Willie Neslon
Footballguy
A mysterious old man hands you two boxes. He says "At this moment, each box is worth $20,000. You can decide to cash one or both of them in right now and I'll give you $20,000 for one or $40,000 for the both. You also have the option of not cashing in one or both in which case I will return some time in the not so distant future with a new and unique offer for each box that you still possess. For example, if you held on to both there is a chance my future offer will be something like $2,000 for one box and $4,000 for the other. Maybe I will offer close to the same amount I am offering now. There is a small chance I may offer you $100,000 for one of them and maybe even more, or less, for the other. There is even a much smaller chance I will offer you a million dollars or more for the right box. I'm not exactly sure what I will offer when I return but right now I'll give you $20,000 for one or $40,000 for the both. You can sell one and hold one if you like, or sell both, or hold both."
- Assume that it is 100% definite that the man will return and make another offer if you do not sell now.
- If you hold one or both boxes the lowest offer the man will make upon returning is $1,000 per box.
- Both boxes are worth exactly the same amount right now but once the man leaves the prices of each box could fluctuate greatly. If you cash one box right now in you may be cashing in the box that could have wildly increased in value upon the man's return.
- You can not look inside the boxes unless you decide to hold on to them. After the man leaves you can open them and see what is inside. At that time you may or may not see something valuable inside (and thus be able to anticipate what the man's offer will be when he returns).
WWYD?
- Assume that it is 100% definite that the man will return and make another offer if you do not sell now.
- If you hold one or both boxes the lowest offer the man will make upon returning is $1,000 per box.
- Both boxes are worth exactly the same amount right now but once the man leaves the prices of each box could fluctuate greatly. If you cash one box right now in you may be cashing in the box that could have wildly increased in value upon the man's return.
- You can not look inside the boxes unless you decide to hold on to them. After the man leaves you can open them and see what is inside. At that time you may or may not see something valuable inside (and thus be able to anticipate what the man's offer will be when he returns).
WWYD?
