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Who will be the top 5 fantasy defenses this year? (1 Viewer)

JohnnyU

Footballguy
I know it's a crap shoot with defenses from year to year.  Just a step above kickers.  Here are my top 5 for 2021.

1 - Rams

2 - Colts

3 - Steelers

4 - Dolphins

5 - WFT

UPDATE:  I replaced the Ravens with WFT at #5.  I believe the Ravens defense is overrated this year.

 
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I think WFT belongs on the list, and Cleveland might perform well too.
I thought about putting WFT at #5 over the Ravens.  Something in my gut is telling me the Ravens won't be top 5.

ETA:  I put WFT over the Ravens at #5.

 
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NE’s defense is going to be filthy. Lot’s of guys that can blow up plays and get after the QB. Once Gilmore gets back the secondary will be back to Top 5. They also play a lot of young QBs this year, and they usually confuse them. The last time I singled out NE was a couple of years ago and they were a fantasy force. 

 
1. 49ers - if Bosa is 100%, this defense will be menacing. 

2. WFT - Chase might win DPOY

3. Steelers 

4. Colts 

5. NEP

UPDATE:  I replaced the Ravens with WFT at #5.  I believe the Ravens defense is overrated this year.
Agree, especially after losing Peters. That’s a big hit to the secondary. Should still be too 10 though.

 
NE’s defense is going to be filthy. Lot’s of guys that can blow up plays and get after the QB. Once Gilmore gets back the secondary will be back to Top 5. They also play a lot of young QBs this year, and they usually confuse them. The last time I singled out NE was a couple of years ago and they were a fantasy force. 
Two other teams that could creep into the top 5 are NE and Buffalo.  Like I said, it's a crap shoot from one year to the next.

 
I like the Broncos this year, especially in September.

The Chargers have a few rough matchups the first 6 weeks, but I like their post bye schedule.
I like both as streaming defenses.  Not sure either finish as top fantasy defenses however.

 
NE’s defense is going to be filthy. Lot’s of guys that can blow up plays and get after the QB. Once Gilmore gets back the secondary will be back to Top 5. They also play a lot of young QBs this year, and they usually confuse them. The last time I singled out NE was a couple of years ago and they were a fantasy force. 
The NE defense was lights out early in 2019, then weren't quite the same late in the regular season. The Fitzmagic game to put KC in the driver's seat comes to mind. Also, the Jets had Gase and Darnold, while Josh Allen wasn't the Allen of 2020 & 2021. I think Wilson and the Jets are an improvement. Miami has more weapons now, but Tua is still unproven. I think the NE defense will be good, but not like 2019.

 
Surprised not to see tampa on some lists.  Great pass rush and forcing teams into playing from behind is a great situation for fantasy scoring

 
Surprised not to see tampa on some lists.  Great pass rush and forcing teams into playing from behind is a great situation for fantasy scoring
Plus, playing Winston and Darnold twice. And Ryan gets sacked alot.

 
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Surprised not to see tampa on some lists.  Great pass rush and forcing teams into playing from behind is a great situation for fantasy scoring
They looked easy to score on in week 1, but yes, the Bucs are probably a good streaming defense, but I'm not so sure they are top 5.

 
The NE defense was lights out early in 2019, then weren't quite the same late in the regular season. The Fitzmagic game to put KC in the driver's seat comes to mind. Also, the Jets had Gase and Darnold, while Josh Allen wasn't the Allen of 2020 & 2021. I think Wilson and the Jets are an improvement. Miami has more weapons now, but Tua is still unproven. I think the NE defense will be good, but not like 2019.
Through 8 games in 2019, the NE defense averaged 24 ppg when the #3 team in the league was averaging 13. They fell off and were close to average the rest of the way, but they scored triple most teams in the early going.

They may not be that dominating this year, but they should be more consistent this season and good the whole year. They play Tua x 2, Wilson x 2, Darnold, Lawrence, Herbert, and the Texans. That's essentially half their schedule. 

 
Surprised not to see tampa on some lists.  Great pass rush and forcing teams into playing from behind is a great situation for fantasy scoring
I wasn’t that impressed with their secondary in their opener, and Sean Murphy-Bunting dislocated his elbow (ow!) which won’t improve it much. 

Maybe I’ll add them back, but I’m undecided if Dallas was unstoppable or if the Bucs defense just played not great.

If I wrote this list before Thursday I’d have put them at 3 or 4. 

 
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Through 8 games in 2019, the NE defense averaged 24 ppg when the #3 team in the league was averaging 13. They fell off and were close to average the rest of the way, but they scored triple most teams in the early going.

They may not be that dominating this year, but they should be more consistent this season and good the whole year. They play Tua x 2, Wilson x 2, Darnold, Lawrence, Herbert, and the Texans. That's essentially half their schedule. 
That's a good schedule for the NE defense. But Jones is no Brady yet, so there is a risk of more NE turnovers leading to opponent points. Brady only had 8 INTs in 2019.

 
This is a great topic.  It seems every year this is a little topsy turby

1. rams

2. pitt

3. NE

4. 49ers

5.  WFT

 
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The NE defense was lights out early in 2019, then weren't quite the same late in the regular season. The Fitzmagic game to put KC in the driver's seat comes to mind. Also, the Jets had Gase and Darnold, while Josh Allen wasn't the Allen of 2020 & 2021. I think Wilson and the Jets are an improvement. Miami has more weapons now, but Tua is still unproven. I think the NE defense will be good, but not like 2019.
I think basing NE on last year when multiple starters "sat out" is unrelated to predicting 2021. 

LAR, SF & WFT are all likely Top 5 

Clev & NE are my other 2 votes.  

I like Denver early, but don't expect them to sustain the course with KC 2x.

Not sure I like Pitt or Balt as top 5, but certainly as Top 10

 
Dallas is going to score on everyone. That’ll be the best offense Tampa faces all season. 
I’m not sure I completely buy this narrative. 

Same Tampa Bay defense completely shut down hi flying Chiefs in the Super Bowl.

The Cowboys offense is very good. Are they worlds better than the Chiefs? That’s hard for me to believe.

 
I’m not sure I completely buy this narrative. 

Same Tampa Bay defense completely shut down hi flying Chiefs in the Super Bowl.

The Cowboys offense is very good. Are they worlds better than the Chiefs? That’s hard for me to believe.
The Chiefs were shut down in the SB because their starting OL was a mess and couldn't play. Give the Chiefs their starting OL and that game is completely different.

 
The Chiefs were shut down in the SB because their starting OL was a mess and couldn't play. Give the Chiefs their starting OL and that game is completely different.


I think Bucs d is good but i don't think it's great.  They will be top 10 not top 5.  Even last year i thought they got a lot of lucky bounces.  D's can't usually sustain that.  And they don't have that aggressive culture that balt, pitt seem to have

 
The Chiefs were shut down in the SB because their starting OL was a mess and couldn't play. Give the Chiefs their starting OL and that game is completely different.
Possible. I just see Mahomes & Co on par with the Cowboys offense & the Dallas OL isn’t exactly World-beaters. Wasn’t that the whole reason everyone keeps saying they went so pass happy? 

 
This is a great topic.  It seems every year this is a little topsy turby
Code:
	2018	2019	2020	
LAR	2	5	1	8
BAL	3	4	5	12
PIT	13	3	3	19
BUF	5	9	9	23
NEP	7	1	16	24
KCC	6	10	11	27
NOS	14	7	6	27
IND	18	12	2	32
CHI	1	17	19	37
MIN	8	8	25	41
SEA	10	16	15	41
WAS	12	22	7	41
SFO	31	2	10	43
TBB	30	6	8	44
PHI	22	13	13	48
TEN	11	14	27	52
MIA	16	32	4	52
JAC	9	18	28	55
NYJ	19	11	26	56
DEN	17	20	22	59
GBP	24	15	20	59
CAR	27	19	14	60
HOU	4	26	31	61
LAC	15	25	23	63
DAL	21	21	21	63
CLE	23	27	17	67
ARI	25	30	12	67
NYG	29	23	18	70
ATL	28	24	24	76
DET	20	29	32	81
CIN	26	31	29	86
LVR	32	28	30	90
 
NE’s defense is going to be filthy. Lot’s of guys that can blow up plays and get after the QB. Once Gilmore gets back the secondary will be back to Top 5. They also play a lot of young QBs this year, and they usually confuse them. The last time I singled out NE was a couple of years ago and they were a fantasy force. 
Hoping so..had the same ideas about facing young qb’s and after waiting on D while others snatched up the usual thought of top Ds, I invested in the Pats in 2 leagues.

 
Hoping so..had the same ideas about facing young qb’s and after waiting on D while others snatched up the usual thought of top Ds, I invested in the Pats in 2 leagues.


This is also what i am counting on. 

There are two types of D's.  Baltimore that generally is low scoring, will get you sacks every week etc...but not many big plays

The team that catches fire and just disrupts everything.  Big plays, big ints, etc..i feel like NE is built like the second

 
The Buffalo defense should be considered. Top 9 each of the past 3 years and an improved pass rush, plus great offense and they face Tua, Jones and Wilson twice. Plus Darnold and Tyrod once. 

 
Through 8 games in 2019, the NE defense averaged 24 ppg when the #3 team in the league was averaging 13. They fell off and were close to average the rest of the way, but they scored triple most teams in the early going.

They may not be that dominating this year, but they should be more consistent this season and good the whole year. They play Tua x 2, Wilson x 2, Darnold, Lawrence, Herbert, and the Texans. That's essentially half their schedule. 
They were really good, but also note that their opponents in Those 8 games were comically terrible.

 
NE defense will spend more time on the field than previous seasons simply because of Mac Jones - rookie QB with throw more ints, and cause more turnovers than they had last season. the defense will get worn down. yes, they play Miami twice, and we know that they will get the snot beaten out of them @ miami ,just like always. We know Tua looks like a different ( better) QB this camp/preseason. NE also plays:

Saints, Bucs, Jets much improving offense with what looks to be a stud QB in the making ( Wilson), Cowboys - good luck vs. Dak and Co., NE can't score the necessary 45 pts to beat Dallas, @ Chargers with last year's wonderboy, J. Herbert, at panthers not an easy game, Browns at NE - good luck vs. Browns defense how is NE offense going to score 10 pts in this one?! then easy game at Falcons, and then the brutal part of the schedule, where they host Titans ( blowout loss Ten will crush them), at Bills ( another loss), At Colts (and the consensus top 5 Indy defense ),  Bills at Pats - another loss to Buffalo, Jags at Pats , and week 17's game at miami .

I don't see NE's offense coming off the field for large swaths of these games. but from week 10 onward, this is a BRUTAL schedule for NE. and I'm only saying the Falcons game is easy, but many people here think Atl is going to be a good team, if that happens , NE is in trouble on the road is this one - Arthur Smith is the guy who engineered the Titans recent wins over NE.

so it's pretty hard to say NE can be a top 5 defense when they're likely to finish as a 9-8 or 8-9 team this season. I just dont see it. When they have less time of possession because their offense is sluggish and turnover prone, that defense will get worn down as the season goes on. for fantasy purposes this is not a top 5 defense.

1. Rams

2. Cowboys - Dak is the MVP and their offense is going to make teams have to play catch-up, so plenty of INT and sack opportunities

3. Steelers

4. Colts

5. Bucs

We always start the season with somewhat high hopes for WFT - and they ALWAYS disappoint. Dolphins are just outside this list, same with Niners and Bills. 

 
Through 8 games in 2019, the NE defense averaged 24 ppg when the #3 team in the league was averaging 13. They fell off and were close to average the rest of the way, but they scored triple most teams in the early going.

They may not be that dominating this year, but they should be more consistent this season and good the whole year. They play Tua x 2, Wilson x 2, Darnold, Lawrence, Herbert, and the Texans. That's essentially half their schedule. 
Their first half schedule was absolutely ridiculous.  They played Darnold's backup because he had mono.  I'm pretty sure they faced at least 1 more backup QB, if not two.  And all of those opposing offenses were bad even with their starters.

 
1. Rams

2. Cowboys - Dak is the MVP and their offense is going to make teams have to play catch-up, so plenty of INT and sack opportunities

3. Steelers

4. Colts

5. Bucs

We always start the season with somewhat high hopes for WFT - and they ALWAYS disappoint. Dolphins are just outside this list, same with Niners and Bills. 
I don't get the Cowboys pick (homer?).  Wasn't their defense atrocious last year?  What have they done to make you feel they will be the #2 defense?

 
NE defense will spend more time on the field than previous seasons simply because of Mac Jones - rookie QB with throw more ints, and cause more turnovers than they had last season. the defense will get worn down. yes, they play Miami twice, and we know that they will get the snot beaten out of them @ miami ,just like always. We know Tua looks like a different ( better) QB this camp/preseason. NE also plays:

Saints, Bucs, Jets much improving offense with what looks to be a stud QB in the making ( Wilson), Cowboys - good luck vs. Dak and Co., NE can't score the necessary 45 pts to beat Dallas, @ Chargers with last year's wonderboy, J. Herbert, at panthers not an easy game, Browns at NE - good luck vs. Browns defense how is NE offense going to score 10 pts in this one?! then easy game at Falcons, and then the brutal part of the schedule, where they host Titans ( blowout loss Ten will crush them), at Bills ( another loss), At Colts (and the consensus top 5 Indy defense ),  Bills at Pats - another loss to Buffalo, Jags at Pats , and week 17's game at miami .

I don't see NE's offense coming off the field for large swaths of these games. but from week 10 onward, this is a BRUTAL schedule for NE. and I'm only saying the Falcons game is easy, but many people here think Atl is going to be a good team, if that happens , NE is in trouble on the road is this one - Arthur Smith is the guy who engineered the Titans recent wins over NE.

so it's pretty hard to say NE can be a top 5 defense when they're likely to finish as a 9-8 or 8-9 team this season. I just dont see it. When they have less time of possession because their offense is sluggish and turnover prone, that defense will get worn down as the season goes on. for fantasy purposes this is not a top 5 defense.

1. Rams

2. Cowboys - Dak is the MVP and their offense is going to make teams have to play catch-up, so plenty of INT and sack opportunities

3. Steelers

4. Colts

5. Bucs

We always start the season with somewhat high hopes for WFT - and they ALWAYS disappoint. Dolphins are just outside this list, same with Niners and Bills. 
I Agree with most of your NE points, except I think NE will be run first this year.  Double tight ends will be their preferred base offense.  I know Hunter and Smith are better at pass catching than blocking, but both are almost certainly better at blocking than almost any WR out there.  And with the balanced set the opposing defense won't be able to overload one side of the field. 

Damien Harris had the second highest grade according to PFF.  Running more puts less pressure on the rookie QB.  Tom Brady was not a gun slinger early in his career - the won with running and defense.  Plus nobody in the league is running that kind of offense, so people are building the defense to stop the pass - lots of fast little guys.  Bellichick will always zig when the rest of the league zags.

So if NE can control the clock on offense, that does help the defense.

 
He did explain why . . . unless you want more definition than that.
I get it from a playing catch-up perspective, but at the end of the day they are going to give up a lot of points and I couldn't in good faith rank them as a top fantasy defense.

 
I Agree with most of your NE points, except I think NE will be run first this year.  Double tight ends will be their preferred base offense.  I know Hunter and Smith are better at pass catching than blocking, but both are almost certainly better at blocking than almost any WR out there.  And with the balanced set the opposing defense won't be able to overload one side of the field. 

Damien Harris had the second highest grade according to PFF.  Running more puts less pressure on the rookie QB.  Tom Brady was not a gun slinger early in his career - the won with running and defense.  Plus nobody in the league is running that kind of offense, so people are building the defense to stop the pass - lots of fast little guys.  Bellichick will always zig when the rest of the league zags.

So if NE can control the clock on offense, that does help the defense.
That's the narrative that is getting put out there by the sports media, but if the way they've had Jones practicing and playing in the preseason, that's not what they are going to do. Jones has absorbed a ton of the offense and they have him playing with pace and running a fast paced offense (ie, not slow and plodding and not a lot of time in huddles). There have been comparisons that as this stage Jones has a better understanding of the playbook than Brady did at the start of his career (that doesn't mean he is Brady, only that he seems to understand the schemes and complexity a little more).

Jones' interception rate in college was low, his interception rate in training camp was low, his INT rate in the preseason games was non-existent (0 picks). They already trust him to make good decisions. If he throws some picks, it will be from deflections or receivers that missed a catch.

IMO, they will run close to a balanced offense. I think the pass will set up the run. And then the run will set up play action. One of the themes coming out of camp and the coaches this year was them indicating they are going to try to be less predictable. The days of winning by being run heavy have mostly faded away. You can have a good running game, but you still need to be able to pass these days in order to win. We know Jones isn't pulling the ball down and running with it, which is another reason why people are under projecting NE's passing attempts. Unless NE gets so far ahead that they can just run the entire second half of games, I don't see them being able to run 60%+ of the time.

 
Lovie Smith is the new DC for Houston. His mantra has always been about the turnover battle, even at the expense of giving up huge plays. 

Houston is utterly devoid of talent, and can't go toe-to-toe with anyone. It wouldn't be surprising if Lovie blitzes like crazy, and has his guys going for the ball rather than the tackle. That will lead to some gashes on the field but also a decent amount of INT's and fumble recoveries. 

 
Looking for a logical place to ask this and this is the closest I could find so cut me some slack. 🙂

I watched the AZ-TEN game yesterday.  That D line in AZ is scary.  Is there a chance we are missing simething ranking them or is it TEN has no O line?

 
I still like Denver to possibly sneak into the top 5 this year. Upgraded a lot this offseason on the secondary and Fangio knows his D. Also helps that they start the season with a string of smash spots. The games against KC will definitely do some damage though.

 
Looking for a logical place to ask this and this is the closest I could find so cut me some slack. 🙂

I watched the AZ-TEN game yesterday.  That D line in AZ is scary.  Is there a chance we are missing simething ranking them or is it TEN has no O line?
We’ll see how it shakes out, but I’m thinking this may be a product of how bad Ten will be on offense this year more than anything else. All I heard about all offseason was how comically bad Zona’s secondary was going to be this season.

 
Looking for a logical place to ask this and this is the closest I could find so cut me some slack. 🙂

I watched the AZ-TEN game yesterday.  That D line in AZ is scary.  Is there a chance we are missing simething ranking them or is it TEN has no O line?
The D Line or Chandler Jones? Jones ate Lewans lunch for 5 of the 6 sacks. I don't think they are a good defense. 

 
My question is who will be the surprise waiver wire defense this year.

Every year there is at least one undrafted defense that surprises every one.

Personally I always draft defenses late, late, late because I know a WW D will emerge. I choose to stream and hope I can find that defensive gem that emerges.

In my league the Chargers are on the WW and they have Dallas and are at KC the next two weeks. Honestly their schedule before their week 7 bye is mostly rough but I think as long as Bosa and James are on the field they will be a force. With Staley and a top offense they could finish top 5 overall, at least post bye.

On my wire I now also like Seattle after how they handled the Colts on the road. They are another well coached team with a.strong offense that will put pressure on opposing teams to keep up. However, unlike the Chargers there are no easy outs in the NFC West. Mahomes withstanding, Carr & Bridgewater are not Murray, Stafford and SFQB.

WHo is on your wire that you think could emerge as a top fantasy defense?

 
My question is who will be the surprise waiver wire defense this year.

Every year there is at least one undrafted defense that surprises every one.

Personally I always draft defenses late, late, late because I know a WW D will emerge. I choose to stream and hope I can find that defensive gem that emerges.

In my league the Chargers are on the WW and they have Dallas and are at KC the next two weeks. Honestly their schedule before their week 7 bye is mostly rough but I think as long as Bosa and James are on the field they will be a force. With Staley and a top offense they could finish top 5 overall, at least post bye.

On my wire I now also like Seattle after how they handled the Colts on the road. They are another well coached team with a.strong offense that will put pressure on opposing teams to keep up. However, unlike the Chargers there are no easy outs in the NFC West. Mahomes withstanding, Carr & Bridgewater are not Murray, Stafford and SFQB.

WHo is on your wire that you think could emerge as a top fantasy defense?
Saints

 
My question is who will be the surprise waiver wire defense this year.

Every year there is at least one undrafted defense that surprises every one.

Personally I always draft defenses late, late, late because I know a WW D will emerge. I choose to stream and hope I can find that defensive gem that emerges.

In my league the Chargers are on the WW and they have Dallas and are at KC the next two weeks. Honestly their schedule before their week 7 bye is mostly rough but I think as long as Bosa and James are on the field they will be a force. With Staley and a top offense they could finish top 5 overall, at least post bye.

On my wire I now also like Seattle after how they handled the Colts on the road. They are another well coached team with a.strong offense that will put pressure on opposing teams to keep up. However, unlike the Chargers there are no easy outs in the NFC West. Mahomes withstanding, Carr & Bridgewater are not Murray, Stafford and SFQB.

WHo is on your wire that you think could emerge as a top fantasy defense?
Off this week definitely have to think about the Cardinals and Saints.  But I'm with you on the streaming part, which is why I targeted Denver in my draft for weeks 1-3, and then I'll deal with the rest later.  Patriots would be worth a look once Gilmore is back.  But unless we're talking the '85 Bears I'm not carrying a second DST to cover a bye week, which is another reason I am streaming at least at the start of the season.

 

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