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Week Seven DFS (1 Viewer)

SeniorVBDStudent

SeniorVBDStudent

Footballguy
Thursday, October 18th
8:20 PM EST : Denver ( 5 ) at Cleveland ( -5 ) —- T: 44

Sunday, October 24th
1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -4.5 ) at Tennessee ( 4.5 ) —- T: 56
1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( (Pick) ) at Miami ( (Pick) ) —- T: 48
1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 10 ) at Green Bay ( -10 ) —- T: 49
1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 7 ) at New England ( -7 ) —- T: 42.5
1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 6.5 ) at Baltimore ( -6.5 ) —- T: 47.5
1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( -2.5 ) at NY Giants ( 2.5 ) —- T: 44
4:05 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 3 ) at Las Vegas ( -3 ) —- T: 48
4:05 PM EST : Detroit ( 15.5 ) at LA Rams ( -15.5 ) —- T: 50
4:25 PM EST : Houston ( 17 ) at Arizona ( -17 ) —- T: 48
4:25 PM EST : Chicago ( 13 ) at Tampa Bay ( -13 ) —- T: 48
8:20 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 4 ) at San Francisco ( -4 ) —- T: 45

Monday, October 25th
8:15 PM EST : New Orleans ( -3.5 ) at Seattle ( 3.5 ) —- T: 44

 
RB Tiers

henry

jones, jacobs, >> henderson, lenny, connor

d harris, davis/patterson, kc d will, >> mixon, barkley?

hubbard >> swift,gibson, mkissic, rojo, helvitica, murray

brown/ahmed, RS, Carter, phi rbs, hou rbs

WR Tiers (includes top TEs)

cupp, adams, dhop*, tyreek, kelce, chase, djmoore

woods, cridley, pitts, waddle(?), hunter, evans, godwin, brown, andrews, hollywood, devonte, waller

b cooks, kirk, green, gesicki, julio, ajbrown?, davis, meyers, arob, higgins, boyd

amon ra, cobb, van jeff, djax, rondel, tonyan, thock, higbee, jonnu, mooney

gage, hurst, mecole, quez, reagor

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Probably will do same as last week - 4 LUs and enter them in a variety of contests.   

I know it changes over the week, but early in the week their top teams/stacks were:  LaR, KC, Az, GB, TB.    Leverage stacks were:  LaR, TB, AZ, KC, GB.   

Basically it seems that Balt is overowned every week?

What I thought was interesting is that this is the biggest gap I've seen between the top stacks and the rest.  Ie -  LaR was 25%, KC 20%, and then Az at 9%.   That's why the leverage is high on LaR - because they have Stafford's ownership around 8%.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
I know it changes over the week, but early in the week their top teams/stacks were:  LaR, KC, Az, GB, TB.    Leverage stacks were:  LaR, TB, AZ, KC, GB. 
Click to expand...


I looked at the scheduled and my first thought was to use these 4 QBs in stacks:  Rodgers, Brady, Stafford, and Murray

So my initial thoughts again lineup with the leverage scores.  Based on my bad performance last week I'm not sure that is a good thing  :lol:  

 
Steeler said:
I looked at the scheduled and my first thought was to use these 4 QBs in stacks:  Rodgers, Brady, Stafford, and Murray

So my initial thoughts again lineup with the leverage scores.  Based on my bad performance last week I'm not sure that is a good thing  :lol:  
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For the past 2-3 weeks, I think one of their top leverage have been where you wanted to go.  I think you are on the right path.  Gpps are hard.  

 
Steeler said:
I looked at the scheduled and my first thought was to use these 4 QBs in stacks:  Rodgers, Brady, Stafford, and Murray

So my initial thoughts again lineup with the leverage scores.  Based on my bad performance last week I'm not sure that is a good thing  :lol:  
Click to expand...
To further refine that list, I have Stafford and Murray as slightly better than Brady and Rodgers because Chicago (Brady's matchup) is better on defense than Houston, Washington and Detroit, and because Rodgers has the best RB of the four (Jones versus Henderson, Connor and Fournette).  Stafford's matchup is a little better than Murray's but because Henderson > Connor/Edwards I consider Stafford vs Murray a push.

 
Damn work!  I have not been around much this week.  Between work and the NBA season getting started, I have not spent much time on the NFL.  I will continue to play the NFL, but with less time, I will be playing less, since I will not feel as confidence with my research (my research -- kind of laughable based on my results this season!).  I will try to contribute, if I stumble across something that I think might be helpful for others.  I will probably just build around the obvious games (kc/ten, det/lar, was/gb, hou/ari, & chi/tb).  I will also be dumping money into the dumpster fire of a Thursday night game.  I play on FD and I will have both kickers tonight -- the biggest question is should I slot one of them into the MVP position.  

 
FatNate said:
Damn work!  I have not been around much this week.  Between work and the NBA season getting started, I have not spent much time on the NFL.  I will continue to play the NFL, but with less time, I will be playing less, since I will not feel as confidence with my research (my research -- kind of laughable based on my results this season!).  I will try to contribute, if I stumble across something that I think might be helpful for others.  I will probably just build around the obvious games (kc/ten, det/lar, was/gb, hou/ari, & chi/tb).  I will also be dumping money into the dumpster fire of a Thursday night game.  I play on FD and I will have both kickers tonight -- the biggest question is should I slot one of them into the MVP position.  
Click to expand...


Well we all missed an easy opportunity to pad our bankroll.  With the contests last night you could pick whoever your wanted.  I assembled 5 lineups and all won.  Unfurtuantely these were in the 5 cent pooch and I meant to duplicated the entires to the 150 team max but got busy.  There's been overlay in these small contest.  Great way to build a bank roll.

 
BassNBrew said:
Well we all missed an easy opportunity to pad our bankroll.  With the contests last night you could pick whoever your wanted.  I assembled 5 lineups and all won.  Unfurtuantely these were in the 5 cent pooch and I meant to duplicated the entires to the 150 team max but got busy.  There's been overlay in these small contest.  Great way to build a bank roll.
Click to expand...
Sometimes I don't think clearly.  I threw a total of $5 at 3 lineups none of which featured D'Ernest.  Common sense should have told me that although Hunt and Chubb were out the run blocking o line was still in place so he was an obvious captain.  #moron.

 
Odd week with the huge spreads and the one lone game that looks like the one you have to have pieces in.   

I guess a question I have is do you need a player or two from KC/Tenn in all Lus?     Fading that game or doing a D.Will/Firkser correlation would be a way to instantly get different in gpps, albeit risky.   

The top stacks chart still have KC and LaR as by far the best stacks, and by far the best leverage.  

Not sure what a LU will look like but I thought about starting a LU with 2 pieces each from KC and LAR, then putting another stack around that.  I will toy with that a little this am.  

 
Fastest pace games are:  Philly/LV, Atl/Mia, LaR/Det, and Car/NYG

Best Run potential (OL vs DL) are:  TB, LaR, Tenn, KC, Wash, AZ, Car.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Sometimes I don't think clearly.  I threw a total of $5 at 3 lineups none of which featured D'Ernest.  Common sense should have told me that although Hunt and Chubb were out the run blocking o line was still in place so he was an obvious captain.  #moron.
Click to expand...


I had D'Ernest in all five.  Given no salary cap, lineup construction was both QBs, D'Ernest, one of the Denver RBs, and then Sutton or Landry.  D'Ernest was just over 50% owned.

I knew none of these lineups would win real money, but last night should have been about taking advantage of an opportunity to build bankroll.

 
KarmaPolice said:
Odd week with the huge spreads and the one lone game that looks like the one you have to have pieces in.   

I guess a question I have is do you need a player or two from KC/Tenn in all Lus?     Fading that game or doing a D.Will/Firkser correlation would be a way to instantly get different in gpps, albeit risky.   

The top stacks chart still have KC and LaR as by far the best stacks, and by far the best leverage.  

Not sure what a LU will look like but I thought about starting a LU with 2 pieces each from KC and LAR, then putting another stack around that.  I will toy with that a little this am.  
Click to expand...
What bothers me about the KC game is that Tyreek and Kelce appear to be dealing with lingering health issues.

I'm interested in the Stafford vs Detroit revenge narrative and the Nuk/JJWatt vs Houston revenge narrative.

Still working on distilling my targetted stacks....

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
What bothers me about the KC game is that Tyreek and Kelce appear to be dealing with lingering health issues.

I'm interested in the Stafford vs Detroit revenge narrative and the Nuk/JJWatt vs Houston revenge narrative.

Still working on distilling my targetted stacks....
Click to expand...
The lu I started with I put in D.will and Hardman for cheap pieces.  then Hendserson and Kupp, and it left enough for a TB stack, but not Henry.  

As usual Henry is a huge decision point. 

 
KarmaPolice said:
The lu I started with I put in D.will and Hardman for cheap pieces.  then Hendserson and Kupp, and it left enough for a TB stack, but not Henry.  

As usual Henry is a huge decision point. 
Click to expand...
I find it interesting when the DFS talking heads orient the discussion to be whether or not to eat the chalk or fade the public in exposure to a player like Henry.  I think that way of looking at it is only valid for the max entry crowd.  When bringing forward a short list of entries...whether it be 4 or 24....it really comes down to can I define a list a cheap complements to Henry that let me build a viable lineup.  This week that might include players like Waddle, Goedart, Devonte Smith, Jalen Hurtz, Mike Davis etc.  You have to decide if that Henry + Cheapos lineup is better than "rich stack" (Stafford, etc, Henderson, etc. Davante Adams, etc. Kelce etc.).  Most recently I've been trying to "rank" my core players and core lineups and make a conscious effort to be willing to concentrate these plays / avoid dilution of these plays....rolling with 4 QBs instead of a mixture of lineups with 8 QBs for example.  Easier said than done.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
I find it interesting when the DFS talking heads orient the discussion to be whether or not to eat the chalk or fade the public in exposure to a player like Henry.  I think that way of looking at it is only valid for the max entry crowd.  When bringing forward a short list of entries...whether it be 4 or 24....it really comes down to can I define a list a cheap complements to Henry that let me build a viable lineup.  This week that might include players like Waddle, Goedart, Devonte Smith, Jalen Hurtz, Mike Davis etc.  You have to decide if that Henry + Cheapos lineup is better than "rich stack" (Stafford, etc, Henderson, etc. Davante Adams, etc. Kelce etc.).  Most recently I've been trying to "rank" my core players and core lineups and make a conscious effort to be willing to concentrate these plays / avoid dilution of these plays....rolling with 4 QBs instead of a mixture of lineups with 8 QBs for example.  Easier said than done.
Click to expand...
I get what you are saying.  I think it's more important for the max entry crowd and setting exposures, but I also think it's a piece of the puzzle even for 3max gpps.  Their ownership projections are more for the huge gpps as well, and I think 3max tend to be "chalkier" so I'd imagine that if Henry is 30% in the milly maker, he might be closer to 40% a 3max.  

IMO what ownership might be more for in the SE or 3max is more about construction.   Especially a week like this, where there is no direct pivot off a 30% or so owned Henry.   If he is popular, and it looks like guys like Adams, Hill, Kupp are popular, it's starts to paint a picture of really popular LU construction for a 3max gpp, and you have to make leverage and low % decisions based on that info.   Even for 3 max I have to try to be a little different to pass 17,797 other entries.  

 
One thing that annoyed me looking at the ownership was Miles Sanders was RB5.   Thought that might a lower owned option.  

 
TwinTurbo said:
I'm going heavy on Ravens stacks this week. 
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I like it when I consider tiers of stacks, and concentration of the stacks ("knowing" it will be lamar/hollywood/andrews) but I'm concerned cinci is a little tougher than LAC and I think there may be an opportunity for Devonte Freeman here.  So I'm considering going heavy on Ravens...but within this tier also considering eagles, raiders, falcons and pats (lol).  I keep thinking the Falcons might open a can on Miami....

 
One team very likely to go off is Cincinatti....because I'm avoiding Cincy stacks and completely fading Mixon....just a few WR one-offs.

 
I am focusing around Rodgers and Brady.  I am also stacking Williams/Brown in those lineups, along with Henderson.  I am not worrying much about a run back from Chicago or Washington.  This means I am falling on Sanders/Booker/McKissic/Edmonds at RB and Waddle/Meyers/Smith/Higgins/Boyd/Bateman/Hardman/Anderson at WR.  I have no real lean at TE, so I am using who ever fits with the money I have left over, which is usually 5k-6k.  I have too much NYJ and NYG in defense, but I haven’t figured out a way to get off them. 

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
I like it when I consider tiers of stacks, and concentration of the stacks ("knowing" it will be lamar/hollywood/andrews) but I'm concerned cinci is a little tougher than LAC and I think there may be an opportunity for Devonte Freeman here.  So I'm considering going heavy on Ravens...but within this tier also considering eagles, raiders, falcons and pats (lol).  I keep thinking the Falcons might open a can on Miami....
Click to expand...


I just like the BAL/CIN game as a contrarian choice to the other stacks that will be more popular. In addition to the core Lamar/Hollywood/Andrews, Freeman and Bateman are also in play. Then bring it back with Chase, Higgins, or another Bengal. My take is the Ravens are going to smash and it could be a shootout. 

 
KarmaPolice said:
One thing that annoyed me looking at the ownership was Miles Sanders was RB5.   Thought that might a lower owned option.  
Click to expand...
Dang, thought he would be my sneaky high risk/high reward guy.

My under the radar(hopefully) stack is Ryan, Patterson and Ridley.

 
I keep drifting back to K.Murray.  Seems to be a theme almost every week.   His ownership ramped up, but pieces around him are cheap and lower owned.  

The top 3 leverage RBs on DK tonight were Henderson, Fournette, and D.Will.   3 of the 4 I had on my lists anyway, so I build a LU around that too. 

K.Murray - Henderson/Fournette - J.Chase/D.Parker/N.Collins/Green - Pitts - Az

My thinking on this one was N.Collins is the cheap run back dart, and it's also leverage off of guys like R. Bateman who I have seen in double digit ownership projections.  I still have an eye on the Atl/Mia game b/c of high pace and high passing %, hence the Parker/Pitts correlation.   Chase is one of my favorite WRs, and along with Fournette, it's leverage off of Godwin at a similar price range.    I like it, but probably not great having 0 players from the KC/Tenn game.  

 
Good luck all!  Just got done redoing a bunch of LUs.   Waller 100% for my FD and Yahoo LUs, and Parker in about 80% of my dk LUs b/c I did a 20 max 10cent gpp and did all Atl/Mia stacks.  

 
TwinTurbo said:
My best week of the season in DK. Finally scored over 200.

Brady, Carter, Bolden, Ruggs, AJ.Brown, J.Chase, Pitts, Evans, Cards
Click to expand...
Nice!   Same here had one of my 4 get to 210.36, and another 197.    About +200 on $20 entered.   Both my Stafford Lus.   

Stafford - Hubbard/Swift - Kupp/Godwin/Chase/V.Jefferson - RS-J - Az

It was a NE stack that took down the bigger gpp I was in.    Pats and a 2TE LU! 

 
KarmaPolice said:
Nice!   Same here had one of my 4 get to 210.36, and another 197.    About +200 on $20 entered.   Both my Stafford Lus.   

Stafford - Hubbard/Swift - Kupp/Godwin/Chase/V.Jefferson - RS-J - Az

It was a NE stack that took down the bigger gpp I was in.    Pats and a 2TE LU! 
Click to expand...
That's awesome! Kupp was a lock of all locks this week against the Lions. 

 
100 in 87 out

Williams and Henderson both killed my best lineups.  I should have pivoted off Williams to Harris, but did not.  I have had far worse weeks, but still disappointed to have not done better this week.  160 FanDual points was my best effort.

 
oof!  I got crushed this week.  need to reboot my refinement process.  somebody else create the week 8 thread.  it was bad juju for me to create it apparently :kicksrock:

 
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