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Report: Omicron is much more contagious - Discussion on severity (1 Viewer)

From the article:

But Dr Clive Dix, former Chair of the UK Vaccine Taskforce, said it was important not to overinterpret the data.

"The conclusions made are based on making assumptions about Omicron where we still don't have sufficient data," Dr Dix said. "For example, we have no data on the cellular immune response which is now probably driving effectiveness of vaccines."

"This is a crucial missing assumption in the modelling."

Some of the conclusions are different to the data emerging from South Africa, where vaccines are holding up well against severe disease and death at present, he said.

"There is a huge amount of uncertainty in these modelled estimates and we can only be confident about the impact of boosters against Omicron when we have another month of real-world data on hospitalisation ICU numbers and deaths," he said.

An earlier study by Britain's SIREN looking at reinfection risk in health workers, which was carried out before Omicron emerged, found that a first coronavirus infection offered 85% protection from a second for the following six months.

The data analysed by Imperial College was based on 333,000 cases, including 122,062 of Delta and 1,846 which were confirmed as the Omicron coronavirus variant through genome sequencing.

Imperial College's Professor Azra Ghani, who co-led the study, described it as "essential for modelling the likely future trajectory of the Omicron wave and the potential impact of vaccination and other public health interventions."

 
My intention is not to spread fear. As I wrote I would much prefer it if Omicron turns out to be milder. Sincerely hope that’s the case. 

 
timschochet said:
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-five-times-more-likely-reinfect-than-delta-study-says-2021-12-17/
 

If this is all true (and believe me I’m hoping it isn’t) we may need to consider shutting down again. This is bad. 
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This does not jibe with the news coming out of South Africa.  In their cases 1.7% of positives are being hospitalized versus 19% previously.  

It has been in SA the longest, so I've been placing more weight on what's happening there than other places.

 
I edited the title. But I really don’t see much of a difference between “no evidence that it’s mild” and just as deadly. Seems like exactly the same to me. 
However I will remain hopeful that you guys are correct. 

 
supermike80 said:
Shutdowns have proven to be ineffective.  So no
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I think it’s more accurate to say lockdowns the way we have done them in the US haven’t been effective.  But I’m not proposing we do China level lockdowns.  Ideally this would convince the unvaccinated to get vaccinated but I’m not holding my breathe.

 
How can you say there is no evidence it is mild? You may disagree with the evidence, but there is evidence. 

First person to alert us was saying it is mild.

Hospitalizations are at a lower rate so far. 

There is only one confirmed death that we know of(I think). 

There is some evidence it replicates slower in alveoli tissue. (Although same study said it replicates faster in other tissues I believe) 

 
It’s a data point just like the SA information is a data point in the other direction. It’s still too early to know one way or another. Right now we’re getting early indications of how this might play out and it’s conflicting.

One thing that’s crystal clear is that it spreads like a wildfire and cases are going to explode. What we don’t know when is what that will mean. It ranges from March 2020 to widespread natural immunity with minor illness. We do know that hospitals are already full from Delta cases and even a dramatic decrease in hospitalization rate with Omicron will be problematic because of the sheer number of cases.

Talks of ‘shutting down’ are premature. It does have a ‘March 2020’ feeling to it right now but we know a ton more about this virus than we did then. Reconsider your plans but cancel everything indiscriminately. I plan on going to a holiday party this weekend, flying in February and hosting my parents in February/March. I see no reason to cancel anything but that might change. There is risk and it’s currently an acceptable risk to me. But everyone is different.

What we should be doing is planning. Schools and workplaces should be making contingency plans for when the poop hits the fan. Otherwise we’re just going to be on the all-or-nothing approach that just further polarizes everyone. We’re going to hit the end of winter break and there will be wildly different approaches to school reopening. We have to do better and we’ve had plenty of time to figure it out.

 
Biff84 said:
It’s a data point just like the SA information is a data point in the other direction. It’s still too early to know one way or another. Right now we’re getting early indications of how this might play out and it’s conflicting.

One thing that’s crystal clear is that it spreads like a wildfire and cases are going to explode. What we don’t know when is what that will mean. It ranges from March 2020 to widespread natural immunity with minor illness. We do know that hospitals are already full from Delta cases and even a dramatic decrease in hospitalization rate with Omicron will be problematic because of the sheer number of cases.

Talks of ‘shutting down’ are premature. It does have a ‘March 2020’ feeling to it right now but we know a ton more about this virus than we did then. Reconsider your plans but cancel everything indiscriminately. I plan on going to a holiday party this weekend, flying in February and hosting my parents in February/March. I see no reason to cancel anything but that might change. There is risk and it’s currently an acceptable risk to me. But everyone is different.

What we should be doing is planning. Schools and workplaces should be making contingency plans for when the poop hits the fan. Otherwise we’re just going to be on the all-or-nothing approach that just further polarizes everyone. We’re going to hit the end of winter break and there will be wildly different approaches to school reopening. We have to do better and we’ve had plenty of time to figure it out.
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I think this is reasonable. 
 

 
The key to the severity won’t be deaths, it will be hospitalizations. If Omicron produces as many hopitalizations as Delta, or even more, then it’s not mild and we’re in trouble. If it doesn’t, then maybe it IS mild and not such a big deal. I can’t argue this one way or the other because I’m certainly no doctor. But in a day and age when everybody doubts news sources, Reuters is still one that most people trust. 

 
Making a thread like this is just as bad as some of the threads created recently by the anti-vax side. Using sensationalist titles and inconclusive studies is harmful to defeating this pandemic. It just makes the opposite side dig in their feet. This is interesting information, but it really should have been posted in the covid thread in the FFA. No need to make a thread in the PSF with a misleading, click bait title.

 
John123 said:
There has been ONE death from Omicron, and I would say even that is suspect, and it's been out a couple months now with everything open.  There is no way this thing is as severe as previous versions of the virus.  Stop the fear mongering.
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:goodposting:

FAKE NEWS. 

It's a shame people just want to spread disinformation.  

 
tymarsas said:
Making a thread like this is just as bad as some of the threads created recently by the anti-vax side. Using sensationalist titles and inconclusive studies is harmful to defeating this pandemic. It just makes the opposite side dig in their feet. This is interesting information, but it really should have been posted in the covid thread in the FFA. No need to make a thread in the PSF with a misleading, click bait title.
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In fairness to Tim, he probably would have just posted this in the Gov't response to COVID thread were it open.

 
Covid: Dutch go into Christmas lockdown over Omicron wave

In the USA, I foresee more mask wearing, work from home, but no lockdowns like in parts of Europe. Especially in Florida and other red states. Rules for hospital visitations just became more strict at some hospitals in South Florida. Publix and other private companies may restart mask requirements. Vaccine cards are not used in indoor restaurants, like in California. 

>>Non-essential shops, bars, gyms hairdressers and other public venues will be closed until at least mid-January. Two guests per household will be allowed - four over the holidays.

Prime Minister Mark Rutte said the restrictions were "unavoidable".

Countries across Europe have been tightening restrictions as the heavily mutated variant spreads.

Under the new rules, people are being urged to stay at home as much as possible. Strict limits will be placed on the number of people who can meet - a maximum of two guests over the age of 13 will be allowed in people's homes, and four on 24-26 December and on New Year's Eve.

All schools will be closed until at least 9 January, while other lockdown measures will remain in place until at least 14 January.

The BBC's Anna Holligan in The Hague said the announcement was being met with disbelief and dismay.

For weeks, curfews have been placed on hospitality and cultural venues in the Netherlands an effort to limit the spread of Omicron.

The Dutch National Institute for Public Health has reported more than 2.9m coronavirus cases since the pandemic began, and over 20,000 deaths.

It says the Omicron variant currently still accounts for a minority of coronavirus cases in the Netherlands but is spreading rapidly.

Officials say it is expected to become the dominant variant by the New Year.

Mr Rutte said a failure to act now would likely lead to "an unmanageable situation in hospitals".

At the news conference on Saturday, officials urged people to get vaccinated.<<

 
SoBeDad said:
Covid: Dutch go into Christmas lockdown over Omicron wave

In the USA, I foresee more mask wearing, work from home, but no lockdowns like in parts of Europe. Especially in Florida and other red states. Rules for hospital visitations just became more strict at some hospitals in South Florida. Publix and other private companies may restart mask requirements. Vaccine cards are not used in indoor restaurants, like in California. 
Click to expand...


My work was supposed to re-open the office in January after being closed since March 2020.  They sent an email out on Friday that they are pushing that back to April because of Omicron.  My guess is that "office" work will be a thing of the past for many professions.  My quality of life has been so much better working from home, I never want to go to the office again.

 
tonydead said:
Much milder variant. We should spread this thing around so it takes over delta.  
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That's what's happening. Hopefully covid will be just endemic like the flu. I think we're almost there. Vaccines have gotten us to this stage more quickly, at least regarding surges in deaths and hospitalizations.  Florida's Jul-Sep 2021 large Delta surge is a warning to unvaccinated people with health conditions such as obesity.

 
tonydead said:
Much milder variant. We should spread this thing around so it takes over delta.  
Click to expand...
I hope this is true but the study I posted said there is no evidence of it. Unless we get conclusive evidence that your statement is correct, I think what you’re suggesting is extremely dangerous. (And even if you ARE correct, I still don’t know if it makes sense to “spread it around”. I think we should rely on public health experts to tell us if that is the correct solution.) 

 
Ghost Rider said:
A shutdown like in the spring of 2020 will not and cannot happen again. The public at large, for many different reasons, will not stand for it.
Click to expand...
Again it all depends on how many people go into the hospitals. As long as those numbers stay steady or decline, we can go on as normal. If the beds fill up, we have to take drastic action. And the politics of it won’t matter. 

 
I lost nearly half of my family’s earnings in 2020 due to no rents. If there is a shutdown again for any long period, I might be forced to go out of business. So some of you need to stop acting like this is news that I or anybody else might be happy about. Hell if Donald Trump could guarantee me a permanent end to Covid I’d sign on for 4 more years of him right now, happily, and all other issues be damned. 

 
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timschochet said:
Again it all depends on how many people go into the hospitals. As long as those numbers stay steady or decline, we can go on as normal. If the beds fill up, we have to take drastic action. And the politics of it won’t matter. 
Click to expand...


My wife works in an ER here in Philadelphia.  She said every patient she had has covid.     

 
SoBeDad said:
Covid: Dutch go into Christmas lockdown over Omicron wave

In the USA, I foresee more mask wearing, work from home, but no lockdowns like in parts of Europe. Especially in Florida and other red states. Rules for hospital visitations just became more strict at some hospitals in South Florida. Publix and other private companies may restart mask requirements. Vaccine cards are not used in indoor restaurants, like in California. 

>>Non-essential shops, bars, gyms hairdressers and other public venues will be closed until at least mid-January. Two guests per household will be allowed - four over the holidays.

Prime Minister Mark Rutte said the restrictions were "unavoidable".

Countries across Europe have been tightening restrictions as the heavily mutated variant spreads.

Under the new rules, people are being urged to stay at home as much as possible. Strict limits will be placed on the number of people who can meet - a maximum of two guests over the age of 13 will be allowed in people's homes, and four on 24-26 December and on New Year's Eve.

All schools will be closed until at least 9 January, while other lockdown measures will remain in place until at least 14 January.

The BBC's Anna Holligan in The Hague said the announcement was being met with disbelief and dismay.

For weeks, curfews have been placed on hospitality and cultural venues in the Netherlands an effort to limit the spread of Omicron.

The Dutch National Institute for Public Health has reported more than 2.9m coronavirus cases since the pandemic began, and over 20,000 deaths.

It says the Omicron variant currently still accounts for a minority of coronavirus cases in the Netherlands but is spreading rapidly.

Officials say it is expected to become the dominant variant by the New Year.

Mr Rutte said a failure to act now would likely lead to "an unmanageable situation in hospitals".

At the news conference on Saturday, officials urged people to get vaccinated.<<
Click to expand...
The problem we have here is that there’s nuance. Blue states will shut down and red states will laugh at the crazy libs and encourage bad behavior. Neither is right. We should be looking at reasonable restrictions that can be followed. I’ve long been an advocate for a tiered system of recommendation like they have air pollution or terrorism.

‘The current spread risk is red. Community spread is high and the dominant variant is highly transmissible. Masking is advised for everyone regardless of vaccination status. Please consider the high risk of transmission when planning non-essential activities.’

If you having something like that businesses like groceries stores can just saying that they are following CDC recommendations and post the current risk level rather than constantly updating their signage. I don’t think strict enforcement should be out in place - retailers don’t want to do it and public health resources shouldn’t be wasted on it. But just to have clear messaging would make a huge difference.

 
Biff84 said:
The problem we have here is that there’s nuance. Blue states will shut down and red states will laugh at the crazy libs and encourage bad behavior. Neither is right. We should be looking at reasonable restrictions that can be followed. I’ve long been an advocate for a tiered system of recommendation like they have air pollution or terrorism.

‘The current spread risk is red. Community spread is high and the dominant variant is highly transmissible. Masking is advised for everyone regardless of vaccination status. Please consider the high risk of transmission when planning non-essential activities.’

If you having something like that businesses like groceries stores can just saying that they are following CDC recommendations and post the current risk level rather than constantly updating their signage. I don’t think strict enforcement should be out in place - retailers don’t want to do it and public health resources shouldn’t be wasted on it. But just to have clear messaging would make a huge difference.
Click to expand...
I mostly agree that, if things go bad it will start out this way. 
 

But if the hospitals in red states fill up, there will be shutdowns. Eventually. 

 
timschochet said:
Again it all depends on how many people go into the hospitals. As long as those numbers stay steady or decline, we can go on as normal. If the beds fill up, we have to take drastic action. And the politics of it won’t matter. 
Click to expand...
Drastic action, yes, but I am just saying, the public at large will not get behind another shutdown similar to what we saw in 2020.  I don't know what the answer is, but that is one that will not work. 

 
timschochet said:
Again it all depends on how many people go into the hospitals. As long as those numbers stay steady or decline, we can go on as normal. If the beds fill up, we have to take drastic action. And the politics of it won’t matter. 
Click to expand...
I think Florida had the nation's largest delta surge in Jul-Sep 2021. Higher case rate, hospitalization rate, higher  death rate than in Florida's earlier surges and higher than any of California's state-wide surges. About equal to the LA county Dec 2020 - Feb 2021 surge. At its peak in Florida, 200 people were dying daily and hospitals had their highest covid census ever, mostly unvaxxed people with diabetes, COPD, etc, many in their 40s and 50s.

Florida survived and cases dropped dramatically with no real shutdown. Mask requirements returned in many stores, and people became more cautious. Nurses and doctors got burned out again and some medical procedures were post-poned. In-person schooling remained with mask mandates in blue counties. BTW, the superintendent of the Miami-Dade school system is leaving to fix the LA school system.  He successfully pushed back against DeSantis and stuck with school mask mandates.

 
Ghost Rider said:
Drastic action, yes, but I am just saying, the public at large will not get behind another shutdown similar to what we saw in 2020.  I don't know what the answer is, but that is one that will not work. 
Click to expand...
I agree with you the public won’t like it. 
 

 But hey maybe, hopefully this is all premature. I have never in my life wanted @tonydead to be right more than I do at this moment. Lol

 
timschochet said:
I hope this is true but the study I posted said there is no evidence of it. Unless we get conclusive evidence that your statement is correct, I think what you’re suggesting is extremely dangerous. (And even if you ARE correct, I still don’t know if it makes sense to “spread it around”. I think we should rely on public health experts to tell us if that is the correct solution.) 
Click to expand...
Was your study based on lab tests or actual results? 

Eta: I have reached my article limit not being lazy. 

 
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