing was seeking reassurance after all our drafts are over, but in my case at least, I've only had one draft so far and have two more coming up in the next few days, including in my main money league. This is gut-check time, and I think it's a good exercise to stress test your assumptions, particularly when you're way out of step with the market. 

 
I get your point, Joe -- and we all know the feeling of putting a thread out there in the world and then having people interpret it differently from what we had intended -- but my point with this thread was the opposite: guys you think are undervalued, but where you're starting to doubt your dissenting view.

Also, I agree a thread like this would be pointless if all we were doing was seeking reassurance after all our drafts are over, but in my case at least, I've only had one draft so far and have two more coming up in the next few days, including in my main money league. This is gut-check time, and I think it's a good exercise to stress test your assumptions, particularly when you're way out of step with the market. 


No worries. I get it. This will be very different than from the value I was hoping people would get from identifying values. All good. 

 
Gallup is still an incredible value, especially in dynasty leagues, and I fully expect him to be starting opposite Lamb in 22; Lamb is clearly the 1a heading into this season, but Gallup has a good rapport with Dak and Cooper is getting older and has injury concerns. 
 

As for Gio, he may have a dreaded HAS, but they would be wise to get him back to full strength and unleash him in 3-4 weeks. They absolutely love him, and I can see his role growing as he gets healthier. All reports out of camp were that he and Antonio were scoring the majority of TD’s. He’s an Arians type of player 
Thank you for sharing your knowledge! I definitely would have given up on Gio too soon. Thanks!

 
Gallup has been lining up in the slot a bunch too, IIRC. I grabbed him late and really didn't think twice about it. Now, if you're counting on him more than a bye week/injury fill-in...

I wasn't really too concerned about Mike Davis until I saw his thread. Seems like every year I draft the guy with the most pre-season yes/no chatter unknowingly. :(

 
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Julio.

Everyone has his ceiling at astronomically high numbers. He got hurt his first practice and has been wrapped in bubble wrap and not practiced since.

 
Najee Harris. I'm at the end of the round in all of my drafts this year and I see myself getting a lot of shares of him this season.

 
Also, an important point. 

This is likely much more helpful to everyone if it's a discussion on players you think are over valued. Not players you thought were a good value and you drafted and now because you drafted them, you're worried about them. That's natural for just about every player.

These threads are always best when they have little to do with your own team and more to do with info everyone can use. 
I think the thread may actually be more useful the opposite direction: guys you keep finding yourself taking higher than everyone else and why that may be. 

I agree the natural reaction when you realize that you are a consistent outlier on a player is to second guess, but I think the discussion/introspection on why that may be is valuable.

For me, I tend to find myself taking Sermon a round higher than most. I was also taking Gaskin higher than most until he started moving up the last week or so.

For both of those guys, for me it’s about taking “safer” guys early and higher upside guys after that. When I looked at the RBs around those guys, I’d rather have the role/opportunity and pass catching ability of Gaskin and the talent and offense for Sermon. 

In general, the deeper in the draft I go, the more I value less proven younger talented players who have the potential to vastly over perform their ADP versus guys like Melvin Gordon or Damien Harris who are more known commodities who are unlikely to take big jumps at this point.

 

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