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Short WRs in the NFL - aka fishing for outliers (1 Viewer)

TripItUp

Footballguy
From the FF Index page 17

"In the LAST FIFTY YEARS only five 5 foot 8(or less) receivers caught 60 passes in a season"

Rondale Moore is 5'7" ( as an example, this is not a rondale moore thread)

Elijah Moore is 5'9"

Discuss

 
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So Beasley is 5'8" and has done it several times. I can't think of any others at WR. At RB, there are many examples including Sproles, who caught more than 60 passes multiple times. I think ARI will be happy if Rondale catches 50 passes.

 
Remember, Bigger Isn’t Always Better When Evaluating Wide Receivers

Monson, an analyst at PFF since 2008, said that a player’s vertical height doesn’t matter nearly as much as the horizontal separation they create with the defender. A short receiver who is wide open gives his quarterback a throwing window the size of a doorframe, while a tall receiver who is covered gives his quarterback a throwing window the size of a door handle.

“The bottom line is, quarterbacks throw to open guys,” Monson said...

There is no question that bigger pass catchers get more opportunities. When play-callers get closer to the end zone, we expect them to target the 6-foot-5 receiver instead of the 5-foot-10 guy, and the data backs this up. In 2015, PFF’s Mike Clay found that taller and heavier receivers get significantly more targets around the end zone than shorter or lighter ones. But when Clay adjusted those numbers for opportunity, he found something surprising. While bigger players get more targets in and around the end zone and therefore more touchdowns, there is little evidence that they are better at converting their opportunities into scores than shorter or lighter players.

“What I found was that the efficiency on those throws was basically equal,” said Clay, now an analyst at ESPN. “There was no real difference.”

Other research backs up Clay’s findings. While height seems like an intuitive advantage, once it’s adjusted for opportunity, tall receivers have not outperformed shorter ones in the red zone or anywhere else on the field. The size of receivers has consistently gone up over the past 30 years, but height has not correlated with an increase in production.


Wide Receivers and Height

When 73″ or 74″ is the median for all four tests, with no obvious trend indicating a taller receiver correlates to better production or stats, I can’t support the tall receiver thinking. The data indicates a 6'1″ receiver has just as good a chance at fantasy success than one who stands at 6'3″. Height on a receiver is nice, but is by no means the most important indicator of success. Since the height of successful wide receivers varies so much, be sure to weigh other factors when drafting your fantasy team.

 
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Current WRs listed at 5'10":

  1. Antonio Brown
  2. Randall Cobb
  3. Mecole Hardman
  4. Tyreek Hill
  5. TY Hilton
  6. Desean Jackson
  7. Diontae Johnson
  8. Christian Kirk
  9. Tyler Lockett
  10. Darnell Mooney
  11. Hunter Renfrow
  12. Amari Rodgers
  13. Sterling Shepard
  14. Jaylen Waddle
Current WRs listed at 5'9":

  1. Tutu Atwell
  2. Marquise Brown
  3. Damiere Byrd
  4. Brandin Cooks
  5. D'Wayne Eskridge
  6. KJ Hamler
  7. Scotty Miller
  8. Elijah Moore
  9. Rondale Moore
  10. Kalif Raymond
Current WRs listed at 5'8":

  1. Cole Beasley
  2. Jamison Crowder
  3. Marquise Goodwin
  4. Olamide Zaccheaus
Current WRs listed at 5'7":

  1. Isaiah McKenzie
Current WRs listed at 5'6":

  1. Deonte Harris
I got all of those heights from FFToday, which lists a total of 135 WRs. That is 30/135 = 22% of those current WRs listed at 5'10" or shorter. I think it is safe to say that NFL teams believe WRs at 5'10" or shorter can be successful. And a number of the players listed have proven that.

I also think NFL offenses are evolving, and Arizona's Air Raid based offense is an example. IMO that offense offers a stronger chance of success for a shorter WR than others would. It may or may not pan out, but it's obvious that Kliff Kinsbury thinks Moore can succeed in his offense.

 
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First player that comes to mind is Steve Smith.  He was blazing fast and a tough SOB though.  

 
Current WRs listed at 5'10":


  1. Antonio Brown


  2. Randall Cobb


  3. Mecole Hardman


  4. Tyreek Hill


  5. TY Hilton


  6. Desean Jackson


  7. Diontae Johnson


  8. Christian Kirk


  9. Tyler Lockett


  10. Darnell Mooney


  11. Hunter Renfrow


  12. Amari Rodgers


  13. Sterling Shepard


  14. Jaylen Waddle

Current WRs listed at 5'9":


  1. Tutu Atwell


  2. Marquise Brown


  3. Damiere Byrd


  4. Brandin Cooks


  5. D'Wayne Eskridge

  6. KJ

    Hamler


  7. Scotty

    Miller



  8. Elijah Moore


  9. Rondale Moore


  10. Kalif Raymond

Current WRs listed at 5'8":


  1. Cole Beasley


  2. Jamison Crowder


  3. Marquise Goodwin


  4. Olamide Zaccheaus

Current WRs listed at 5'7":


  1. Isaiah McKenzie

Current WRs listed at 5'6":


  1. Deonte Harris

I got all of those heights from FFToday, which lists a total of 135 WRs. That is 30/135 = 22% of those current WRs listed at 5'10" or shorter. I think it is safe to say that NFL teams believe WRs at 5'10" or shorter can be successful. And a number of the players listed have proven that.

I also think NFL offenses are evolving, and Arizona's Air Raid based offense is an example. IMO that offense offers a stronger chance of success for a shorter WR than others would. It may or may not pan out, but it's obvious that Kliff Kinsbury thinks


Moore


can succeed in his offense.
The whole reason for this thread is because Rondale Moore measured in at 5'7" at the combine. I'm not sure where FFToday gets their numbers but they don't seem like a very reliable source.  They might just be taking the numbers from what they were listed at in college which is often overstated.

BTW, I believe Tyreek Hill measured at 5'8" at the combine, so there may well be other outliers in your list if someone wants to take the time to check the actual combine numbers for all those players.  I don't have time to do so.

 
The whole reason for this thread is because Rondale Moore measured in at 5'7" at the combine. I'm not sure where FFToday gets their numbers but they don't seem like a very reliable source.  They might just be taking the numbers from what they were listed at in college which is often overstated.

BTW, I believe Tyreek Hill measured at 5'8" at the combine, so there may well be other outliers in your list if someone wants to take the time to check the actual combine numbers for all those players.  I don't have time to do so.


I understand. That's why I said "listed at." In addition to Rondale Moore, the heights of several of the others I listed are also probably overstated, as you mentioned. For that reason, I don't think Moore's height is a sole reason he cannot be successful.

When healthy, he is one of the most athletic players in the NFL. When coming out of high school, he had the top SPARQ score in the country and ran a 4.33 40. Then he was a consensus first team All American in 2018 as a freshman at Purdue before playing just 7 of Purdue's 18 games in 2019-2020 due to injuries. Here are some of his draft ratings:

8 of those 9 sources have him as a first or second round pick, and the other had him as a mid-third. NFL.com had the lowest grade among these sources, yet here is their summary on him:

Overview

Slightly undersized slot receiver who makes up for it with above-average strength and competitive fire that shows up throughout the tape. He can beat one-on-one coverage with speed but lacks the size and length to legitimately challenge NFL cornerbacks outside. He's difficult to press, elusive out of route breaks underneath and his ability after the catch could make him a priority target when it's time to move the sticks on third down. He lacks desired game experience on paper, but he's the same player week in and week out and teams know exactly what they will get with him. His football character and acumen are big pluses to go with his talent. Moore should become a good starting slot target with punt return potential.

Draft Projection

Rounds 2-3

NFL Comparison

Tyler Lockett


Then, the Cardinals drafted him as the 7th WR and 49th overall player, which is in line with those grades above.

Obviously, the Cardinals and all of those people who worked those draft profiles knew about Moore's height. Will they all be proven wrong? It will be interesting to see it play out.

 
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Wonder if a short QB with a short WR combo is more of a problem than if one of them is taller? Seems like short/short could be limiting for throwing angles.

 
Rondale is already an outlier. He was the 49th pick in the draft and appears to have a large role locked in as a rookie. He's an outlier athlete and had one of the greatest true freshman seasons in college football. 

 
Height has a lot less predictive value than draft capital, I don't see why anybody would care about it. If one wanted to look into appropriately, he'd have to use a multivariate analysis correcting for where the player was drafted. You'll find draft capital and height are already correlated themselves which brings up collinearity, another can of worms.

These threshold procedures are bush league analytics.

 
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Rondale is already an outlier. He was the 49th pick in the draft and appears to have a large role locked in as a rookie. He's an outlier athlete and had one of the greatest true freshman seasons in college football. 


Does is concern you that he had health issues in college?

 

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