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WEEK 3 DFS (1 Viewer)

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
On to the next week.   My daughter's class got shutdown b/c of covid, so I will be bored and looking at stuff too much again this week.   Like I posted in the other thread, I will be all DK now (unless my 4 MNF LUs do well tonight), so when I post I will lean a bit more to target shares vs. TD upside.   

Anyway, I looks like there is 4 huge total games on the slate:   LaC/KC, Az/Jax, TB/LaR, and Seat/Min.      

Then there are 3 decent totals between 48 and 50:  Indy/Ten, Atl/NYG, and Balt/Det.  

I could be wrong, but on DK it looks like the salaries are a little flatter and the top players aren't priced so high.  (having no CMC helps with that, I guess).  

 
I'm thinking Atlanta shows better against the Giants than it did against the Eagles and Bucs.

I'm leaning towards Wilson, Cousins, Mahomes, Murray and Ryan (as the cheapee).

 
Not sure if anybody else pokes around with this, but one of the free things that RG has is ResultsDB.   You can poke through contests and see what the ownership was for people in the contest - ie you can look at top players like Awesemo who put in 150 in the $20 Milly Maker, and see what the ownership in their player pool was.   It is interesting for sure.      One of the pods mentioned it, and brought it up with the example that a lot of the pros had 40-60% of Mike Davis in week 1 and were discussing why that would be the case.   

HERE is where you can find it for Sunday's slate.  

As far as I can tell it's for DK.  

 
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I was just randomly clicking on the guys that put in for 150 LUs on the Milly and one thing that really stood out is they aren't afraid of taking stands.   I see ownership in their player pools of 60-80% Carson.   I saw some 50%+ on guys like Henry, Brady, Edmonds.   Hell, there was a guy with 90% Gronk.   

And 0 surprise, a lot of these are pivot points off chalky stacks or plays.  

 
Anyway, on to week 3.   I posted some of the game totals.  Here are the 3 games that showed up for being high pace games:

TB/LaR, Az/Jax, Buff/Wash

 
Started with Qbs this morning.   After 2 weeks, here are the teams in order with the highest passing % for plays:

Jax, TB (70% +)

Det, Pitts, LV, LaC, Atl (65%+)

Mia, Dallas, Minn, KC, Jets, Buff, NYG  (60%) 

keep in mind that these are also good teams to target with DTs as well, since they are more prone to sacks, INts, etc..  

In order of highest attempts/game through 2 games:

Goff, Carr (45+/g)

Herbert, Brady, Allen, Lawrence, Cousins, Ryan (40+/g)

QBs with high touches/rushes per game:

L.Jackson, D.Jones, Allen, Fields, Murray

This is where I start for Qbs, and don't go much deeper than this list.  On DK the salaries are a lot wider, which IMO is better because it leads to more decisions.  from this list, we have Goff at 5.2K all the way up to Murray at 8.3K.   

ETA:

I also look at who has the most attempts in the RZ and inside the 10 yard line.   So here are tops of the list in format inside 20/inside 10:

Brady 20/5, Herbert 18/8, Allen 14/6, Murray 14/7, Carr 13/4, Ryan 12/7, and D.Jones 12/4 

 
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Damn air yards app isn't updated yet, so I went on to RBs.   Touches and volume are key, so that's where I started the big list.   Here are the RBs for the slate based on 2021 touches/game:

Henry (only one averaging 30+/game)

Mixon, Cook (25+/game)

D.Harris, D.Montgomery (20+/game)

J.Taylor, Gibson (19)

Kamara, M.Davis (17)

Ekeler, Henderson, Sanders, Carson, N.Harris (16) 

Bolded are the players that had a top 10 OL/DL matchup this week from the chart I looked at.  

Now, because I am doing DK I circled any player from that list getting 4+ targets/game.   That list was:  Henry, Cook, Taylor, Kamara, M.Davis, Ekeler, N.Harris.  

I also looked at players that were getting high volume inside the 10 yard line and 5 yard line.   The main names were:  Henry, Taylor, Henderson, D.Harris, Ekeler.   All of those players were also 80-100% of the team carries inside the 5.   A couple players that were 100% of the 5yd and in rushes, but didn't have the total opportunities were:  Cook and Carson.  

Taylor was one that really stood out to look at more.   Stat wise he seems like he should be dominating, but hasn't scored much.  

A few I wrote down b/c of high targets for ppr gpp were:  D.Swift, J.White, J.Williams, Edmonds, Hines.     I also circled Barkley to look at because he is cheap.   

 
TE:   

I tried to narrow down the pool a little.   First I wrote down any TE that had an average of 5 targets/game + at least a 15% market share of team targets.   That list in order of team target market share %:

Waller, Kelce, Fant, Hockenson, Pitts, Andrews, Doyle, Cook, Gronk, L.Thomas, J.Smith

Statistically, TEs have bigger games as favorites and especially home faves so that list from above would be: Waller, Kelce, Fant, Andrews, Gronk, J.Smith.   (home faves bolded) 

There were 4 who were 15% or more of team air yards:  Waller, Hockenson, Pitts, L.Thomas 

There were 4 who saw a good % of team targets in the RZ and inside the 10:  Waller, Kelce, Hockenson, Gronk.   

Which makes sense, because the top 3 names on the expected TDs list were:  Waller, Hockenson, Gronk.  

 
I haven't seen a WR list like this in the last couple years.    Seems like more teams are going pass heavy, and there were 41 names on the list for team target share over 20%.   I will go players with 25% for the main slate:

35%+ :  Kupp

30%+ :  Lockett, M.Brown, Metcalf, Hill, D.Johnson

25% +:  Watkins, Shepard, M.Williams, McLaurin, Higgins, Ridley, K.Allen, Berrios, Jefferson, AJ Brown, Sutton

Probably a good place to start for WRs.  Here's a couple other things I looked at...

From the above list, the ones that had 40% air yard %:  Lockett, Brown, Hill, Ridley, Jefferson, Sutton

Form the list the ones that had a high expected TD rate:  Kupp, M.Williams, K.Allen, AJ Brown

From the list the ones that had a high % of team targets inside the 10 yard line:  Kupp, M.Brown, M.Williams, Higgins.  

One name that popped out as just barely missing the first list, but was high in the TD/RZ stuff was Marvin Jones. 

Others that stood out on the RZ/Inside the 10 target %, but not on first list:  Godwin/Evans, Waddle, C.Davis, Thielen, AJ Green, A.Rob, Julio 

 
Lastly, these were the DTs that were on the top of the DL/OL sack potential list in order:

Minn, NE, Indy, Chic, Ten, LV, Det, Pitt, NYJ

The ones I bolded were also on the top 10 for QB hurries.  Of those, only LV is the one going up against a team on the initial list in the QB section as a team with a high % of plays that are passes.  

AZ was a team that didn't show up on the OL/DL list, but it was on both lists as far as QB pressure and Qb Hurries that was going against a team with a high % of pass plays.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
TE:   

I tried to narrow down the pool a little.   First I wrote down any TE that had an average of 5 targets/game + at least a 15% market share of team targets.   That list in order of team target market share %:

Waller, Kelce, Fant, Hockenson, Pitts, Andrews, Doyle, Cook, Gronk, L.Thomas, J.Smith

Statistically, TEs have bigger games as favorites and especially home faves so that list from above would be: Waller, Kelce, Fant, Andrews, Gronk, J.Smith.   (home faves bolded) 

There were 4 who were 15% or more of team air yards:  Waller, Hockenson, Pitts, L.Thomas 

There were 4 who saw a good % of team targets in the RZ and inside the 10:  Waller, Kelce, Hockenson, Gronk.   

Which makes sense, because the top 3 names on the expected TDs list were:  Waller, Hockenson, Gronk.  
Thanks for this.  Jonnu might be impacted by Saints pressure on the rookie QB.  Waller might be impacted by the QB being questionable.  I would be fine with rolling with Kelce, Fant, Hock, Gronk with Waller TBD.

 
Fields chalk this week in cash at $6500


At $6500, he is probably to cheap.  I watched last weeks game and he did not look good in relief of Andy.  He has all week to prepare, so that helps.  I am just not sure the talent around him is good enough, which includes the coaching.  I am curious what ownership will be like.  The first snapshot I saw this morning was at 3.5%.  We want 200-yds passing, 60-yds rushing, and 1-TD to get him close to 20-pts, but that assumes no turnovers.  If he can hit that second TD, then we start to push into 4x value category, which would be nice.  Obviously, he opens up opportunity with the rest of your lineup, so how you use that extra cash will probably determine how successful any lineup with Fields will be.  I am not that interested in this game, so what little bit I do have will probably be naked Fields only, which in today's DFS is unusual.

 
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At first glance this week, I was on Barkley.  It appears he is going to come in around 20% ownership at $6000, versus a bad Atlanta team.  Most of my research suggests an above average matchup, but not elite.  A closer look at Barkley also reveals a lack of touches and usage around the goal line.  We know he is still recovering from injury and he shares carries with an athletic QB.  It looks like the value is there, but he has yet to exceed 10 fantasy points and we need him to get to around 18-pts (120 total yads and 1-TD) this week.  I think I will have less than most this week.  Not a complete fade, but I am scaried he might be bad chalk this week.  What say you?

 
At first glance this week, I was on Barkley.  It appears he is going to come in around 20% ownership at $6000, versus a bad Atlanta team.  Most of my research suggests an above average matchup, but not elite.  A closer look at Barkley also reveals a lack of touches and usage around the goal line.  We know he is still recovering from injury and he shares carries with an athletic QB.  It looks like the value is there, but he has yet to exceed 10 fantasy points and we need him to get to around 18-pts (120 total yads and 1-TD) this week.  I think I will have less than most this week.  Not a complete fade, but I am scaried he might be bad chalk this week.  What say you?
The one promising thing, besides the matchup, is that his snaps jumped way up on a few days rest, and now he will have 9 days of rest before this game.  

I am waiting for ownership too.  I get it's different sites, but there is a ton of talk on pods about CEH and how he's way too cheap at sub5K and people will be playing him.  I would much rather click on Barkley's name than his name.  

I do like this game for gpp, but will think about using it as an ownership pivot - if Jones is popular, then maybe take some shots with Barkley, if Barkley is chalk - use Jones and Shepard or something.   

 
The one promising thing, besides the matchup, is that his snaps jumped way up on a few days rest, and now he will have 9 days of rest before this game.  

I am waiting for ownership too.  I get it's different sites, but there is a ton of talk on pods about CEH and how he's way too cheap at sub5K and people will be playing him.  I would much rather click on Barkley's name than his name.  

I do like this game for gpp, but will think about using it as an ownership pivot - if Jones is popular, then maybe take some shots with Barkley, if Barkley is chalk - use Jones and Shepard or something.   


I like the game, but as you mentioned I am attacking it more through Jones and the WRs.

 
I like the game, but as you mentioned I am attacking it more through Jones and the WRs.
FWIW, i just looked on 4for4, and they don't have ownership yet but they have Gibson projected higher and as a better value for basically the same price.   Maybe somebody like that is a price pivot from Barkley if you don't like him in the game? 

 
What do we do with Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson?

Again, I like the ATL/NYG, but I am not sure on these two guys.  I am hearing chirps that Patterson is a 'good' play this week.  I also heard that Gage may be out, opening up more opportunities for Patterson.  The optimizer loves Davis.

Personally, I am interested in Davis, but not Patterson (out of ten, I would have Patterson once or twice).

And in general, I think I like Davis less than the ownership projections.

I plan to have plenty of Jones with Golladay/Sheppard, but I will be running it back Ridley and Pitts.

 
Dalvin Cook...Anyone else terrified of spending $9500 and him not finishing the game?

It is a physical sport.  Injuries happen.  And luck is part of it.

This guy heads to the sideline with a limp at least twice a game.

I am not blaming him.  I wish him no ill will.

I just cannot roster him at that price right now.

He is one out of ten lineup guy for me.

 
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Looking these two over right now:

Jones-Henry/Taylor/Mixon-Shenault/Hopkins/Golladay-Pitts-Bengals

Fields-Henry/Ekeler/CEH-Hopkins/Woods/Shenault-Gronk-Dolphins

 
Looked at initial ownership projections.   F That - I see CEH as the 2nd highest owned on DK, with Ekeler the same.   Hill is WR10, and M.Williams WR 23?   Mahomes QB5?    

First step is to see what a Mahomes-Hill-Williams LU leaves me with the rest of my LU.   I see Barkley around 5%, so that might be what I try instead of CEH/Ekeler in that LU.  

 
Yeah, that is really tough on DK.   What I started with is the core of  Mahomes/Hill/Williams.    I really like the cheap idea in the Rams/TB game of Gronk + Van Jefferson, and I like LV D this week.   But that only leaves 5K/player for 2Rbs and Flex.   That's a bit tight.  

IF I drop to Brady/Stafford for QB but keep the rest of the shell intact, that would leave me about 5.4/5.5K per player.  

 
Yeah, that is really tough on DK.   What I started with is the core of  Mahomes/Hill/Williams.    I really like the cheap idea in the Rams/TB game of Gronk + Van Jefferson, and I like LV D this week.   But that only leaves 5K/player for 2Rbs and Flex.   That's a bit tight.  

IF I drop to Brady/Stafford for QB but keep the rest of the shell intact, that would leave me about 5.4/5.5K per player.  


On FanDuel it is much easier to attack that LAC/KC game with using Herbert instead of Mahomes.  Saves you $1200, at have the projected ownership.  

 
I am big on focusing on the high pace games for gpps, and since the Buff/Wash game is calling for strong winds, I don't love that one as much.  That leaves TB/Rams and Az/Jax as the main ones.   Looking at ownership and hearing the voice in my head that people don't double stack enough in big gpps.  Looks like there are a few lower % guys in each of those games:  Evans, Gronk, V.Jefferson, Green, R.Moore, M.Jones, Chark.     

Love something like Brady/Gronk/Godwin + Kupp or Murray/Moore/Green + Jones.   

 
I'm about to finalize my pools looking at ownership.  Ahead of that exercise, I like Murray, Wilson and Stafford and will likely fade Kansas City almost completely.  So you should load up on your Chiefs :D

 
I was listening to the FBGs pod, and I thought one had a fun idea for 20max gpps:  lock in 2 players, stack one game a bunch of ways.    Thought I would try that tomorrow for $2 with the 10cent 20max gpp.    I was leaning Balt/Det or Az/Jax for the game.   0 clue what to lock in though.  

 
I am big on focusing on the high pace games for gpps, and since the Buff/Wash game is calling for strong winds, I don't love that one as much.  That leaves TB/Rams and Az/Jax as the main ones.   Looking at ownership and hearing the voice in my head that people don't double stack enough in big gpps.  Looks like there are a few lower % guys in each of those games:  Evans, Gronk, V.Jefferson, Green, R.Moore, M.Jones, Chark.     

Love something like Brady/Gronk/Godwin + Kupp or Murray/Moore/Green + Jones.   
I am also targeting the Ari/Jax game.

Murray-Robinson/Barkley/Henry-Hopkins/Moore/Jones-Pitts-NYJ

 
I was listening to the FBGs pod, and I thought one had a fun idea for 20max gpps:  lock in 2 players, stack one game a bunch of ways.    Thought I would try that tomorrow for $2 with the 10cent 20max gpp.    I was leaning Balt/Det or Az/Jax for the game.   0 clue what to lock in though.  
For the Baltimore game it is hard to pick the lock; but I would go Lamar and TJ. Let the optimizer drop in Brown/Andrews and Cepheus based on your settings. 

For Ari/Jax, I would lock on Murray.  The real decision now has to be made.  If you believe there is enough value out there then I would lock Hopkins.  If you don’t trust the value I would consider Moore or Edmonds.  Personally, I think there is value so give me Murray with Hopkins. 

 
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For the Baltimore game it is hard to pick the lock; but I would go Lamar and TJ. Let the optimizer drop in Brown/Andrews and Cepheus based on your settings. 

For Ari/Jax, I would lock on Murray.  The real decision now has to be made.  If you believe there is enough value out there then I would lock Hopkins.  If you don’t trust the value I would consider Moore or Edmonds.  Personally, I think there is value so give me Murray with Hopkins. 
I think the point was to lock a couple players overall, not necessarily with the stack.   Ie.  lock Mixon and Gronk, then just stack Az/Jax 20 times.   I guess you could lock a player in the game too.   

One I built last night for my 3max contest was:  Brady - Cook/Barkley - Godwin/S.Miller/Kupp/Q.Cephus - Andrews - LV.    I thought Hock would be popular, so I thought the leverage of Andrews/Det WR would be an interesting flip.   Then Miller as a dart in the popular game with popular RBs.  

 
F-it, it's 2 dollars and I am overthinking.   I landed on the Balt/Det game, so I am going to stack that for 20 LUs.   IMO with Balt banged up on D and Det looking willing to try to keep up with teams it stuck out.  Especially when the stacking has a variety of ways with Rbs, Tes, and Wrs all pretty cheap and all viable.  

 
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Good luck all!! 

As I was doing the LUs, the shell from that game I liked the most was Jackson/T.Williams + Hock.   That left me 4 WR spots for the other games that I liked and could correlate if I wanted to - ie I got Barkley then R.Moore/M.Jones + Godwin/Woods.     I think I ended up doing 5-6 like that.  

 
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So, just pulling into this week. On Friday, the FBG multi-lineup builder made my LUs and NONE had Henry, but many had Dalvin. That was a nice, easy swap as there was only $200 more for Henry. In many cases, I was able to actually swap Henry in, and drop a random WR and swap in Mattison as flex.

For our league I'm going Brady - Carson, Mattison - Godwin, Woods, Metcalf, Allen - Waller - BAL Def

 
Cook out, anyone leaning on Mattison here?  I have a feeling they swap in Abdulla for goal line downs so I think I’ll look elsewhere.

 
I just had 2 cash lineups score 139 and 140 points and averaged placing around 65 out of 100. 
 

:sadbanana:

 
$200 in, $149 out. Not great but still have enough to stake for next week. Have Rodgers - Jones, Sermon, Tonyan, Kittle for the late game...Go Bears (i.e. Aaron Rodgers and GB)...

 
100 in and 65 out.

I got to 174-pts with one lineup, but the top heavy pay out schedule is tough.  It still wasnt enough to cover my other lineups.

Big misses of the week for me was the NYG/ATL game.  I liked the game and had stacked it a few different ways with Jones at QB.  Barkley is the only one that paid back in that game.  I also had a lot of Woods and not enough Kupp.  I was also disappointed in Lamar as my primary QB.  I expected more from him and his team this week.  I had to much Henry, instead of taking the discount with Kamara.

 
Finished up $13.50 for the week mostly due to a 12th place finish on DK with 192+. Looks like I'd probably cash in the FBG contest if it had run :(

 
We've been getting a lot of this feedback on showdowns. When we've covered them in the past, almost no one viewed the articles, so we shifted priorities. We can definitely start an article covering Thursday and Monday as those seem to be the biggest contests. We are also looking into the tools and capabilities of optimizer.

Ownership is all over the board for these, but it's something we can look at as well if they are popular. 

Steeler said:
@Joe Bryant

Does FBG have anything specific for the Showdown slates?  Write ups?  Projected ownership?  Lineup Optimizer?  Anything?

 

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