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Short-term IDP production


trader jake

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LAC LB:

Press was consistently bad on Murray and his snaps were falling before his injury. The gist of it was he wasn't picking up / fitting into the new system. I'm assuming White and Tranquil will continue as the starters until I see evidence to the contrary. Certainly requires a close watch, though.

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On 11/16/2021 at 11:13 AM, trader jake said:

DB

  • If ATL DB Erik Harris is still available, he’s a pick-up due to his consistency at a position largely devoid of it.  The same general thought process applies to JAX S Rayshawn Jenkins as well.  Neither is superstar material, but they should both be rostered by someone in your league.
  • Are LAR DB’s Taylor Rapp, Jordan Fuller, and Jalen Ramsey weekly starters?  I’m in leagues where they tend to be started, but I’m not sure they should be in all leagues.  If passes defensed is scored higher than tackles Ramsey is a weekly starter (and certainly in CB required leagues).  Overall, the inconsistency of the safeties frustrates me and I tend to look elsewhere.  Or I’ve moved them to another GM when possible.  Am I alone here on this Rams safety group?

 

Agree with all the points made in these two blurbs. Harris is worth a shot in any league because of opportunity, Fuller is frustrating because of inconsistency. I don't know about Ramsey and Rapp, but I know Fuller has swung wildly this year. I still run him out there because I'm not savvy enough to play the "bad but starting CB" game too much and I don't have a ton of transactions left (I used my FAAB pretty liberally) to make for that strategy to really be viable. 

But yeah, you're on point here with both. 

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54 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Ultimate jinx, but I think Harris has a very good matchup tonight. He's the only player I'm starting in any league. Cause Thursday night football blows.

The football may blow but usually the defenses rule and it's crappy offense.  I have had good luck with playing my IDP guys on Thursday.  Not so much on the offensive side. 

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On 11/16/2021 at 2:58 PM, Gally said:

We use punters and it's awesome.  Our scoring puts them on par with other positions and the good ones put up double digit points and can get into the 20-'s.  They get points for inside the 20 (4 pts), total punting yards (gross), and punting average yds (gross).  I actually will search out my punter's game when they are up to punt. 

Same here….Are you in one of my leagues? 🤔

drafted Harvin in the 7th round of our rookie draft. Had 17.40 pts last week

4.15 for 280 punt yards

8.25 for 3 punts inside the 20

5.00 pts for 1 tackle

 

 

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2 hours ago, BigAl21 said:

trying to get younger and move Kwon for Pete Werner. anyone have a their finger on the pulse in NO? what will this LB corp look like next year?

Per usual, they're about $50 mil over the cap, so their ability to add anyone new is extremely limited. Davis, Werner, Baun, and Eliss are under contract and Werner's PT took a hit when Kwon returned. NO will sign a LB at a similar cost as Kwon (not much) to compete with Werner a/o Baun. Depending on his market that LB could just be Kwon again. I'd be surprised if they throw any more priority draft resources at the position though.

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How often do you think to yourself that IDP production is almost random?  Maybe it’s just during losses when your opponent’s crappy back-up safety gets two tipped interceptions or their defensive tackle just fell into a starting quarterback.  We all know the feeling.

This week I had the opposite when I struggled with my second flex spot in one league.  My choices came down to ARI S Budda Baker or HOU LB Kamu Grugier-Hill?  Baker is typically an every week starter for me in this league, but he’s been struggling and was listed as questionable for the late game kick while KGH (nobody calls him that...except me...now 😎) was slated to face the Titans in a likely beat down.  With Kyler Murray and Hopkins already out for the Cardinals the game before their bye week I felt the odds of Baker being a late scratch were higher than normal so I went with KGH.  I’m sure my opponent loved watching KGH! (now with an exclamation point) make a beautiful interception and come just short of a long pick6.  My opponent sent me a very impolite text when he also saw KGH!!! put up 6 tackles, 6 assists, and another PD on top of that clean, clean pick.

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky that good.  Or when you make the correct call, forget about the random nature of IDP football altogether and bask in your own fake football genius.  😇

DL

  • Check your waiver wire to see if DAL DE DeMarcus Lawrence is available.  He may be out there, especially in small roster leagues or in those without IR slots.  I’ll also mention DAL DE Dorance Armstrong again, he is off the watch list and worth a roster spot until Lawrence and/or Randy Gregory return.  Ditto with WAS DE James Smith-Williams.  The replacements for Lawrence & Gregory and Chase Young & Montez Sweat respectively were both productive in their increased playing time.  Opportunity knocked and they answered.
  • ARI DE Zach Allen continues to be under-rostered in general.  For an injury replacement he seems to have a relatively high floor.  The Cardinals are on bye week 12, so he could be a minimum pick-up for needy GMs this week, or even next.
  • GB DT Kenny Clark didn’t do much in the box score but he was absolutely dominant on Sunday against the Vikings.  His athleticism and pocket push will result in more IDP point production before the season is done.  Good option in DT required leagues and worth a look in larger roster leagues.
  • CHI DE Trevis Gipson continues to show flashes.  Earlier this season I mentioned noticing him while watching the Bears, but he’s a low floor, high ceiling option in big-play leagues only.
  • NO DT David Onyemata has put up good numbers since returning a month ago.  I imagine he’s already been picked-up in DT required leagues, but he could be a bye week fill-in in larger non-DT leagues.
  • I picked-up JAX DE Dawuane Smoot and started him in one league, thinking the 49ers would rush all game at that Jags defensive line (which they did) but he put up a grand total of 0.0 this week. :doh:  His snaps were cut back to around 50%, so, apparently, he’s not to be trusted in games the Jags won’t be rushing the passer much?  Considering that could be every week for the Jags, it makes him hard to count on.  Of course, the Falcons are up next.  Hmmm.

LB

  • BUF AJ Klein had another nice game, but I bring him up because he should probably be rostered in all medium to large roster leagues.  Odds are there are a handful of roster cloggers taking up spots when a nice LB with upside should be rostered instead.  Think of AJ Klein as the Alexander Mattison, Tony Pollard, or AJ Dillon of IDP linebackers (minus the youth and upside ☺️).  If Tremaine Edwards or Matt Milano are out I’m starting him in most of my leagues.  I’d put MIN LB Nick Vigil in this same category.  Are there other back-up / fill-in linebackers that fit this mold?
  • NE LB Kyle Van Noy went crazy last week and is widely available.  He’s a boom / bust player with a lot more bust on a weekly basis.  However, if you don’t mind the 2 tackle, 2 assist game he’s a decent gamble in the right matchup if you’re willing to roll the dice for a big game.  Ditto for BAL LB Tyus Bowser, GB LB Preston Smith, or PIT LB Alex Highsmith.  Surprisingly, I did notice CHI LB Robert Quinn was available in one league I’m in.  Players of his quality (like TEN LB Harold Landry) should be rostered while those like Van Noy, Bowser, Smith, or Highsmith are more mediocre options.
  • Browns LBs - I noticed Anthony Walker put up 5 tackles and 3 assists while Jeremiah Owuso-Koramoah had 4 with a tackle for loss….so, as we continue to monitor, is this where JOK cuts into Walker’s IDP point totals?  Looking into it closer, Walker was still out there for every defensive snap while JOK was ~30%.  Playing time wise that’s a great sign for Walker.  Production wise, that’s a great sign for JOK.
  • Chiefs LBs – Willie Gay led the position with under 60% of snaps.  Still a dumpster fire for IDP.  🏳️
  • We know he’ll get hurt at some point, but NO LB Kwon Alexander was over 80% of snaps and is a decent option against running teams.
  • BAL LB Josh Bynes put up a goose egg, so I checked it out.  He was in for over 80% of snaps, but the game script worked against Ravens defenders.  The Bears couldn’t sustain offense and down numbers were the result.  A zero is still surprising, but I’d continue to start him unless you have a stacked LB squad.
  • DAL LB Keanu Neal played every snap for the Cowbys and put up 5 tackles and 2 assists while Micah Parsons chased down Patrick Mahomes all afternoon from the edge.  If the Cowboys are facing a very pass-heavy team you could do worse than gambling on Neal.  Risky play though.
  • CHI LB Alec Ogletree has only put up one big week this season, but with Danny Trevathan out for the season his playing time is at least locked in now.  You could do worse.
  • PHI LB Alex Singleton played over 80% of snaps this week after Davion Taylor left the game injured and is likely headed to IR.  This makes Singleton worth starting again, but it seems a lot of GMs stashed him hoping he would return to form or they didn’t realize he was replaced by TJ Edwards...so “Not in my leagues”?
  • NYJ LB Quincy Williams…I can’t quit you!  He played almost 90% of snaps again and went HAM after the Jets benched Jarrad Davis.  Overall, Davis has been unproductive for weeks and was simply standing between Quincy Williams and IDP production!  Note:  CJ Mosley also left the game with a concussion late.  ALL YOUR QUINCYS ARE BELONG TO US! :moneybag:

DB

  • In past weeks we’ve discussed NYJ S Marcus Maye’s replacement.  It looked like Sharrod Neasman would be the guy, then Jarrod Wilson, and now it looks to be Elijah Riley?  He’s worth a watch at this point, but I’m unsure what’s going on there.  NYJ S Ashtyn Davis played almost all the snaps and he, despite a low tackle outing last week, remains a good option to start most weeks.
  • Speaking of replacements, PIT S Miles Killebrew had the great punt block on Sunday Night Football, but Tre Norwood was the replacement for Minkah Fitzpatrick.  Minkah is expected back from the covid list, but if he’s out Norwood becomes a streamable option at DB.
  • On Monday Night Football NYG S Julian Love filled in for Logan Ryan and looked decent.  If Ryan misses any more time due to covid Love makes for a nice spot start.
  • HOU S Eric Murray played over 90% of snaps and was productive, so he becomes at least a watch for now.  That said, Justin Reid played almost all the snaps for the Texans and didn’t do anything.  Tough to trust the Texans secondary though.
  • DET S Tracy Walker is again a mention.  He just played 100% of snaps and is worth a bench spot if available and bye week fill-in against certain teams.  Maybe even DET S Will Harris if you’re desperate.  The opportunities should be there because the Lions defense tends to be on the field a lot.
  • ATL CB AJ Terrell has been very steady at the corner and he looked healthy to me last Thursday night.  Seems to get 4 tackles with some assists and passes defensed each week.  Also, congrats to @MAC_32 on the Erik Harris ½ sack!  I found myself rooting for him to be productive like I had him in my line-up.  😏
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3 hours ago, trader jake said:
  • Browns LBs - I noticed Anthony Walker put up 5 tackles and 3 assists while Jeremiah Owuso-Koramoah had 4 with a tackle for loss….so, as we continue to monitor, is this where JOK cuts into Walker’s IDP point totals?  Looking into it closer, Walker was still out there for every defensive snap while JOK was ~30%.  Playing time wise that’s a great sign for Walker.  Production wise, that’s a great sign for JOK.

KOH reinjured his ankle early.  That is why is snap count is so low.  I am not sure the severity but I wouldn't count on him in the near future which should make Walker safe for the time being.  

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3 hours ago, trader jake said:
  • DAL LB Keanu Neal played every snap for the Cowbys and put up 5 tackles and 2 assists while Micah Parsons chased down Patrick Mahomes all afternoon from the edge.  If the Cowboys are facing a very pass-heavy team you could do worse than gambling on Neal.  Risky play though.

As you pointed out in the DL section, this could be a function of no Lawrence & Gregory forcing Parsons to DE.  Once those guys come back Neal slides back to part time as Parsons slides back to LB.  In the meantime though, Neal might be a nice add while he is getting the PT.  

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21 minutes ago, Gally said:

KOH reinjured his ankle early.  That is why is snap count is so low.  I am not sure the severity but I wouldn't count on him in the near future which should make Walker safe for the time being.  

Appreciate the info on JOK @Gally.  Didn't realize he was injured, just thought he was working back in.  Man, he was so explosive at Notre Dame, but he's been unable to stay healthy as a pro.  I still remember when he dropped on draft day...maybe teams that passed on him were smarter than we thought?  We'll see.

18 minutes ago, Gally said:

As you pointed out in the DL section, this could be a function of no Lawrence & Gregory forcing Parsons to DE.  Once those guys come back Neal slides back to part time as Parsons slides back to LB.  In the meantime though, Neal might be a nice add while he is getting the PT.  

Exactly.  Had my eye on Lawrence in one league where he's on the wire and I just put in a minimum claim.  He'll be bench fodder for a bit, but his upside is there if he is playing full-time by the fantasy playoffs.

You wonder if the Cowboys would consider playing Parsons at DE full-time at some point?  Inside linebackers can be found on the cheap, but those edge-rushers are gold.  He clearly has the ability to play the edge.

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6 minutes ago, trader jake said:

Appreciate the info on JOK @Gally.  Didn't realize he was injured, just thought he was working back in.  Man, he was so explosive at Notre Dame, but he's been unable to stay healthy as a pro.  I still remember when he dropped on draft day...maybe teams that passed on him were smarter than we thought?  We'll see.


He's only hurt that one ankle. The beginning of the year was them easing him into action. He had COVID, IIRC, in the preseason so he got a late start. 

7 minutes ago, trader jake said:

You wonder if the Cowboys would consider playing Parsons at DE full-time at some point?  Inside linebackers can be found on the cheap, but those edge-rushers are gold.  He clearly has the ability to play the edge.


I wrote Gally this exact sentiment in a PM about twenty minutes before you posted this. I have Parsons as a LB, and would hate for him to stay an LB while playing DE. I used the exact same reasoning. He's on a rookie contract at LB. DEs come much more expensive. He's a value pick right now at DE, and has shown he can run with them. I dread his competence there. 

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I think Dallas wants to have a subpackage in 22 with Keanu and Cox at LB and Parsons as a chess piece. He'll probably be in a traditional LB position in the base d and we'll see who else lines up at LB. There's also injury - sure, it'd be cool if all 3 are always healthy, but that ain't reality. I'd be surprised if they invest much else at the position, but they will need to have one cheap body for depth purposes. I think their skill set will say what they expect of Cox.

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My least favorite scenario in fake football has to be a small to medium lead heading into Monday Night Football and an opponent having that one (or more) players remaining.  Watching SEA DB Jamal Adams slowly cut into my lead last night was excruciating.  At one point they showed a graphic with his 9.5 sacks last year and his 0.0 total this season.  A play or two later he rushed the QB and it felt like the kicker lining up for an extra point just as the announcer proclaims, “He hasn’t missed one all season!” 😬  Adams had a big game, but fortunately my team pulled out the win.  In another league I was all but forced to start WAS DB Landon Collins and he came through, but it looks like my team will come up just short in that one.  Late in the game he and Kamren Curl met at the QB and Curl was credited with the full sack.  Maybe my head coach will throw the challenge flag and we’ll get that call overturned during the weekly stat corrections…to grab victory from the jaws of defeat!  :pickle:

DL

  • SEA DL Darrell Taylor looked good on Monday Night and is again worth looking at.  The Seahawks rotate their lineman a lot, but he has the explosiveness to make big plays if your team is in need.
  • LAR DT Sebastian Joseph-Day went on IR and LAR DE Greg Gaines played over 90% of snaps!  He put up 5 tackles and a sack.  Gaines could be a good pick-up with Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Leonard Floyd drawing attention from the offense.
  • Mentioned last week that GB DT Kenny Clark didn’t do much in the box score but was dominant.  This week he was dominant again…and did put up numbers.  After Green Bay’s bye I’d continue to start him in DT required leagues and with opponents like CHI, BAL, CLE, and MIN remaining he may be a decent DL play in general down the stretch.
  • Last chances to pick-up PIT DE Stephon Tuitt and/or DAL DE DeMarcus Lawrence, if available.  🚩  “Not in my leagues!”  Speaking of…

LB

  • As discussed in past weeks here DAL LB Keanu Neal continued to be playable as long as DAL DE DeMarcus Lawrence was out.  When Lawrence returns from IR that playing time party for Neal may come to an end.  Neal would then fall into that AJ Klein and Nick Vigil bucket of players to keep on speed dial as top real life back-ups with immediate IDP starting possibilities if/when injuries in front of them occur.  Speaking of…
  • MIN LB Nick Vigil played significant snaps after MIN LB Anthony Barr left the game with an injured hamstring.  Note:  Vigil got the green dot after Barr left and is an immediate IDP start if Barr is inactive.  ☑️
  • PHI LB Davion Taylor was officially put on IR before last weekend and will miss at least two more games.  If he returns after that three week stint, he would be back for week 16.  Eagles coach Nick Sirianni said he had surgery and could return but who knows?  Taylor may be a nice playoff boost or GMs might be able to ride out this Alex Singleton reemergence.  Just know that Singleton isn’t guaranteed to be the man the remainder of the fantasy season.  TJ Edwards appears to be secure either way now.
  • Another LB to remember for the fake football playoffs is HOU LB Christian Kirksey.  He could return from IR in week 15 and, if nothing else, could squash the value GMs are again getting from Zach Cunningham.  HOU LB Neville Hewitt is also in the mix.  HOU LB Kamu Grugier-Hill appears to be secure either way.
  • DEN LB Baron Browning returned to action and played 100% of snaps.  He can go back into your line-ups where necessary.  DEN LB Bradley Chubb also returned but did not accumulate any stats.
  • MIA LB Jerome Baker has had a few down weeks, so I took a look.  He’s still playing over 80% of snaps for the Dolphins, but the Panthers were unable to sustain offense against the Dolphins.  Baker remains a solid play, but know his production is dependent upon the opponent more than other ILBs.
  • Looking at other LBs, the Rams had Troy Reeder and Ernest Jones out there for ~80% & 70% of snaps respectively.  Reeder had the gaudy stat line, but I’m still not sure how much I trust it.  If you do, good luck. ☘️
  • GB LB Krys Barnes had a decent stat line, but did soon less than 2/3 of the defensive snaps.  As noted earlier, the match-ups line up nice after the Packers bye to be productive, but buyer beware.
  • BAL LB’s appear to be shaking out a bit.  Tyus Bowser played over 90% of snaps, Patrick Queen was in for ~2/3 of snaps and was productive, and finally Josh Bynes played just ½ the plays on defense.  This makes Bowser a nice boom / bust option, Queen startable in some cases, and appears to mark the end of Bynes time in starting line-ups.
  • Just wanted to note here an official changing of the guard has probably already taken place in Seattle.  Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks both put up 10 tackle, 4 assist games on Monday night, but Wagner has clearly lost a step while Brooks looks dangerous.  I’m not sure how high I’d have Brooks on my IDP LB list, but it’s significantly higher than I would have projected even one month ago.  How high is too high, thoughts? 📈 
  • Speaking of young linebackers, I got a good look at WAS LB Jamin Davis last night.  He looks like a great athlete, but it didn’t appear he knew what he was doing on a lot of the snaps I keyed on him.  Maybe he just needs another off-season to make the jump?  Or is he just the type of player that won’t be able to see plays develop quick enough.  If he doesn’t have the green dot entering 2022 I may look to flip him while he still has that shiny draft pedigree to someone.  Anyone in the DMV have more info?
  • As always, we will hail NYJ LB Quincy Williams here. 😊  He missed some snaps during the game with a thigh bruise, but he seems good to go moving forward.  Even at ~70% of snaps last week (due to the ding) he still put up big numbers.  He’s clearly my "2021 IDP man crush LB pick-up of the season".  Apologies to TEN LB David Long, NYG LB Tae Crowder, and HOU LB Kamu Grugier-Hill (his teammate HOU DE Jonathan Greenard is in the lead at DL).

DB

  • LV CB Brandon Facyson has looked decent and was starting to sneak onto some of my rosters.  He left the Thanksgiving Day game with a concussion though.  Other corners worth picking-up in non-CB required leagues include LAR Darious Williams, DET CB Amani Oruwariye, KC CB L’Jarius Sneed, HOU CB Eric Murray, or DEN CB Kyle Fuller.  Overall, just some examples of why to wait on DB in IDP leagues. ⚠️
  • DET S Dean Marlowe suddenly played 100% of snaps on Thanksgiving.  Watching as the tryptophan started pulsing through my veins it looked like the Lions went with 3 safeties, with one playing corner a lot.  We’ll see, but Marlow is now on the watch list.
  • DAL S Jayron Kearse is available in at least one of my leagues, so I figured I’d mention him here.  He’s more of a solid floor player but he has been mixing in big plays of late.  Probably should be on someone’s roster in your league.
  • JAX S Andrew Wingard is playing 100% of snaps and is a decent start if you’re in a rough spot.
  • NE DB Kyle Dugger played almost 90% of snaps this week and produced.  Belichick notoriously will change game plans each week, but Dugger looks like a decent bet to produce with two match-ups remaining against the Bills and one against the Colts upcoming.  Ditto with NE CB JC Jackson if you want to gamble.

Out of Action 👨‍🦯

  • Unfortunately, Everson Griffin again experienced off-the-filed issues that make him droppable in IDP leagues. MIN DE DJ Wonnum had a sack and is worth a pick-up.
  • NO DT Marcus Davenport missed the Thanksgiving Day game with a shoulder injury. Carl Granderson filled in for him and was a great DT play. With the pressure the Saints defensive line can generate, that makes Granderson an easy fill-in when playing time opens up.
  • SF LB Fred Warner will miss week 13.  Also, SF LB Dre Greenlaw just returned, but reinjured himself.  All this means SF LB Azeez Al-Shaair is again a very good starting option.  Hopefully GMs held him to see how it all shook out.  If they didn’t…pick Al-Shaair up now and get him into your line-up. 🛠️
  • CHI LB Roquan Smith injured his hamstring and missed more than half the game on Thanksgiving.  Not sure what his status will be but while he’s out Alec Ogletree will replace him and CHI LB Christian Jones will fill in that Ogletree role.  Poor man versions at least.
  • ATL LB Deion Jones was inactive due to a shoulder injury and Mykal Walker took his place in the Falcons line-up.  He had a great game and would be an immediate IDP starter if Jones misses any more action.
  • TJ Watt has Covid and looks like he'll be out of action this upcoming weekend.  This makes Alex Highsmith startable.  He played ~70% of snaps last week.
  • CIN LB Akeem Davis-Gaither is on IR and his fill-in was Germaine Pratt.  Not sure how interesting he is this week, but week 14 vs the 49ers has some appeal if you’re LB needy.
  • NYJ S Elijah Riley played while Jarrod Wilson was again a healthy inactive.  He had okay production if you’re in need.  He’s around ~80% of snaps while Ashtyn Davis was still in at 100%.
  • MIA S Brandon Jones missed last week and Eric Rowe started in his place.
  • BUF CB Tre’Davious White is out for the year with an ACL.  Mainly on the radar in CB required leagues, but worth mentioning that BUF CB Dane Jackson was the replacement.
  • CAR CB Donte Jackson has been placed on IR.  Worth watching playing time splits next week to see if anything of interest shakes loose for Stephon Gilmore, AJ Bouye, CJ Henderson, or Keith Taylor.

Also of Interest?

  • In the PIT @ CIN game the Steelers got tackles from 3 running backs (Najee Harris, Benny Snell, and Derek Watt) while the Bengals got tackles from 3 wideouts (Tyler Boyd, Stanley Morgan, and Mike Thomas).  🤷‍♂️
  • ATL K Younghoe Koo and ATL TE Kyle Pitts got into the tackle action for the Falcons, but they were outdone Sunday Night by BAL TE Mark Andrews.  He had 3 tackles and an assist 🤣 due to Lamar Jackson’s rough game.  Flex worthy in deep leagues? 🕺
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I would just like to chime in on the linebacker situation, designated as short-term in this thread, only I'd like to place a thought about long-term situations of these short-term fill-ins, especially two that might become long-term starters.

There are two guys, Akeem Davis-Gaither and Davion Taylor, who both were drafted last year and are in their second year. They were getting playing time finally before they got hurt, and it might behoove savvier, deeper-bench league guys to take a look at both if they've been dropped on the wire. I cannot speak to their talent, other than they were highly-regarded third (maybe fourth for ADG?) round projects, one from Appalachain St. and one from Colorado. They were long-shot hopes, and if they're getting seventy percent of the snaps like Taylor was, they're worth a speculative look due to Taylor's athleticism and Davis-Gaither's college production. 

Just something to think about. Not something to necessarily act upon, but to monitor. I drafted both guys in 2020 in our IDP draft, have dropped both, but followed both and picked them back up. 

Also, check Minnesotra and Chazz Surratt and Nick Vigil because Anthony Barr's contract runs out after this year, and he's been injured to high heaven. So monitor those situations for next year. 

Edited by rockaction
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LV DE Maxx Crosby is getting a mention off the top because I’m starting him in multiple leagues and he has been frustrating🤕   Not like running PHI RB Miles Sanders out there while everyone else gets the touchdowns or how I imagine being a Vikings fan must feel like (link - sorry@Golden Gopher), but it’s been less than ideal.  I’ve watched the Raiders play and Crosby seems to bump the QB each week, only to watch him stumble away and throw the ball out of bounds (or into another defensive lineman’s arms).  Or he’ll get the edge on a tackle and just miss hitting the ball out of the quarterback’s hands as he steps up in the pocket.  Etc, etc, etc.  Crosby is getting the playing time and his PFF numbers are closer to All-Pro than to #2 or #3 DL on your fantasy football team.  Maybe Crosby is simply saving that IDP production for your playoff run?  🤞

DL

  • LAC DE Joey Bosa left with a concussion and could have returned (he passed the concussion protocol during the game), but head coach Brandon Staley kept him out due to his previous history with head injuries.  LAC DE Chris Rumph filled-in and is an option if Bosa is a surprise inactive this week.
  • NO DE Cameron Jordan will most likely be out with covid and that should create more playing time for NO DE Carl Granderson and NO DE Jalyn Holmes.  Could make for a nice streaming start against the Jets porous offensive line this week.
  • WAS DE Montez Sweat could be returning to action soon.  If dropped in smaller leagues, he’s worth a roster spot at this point.
  • IND DE Muhammad Al-Quadin has been on and off rosters throughout fake football leagues.  If he was dropped in your league, he’s worth a pick-up.
  • LAR DE Greg Gaines played ~80% of snaps and remains a solid fill-in if needed.
  • PIT DE Chris Wormley is available in at least one of my leagues, so I’ll mention him here.  …and I had to get in a “Not in my leagues!” this week. 😁

LB

  • CIN LB Logan Wilson dislocated his shoulder on Sunday and is expected to miss some time.  This immediately elevates CIN LB Germaine Pratt to a weekly fantasy starter and makes CIN LB Joe Bachie worth a watch or spot start if you’re desperate.
  • HOU LB Christian Kirksey returned from IR and was immediately productive.  Wasn’t sure how his playing time would shake out, but with HOU LB Zach Cunningham getting suspended made that concern moot. Cunningham’s $10 million 2022 salary guarantees in March, but the Texans would take a $12.8 million cap hit if they get rid of him. @rockaction for Kamu Grugier-Hill info.  If it’s bad enough behind the scenes, maybe HOU just drops Cunningham while they have the space and expectations are low?  Either way, has any IDP dropped more in dynasty rankings than him? 📉
  • As we’ve discussed many times throughout the season here, if MIN LB Nick Vigil gets playing time due to an injury to Eric Kendricks or Anthony Barr…he’s a great start.  With both of the Vikings ILB’s out this past week we also saw MIN LB Blake Lynch benefit.  If both Kendricks and Barr are inactive on game day I would consider starting Lynch as well.  That said, both starting ILB’s may play this weekend, moving Vigil back to your bench.
  • DET LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin was out with an injured shoulder and DET LB Josh Woods got playing time, making him worth a watch.  DET LB Alex Anzalone continues to be worth playing, but I’m unsure why rookie Derrick Barnes isn’t getting more run?  Any insight from Lions homers?    Also… 

DB

  • …to follow-up on last week’s Lions DB news, the team again ran out 3 safeties for most of the game.  I’d have DET DB Tracy Walker as a starter in many leagues and makes Dean Marlowe an add in larger ones.
  • SEA S Jamal Adams injured his shoulder just before halftime Sunday and didn’t return. 🚨  If he misses time, SEA S Ryan Neal is his replacement and would be available in all but the most hardcore of crazy, degenerate leagues.  You know who you are. 😋
  • Why do I keep tracking NYJ S Ashtyn Davis?  Because the Jets are on the field a lot each week (helloooo Quincy Williams! 💌), but Davis keeps playing all/most of the Jets snaps and continues to underperform in the box score.  If anything, has NYJ S Elijah Riley now become the J-E-T-S safety to roster?
  • CHI DB Eddie Jackson returned from a hamstring injury two weeks ago and had 4 tackles, an assist, and a tackle for loss while playing 100% of snaps.  Games against GB, MIN, and SEA remain.  Probably only worth considering in very large leagues, but I know some can be tough to find safeties with full playing time available on the waiver wire.
  • MIA S Eric Rowe is the fill-in for MIA S Brandon Jones and is an okay play in the right match-ups when Jones is out. 📜  Yes, that’s a lot of qualifiers.
  • Both TB S Jordan Whitehead (injury) and TB S Mike Edwards (suspension) missed the Bucs last game and TB S Andrew Adams filled-in.  It appears this will be a one-week situation, but it’s worth mentioning in case that isn’t the case.   Also, note the return of TB CB Carlton Davis last week.  He’s worth an immediate start with the Bills passing game leaving the windy conditions in Buffalo to ball in Tampa this weekend.
  • IND S Khari Willis returned from injury and is worth a look of he was dropped in any of your leagues.

Cross Positional Considerations ⚔️

  • DAL DL DeMarcus Lawrence returned to the line-up and looked very good at New Orleans, playing ~50% of the snaps and he now becomes a weekly start for most squads.  No big plays, but he looked explosive and the two passes he knocked down suggest he could have a higher floor in games he doesn’t sack the quarterback. 💪  DAL DL Randy Gregory is also expected to return to the active roster this week for the Cowboys and he's worth a pick-up (DT Neville Gallimore could also return).  These players returning also drops DAL DL Dorance Armstrong and DAL LB Keanu Neal from starting consideration.  Neal could still be an option for LB desperate teams. Any info there? @MAC_32
  • WAS LB Jamin Davis played 90% of snaps as a replacement for WAS S Landon Collins (foot).  At first blush that may seem odd, but (as we noted a month ago) Collins is basically playing linebacker for the Football Team at this point.  For you dynasty GMs with Davis on the roster, there looks to be an okay opportunity to play Davis whenever Collins is out.
  • BAL CB Brandon Stephens is now playing safety and played ~90% of snaps alongside BAL S Chuck Clark.
  • Speaking of odd, seemingly misaligned, positional substitutions…when LV LB’s Denzel Perryman (ankle) and Cory Littleton (stinger) missed some snaps on Sunday, LV S Divine Deablo was on the field a lot. 🤷‍♀️ The rookie from Virginia Tech is worth a watch if Perryman and/or Littleton miss any time.   …and yes, I instinctively typed "OAK" before backspacing in the "LV" Raiders info above.  :lol:
Edited by trader jake
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Hey guys. I suppose I got @tted to possibly add some background on Grugier-Hill's situation. Best I can suss out, it's fluid. I checked the game logs. He's taken a ton of snaps this year since Week Three, but HOU's LB situation has been spotty in terms of the availability of their big three guys, Cunningham, Kirksey, and KGH. Kirksey and Cunningham have both missed time, so one day KGH is paired with Kirksey, another day he's paired with Cunningham, and who really knows how the coaching staff sees it. I'm not really an expert on KGH, but his snap counts are very high because at least one of Kirksey or Cunningham have been missing for most of the year. When they're all healthy, Grugier-Hill probably logs about 77-92% of the snaps in any given game, game-depending, often towards the higher end of that range. It's Cunningham that's sat since about Week Three, probably averaging anywhere from 20-30% of snaps when they're all healthy. 

So I looked at their contracts on Sportrac. Cunningham has an out in 2023, so they say, and Grugier-Hill and Kirksey are both UFAs at the end of this year. So...do with that information what thou wilt. I will say this: KGH, in my dilettantish estimation, and from my limited viewing, looks the part. His undercutting a route against Tennessee for a big pick and his huge 30-plus performance this week with TFLs and sacks was something that looked good on the field as well as the stat sheet. He propelled many teams to victory if you started him. 

Thanks again, trader jake, for the report. I wondered why Jamin Davis got so much run last week. Collins was hurt, eh? Makes sense. 

Anyway, good luck to everyone who reads this forum. We're all sort of in it together and hopefully can use the information. 

Edited by rockaction
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Oh, and Matt Waldman did a section this week on the MN linebackers, including Vigil. He was not impressed, so their efforts seem to be based on volume rather than pure talent or defensive efficacy. But we care about stat sheets, and Vigil stuffs them if Barr is out. Check out what Waldman has to say if you're a subscriber. 

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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

Oh, and Matt Waldman did a section this week on the MN linebackers, including Vigil. He was not impressed, so their efforts seem to be based on volume rather than pure talent or defensive efficacy. But we care about stat sheets, and Vigil stuffs them if Barr is out. Check out what Waldman has to say if you're a subscriber. 

this is definitely a situation where fake football and real football don't mesh.  Vigil is great for IDP when on the field but he is not a great NFL LB'er.  

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23 hours ago, trader jake said:

LB

  • HOU LB Christian Kirksey returned from IR and was immediately productive.  Wasn’t sure how his playing time would shake out, but with HOU LB Zach Cunningham getting suspended made that concern moot. Cunningham’s $10 million 2022 salary guarantees in March, but the Texans would take a $12.8 million cap hit if they get rid of him. @rockaction for Kamu Grugier-Hill info.  If it’s bad enough behind the scenes, maybe HOU just drops Cunningham while they have the space and expectations are low?  Either way, has any IDP dropped more in dynasty rankings than him? 📉

Cunningham was just released by Houston.  That should clear up KGH and Kirksey (until he gets hurt).  Also, does Cunningham catch on somewhere where he might be used and get back to his IDP usefullness?  I would hold if possible to see what happens and definitely jump on KGH if by some chance he is still out there.  

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It’s the playoffs in fantasy football!!  Good luck this week, just be aware there are games this Saturday (as well as the typical Thursday night game).  If you have any info on any of these situations…this is the week to post it.  Thank you to all the FBGs that have contributed here this season. :thanks:


DL

  • WAS DE Montez Sweat probably would have returned to action last week against DAL, but he remained out with Covid.  Still worth a mention for shallow bench leagues or those without IR designations.  “Not in my leagues!” 🙅‍♂️
  • I still like NO DE Carl Granderson as a deep league start, but not this upcoming week against TB.  For those of you with a bye, weeks 16 & 17 against MIA and CAR he could be interesting.
  • DEN DE Dre’Mont Jones is worth a mention.  He may be available in larger leagues and he’s been very productive since midseason.
  • MIN DL Kenny Willekes is a rookie, now getting a lot of snaps.  Not worth picking-up for a playoff push, but if your team is in the toilet bowl bracket (or you want to speculate for next season) he’s worth a look.
  • PIT DE Chris Wormley had a down week, but he played ~70% of snaps.  Still an option in deeper formats.
  • JAX DE Dawuane Smoot becomes useable again in deep leagues with JAX taking on HOU and NYJ in the next two games.  Speaking of HOU…

LB

  • HOU LB Kamu Grugier-Hill sprained his knee, but early reports suggest it’s not severe (despite the non-contact nature and initial speculation).  However, that injury concern was coupled with his being placed on the Covid list.  GMs shouldn’t count on him this week.  HOU LB Neville Hewitt is his replacement, and he makes for a decent pick-up and start this week for your IDP playoff match-up. 
  • DET LB Alex Anzalone missed the majority of the game Sunday after injuring his ankle.  DET LB Josh Woods ended up playing ~95% of the snaps and put up a huge game.  I looked up some info on him and apparently the Lions were looking to use him as the replacement for DET LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin anyway?  In the one league I had Anzalone I cut him when there was a desperate need elsewhere a few weeks ago.  This was primarily because he always gets hurt and I didn’t want a goose egg when it mattered.  Well, it happened week 14 instead of the playoffs, so if you lost him on Sunday…it could have been worse.  If he and Reeves-Maybin are both out you could plug Woods into your line-ups of need.  If just one of them is out, he becomes a gamble against the Cardinals. 👨‍🦯
  • TEN LBs – David Long missed his second straight game with a hamstring injury.  Also, the Texans picked-up Zach Cunningham after he was cut by HOU.  That left TEN LB Jayon Brown and TEN LB Rashaan Evans to play and they had good games.  I suspect Cunningham will get some snaps for the Titans soon, but I’d still be confident starting Long and Jayon Brown this week against the 49ers running attack.  More risk than there was a few weeks ago though, so beware (or start more consistent options if you feel like a solid favorite this week).
  • KC LBs – It’s fake football playoff time, so I took a look…again.  KC LB Willie Gay led with just over 50% of snaps, but KC did blow out LV (limiting high end snaps?).  With that said, this LB group continues to be unusable in your playoffs.  Sorry. :sadbanana:
  • NO LB Kwon Alexander played over 90% of snaps and should be in all line-ups at this point.  Of course, now that I type that he’ll suffer his yearly injury.  If that happens, I apologize.
  • DAL LB Keanu Neal played 2/3 of snaps. He didn’t do much with those snaps against WAS, but that role keeps him playable in some very large leagues or if you’re desperate.  Surprising to me he played that much, but the numbers are the numbers.
  • CLE LB Anthony Walker missed the game with Covid and the Browns ended up in Dime most of the game.  Unsure if that was the gameplan going in or they went to it after Lamar Jackson left with injury?  Either way Jeremiah Owosu-Koramoah played almost 100% of snaps, while Malcolm Smith played ~50%, and Jacob Phillips played ~40%.  That crosses off Phillips and Smith for future consideration to me and even makes me a little nervous regarding Walker in week 15 (assuming he returns).  As previous discussed, I’m a bit higher on JOK and a bit lower on Walker than others though.  Your mileage may vary. 🏎️
  • SF LB Fred Warner returned to action and played 100% of snaps.  If SF LB Dre Greenlaw returns to action next week, SF LB Azeez Al-Shaair should probably hit the bench for your team again.
  • JAC LB Damien Wilson played over 90% of snaps and was productive as the Jags got curb-stomped.  I’m not sure that will continue in week 15, but he’s available in at least one of my deep leagues, so I wanted to mention him.  “Not in my leagues!”
  • CIN LB Logan Wilson missed last week, but as we discussed last week CIN LB Germaine Pratt became a very nice play in his place.  At this point in the week I’m unsure if Wilson plays, so keep an eye on the inactive list if you are counting on production from a CIN ILB.
  • LV LB Denzel Perryman missed last week and LV S Divine Deablo filled his spot nicely.  If Perryman (or Littleton who looked banged-up last week) is inactive moving forward, feel free to plug in Deablo.  I’d now bump him into the same back-up IDP tier as MIN LB Nick Vigil and BUF LB AJ Klein.  His positional versatility may make him more valuable in some leagues.  Speaking of DBs...

DB

  • SEA S Ryan Neal played 100% of the snaps in his first start replacing Jamal Adams.  He was productive, faces LAR in week 15, and should be rostered in 100% of leagues.  If he’s available, pick him up. :hifive:
  • ATL S Erik Harris tore his pectoral and is out for the remainder of the season.    Jaylinn Hawkins will be his replacement moving forward.  Worth a pick-up if you need a DB.
  • NYJ S Elijah Riley played almost 100% of snaps and again outproduced Ashtyn Davis.  I’d officially move Davis into the “bench / cut if roster spot needed” category and Riley into the “should be rostered / start if needed” category. 🔦
  • LAC S Derwin James missed the game and was replaced by LAC S Trey Marshall, who put up 2 assists with 100% of snaps.  Ouch.  Nothing to see there if James misses another game.
  • Mentioned BAL CB Brandon Stephens last week.  Still playing safety, so he’s a pick-up in CB required leagues.
  • CLE S Ronnie Harrison missed the game last week and Grant Delpit stuffed the stat sheet.  If Harrison misses again, Delpit is worth a look.
  • MIN S Xavier Woods continues his decent play alongside Harrison Smith.  Available in some larger leagues.
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On 11/16/2021 at 2:13 PM, trader jake said:

 Only note long-term on this situation is the return of Kenneth Murray.  In theory he could make the Chargers LB group a mess moving forward.  Anyone have more concrete info to go on here?

First game of the season when he was healthy Ken had 10 total tackles and a fumble recovery.

Second game when healthy he had 8 total tackles.

Third game when he got injured, he had 2 total tackles and missed the next five games and the BYE week.

He returned week ten with 4 total tackles.  Thought he would improve and build on that but nah.

Week eleven shut out.

Week twelve, 1 tackle.

He's been shut out the last two weeks.  

One of two conclusions:

  1. He's still hampered with his injury
  2. First round bust
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5 hours ago, Bracie Smathers said:

One of two conclusions:

  1. He's still hampered with his injury
  2. First round bust

There is a 3rd option:  Doesn't fit the scheme they are currently running and will go somewhere else that uses him right and he excels.  I personally think it's a combo of 1 and 3.  

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These multiple COVID cases and rescheduled games are making roster decisions a real challenge this week. I was rolling with L Williams NYG at DL, now he appears to be Out this week. Dre’Mont Jones is next up, but he’s Doubtful. So, do I pick up J Greenard HOU, D Smoot JAX, M Sweat WFT , E Ogbah MIA or R Gregory DAL for my playoff run?

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4 hours ago, northern exposure said:

These multiple COVID cases and rescheduled games are making roster decisions a real challenge this week. I was rolling with L Williams NYG at DL, now he appears to be Out this week. Dre’Mont Jones is next up, but he’s Doubtful. So, do I pick up J Greenard HOU, D Smoot JAX, M Sweat WFT , E Ogbah MIA or R Gregory DAL for my playoff run?

I would pickup Gregory ASAP.  He shouldn't be on waivers

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With covid raging and injuries mounting, please double check inactive lists and remember…it’s out of our control.  That said, good luck in your playoff match-ups. 🏆


DL

  • LAC DE Joey Bosa isn’t vaccinated and will miss the fake football Final Four this weekend.  It is what it is.  His GMs were fortunate to have him listed as a defensive end, healthy, productive this entire season thus far.  Hopefully he’ll be back for week 17 and the teams he’s on can advance to their championship games without him.
  • WAS DE Montez Sweat returned to action (broken jaw / covid) and he immediately put up a sack and forced fumble.  If still available in small roster leagues, he’s an easy add.  “Not in my leagues!”
  • Along those same lines, please check on availability of DAL DE Randy Gregory.  “Not in my leagues!”
  • CHI DE Akiem Hicks was back and played just over 50% of snaps.  He was very active on MNF and is an immediate pick-up if available.  He’ll be tracking down SEA QB Russell Wilson and whoever the NYG start the next two weeks.
  • NO DT David Omyemata will be mentioned again here.  He should be rostered in more leagues than he is and the week 16 match-up against MIA is appealing as well.
  • NYJ DT Quinnen Williams aggravated his shoulder injury and missed some snaps this weekend.  He was replaced by NYJ DT Sheldon Rankins.  He’s a solid play in DT required leagues if Williams misses week 16.
  • MIN DE DJ Wonnum continues to be among the mid-season IDP pick-ups of the season.  He had a huge game and has been very solid since entering the Vikings starting line-up a month ago.
  • SEA DE Carlos Dunlap has been a disappointment all season long and is available in almost all leagues.  He had a big game on Tuesday night and looked active despite playing ~1/3 of the snaps.  Deep, deep leagues only due to the Seahawks facing CHI and DET the next two weeks.
  • TB DE William Gholston plays back-up snaps most weeks and has been largely unproductive this season.  I mention him for really, really deep leagues with match-ups against CAR and NYJ remaining.  A Hail Mary desperation pick-up only.
  • SF DE Arden Key has a ½ sack of better in 6 of the last 7 games.  He’s a back-up, playing back-up snaps, but in the most degenerate of leagues he is a decent deep league option.

LB

  • TB LB Lavonte David injured his foot and will miss the rest of the fantasy season.  This makes TB LB Kevin Minter a great pick-up and immediate starting option against CAR and NYJ.
  • Titans LBs – TEN LB Zach Cunningham (formerly w/ HOU) got is first playing time with the Titans.  He and TEN LB Rashaan Evans each played ~70% of snaps.  Surprisingly, that dropped TEN LB Jayon Brown to ~1/3 of the snaps…and TEN LB David Long could also be back this weekend.  Unless definitive word leaks from a beat writer I’m not sure any of those LB’s are startable if all four are active.  However, playing against the 49ers running offense could make it worth it.  ??  What a total cluster.
  • Raiders LBs - LV LB Cory Littleton was replaced in the line-up by LV S Divine Deablo. who promptly hurt his shoulder.  Also, LV LB Denzel Perryman (ankle) was out again and LV LB KJ Wright played 100% of snaps.  With a benching and those two injury situations (and Abram at S – see DB list below), Wright becomes an interesting pick-up.  He was productive for years in Seattle and could make for a sneaky fantasy football playoff start this weekend.  Be sure to check reports throughout the week though.
  • Browns LBs – CLE LB Jeremiah Owuso-Koramoah played nearly 100% of snaps and was again productive.  Start with reckless abandon.  CLE LB Anthony Walker returned from covid and played ~60% of snaps.  I’d have a tough time starting him in week 16.
  • DET LB Alex Anzalone and DET LB Josh Woods both missed the game Sunday.  This enabled DET LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin to stay on the field for almost all the snaps and rookie LB Derrick Barnes played ~60%.  If multiple linebackers are inactive again, GMs could get another start out of Reeves-Maybin, but I’d probably avoid the situation all together.  Kind of a mess to project. 
  • KC LB Nick Bolton played almost all the snaps and had a huge game.  As long as Willie Gay is out, he’s the Chiefs linebacker worth starting, maybe even Anthony Hitchens in the right match-up and you're in need.
  • HOU LB’s Kamu Grugier-Hill and Christian Kirksey were both out with covid.  Both are startable next week if active.  In their places HOU LB Neville Hewitt and HOU LB Garret Wallow had solid games.  Hewitt is the fill-in if only one starter is out, but both are startable if the starting ILBs are out again.
  • CHI LB Alec Ogletree played 100% of snaps and was productive.  That snap percentage is higher than normal, but he makes for a decent play in larger leagues against the SEA rushing attack week 16.  Ditto with CHI LB Robert Quinn.
  • BAL LB Patrick Queen is playing almost 90% of snaps and put up some nice numbers.  Worth starting for most GMs.  BAL LB Josh Bynes also put up a very nice stat line, but he did so playing under ~60% of snaps.  He’s a much, mush riskier start in week 16.  GMs beware.
  • CAR LB Shaq Thompson had a down week, but he did play 100% of snaps.  The Bills don’t run the ball effectively and the remaining match-ups against TB and NO should provide more opportunities.
  • LAC LB Kyzir White played 100% of snaps and LAC LB Drue Tranquill fell to ~2/3 of snaps.  Makes one startable and one a risky play (assuming the playing time sticks).  I’ve cleared my rosters of Charger LBs throughout the season, but if you’re still on that train – good luck.
  • CIN LB Logan Wilson missed last week and CIN LB Germaine Pratt had a huge game in his absence.  Continue to start him if Wilson is out again.  If Wilson returns, Pratt would probably drop back to ~2/3 of snaps.  Playable if desperate or in very deep leagues.
  • DEN LB Kenny Young missed with a concussion and he was replaced by DEN LB Jonas Griffith.  He played ~80% of snaps and was productive.  If Young is out again, Griffith is a deep roster option.
  • GB LB Krys Barnes plays ~60% of snaps most weeks, but he is a moderately productive player when he’s out there.  In the most degenerate of leagues he may be a desperation option this week against the Browns rushing attack.
  • WAS S Landon Collins had two big plays early on Tuesday night but left the game for a bit with a tweaked hamstring.  If he is inactive in week 16, the playing time beneficiary would again be WAS LB Jamin Davis.

DB

  • LV S Johnathan Abram had a nice game on MNF, but he left with a dislocated shoulder.  Check his status before putting him in your line-ups this week.  LV S Dallin Leavitt is listed as his back-up, but (considering how much LV plays with their LBs and S) there are better options available. 
  • LAC S Derwin James injured his hamstring and was again replaced by LAC S Trey Marshall, who put up slightly better numbers in his second game of significant action.  In larger roster leagues James becomes a real roll of the dice if active.  In small roster leagues, his risk / reward may be more gamble than it’s worth.  Tough call.
  • MIA S Brandon Jones returned and played ~60% of snaps.  He was productive in those snaps, but I’m not sure I’d be able to start him against the Saints this weekend.  In large roster leagues he’s again an option at least.
  • NYJ S Elijah Riley was productive before suffering a concussion.  Sounds like he’ll be active this week and still makes for a solid play against JAX.  However, if he’s out, I’d be more comfortable rolling with NYJ Ashtyn Davis.  Not sure I could start Davis if Riley is active though.
  • DET S Tracy Walker (covid) and DET CB Jerry Jacobs (placed on IR) were both out, making DET S Dean Marlow an every snap player.  Worth picking up if still available, and he could be a starter if needed.
  • MIN S Xavier Woods had a down week, so I looked into it.  He did play 100% of snaps and looks like a decent bounce back candidate against the Rams passing attack in week 16.
  • TB S Jordan Whitehead returned from injury and played 100% of snaps.  If he was dropped in a small roster league, pick him up.
  • WAS S Camren Curl (covid) was replaced by WAS S Jeremy Reaves.  Option if Curl is out again.
  • BAL S Chuck Clark (covid) was replaced by BAL S Geno Stone.  Option if Clark is out again.
  • LAR S Jordan Fuller (covid) was replaced by LAR S Nick Scott.  Option if Fuller is out again.
  • ATL S Erik Harris was replaced by ATL S Jaylinn Hawkins.  Large roster fill-in if needed.
  • HOU S Justin Reid was replaced by HOU S Jonathan Owens.  Large roster fill-in if needed.


Happy Holidays to all you fellow IDP GMs. :thanks:

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1 hour ago, northern exposure said:

I survived Gregory’s goose egg in my 1st round matchup. Having a hard time trusting him in this week’s playoff game.

That is the nature of DL play.  There are very few guys that avoid the goose eggs.  Last week Lawrence was beastly but Gregory was still causing havoc just without the stats.  I believe he had a QB hit which counts for points for me so it wasn't a goose egg.  Regardless Washington is a good matchup for him and I would put him in depending on my other choices.

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Gregory's zero burned me in a couple of leagues.  Meanwhile, Wonnum scored like 32 points for my opponent in one league, while he sat on my bench/taxi squad in two others.  Predicting which DL's are going to have big games is certainly not a perfect science.  I'm basically of the mindset that I'll pick a couple, hoping at least one does something, and if both do, it's a bonus.  

This week, I need to pick two of these.... Jordan vs MIA, Burns vs TB, Ogunjobi vs BAL, Allen vs IND, Muhammed @ ARI, and Wonnum vs LAR.  Thinking Jordan and Allen, but I'm considering all options.  Really no idea, other than I know it's highly unlikely that Wonnum repeats last week (and probably more likely that he does nothing, given how my season has gone).  

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15 hours ago, Gally said:

That is the nature of DL play.  There are very few guys that avoid the goose eggs.  Last week Lawrence was beastly but Gregory was still causing havoc just without the stats.  I believe he had a QB hit which counts for points for me so it wasn't a goose egg.  Regardless Washington is a good matchup for him and I would put him in depending on my other choices.

I understand that is the nature of DL play. But Gregory is more boom/bust than most because he has almost zero floor due to his lack of tackles. In the playoffs I prefer “safer” options at the DL position because I don’t want that 0 staring me in the face when I check my lineup.

ETA - I’m debating between Emmanuel Ogbah, Cam Jordan and Leonard Williams this week.

Edited by northern exposure
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Anybody have any insight on the DET Safety situation?  Walker was on a nice run of double-digit scoring weeks (six straight and seven of past eight) before missing the past two weeks.  If healthy, I would have assumed he would be back as a productive start.  However, projections here show both Harris and Marlowe ahead (and well ahead) of him this week.  Maybe that's just because he was questionable earlier in the week (I've noticed that with other players).  Or, is there something I haven't seen that indicates he's losing his job?  

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21 minutes ago, Golden Gopher said:

Anybody have any insight on the DET Safety situation?  Walker was on a nice run of double-digit scoring weeks (six straight and seven of past eight) before missing the past two weeks.  If healthy, I would have assumed he would be back as a productive start.  However, projections here show both Harris and Marlowe ahead (and well ahead) of him this week.  Maybe that's just because he was questionable earlier in the week (I've noticed that with other players).  Or, is there something I haven't seen that indicates he's losing his job?  

He has been out due to injury.  The job is his.

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Championship week!!  🏆 If you’ve gotten there, a majority of your line-up decisions are probably already locked in, but for that last flex or injury replacement we have the following information.
DL

I’m going rapid fire along the defensive line, as most of these possible options have previously been discussed.

“Not in my leagues!” 😁

  • DAL DE Randy Gregory
  • WAS DE Montez Sweat
  • MIN DE DJ Wonnum
  • ARI DE Zach Allen

Next Tier

  • PHI DE Josh Sweat
  • JAX DE Dawuane Smoot is now playing ~90% of snaps.  JAX may stink, but that level of playing time makes him a startable option in all leagues.
  • NO DT David Omyemata and DT Carl Granderson
  • CHI DE Akiem Hicks
  • GB DT Kenny Clark
  • NYJ DT Sheldon Rankins if NYJ DT Quinnen Williams is again inactive

Deeper options 🎲

  • DAL DE Dorance Armstrong and DE Chauncey Golston
  • SEA DE Carlos Dunlap and DE Darrell Taylor
  • TB DE William Gholston
  • SF DE Arden Key

LB

  • TEN LB’s – Rashaan Evans and Zach Cunningham each played ~75% of snaps while Jayon Brown was around 1/3 of the snaps but has now been placed on the covid list.  If David Long returns next week this could make all three options risky.  If Long is still out Evans and Cunningham are good to go.
  • HOU LB’s – Kamu Grugier-Hill was again out and Christian Kirksey played 1/3 of the defensive snaps in his return from covid.  HOU LB Neville Hewitt was productive and played 100% of snaps while HOU LB Garret Wallow played ~80%.  If Grugier-Hill is out in week 17 I’d again fire up Hewitt.  If Grugier-Hill is active I’m not sure who would get the snaps and be worth starting.  Any info here?
  • If IND LB Darius Leonard is out again EJ Speed is the replacement.  Note:  Bobby Okereke ended with 5 tackles and 3 assists week 16, but he entered the final drive of the game against ARI with only 2 assists.  He put up the majority of his stats in that final Kyler Murray dump down pass fest in the final 4 minutes of the game.  Not sure many GMs have the LB depth to bench Okereke, but I’d consider it in small roster leagues (or at least temper expectations a bit).
  • SF LB Azeez Al-Shaair was injured in the game last Thursday.  Be sure to check his status before the game.  If he’s out Fred Warner could be a monster against the Texans.  SF LB Samson Ebukam is a degenerate league option only, likely to pin his ears back against the Texans offensive line in week 17.
  • NO LB Zach Baun played alongside Pete Werner with Demario Davis (covid) and Kwon Alexander out.
  • NYG LB Tae Crowder had a down week, especially considering he was facing the PHI running attack.  🔎  I looked into it and he was on the field for 100% of snaps and nothing else odd stood out to me.  Just one of those games.  Hopefully he was just saving those points for week 17 against CHI.  Also, Lorenzo Carter remains a decent boom/bust option if you’re desperate.
  • DEN LB Jonas Griffith filled in for Kenny Young (concussion) and was very productive with ~80% of the snaps.  If Young is again out, Griffith makes for a great start against LAC.
  • If JAX LB Myles Jack is out again JAX LB Chapelle Russell is the replacement.  Note:  Damien Wilson bumped up to ~85% of snaps and remains a mediocre option either way.
  • LAR LB Ernest Jones suffered a high ankle sprain and will probably miss week 17.  If he does, that makes Troy Reeder a good starting option against the BAL rushing attack.
  • DET LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin looks like the safest option in Detroit.  Woods was out and Derrick Barnes still only played ~1/3 of the snaps.  Even if Woods is back next week I’d guess Reeves-Maybin is still a decent play against SEA.
  • ARI LB Isaiah Simmons played 2/3 of snaps before getting dinged up.  He was replaced on the field by Joe Walker.  My assumption would have been Zavon Collins would have been the replacement.  ??  If Simmons is out I’d be hard pressed to put either Walker or Collins into my line-up unless specific word breaks on who would be filling in (or if one of them is inactive). ⤵️
  • PIT LB Robert Spillane filled in for Devin Bush (covid).  If Bush misses week 17, Spillane is a decent option against CLE.
  • PHI LB Davion Taylor may be back for week 17.  If he’s active, that makes starting Alex Singleton a bit riskier. Just an FYI if you have other great options at LB to plug in and Taylor is active.  Either way, continue to start TJ Edwards with reckless abandon.
  • LAC LB Drue Tranquill suffered a leg injury after playing ~20% of snaps.  He was productive in those limited snaps but becomes an unappealing option next week even if he’s active against DEN.  If he’s out, Kenneth Murray becomes a really, really deep play if you’re desperate.  Read the Chargers are looking at him as an edge rushing option a bit, so I’m not sure what to believe.  Start at your own risk.
  • LV LB’s – Denzel Perryman, Cory Littleton, KJ Wright, Patrick Onwuasor and Will Compton are all on the covid list right now. 😟  If that holds and they’re all inactive, LV S Divine Deablo would become a default start against the IND running game (which should be heavy without Carson Wentz).  In degenerate leagues Marquel Lee could be a desperation play.

DB

  • LAC S Derwin James was active, but didn’t participate in warmups and wasn’t on the field.  WTH?!  I couldn’t start him unless it’s explicitly stated he will be active and playing in week 17 by the team.  Even then I wouldn’t blame GMs for benching him (especially in smaller roster leagues).
  • IND S George Odum filled-in for Khari Willis and had a big game.  If Willis is inactive again, start away. 
  • WAS S Jeremy Reaves had a good week with Landon Collins out and Jamin Davis a late scratch.

If you’re desperate in a non-CB required league these could be decent spot starts 🔈

  • ATL CB AJ Terrell is a good option in week 17 vs BUF.
  • Ditto with NYJ CB Brandin Echols.  Note:  Bryce Hall is on the covid list and unlikely to play week 17.
  • Deeper options include ARI CB Antonio Hamilton against the Cowboys passing attack.
  • CLE CB MJ Stewart would be an option if the Browns have a handful of defensive backs out again.
  • And I’ll mention looking into the active BAL CB’s against the Rams passing attack if you are really hard up for a Hail Mary DB play.

Good luck to all still in action. If this helps, let me know. 📢

Edited by trader jake
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1 minute ago, northern exposure said:

It looks like Germaine Pratt is on the COVID list and I was using him as my replacement for   Logan Wilson. I haven’t heard that Wilson will return from injury this week, so any insight on a replacement LB?

Hewitt or Wallow from Houston if Grugier-Hill is still out.

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Going deep for the Finals:

Need 1 defensive player.  Assuming all of them have their situations work out:

Zach Cunningham--kind of iffy after his "ok" game last week and Long potentially back.  

Jonas Griffith--Browning out.  Young questionable.  Seems like he should be in line for a lot of snaps either way.

Brandon Jones--has been really good, needs to clear Covid protocols.  

Appreciate any feedback.

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1 hour ago, jm192 said:

Going deep for the Finals:

Need 1 defensive player.  Assuming all of them have their situations work out:

Zach Cunningham--kind of iffy after his "ok" game last week and Long potentially back.  

Jonas Griffith--Browning out.  Young questionable.  Seems like he should be in line for a lot of snaps either way.

Brandon Jones--has been really good, needs to clear Covid protocols.  

Appreciate any feedback.

I would not at Cunnigham unless two of the KB's are ruled out.  Too many players to contend with for snaps.

 

Jones depends in health and if your scoring makes sense to play a DB over a LB.  

 

I haven't seen Griffith so I do 't have much comment.  

 

I would check on the Houston situation as Hewitt or Wallow could be solid plays.

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Posted (edited)

Great season, hopefully many of you won that championship! 🏆

Either way, do me a favor and post that week 17 defense if you were still playing.  Just wondering how many ended up with pick-ups we discussed here vs had solid stars / keepers that drove their IDP success.

In my main local league I traded away stars during the season to land some depth on offense and draft picks for next season.  This was partially due to the work I was putting in on IDP (to write-up and post this info each Tuesday afternoon), and I began to see opportunities to add some IDP talent via the waiver wire if I was willing to spot start players more.  In this particular league I sent LAC DE Joey Bosa, IND LB Darius Leonard, and MIN LB Eric Kendricks packing in various moves... emboldened by being more on top of IDP and with the open opportunities for production that injuries (and Covid absences) would inevitably provide.  Also made an IDP swap that I wouldn't have made in previous years because it involved giving away a young LB prospect.  Sent KC LB Nick Bolton and WAS S Landon Collins out for MIN S Harrison Smith and MIA LB Jerome Baker. I was sick of picking wrong on DBs, so I opted to solidify one of those spots with Smith's relative consistency.

Just one GMs experience, but once I was willing to sell LB production it really made a huge difference.  This is probably a path I'll continue to explore in future seasons.  In that league, week 17 I started the following IDPs:

  • LAR DE Aaron Donald (protected IDP star)
  • DAL DE DeMarcus Lawrence (pick-up wk 12)
  • MIA LB Jerome Baker (trade)
  • NYG LB Tae Crowder (pick-up wk 4)
  • HOU LB Tamu Grugier-Hill (pick-up wk 6)
  • ARI S Budda Baker (protected keeper)
  • PIT S Minkah Fitzpatrick (signed via offseason FA)
  • MIN S Harrison Smith (trade)

At various points this team also picked up and started: NYJ LB Quincy Williams (picked him up twice), KC S Daniel Sorenson, TEN LB David Long, MIN DE Everson Griffin, JAX LB Damien Wilson, DAL DE Randy Gregory, NYJ Ashtyn Davis, BUF LB AJ Klein, and JAX DE Dawuane Smoot.  Also snagged ARI LB Zavon Collins wk11 as a probable keeper this offseason as well.

So let's see those week 17 IDP line-ups and any thoughts you have on strategy related to short term IDP pick-ups (or anything else you're willing to share).

Edited by trader jake
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3 minutes ago, trader jake said:

Great season, hopefully many of you won that championship! 🏆

Either way, do me a favor and post that week 17 defense if you were still playing.  Just wondering how many ended up with pick-ups we discussed here vs had solid stars / keepers that drove their IDP success.

In my main local league I traded away stars during the season to land some depth on offense and draft picks for next season.  This was partially due to the work I was putting in on IDP (to write-up and post this info each Tuesday afternoon), and I began to see opportunities to add some IDP talent via the waiver wire if I was willing to spot start players more.

 

The bolded is exactly why IDP is far better than the typical FF league.  This is how FF used to be when you had to do research yourself and find your sleepers and unknown talent.  It's why I believe IDP is much more about skill than a typical league where you can find all the info you want in 5 minutes and can basically autodraft and compete.

 

By doing this work it allows you to wait later on your IDP players and improve your offensive side once everyone else is taking the name IDP guys and you can find value later because of scheme or change of scenery for a guy.  Threads like this are a key component and you do great work in bringing up things that lead to talking points and further discussion by the great people on this thread.  

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