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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun ***


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With many projecting Russia to actually invade, I'd like to keep a place for the actual news of the situation, open discussion and avoid the typical Politics Forum arguments.  If you want to talk about Biden vs. Trump, these are not the droids you are looking for.

US Intelligence suggests Russia will invade Ukraine within a week

We have been officially telling all US citizens to leave Ukraine and head home as invasion is possible.

The Russians have enough troops ready to effectively invade.

This may legit go down and make our already chaotic world a little more nutty.

Edited by Jayrod
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To paraphrase the Gladiator: People should know when they're conquered.  But ...it isn't that simple.  Russia might win the battle but lose the war.  Three likely problems for Russia: (1) Ukraine will not just roll over and give up their homeland; (2) even if Russia 'defeats' them, it could result in longer term chaos and cost, and (3) Russia could pay a severe price from international sanctions (though I've read that they've been buffering themselves against some of that).  

I'm aware that eastern Ukraine has a heavily Russian heritage, but it still seems somewhat surreal to think about a major power attacking another nation like this.  I guess our world hasn't moved past that.

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11 hours ago, tri-man 47 said:

I'm aware that eastern Ukraine has a heavily Russian heritage, but it still seems somewhat surreal to think about a major power attacking another nation like this.  I guess our world hasn't moved past that.

This is what is fascinating and concerning me.  Are we really going to see one nation try to completely take over another?

We haven't seen that since Iraq tried to take Kuwait.  Ukraine is a lot bigger and more powerful than Kuwait was and I feel like the world will step in on Russia if they really try it.  Maybe not WW3, but a lot bigger clash than we've seen in my 44 year lifetime.  Maybe the Korean War would be a more apt comparison?

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16 hours ago, AAABatteries said:


You know what the Ukraine is? It's a sitting duck. A road apple. The Ukraine is weak. It's feeble. I think it's time to put the hurt on the Ukraine.

YOU THINK UKRAINE IS WEAK!!!

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24 minutes ago, Dennis Castro said:

Not that it would ever come to this, but does Ukraine happen to have any leftover Soviet nukes or did they have to give them all back to Russia? That could make for a fun wrinkle.

Google “Budapest Memorandum” for your answer.  It’s also why this isn’t as simple (or shouldn’t be as simple) as the US/UK just sitting this out.

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30 minutes ago, Ted Lange as your Bartender said:

Google “Budapest Memorandum” for your answer.  It’s also why this isn’t as simple (or shouldn’t be as simple) as the US/UK just sitting this out.

Well gosh, one could almost surmise that Russia is not to be trusted.

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I am hoping my post doesn't come off as too political, but I love history and what is going on is fascinating/terrifying all at the same time. So please I hope I don't offend anyone.

My take is Putin put on this massive training exercise to just test the waters and see what the response would be., I think he would love to invade, but let's face it, Russia's economy is a mess. Ukraine isn't going to roll over and Russia cannot have a long, drawn-out skirmish. In addition, how are they going to afford to occupy this new satellite? As JD just posted above, the world will crush them with sanctions. 

Enter Biden, he needs a victory right now wherever he can get it. He gets to play the tough guy and respond to this. If Putin withdraws, he can claim he made that happen. The problem is his over-the-top rhetoric is creating an environment where Russia may be goaded into actually doing something, so as to not look weak. The Biden team has created this urgency in the MSM that the attack could come at any minute--any second, when in fact, Russia is now stuck trying to save face on how to get out of this. The US has already said our troops will not be part of this if it goes down. So, what we are left with is Biden acting like that one guy in a bar fight who stands on the sidelines imploring/hyping a fight, when in fact the two combatants want nothing to do with it. Let's remember even the Ukranian leader asked him to please tone it down. 

I think we are at a tipping point in a battle of wills. How much will Putin put his pride in front of common sense and do something just so as to not look weak? On the flip side of the coin, any war with Russia is extremely unpopular here in the US (as evidenced by multiple polls) and will this tough talk come back to haunt us if an invasion happens.

Again, maybe I am way off and next week Russia just goes balls in and blitzkriegs across Ukraine like no tomorrow. I still find the whole situation interesting from a historical type of perspective. 

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35 minutes ago, Courtjester said:

Again, maybe I am way off and next week Russia just goes balls in and blitzkriegs across Ukraine like no tomorrow. I still find the whole situation interesting from a historical type of perspective. 

Unfortunately I think you are wrong.  I agree with the camp that says Putin screwed up, and now cannot climb down.

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So from what I’ve read about this(not much, because I’m doing my level best to avoid all things political), this is because Putin wants Russia to have more influence, because I guess he sees the West as a threat. Personally, I don’t have anything against the Russians(aside from their awful drivers and terrible weather), and I hope that cooler heads prevail, because otherwise a lot of people are going to die.

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47 minutes ago, Courtjester said:

I am hoping my post doesn't come off as too political, but I love history and what is going on is fascinating/terrifying all at the same time. So please I hope I don't offend anyone.

My take is Putin put on this massive training exercise to just test the waters and see what the response would be., I think he would love to invade, but let's face it, Russia's economy is a mess. Ukraine isn't going to roll over and Russia cannot have a long, drawn-out skirmish. In addition, how are they going to afford to occupy this new satellite? As JD just posted above, the world will crush them with sanctions. 

Enter Biden, he needs a victory right now wherever he can get it. He gets to play the tough guy and respond to this. If Putin withdraws, he can claim he made that happen. The problem is his over-the-top rhetoric is creating an environment where Russia may be goaded into actually doing something, so as to not look weak. The Biden team has created this urgency in the MSM that the attack could come at any minute--any second, when in fact, Russia is now stuck trying to save face on how to get out of this. The US has already said our troops will not be part of this if it goes down. So, what we are left with is Biden acting like that one guy in a bar fight who stands on the sidelines imploring/hyping a fight, when in fact the two combatants want nothing to do with it. Let's remember even the Ukranian leader asked him to please tone it down. 

I think we are at a tipping point in a battle of wills. How much will Putin put his pride in front of common sense and do something just so as to not look weak? On the flip side of the coin, any war with Russia is extremely unpopular here in the US (as evidenced by multiple polls) and will this tough talk come back to haunt us if an invasion happens.

Again, maybe I am way off and next week Russia just goes balls in and blitzkriegs across Ukraine like no tomorrow. I still find the whole situation interesting from a historical type of perspective. 

Very interesting analysis.  I think Biden's rhetoric is giving Putin pause, without it I think he'd go in with impunity.  I happen to think Putin's bluffing and will draw down his troops.  Way too much time has gone by and Ukraine and NATO have both had ample time to strategize and respond.

Like the jester noted, what's Russia's endgame here?  They have tons of issues at home and now they're going to extend themselves further by occupying a hostile country?  Doesn't make sense to me.  But with Putin, who really knows. 

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1 hour ago, Kal El said:

So from what I’ve read about this(not much, because I’m doing my level best to avoid all things political), this is because Putin wants Russia to have more influence, because I guess he sees the West as a threat.


In the Cold War/U.S.S.R. era, there were no NATO countries on they’d borders. East Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, and Albania were controlled by brutal force. Today 5 of the 14 countries bordering Russia are NATO allies.

The fundamental security promise of NATO is an attack on any member is considered an attack on all members. Ukraine is nowhere near being accepted (it takes a unanimous vote of 30-0) but it’s a distant possibility.  

Ukraine has been independent for 30+ years and holds democratic elections. The Communists have had no national representation in Ukraine since 2014. For obvious reasons Putin/Russia hate the example their neighbor sets.

I’m trying to better understand what Putin’s end game is - he’s given the UK/US impossible demands which he knows won’t be met (I.e., a halt to NATO’s expansion eastward, a formal veto on Ukraine from ever joining the military alliance, and a rollback of NATO military deployments in the region.)

On a micro level, many Russians feel Russia/Ukraine are inextricably linked. Historically they are one Slav people and have been since the 9th century. But this view of course ignores the wishes of the Ukrainian people, who long ago chose autonomy.

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12 hours ago, Jayrod said:
On 2/11/2022 at 1:30 PM, AAABatteries said:


You know what the Ukraine is? It's a sitting duck. A road apple. The Ukraine is weak. It's feeble. I think it's time to put the hurt on the Ukraine.

YOU THINK UKRAINE IS WEAK!!!

It’s Risk, it's a game of world domination being played by two guys who can barely run their own lives.

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3 hours ago, Courtjester said:

I am hoping my post doesn't come off as too political, but I love history and what is going on is fascinating/terrifying all at the same time. So please I hope I don't offend anyone.

My take is Putin put on this massive training exercise to just test the waters and see what the response would be., I think he would love to invade, but let's face it, Russia's economy is a mess. Ukraine isn't going to roll over and Russia cannot have a long, drawn-out skirmish. In addition, how are they going to afford to occupy this new satellite? As JD just posted above, the world will crush them with sanctions. 

Enter Biden, he needs a victory right now wherever he can get it. He gets to play the tough guy and respond to this. If Putin withdraws, he can claim he made that happen. The problem is his over-the-top rhetoric is creating an environment where Russia may be goaded into actually doing something, so as to not look weak. The Biden team has created this urgency in the MSM that the attack could come at any minute--any second, when in fact, Russia is now stuck trying to save face on how to get out of this. The US has already said our troops will not be part of this if it goes down. So, what we are left with is Biden acting like that one guy in a bar fight who stands on the sidelines imploring/hyping a fight, when in fact the two combatants want nothing to do with it. Let's remember even the Ukranian leader asked him to please tone it down. 

I think we are at a tipping point in a battle of wills. How much will Putin put his pride in front of common sense and do something just so as to not look weak? On the flip side of the coin, any war with Russia is extremely unpopular here in the US (as evidenced by multiple polls) and will this tough talk come back to haunt us if an invasion happens.

Again, maybe I am way off and next week Russia just goes balls in and blitzkriegs across Ukraine like no tomorrow. I still find the whole situation interesting from a historical type of perspective. 

Do you want a coward? He’d get crushed for that too. REALLY crushed. “BIDEN ROLLS OVER FOR PUTIN” etc etc. People don’t even know what they want now. 
 

I voted for Biden, big supporter before the election, been terribly disappointed with him so far. However, I think he is handling this spot on. You can’t just roll over while some psychopath tries to invade a free country. Read a history book. 

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3 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

Kyiv if you’re Ukrainian 🇺🇦 

Kiev if you’re Russian 🇷🇺 

Heard a lady on NPR pronounce it "keev" this week.  I had always said "key-ev".

I also used to say "lie-shester city" until I watched an EPL match and learned it's pronounced "lester city".

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4 hours ago, Kal El said:

So from what I’ve read about this(not much, because I’m doing my level best to avoid all things political), this is because Putin wants Russia to have more influence, because I guess he sees the West as a threat. Personally, I don’t have anything against the Russians(aside from their awful drivers and terrible weather), and I hope that cooler heads prevail, because otherwise a lot of people are going to die.

I think Putin is still in a USSR mindset and expanding Russia's territory has always been a priority, hence Crimea and now this.

The argument I've heard him make about all of their aggressive moves is that they are just protecting Russians that happen to live in these other countries.  I think he believes Ukraine (at least the Eastern portions) belongs as part of Russia. 

I imagine there are at least some Russian speaking Ukrainian citizens who would not mind being part of Russia.  How many though, I don't have a clue.

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5 hours ago, Kal El said:

Personally, I don’t have anything against the Russians

Meet a few more, that'll change. 

 

26 minutes ago, Jayrod said:

Heard a lady on NPR pronounce it "keev" this week.  I had always said "key-ev".

I also used to say "lie-shester city" until I watched an EPL match and learned it's pronounced "lester city".

I heard the Keev for the first time this week too.  Weird.

 

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8 hours ago, Jayrod said:

I think Putin is still in a USSR mindset and expanding Russia's territory has always been a priority, hence Crimea and now this.

The argument I've heard him make about all of their aggressive moves is that they are just protecting Russians that happen to live in these other countries.  I think he believes Ukraine (at least the Eastern portions) belongs as part of Russia. 

I imagine there are at least some Russian speaking Ukrainian citizens who would not mind being part of Russia.  How many though, I don't have a clue.

The interesting thing is they’re nowhere near being a superpower. We get it, 6K nukes - essentially useless to both sides bc MAD (will never be used.) They’ve got 1/7th the military capability we do, - 1/14th the economy. 330M v 144M. By any nonnuclear measurement, Russia is inferior.

Land mass. Crushing the land mass game. Doubt we have plans to pull a Napoleon/Hitler and invade them.

Our actual, ready to deploy technology dwarfs their capabilities. War is horrendous, we would never let it get to that. But if it did - I don’t want it, you don’t, he doesn’t, but if - we would immediately take out their satellites with SM-3 and Arrow 3 missiles. That’s the first 30-120 minutes - and it would have nothing to do with troops, tanks, or ships. Game over.

It wouldn’t matter how many troops, reserves Russia or U.S has in the region. It would be a modern technological war decided by four primary factors:

1. Target acquisition (who has the better target data, detection and tracking abilities)

2. Accuracy at great range (Who would be able to deliver cruise and ballistic missiles to crucial targets first, accurately and from great range)

3. Fire first advantage (Who launches a mass attack first would have a great advantage)

4. Air superiority. Who comes to rule the skies first would stop any and all progress of any ground based assets.

They do not possess the capacity to do the same. In the war that will never be fought, we would dominate target acquisition. It’s the NFL VS a mid-level MAC squad, who ya got?

_______________

Like I said, don’t understand his end game. Not rolling NATIO security back 30 years. The Eastern Block band isn’t getting back together. I guess he is betting no western leader will match his moxie. He might be correct about that. Amazing he’s accomplishing this on hubris and wishful thinking.

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33 minutes ago, Rattle and Hum said:

But they have and operate with the support of China, no?

Not sure where you are headed here?

They do joint naval exercises (for around 10 years), but have no formal pact. That seems highly unlikely to change - there are definite limits to their mutual cooperation. China is not coming to Russia’s aid in the event of conflict. 

China’s only formal ally is North Korea.

China is being more direct in exerting their influence. You can google Wolf Warrior Diplomacy to learn more about the evolution. They are in no way tied to an alliance with Russia.

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typo
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31 minutes ago, Rattle and Hum said:

But they have and operate with the support of China, no?

I was always under the impression that they don’t like each other, either, but they don’t like the West more.

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1 minute ago, Kal El said:

I was always under the impression that they don’t like each other, either, but they don’t like the West more.

Wary of each other. One aspect being Sino-Soviet border disputes. Russia has ceded over 100 islands to China since 1991.

It’s a relationship built upon mistrust.

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12 hours ago, Jayrod said:
16 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

Kyiv if you’re Ukrainian 🇺🇦 

Kiev if you’re Russian 🇷🇺 

Heard a lady on NPR pronounce it "keev" this week.  I had always said "key-ev".


Ukrainian professor of the Ukrainian language at University of Kansas lays it out. In Ukrainian, Київ (=Kyiv) is a two-syllable word, like Russian Киев (=Kiev) is. But the Ukrainian vowels are different -- plus the initial "k" in Ukrainian is a bit different.

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6 minutes ago, Doug B said:


Ukrainian professor of the Ukrainian language at University of Kansas lays it out. In Ukrainian, Київ (=Kyiv) is a two-syllable word, like Russian Киев (=Kiev) is. But the Ukrainian vowels are different -- plus the initial "k" in Ukrainian is a bit different.

Interesting bc Ukrainians around here pronounce it in one syllable - but it’s probably something subtle my untrained ear misses

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2 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:
10 minutes ago, Doug B said:


Ukrainian professor of the Ukrainian language at University of Kansas lays it out. In Ukrainian, Київ (=Kyiv) is a two-syllable word, like Russian Киев (=Kiev) is. But the Ukrainian vowels are different -- plus the initial "k" in Ukrainian is a bit different.

Interesting bc Ukrainians around here pronounce it in one syllable - but it’s probably something subtle my untrained ear misses


In the comments of that video, other Ukrainians are chiming in that they pronounce it differently from the professor in their dialects of Ukrainian :shrug:For all I know, she might be pronouncing it in what would be the equivalent of a Ukrainian 'Foghorn Leghorn' or 'Boston Brahmin' dialect.

Screw it -- "keeve" it is.

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3 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

Wary of each other. One aspect being Sino-Soviet border disputes. Russia has ceded over 100 islands to China since 1991.

It’s a relationship built upon mistrust.

That sounds like more trouble than it’s worth, really.

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1 hour ago, Doug B said:


In the comments of that video, other Ukrainians are chiming in that they pronounce it differently from the professor in their dialects of Ukrainian :shrug:For all I know, she might be pronouncing it in what would be the equivalent of a Ukrainian 'Foghorn Leghorn' or 'Boston Brahmin' dialect.

Screw it -- "keeve" it is.

I dated a Ukrainian for a year and a half. She said there were numerous dialects over there. It was interesting listening to her talk to somebody from Russia. A lot of the language was the same but then they’d struggle to find certain words that neither language had. So then they’d switch to English for that word lol. 

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10 minutes ago, Capella said:

I dated a Ukrainian for a year and a half. She said there were numerous dialects over there. It was interesting listening to her talk to somebody from Russia. A lot of the language was the same but then they’d struggle to find certain words that neither language had. So then they’d switch to English for that word lol. 

same with Chinese who speak Cantonese - dozens of dialects, same sounding words have completely unrelated meanings

they totally geek out when they meet someone with the same dialect

my daughter speaks Mandarin (schooling) and Toisanese (Gung Gung & Paw Paw)

million Chinese in NYC and she’s only met one person who speaks the same dialect as her grandparents 

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Reading a bit more today and this article articulates well what I'm starting to believe; that Putin is just using the troop buildup and ensuing hysteria to gain some concessions elsewhere.

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Putin approaching North Korean levels of comedy with this propaganda: 

Quote

 

"Moscow saying some units are returning to their bases, Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said: "15 February, 2022, will go down in history as the day Western war propaganda failed.

"Humiliated and destroyed without a single shot fired.""

 

 

Apparently Putin now claiming "we were just training", and the west has been "humiliated & destroyed" in historic fashion for thinking they were going to attack 😂 

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-ukraine-crisis-moscow-says-western-propaganda-has-failed-without-a-single-shot-fired-12542524

 

Kim Jong Un is Impressed 😂

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  • Jayrod changed the title to *** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun ***

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