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The “oops I won’t do that again”… (1 Viewer)

Started Mooney over Chubba at flex.  :doh:  
Started Anthony Walker (5) over Alex Singleton (26) at LB :doh:  

ah well. At least I’m 4-1. 

 
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These are always good to reflect on.

Lots of times it'll be just an aberration where your process was good. Probably good to dig into that some too. 

 
zamboni said:
This and several others here seem like 20/20 hindsight.

Hurts has been balling out and offers a nice floor with his rushing totals. Could have justifiably flipped a coin here.
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Mine definitely are. Just sucks knowing I coulda been 5-0 with the right lineup. 

On the other hand, being without CMC & Ridley, and dealing with Mixon made it a very difficult week to pick from my bench depth. 

I swept my division out of the gate, still have a 1 game lead & a pretty soft schedule. Hopefully my guys can get right & get back on the field. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Mine definitely are. Just sucks knowing I coulda been 5-0 with the right lineup. 

On the other hand, being without CMC & Ridley, and dealing with Mixon made it a very difficult week to pick from my bench depth. 

I swept my division out of the gate, still have a 1 game lead & a pretty soft schedule. Hopefully my guys can get right & get back on the field. 
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Yes. 

 
Sam Quentin said:
Pay too much attention to consensus rankings
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This and even looking at accurate fantasy rankers per position snd trying to get an edge. It’s all a crock of #### man- just do your own rankings. I started trey lance over Herbert due to rushing ceiling as an underdog snd guess what/ that literally killed my season j think. All because of the stupid noise of the crowd 

 
This is actually a pretty huge area for discussion. And probably not what y'all want to hear as I'm guessing this is more a venting thread.

But the "wrong decision" vs "bad decision" is a thing.

I told hundreds of thousands of people a few years back that LeVeon Bell would come to his senses and not hold out for the season.

Obviously, that was the wrong decision. I failed our customers who expect us to make right decisions.

But knowing what I knew then, and factoring everything in, I don't think it was a "bad" decision. Meaning, knowing what I knew at the time, I feel certain I'd make the same decision again. 

It's a good excercise to walk through. 

 
In poker terms it’s trying not to be results-oriented in terms of decision making.  
 

The equivalent would be folding J3 to a preflop raise that would have put you all in and then having the board come JJ3 - no, you still shouldn’t have called the guy with AA’s raise.  You had a 13% chance of winning the pot.

 
TampaMike19 said:
This and even looking at accurate fantasy rankers per position snd trying to get an edge. It’s all a crock of #### man- just do your own rankings. I started trey lance over Herbert due to rushing ceiling as an underdog snd guess what/ that literally killed my season j think. All because of the stupid noise of the crowd 
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Which expert ranked Lance above Herbert?

 
Joe Bryant said:
This is actually a pretty huge area for discussion. And probably not what y'all want to hear as I'm guessing this is more a venting thread.

But the "wrong decision" vs "bad decision" is a thing.

I told hundreds of thousands of people a few years back that LeVeon Bell would come to his senses and not hold out for the season.

Obviously, that was the wrong decision. I failed our customers who expect us to make right decisions.

But knowing what I knew then, and factoring everything in, I don't think it was a "bad" decision. Meaning, knowing what I knew at the time, I feel certain I'd make the same decision again. 

It's a good excercise to walk through. 
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Chris Harris (the podcaster, not the CB) talks about "Category 1" and "Category 2" questions. The former are things like, "Is this guy any good?" or "How does he fit into his team's offense?" Folks like Harris (and Joe) have built entire businesses around answering questions like those.

The latter is stuff like "How will the Urban Meyer scandal affect Jax's fantasy options?" or, well, "Will this guy sit out an entire season to try to prove a point?" No one knows the answer to those, not even a fantasy expert. They're impossible to know. Anyone who drafted Bell that year was taking an (un)calculated risk. It could have worked out, it could have (and did) blow up in your face. So I agree with you that the process was probably correct, especially since something like that had never happened before. If someone were to say, "I drafted Bell because Joe told me I should," then that person is an idiot. But if someone drafted him knowing there was an unquantifiable level of risk, and that the payoff was an RB1 while the downside was a wasted pick, they would have no reason to be mad at anyone. And if someone says, "I will never ever draft a RB who is holding out in preseason," that's an entirely defensible position, but they also need to recognize that they're eliminating the opportunity cost of extracting excess value from the pick.

I faced a similar dilemma drafting Saquon in the first round this year. The pace of his recovery from his ACL tear was pure Category 2. The first couple weeks, it looked like I may have screwed up. Then it was starting to look good. Now he's injured again, so who knows? But as with you and Bell, I'm satisfied with my process.

 
I used to be very self-critical when guys on my bench would outscore my lineup. 

Even the "trust my gut, not the experts" thing tends to only seem more like a thing because you only remember when it goes wrong and you had an opposing instinct. Almost benched Pitts for Knox this week which wouldn't have cost me my week but still kind of a reminder to trust the process.

Trust your process, learn and move on. You don't have predictive powers. 

Most of the people here work hard for results. Sometimes, things just don't go your way. C'est la vie.

 
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I saw the Patriot D was available so I put out a bigger than normal bid. I figured they had Houston this week and the Jets in two weeks. Also, I wanted to make sure the guy I was playing didn’t use them against me. Brilliant!

When I looked to see if I won the bid I realized it was the Pats team kicker not the D. 
 

I won the bid and now have a back up kicker.

 
TampaMike19 said:
This and even looking at accurate fantasy rankers per position snd trying to get an edge. It’s all a crock of #### man- just do your own rankings. I started trey lance over Herbert due to rushing ceiling as an underdog snd guess what/ that literally killed my season j think. All because of the stupid noise of the crowd 
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Do a lot of experts track results? In my experience, no but I don't often look at consensus rankings or positional pick lists.

How would that even be scored to determine accuracy? If I rank 32 QBs do I get a point for each QB who finishes above a QB I ranked lower? Do I really deserve a point when Josh Allen finishes above Jacoby Brisset & Tyler Heinicke?

If I rank Kyler Murray 3rd and he finishes 4th is that a fail?

Judging success & failure of ranking actually seems pretty complicated, with plenty of opportunity to overstate success.

And that's before we even try to factor in different scoring systems & roster limits which adds infinite more complications.

The best I can offer is the WDIS thread I am running each week. I track all my either/or recommendations (only those involving two players, not "pick 2 of 5" type scenarios for the reasons stated above) for a given week, then in the following weeks thread I post how many I got correct, according to my specific league scoring rules, and how many a coin flip got correct. Right now the coin and I are neck-and-neck.

All that being said picking Lance over Herbert seems like an obvious mistake of overthinking a situation.

To be fair, Lance ran the ball 16 times (and passed it 29) so the opportunity to exceed Herbert did exist. Herbert won't outproduce Lance every week but he should most weeks.

 
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