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RB Dud’s!! (1 Viewer)

M

Mongidig

Footballguy
I’ve never seen such low point totals for RB’s taken in the first couple rounds. I didn’t get to see all the games so I’m hoping to here some explanations. 
 

1) Zeke….I didn’t expect much in this matchup. If points were given for blocking and playing the decoy Zeke would be RB1 this week.

2) Derrick Henry….Game script?
 

3) Aaron Jones…What the?
 

4) Austin Ekeler….Hammy?
 

5) Saquan….Tough matchup/Coming back from injury?
 

6) Naji Harris…..Bad offensive line/rookie?
 

7) Antonio Gibson…Wasn’t playing Dallas?

Eight) CEH……Was there a breeze? Did the wind blow him down?

I had to spell “eight” because the number doesn’t work on my computer. 
 

This wasn’t in order f awfulness. 
 

 
Najee was facing a good defense. Also new oline. He had 2 TD chances on pass receptions near the GL. On one, Ben made a bad throw. On the other, he couldn't break a tackle. I would panick if he doesn't have a good game vs the Bengals next week.

 
SoBeDad said:
Najee was facing a good defense. Also new oline. He had 2 TD chances on pass receptions near the GL. On one, Ben made a bad throw. On the other, he couldn't break a tackle. I would panick if he doesn't have a good game vs the Bengals next week.
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Watching him...he needs to get out of that college mindset quick.  He ran a few of those GL opportunities and the one reception as if he could run away from the D.  Rather than attack even a small hole.  Understandable especially with a quick aggressive D and a rookie.  Hoping it gets better and LV should be a much easier matchup. (not the Bengals...thats week 3)

 
I think the biggest disappointment for me was Harris/Pittsburgh O-line. He was facing a below average run defense and the game script fit Pitt being able to run the ball. I get the rookie thing but he didn't look good week 1. 

Henry/Zeke/Jones: Were all definitely a disappointment stat wise, but the game script (Henry/Jones) or matchups just weren't there (Zeke/Jones). I have hopes they can bounce back from the efforts we saw in week 1. 

I wouldn't call Gibson a disappointment, he had 20 carriers for 90 yards and 3 rec for 18 yards. He did fumble which didnt help, but he was decent. Even Ekeler wasnt terrible: 15-57 and a TD. 

 
A. Jones never got the chance. GB fell behind fast and Rodgers was just atrocious. Picks and bad decisions, etc...so really, he never settled into his usual workload. I think you can't really take anything in terms of info from this game for A. Jones. One of those horrible games from GB and he was pretty much a none factor from the start. I think he's fine.

 
Mongidig said:
7) Antonio Gibson…Wasn’t playing Dallas?
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Clearly your 7 key is working, so you should have just stuck with that number. GIbson had 100 YFS against a decent D with a backup QB playing half the game. If Fitz misses time that's a concern going forward for the entire offense, but Gibson did fine last year with bad QB play. Nowhere near the concern level of some of these other guys.

Though speaking more generally, I don't see a huge reason to panic on any of these guys after one week. Monitor going forward, sure. Freak out if this continues for a couple more weeks, definitely. But for now, stay water.

 
ignatiusjreilly said:
Clearly your 7 key is working, so you should have just stuck with that number. GIbson had 100 YFS against a decent D with a backup QB playing half the game. If Fitz misses time that's a concern going forward for the entire offense, but Gibson did fine last year with bad QB play. Nowhere near the concern level of some of these other guys.

Though speaking more generally, I don't see a huge reason to panic on any of these guys after one week. Monitor going forward, sure. Freak out if this continues for a couple more weeks, definitely. But for now, stay water.
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I’m a little harsh on Gibson based on the hive mind expectations. People think he’s gonna be a top 5 back. I think he ends up in the third round next year. He’s a nice player. 

 
Henry had several opportunities on short and goal but the blocking was horrible and he was hit in the backfield. Had he scored, we wouldn't be talking about him.

Gibson was ok but not great. The QB situation there is a real concern though. 

 
ignatiusjreilly said:
Clearly your 7 key is working, so you should have just stuck with that number. GIbson had 100 YFS against a decent D with a backup QB playing half the game. If Fitz misses time that's a concern going forward for the entire offense, but Gibson did fine last year with bad QB play. Nowhere near the concern level of some of these other guys.

Though speaking more generally, I don't see a huge reason to panic on any of these guys after one week. Monitor going forward, sure. Freak out if this continues for a couple more weeks, definitely. But for now, stay water.
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Heineke will be fine. Might be better then Fitz (though hot Fitz is as good as anyone, cold Fitz is worse then almost anyone)

ETA: Though expecting RB1 numbers from Gibson was a mistake IMO....solid RB2 numbers was my expectation, and still is

 
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Leroy Hoard said:
Anarchy99 said:
The last three times Henry had under 65 yards rushing, the following week he had 188, 212, and 215 yards. 
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I like this stat. I just hope they keep it close enough where they keep feeding him.
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Too early to tell, but this could more of an issue than in past years. The Titans defense has historically been solid enough for positive game scripts for Henry to get a lot of touches. If they start getting into shootouts, we could see a much more pass-oriented offense than what we're used to. And while Henry can catch the ball, that may take him off the field more than usual.

 
The departure of Arthur Smith.    How concerned should we be about this when assessing Henry's outlook?   The Derrick Henry fantasy football narrative completely changed when Smith became OC in 2019.

I kind of figured Vrabel was smart enough to get someone in place to run the same things that made that unit successful, and that talent would carry the day.  But that wasn't the week 1 I was hoping for to put my mind at ease.

 
Timmay said:
I think the biggest disappointment for me was Harris/Pittsburgh O-line. He was facing a below average run defense and the game script fit Pitt being able to run the ball. I get the rookie thing but he didn't look good week 1. 

Henry/Zeke/Jones: Were all definitely a disappointment stat wise, but the game script (Henry/Jones) or matchups just weren't there (Zeke/Jones). I have hopes they can bounce back from the efforts we saw in week 1. 

I wouldn't call Gibson a disappointment, he had 20 carriers for 90 yards and 3 rec for 18 yards. He did fumble which didnt help, but he was decent. Even Ekeler wasnt terrible: 15-57 and a TD. 
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Is this based on last year or something?  The players Buffalo has are really good defenders and their defense should be one of the top defenses.  I wouldn't consider them below average at all. 

 
Mongidig said:
Eight) CEH……Was there a breeze? Did the wind blow him down?
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I hardly see his workload & usage in the pass game as a "dud". A TD would have solidified his day, but he was out there for the vast majority of plays and showed well. It just happened to be a shootout kinda game. McKinnon & Williams were total non-factors in this game, and even the negative game script when down a couple of scores didn't take CEH off the field.

IMO that sort of usage is what can make CEH elite, and is exactly what CEH share-holders were hoping for. Against a tough Brown run defense I thought CEH looked just fine, and that he's heavily involve in the receiving game makes him a great buy-low if anyone in your league feels the same about him as you seem to. 

 
CEH got every running snap except one when he was getting a breather and every rb passing snap including during the kc come from behind drive in the 4th.  The game script just wasn't there to feed him, which will be an issue all season with kcs horrible d, but he fought for extra yards and did well in following the blocks from the new offensive line.

 
renesauz said:
Heineke will be fine. Might be better then Fitz (though hot Fitz is as good as anyone, cold Fitz is worse then almost anyone)

ETA: Though expecting RB1 numbers from Gibson was a mistake IMO....solid RB2 numbers was my expectation, and still is
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IMO Gibson's numbers stand to increase with Heineke, due to his mobility. Defenses will have to account for that, whereas with Fitz, no need to spy a statue. So now there's a S or LB hanging around the middle of the field, opening up lanes for the RB.

Fitz going down is probably bad news for WFT pass catchers, but it's great news for Gibson. 

One man's take. 

 
CEH looked like CEH will look. Average with great opportunities. 

Those opportunities will diminish if he doesn't show. He's small, slow, easy to tackle. Bad pick by KC in the first round. 

Look at D'Andre Swift yesterday. That's about all you need to know. 

 
wgoldsph said:
CEH got every running snap except one when he was getting a breather and every rb passing snap including during the kc come from behind drive in the 4th.  The game script just wasn't there to feed him, which will be an issue all season with kcs horrible d, but he fought for extra yards and did well in following the blocks from the new offensive line.
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All of this. Also worth noting, CEH appears to be well ahead of everyone not named Hill or Kelce in the pecking order for receptions. Hardman & Pringle were both tragically afterthoughts, even when the game script should have made them larger factors. To me that's a positive sign for CEH going forward as well. 

 
zamboni said:
Too early to tell, but this could more of an issue than in past years. The Titans defense has historically been solid enough for positive game scripts for Henry to get a lot of touches. If they start getting into shootouts, we could see a much more pass-oriented offense than what we're used to. And while Henry can catch the ball, that may take him off the field more than usual.
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Last year they were 29th in defensive DVOA, ahead of only Jax, Houston and Detroit. The two prior years they were better, but still in the bottom half of the league.

 
Gally said:
Is this based on last year or something?  The players Buffalo has are really good defenders and their defense should be one of the top defenses.  I wouldn't consider them below average at all. 
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You bet. Buffalo rush defense was by far their worst attribute on defense all of last year and they were below average all year (ranked 20th overall in rush). They didn't add much in the offseason to help in the rush defense category either, so I'd imagine many people would expect the Bills rush defense to again be one of their main downfalls on defense all season. Harris and the Steelers OLine did nothing to attack this. 

 
ignatiusjreilly said:
zamboni said:
Too early to tell, but this could more of an issue than in past years. The Titans defense has historically been solid enough for positive game scripts for Henry to get a lot of touches. If they start getting into shootouts, we could see a much more pass-oriented offense than what we're used to. And while Henry can catch the ball, that may take him off the field more than usual.
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Last year they were 29th in defensive DVOA, ahead of only Jax, Houston and Detroit. The two prior years they were better, but still in the bottom half of the league.
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Fair points. Perhaps more accurate is that they typically have not been blown out of games in years past. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I hardly see his workload & usage in the pass game as a "dud". A TD would have solidified his day, but he was out there for the vast majority of plays and showed well. It just happened to be a shootout kinda game. McKinnon & Williams were total non-factors in this game, and even the negative game script when down a couple of scores didn't take CEH off the field.

IMO that sort of usage is what can make CEH elite, and is exactly what CEH share-holders were hoping for. Against a tough Brown run defense I thought CEH looked just fine, and that he's heavily involve in the receiving game makes him a great buy-low if anyone in your league feels the same about him as you seem to. 
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I think it’s a dud compared to what people are hoping for. I don’t know how CEH has a path to being an elite back. He isn’t gonna be used at the goal line. He goes down way too easily. He’ll have good games but what you saw yesterday is mostly what you’re gonna get. I watched the whole game yesterday. If I was a CEH owner I would be concerned if he was my starter. This offense funnels through Kelce and Tyreek. 

 
Mongidig said:
I think it’s a dud compared to what people are hoping for. I don’t know how CEH has a path to being an elite back.
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Dominating workload, carries & receptions. Seems like a pretty clear path to me. 

Mongidig said:
He isn’t gonna be used at the goal line.
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We don't actually know this. No RB was used at the GL yesterday, but CEH was the RB in all RZ opportunities. 

 
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rockaction said:
It’s my gut feeling mixed with the knowledge that I’m not a scout or evaluator  of pro talent. I am missing something, it seems. Because I’ve always seen a small slow guy. 
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I saw a small slow guy with great vision who ran angry and had the trust of the greatest qb in the game.  He's first in carries third in targets on that offense and doesn't need to be special.

 
rockaction said:
CEH looked like CEH will look. Average with great opportunities. 

Those opportunities will diminish if he doesn't show. He's small, slow, easy to tackle. Bad pick by KC in the first round. 

Look at D'Andre Swift yesterday. That's about all you need to know. 
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Ya, I agree.  I always come away unimpressed when I watch him.  To me, it's a matter of time until someone better comes along and gets more than just average production in the best offense in football.

 
Banger said:
Ya, I agree.  I always come away unimpressed when I watch him.  To me, it's a matter of time until someone better comes along and gets more than just average production in the best offense in football.
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They had Swift, sitting there at thrity-two, ready to do exactly what they wanted. Run hard enough to scare teams, catch the ball on routes when needed. Swift ran a 4.48 and had a wonderful combine.

Instead, they went with the guy that ran a 4.6+ and caught Mahomes's eye on film because they could line him up wide. I was screaming, "Hey guys, you're not in college anymore!"

Swift was better in every test, at every phase of the game. He's just maybe -- maybe -- less durable, though CEH has been no model of durability thus far, either.

 
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rockaction said:
Instead, they went with the guy that ran a 4.6+ and caught Mahomes's eye on film because they could line him up wide. I was screaming, "Hey guys, you're not in college anymore!"
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I know this is a popular narrative, and I do believe Mahomes had influence on the decision, but if anyone believes Andy Reid didn’t do his own due diligence & make the final decision on what running back to bring in, i have a bridge to sell them (it’s long & orange and has great views of San Francisco!)

Mahomes may well like CEH, but Andy Reid drafted him. Make no mistake about it. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
I know this is a popular narrative, and I do believe Mahomes had influence on the decision, but if anyone believes Andy Reid didn’t do his own due diligence & make the final decision on what running back to bring in, i have a bridge to sell them (it’s long & orange and has great views of San Feancisco!)

Mahomes may well like CEH, but Andy Reid drafted him. Make no mistake about it.
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The GM drafted him. GMs like to have input into personnel, too. And Andy Reid is fallible.

 
rockaction said:
The GM drafted him. GMs like to have input into personnel, too. And Andy Reid is fallible.
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I didn’t say Reid wasn’t infallible. 

I just keep seeing people claim CEH is only on the Chiefs because Mahomes wanted him & I find that to be a simplistic & inaccurate narrative. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I didn’t say Reid wasn’t infallible. 

I just keep seeing people claim CEH is only on the Chiefs because Mahomes wanted him & I find that to be a simplistic & inaccurate narrative. 
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It's the same way I feel when people rely on the narrative that Andy Reid hand-picked him. The GM was ecstatic in the exit interviews. Reid was much more subdued, though he did call him better than Westbrook.

We haven't seen that at all yet. Perhaps he needs time. I'd say he needs a step or two.

 
rockaction said:
It's the same way I feel when people rely on the narrative that Andy Reid hand-picked him. The GM was ecstatic in the exit interviews. Reid was much more subdued, though he did call him better than Westbrook.

We haven't seen that at all yet. Perhaps he needs time. I'd say he needs a step or two.
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Don’t disagree with you here. 

And I’m guilty of saying Andy Reid hand picked him as well, because IMO that’s more likely than Mahomes doing it. 
:)  

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Don’t disagree with you here. 

And I’m guilty of saying Andy Reid hand picked him as well, because IMO that’s more likely than Mahomes doing it. 
:)  
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Yeah, it's much more likely that Reid picked him. What's most likely? That the GM, coach, and franchise player all got together, which is totally healthy for the organization, all talked about it, and wound up with the wrong guy. It happens.

eta* Reminds me of the title to that book, The Smartest Men In The Room. Sometimes you get three guys together, and they just flat think they're in the know about everything because of a huge success, and they proceed to miss the obvious signs and put themselves in a position of decline.

They would have been much better off going o-line in that first round. And if they were determined to take a back, Jonathan Taylor had the college resume and testing. Swift had the competition scouting and testing. Edwards-Helaire had a good game against 'Bama. (And others, but you get my point. Helaire was all film. All film. No testing. No resume. Nothing.)

 
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rockaction said:
Yeah, it's much more likely that Reid picked him. What's most likely? That the GM, coach, and franchise player all got together, which is totally healthy for the organization, all talked about it, and wound up with the wrong guy. It happens.
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Yep. Or we see a few more games and CEH looks good and it wound up they got the right guy.

seems a bit early in his career to shovel so much dirt on his grave. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Yep. Or we see a few more games and CEH looks good and it wound up they got the right guy.

seems a bit early in his career to shovel so much dirt on his grave. 
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Running backs get dirt thrown on them early, but I agree with you. The problem is that in fantasy (especially redraft) you can only stem the tide for so long before you're out of the playoffs.

My gripe with CEH isn't that he isn't reasonably competent, but that there were probably at least three guys in that draft I would have drafted over him easily, and there were likely five that were better.

 
Right now, in retrospect and without injury, you would pick Taylor, Swift, Akers, Dobbins, and Gibson all over CEH if you're watching the game and unbiased.

 
rockaction said:
My gripe with CEH isn't that he isn't reasonably competent, but that there were probably at least three guys in that draft I would have drafted over him easily, and there were likely five that were better.
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Believe me, I was glad Mixon fell to 2.12, because I was reasonably sure I’d be rockin CEH as my RB2 paired with CMC. 

 
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