FBG Expert Sortable Rankings Critique (1 Viewer)

Tick · May 14, 2004

Mooch loves RBBC.

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I don't think he does. Mariucci plays the hand he's dealt. During his 6 years at San Francisco he only used it twice (2002, 2003). And I think that was mainly because Hearst was too good to take off the field and was a much better blocker than Barlow and was needed. Had Barlow been able to pick up a blitz and block as well as Hearst, he would have seen a lot more time. As for Detroit last year, I don't consider that RBBC, I consider that a mess. Not one of those RB's deserved to be a starter nor was that offense capable of having a RB put up solid numbers. As a team they only rushed the ball 331 times. I think we'll see a definite increase in those numbers and it should be close to or around 400. That should leave plenty of opportunities for Kevin Jones and a 250 carry season should not be out of reach for him. The majority of the remaining 150 or so carries will probably go to pinner as long as he looks good and can perform better than Bryson which shouldn't be too hard to do. I guess it all depends on what someone's definition of RBBC is. When a RB get 60% or more of the rushes, or is capable of playing all 3 downs, I don't consider that RBBC. In Detroit it will most likely all come down to blocking though. If Kevin Jones comes in and picks up the blocking scheme and blitz pick-ups well that will increase the time he sees on the field. Jones is by far the most talented RB on the team and he gives them the best running threat. I'm not sold on Pinner like I once was. He was great in college but he's not the same runner as he was then. He might be healed from the broken left ankle AND ligament damage, but that does not mean he has regained his confidence and ability that he once had. That, IMO, is the hardest part of recovery. He definitely looks a few steps slower to me and I think the only way he can fight for playing time is to prove to be the best blocking RB on the team or a very solid short yardage gainer. He should be able to beat out Bryson and does have decent hands, but he is nowhere near the runner Kevin Jones is. So depending on one's definition of RBBC the situation in Detroit could or could not end up that way. Either way, I'm not so sure RBBC is a bad thing. Having Pinner or Bryson coming in to give Jones a rest or for certain situations should allow Jones to be a lot less tired. If Jones is playing healthy and fresh all game he should be able to have a 4.2-4.5 ypc average and that should give him 1000+ rushing yards for the season. Add in some receptions and TD's and I'll take that from a "RBBC" RB anyday.

Very good post. I actually agree somewhat on Jones's prospects (I ranked him #25). I could see myself happy with him as an RB2 if I picked a WR in the first two rounds. I'm just too scared at this point to pick him in the second round. I just don't see a clear enough path for him to move him ahead of:http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...77312&hl=expert15. SDavis16. Barlow17. Barber18. Martin19. JJones20. Shipp21. Bennett22. Staley23. Duckett24. TJones25. KJonesOkay, in hindsight, Duckett should be behind KJones, and I can understant why some people would put Staley behind him, and TJones is a question mark... I just think putting KJones in the top 20 is assuming a bit too much.

Maurile Tremblay · May 14, 2004

You have a point with SA, but I will play the "odds" too and bet that JLew can't get 2G rushing again, he is not an integral part of the receiving game, and his top-5 status is TD driven (something that may be inconsistent in Baltimore)

I disagree that J.Lew's top 5 performance was TD driven. No RB in the top 6 had fewer TDs than J.Lew.

Marc Levin · May 14, 2004

You have a point with SA, but I will play the "odds" too and bet that JLew can't get 2G rushing again, he is not an integral part of the receiving game, and his top-5 status is TD driven (something that may be inconsistent in Baltimore)

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I disagree that J.Lew's top 5 performance was TD driven. No RB in the top 6 had fewer TDs than J.Lew.

Leave it to MT to go ahead and prove my point by disagreeing.

w/o top-5 TD numbers and w/o 2G yards rushing, JLew will be bottom ten, if he's lucky.1700 rush yards, 200 receiving yards, and less than 15 TDs won't get him into the top-5.

Maurile Tremblay · May 14, 2004

1700 rush yards, 200 receiving yards, and less than 15 TDs

That's about where I've got him right now -- 1763 rush yards, 239 rec yards, 12.5 TDs.

packersfan · May 14, 2004

Part I Quarterbacks conjured up some great discussion, let's take a look at the runningback rankings. (FBG Sortable Rankings)

Assumptions: 12 team league, all team owners are experts

Note: Some RBs such as Julius Jones(Hambrick Cut) and Barlow(Rattay injury) were purposely not considered for this thread since the rankings were based on information at the beginning of the month.

Running Backs

OVERRATED

1) Clinton Portis - You've got four proven All-Pros in proven systems ranked lower than Portis: Lewis, Alexander, Williams and Edge. Portis is in a new system with a new QB and with a new coach. Too many variables for my taste. Denver is runningback Nirvana, Washington might be and then again it might not be...I'd rather have a proven commodity that high in the draft. He could explode or he could bust. He needs to explode to justify going #5 overall in drafts...I'll play the odds.

Expert Rankings Observations:

Nice Job: Wimer...wow #12 is pretty low, maybe too low, but I can tell we have the same mindset.

2) Brian Westbrook - Westbrook looks great when he plays, but he strikes me as brittle and lacks the elusiveness IMO to be a starting runningback in the NFL for an entire season. I'm betting this is RBBC by mid-season at the latest...maybe as early as week 1. If I'm drafting a guy as my RB #2, I want a guy that will be there for me in the playoffs...Westbrook doesn't strike me as that guy. There are a number of runningbacks ranked lower than him that I'd rather have.

Expert Rankings Observations:

Stretching: A handful have him at #17 suggesting he's nearly a solid #2 - Wimer, Gray, Smith, Dowling

UNDERRATED

1) DeShaun Foster - Well if I'm going to give Stephen the Overrated tag, I'm surely going to have to give DeShaun the underrated tag. Definitely not a RB#2, but #36 would put him at the end of the #3's...I don't think so. Mr. Foster is one of the most talented RBs in the league, and the ranking of #36 will be scoffed at within the first half of the NFL season...mark my words.

Stretching: Apparently half of the experts don't believe Mr. Foster is even worthy of top 40 recognition.

2) Kevin Jones - Well in my QB critique I had Harrington as a sleeper, for many of the same reasons I think Jones will be as well. I'm not huge on taking rookies in re-drafts, but this situation reeks of sleeper: 1) Zero RB competition 2) 1st round Talent 3) Proven Offensive System 4) Nice SOS DIF...even Bryson almost looked like a pro in this offense in '03. Jones should shine.

Stretching: Wimer at #34...dude, Wayne Fontes isn't in Detroit anymore.

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On Portis: My critique of Portis' new situation is this: Joe Gibbs is a team guy, and he always has used a system where one back is the "featured" guy, but where several other players get a significant number of touches. Look back at Gibb's early 90's "glory" days Pro-Football-Reference.com on Was. Redskins and you'll see that Earnest Byner never had double digit TD's while playing in Washington. Ricky Ervins and Gerald Riggs always "vultured" a significant number of touches/TD's. There is the one fluke 1347 yards/24 TD season that John Riggins had in 1983, but even in that stellar season Riggins still saw 145 rushes and 47 passes go to Joe Washington. Basically, I see Portis' likely role to be like Byner's in the early 90's -- carry the ball a lot, but watch Ladell Betts, Rock Cartwright and Trung Canidate steal touches and TD's in their situational roles.

Do you honestly not believe Portis is better than Earnest Byner? C'mon, Portis may be the most talented RB in the NFL in terms of pure talent. He's scary good. And he may very well be a more talented RB than Riggins was too. And one thing that is for certain is Gibbs never gave up arguably the best CB in the NFL to get any of those RBs either. Gibbs is going to use this guy and he's going to use him plenty. And why would he not use Portis near the goal-line? Take a look at Portis' TDs last year; many of them came inside the 10 and inside the 5. He's a strong runner between the tackles. I think Portis is going to shatter the belief that he was simply a product of the Denver system. I consider him a risk from a durability standpoint only. I have no concerns about how well he'll play when he's healthy or how Gibbs will use him.

Colin Dowling · May 14, 2004

Denver "system" or not, if I have to rest some hopes on a guy changing teams, I'm sure glad he has a career YPC over 5.COlin

Unlucky · May 14, 2004

Quick question about the Denver system - wasn't the long time O-Line coach Alex Gibbs? Any relation to Joe? Any chance Washington will have a similar blocking scheme to Denver?

Maurile Tremblay · May 14, 2004

No relation to Joe Gibbs. Alex Gibbs will be the OL coach for the Falcons this year.

David Yudkin · May 14, 2004

Edgerrin James is definitely far from being washed up...

First half of last season while he tried to rediscover his skills

121 carries for 456 yards (3.8 YPC) / 16 rec for 90 yards and 2 touchdowns

Second half of last season when he began to display his former talents

189 carries for 803 yards (4.25 YPC)/ 35 rec for 202 yards and 9 touchdowns

James is only 25, is playing on an awesome offensive team and won't have the defenses keying on him thanks to Marvin Harrison and Peyton Manning. I expect pretty big things from him in 2004.

I will fight to the death when there is talk of Edge being an uber stud again. There is no doubt he is highly skilled and plays on an explosive team. There's also no doubt that when he does play, his ppg average is phenomenal.As you mentioned, Edge had a GREAT second half. But in the first half he was either unproductive, banged up, or out of the lineup.

But given the required workload these days to crack the EOY Top 5, I cannot see him EVER being healthy enough to get enough touches and be effective enough to rank that high (unless he starts putting up Priest-like TD numbers).

2003 Touches

Holmes 394

LT 413

Green 405

Lewis 413

Portis 328

2002 Touches

Holmes 383

Williams 430

LT 451

Portis 306

Alexander 354

Edge will need to get another 10% or more workload wise to be in the right demographic, but he would also need to improve his per carry average, increase his receiving yardage, and/or increase his TD rate to get enough fantasy scoring-wise to rank that high.

He came up 54 fantasy points short in 2003. Even if you project his stats to 16 games from last year, he STILL was not a Top 5 back EOY.

As I pointed out in my RB with 20+ carries per game article, Edge by far has the highest % of games played with 20+ carries out of all active RB. That may actually work against him, as his workload likely is hurting his overall health and longterm durability.

Overall, he's a great RB, no doubt, but IMO he will forever and a day have problems staying on the field.

Chris Smith · May 14, 2004

Edgerrin James is definitely far from being washed up...

First half of last season while he tried to rediscover his skills

121 carries for 456 yards (3.8 YPC) / 16 rec for 90 yards and 2 touchdowns

Second half of last season when he began to display his former talents

189 carries for 803 yards (4.25 YPC)/ 35 rec for 202 yards and 9 touchdowns

James is only 25, is playing on an awesome offensive team and won't have the defenses keying on him thanks to Marvin Harrison and Peyton Manning. I expect pretty big things from him in 2004.

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I will fight to the death when there is talk of Edge being an uber stud again. There is no doubt he is highly skilled and plays on an explosive team. There's also no doubt that when he does play, his ppg average is phenomenal.As you mentioned, Edge had a GREAT second half. But in the first half he was either unproductive, banged up, or out of the lineup.

But given the required workload these days to crack the EOY Top 5, I cannot see him EVER being healthy enough to get enough touches and be effective enough to rank that high (unless he starts putting up Priest-like TD numbers).

2003 Touches

Holmes 394

LT 413

Green 405

Lewis 413

Portis 328

2002 Touches

Holmes 383

Williams 430

LT 451

Portis 306

Alexander 354

Edge will need to get another 10% or more workload wise to be in the right demographic, but he would also need to improve his per carry average, increase his receiving yardage, and/or increase his TD rate to get enough fantasy scoring-wise to rank that high.

He came up 54 fantasy points short in 2003. Even if you project his stats to 16 games from last year, he STILL was not a Top 5 back EOY.

As I pointed out in my RB with 20+ carries per game article, Edge by far has the highest % of games played with 20+ carries out of all active RB. That may actually work against him, as his workload likely is hurting his overall health and longterm durability.

Overall, he's a great RB, no doubt, but IMO he will forever and a day have problems staying on the field.

good information but I think the most important aspect to remember in regards to James is his age. At 25 years old and two full years removed from his injury woes, I believe he does still have a lot more in him.

I think what we saw during the 2nd half of last year was a resurgence of James back into the limelight. His knee felt right again, the offensive line opened holes and he ran with conviction. For the first time since his injury, he looked decision and explosive on the field.

I am not worried about James getting hurt this season more than I worry about any running back suffering a blow. He is healthy and the fact he plays for a high-octane offense means defenses cannot key on him. I have no problem going with him as my 1st running back going into the fantasy year.

David Yudkin · May 14, 2004

good information but I think the most important aspect to remember in regards to James is his age. At 25 years old and two full years removed from his injury woes, I believe he does still have a lot more in him.I think what we saw during the 2nd half of last year was a resurgence of James back into the limelight. His knee felt right again, the offensive line opened holes and he ran with conviction. For the first time since his injury, he looked decision and explosive on the field.I am not worried about James getting hurt this season more than I worry about any running back suffering a blow. He is healthy and the fact he plays for a high-octane offense means defenses cannot key on him. I have no problem going with him as my 1st running back going into the fantasy year.

I agree with everything you said with the proviso that I would not take Edge until the end of the first round, and if I did, I'd have to go after a lot of RB depth later on just in case. I think Edge will have a hard time earning back the spot he will be drafted in based on EOY rankings (although he will be fine on a ppg basis).I think some of what I was trying to say had nothing to do with Edge's age or his prior health issues. ANY RB that gets his extended workload will have problems staying on the field. Edge has already exhibited that. When you mix in his major and minor injuries over his last 3 years, I don't see him playing in 16 games a year and getting 450 touches. But that's just me.LT is a candidate for starting to have health issues based on his unhuman workload. History has shown that guys with a workload of 120% WILL start getting chinks in the armor.

Chris Smith · May 14, 2004

ANY RB that gets his extended workload will have problems staying on the field. Edge has already exhibited that. LT is a candidate for starting to have health issues based on his unhuman workload. History has shown that guys with a workload of 120% WILL start getting chinks in the armor.

Even if he can't go all 16 games with touching the ball close to 30 times per game I will gladly take the games he can do so and not look back. If he can even equal his production over the final eight games of last season, he will certainly represent value this year.Nice points though and good call on Tomlinson. With 1260 touches in only three seasons, he could be due to suffer a let-down of some kind.

David Yudkin · May 14, 2004

Even if he can't go all 16 games with touching the ball close to 30 times per game I will gladly take the games he can do so and not look back. If he can even equal his production over the final eight games of last season, he will certainly represent value this year.Nice points though and good call on Tomlinson. With 1260 touches in only three seasons, he could be due to suffer a let-down of some kind.

Again, IF Edge can repeat his second half for most or all of the season he could be a great value (depending where you draft him). However, I think the "REAL" Edge lies somewhere in the middle of:

121 carries for 456 yards (3.8 YPC) / 16 rec for 90 yards and 2 touchdowns in the first half of the season189 carries for 803 yards (4.25 YPC)/ 35 rec for 202 yards and 9 touchdowns in the second half of the season

We are also assuming the Colts are going to rank #1 in passing and #2 in scoring again. Edge's production will be as good as the offense's is. They scored almost 100 more points last year than the year before.

Chris Smith · May 14, 2004

We are also assuming the Colts are going to rank #1 in passing and #2 in scoring again. Edge's production will be as good as the offense's is. They scored almost 100 more points last year than the year before.

This is fun.

I would say in return that it doesn't matter if the Colts passing attack ranks first or not. What matters is that the defenses believe Peyton Manning and the passing game is a legitimate threat and that will certainly be the case. If a defense cannot key on the running game and the offense runs the ball 25+ times per game, ultimately the offensive rushing attack will be successful no matter who is carrying the ball. The fact it is a talented back such as James in a good situation with no true competition for his job only improves his stock in my eyes.In all honesty, I looked for reasons to downgrade him after I finished my projections and saw where he slotted in my rankings. But the more I looked at it, the more I liked his situation this year. Time will tell but I believe he will stay close to where he is in my rankings. :thumbup:

Perhaps you'll see me doing this :wall:

:JoeT: in a few more months. After all, I did think Plaxico Burress was going to tear it up last season :confused:

David Yudkin · May 14, 2004

We are also assuming the Colts are going to rank #1 in passing and #2 in scoring again. Edge's production will be as good as the offense's is. They scored almost 100 more points last year than the year before.

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This is fun. I would say in return that it doesn't matter if the Colts passing attack ranks first or not. What matters is that the defenses believe Peyton Manning and the passing game is a legitimate threat and that will certainly be the case. If a defense cannot key on the running game and the offense runs the ball 25+ times per game, ultimately the offensive rushing attack will be successful no matter who is carrying the ball. The fact it is a talented back such as James in a good situation with no true competition for his job only improves his stock in my eyes.In all honesty, I looked for reasons to downgrade him after I finished my projections and saw where he slotted in my rankings. But the more I looked at it, the more I liked his situation this year. Time will tell but I believe he will stay close to where he is in my rankings. Perhaps you'll see me doing this :JoeT: in a few more months. After all, I did think Plaxico Burress was going to tear it up last season

As I said initially, I will fight to the death about James. (There are a few other players that fall in this category. but I won't mention who they are or we'll never get to bed tonight.)You were doing pretty well on this debate until you said:

If a defense cannot key on the running game and the offense runs the ball 25+ times per game, ultimately the offensive rushing attack will be successful no matter who is carrying the ball.

25 carries times 16 games = 400 carries on the season. Last year, there were 30 teams that had that many. So let's raise that number to 450 carries. That pares it down to 14 teams:Tennessee was certainly a threat to pass. They had 486 carries. And a 3.3 ypc.New England was certainly a threat to pass. They had 473 carries. And a 3.4 ypc.Dallas had several games with solid passing numbers. They had 515 carries. And a 3.9 ypc.Miami was not quite as solid passing but did have Chambers. They had 487 carries. And a 3.7 ypc.It doesn't look so cut and dried that a team that is a threat to pass automatically will have a good ground game with a lot of rushing attempts.I'll save you the trouble of looking up the teams that did do well with a lot of rushes and decent passing numbers because there are some decent examples on that side, too.And I don't think it really matters for fantasy anyway. The Colts had over 450 carries and only a 3.7 ypc, yet Edge still posted solid numbers.HOWEVER . . . if the Colts drop back 100 points in their total scoring, that could have a HUGE impact on fantasy production at any of the skill positions. And team scoring WILL go down if the Colts passing game migrates substantially back toward the pack.

Marc Levin · May 14, 2004

Chris - enjoy. I had a real fun 2 or 3 page exchange on Edge with Anarch . . .err, David last June.

Mark Wimer · May 14, 2004

Part I Quarterbacks conjured up some great discussion, let's take a look at the runningback rankings. (FBG Sortable Rankings)

Assumptions: 12 team league, all team owners are experts

Note: Some RBs such as Julius Jones(Hambrick Cut) and Barlow(Rattay injury) were purposely not considered for this thread since the rankings were based on information at the beginning of the month.

Running Backs

OVERRATED

1) Clinton Portis - You've got four proven All-Pros in proven systems ranked lower than Portis: Lewis, Alexander, Williams and Edge. Portis is in a new system with a new QB and with a new coach. Too many variables for my taste. Denver is runningback Nirvana, Washington might be and then again it might not be...I'd rather have a proven commodity that high in the draft. He could explode or he could bust. He needs to explode to justify going #5 overall in drafts...I'll play the odds.

Expert Rankings Observations:

Nice Job: Wimer...wow #12 is pretty low, maybe too low, but I can tell we have the same mindset.

2) Brian Westbrook - Westbrook looks great when he plays, but he strikes me as brittle and lacks the elusiveness IMO to be a starting runningback in the NFL for an entire season. I'm betting this is RBBC by mid-season at the latest...maybe as early as week 1. If I'm drafting a guy as my RB #2, I want a guy that will be there for me in the playoffs...Westbrook doesn't strike me as that guy. There are a number of runningbacks ranked lower than him that I'd rather have.

Expert Rankings Observations:

Stretching: A handful have him at #17 suggesting he's nearly a solid #2 - Wimer, Gray, Smith, Dowling

UNDERRATED

1) DeShaun Foster - Well if I'm going to give Stephen the Overrated tag, I'm surely going to have to give DeShaun the underrated tag. Definitely not a RB#2, but #36 would put him at the end of the #3's...I don't think so. Mr. Foster is one of the most talented RBs in the league, and the ranking of #36 will be scoffed at within the first half of the NFL season...mark my words.

Stretching: Apparently half of the experts don't believe Mr. Foster is even worthy of top 40 recognition.

2) Kevin Jones - Well in my QB critique I had Harrington as a sleeper, for many of the same reasons I think Jones will be as well. I'm not huge on taking rookies in re-drafts, but this situation reeks of sleeper: 1) Zero RB competition 2) 1st round Talent 3) Proven Offensive System 4) Nice SOS DIF...even Bryson almost looked like a pro in this offense in '03. Jones should shine.

Stretching: Wimer at #34...dude, Wayne Fontes isn't in Detroit anymore.

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On Portis: My critique of Portis' new situation is this: Joe Gibbs is a team guy, and he always has used a system where one back is the "featured" guy, but where several other players get a significant number of touches. Look back at Gibb's early 90's "glory" days Pro-Football-Reference.com on Was. Redskins and you'll see that Earnest Byner never had double digit TD's while playing in Washington. Ricky Ervins and Gerald Riggs always "vultured" a significant number of touches/TD's. There is the one fluke 1347 yards/24 TD season that John Riggins had in 1983, but even in that stellar season Riggins still saw 145 rushes and 47 passes go to Joe Washington. Basically, I see Portis' likely role to be like Byner's in the early 90's -- carry the ball a lot, but watch Ladell Betts, Rock Cartwright and Trung Canidate steal touches and TD's in their situational roles.

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Do you honestly not believe Portis is better than Earnest Byner? C'mon, Portis may be the most talented RB in the NFL in terms of pure talent. He's scary good. And he may very well be a more talented RB than Riggins was too. And one thing that is for certain is Gibbs never gave up arguably the best CB in the NFL to get any of those RBs either. Gibbs is going to use this guy and he's going to use him plenty. And why would he not use Portis near the goal-line? Take a look at Portis' TDs last year; many of them came inside the 10 and inside the 5. He's a strong runner between the tackles. I think Portis is going to shatter the belief that he was simply a product of the Denver system. I consider him a risk from a durability standpoint only. I have no concerns about how well he'll play when he's healthy or how Gibbs will use him.

In response: Portis is a very talented guy, no doubt. However, Ladell Betts and Rock Cartwright do OK around the goal-line, too. Why risk your talented and explosive back in dog-piles if you have other, less expensive, options to grind up at the goal line?

As I have already pointed out, Joe Gibbs is a team guy. He'll do what's best for the Redskins as a unit, in the long term. Protecting an all-world talent like Portis from unnecessary injury risk is the smart thing to do.

Just wait and see.

Bruno2 · May 14, 2004

I know stats can be deceptive at times, and that Foster will almost certainly be better this season than last after another year recovering from the injury, but I just don't think you can say he'll be so good based on what he did last season. For reference, Stephen Davis finished showed much better in these measures than Foster did.

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Like Bulger, I believe Foster is a case where you need to be less quantitative and more qualitative in your analysis.Reasons why Foster will surprise, and why I believe he will be the true definition of sleeper.a) He has a vast amount of talentb) Davis is injury prone(the same can be said for Foster I guess, but Foster is much younger)c) Of all the guys ranked past the mid-20's, Foster has the most upside and thus is an excellent Backup to have in most fantasy formats.I'd much rather have a guy that has 1400 yard potential than a guy that is destine for RBBC...i.e. Hearst/Bell/Griffin/I'm definitley higher than 95% of the ff world on Foster...but I don't care. I think the kid is a stud and will break out one way or another this year.

Your not the only one who thinks Foster will break out this year. I've had him stashed away on my roster for almost 2 years now. Foster certainly has the talent but his circumstances raises some questions.Why I'm not sold on him yet.1. How long will it take for Davis to wear down or get injured, if he does at all?2.Can Foster possibly outplay Davis and earn the starting role?3.If Foster does become the starter for whatever reason will he be durable enough to carry the ball 20-30 times a game?4.Or will Foster and Davis split carries all year?I'm thinking this is the year Davis runs out of gas, and Foster takes over. It's just a matter of when that happens.

David Yudkin · May 14, 2004

I'm thinking this is the year Davis runs out of gas, and Foster takes over. It's just a matter of when that happens.

I find it interesting that people are quick to label SDavis as the injury risk compared to Foster when Davis has only missed 9 games in 6 years while Foster has already missed an ENTIRE SEASON.Davis' ypc went UP half a yard last year, so it's not like he's been on a production down slope. (I'm not saying he's a young stud on the rise, just that there does not seem to be evidence of a decline.)

Bruno2 · May 14, 2004

I'm thinking this is the year Davis runs out of gas, and Foster takes over. It's just a matter of when that happens.

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I find it interesting that people are quick to label SDavis as the injury risk compared to Foster when Davis has only missed 9 games in 6 years while Foster has already missed an ENTIRE SEASON.Davis' ypc went UP half a yard last year, so it's not like he's been on a production down slope. (I'm not saying he's a young stud on the rise, just that there does not seem to be evidence of a decline.)

I understand what you are saying, I wasn't saying Davis was going to get injured (although it wouldn't surprise me), but I do feel he will slow down, look at last year.The 1st half of the season Davis was awesome yardage-wise amassing 758 yards and 4.4 yds/carry but he only scored 3 TDs in that span. The 2nd half his carries went down from 172 to 146 and his yardage dipped to 686, but his yards per carry increased to 4.7 and his TDs went up to 5. So one could say he slowed in some aspects towards the end of the season due primarily to injuries and coach Fox holding him back for the playoffs. Also his ypc, in Sept-Oct he averaged 5.3 and 5 respectively. In Nov-Dec his ypc dropped to 3.9. By no means do I think Davis will just wither away without a fight i just feel by midseason Foster will be taking over for Davis whether it be due to injury or Davis's ineffectiveness.

Marc Levin · May 14, 2004

I'm thinking this is the year Davis runs out of gas, and Foster takes over. It's just a matter of when that happens.

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I find it interesting that people are quick to label SDavis as the injury risk compared to Foster when Davis has only missed 9 games in 6 years while Foster has already missed an ENTIRE SEASON.Davis' ypc went UP half a yard last year, so it's not like he's been on a production down slope. (I'm not saying he's a young stud on the rise, just that there does not seem to be evidence of a decline.)

Davis missed several games four of the last five years. Foster suffered a horrible injury and returned to form after just a year. Davis has established himself as a greater injury risk than Marshal Faulk, while Foster may or may not be an injury risk.And, Foster is not in anywhere near as great a risk category where he is a back sitting behind an injury risk. 2001 is the only year Davis started all 16 games of the year, and 2001 and 1998 are the only two years he played in all 16 games. I'd say that makes him about the biggest injury risk at RB in the entire league.

David Yudkin · May 14, 2004

I'm thinking this is the year Davis runs out of gas, and Foster takes over. It's just a matter of when that happens.

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I find it interesting that people are quick to label SDavis as the injury risk compared to Foster when Davis has only missed 9 games in 6 years while Foster has already missed an ENTIRE SEASON.Davis' ypc went UP half a yard last year, so it's not like he's been on a production down slope. (I'm not saying he's a young stud on the rise, just that there does not seem to be evidence of a decline.)

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Davis missed several games four of the last five years. Foster suffered a horrible injury and returned to form after just a year. Davis has established himself as a greater injury risk than Marshal Faulk, while Foster may or may not be an injury risk.And, Foster is not in anywhere near as great a risk category where he is a back sitting behind an injury risk. 2001 is the only year Davis started all 16 games of the year, and 2001 and 1998 are the only two years he played in all 16 games. I'd say that makes him about the biggest injury risk at RB in the entire league.

Davis runs out of steam almost every season. This isn't news breaking. Here's a clip I had on him a month or two ago.

Here are Davis' rushing totals broken down into 4 game increments:1999:1st 4: 4 games, 92-400-9 (18 receiving yards)2nd 4: 4 games, 53-329-3 (75)3rd 4: 4 games, 94-417-4 (18)Last 4: 2 games, 51-259-1 (0)2000:1st 4: 4 games, 95-372-3 (119)2nd 4: 4 games, 96-430-5 (47)3rd 4: 3 games, 70-271-2 (85)Last 4: 4 games, 71-245-1 (62)2001: 1st 4: 4 games, 52-219-0 (49)2nd 4: 4 games, 110-447-1 (71)3rd 4: 4 games, 89-339-1 (40)Last 4: 4 games, 105-427-3 (65)2002:1st 4: 4 games, 69-306-3 (109)2nd 4: 3 games, 54-222-1 (21)3rd 4: 3 games, 70-198-3 (11)Last 4: 2 games, 14-94-1 (1)2003:1st 4: 4 games, 106-565-2 (52)2nd 4: 4 games, 87-427-3 (26)3rd 4: 3 games, 77-266, 2 (47)Last 4: 3 games, 48-186-1 (34)Overall:1st 4: 20 games, 414-1862-17 (347)2nd 4: 19 games, 400-1855-13 (240)3rd 4: 17 games, 400-1491-12 (201)Last 4: 15 games, 289-1211-7 (162)The numbers certainly support Davis' production slipping as the season progressed.

I recalulated the averaged games missed per year for RB a little while ago and figured it to be 2.07 games per season. By my math, 9 games in 6 seasons is much better than the league average for starting RB.I agree that the PERCEPTION is that Davis is one of the biggest injury risks, but the numbers don't really seem to support this notion. While Dvis does seem to be getting injured frequently, he normally misses a game here and a game there and has not really missed SIGNIFICANT time.

EastBayFunk · May 14, 2004

OVERRATED:Marshall Faulk - Faulk's not what he used to be and the Rams are one of my picks to be a very big disappointment next season. Marshall hasn't been able to stay healthy lately and if Steven Jackson is even remotely competent then I think he will steal touches from the get-go. I just don't see the upside here to warrant a top 15 ranking. IMO the writing is on the wall for Faulk and it's time to cross him off your draft list. It was a nice run while it lasted, but everyone slows down sooner or later.Travis Henry - Henry certainly has the talent to live up to his high ranking, but no one really knows how McGahee will be used in Buffalo. I personally think that Willis is an elite talent when he's healthy and if he is recovered from his injury I fully expect him to start stealing a significant amount of carries, particularly by the time the fantasy playoffs come around. I'd rather take my chances elsewhere. UNDERRATED:Kevan Barlow - The QB situation in San Francisco is a concern, but I have seen Barlow play a lot over the past few seasons and am confident that he will excel as long as he stays healthy. We're talking about a talented young guy with a great career YPC average who is about to take over a workhorse role. If that's not appealing then I don't know what would be. I expect a year similar to what Fred Taylor has done the past two seasons or to what Jamal Lewis did in 2002. It's tough to justify ranking Barlow ahead of guys like Edge and Ricky, but I think you'd be a fool to take Faulk over him. Kevin Jones - I can't believe that Jones is ranked below the likes of Brian Westbrook, Duce Staley, and Charlie Garner. Those guys are ok, but they all have significant flaws that will probably keep them from being #1 fantasy RB's. Jones is a big time talent who should be his team's workhorse (unless you really think Artose "2.5 YPC" Pinner is the answer). I always say that in fantasy football you need to take chances in order to build great teams. If all you do is draft proven players then you're going to end up with a lot of mediocre players. Sure, Jones isn't proven, but he's a first round RB who is likely to develop into his team's workhorse over the course of next season. He has the potential to be a top 5 RB next year. I can't say the same for many of the guys who are ranked ahead of him. I think he should definitely be one of the first 15 RB's off the board in drafts. Julius Jones - I like Julius Jones for many of the same reasons I like Kevin Jones. I don't think he's quite as talented as KJ, but he's not that far behind and his situation is ideal. He has no competition for the starting job. I'd take a chance on him in the first four rounds as my RB3 knowing that he could easily put up fringe RB1 numbers if he's even remotely talented. He'll certainly be given every opportunity to excel. RB's who I think could disappoint in 2004

riest HolmesJamal LewisStephen DavisBrian WestbrookRB's who I think could surprise in 2004:Thomas JonesJustin FargasDeShaun Foster

packersfan · May 14, 2004

I'm thinking this is the year Davis runs out of gas, and Foster takes over. It's just a matter of when that happens.

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I find it interesting that people are quick to label SDavis as the injury risk compared to Foster when Davis has only missed 9 games in 6 years while Foster has already missed an ENTIRE SEASON.Davis' ypc went UP half a yard last year, so it's not like he's been on a production down slope. (I'm not saying he's a young stud on the rise, just that there does not seem to be evidence of a decline.)

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Davis missed several games four of the last five years. Foster suffered a horrible injury and returned to form after just a year. Davis has established himself as a greater injury risk than Marshal Faulk

How is Davis more of an injury risk than Faulk when Faulk has missed more games in the last five years? Faulk has missed 11 games, including 5 last year, whereas Davis has missed 9. It seems to me Faulk is the greater injury risk, especially when you consider his last full season came longer ago (1999) than Davis' (2001).

LHUCKS · May 15, 2004

Wow, I missed out on all the action today because of a golf tournament. Anyhow, my thoughts on what has transpired:a) a lot of agreement on Westbrook being overratedb) a lof of polarity on the Foster v. Davis Debatec) It seems that Smith and I are in the minority concerning the underrated Edge argument...that's alright, we'll stick to our guns.d) I'm still completely convinced that Portis offers way too much risk, and I have yet to see an argument that puts my Portis concerns at ease. Like Vick, people are so enamored with his talent, the argument appears to be it doesn't matter what the situation is, he's going to put up great numbers. Which I obviously disagree with.e) Jones: some support but not a lot of interest in debating which leads me to believe people are taking a wait and see approach...which makes sense...in a non-commital/wimpy sort of way

Great posts by all thus far...I consider most of you my ff equals :boxing:

David Yudkin · May 15, 2004

c) It seems that Smith and I are in the minority concerning the underrated Edge argument...that's alright, we'll stick to our guns.d) I'm still completely convinced that Portis offers way too much risk, and I have yet to see an argument that puts my Portis concerns at ease. Like Vick, people are so enamored with his talent, the argument appears to be it doesn't matter what the situation is, he's going to put up great numbers. Which I obviously disagree with.

Portis has put up huge numbers working with:- Beurlein/Griese/Plummer/Beurlein/Kanell at QB- Smith/McCaffery/Lelie at WR in 2003 (best season of the lot was 74-843-3)To review Portis' last two seasons:106.8 rushing yards per game, 23.4 receiving yards per game, 5.5 ypc, 1.07 TD per game = 19.42 fantasy points per game.Edge has had Manning (Top 5 QB) and (Top 5 WR)--basically WAY better then the bums Denver has rolled out there.To review Edge's last two seasons:83.2 yards rushing per game, 23.9 reciving yards per game, 3.8 ypc, 0.52 TD per game = 13.82 fantasy points per game.Now Portis is going to Washington with a legitimate Top 5 WR candidate in Coles and potentially a Top 10 QB in Brunell--a definite upgrade from the situation in Denver last year. Portis has outproduced Edge by 40% over the past two years, yet PORTIS is the risk in this debate???You're kidding, right?I'm not Portis' biggest fan either, but even I would take him over Edge in a heartbeat.

packersfan · May 15, 2004

I think you're way too high on Brunell -- top 10 fantasy QB? Brunell was never that good in his prime seasons and he had good talent in Jacksonville back in the day -- but I do agree Portis potentially has a better (at least more consistent) QB situation now than he had last season with Plummer being a bit up and down and also injured (and Denver's backups were downright brutal when Plummer was out). Plus Coles is a better WR than anybody the Broncos have and Gardner has talent (plus McCants and Thrash offer suitable depth and certainly more than Denver has at that position). But the bottom line is Portis' talent. He's good. He's real real good. The numbers he puts up are fanastic. The key thing with him is he can he play a full season? I wouldn't hesitate to draft him with one of the top four picks, but the key thing if you do is you'd better have good depth at RB just in case Portis can't answer the durability question this season.

LHUCKS · May 15, 2004

Portis has put up huge numbers working with:- Beurlein/Griese/Plummer/Beurlein/Kanell at QB- Smith/McCaffery/Lelie at WR in 2003 (best season of the lot was 74-843-3)To review Portis' last two seasons:106.8 rushing yards per game, 23.4 receiving yards per game, 5.5 ypc, 1.07 TD per game = 19.42 fantasy points per game.

a) Denver is a system, and has proven to persevere despite it's personnel. Thus, I don't see your argument as a pro for Portis...I actually see it as a con.

To review Edge's last two seasons:83.2 yards rushing per game, 23.9 reciving yards per game, 3.8 ypc, 0.52 TD per game = 13.82 fantasy points per game.

Very skewed numbers...you're comparing apples to oranges here:a) Portis is in a new system which makes his past years' stats not as significant when trying to determine future stats. b) Edges numbers were greatly effected by the fact that the guy was coming off major injury and not playing 100% for most of those games.

Now Portis is going to Washington with a legitimate Top 5 WR candidate in Coles and potentially a Top 10 QB in Brunell--a definite upgrade from the situation in Denver last year.

a) Coles was a potential top 5 WR based on past numbers...he shouldn't even be close to that ranking in my opinion(but I'm getting ahead of myself, my WR thread will come out next week)b) Brunnell a potential top 10?? Based on what? The fact that he's old and his skills have diminished...or is this based on the fact that he's learning a new system and new personnel? Or it could be based on the fact that the new system is a system that nobody really knows much about. If that's your projection fine, I'd love to see some analytical support to back that up though.

Portis has outproduced Edge by 40% over the past two years, yet PORTIS is the risk in this debate?

a) For previously stated reasons, this statistic is relatively insignificant.b) and yes, Portis is the risk in this debate

LHUCKS · May 15, 2004

I think you're way too high on Brunell -- top 10 fantasy QB? Brunell was never that good in his prime seasons and he had good talent in Jacksonville back in the day .

Beat me to it.

LHUCKS · May 15, 2004

Portis potentially has a better (at least more consistent) QB situation now than he had last season with Plummer being a bit up and down and also injured (and Denver's backups were downright brutal when Plummer was out).

No way would I rather have Brunnel than Plummer in almost every system. And when Plummer played he was pretty solid last year...#7 in fantasy ppg.

But the bottom line is Portis' talent. He's good. He's real real good. The numbers he puts up are fanastic. The key thing with him is he can he play a full season?

And this is always the ultimate argument for Portis supporters, the argument that talent perseveres over circumstance. An argument I disagree with.

LHUCKS · May 15, 2004

On the subject of Offensive systems and a returning coach's effectiveness:When I think of Joe Gibbs' situation and offense I keep thinking of two similar instances in the NFL and in College Ball where the coach leaves the league/conference and then comes back with a different level of offensive production success.1) **** Vermeil - came back after a decent head coaching stint from years prior and helped mastermind one of the most explosive offenses in NFL History.2) John Robinson - Left USC for the pros after making USC one of the most powerful dynasties in college football history. Robinson then goes back to USC and the team isn't even a shadow of its former glory days...including the offense.I'm sure there are several other situtations where a high-profile coach has left the game and returned, these are the two that initially come to mind and both have opposite results.I'd like to hear other thoughts on similar situations. I do think Gibbs was a great coach and I respect him greatly. Whether or not his offense in '04 will produce a top 10 RB...I've got to believe the jury is still out. Thoughts?

packersfan · May 15, 2004

I don't think it's fair to discount all of what Portis has done and lay it all on Denver's "system." Sure other RBs have done well but Portis' numbers still stand out above the rest. He has averaged 107 yards rushing a game, 5.5 YPC and scored 31 TDs (1.07 per game). Let's look at the other Denver RBs by comparison: Terrell Davis (first four seasons): 105.1 yards per game, 4.8 YPC, 1 TD per game. Mike Anderson (best season): 92.9 yards per game, 5.0 YPC, 0.9 TDs per game. Olandis Gary (best season): 96.6 yards per game, 4.2 YPC, 0.6 TDs per game. So even though the Broncos have had four 1,000 yard RBs in the past several seasons, Portis has clearly been the best one of the bunch - even better statistically than Davis, who was a league MVP. Also, unlike Anderson and Gary, Portis' production did not decline in his second season (granted Gary got hurt, but he's never been the same RB since his rookie season and failed to keep a starting job in Denver even after returning from injury). He improved his yardage, while his YPC stayed the same and his TD/per game average increased very slightly (for all intents and purposes it was the same). So whereas you could argue Anderson and Gary were a product of the Denver "system," Portis' production indicates it's more than just a system which has led him to deliver terrific numbers when he's been on the field. His YPC average alone puts him head and shoulders above all of the other Denver RBs listed, including Davis (Anderson's YPC was impressive his rookie season, but in his second season as a starter it declined significantly). Denver has had a great run with its RB situation for the past several years, no doubt about it. But Portis isn't a product of a system in my opinion. He's a legitimate talent; arguably the most gifted RB in the entire league.

LHUCKS · May 15, 2004

OVERRATED:Marshall Faulk - Faulk's not what he used to be and the Rams are one of my picks to be a very big disappointment next season. Marshall hasn't been able to stay healthy lately and if Steven Jackson is even remotely competent then I think he will steal touches from the get-go. I just don't see the upside here to warrant a top 15 ranking. IMO the writing is on the wall for Faulk and it's time to cross him off your draft list. It was a nice run while it lasted, but everyone slows down sooner or later.Travis Henry - Henry certainly has the talent to live up to his high ranking, but no one really knows how McGahee will be used in Buffalo. I personally think that Willis is an elite talent when he's healthy and if he is recovered from his injury I fully expect him to start stealing a significant amount of carries, particularly by the time the fantasy playoffs come around. I'd rather take my chances elsewhere. UNDERRATED:Kevan Barlow - The QB situation in San Francisco is a concern, but I have seen Barlow play a lot over the past few seasons and am confident that he will excel as long as he stays healthy. We're talking about a talented young guy with a great career YPC average who is about to take over a workhorse role. If that's not appealing then I don't know what would be. I expect a year similar to what Fred Taylor has done the past two seasons or to what Jamal Lewis did in 2002. It's tough to justify ranking Barlow ahead of guys like Edge and Ricky, but I think you'd be a fool to take Faulk over him. Kevin Jones - I can't believe that Jones is ranked below the likes of Brian Westbrook, Duce Staley, and Charlie Garner. Those guys are ok, but they all have significant flaws that will probably keep them from being #1 fantasy RB's. Jones is a big time talent who should be his team's workhorse (unless you really think Artose "2.5 YPC" Pinner is the answer). I always say that in fantasy football you need to take chances in order to build great teams. If all you do is draft proven players then you're going to end up with a lot of mediocre players. Sure, Jones isn't proven, but he's a first round RB who is likely to develop into his team's workhorse over the course of next season. He has the potential to be a top 5 RB next year. I can't say the same for many of the guys who are ranked ahead of him. I think he should definitely be one of the first 15 RB's off the board in drafts. Julius Jones - I like Julius Jones for many of the same reasons I like Kevin Jones. I don't think he's quite as talented as KJ, but he's not that far behind and his situation is ideal. He has no competition for the starting job. I'd take a chance on him in the first four rounds as my RB3 knowing that he could easily put up fringe RB1 numbers if he's even remotely talented. He'll certainly be given every opportunity to excel. RB's who I think could disappoint in 2004riest HolmesJamal LewisStephen DavisBrian WestbrookRB's who I think could surprise in 2004:Thomas JonesJustin FargasDeShaun Foster

Faulk -I'm somewhat undecided on him until I better understand the SL situation. For now I agree with where he's at. Barlow - Agree, and if I would have put a number 4 for my underrated, Barlow would have been the guyK. Jones - Nice to see some support hereJ. Jones - Well, hard to state he's underrated until we've seen the updated rankings. I'm sure he'll be moved up significantly.Henry - Agree to an extent. I would like to see and hear more about McGahee, but Henry has never struck me as immensely talented. Consistent...yes, explosive...no. Can McGahee beat him out, need more inf

verall, we seem to be in agreement on almost every single player you've mentioned including Jones/Foster/Lewis/Davis/Westbrook/Fargas...pretty amazing/weird :eek:

packersfan · May 15, 2004

Portis potentially has a better (at least more consistent) QB situation now than he had last season with Plummer being a bit up and down and also injured (and Denver's backups were downright brutal when Plummer was out).

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No way would I rather have Brunnel than Plummer in almost every system. And when Plummer played he was pretty solid last year...#7 in fantasy ppg.

But the bottom line is Portis' talent. He's good. He's real real good. The numbers he puts up are fanastic. The key thing with him is he can he play a full season?

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And this is always the ultimate argument for Portis supporters, the argument that talent perseveres over circumstance. An argument I disagree with.

Jamal Lewis played with putrid QBs and worthless WRs and rushed for more than 2,000 yards last season. That was a case of talent prevailing over circumstance. Corey Dillon played on some horrible Cincinnati teams and put up good numbers. Go back to the days of Barry Sanders and Walter Payton playing on bad offenses and putting up huge numbers. How did they do it? Talent. Talent. Talent. And no, I don't think it's a stretch to start talking about Portis in the class of some of the all-time greats like Sanders and Payton. At the rate he's going, he's going to put up some monster numbers before his career is done. As much as I loved Sanders and Payton, neither one of them averaged 5.5 YPC in their first two seasons. That's an amazing number and Portis has done in each of his first two seasons. Portis has major talent and I think talent is the ultimate difference maker in the NFL. At the end of the day, what separates the winners from the losers is talent and the players who can be difference makers. Portis is both. But I also believe he's in a respectable environment this season. Brunell isn't a great QB by any means, but I think he'll prove to be serviceable (one thing he's always been good at, for example, is not throwing INTs). Coles is a very good WR and better than anyone Portis has played with before and the Redskins have good depth at that position and better than Denver has had the past two seasons. So it's not like Portis has nobody around him. Defenses are obviously going to key on him as they should, but I think the Redskins have enough talent to be, at worst, respectable in the passing game this season. I see absolutely no reason why Portis will suffer a major decline in production this season beyond the issue of durability. That is the only question I have about him. And getting back to an earlier comment about Edge, James has major durability questions also. Since his injury he has yet to play a full season. So he's every bit the risk from an injury standpoint that Portis is and when you consider how inferior his production has been (despite being in one of the league's most potent offenses), there's no way I'd take Edge ahead of Portis at this point in time.

LHUCKS · May 15, 2004

Portis is both. But I also believe he's in a respectable environment this season. Brunell isn't a great QB by any means, but I think he'll prove to be serviceable (one thing he's always been good at, for example, is not throwing INTs). Coles is a very good WR and better than anyone Portis has played with before and the Redskins have good depth at that position and better than Denver has had the past two seasons. So it's not like Portis has nobody around him. Defenses are obviously going to key on him as they should, but I think the Redskins have enough talent to be, at worst, respectable in the passing game this season. And getting back to an earlier comment about Edge, James has major durability questions also. Since his injury he has yet to play a full season. So he's every bit the risk from an injury standpoint that Portis is

You made some good points in your previous post in my opinion. They are not my thoughts but certainly valid arguments.

Jamal Lewis played with putrid QBs and worthless WRs and rushed for more than 2,000 yards last season. That was a case of talent prevailing over circumstance. Corey Dillon played on some horrible Cincinnati teams and put up good numbers. Go back to the days of Barry Sanders and Walter Payton playing on bad offenses and putting up huge numbers. How did they do it? Talent. Talent. Talent.

The fact remains is that we don't know if Portis can go into a mediocre offensive environment and produce top five numbers. And we surely don't know if he can go into a poor offensive environment and put up top five numbers. You can put him in the class of Barry or Walter if you want...I don't.

Portis has major talent and I think talent is the ultimate difference maker in the NFL. At the end of the day, what separates the winners from the losers is talent and the players who can be difference makers.

I think it is talent coupled with environment...there are extremely rare situations where a RB puts up top five numbers despite their surroundings. I'll play the odds and say Portis wont if his offense is mediocre or poor...both of which are very possible.

I think the Redskins have enough talent to be, at worst, respectable in the passing game this season.

Extremely hard to predict in my opinion with all of the unknowns. Can they be respectable...Yes. Will they be...maybe??

David Yudkin · May 15, 2004

Portis has put up huge numbers working with:

- Beurlein/Griese/Plummer/Beurlein/Kanell at QB

- Smith/McCaffery/Lelie at WR in 2003 (best season of the lot was 74-843-3)

To review Portis' last two seasons:

106.8 rushing yards per game, 23.4 receiving yards per game, 5.5 ypc, 1.07 TD per game = 19.42 fantasy points per game.

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a) Denver is a system, and has proven to persevere despite it's personnel. Thus, I don't see your argument as a pro for Portis...I actually see it as a con.

To review Edge's last two seasons:83.2 yards rushing per game, 23.9 reciving yards per game, 3.8 ypc, 0.52 TD per game = 13.82 fantasy points per game.

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Very skewed numbers...you're comparing apples to oranges here:

a) Portis is in a new system which makes his past years' stats nearly irrelevant when trying to determine future stats.

b) Edges numbers were greatly effected by the fact that they guy was coming off major injury and not playing 100%

Now Portis is going to Washington with a legitimate Top 5 WR candidate in Coles and potentially a Top 10 QB in Brunell--a definite upgrade from the situation in Denver last year.

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a) Coles was a potential top 5 WR based on past numbers...he shouldn't even be close to that ranking on my spreadsheet(but I'm getting ahead of myself, my WR thread will come out next week)

b) Brunnell a potential top 10?? Based on what? The fact that he's old and his skill have completely diminished...or is this based on the fact that he's learning a new system and new personnel. A new system by the way, that nobody really knows much about. If that's your projection fine, I'd like to see some analytical support to back that up though...if you don't mind.

Portis has outproduced Edge by 40% over the past two years, yet PORTIS is the risk in this debate?

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a) For previously stated reasons, this statement is completely insignificant.

a) Denver is a system, and has proven to persevere despite it's personnel. Thus, I don't see your argument as a pro for Portis...I actually see it as a con.

If you want to go there . . . Joe Gibbs has a system. His lifetime record is 140-65 with 3 Super Bowl championship rings. That system produced a 1,347 yard, 24 rushing TD season for John Riggins. And a 1,203 yard, 18 rushing TD season for George Rogers. And a 1,219 yard, 6 TD season for Gerald Riggs. (Those guys had other solid seasons as well, so "the system" seems to work pretty well.)

b) Edge's numbers were greatly effected by the fact that the guy was coming off major injury and not playing 100%.

So he can have major surgery in addition to numerous other injuries and NOT be considered an injury risk, but Portis' 3 games with an ankle sprain and a bruised chest make him more of a major injury risk?

a) Coles was a potential top 5 WR based on past numbers...he shouldn't even be close to that ranking on my spreadsheet(but I'm getting ahead of myself, my WR thread will come out next week).

Coles went from the Jets to the Skins and matched his fantasy scoring from the year before. In BOTH years, he played with unproven QB. Now he gets to play with a veteran . . . and his numbers will go down?

If your implication is that WR production drops dramatically with a new veteran QB . . . here's how some other stud WR did when a new veteran QB was brought in.

Moulds with Bledsoe added: 100-1287-10

Keyshawn with Vinny added: 83-1131-10

Michael Jackson with Vinny added: 76-1201-14

Tim Brown with Gannon added: 90-1344-6

Moulds with Flutie added: 67-1368-9

Conway with Flutie added: 71-1125-6

Muhammad with Beurlein added: 96-1253-8

Burress with Maddox added: 78-1325-7

Ward with Maddox added: 112-1329-12

Westbrook with Brad Johnson added: 65-1191-9

Albert Connell with Brad Johnson added: 62-1132-7

Keyshawn with Brad Johnson added: 106-1266-1

Moss with Cunningham added: 69-1313-17

Moss with George added: 80-1413-11

Carter with George added: 90-1241-13

Tim Brown with George added: 104-1408-5

Terrance Matthis with Geroge added: 111-1342-11

Rison with Grbac added: 72-1092-7

Carter with Moon added: 122-1256-7

Jake Reed with Moon added: 85-1175-4

Galloway with Moon added: 72-1049-12

Toomer with Collins added: 79-1183-6

Herman Moore with Mitchell added: 72-1173-11

Horn with Blake added: 94-1332-8

Those numbers look pretty solid to me, but as I said, I was not sure if teams changing QB were the issue here.

b) Brunnell a potential top 10?? Based on what? The fact that he's old and his skill have completely diminished...or is this based on the fact that he's learning a new system and new personnel. A new system by the way, that nobody really knows much about. If that's your projection fine, I'd like to see some analytical support to back that up though...if you don't mind.

All we have to go on is what Gibbs' teams did in the past. Quoting from my Player Spotlight piece that will be up this week . . .

Here are the passing TD numbers for the #1 QB when Gibbs coached in Washington: 19, 23, 29, 24, 13 combined, 22, 23 combined, 33 combined, 22, 16, and 28. (I can’t recall if the multi-QB years were by choice or out of necessity.) That averages out to 23 TD a year.The Skins QB in that era included Joe Theismann, Jay Schroeder, Doug Williams, and Mark Rypien, and I can’t see how Brunell is not comparable to the players in that group. And of the 8 years with one main QB, the starter surpassed 3,500 yards passing in 7 of them.

In the latter part of Gibbs' tenure, the Redskins evolved into a pass happy team, producing three 1,000-yard WR in 1989 (Gary Clark 1,229; Art Monk 1,186; and Ricky Sanders 1,138).

Based on my projection for this year (300 completions in 500 attempts, 3,500 passing yards, 24 TD, 15 INT, 200 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD, 265 fantasy points), Brunell would have finished in a tie for the #8 spot in fantasy QB scoring in 2003. I wouldn’t draft him as my QB1, but he may very well rank as one by the end of the year.

You certainly have the right to disagree with my assessment. But some pretty mediocre QB thrived in Washington under Gibbs before.

Portis has outproduced Edge by 40% over the past two years, yet PORTIS is the risk in this debate?

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a) For previously stated reasons, this statement is completely insignificant.

I think it's VERY significant, you don't. We'll have to wait until January to see if it made any difference or not.

I forgot to add that in addition to producing some very solid RB totals, Gibbs also had several solid WR seasons as well (above and beyond the year with three 1,000 yard WR):

Charlie Brown 78-1225-8

Art Monk 106-1372-7, 91-1226-2, 73-1068-4

Gary Clark 74-1265-7, 56-1066-7, 75-1112-8 , 70-1340-10

Rickey Sanders 73-1148-12, 71-1049-8

And yes, I am fully aware that there is nothing at all that says what worked 15 years ago will work in the current NFL. But I happen to think that Gibbs is a coaching mastermind and will come up with a scheme to get the most out of his players.

LHUCKS · May 15, 2004

Excellent discussion Mr. Yudkin,I'll respond to your most recent post tomorrow. I've got to get some sleep for now. Look for my response in about ten hours. I'm licking my chops :football:

packersfan · May 15, 2004

Portis is both. But I also believe he's in a respectable environment this season. Brunell isn't a great QB by any means, but I think he'll prove to be serviceable (one thing he's always been good at, for example, is not throwing INTs). Coles is a very good WR and better than anyone Portis has played with before and the Redskins have good depth at that position and better than Denver has had the past two seasons. So it's not like Portis has nobody around him. Defenses are obviously going to key on him as they should, but I think the Redskins have enough talent to be, at worst, respectable in the passing game this season. And getting back to an earlier comment about Edge, James has major durability questions also. Since his injury he has yet to play a full season. So he's every bit the risk from an injury standpoint that Portis is

Click to expand...

You made some good points in your previous post in my opinion. They are not my thoughts but certainly valid arguments.

Jamal Lewis played with putrid QBs and worthless WRs and rushed for more than 2,000 yards last season. That was a case of talent prevailing over circumstance. Corey Dillon played on some horrible Cincinnati teams and put up good numbers. Go back to the days of Barry Sanders and Walter Payton playing on bad offenses and putting up huge numbers. How did they do it? Talent. Talent. Talent.

Click to expand...

The fact remains is that we don't know if Portis can go into a mediocre offensive environment and produce top five numbers. And we surely don't know if he can go into a poor offensive environment and put up top five numbers. You can put him in the class of Barry or Walter if you want...I don't.

He's obviously got a long way to go before he joins those two. I'm not trying to get ahead of myself here. As Ron Wolf said, greatness stands the test of time. Portis isn't a Hall of Famer by any means now, but at the rate he's going if he doesn't suffer a major injury of any kind (as Davis did, for example), he will undoubtedly be a Hall of Famer. His numbers in his first two seasons are extremely impressive. And again, 5.5 YPC. That's scary good. You're right, we don't know if the Redskins will be any good this season, but I tell you what, they won't be any worse than they were last year when they had no running game at all and a head coach without a clue about how to construct an NFL offensive scheme. And I like their depth at WR. If Brunell can just be decent, they have a chance to be a productive offense. I certainly think, on paper, the Redskins have more talent in the passing game than the Ravens had last year and I think Portis is a better RB than Lewis and we all saw what Lewis did. Looking back at last season, two of the toughest games Portis had probably came in Weeks 8 and 9 when he faced Baltimore and New England, two of the best run defenses in the league. Playing without Plummer (I think Craig Morton was starting at QB for the Broncos then

), Portis rushed for 197 yards and 1 TD. So in two games against two very good defenses with no real threat of a passing game to help him, Portis still nearly averaged 100 rushing yards a game. That's talent. Granted, that's a very small sample size, but I think it's safe to say Portis won't be facing defenses of that caliber every week this season and it's also safe to say his supporting cast will be better than it was in those two games. So if Portis can succeed with no help around him against stellar defenses, doesn't it stand to reason he'll fare well with an improved environment and facing defenses of lesser caliber throughout the season?

doomsdaydoc · May 15, 2004

Watching Edgerrin early in the season was not at all inspiring me. I regretted that I had drafted him. But when he returned from the back injury, he played like a man possessed. He was starting to break of some longer runs- he was never the "homerun" threat that Ahman Green or Barry Sanders was. He started bulling into defenses and he scored a lot. He seemed to get his burst back toward the end of the season. I think he has the ability to do what he did his first 2 years, but the offense will not depend on him as much now that Peyton has so many more options. This makes James a second level back after Holmes, Green, Tomlinson and probably Portis. AFter that, James is equal to McAllister or Alexander and perhaps a better fantasy play than Lewis because of the receiving yards - and in leagues where there is 1 point per reception.

Floyd The Barber · May 15, 2004

LHUCKS wrote (and many, many others agreed with:

3) Stephen Davis - I understand that his downfall has been predicted since the beginning of man...but this is more of a vote of confidence for Mr. Foster. IMO Foster is one of the top six or seven runningbacks in the league. At the very least this situation becomes a committee...you heard it here first. A committee situation doesn't warrant a #15 ranking. I may be going out on a limb to an extent, but I'm going with the superior talent in this instance, which admittedly doesn't always win out.

What gives ANYONE an indication that this will become a committee situation?As a 2003 owner of SDavis I can tell you without reservation that Davis ran like a man amongst boys last year. A freakin' freight train. They knew it was coming and couldn't stop it. When Foster was in there it was hunt and peck. He ran with very little authority, especially inside.I'll tell you one thing, the guy who missed that tackle on Foster in the Philadelphia playoff game did all of the level-headed sharks a favor. SD is gonna slip into one hell of a value pick this year.Cheers! :banned:

LHUCKS · May 16, 2004

I'm thinking this is the year Davis runs out of gas, and Foster takes over. It's just a matter of when that happens.

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I find it interesting that people are quick to label SDavis as the injury risk compared to Foster when Davis has only missed 9 games in 6 years while Foster has already missed an ENTIRE SEASON.Davis' ypc went UP half a yard last year, so it's not like he's been on a production down slope. (I'm not saying he's a young stud on the rise, just that there does not seem to be evidence of a decline.)

Click to expand...

Davis missed several games four of the last five years. Foster suffered a horrible injury and returned to form after just a year. Davis has established himself as a greater injury risk than Marshal Faulk, while Foster may or may not be an injury risk.And, Foster is not in anywhere near as great a risk category where he is a back sitting behind an injury risk. 2001 is the only year Davis started all 16 games of the year, and 2001 and 1998 are the only two years he played in all 16 games. I'd say that makes him about the biggest injury risk at RB in the entire league.

Exactly Marc. One thing to add, Stephen Davis has a very hard running style which leads to a lot of bone-jarring hits. Deshaun on the other hand is a more instinctive/break-away type runner.

LHUCKS · May 16, 2004

(David Yudkin)]

If you want to go there . . . Joe Gibbs has a system. His lifetime record is 140-65 with 3 Super Bowl championship rings. That system produced a 1,347 yard, 24 rushing TD season for John Riggins. And a 1,203 yard, 18 rushing TD season for George Rogers. And a 1,219 yard, 6 TD season for Gerald Riggs. (Those guys had other solid seasons as well, so "the system" seems to work pretty well.)

Ok, fine. You're assuming Joe Gibbs is going to use a system that he used in the 80's and you're also assuming that that system is going to work. Furthermore, you're forgetting that this is year #1 in that system. So all of the numbers you just wrote about should be taken with a significant grain of salt. Agreed?

So he can have major surgery in addition to numerous other injuries and NOT be considered an injury risk, but Portis' 3 games with an ankle sprain and a bruised chest make him more of a major injury risk?

I never said Portis was a greater injury risk...I just don't believe that Edge is a greater injury risk than is Portis. Please don't put words in my mouth. You must admit at the very least that Portis is a smaller back than Edge and history indicates that smaller backs have a tougher time staying healthy. Agreed? Again I 'm not saying Portis is a greater injury risk, just giving something to chew on. One thing I admire about Portis is that he's a gamer.

Coles went from the Jets to the Skins and matched his fantasy scoring from the year before. In BOTH years, he played with unproven QB. Now he gets to play with a veteran . . . and his numbers will go down?

If your implication is that WR production drops dramatically with a new veteran QB . . . here's how some other stud WR did when a new veteran QB was brought in.

No, that is not my implication. I'm saying that there is risk involved any time a WR has to adjust to a new system/QB/coach. And no, I don't think Brunnel is better than Pennington. Is he better than Ramsey...definitely. Is that enough to avoid the other risk factors...we'll see. I'm betting it will take some time at the very least.

All we have to go on is what Gibbs' teams did in the past. Quoting from my Player Spotlight piece that will be up this week

Yes for tangible statistics, that is all you have to go on. But for a qualitative analysis, you also should take into account the risk factors that I've mentioned. And as for reading articles, you can read my piece titled "The Risk Management Perspective of Fantasy Football"

And yes, I am fully aware that there is nothing at all that says what worked 15 years ago will work in the current NFL. But I happen to think that Gibbs is a coaching mastermind and will come up with a scheme to get the most out of his players.

Now we're getting to the bottom of it. You are conceding that Gibbs is currently an "offensive mastermind" and I'm saying, let's take a wait and see aproach before I rank Portis #5 and Coles #5 on my cheatsheets...ahead of other proven/less risky situations.Good discussion...your WAS players may work out for you.

JAA · May 16, 2004

DeShaun Foster is chronically overrated on this board. Check out the stats at Football Outsiders. They rate him the third-worst RB in the league last year (of those with 75+ carries)

Click to expand...

Are you sure you want to use a complex rankings system that has Rock Cartwright ranked 18th?Colin

Click to expand...

If that's the only strange-looking ranking on the list, then heck yeah. Just because it's complicated doesn't mean it's bad. The one thing these stats do, that no one else does, is stop giving RBs credit for an 8 yard draw play on 3rd and 12. That alone makes it useful when looking at 3rd down backs like Foster, whose stats are going to be completely distorted based on the game situations when he was used.

SHHHH!!!! Someone ma hear you ... and believe you

:rKade:

David Yudkin · May 16, 2004

Yes for tangible statistics, that is all you have to go on. But for a qualitative analysis, you also should take into account the risk factors that I've mentioned. And as for reading articles, you can read my piece titled "The Risk Management Perspective of Fantasy Football"

This is a topic for its own debate. However, most of the time the numbers don't lie. We don't know how things are going to work work the multiplicitude of changes the Skins made, we don't know if the team will have any chemistry, and we don't have any idea at all if the OL will play better. All of those factors will probably scare people away from drafting Redskins players and they may fall some come draft day. (Portis will not fall very far, but the other players might fall a little bit.)However, I think there's a big difference in expected performance levels with run of the mill coaches and coaches that have won multiple Super Bowl titles.Sometimes changes can yield great results (2002 Buffalo), sometimes they don't (2002 Washington).Certainly numbers don't actually "mean" anything, but they do serve as good guidelines for providing the likelihood of things happening again.But you have to admit that the results from Gibbs prior seasons would probably give us a better idea as to what might happen than if they brought in a coach that had never been an NFL coach before.

LHUCKS · May 16, 2004

However, I think there's a big difference in expected performance levels with run of the mill coaches and coaches that have won multiple Super Bowl titles.Sometimes changes can yield great results (2002 Buffalo), sometimes they don't (2002 Washington).Certainly numbers don't actually "mean" anything, but they do serve as good guidelines for providing the likelihood of things happening again.But you have to admit that the results from Gibbs prior seasons would probably give us a better idea as to what might happen than if they brought in a coach that had never been an NFL coach before.

Gibbs' prior season are better than nothing...yes. It's just they were so long ago. Which is why earlier on in the thread I used Vermeil and John Robinson as examples of coaches with long layoffs, whose programs/teams had opposite results when their respective coach came back from a long layoff.My point is that there is too much risk. Your point is that there is less risk because you believe Coach Gibbs is an offensive mastermind and will make the offense good enough right away to support Coles' and Portis' lofty rankings.We will see.

Donnybrook · May 17, 2004

1) Clinton Portis - You've got four proven All-Pros in proven systems ranked lower than Portis: Lewis, Alexander, Williams and Edge. Portis is in a new system with a new QB and with a new coach. Too many variables for my taste. Denver is runningback Nirvana, Washington might be and then again it might not be...I'd rather have a proven commodity that high in the draft. He could explode or he could bust. He needs to explode to justify going #5 overall in drafts...I'll play the odds.

2) Kevin Jones - Well in my QB critique I had Harrington as a sleeper, for many of the same reasons I think Jones will be as well. I'm not huge on taking rookies in re-drafts, but this situation reeks of sleeper: 1) Zero RB competition 2) 1st round Talent 3) Proven Offensive System 4) Nice SOS DIF...even Bryson almost looked like a pro in this offense in '03. Jones should shine.

What is this Proven Offensive System you speak of. Are you taking about San Fran because you certainly can not be talking about Detroit. So on the one hand, you want to de-rate Portis based upon his situation in Washington. (I have no problem with that.) But on the other hand, you want to elevate Kevin Jones because of his immense talent totally ignoring his situation in Detroit.

UNDERRATED:

Kevin Jones - I can't believe that Jones is ranked below the likes of Brian Westbrook, Duce Staley, and Charlie Garner. Those guys are ok, but they all have significant flaws that will probably keep them from being #1 fantasy RB's. Jones is a big time talent who should be his team's workhorse (unless you really think Artose "2.5 YPC" Pinner is the answer). I always say that in fantasy football you need to take chances in order to build great teams. If all you do is draft proven players then you're going to end up with a lot of mediocre players. Sure, Jones isn't proven, but he's a first round RB who is likely to develop into his team's workhorse over the course of next season. He has the potential to be a top 5 RB next year. I can't say the same for many of the guys who are ranked ahead of him. I think he should definitely be one of the first 15 RB's off the board in drafts.

I am assuming the FBG rankings are based upon the upcoming season. If this was a dynasty ranking, I agree, Jones position would be low. But as far as this season goes, I think 23rd is a generous spot. Remember last season, Detroit was ranked last in the league in Rushing with an average of 84 yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry. If Jones singlehandedly takes this team from being the last in the NFL in rushing and to being ranked 23rd overall, I think he would have done an incredible job.

David Yudkin · May 17, 2004

My point is that there is too much risk. Your point is that there is less risk because you believe Coach Gibbs is an offensive mastermind and will make the offense good enough right away to support Coles' and Portis' lofty rankings.

I think QB and coaching changes are somewhat irrelevant when discussing true stud players. I haven't studies this, so I can't give more than an opinion at this point, but look at Randy Moss as an example.He's thrived under multiple personnel changes:Coaches:Green & TiceQB:Cunningham, BJohnson, Culpepper, George, FrerotteWR2:Carter, Bates, CambellWith all those different puzzle pieces, he's still been a stud no matter what the combination.He's just one example, I'm sure I could come up with others . . .

Tau837 · May 17, 2004

I think you're way too high on Brunell -- top 10 fantasy QB? Brunell was never that good in his prime seasons and he had good talent in Jacksonville back in the day

Actually, he was indeed that good 3 times, and just missed two other times. From pro-football-reference.com:

Code:

Year        Value        Pos. Rank    Overall Rank--------------------------------------------------1994           0            54            4321995           0            12             761996         107             5             111997          37             8             421998           0            15             941999           0            14             962000          33             7             462001           7            11             652002           0            16            1552003           0            47            465--------------------------------------------------             184

That said, I'm not sure I would project him in the top 10 this year, though I would also note that there is typically little that separates the 10th QB from the 13th-15th QB, and he will certainly be in the running for a top 15 ranking.

Tau837 · May 17, 2004

I want to go on the record as believing Portis is as close to a lock for top 5 status this season as there is. Right now, I personally would take him #2 in a redraft, behind only Tomlinson, and #1 in a dynasty league.The only thing that could possibly keep him out of the top 5 is injury, IMO. And I don't think anyone here can accurately predict injuries.Sure, Denver's system is good for RBs. No disputing that. But to downplay Portis's accomplishments because of Denver's RB history does not allow for the fact that Portis may have excelled in any system. It completely discounts his talent.Portis had one of the top 5 rookie RB seasons of all time, as I posted in a thread last year. Think about that. Did Mike Anderson have that type of rookie season? No. Did Olandis Gary? No. Did Terrell Davis? No. Did any of those other Denver RBs have that type of second season? No.To those who think Portis is merely a product of the Denver system, do you also feel that way about Terrell Davis?The bottom line is that Portis has been a great runner in his two seasons in the NFL, and now he is going from one team with a coach that has historically been able to get great performances from his running game to another team with a coach that has historically been able to get great performances from his running game. It is certainly a cause for mild concern that Gibbs has been on hiatus, but that is probably offset by two facts: (1) Gibbs hired a veteran staff that has not been out of the league and (2) Portis's new supporting cast will be a slight upgrade from Denver.

Bri · May 17, 2004

If your implication is that WR production drops dramatically with a new veteran QB . . . here's how some other stud WR did when a new veteran QB was brought in.Moulds with Bledsoe added: 100-1287-10Keyshawn with Vinny added: 83-1131-10Michael Jackson with Vinny added: 76-1201-14 Tim Brown with Gannon added: 90-1344-6 Moulds with Flutie added: 67-1368-9 Conway with Flutie added: 71-1125-6Muhammad with Beurlein added: 96-1253-8 Burress with Maddox added: 78-1325-7 Ward with Maddox added: 112-1329-12Westbrook with Brad Johnson added: 65-1191-9Albert Connell with Brad Johnson added: 62-1132-7Keyshawn with Brad Johnson added: 106-1266-1 Moss with Cunningham added: 69-1313-17Moss with George added: 80-1413-11Carter with George added: 90-1241-13 Tim Brown with George added: 104-1408-5 Terrance Matthis with Geroge added: 111-1342-11Rison with Grbac added: 72-1092-7Carter with Moon added: 122-1256-7 Jake Reed with Moon added: 85-1175-4 Galloway with Moon added: 72-1049-12 Toomer with Collins added: 79-1183-6 Herman Moore with Mitchell added: 72-1173-11 Horn with Blake added: 94-1332-8 Those numbers look pretty solid to me, but as I said, I was not sure if teams changing QB were the issue here.

Before that year, Rison ate some crow and his career was "done". Before that he caught passes from Favre, Vinny, and Brunell. He was best 5-6 years before that. Something's wrong or off with him being on this list....regardless....David I don't get your point here. I did but then you kinda "killed it" when you posted the same player twice a few times like Moulds, Carter, Brown etc. lil confused

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