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Which of the week 1 breakouts crashes back to Earth? (1 Viewer)

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I remember when Hollywood Brown blew up game 1 a couple years back & folks scrambled to make him the #1 waiver claim. 

That…didn’t work out so well.

Who of the breakout week 1 players is destined to disappoint week 2 & beyond? 

Examples:

Will Winston be forced to throw more, exposing his flaws? 

Will the 49ers work in Hasty more, lowering late round Mitchell’s ceiling? Was his game so strong because the Lions D is so bad? 

Who’s your candidate for week 2 regression who’ll prove to be a waste of FAAB or claim priority?

 
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I remember when Hollywood Brown blew up game 1 last year & folks scrambled to make him the #1 waiver claim. 

That…didn’t work out so well.

Who of the breakout week 1 players is destined to disappoint week 2 & beyond? 

Examples:

Will Winston be forced to throw more, exposing his flaws? 

Will the 49ers work in Hasty more, lowering late round Mitchell’s ceiling? Was his game so strong because the Lions D is so bad? 

Who’s your candidate for week 2 regression who’ll prove to be a waste of FAAB or claim priority?
Hollywood Brown blew up one game two years ago, bro. It's all running together, ain't it.

I'd say both Christian Kirk and another hot waiver claim -- or somebody who might be -- David Njoku are going to come back to earth.

I'm not on you today, you're just in my CEH wheelhouse and I personally blew a bunch of FAAB on Brown that year.

 
Elijah Mitchell feels like a good choice. I think his game was mostly Detroit based. He's worth a pickup, but I wouldn't use very much FAAB to do so.  Also at RB, I doubt anybody but the truly desperate are looking to pick him up, but I feel very confident that will be Mark Ingram's best game of the season.

Juwan Johnson feels like a good candidate as well. 67% of your catches being Td's feels highly unsustainable, as does Winston throwing 5 TD's, though I don't think Winston will be a bad pickup at all, if you are expecting to have a QB2. 

 
Also at RB, I doubt anybody but the truly desperate are looking to pick him up, but I feel very confident that will be Mark Ingram's best game of the season.


I think that’s a great call. Dude’s 31. Can he reasonably be expected to have that sort of workload?  They won’t face the Jags every week either, so I doubt he’d be as productive even if he did. 

 
damien harris - it'll be Stevenson next week, then some other guy in week 3. he had one big run but looked average the rest of the game. 

David Montgomery

TJ Hockenson

Amari Cooper

 
damien harris - it'll be Stevenson next week, then some other guy in week 3. he had one big run but looked average the rest of the game. 

David Montgomery

TJ Hockenson

Amari Cooper
Three of those four have done this many times before and Harris looked good last year but didn't have the volume.   These seem like bad choices since these type of games are not flukes for them. 

 
Elijah Mitchell feels like a good choice. I think his game was mostly Detroit based. He's worth a pickup, but I wouldn't use very much FAAB to do so.  Also at RB, I doubt anybody but the truly desperate are looking to pick him up, but I feel very confident that will be Mark Ingram's best game of the season.

Juwan Johnson feels like a good candidate as well. 67% of your catches being Td's feels highly unsustainable, as does Winston throwing 5 TD's, though I don't think Winston will be a bad pickup at all, if you are expecting to have a QB2. 
I could see Mitchell being good, and I can see him being Jonas Gray’d 

I am in the camp that says he will be a decent yet unreliable flex play all year….

 
I could see Mitchell being good, and I can see him being Jonas Gray’d 

I am in the camp that says he will be a decent yet unreliable flex play all year….
Here's my take as a Niners homer: Mostert out until week 8. 

Until then it will be some combination of Mitchell & Hasty. After week 8 the Niners also get Jeffrey Wilson back. And then it'll be a mess all season, albeit a productive mess.

There's a reason there are no 49ers on my redraft roster. 

 
I'd say both Christian Kirk and another hot waiver claim -- or somebody who might be -- David Njoku are going to come back to earth.

I'm not on you today, you're just in my CEH wheelhouse and I personally blew a bunch of FAAB on Brown that year.
Yeah, I would bet a lot that Kirk and Njoku end up being replacement level players for most of the season. There is usually a hot take thread about we have learned week 1 and I reply with some reminders of week 1 the year prior. Here's some stat lines from week 1 2020:

Darius Slayton 6/102/2

Justin Jefferson 2/26

Keenan Allen 4/37

Josh Jacobs 4/139/3

Malcolm Brown 3/109/2

Antonio Gibson 2/44

Nick Chubb 1/60

Matt Ryan 450/2

Minshew 173/3 

 
damien harris - it'll be Stevenson next week, then some other guy in week 3. he had one big run but looked average the rest of the game. 

David Montgomery

TJ Hockenson

Amari Cooper
Lol

All these guys looked fantastic and all have had fantastic track records already in this league except maybe Harris. However Stevenson also fumbled so I doubt much changes.

 
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You laugh, but Goff was top #15 overall in all of my leagues and as high as #6.


QB3 in three of my leagues and QB5 in the other.

I laughed bc I don’t presume people to be stupid - people aren’t gonna be blowing FABB on Goff anymore than they would Tyrod Taylor. He had 206 yards on his first 39 PA, and 16 of his first 18 completions were to RBs or TEs. It’s obvious he cannot push the ball downfield. I don’t think most players are silly enough to think the garbage time he put up in the last 5 minutes is sustainable. Maybe some, but not for the majority. IMO

 
QB3 in three of my leagues and QB5 in the other.

I laughed bc I don’t presume people to be stupid - people aren’t gonna be blowing FABB on Goff anymore than they would Tyrod Taylor. He had 206 yards on his first 39 PA, and 16 of his first 18 completions were to RBs or TEs. It’s obvious he cannot push the ball downfield. I don’t think most players are silly enough to think the garbage time he put up in the last 5 minutes is sustainable. Maybe some, but not for the majority. IMO
Depends how desperate they are for a bottom-end QB that's likely on FA. 

 
Here's my take as a Niners homer: Mostert out until week 8. 

Until then it will be some combination of Mitchell & Hasty. After week 8 the Niners also get Jeffrey Wilson back. And then it'll be a mess all season, albeit a productive mess.

There's a reason there are no 49ers on my redraft roster. 
I thought the earliest Wilson could come back was Week 8 . . . but his recovery could take 6 months from the time he was injured. I believe he got hurt the last week of May . . . 6 months from then would be Week 11. It was never specified if that meant he could come back and start practicing then or if he could suit up and play in games by then. Either way, it's unlikely he will be in game shape whenever he comes back, so there will likely be a ramp up period for him to get up to speed. I am not sure he will have a big role this year.

 
QB3 in three of my leagues and QB5 in the other.

I laughed bc I don’t presume people to be stupid - people aren’t gonna be blowing FABB on Goff anymore than they would Tyrod Taylor. He had 206 yards on his first 39 PA, and 16 of his first 18 completions were to RBs or TEs. It’s obvious he cannot push the ball downfield. I don’t think most players are silly enough to think the garbage time he put up in the last 5 minutes is sustainable. Maybe some, but not for the majority. IMO
Agree with all of this, though he may be facing a lot of garbage time this season... as a 2nd QB you could do worse I think. I wouldn't put FAAB on him but I may put a $0 bid to give me some depth. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
I thought the earliest Wilson could come back was Week 8 . . . but his recovery could take 6 months from the time he was injured. I believe he got hurt the last week of May . . . 6 months from then would be Week 11. It was never specified if that meant he could come back and start practicing then or if he could suit up and play in games by then. Either way, it's unlikely he will be in game shape whenever he comes back, so there will likely be a ramp up period for him to get up to speed. I am not sure he will have a big role this year.
Wilson had a meniscus repair. Last I heard he was on track to return when eligible. 

Where are you seeing 6 months? 

 
Wilson had a meniscus repair. Last I heard he was on track to return when eligible. 

Where are you seeing 6 months? 
RB Jeff Wilson Jr. (knee)

Wilson’s torn meniscus is one of the most bizarre injuries in recent memories. He was in the locker room after a weight-lifting session, his knee locked up on him and his meniscus was torn. It won’t keep him out for the season, but his four-to-six month timeline puts him back in action by late October at the earliest and late December at the latest.

LINK

As I mentioned, I haven't seen any description of what 4 to 6 months means (ie ready to play in games then or ready to start practicing then).

 
RB Jeff Wilson Jr. (knee)

Wilson’s torn meniscus is one of the most bizarre injuries in recent memories. He was in the locker room after a weight-lifting session, his knee locked up on him and his meniscus was torn. It won’t keep him out for the season, but his four-to-six month timeline puts him back in action by late October at the earliest and late December at the latest.

LINK

As I mentioned, I haven't seen any description of what 4 to 6 months means (ie ready to play in games then or ready to start practicing then).
Oh, from the time of the injury - sorry, yes.

what I’ve heard is he’s on track to come back week 9.

 
I think people are being quick assume the SF backfield will be a mess all season.

What exists ATM is they have 3 backs for the next 7 weeks at the minimum.

Mitchell planted his flag and will likely be first man up, and deservedly so.

Hasty got one carry, sure it was a TD but Shanny has a history of getting cute near the goal line, so I put zero confidence in the idea that Hasty is being designated the short yardage guy.

Shanahan, and family have a history of top production from the RB spot, Mitchell is first man up but Sermon will absolutely have opportunities to seize that position over the next 7-8 weeks.

 
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I think people are being quick assume the SF backfield will be a mess all season.

What exists ATM is they have 3 backs for the next 7 weeks at the minimum.

Mitchell planted his flag and will likely be first man up, and deservedly so.

Hasty got one carry, sure it was a TD but Shanny has a history of getting cute near the goal line, so I put zero confidence in the idea that Hasty is being designated the short yardage guy.

Shanahan, and family have a history of top production from the RB spot, Mitchell is first man up but Sermon will absolutely have opportunities to seize that position over the next 7-8 weeks.
Imo it's 2

It's between Mitchell and Sermon. I don't think Hasty is even in consideration for a lot of touches.

 
Generally speaking, I agree.

But you never know. Sermon being a healthy scratch clouds the situation. That happened for a reason.
I would assume that Sermon will be active next week, even if just as a body to replace Mostert.  I would also assume that the job is Mitchell's for now, but would get a short leash if he fumbled or made a big mistake in pass pro, something that is likely for any rookie.  Also unless Sermon is a behavior problem he would get every opportunity at least in practice to compete for the top job.

 
I would assume that Sermon will be active next week, even if just as a body to replace Mostert.  I would also assume that the job is Mitchell's for now, but would get a short leash if he fumbled or made a big mistake in pass pro, something that is likely for any rookie.  Also unless Sermon is a behavior problem he would get every opportunity at least in practice to compete for the top job.
Agree on all counts.

I believe Shanahan has already said Sermon will be active next week.

 
Imo it's 2

It's between Mitchell and Sermon. I don't think Hasty is even in consideration for a lot of touches.
Yet Shanahan had Hasty on the final 53, and kept Sermon inactive. 

He followed that decision by saying (basically) that it was a meritocracy, and it didn't matter what anyone was paid or where they were drafted. He so much as said Sermon wasn't good enough. I don't know if that's a pass pro issue, or a maturity issue or something in his running (vision), or learning the playbook - but something kept Sermon out. 

Hasty is the RB2 right now, so he's definitely in consideration for touches. 

With the Mostert injury I think there's a path to Sermon's opportunities increasing, but time will tell. It's always difficult to predict what Shanahanigans will do. 

 
Yet Shanahan had Hasty on the final 53, and kept Sermon inactive. 

He followed that decision by saying (basically) that it was a meritocracy, and it didn't matter what anyone was paid or where they were drafted. He so much as said Sermon wasn't good enough. I don't know if that's a pass pro issue, or a maturity issue or something in his running (vision), or learning the playbook - but something kept Sermon out. 

Hasty is the RB2 right now, so he's definitely in consideration for touches. 

With the Mostert injury I think there's a path to Sermon's opportunities increasing, but time will tell. It's always difficult to predict what Shanahanigans will do. 
Yeah and when the Mostert injury happened, Hasty still got 1 carry

 
Here's my take as a Niners homer: Mostert out until week 8. 

Until then it will be some combination of Mitchell & Hasty. After week 8 the Niners also get Jeffrey Wilson back. And then it'll be a mess all season, albeit a productive mess.

There's a reason there are no 49ers on my redraft roster. 
But what % of FAAB would you throw at Mitchell in a dynasty? 

 
But what % of FAAB would you throw at Mitchell in a dynasty? 
Oof. 

Hard call. Maybe 5-10%? And that probably won't be enough because of week 1's performance.  

Depends on your level of need, really. IMO he's a short term value, and I have a hard time even gauging that value. Sermon should work into the mix, and I believe it'll be a rotational backfield. 

 
Hasty and Mitchell play special teams. Sermon does not. Mostert was the starter and they didn't want four active RBs. So Sermon was inactive.
There was more to it than that though.  It wasn't only about ST. Per Shanny: 

"You can only get three guys up and it's not an easy decision, but that's part of the NFL. It's a matter of time. We haven't gone through a year here where we haven't started at least four different backs. Now we're into Week 2 and he's up regardless and I expect him to come in and play at a high level and keep getting better. There is a reason why we drafted him. We have a lot of confidence in him."

So Elijah Mitchell is the reason Shanahan elected to place Sermon inactive. Both players dealt with injuries, yet one player was able to make more of their opportunities than the other. It ended up working out for the 49ers against the Lions as Mitchell rushed for 104 yards on 19 carries and a score. 


Sounds like he's saying Mitchell out-played Sermon, and got the gig. 

Now Sermon will be promoted by default. 

 
If he's on your dynasty waiver, he's a must add.  Mostert and Wilson are on one year deals.

 

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