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"Unfavorable Matchup" (1 Viewer)

Quilman83

Footballguy
FBG Sean Settle -

"WR Terry McLaurin (WAS vs NYG) vs James Bradberry

Bradberry is one of the best cover corners in the league and the Giants added Adoree’ Jackson on the other side. Even if Bradberry does not travel with McLaurin it is a very tough matchup. The Giants allowed the 3rd fewest points to outside receivers last week and held Courtland Sutton to 1 catch for 14 yards. McLaurin had success against the Giants last season, but that came against different coverage. McLaurin is the top target in this offense and will still see his share, but temper expectations on his overall production this week."

I did not see the game (no NFL network 😪) but I did see that he scored that McLaurin scored 27. Observations as to why this swung so far the other way from the prediction? I haven't paid much attention to the WR/CB matchups on the whole, but the two that I have ended up being quite wrong. Do they generally work out well? How should I interpret these WR/CB matchup articles? Articles from FBG on the whole? Beginner here.

 
I don't have McLaurin. My opponent does, and I think he flexed him? I just glanced at the matchup then saw the matchup breakdown and wondered what thought there were on the discrepancy. Thanks for the advice.

 
The only time I take wr/cb matchups into account when making lineup decisions is when the 2 I’m deciding between is a coin toss

A player like McLaurin gets started regardless of matchup, in my opinion

You didn’t draft McLaurin when you did so he could sit (when healthy)


There is no Revis Island any more and the officiating is such that the concept of a shutdown corner is hilarious. I might use data to break ties but I wouldn't have benched McLaurin for some random week to week WR4

 
A good rule of thumb is that you'll do better ignoring WR/CB match-ups completely than you will overthinking them and constantly adjusting your lineups based on them. Not to say that you should always ignore them, but it's definitely better to err in that direction.

 
a guy like McLaurin is matchup-proof. he's starting no matter what, no matter where and no matter who he's playing against.

 
Scary Terry is legit, and pretty much matchup proof.  He made Bradberry his #####
Did he? That feels like an entirely magic football based analysis. I understand that is all that matters in this place.

McLaurin had a fine game but Bradberry straight up won the real life game when picked the pass intended for McLaurin in the 4th.

The call on Lawrence was actually kind of dubious on review. But a win is a win.

McLaurin had a decent magic football day; but 11 catches on 14 targets while barely breaking 100 yards doesn't really feel like a dominating performance.

This feels like a place where magic football inflates, or deflates, the status of a player that real world reality does not support.

 
I only watched the first half but a lot of it can be blamed on defensive play calling.  There was a lot of deep zone which gave Terry tons of space to make catches underneath basically uncontested.   The wft td at the end of the first can almost completely be blamed on this.

 
Quilman83 said:
I did not see the game (no NFL network 😪) but I did see that he scored that McLaurin scored 27. Observations as to why this swung so far the other way from the prediction? I haven't paid much attention to the WR/CB matchups on the whole, but the two that I have ended up being quite wrong. Do they generally work out well? How should I interpret these WR/CB matchup articles? Articles from FBG on the whole? Beginner here.
Was anyone going to bench McClaurin on the heels of this pre-game analysis? 

Until we saw it last night, no one really know what Heineken was going to do. Both of these defenses were out of sorts on the short week & both young QBs lit it up. Any given Sunday (er, Thursday), right? 

To answer the specific question, 1st short week of the season, but of a sloppy field, a back and forth game, & a much better than expected Heineken who peppered McClaurin with passes all night. 

 
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Cowboysfan8 said:
The only time I take wr/cb matchups into account when making lineup decisions is when the 2 I’m deciding between is a coin toss

A player like McLaurin gets started regardless of matchup, in my opinion

You didn’t draft McLaurin when you did so he could sit (when healthy)
Exactly this. 

 
Chaka said:
Did he? That feels like an entirely magic football based analysis. I understand that is all that matters in this place.

McLaurin had a fine game but Bradberry straight up won the real life game when picked the pass intended for McLaurin in the 4th.

The call on Lawrence was actually kind of dubious on review. But a win is a win.

McLaurin had a decent magic football day; but 11 catches on 14 targets while barely breaking 100 yards doesn't really feel like a dominating performance.

This feels like a place where magic football inflates, or deflates, the status of a player that real world reality does not support.
Ok maybe he didn't make him his #####, but he got the better of him

 
Some teams have no choice but to use their studs ,WAS.

other teams have a choice, TB,  Evans vs Diggs. Surely Evans could have had a day if they threw it his way 

 
Chaka said:
Did he? That feels like an entirely magic football based analysis. I understand that is all that matters in this place.

McLaurin had a fine game but Bradberry straight up won the real life game when picked the pass intended for McLaurin in the 4th.

The call on Lawrence was actually kind of dubious on review. But a win is a win.

McLaurin had a decent magic football day; but 11 catches on 14 targets while barely breaking 100 yards doesn't really feel like a dominating performance.

This feels like a place where magic football inflates, or deflates, the status of a player that real world reality does not support.
Yeah he totally owned Bradberry the whole game. That interception was a *great* not good play but it had zero to do with McLaurin and 100% to do with Bradberry, Heinicke, and that insane playcall. That is a strategic situation where it is easy for the DB (of Bradberry's caliber) to say "if the initial read after the snap is that they are passing, then it is likely a short little hitch to get the 7 yards" - in other words it is a very jumpable route. Which is another reason it really was a dumb playcall and to not just give it to Gibson who was eating everytime he ran with it.

I give all the credit in the world to Bradberry for making that play. It *should* have won the game for them. But it had nothing to do with Terry, who had owned him the entirety of the game.

 
and that insane playcall. That is a strategic situation where it is easy for the DB (of Bradberry's caliber) to say "if the initial read after the snap is that they are passing, then it is likely a short little hitch to get the 7 yards" - in other words it is a very jumpable route.
agree that it was crazy to throw there, especially to McClaurin - in the in-game topic I said they went back to the well one too many times.

Shades of Pete Carroll in the super bowl.

 
This is a great topic. And one more chance to reiterate what we always say on any kind of matchup: The Projections and Rankings are the final say.

At this point, McLaurin is matchup proof. 

We absolutely were worried about the matchup, but still had McLaurin at WR19 https://www.footballguys.com/projections/inseason?pos=wr&who=996&profile=p&week=2

That likely will be too low even there. But still a starter in just about every league. 

Bottom line - Always consider our Stat Projections the final word on a player. 

 
This is a great topic. And one more chance to reiterate what we always say on any kind of matchup: The Projections and Rankings are the final say.

At this point, McLaurin is matchup proof. 

We absolutely were worried about the matchup, but still had McLaurin at WR19 https://www.footballguys.com/projections/inseason?pos=wr&who=996&profile=p&week=2

That likely will be too low even there. But still a starter in just about every league. 

Bottom line - Always consider our Stat Projections the final word on a player. 
Hey I am as big a stan on McLaurin as you will find and I *did* bench him in one league this week based on my fear of this matchup. I then later thought better of it and got him back in well before kickoff but still. It *did* scare me.

 
Hey I am as big a stan on McLaurin as you will find and I *did* bench him in one league this week based on my fear of this matchup. I then later thought better of it and got him back in well before kickoff but still. It *did* scare me.


With you. It scared us too. But feel better now after seeing the game. 

I like McLaurin more every game I see him. 

 
With you. It scared us too. But feel better now after seeing the game. 

I like McLaurin more every game I see him. 
I think he is incredible and has just needed a stable QB. He has produced through injuries in the past. But there were stories in his rookie camp where he was staying late with the JUGGS machine, working with the robot tackling dummies and figuring out how to set them both up to have "hard to catch" balls like behind or to the side of the dummy such that he would be required to make some acrobatic maneuver to catch it. He was staying late to do intensely specific high difficulty reps because it might help him in games. Reminds me of Dirk Novitski working on weird angles for jump shots or Lillard taking 40 footers in practice. Seems insane until he is headlining sportscenter.

 
This is a great topic. And one more chance to reiterate what we always say on any kind of matchup: The Projections and Rankings are the final say.

At this point, McLaurin is matchup proof. 

We absolutely were worried about the matchup, but still had McLaurin at WR19 https://www.footballguys.com/projections/inseason?pos=wr&who=996&profile=p&week=2

That likely will be too low even there. But still a starter in just about every league. 

Bottom line - Always consider our Stat Projections the final word on a player. 
Have not read the matchup articles. Does it mention which WRs are likely to get the targets no matter who is covering them. Much like we saw with T Mac on Thursday?

 
James Bradberry is very good against bigger corners who use physicality (Sutton, Metcaff). Although he did great against McLaurin in 2020, he's usually much less effective against the smaller speed receivers so the defensive scheme the Giants run (Cover 3 or 2 Deep Shell) usually helps him out. Giants did little to scheme him help and Heinecke relentlessly targeted McLaurin, although James did get him back late in the game. So I can see why it was an "unfavorable matchup" as a Giants fan.

But yeah, the "shutdown corner" barely exists in today's football where DPI is the norm and OPI is never called.

 
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I feel the same about McClaurin although I was already pretty high on him, he continues to impress me.

As far as the match up the unknown of Taylor Heinicke  (at least for me) was a additional reason to be concerned, but he played better than I expected.

Less concerned about that now.


 This above^^^^.

 We all know McLaurin is a stud  and you have to play him most every week. But when Fitz went down, I immediately became concerned about The Heinicke   effect.  Fortunately, it looks like  Heinicke will at least be sufficient enough to want to target his playmakers. Ahem McLaurin.

 The one league I own McLaurin, (start 3 WRs mandatory)  I have Devante Adams, Terry McLaurin and Chris Godwin.   I had some concerns about Heinicke when Fitz went down, but I have no problem rolling out these three. So what if McLaurin is 10% less than what I drafted, hes still a stud and I'm trotting him out with confidence.

 TZM

 

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