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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun ***


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On 2/13/2022 at 9:47 AM, Capella said:

China ain’t going to war with us. Their entire economy depends on us. 

 

Really wish just one time China would say "You know..we are siding with the USA on this one"

Then Russia who say  Whoaaa

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4 hours ago, [icon] said:

Putin approaching North Korean levels of comedy with this propaganda: 

 

Apparently Putin now claiming "we were just training", and the west has been "humiliated & destroyed" in historic fashion for thinking they were going to attack 😂 

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-ukraine-crisis-moscow-says-western-propaganda-has-failed-without-a-single-shot-fired-12542524

 

Kim Jong Un is Impressed 😂

That’s pretty funny, but North Korea had funnier lies, like Kim Jong Il shooting something like a 34 with 6 aces the first time he touched a golf club.

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4 hours ago, [icon] said:

Putin approaching North Korean levels of comedy with this propaganda: 

 

Apparently Putin now claiming "we were just training", and the west has been "humiliated & destroyed" in historic fashion for thinking they were going to attack 😂 

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-ukraine-crisis-moscow-says-western-propaganda-has-failed-without-a-single-shot-fired-12542524

 

Kim Jong Un is Impressed 😂

 

21 hours ago, Jayrod said:

Reading a bit more today and this article articulates well what I'm starting to believe; that Putin is just using the troop buildup and ensuing hysteria to gain some concessions elsewhere.

Looking like maybe this was all a bunch of sabre rattling for Putin to gain some ground domestically and abroad.  Hoping that's all it is and this drawback is legit and not just feigning before a strike.

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On 2/12/2022 at 7:41 PM, BobbyLayne said:


In the Cold War/U.S.S.R. era, there were no NATO countries on they’d borders. East Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, and Albania were controlled by brutal force. Today 5 of the 14 countries bordering Russia are NATO allies.

The fundamental security promise of NATO is an attack on any member is considered an attack on all members. Ukraine is nowhere near being accepted (it takes a unanimous vote of 30-0) but it’s a distant possibility.  

Ukraine has been independent for 30+ years and holds democratic elections. The Communists have had no national representation in Ukraine since 2014. For obvious reasons Putin/Russia hate the example their neighbor sets.

I’m trying to better understand what Putin’s end game is - he’s given the UK/US impossible demands which he knows won’t be met (I.e., a halt to NATO’s expansion eastward, a formal veto on Ukraine from ever joining the military alliance, and a rollback of NATO military deployments in the region.)

On a micro level, many Russians feel Russia/Ukraine are inextricably linked. Historically they are one Slav people and have been since the 9th century. But this view of course ignores the wishes of the Ukrainian people, who long ago chose autonomy.

I'm no expert and do not know how this will shake out, but with regards to Putin's motivations, I think it's safe to say that he's just trying to protect his massive kleptocracy operation.  Threatening Ukraine rallies nationalistic-minded citizenry that distracts from his ongoing thievery (pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!), which would lead me to believe that he is bluffing; but on the other hand, he wants to drag down Ukraine by whatever means because a thriving neighbor will eventually come home to roost.  

Putin is cancer, and I hope that we (and the rest of the world, China notwithstanding) can sanction him into oblivion. 

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On 2/12/2022 at 7:41 PM, BobbyLayne said:

In the Cold War/U.S.S.R. era, there were no NATO countries on they’d border ... Today 5 of the 14 countries bordering Russia are NATO allies.


@BobbyLayne , I was trying to work these five out -- an opportunity for me to learn.

So, I got the three Baltic Republics -- Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. And Poland butts up against the Kaliningrad Oblast enclave. So that's four bordering NATO countries by land.

Which country is the fifth? Are you counting the sea border between the eastern tip of Siberia and Alaska (the Diomede Islands)? Or something else?

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6 minutes ago, Doug B said:


@BobbyLayne , I was trying to work these five out -- an opportunity for me to learn.

So, I got the three Baltic Republics -- Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. And Poland butts up against the Kaliningrad Oblast enclave. So that's four bordering NATO countries by land.

Which country is the fifth? Are you counting the sea border between the eastern tip of Siberia and Alaska (the Diomede Islands)? Or something else?

Romania 🇷🇴 

Edited by BobbyLayne
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3 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:
10 minutes ago, Doug B said:

@BobbyLayne , I was trying to work these five out -- an opportunity for me to learn.

So, I got the three Baltic Republics -- Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania. And Poland butts up against the Kaliningrad Oblast enclave. So that's four bordering NATO countries by land.

Which country is the fifth? Are you counting the sea border between the eastern tip of Siberia and Alaska (the Diomede Islands)? Or something else?

Romania 🇷🇴 

Romania?   :confused:

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5 minutes ago, Doug B said:

I don’t make the rules, I just parrot 🦜 them 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-nato-border-forces-map-where-are-they-positioned-a7562391.html?amp

I’ve seen twenty sources that say five. You should reach out to set the record straight bc their definition is flawed.

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Seems strange to us bc really only the Baltic states touch the Russian border. IDK the media consistently says 5. But maybe it’s bc Russian, Ukrainian, and Belorussian people are all Slavic?

Honestly don’t know the answer.

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@Doug B @Mister CIA

Along the 20,139-kilometer land frontier, Russia has boundaries with 14 countries: Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland (via the Kaliningrad Oblast), Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, the People's Republic of China and North Korea.

Bolded are the 5 NATO.

6% of Russia’s borders.

 

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Whether its 3, 4 or 5....either way, the point stands that Russia is already bordered by several NATO nations and their demand that Ukraine not become one because they don't want NATO troops on their border is ridiculous on the surface.

From what I've read, the real issue with Ukraine is Crimea.  According to international law, Russia is occupying that region illegal as it is still recognized as Ukrainian soil.  If Ukraine becomes part of NATO, there will have to be something done about that and likely that means the NATO allies forcing Russia out of there.  Most of this may very well be a warning that Russia is ready to go to war with everyone over Crimea, so Ukraine can't become a NATO ally.  Not sure about the endgame unless Russia can convince Ukraine and the rest of the world to just let them have it.

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38 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

I don’t make the rules, I just parrot 🦜 them 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-nato-border-forces-map-where-are-they-positioned-a7562391.html?amp

I’ve seen twenty sources that say five. You should reach out to set the record straight bc their definition is flawed.


The article you linked doesn't say or show five. However, I did find an apparent answer on NATO's own website -- the fifth one must, indeed, be the United States according the map shown under the "Myth 4" section (note where the yellow borders are drawn). That's despite them seeming to specify five land borders.

The two Diomede Islands are so close together -- one being Russia, the other the U.S. -- that maybe that just counts as a "land border" by some geopolitical ground rule :shrug: 

EDIT: Dang it -- the NATO map I just linked even shows the Norway border ... totally missed it :bag:

Edited by Doug B
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3 hours ago, Doug B said:


On the surface of the sun. Sunspots are the Dear Leader's footsteps.

I mean, did he really expect us to believe that? Shooter McGavin isn’t even that good!

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On 2/15/2022 at 11:49 AM, Jayrod said:

Looking like maybe this was all a bunch of sabre rattling for Putin to gain some ground domestically and abroad.  Hoping that's all it is and this drawback is legit and not just feigning before a strike.

I'm starting to think it was the latter.  Things are escalating.  Russia kicked our #2 diplomat out of their country and then announced that we have ignored their security demands.  Meanwhile Lukashenko (Belarusian President and Russia's closest ally, also bordering Ukraine) is mocking the Western world for being wrong about a Wednesday invasion and stating that they and Russia have essentially merged their armies into one force.

Still no actual invasion, but US intelligence is reporting that despite what Putin said, they are not actually removing any troops from the border and in fact may be increasing them.

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1 hour ago, culdeus said:

This seems like it's happening.  I mean doesn't feel like anyone is going to do a damn thing here and it will look like the Taliban taking over Kabul with Kiev this time.

 

Yep.  And after Ukraine there's nothing left but NATO countries.  The tanks are going to be muzzle-to-muzzle.

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On 2/13/2022 at 9:50 AM, BobbyLayne said:

Not sure where you are headed here?

They do joint naval exercises (for around 10 years), but have no formal pact. That seems highly unlikely to change - there are definite limits to their mutual cooperation. China is not coming to Russia’s aid in the event of conflict. 

China’s only formal ally is North Korea.

China is being more direct in exerting their influence. You can google Wolf Warrior Diplomacy to learn more about the evolution. They are in no way tied to an alliance with Russia.

 

I'm late to the game here. Just seem Russia doesn't have to worry about the financial  backlash (sanctions) of the West with China's support so they can act aggressively:

Bond Between China and Russia Alarms U.S. and Europe Amid Ukraine Crisis

Russia, China agree 30-year gas deal via new pipeline, to settle in euros

...“China is our strategic cushion,” Sergey Karaganov, a Kremlin adviser, told Nikkei. “We know that in any difficult situation, we can lean on it for military, political and economic support.”...

etc.

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Well crap.  Russia is moving in.

They are "recognizing" the factions they planted as separate from Ukraine and are moving in to "assist" them with establishing control against the big bad Ukrainian government.

The ruse was established and justification manufactured so here we are and tanks have now rolled in (though unmarked).  Not sure if the ultimate goal is to take Kiev or not, but the war on the ground has started.

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19 minutes ago, Jayrod said:

Well crap.  Russia is moving in.

They are "recognizing" the factions they planted as separate from Ukraine and are moving in to "assist" them with establishing control against the big bad Ukrainian government.

The ruse was established and justification manufactured so here we are and tanks have now rolled in (though unmarked).  Not sure if the ultimate goal is to take Kiev or not, but the war on the ground has started.

 

Feels like kiev will wait for the last movie in the trilogy. 

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The UN Security Council met tonight to discuss the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Council is currently chaired by....Russia. :confused:

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1 hour ago, Jayrod said:

They are "recognizing" the factions they planted as separate from Ukraine and are moving in to "assist" them with establishing control against the big bad Ukrainian government.

While not a perfect analogy, sounds a bit Sudetenland ish.

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There is no analogy for this sort of annexation with a nuclear backdrop to it. It is not a repeat of anything heretofore seen. 

It sounds like the pipeline between Germany and Russia will be a fulcrum of any proposed sanctions. Should Germany keep its pipeline with Russia turned on, a NATO country will be unwilling to exercise sanctions against Russia for taking part of Ukraine. 

Should be interesting. 

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52 minutes ago, rockaction said:

There is no analogy for this sort of annexation with a nuclear backdrop to it. It is not a repeat of anything heretofore seen. 

It sounds like the pipeline between Germany and Russia will be a fulcrum of any proposed sanctions. Should Germany keep its pipeline with Russia turned on, a NATO country will be unwilling to exercise sanctions against Russia for taking part of Ukraine. 

Should be interesting. 

Agree.  Germany's actions will play a large role in how all this plays out.  Turn off the pipeline and Russia's economy is toast.

Just one more reason to get off fossil fuel as fast as possible. 

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50 minutes ago, James Daulton said:

Agree.  Germany's actions will play a large role in how all this plays out.  Turn off the pipeline and Russia's economy is toast.

Just one more reason to get off fossil fuel as fast as possible. 


One minute ago from the Guardian: 

Philip Oltermann

Germany has stopped the certification process for the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in reaction to Russia’s recognition of the self-proclaimed republics in Luhansk and Donetsk in east Ukraine, chancellor Olaf Scholz has announced.

On Tuesday morning, Germany’s energy minister, Robert Habeck, instructed the withdrawal of a positive assessment required to authorise the pipeline between Russia and Germany.

“Without this certification Nord Stream 2 cannot go into operation,” Scholz said at a press conference in Berlin at midday.

The German leader described Putin’s recognition of the Russian-controlled territories as a “grave breach” of international law that broke with decades of agreements between Russia and the west. “The situation today is fundamentally different”.

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  • Jayrod changed the title to *** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun ***

Chess match here.  Russia aggressively moves into two regions where they've already been interfering (heavy Russian populations) ...NATO starts with some sanctions.  What's the next move?  Is this like Crimea with an uneasy, new balance within Ukraine? 

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2 minutes ago, tri-man 47 said:

Chess match here.  Russia aggressively moves into two regions where they've already been interfering (heavy Russian populations) ...NATO starts with some sanctions.  What's the next move?  Is this like Crimea with an uneasy, new balance within Ukraine? 

Go after the the ex-pat oligarchs. Freeze their money, take their yachts, kick their kids out of unversities.  Maybe send ICE down to Miami and start deporting Russian citizens. I hear the weather is beautiful in Russia this time of year.

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Germany dropped the biggest hammer they had this side of sending troops by locking up the gas pipeline deal Russia had with them.  There was some belief that they wouldn't have the guts to do that with their own energy and economic problems looming.  Good on the Germans for doing the right thing this go around.

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So the US, the UK, EU, Canada, Japan & Australia have dropped sanctions on Russia.  Read some stuff that the UK has a lot of Russian oligarch's assets and have more power in this regard than the US.  However, a lot of Russian financial activity is done in US dollars.

Word prior to this week was that Putin was prepared for all of this and was leaning on China to insulate from the financial sanctions from the West.  We'll see.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has instituted a draft for all reservists age 18-60.

Still no word on if Ukraine is going on the offensive into the disputed regions or not.  They claimed they were better prepared technologically to fight this time than in 2014.

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Explosions heard/felt this morning around Kiev and Kharkiv.  Belief is that they are hitting key air defense systems to allow for Russian air control.

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6 hours ago, matuski said:

The strategy sounds familiar.

Without going unhinged politics.. why does the USA presume to have a leg to stand on?

It’s a pointless endeavor. Putin wants Ukrainian territory, and he will apparently do whatever it takes to get it.

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Watching this one closely. My wife was born and raised in Lublin, Poland (about 90 min from Ukraine’s western border), and her mom and several other friends and family members still live there. We have plane tickets to visit in May.

I don't think Putin would be dumb enough to #### with a NATO country, but you never know with this clown…

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One of our new professors that I work with was born in Russia but moved to Crimea when she was ten.  She left in 2015 (after the Russian takeover) fearing for her safety.  Her mother is still there.  The professor offered a presentation just yesterday on the effect of the takeover on Crimea …not pretty due to a major economic downturn and loss of freedoms.  One of my students from the fall term is Ukrainian and had hoped to visit family there last month.  I feel so bad for her and others.

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I'm going to try and spend my time in this thread instead of the Politics Forum one because it is disintegrating into Biden vs Trump.

We still don't have a firm grasp on what Putin's goal is here, but troops have moved in on all three sides (East from Russia, South with landings from the Black Sea and North out of Belarus, with the help of Belarus troops).  There were explosions in Kharkiv (East), Odessa (South port) and Kiev (capital in the center north) starting around 5am Ukraine time (about 11:00pm EST).  The vast majority of the strikes were to Ukrainian military targets, but some collateral damage (including a hospital) has been reported.  How far and how fast the ground troops are moving is unkown to us at this point.  Ukraine has been preparing for this for 8 years since Russia took Crimea, but it still has been a shock to the people as they were starting to think it would never happen.

Many people are fleeing to the Eastern portion of the country and the city of Lviv, but the Ukrainian government told the people to stay in their homes.  Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, refused to flee the country earlier this week and is declaring they will fight Russia and asking for help from the world.

No nation or international organization is obligated to help with troops and no one is currently saying they will send troops in to help.  Ukraine is likely in this alone within their own borders.  The US has moved troops to the NATO nations that either border Russia, Belarus or Ukraine (i.e. Poland, Romania and the Baltic states).

This is as real of a top tier military war as we've seen since WW2.  The EU, US, UK and NATO appear to be willing to sanction Russia and send supplies to Ukraine but that will likely be it.

Godspeed Ukraine.

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