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Report: Omicron is much more contagious - Discussion on severity (1 Viewer)

I think Florida had the nation's largest delta surge in Jul-Sep 2021. Higher case rate, hospitalization rate, higher  death rate than in Florida's earlier surges and higher than any of California's state-wide surges. About equal to the LA county Dec 2020 - Feb 2021 surge. At its peak in Florida, 200 people were dying daily and hospitals had their highest covid census ever, mostly unvaxxed people with diabetes, COPD, etc, many in their 40s and 50s.

Florida survived and cases dropped dramatically with no real shutdown. Mask requirements returned in many stores, and people became more cautious. Nurses and doctors got burned out again and some medical procedures were post-poned. In-person schooling remained with mask mandates in blue counties. BTW, the superintendent of the Miami-Dade school system is leaving to fix the LA school system.  He successfully pushed back against DeSantis and stuck with school mask mandates.
You’re right about all of this. 

But- let’s suppose the absolute worst being reported is correct: that Omicron is 70 times more contagious and no more mild than Delta. If that is the case then the hospitals will fill up like nothing we saw in 2020- and if that happens then even a guy like DeSantis will be forced to go along with a shutdown. 

 
How many of them are hospitalized? How full are the beds? Those are the key numbers. If they’re low, then great. If they’re not…


She said that she hasn't seen an increase in covid hospitalizations.  I asked her if she saw an increase in hospitalizations from the delta variant.  She said the delta variant did not cause an increase in hospitalizations based on what she saw.    

 
The problem we have here is that there’s nuance. Blue states will shut down and red states will laugh at the crazy libs and encourage bad behavior. Neither is right. We should be looking at reasonable restrictions that can be followed. I’ve long been an advocate for a tiered system of recommendation like they have air pollution or terrorism.

‘The current spread risk is red. Community spread is high and the dominant variant is highly transmissible. Masking is advised for everyone regardless of vaccination status. Please consider the high risk of transmission when planning non-essential activities.’

If you having something like that businesses like groceries stores can just saying that they are following CDC recommendations and post the current risk level rather than constantly updating their signage. I don’t think strict enforcement should be out in place - retailers don’t want to do it and public health resources shouldn’t be wasted on it. But just to have clear messaging would make a huge difference.


When covid first started I believe they had a hospital capacity threshold they were using.  

 
Was your study based on lab tests or actual results? 

Eta: I have reached my article limit not being lazy. 
It’s not my study. 
 

And I don’t know. I can’t tell. In the article there are other doctors who argue it’s too soon to draw conclusions. I hope that’s true. (But of course, that means it’s also too soon to conclude that Omicron is more mild, which many seem to be doing.) 

 
The Biden Variant is weak.  That's why they call it the Biden Variant. 

Its almost like people need it to be bad.  

 
She said that she hasn't seen an increase in covid hospitalizations.  I asked her if she saw an increase in hospitalizations from the delta variant.  She said the delta variant did not cause an increase in hospitalizations based on what she saw.    
That’s very good news. Hopefully that’s the news everywhere. 

 
You’re right about all of this. 

But- let’s suppose the absolute worst being reported is correct: that Omicron is 70 times more contagious and no more mild than Delta. If that is the case then the hospitals will fill up like nothing we saw in 2020- and if that happens then even a guy like DeSantis will be forced to go along with a shutdown. 
I thought the article said 5.4 times more infectious than delta? 70 times refers to the replication rate in tissue, I think from another study. DeSantis (and many experts) though covid was over before delta came, so we need to watch the surges carefully, and listen to the medical experts.

 
I thought the article said 5.4 times more infectious than delta? 70 times refers to the replication rate in tissue, I think from another study. DeSantis (and many experts) though covid was over before delta came, so we need to watch the surges carefully, and listen to the medical experts.
Thank you. I read that wrong. 

 
How can you say there is no evidence it is mild? You may disagree with the evidence, but there is evidence. 

First person to alert us was saying it is mild.

Hospitalizations are at a lower rate so far. 

There is only one confirmed death that we know of(I think). 

There is some evidence it replicates slower in alveoli tissue. (Although same study said it replicates faster in other tissues I believe) 
:goodposting:

Thank you for posting this and going against selling the fear. 

 
It makes sense to get a booster based on preliminary data, although my daughter says she gonna wait for the updated Pfizer or moderna booster. It also makes sense to reduce the size of family gatherings, but that will not happen. Air travel at many airports during Thanksgiving exceeded that in 2019, prepandemic.

 
I lost nearly half of my family’s earnings in 2020 due to no rents. If there is a shutdown again for any long period, I might be forced to go out of business. So some of you need to stop acting like this is news that I or anybody else might be happy about. Hell if Donald Trump could guarantee me a permanent end to Covid I’d sign on for 4 more years of him right now, happily, and all other issues be damned. 
Great.  I'll call my buddy Satan and get the paperwork together.   It's a really good deal.

 
My work was supposed to re-open the office in January after being closed since March 2020.  They sent an email out on Friday that they are pushing that back to April because of Omicron.  My guess is that "office" work will be a thing of the past for many professions.  My quality of life has been so much better working from home, I never want to go to the office again.
My new job is hybrid.  I could do it going I to the office once a month and that is only for a specific meeting which can be done remotely just a but clunky. I'm with you. Going back full time is a waste.

 
How many of them are hospitalized? How full are the beds? Those are the key numbers. If they’re low, then great. If they’re not…
Hospitals are full many places already. In HI at least, it’s mostly non-Covid pt.

So we really can’t afford an uptick in hospitalizations at all.

 
Dumb question- when it's said it's not as deadly, does that mean biologically not as deadly, or so far it's not statistically as deadly (maybe Vacc are working and other factors?) 

 
Dumb question- when it's said it's not as deadly, does that mean biologically not as deadly, or so far it's not statistically as deadly (maybe Vacc are working and other factors?) 
They mean it's biologically not as deadly for any particular individual.  Like if you have a 1% chance of dying from delta, maybe you have something like a  0.75% chance of dying from omicron.  (Numbers totally made up just to illustrate the point -- not for citation!)  

If that was the end of the story, this would be great.  The problem is that omicron seems to be way, way more contagious.  So each individual who gets infected is less likely to end up in the hospital or on a ventilator compared to delta, but there are going to be many more infections, so the net result is almost certainly going to be a big spike in hospital capacity usage.  I know you probably know this already -- just including the extra context for other people skimming the thread.

 
Much better to pivot to abusing the sad/crying emoji instead
Please explain how it’s abusing, seemed like the correct reaction to someone insulting a poster personally? 
 

We know this is just you continuing to try to cancel the minority here but please tell us what would be better, responding with more personal insults as mods don’t want? Mashing the report button like you and others in the majority do like mods don’t want? Please let us know when it’s allowed, although we all know your agenda. 

 
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Please explain how it’s abusing, seemed like the correct reaction to someone insulting a poster personally? 
 

We know this is just you continuing to try to cancel the majority here but please tell us what would be better, responding with more personal insults as mods don’t want? Mashing the report button like you and others in the majority do like mods don’t want? Please let us know when it’s allowed, although we all know your agenda. 
I’m not interested in canceling or reporting anyone.  I’m interested in having real discussion with people on issues and topics.  When we’ve had meaningful discussion — even if we disagree radically — I’ve enjoyed those discussions and appreciated your perspective.  That is true of my experience with many on this board.

But often times, people resort to snark and hitting the laugh emoji.  It’s just a shallow form of trolling.   And now folks have clearly begun to pivot to using a different emoji for the same purpose.  Will they admit it?  Oh, of course not. Plausible deniability.
 

 
You're both simpatico in my book and I don't think either of you mash the report button because you're both adults and cool. 

 
I’m not interested in canceling or reporting anyone.  I’m interested in having real discussion with people on issues and topics.  When we’ve had meaningful discussion — even if we disagree radically — I’ve enjoyed those discussions and appreciated your perspective.  That is true of my experience with many on this board.

But often times, people resort to snark and hitting the laugh emoji.  It’s just a shallow form of trolling.   And now folks have clearly begun to pivot to using a different emoji for the same purpose.  Will they admit it?  Oh, of course not. Plausible deniability.
 
Please respond specifically to the post above. How was that not completely appropriate? Happy to remove it if posts like that from your side are ok?
 

 This schtick that somehow the non liberal minority is cyber bullying with smily faces, not the 90% liberal forum that dog piles on any non liberal poster is next level. 
 

Also the sense of entitlement that after you dog pile on every non lib they owe each of you an essay is rich. Google “echo chamber”. 

 
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Please respond specifically to the post above. How was that not completely appropriate? Happy to remove it if posts like that from your side are ok?
 

 This schtick that somehow the non liberal minority is cyber bullying with smily faces, not the 90% liberal forum that dog piles on any non liberal poster is next level. 
 

Also the sense of entitlement that after you dog pile on every non lib they owe each of you an essay is rich. Google “echo chamber”. 
I already responded.  Zero clue what is an appropriate response to a post that seemed uncool.  Matching snark with snark doesn’t seem optimal.  If it makes someone sad, then use the sad emoji.  🤷‍♂️

To your second point, plenty of people used the laughing emoji as a poor form of discourse.  Did it start out that way?  Not really.  It was a small handful of folks, and then it spread.  It became commonplace, certainly not just “non-Libs.”  
 

No idea what the 3rd paragraph means.  It feels like a persecution complex, but I also don’t know what it’s like to be “dog piled.”  What I’ve observed is different, but everyone has their own experience, and I can’t pretend to know what others are feeling or experiencing.

 
Unrelated to the last few posts:  why was this thread a separate topic?  It was just a simple article on Covid — why not just put it in the Covid thread in the FFA?   Serious question.

 
Dumb question- when it's said it's not as deadly, does that mean biologically not as deadly, or so far it's not statistically as deadly (maybe Vacc are working and other factors?) 
This post and the following discussion of 30 or so posts from another board will be interesting to you and other here, I think. This exchange encapsulates the gist:

Riemann: Saying “we don’t have enough data yet” is not crying wolf.

 GreenWyvern: All current data tends to show that it’s less severe
Riemann: Data are showing a smaller proportion of cases hospitalized. Nobody is disputing that. The issue is that it’s difficult to control for confounding variables. We don’t yet know if outcomes are looking better because Omicron is much less severe, or because most of the population (especially the most vulnerable) now has some degree of immunity from either vaccination or prior infection. Either would be good news, but the implications are different for different populations with different age profiles or immunity levels, and for individuals within those populations.

The other thing people are concerned about is how much less severe it is. Even if it’s putting a smaller proportion of cases in hospital, it’s so much more infectious that it could still overwhelm hospitals.

 
I already responded.  Zero clue what is an appropriate response to a post that seemed uncool.  Matching snark with snark doesn’t seem optimal.  If it makes someone sad, then use the sad emoji.  🤷‍♂️

To your second point, plenty of people used the laughing emoji as a poor form of discourse.  Did it start out that way?  Not really.  It was a small handful of folks, and then it spread.  It became commonplace, certainly not just “non-Libs.”  
 

No idea what the 3rd paragraph means.  It feels like a persecution complex, but I also don’t know what it’s like to be “dog piled.”  What I’ve observed is different, but everyone has their own experience, and I can’t pretend to know what others are feeling or experiencing.
- Please explain how that was snark? I honestly felt it’s said to get personal. I’ll just ask if you are going to police it please police both sides. 
 

-Agree for most part, although an emoji is completely harmless and a lot of times sharing honest feelings to some of the regular narratives would be worse. 
 

- interesting how when anyone infringes on your victim card it’s a persecution complex? Take a deep breath and a step back, there are only a couple posters here that don’t echo whatever you post and the biggest issue in you alls world here is a smiley face. 
 

For the record you try to take a fair perspective at times and these points are more general to the 90% not just you specifically. 
 

I’ll get back to mostly hanging in the Trump thread with the other 3 non Libs, if you are truly offended that I saw the post as sad let me know and I can definitely remove it for you…it’s really not that important to me just an honest reaction. 

 
- Please explain how that was snark? I honestly felt it’s said to get personal. I’ll just ask if you are going to police it please police both sides. 
 

-Agree for most part, although an emoji is completely harmless and a lot of times sharing honest feelings to some of the regular narratives would be worse. 
 

- interesting how when anyone infringes on your victim card it’s a persecution complex? Take a deep breath and a step back, there are only a couple posters here that don’t echo whatever you post and the biggest issue in you alls world here is a smiley face. 
 

For the record you try to take a fair perspective at times and these points are more general to the 90% not just you specifically. 
 

I’ll get back to mostly hanging in the Trump thread with the other 3 non Libs, if you are truly offended that I saw the post as sad let me know and I can definitely remove it for you…it’s really not that important to me just an honest reaction. 
I’m not saying your emoji related to that post was snark.  As mentioned 1-2 posts ago, I didn’t even see the post in question — it was an observation more generally based on other threads.  So clearly I wasn’t offended, because a) it doesn’t offend me, b) I didn’t even know it existed.

Appreciate the discourse.  As mentioned earlier, I always enjoy when we have discussions.  Even when it gets heated. :)

 
I edited the title. But I really don’t see much of a difference between “no evidence that it’s mild” and just as deadly. Seems like exactly the same to me. 
However I will remain hopeful that you guys are correct. 


If you think  “no evidence that it’s mild” and "just as deadly", "seems like exactly the same", please stop creating threads on this topic. 

 
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If you think  “no evidence that it’s mild” and "just as deadly", "seems like exactly the same", please stop creating threads on this topic. 
No, after i thought about it some more I realized that my critics were right and I posted that here, a little after the quote you just replied to. And of course I changed the title. 

However, you just chose to change it again, obviously because somebody is still complaining about it. I would only point out that the statement “not mild” which you removed appears in the title of the Reuters article I linked. 

 
timschochet said:
No, after i thought about it some more I realized that my critics were right and I posted that here, a little after the quote you just replied to. And of course I changed the title. 

However, you just chose to change it again, obviously because somebody is still complaining about it. I would only point out that the statement “not mild” which you removed appears in the title of the Reuters article I linked. 
As you know, journalists don’t write headlines — editors do.  And they have marching orders to sell their product, so quite often headlines don’t match content.  Like in this case.

I have no idea who continues to complain about this, but their observation isn’t wrong.  The title didn’t match the content.

 

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