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Week 12 DFS


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3 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Doing a handful of DK LUs today.   A bit brutal because of the WRs.   My first reaction was that this might be a good 2TE slate, as I like the TEs more than the WRs sadly.   

Yes.  I am on two TE builds also.  At one time, I thought it might help be unique.  But, I have seen several experts talking that strategy up, which might up ownership more than first expected. 

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27 minutes ago, FatNate said:

Yes.  I am on two TE builds also.  At one time, I thought it might help be unique.  But, I have seen several experts talking that strategy up, which might up ownership more than first expected. 

I listened to a pod after I posted and they were talking up 2TEs too.   Oh well.   

Good luck!!! 

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Most every hit yesterday.

Mon/Thur full lineup slate had decent overlay.  Ran out 3 lineups which 2x, 3x, and 4x back.

Found more overlay in the early single game slate and had Reynolds for a 2x.

Whiffed on the Dal/LV single game slate but only had $1 in since there wasn't any overlay.

The last single game slate had overlay so 4 of 5 lineups 2x.

The day slate also had massive overlay with one contest only 50% full.  A pretty meh lineup 2x in 3 contests.

 

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DK - 3 lineups in the Milly Maker this week (probably not a good idea since I don't feel strongly about any of these lineups, but whatever)... T. Brady (2), D. Jones (1)... cheap Ds for me:  Texans(2), Jags(1)... M. Saders, B. Cooks, E. Moore, P. Freiermuth all in 2 lineups.... Deebo in all 3 lineups.

FD - 120 lineups in the $0.05 contest, mostly because this makes me laugh... 50/50 split between T. Brady / Jimmy G with a WR or TE stack and the rest of the players setup at their projected ownership percentage.

 

Good luck everyone.

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I'm going to start thinking more from a game theory POV in the future - it probably won't work either - but it's at least something different :lol: 

Brady projected for a high ownership percentage heading into this week - game theory would suggest getting maximum leverage on that high ownership by playing L. Fournette.... would have worked well this week (obviously).

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I'm trying to build rosters that can (theoretically) win tournaments and I'm not trying to min-cash in these things, but these 0fer weeks are really annoying, lol.

0fer on DK.

FD 6 in and 11 out.

 

Edited by Steeler
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On 11/28/2021 at 5:37 PM, SeniorVBDStudent said:

I'm going to need someone to explain to me how to model L Fournette smashing today. 

If you look at the first 11 weeks of the season, its entirely outside the realm of potential outcomes.

I'm irritated, lol.

 

 

The optimizer on RG dropped him into several of my lineups this week.  BUT, in my infinite wisdom, I choose to ignore those options and play other guys!  100 in and 30 out.  Missed on everything this week!

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On 11/28/2021 at 5:37 PM, SeniorVBDStudent said:

I'm going to need someone to explain to me how to model L Fournette smashing today. 

If you look at the first 11 weeks of the season, its entirely outside the realm of potential outcomes.

I'm irritated, lol.

 

 

That's the model for gpp. Outside the realm of likely outcomes but still possible. And if he hits, you pass 95% of the field. 

I also had Fournette in zero lineups. 

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On 11/28/2021 at 4:23 PM, Steeler said:

I'm going to start thinking more from a game theory POV in the future - it probably won't work either - but it's at least something different :lol: 

Brady projected for a high ownership percentage heading into this week - game theory would suggest getting maximum leverage on that high ownership by playing L. Fournette.... would have worked well this week (obviously).

Yes it worked well in hindsight. Also it was clear that the Indy pass D came to play. Conversely, the Bucs run D came to play. Fournette apparently gave an inspirational halftime speech as well after they were down. Sometimes players just have that special game where it all comes together in the end. 

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