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A Strange Predicament


SquashBug

Question

As difficult as it may seem I am in the unusual position of having several good RB's in my lineup but now the choice is on which one will garner the most points for me--and in order to make the playoffs I will need to win the next 2 games and outscore another team's total points in the process.  So here goes--I have 3 slots to fill (2 RB and 1 Flex) in a half-point PPR league:

1) A. Kamara (NO) at NYJ:  Normally I would play Kamara automatically but he has missed the last 4 games and is currently listed as Questionable.  That being said, if he does play will he be relegated to a 50/50 status to Mark Ingram?  I know it's hard to figure out a coach's game plan in advance but if there are any Saints fans out there then perhaps they might know something I don't.  

2) N. Harris (Pitt) at Minn: Although he didn't do too badly last week from what I am hearing is the Steelers have adjusted their playbook and are using Dionte Johnson more--at Harris' expense.  For example, the week before last Harris got me 5 points and some change--and I need more than that.  Yahoo says his value is based on the number of carries he gets--and that's my concern.

3) J. Jacobs (LVR) at Kansas City: With Kenyon Drake's recent ankle injury I would think Jacobs is a definite start.  However, he goes against Kansas City who might take an early lead which could nullify the run to some extent.  Personally, I think he's still going to get some points because he might now see more 3rd down looks out of the backfield than usual.

4) A. Mattison (Min) vs. Pitt: This might also be a safe pick if Minnesota's lead RB (D. Cook) misses another game due to injury.  That said, if D. Cook plays then I think it's safe to bench Mattison.  But if he doesn't suit up then I think Mattison is a good play.  Any thoughts on this?

5) C. Hubbard (Car) vs. Atlanta: As soon as I heard about C. McCaffrey's injury I rushed to pick up Hubbard.  Quite often, however, when a lead RB goes down the situation is usually turned into a RBBC--and that doesn't help.  So if anybody knows the situation in Carolina then I am all ears.  

Again, I am currently in 5th place with 1 point separating me and the 4th place team.  My schedule is much more difficult than his but if I can win the next 2 games AND outscore my main rival then I make the playoffs.  So every point counts.  Personally, I think J. Jacobs and A. Mattison (provided D. Cook doesn't suit up) are my best options for RB but the problem arises if Kamara plays but shares an equal distribution with M. Ingram.  That's no bueno.  Obviously, if Kamara misses this game then my choice boils down to either N. Harris or C. Hubbard.  Anybody with any ideas?  Thanks.

   

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Have you considered that the Jets, fantasy-wise, are historically bad against the run? Check out their fantasy points against. That might lead you to a different conclusion than the one you've made, though I see you're leaning Kamara. Dude, the Jets give up rushing yards like a '95 Sentra leaks oil. They just get gashed and gush up the yards. Check out how bad they've been. I think Gally breaks it down really well, just not sure that the rushing yardage against has been considered. 

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You have a lot of unknowns that still need to be figured out as the week goes along.  Here are my thoughts:

  1.  Harris - He is a must start.  Vikes aren't great against the run and you know he will get touches.  He is in the lineup for sure.
  2.  Jacobs - He is another safe start.  He will get some passing game work and the main ball carrier.  He is in for sure
  3.   Mattison - If Cook is out I go Mattison.  Kamara will likely be on a pitch count his first game back so I am hesitant to start him even though it is the Jets.  If Cook is active then I probably delay the choice and then decide between Kamara/Hubbard
  4. Hubbard - I lean Hubbard slightly over Kamara because they are going against Atlanta.  It's a great matchup and there are less questions with Hubbard than Kamara.
  5. Kamara - I hope he is active and I see him for a week and hope to play him next week after a solid touch share.  There is just too much risk for me to put him in with your other choices available.  
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11 hours ago, rockaction said:

Have you considered that the Jets, fantasy-wise, are historically bad against the run? Check out their fantasy points against. That might lead you to a different conclusion than the one you've made, though I see you're leaning Kamara. Dude, the Jets give up rushing yards like a '95 Sentra leaks oil. They just get gashed and gush up the yards. Check out how bad they've been. I think Gally breaks it down really well, just not sure that the rushing yardage against has been considered. 

I considered it but I also considered that the Saints are likely in control the whole game and won't give Kamara a full workload.  That was until Ingram is likely out.  With him out that pushes Kamara up the list but not sure if he goes above Mattison (if Cook is out), Harris, & Jacobs.

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3 hours ago, Gally said:

I considered it but I also considered that the Saints are likely in control the whole game and won't give Kamara a full workload.  That was until Ingram is likely out.  With him out that pushes Kamara up the list but not sure if he goes above Mattison (if Cook is out), Harris, & Jacobs.

Man, if Kamara's active and Ingram isn't it's full speed ahead for me.  If that's the case I'd go with him, Jacobs and Mattison (if Dalvin's out).  If Dalvin plays, put in Harris.  I've got a feeling Harris may be starting to hit a rook wall.

Edited by Prinefan
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Just found out that M. Ingram tested positive for Covid and may miss game 14.  If so then Kamara would appear to be an extremely good option--provided he plays.  Hopefully, I will know more before Thursday because that is when I will have to decide whether to play Mattison or not.

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I agree.  After a lengthy injury my concern is the pitch count with Kamara--even with Ingram now possibly out.  So I think your advice is sound: play Harris & Jacobs and wait to see whether to D. Cook will suit up or not.  If he plays then it's safe to bench Mattision in favor of either Hubbard or Kamara.  I'm leaning to Kamara in that choice depending on whether Ingram sits.  If the off-chance Ingram is cleared to play I may go with Hubbard. 

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I took Gally's advice and played N. Harris against Minnesota.  I honestly wasn't expecting much but for some reason Pittsburgh decided to stay with the run even though they were down 29-0 at one point.  So I'm thankful for the good advice.  I also sat Mattison who ended up with 2.7 points on my bench.  So now I have 2 slots to fill and I think I will go with Kamara and Jacobs with Hubbard on standby in case anything develops that might endanger the other two.  Thanks guys for the advice!!!

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