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🐎 *OFFICIAL 2022 Horse Racing Extravaganza Traveling Road Show Thread - Life Gettin' Better At Big Sandy* 🐎 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter otb_lifer
- Start date
Judge Smails
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Dr. No
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
back to the Derby ...
Morello dropped, opening a slot for one of the also-rans ... Pioneer of Medina is next up, but dunno how the connections are gonna proceed - think of PoM as a Walmart knockoff of Early Voting - we'll see.
but the Morello defection takes out yet another who was probably gonna hotly press the early pace (along with fellow defectors Classic Causeway & Forbidden Kingdom) -
i still believe Simplification is gonna go as hard and as fast as he can, but the presser/stalk pack keeps losing company ... so we should see Zozos, Mess, Epi, Tab pretty forwardly placed behind Simp and whoever else is gonna make the charge - Zozos may be first call on top once Simp falters, and if he is sitting on the monster i believe he is, he may hang around for minor spoils.
all the above predicated on Early Voting sitting out, as well.
Morello dropped, opening a slot for one of the also-rans ... Pioneer of Medina is next up, but dunno how the connections are gonna proceed - think of PoM as a Walmart knockoff of Early Voting - we'll see.
but the Morello defection takes out yet another who was probably gonna hotly press the early pace (along with fellow defectors Classic Causeway & Forbidden Kingdom) -
i still believe Simplification is gonna go as hard and as fast as he can, but the presser/stalk pack keeps losing company ... so we should see Zozos, Mess, Epi, Tab pretty forwardly placed behind Simp and whoever else is gonna make the charge - Zozos may be first call on top once Simp falters, and if he is sitting on the monster i believe he is, he may hang around for minor spoils.
all the above predicated on Early Voting sitting out, as well.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Classic Causeway is back ...
After saying as recently as Sunday he had no plans to send Classic Causeway into Kentucky Derby 2022, trainer Brian Lynch has changed his tune.
Lynch confirmed Monday that the two-time graded-stakes winner who finished last in the Florida Derby (G1) will take his place with jockey Julien Leparoux in the starting gate May 7. The Churchill Downs media office first reported the development Monday.
After saying as recently as Sunday he had no plans to send Classic Causeway into Kentucky Derby 2022, trainer Brian Lynch has changed his tune.
Lynch confirmed Monday that the two-time graded-stakes winner who finished last in the Florida Derby (G1) will take his place with jockey Julien Leparoux in the starting gate May 7. The Churchill Downs media office first reported the development Monday.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
how much for a root canal?
I just can’t see a situation where Zozos isn’t swallowed up at the top of the lane and fades a bit. Epi can collar him any time he wants. Mess can battle him too. We’ll see
otb_lifer
Footballguy
still waiting to see if Early Voting drops ... but if we get CC, EV, Simp, Zozos, SiT all roaring out, then i think the odds of him getting taxed before the stretch grow much larger ... the stalk pack will pick 'em up.
one scenario not bandied about is if Epi or Mess just decide to GO! from jump ... JV did it last year on MS (has Mess this year), and Epi's connections may be more comfortable trying to let them catch him ... which i believe they will, but - it could happen.
PS: on Zozos - just saw Geroux jump ship to your boy Cyberknife, putting Franco up on Zo ... new jock now, to boot.
he's gonna have to be loving that surface in his works for me to continue considering underneath.
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
NO CHURCHILL WORKS FOR TAB/MESS ...
-Tab had to skip a scheduled work, so will now only have one under his belt before he ships-
per DRF:
Taiba, the winner of the Santa Anita Derby, will have just one work in preparation for the Kentucky Derby, trainer Tim Yakteen said Saturday, a few hours after he had worked his other potential Derby starter, Santa Anita Derby runner-up Messier.
Taiba was making only his second start in the Santa Anita Derby. Yakteen said Taiba “took the race well, but it was a hard race, and I want to make sure he’s energetic.”
“He doesn’t need much to be fit,” Yakteen said. “I want to go in on the fresher side. He’ll work Thursday or Friday this coming week. I’ll give him a few stronger gallops.”
Taiba’s lone start before the Santa Anita Derby was a maiden sprint five weeks earlier. Fitness was certainly not an issue in the April 9 Santa Anita Derby, as he beat Messier on the square while stretching out to 1 1/8 miles.
Taiba is attempting to become the first horse to win the Derby in only his third start since Leonatus in 1883, and the first horse ever to win the Derby in his third start without having raced as a 2-year-old.
Messier, who worked five furlongs in 59.80 seconds on Saturday at Santa Anita, is also scheduled to work Thursday or Friday, Yakteen said. Both colts are scheduled to fly from California to Kentucky on May 1, and neither is scheduled to work at Churchill Downs, Yakteen said.
Both Taiba and Messier were trained by Bob Baffert prior to Baffert having to serve a 90-day suspension owing to a medication violation for Medina Spirit in last year’s Derby. That suspension ends July 2. Taiba, like Medina Spirit, is owned by Amr Zedan, who purchased Taiba as a 2-year-old in training last year for $1.7 million.
to my bolded on Mess: hell yes, that is a beauty work.
to Tab's upcoming sched: hmmm. this is a freak animal, boys and girls ... dunno how much of a ding i sling, but one will be swung.
-Tab had to skip a scheduled work, so will now only have one under his belt before he ships-
per DRF:
Taiba, the winner of the Santa Anita Derby, will have just one work in preparation for the Kentucky Derby, trainer Tim Yakteen said Saturday, a few hours after he had worked his other potential Derby starter, Santa Anita Derby runner-up Messier.
Taiba was making only his second start in the Santa Anita Derby. Yakteen said Taiba “took the race well, but it was a hard race, and I want to make sure he’s energetic.”
“He doesn’t need much to be fit,” Yakteen said. “I want to go in on the fresher side. He’ll work Thursday or Friday this coming week. I’ll give him a few stronger gallops.”
Taiba’s lone start before the Santa Anita Derby was a maiden sprint five weeks earlier. Fitness was certainly not an issue in the April 9 Santa Anita Derby, as he beat Messier on the square while stretching out to 1 1/8 miles.
Taiba is attempting to become the first horse to win the Derby in only his third start since Leonatus in 1883, and the first horse ever to win the Derby in his third start without having raced as a 2-year-old.
Messier, who worked five furlongs in 59.80 seconds on Saturday at Santa Anita, is also scheduled to work Thursday or Friday, Yakteen said. Both colts are scheduled to fly from California to Kentucky on May 1, and neither is scheduled to work at Churchill Downs, Yakteen said.
Both Taiba and Messier were trained by Bob Baffert prior to Baffert having to serve a 90-day suspension owing to a medication violation for Medina Spirit in last year’s Derby. That suspension ends July 2. Taiba, like Medina Spirit, is owned by Amr Zedan, who purchased Taiba as a 2-year-old in training last year for $1.7 million.
to my bolded on Mess: hell yes, that is a beauty work.
to Tab's upcoming sched: hmmm. this is a freak animal, boys and girls ... dunno how much of a ding i sling, but one will be swung.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Zozos did well today according to Welsch..
Zozos made a particularly favorable impression today while coming down the stretch with his head cocked outward in much the same manner as during his strong work on Friday
-fish-
Footballguy
I went back and watched all of Messier's races. I think he's overmatched at 1 1/4. In the Los Alamitos Futurity, he got beaten by Slow Down Andy, who was looking at people in the crowd and running sideways down the stretch as he passed Messier. Messier saw this horse running like a donkey go by and pulled back to even, but then Slow Down Andy decided to look where he was going and finished him off.
Santa Anita Derby was similar. Messier had a huge move to put Forbidden Kingdom away at the 3/16 pole, but when Taiba passed him he didn't really even try to battle back. He's raced nothing but small fields (5, 6, 4, 5, 5 and 6). The only horse I'm sure he can beat at this point is Forbidden Kingdom.
I'm not buying a scenario where he runs away with it. He'd need a phenomenal start and a bunch of horses that have shown they can come from off the pace to get hung up in traffic.
I'm focusing on Epi and Taiba, and tossing Mess lets me add some long prices to some trifectas.
Santa Anita Derby was similar. Messier had a huge move to put Forbidden Kingdom away at the 3/16 pole, but when Taiba passed him he didn't really even try to battle back. He's raced nothing but small fields (5, 6, 4, 5, 5 and 6). The only horse I'm sure he can beat at this point is Forbidden Kingdom.
I'm not buying a scenario where he runs away with it. He'd need a phenomenal start and a bunch of horses that have shown they can come from off the pace to get hung up in traffic.
I'm focusing on Epi and Taiba, and tossing Mess lets me add some long prices to some trifectas.
Ron Swanson
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Mess was rated co-fave with Epi prior to the SA Derby, and i am with that kinda respect.
he will be a nice underlay, prolly looking at easy double digits - again, i don't ever use the WIN bet for the Derby, but he will be on all my spreads, and i hope he keeps getting knocked and tossed - better value if he boards.
still in the solid 5 i say are 'must use' (Epi, Tab, Zandy, Mo, Mess).
there's gonna be enough disposable speed for him to not get caught up in a hot early pace, lest they decide to send - but, pending draws, i see that as Classic Causeway/Early Voting/ Simplification/Summer Is Tomorrow/Zozos ... and possibly Charge it & White Abby.
the stalk pack will feature all our heavy hitters, and i believe Mo & Zandy gotta stay a bit closer if they wanna win this thing ... can't see the class horses getting roped into a speed trap with the lot who will most likely be leading the way.
i refuse to toss ol' Mess, but i would not fault anybody for feeling he's burning money on their tix
-fish-
Footballguy
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Welsch is very interested to monitor this horse. Liked the way he’s looked since arriving and in the last few years horses from Japan have run well in big races.Crown Pride (Jpn) ripped a 46.4/4f on the fast morning work tack.
Epicenter is the push button horse if he’s not over the top. He’s won on the front, rated kindly in the last and he’s won geared down twice at 1 1/8. Running style fits best. Cyber knife has been training really well. Think he runs a Hot Rod Charlie type trip. Not sure if he’s good enough to win but he’s training so well I think he is in the money. Those 2 will be my keys most likely for tri’s and supers. Likely on all my tickets if they have good post positions. Taiba will be on some tickets. Could win or run 15th trying something new with 20 horses. I’ll only bet if he gets an 8 or further outside. Zander will be on a lot of tickets in all spots. Could win, could get buried and come late for 4th. Mo I’ll play only at the bottom. Both could have trouble but Prat is the best bet to find a trip. Crown Pride will be on a couple Hail Mary tickets including he win if he keeps working well. Messier only 3rd/4th. Pretty much tossing the rest.
Gut tells me Epicenter, Cyberknife and Zander for top 3 unless somebody really shows they love the track
-fish-
Footballguy
Yeah Welsch was raving about that this morning.Crown Pride (Jpn) ripped a 46.4/4f on the fast morning work tack.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
I’ll be there Tuesday through Sunday. Can’t wait. I’ve heard the buzz for this year is off the charts. Pent up demand post pandemic. If people don’t have restaurants booked, cars reserved, etc good luck to them.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
yeahhh ... really hoping a horse i'm on the fence with actually gets the fence (1 hole), makes the toss up top so much easier - will economize my tix.
but i won't totally discount a 1 hole horse from the unders - horse i loved a few years ago, Lookin' At Lee, lugged up to the exacta as the #1, and he was not a stakes winner prior to the Derby.
what really blows is if a horse i'm already tossing bags the #1, 'cause i was chuckin' their ### anyways ... thus far i have 5 who will not see my tix: White Abby, Simplification, Summer Is Tomorrow, Un Ojo, Tawny Port.
coupled with the 5 i will use, that leaves 10 to sort through, as per post, works, etc.
leaving the door open for some bombs ... it's worth the spread, and i believe i'll have ample coverage with savers to back myself up.
will you be making any appearances in the early mornings for final breezes, gallops, etc?
otb_lifer
Footballguy
some new wagers (dat pick 3 rake, tho) being offered this year ... but still no dime supers, @Cowboysfan8
- As part of its wagering menu for Kentucky Derby day May 7, Churchill Downs will offer an 'All 3-Year-Old' Pick 3 and an all-dirt Pick 5 wager, both of which close with the Run for the Roses.
The 3-year-old Pick 3 will have a minimum $3 stake and includes the $500,000 GII American Turf and the GII Pat Day Mile before concluding with the Derby. Like all rolling 50-cent Pick 3s, the wager will have a 22% takeout.
An all-dirt, all-stakes Pick 5 will have a 50-cent minimum and 15% takeout while including the $160,000 Knicks Go S., the $750,000 GI Derby City Distaff, the $750,000 GI Churchill Downs S., the Pat Day Mile and the Derby.
Along with the track's jackpot bet, the Derby City 6, Churchill will once again offer the two-day Oaks/Derby Pick 6 with a $2 minimum (2019 handle $479,561). The wager begins on Friday, May 6 with the $750,000 GI La Troienne S. and the $1.25-million GI Longines Kentucky Oaks before concluding on Saturday with the Derby City Distaff, Churchill Downs S., the $1-million GI Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic and the Derby.
There will be four traditional Pick 5 and Pick 4 wagers on Kentucky Derby Day. The third Pick 5 (2019 handle: $3,980,809) and third Pick 4 (2019 handle: $4,091,771) will feature an all-stakes sequence and culminate in the Derby.
Superfecta wagers will be a $1 minimum on Kentucky Derby and Oaks days but will be a 10-cent minimum on all other days.
- As part of its wagering menu for Kentucky Derby day May 7, Churchill Downs will offer an 'All 3-Year-Old' Pick 3 and an all-dirt Pick 5 wager, both of which close with the Run for the Roses.
The 3-year-old Pick 3 will have a minimum $3 stake and includes the $500,000 GII American Turf and the GII Pat Day Mile before concluding with the Derby. Like all rolling 50-cent Pick 3s, the wager will have a 22% takeout.
An all-dirt, all-stakes Pick 5 will have a 50-cent minimum and 15% takeout while including the $160,000 Knicks Go S., the $750,000 GI Derby City Distaff, the $750,000 GI Churchill Downs S., the Pat Day Mile and the Derby.
Along with the track's jackpot bet, the Derby City 6, Churchill will once again offer the two-day Oaks/Derby Pick 6 with a $2 minimum (2019 handle $479,561). The wager begins on Friday, May 6 with the $750,000 GI La Troienne S. and the $1.25-million GI Longines Kentucky Oaks before concluding on Saturday with the Derby City Distaff, Churchill Downs S., the $1-million GI Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic and the Derby.
There will be four traditional Pick 5 and Pick 4 wagers on Kentucky Derby Day. The third Pick 5 (2019 handle: $3,980,809) and third Pick 4 (2019 handle: $4,091,771) will feature an all-stakes sequence and culminate in the Derby.
Superfecta wagers will be a $1 minimum on Kentucky Derby and Oaks days but will be a 10-cent minimum on all other days.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
some new wagers (dat pick 3 rake, tho) being offered this year ... but still no dime supers, @Cowboysfan8
- As part of its wagering menu for Kentucky Derby day May 7, Churchill Downs will offer an 'All 3-Year-Old' Pick 3 and an all-dirt Pick 5 wager, both of which close with the Run for the Roses.
The 3-year-old Pick 3 will have a minimum $3 stake and includes the $500,000 GII American Turf and the GII Pat Day Mile before concluding with the Derby. Like all rolling 50-cent Pick 3s, the wager will have a 22% takeout.
An all-dirt, all-stakes Pick 5 will have a 50-cent minimum and 15% takeout while including the $160,000 Knicks Go S., the $750,000 GI Derby City Distaff, the $750,000 GI Churchill Downs S., the Pat Day Mile and the Derby.
Along with the track's jackpot bet, the Derby City 6, Churchill will once again offer the two-day Oaks/Derby Pick 6 with a $2 minimum (2019 handle $479,561). The wager begins on Friday, May 6 with the $750,000 GI La Troienne S. and the $1.25-million GI Longines Kentucky Oaks before concluding on Saturday with the Derby City Distaff, Churchill Downs S., the $1-million GI Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic and the Derby.
There will be four traditional Pick 5 and Pick 4 wagers on Kentucky Derby Day. The third Pick 5 (2019 handle: $3,980,809) and third Pick 4 (2019 handle: $4,091,771) will feature an all-stakes sequence and culminate in the Derby.
Superfecta wagers will be a $1 minimum on Kentucky Derby and Oaks days but will be a 10-cent minimum on all other days.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
- a look at speed, from three different angles, per HRN:
Messier and Taiba lead all contenders in the Beyer Speed Figure department. Messier earned a 103 Beyer in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3). Taiba earned the same number when defeating his stablemate in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Epicenter is the only other horse in the field to earn a figure above 100, earning a 102 Beyer in the Louisiana Derby.
TimeformUS also values the strength of Tim Yakteen's duo. Messier's career high of 127 and Taiba's best of 125 top the field. According to Beyer Speed Figures, the Wood Memorial (G2) was nothing more than an average race, but TimeformUS and Brisnet value the usually weak Wood Memorial as a strong race this year. Early Voting's 122 TimeformUS number and Mo Donegal's 121 figure are the third and fourth best in the field. They both earned a Brisnet Rating of 111, which tie with Taiba for the best in the Derby.
Among long shots, Zozos has the best chance to spring an upset, based on speed figures. He has faster numbers across the board than Florida Derby winner White Abarrio and will likely be double the price. His Beyers have progressed from 70 to 88 to 98. His Brisnet Ratings have improved from 76 to 98, and his TimeformUS numbers has gone from 98 to 116 in only three starts.
Zozos joins Epicenter, Early Voting, Pioneer of Medina and Zandon as the only horses in the field whose speed figures have gone up each time they have run in each of the three categories.
According to the speed figures, Arkansas is the circuit to avoid in this year's Kentucky Derby. For winning the Arkansas Derby (G1), Cyberknife earned a Brisnet Figure three points lower than Happy Jack did while being dusted in the Santa Anita Derby. Un Ojo notched only an 84 Beyer Speed Figure for his upset win in the Rebel (G2). Barber Road ran in all four of the Derby preps in Arkansas and failed to put forth a figure that makes him competitive in any of those races.
Below is a closer look at the career best Beyer Speed Figures, Brisnet Speed Ratings and TimeformUS Speed Figures for the North American contenders in the prospective 2022 Kentucky Derby field.
Beyer/Bris/Timeform
Messier 103 108 127
Taiba 103 111 125
Epicenter 102 101 118
Zandon 98 103 119
Zozos 98 98 116
White Abarrio 97 97 114
Mo Donegal 96 111 121
Pioneer of Medina 96 96 114
Simplification 96 103 115
Early Voting 96 111 122
Smile Happy 94 101 118
Tiz the Bomb 94 101 118
Charge It 93 98 113
Cyberknife 92 94 114
Tawny Port 90 99 116
Classic Causeway 90 99 113
Barber Road 88 93 110
Un Ojo 84 92 107
Happy Jack 83 97 111
Messier and Taiba lead all contenders in the Beyer Speed Figure department. Messier earned a 103 Beyer in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3). Taiba earned the same number when defeating his stablemate in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Epicenter is the only other horse in the field to earn a figure above 100, earning a 102 Beyer in the Louisiana Derby.
TimeformUS also values the strength of Tim Yakteen's duo. Messier's career high of 127 and Taiba's best of 125 top the field. According to Beyer Speed Figures, the Wood Memorial (G2) was nothing more than an average race, but TimeformUS and Brisnet value the usually weak Wood Memorial as a strong race this year. Early Voting's 122 TimeformUS number and Mo Donegal's 121 figure are the third and fourth best in the field. They both earned a Brisnet Rating of 111, which tie with Taiba for the best in the Derby.
Among long shots, Zozos has the best chance to spring an upset, based on speed figures. He has faster numbers across the board than Florida Derby winner White Abarrio and will likely be double the price. His Beyers have progressed from 70 to 88 to 98. His Brisnet Ratings have improved from 76 to 98, and his TimeformUS numbers has gone from 98 to 116 in only three starts.
Zozos joins Epicenter, Early Voting, Pioneer of Medina and Zandon as the only horses in the field whose speed figures have gone up each time they have run in each of the three categories.
According to the speed figures, Arkansas is the circuit to avoid in this year's Kentucky Derby. For winning the Arkansas Derby (G1), Cyberknife earned a Brisnet Figure three points lower than Happy Jack did while being dusted in the Santa Anita Derby. Un Ojo notched only an 84 Beyer Speed Figure for his upset win in the Rebel (G2). Barber Road ran in all four of the Derby preps in Arkansas and failed to put forth a figure that makes him competitive in any of those races.
Below is a closer look at the career best Beyer Speed Figures, Brisnet Speed Ratings and TimeformUS Speed Figures for the North American contenders in the prospective 2022 Kentucky Derby field.
Beyer/Bris/Timeform
Messier 103 108 127
Taiba 103 111 125
Epicenter 102 101 118
Zandon 98 103 119
Zozos 98 98 116
White Abarrio 97 97 114
Mo Donegal 96 111 121
Pioneer of Medina 96 96 114
Simplification 96 103 115
Early Voting 96 111 122
Smile Happy 94 101 118
Tiz the Bomb 94 101 118
Charge It 93 98 113
Cyberknife 92 94 114
Tawny Port 90 99 116
Classic Causeway 90 99 113
Barber Road 88 93 110
Un Ojo 84 92 107
Happy Jack 83 97 111
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Judge Smails
Footballguy
Thought this was a really good article by Jon White
https://www.xpressbet.com/component/content/article/11-xb360/xb-blog/11457-jon-white-kentucky-derby-top-10-has-much-movement
https://www.xpressbet.com/component/content/article/11-xb360/xb-blog/11457-jon-white-kentucky-derby-top-10-has-much-movement
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Moar "Pace Makes The Race" fodder, as per recent vintage calling cards with Bris:
A handicapping tool for the Kentucky Derby (G1), Brisnet Late Pace ratings measure how fast a horse ran from the second call of a race to the wire.
The Kentucky Derby will be the first start at the 1 1/4-mile distance for contestants, and past winners have earned strong Late Pace numbers in prep races.
Since 2010, American Pharoah, Justify, Nyquist, Always Dreaming, I’ll Have Another, Orb, and Animal Kingdom all registered triple-digit Late Pace ratings, at least once, from their final two starts before winning the Kentucky Derby.
No horse has finished first in the Kentucky Derby without netting at least an 86 Late Pace figure in the final prep over that time span.
Seven contenders – Mo Donegal (121), Zandon (114), Taiba (109), Epicenter (106), Tiz the Bomb (105), Smile Happy (102), and Messier (102) – registered triple-digit Late Pace ratings in the final prep. Four others – Zozos, Barber Road, Charge It, and Un Ojo – accomplished it in their penultimate start.
Wood Memorial winner Mo Donegal and Zandon earned massive last-out numbers. Justify (114) is the only official winner with a last-out 110+ figure since 2010, but Maximum Security earned a 123 in the Florida Derby before being disqualified for interference in 2019.
The Blue Grass (Zandon and Smile Happy), Santa Anita Derby (Taiba and Messier) produced multiple runners with triple-digit Late Pace ratings.
The Arkansas Derby was not fast late, as Cyberknife (86), Barber Road (86), and Un Ojo (74) all rank outside the top 10 in last-race numbers.
The Florida Derby came back slower, as White Abarrio (77), Charge It (77), and Simplification (70) all failed to get out of the 70s.
A handicapping tool for the Kentucky Derby (G1), Brisnet Late Pace ratings measure how fast a horse ran from the second call of a race to the wire.
The Kentucky Derby will be the first start at the 1 1/4-mile distance for contestants, and past winners have earned strong Late Pace numbers in prep races.
Since 2010, American Pharoah, Justify, Nyquist, Always Dreaming, I’ll Have Another, Orb, and Animal Kingdom all registered triple-digit Late Pace ratings, at least once, from their final two starts before winning the Kentucky Derby.
No horse has finished first in the Kentucky Derby without netting at least an 86 Late Pace figure in the final prep over that time span.
Seven contenders – Mo Donegal (121), Zandon (114), Taiba (109), Epicenter (106), Tiz the Bomb (105), Smile Happy (102), and Messier (102) – registered triple-digit Late Pace ratings in the final prep. Four others – Zozos, Barber Road, Charge It, and Un Ojo – accomplished it in their penultimate start.
Wood Memorial winner Mo Donegal and Zandon earned massive last-out numbers. Justify (114) is the only official winner with a last-out 110+ figure since 2010, but Maximum Security earned a 123 in the Florida Derby before being disqualified for interference in 2019.
The Blue Grass (Zandon and Smile Happy), Santa Anita Derby (Taiba and Messier) produced multiple runners with triple-digit Late Pace ratings.
The Arkansas Derby was not fast late, as Cyberknife (86), Barber Road (86), and Un Ojo (74) all rank outside the top 10 in last-race numbers.
The Florida Derby came back slower, as White Abarrio (77), Charge It (77), and Simplification (70) all failed to get out of the 70s.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
we've spoken about how the points system has drastically changed the parameters of the pace - the cheap speed legislated out, and the ensuing form has been that of horses on the lead pack as being the best bets to hit the line first.
i ran across this from DRF, which not only confirms that, but hammers it home with some eye-popping raw data:
Based on the results of recent Derbies, the early scrum for position will be paramount, according to a study by **** Jerardi, the Eclipse Award-winning former turf writer for the Philadelphia Daily News and a member of Beyer and Associates, which produces the Beyer Speed Figures in Daily Racing Form.
Since Churchill Downs switched to a points system for the 2013 Derby, the first-place finisher on Derby Day has been worse than third a quarter-mile into the race just once, when Orb rallied from 16th in 2013. Over the past six years, the first-place finisher was no worse than second, and the last three to cross the wire first – Maximum Security, Authentic, and Medina Spirit – all led with one lap to go in the 1 1/4-mile race.
The first-place finisher in those nine races was, on average, placed 3.44 – between third and fourth – a quarter-mile into the race. But if Orb is considered an outlier, the most-recent eight to finish first finds them, on average, placed 1.88 after coming past the finish post the first time.
Compare that to the 23 years before the points system was enacted, from 1990 to 2012, when earnings in graded stakes was the criteria.
In those races, Jerardi found, the average position of the winner a quarter-mile into the race was 9.5, somewhere between ninth and 10th. Only two of those 23 were first or second a quarter-mile into the race – Go for Gin, who in 1994 was second with a mile to go, and War Emblem, who led from start to finish in his upset victory in 2002.
so we went from the winner being no better than 9th, on avg, at that juncture of the race to the winner being no worse than second (if we chuck the Orb outlier) at the ####### qtr!
the controlling speed these days is frequently a horse with excellent cruising class, able to stay in touch with the front, then having enough to finish the job - provided they didn't wire 'em.
more ...
Over the years, there often has been an overcorrection to the Derby pace based on what transpired the previous year or two. For instance, War Emblem pulled off his upset by going the opening half in 47.04 seconds, with riders seemingly still cognizant of the scorching 2001 pace of 44.86 seconds – a Derby record – that set the race up for Monarchos. Smarty Jones in 2004 stalked an opening half of 46.73 seconds. The following year, the overcorrection resulted in the opening half going in 45.38 seconds, setting the stage for Giacomo’s 50-1 upset.
Medina Spirit went the opening half in 46.70 seconds, Authentic in 46.41. If horses go faster than that in the Derby, it’s often too fast. Yet with positional speed so important now, the high-wire act for a jockey may be getting to a prominent spot without going too fast. That’s been the sweet spot in recent years.
so, this will be the 9th Derby since Orb upset the prevailing numbers ... form is due to break at some time, but i just can't see the connections of the big timber here ####ting their pants because Classic Causeway may rattle off a sub :46 half - we know who will most likely be right on his ###, but we also know cats like Zandy & Mo loom very large if they can attend a bit closer.
all conjecture, sure ... but the proof is in the pudding - if one is playing straight WIN, or looking to economize the top slot of their tix ... well, do you feel like form holds? if so, this really boils down to only a few to seriously consider in that regard.
... or does an upstart like Zozos continue to show his robust pattern of speed upswings, and deliver a huge number?
if one is looking at precedent to hold up top, then one needs to consider who is in the best form heading into this baby - Classic Causeway will undoubtedly lead for the first half, but the only ticket i'll have him on is "who will finish 20th".
i ran across this from DRF, which not only confirms that, but hammers it home with some eye-popping raw data:
Based on the results of recent Derbies, the early scrum for position will be paramount, according to a study by **** Jerardi, the Eclipse Award-winning former turf writer for the Philadelphia Daily News and a member of Beyer and Associates, which produces the Beyer Speed Figures in Daily Racing Form.
Since Churchill Downs switched to a points system for the 2013 Derby, the first-place finisher on Derby Day has been worse than third a quarter-mile into the race just once, when Orb rallied from 16th in 2013. Over the past six years, the first-place finisher was no worse than second, and the last three to cross the wire first – Maximum Security, Authentic, and Medina Spirit – all led with one lap to go in the 1 1/4-mile race.
The first-place finisher in those nine races was, on average, placed 3.44 – between third and fourth – a quarter-mile into the race. But if Orb is considered an outlier, the most-recent eight to finish first finds them, on average, placed 1.88 after coming past the finish post the first time.
Compare that to the 23 years before the points system was enacted, from 1990 to 2012, when earnings in graded stakes was the criteria.
In those races, Jerardi found, the average position of the winner a quarter-mile into the race was 9.5, somewhere between ninth and 10th. Only two of those 23 were first or second a quarter-mile into the race – Go for Gin, who in 1994 was second with a mile to go, and War Emblem, who led from start to finish in his upset victory in 2002.
so we went from the winner being no better than 9th, on avg, at that juncture of the race to the winner being no worse than second (if we chuck the Orb outlier) at the ####### qtr!
the controlling speed these days is frequently a horse with excellent cruising class, able to stay in touch with the front, then having enough to finish the job - provided they didn't wire 'em.
more ...
Over the years, there often has been an overcorrection to the Derby pace based on what transpired the previous year or two. For instance, War Emblem pulled off his upset by going the opening half in 47.04 seconds, with riders seemingly still cognizant of the scorching 2001 pace of 44.86 seconds – a Derby record – that set the race up for Monarchos. Smarty Jones in 2004 stalked an opening half of 46.73 seconds. The following year, the overcorrection resulted in the opening half going in 45.38 seconds, setting the stage for Giacomo’s 50-1 upset.
Medina Spirit went the opening half in 46.70 seconds, Authentic in 46.41. If horses go faster than that in the Derby, it’s often too fast. Yet with positional speed so important now, the high-wire act for a jockey may be getting to a prominent spot without going too fast. That’s been the sweet spot in recent years.
so, this will be the 9th Derby since Orb upset the prevailing numbers ... form is due to break at some time, but i just can't see the connections of the big timber here ####ting their pants because Classic Causeway may rattle off a sub :46 half - we know who will most likely be right on his ###, but we also know cats like Zandy & Mo loom very large if they can attend a bit closer.
all conjecture, sure ... but the proof is in the pudding - if one is playing straight WIN, or looking to economize the top slot of their tix ... well, do you feel like form holds? if so, this really boils down to only a few to seriously consider in that regard.
... or does an upstart like Zozos continue to show his robust pattern of speed upswings, and deliver a huge number?
if one is looking at precedent to hold up top, then one needs to consider who is in the best form heading into this baby - Classic Causeway will undoubtedly lead for the first half, but the only ticket i'll have him on is "who will finish 20th".
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Judge Smails
Footballguy
Really good stuff here - especially about the Arkansas and Florida Derbies. If you can fully toss horses in those 2 races it gets easier. Though Cyber and Barber Road did hit that 86 threshold.otb_lifer said:
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Taiba got his final work in yesterday morning, will ship out with Mess tomorrow.
wasn't a door blower by any stretch - kinda looked like the Admiral's jock kept waiting and looking in his rear view for Van Dyke to get motoring past.
6f in 1:12 & change ... contrast that to Mess, who blew out a 59.6 5f in his last work, and hit that 1:12 on his gallop out.
maybe Tab isn't the greatest morning horse ... but i did see that he had 4 works prior to the SA Derby - so the training sched is a bit quizzical.
starting to feel as if Zandon is gonna slide into that second choice on Battaglia's ml - there are reasonable knocks on Tab, so the Blue Grass winner makes more sense behind Epi.
maybe Tab starts off in the 8-1 range ... which, for straight WIN bettors, is generous enough - i expect him to prolly hit the starting gate no worse than that number.
considering the form of recent scenarios, if i got knocked out from now 'til day after the Derby, and somebody told me the winner wired the field, there's only one i would land on: Messier.
saw one of the DRF guys on the YouTubez (Bernier or Illman or Privan) theorizing that Cox sent the weaker of his two horses (Cyb) to the weaker circuit (Oaklawn/Arky) to secure the bid, while sending his better horse (Zozos) to the deeper Fair Grounds to try and challenge Epi and PoM in the La. Derby - speculation on their part, but Cox is a a shrewd mutha who is starting to rise to elite status - cat knows his horse flesh, and the opinion was strong.
most recent works of Epi/Zandy/Cyb as per Bloodhorse.
Zandy looks really impressive - fit and feisty and ready to go ... and ol' Cyber has been the star of the Churchill works - i cannot fathom tossing him from my tix seeing how well he's drilling on this surface.
btw, Asmussen is 0-23 coming into this Derby ... is Epi gonna be his Super Saver? (pun definitely intended).
wasn't a door blower by any stretch - kinda looked like the Admiral's jock kept waiting and looking in his rear view for Van Dyke to get motoring past.
6f in 1:12 & change ... contrast that to Mess, who blew out a 59.6 5f in his last work, and hit that 1:12 on his gallop out.
maybe Tab isn't the greatest morning horse ... but i did see that he had 4 works prior to the SA Derby - so the training sched is a bit quizzical.
starting to feel as if Zandon is gonna slide into that second choice on Battaglia's ml - there are reasonable knocks on Tab, so the Blue Grass winner makes more sense behind Epi.
maybe Tab starts off in the 8-1 range ... which, for straight WIN bettors, is generous enough - i expect him to prolly hit the starting gate no worse than that number.
considering the form of recent scenarios, if i got knocked out from now 'til day after the Derby, and somebody told me the winner wired the field, there's only one i would land on: Messier.
saw one of the DRF guys on the YouTubez (Bernier or Illman or Privan) theorizing that Cox sent the weaker of his two horses (Cyb) to the weaker circuit (Oaklawn/Arky) to secure the bid, while sending his better horse (Zozos) to the deeper Fair Grounds to try and challenge Epi and PoM in the La. Derby - speculation on their part, but Cox is a a shrewd mutha who is starting to rise to elite status - cat knows his horse flesh, and the opinion was strong.
most recent works of Epi/Zandy/Cyb as per Bloodhorse.
Zandy looks really impressive - fit and feisty and ready to go ... and ol' Cyber has been the star of the Churchill works - i cannot fathom tossing him from my tix seeing how well he's drilling on this surface.
btw, Asmussen is 0-23 coming into this Derby ... is Epi gonna be his Super Saver? (pun definitely intended).
otb_lifer
Footballguy
just caught a 10 minute interview with Brown - he said he'll most likely be sending Early Voting to Preakness ... reading (listening?) between the lines, it seems to me that the re-entry of Classic Causeway sealed the fate - looks like he wants no part of EV having to punch it out with the expected pacesetter.
EV is not running next week.
EV is not running next week.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Zandon just seems to be sitting on a monster. Every comment by Welsch has been that this horse is being held back and is crying out to run. Even then super impressive works. Needs a trip but has to be the key IMO
otb_lifer
Footballguy
the closer we get, the more clarity ... and i just cannot envision a scenario where Mess is not leading this field as we hit the stretch - lest he's buried in the 1 or 2 hole - i think he can mitigate the further outside posts to sit behind CC, but that will obviously tax him a bit more, as the hustle out to that first turn is quick.
Zandy's advantage is that he's not a dead closer ... i view him as a mid pack stalker who just needs the GO! tap, and that's when his race really begins - again, he cannot be buried inside if he is gonna win this thing (no horse really can, for that matter).
looking back at his Remsen battle with Mo (10/21), man, the fractions were glacial (25.1 first qtr), so it's not like the two of 'em were closing into suicidal splits ... they just wound up in a stretch duel because they were far and away the best horses - now, it was a rough battle, and Zandy did pass Mo, but ceded the lead right back - he blinked, and was outdueled.
then the Risen Star, which was such a key prep ... he had some trouble at the start, and made up ground nicely - but just couldn't nip PoM for 2nd - Epi was given the lead from jump, and was never really in doubt.
that's what made the Blue Grass victory so important ... he needed to bag one, the light needed to come on - i have the utmost confidence in Prat navigating the best trip possible, which may not turn out to be a good trip, depending on circumstances beyond their control, but, whatever may happen, i'm sure Prat will get the most out of what they're dealt - that cannot be stressed enough ... the work he did with a much lesser horse (imo) in Country House was some of the best of recent Derby vintage.
Mess will have company turning home, and Epi will be part of it - Zandy has the chops to put both away, yes, and to turn back whatever other stragglers (i hope for Zozos) are in that surviving top flight.
i don't think we get enough pace for Mo to challenge for 1st ... i still love him as an exotic clunk up, but - what if it does all go to ####? can Zandy rurn the tables this go round?
btw ... very early forecast looks like strong possibility of rain on 5/7 - it's gonna be awfully hard to lay off the speed if that plays out.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
How my online book is shaking out atm ...
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2022 Kentucky Derby Odds
Race Events > Kentucky Derby > Odds
| Betting | Future Wager | Odds | Handicapping & Picks | Prep Races | Contenders | Winners | History | Results | Tickets |
Last updated on April 29th, 2022
LIVE Kentucky Derby odds (on TwinSpires.com)
Kentucky Derby LIVE odds (on KentuckyDerby.com)
Wynn Las Vegas Odds
BET CHURCHILL DOWNS LIVE RACING HERE!
2022 Kentucky Derby Fair Odds – updated
Horse NameOdds
Epicenter 6-1
White Abarrio 7-1
Zandon 8-1
Mo Donegal 8-1
Taiba 8-1
Messier 12-1
Simplification 12-1
Smile Happy 12-1
Early Voting 16-1
Charge It 20-1
Cyberknife 20-1
Crown Pride 25-1
Tiz the Bomb 25-1
Barber Road 33-1
Zozos 33-1
Tawny Port 40-1
Summer Is Tomorrow 50-1
Un Ojo 50-1
- White Abby is the biggest overlay by far - i'll back the other 2 Fl. Derby horses before him in a heartbeat.
- if you love Cyber, JOIN THE SITE AND PUT IT DOWN! that's what we call a tempting underlay.
- ditto Mess at 12-1 ... not as severe, obviously, but that's a very fair shake.
- Zandy under White Abby? no friggin' way ... grab that 8-1 now if you can, he's gonna be at least half that come post time.
- Zozos is live on all my tix. a hill i'll die on.
- Charge It is a much better horse, imo, than Simplification ... if i had to wager my last penny on a Florida circuit horse winning this thing, i'd take Charge It in a NY second over the other 2.
- Taiba was put on the Vet's list after SA Derby, had to cancel one work ... looked "OK" in his one work leading up to his ship - he will not work at Churchill, nor will Mess (they arrive Sunday) ... chinks in the armor will push him to a very enticing value consideration - got a feeling lotta 'wiseguys' are gonna start tossing around "toss" for the wünderkind.
SIGN IN
2022 Kentucky Derby Odds
Race Events > Kentucky Derby > Odds
| Betting | Future Wager | Odds | Handicapping & Picks | Prep Races | Contenders | Winners | History | Results | Tickets |
Last updated on April 29th, 2022
LIVE Kentucky Derby odds (on TwinSpires.com)
Kentucky Derby LIVE odds (on KentuckyDerby.com)
Wynn Las Vegas Odds
BET CHURCHILL DOWNS LIVE RACING HERE!
2022 Kentucky Derby Fair Odds – updated
Horse NameOdds
Epicenter 6-1
White Abarrio 7-1
Zandon 8-1
Mo Donegal 8-1
Taiba 8-1
Messier 12-1
Simplification 12-1
Smile Happy 12-1
Early Voting 16-1
Charge It 20-1
Cyberknife 20-1
Crown Pride 25-1
Tiz the Bomb 25-1
Barber Road 33-1
Zozos 33-1
Tawny Port 40-1
Summer Is Tomorrow 50-1
Un Ojo 50-1
- White Abby is the biggest overlay by far - i'll back the other 2 Fl. Derby horses before him in a heartbeat.
- if you love Cyber, JOIN THE SITE AND PUT IT DOWN! that's what we call a tempting underlay.
- ditto Mess at 12-1 ... not as severe, obviously, but that's a very fair shake.
- Zandy under White Abby? no friggin' way ... grab that 8-1 now if you can, he's gonna be at least half that come post time.
- Zozos is live on all my tix. a hill i'll die on.
- Charge It is a much better horse, imo, than Simplification ... if i had to wager my last penny on a Florida circuit horse winning this thing, i'd take Charge It in a NY second over the other 2.
- Taiba was put on the Vet's list after SA Derby, had to cancel one work ... looked "OK" in his one work leading up to his ship - he will not work at Churchill, nor will Mess (they arrive Sunday) ... chinks in the armor will push him to a very enticing value consideration - got a feeling lotta 'wiseguys' are gonna start tossing around "toss" for the wünderkind.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
jumping back to "pace makes the race", and the need for speed which has dominated the last 30 years of this race.
28 of 30 who finished first had at least ONE 95+ BSF on their resumé ... looking at this year's field gives us half the entrants (10 of the 20, with no figs available for Crown Pride) ... Early Voting is one of them, but he's not gonna run - so that leaves 9 ...
From highest to lowest, they are: Messier, Taiba, Epicenter, Zandon, Zozos, White Abarrio, Mo Donegal, Pioneer of Medina, Simplification, Early Voting.
FOR WIN BETTORS ONLY: this is where you need to be looking most closely - 28 outta 30 is more than a trend.
for those of us constructing exotics, all the way down to the super/hi five or playing the Oaks/Derby DD, or any of the other newfangled/traditional horizontals ... hard to ignore this batch for the KD square.
most of these are garnering enough buzz and praise already, but there are also gonna be some nice prices for some of those entrants - constructing verticals, using them on top, well ... if you really wanna spread, and pack your win slot with longer plays as well as savers, there ya go.
we can further extrapolate this by tossing in the Bris #s, for added punch -
19 of the last 22 (86.4 percent) Kentucky Derby winners had a BRIS Speed Rating of at least 100 before the race.
those 9 are: Messier, Taiba, Epicenter, Zandon, Mo Donegal, Simplification, Early Voting, Smile Happy and Tiz the Bomb.
Messier, Taiba, Epicenter, Zandon, Mo Donegal, Simplification and Early Voting as the only horses who fall into both categories.
Early Voting is OUT, so that leaves 6 horses who check both boxes.
form does not necessarily follow function, right? and anything can happen in a 20 horse field ... but, man, for all the talk of 'uncertainty' and 'chaos', those speed numbers are remarkably consistent, moreso than any other raw data point one could point to in any big time wagering endeavor ... there's no such thing as a sure thing (except for the speed numbers).
i have been warming to Mess a ton this week - and i love Johnny V piloting this one from the engine - time to start building tix around this, post draw is gonna be one of the most critical of recent years, because i think the top can be had by a handful, and the possibilities for the verticlals are aplenty.
28 of 30 who finished first had at least ONE 95+ BSF on their resumé ... looking at this year's field gives us half the entrants (10 of the 20, with no figs available for Crown Pride) ... Early Voting is one of them, but he's not gonna run - so that leaves 9 ...
From highest to lowest, they are: Messier, Taiba, Epicenter, Zandon, Zozos, White Abarrio, Mo Donegal, Pioneer of Medina, Simplification, Early Voting.
FOR WIN BETTORS ONLY: this is where you need to be looking most closely - 28 outta 30 is more than a trend.
for those of us constructing exotics, all the way down to the super/hi five or playing the Oaks/Derby DD, or any of the other newfangled/traditional horizontals ... hard to ignore this batch for the KD square.
most of these are garnering enough buzz and praise already, but there are also gonna be some nice prices for some of those entrants - constructing verticals, using them on top, well ... if you really wanna spread, and pack your win slot with longer plays as well as savers, there ya go.
we can further extrapolate this by tossing in the Bris #s, for added punch -
19 of the last 22 (86.4 percent) Kentucky Derby winners had a BRIS Speed Rating of at least 100 before the race.
those 9 are: Messier, Taiba, Epicenter, Zandon, Mo Donegal, Simplification, Early Voting, Smile Happy and Tiz the Bomb.
Messier, Taiba, Epicenter, Zandon, Mo Donegal, Simplification and Early Voting as the only horses who fall into both categories.
Early Voting is OUT, so that leaves 6 horses who check both boxes.
form does not necessarily follow function, right? and anything can happen in a 20 horse field ... but, man, for all the talk of 'uncertainty' and 'chaos', those speed numbers are remarkably consistent, moreso than any other raw data point one could point to in any big time wagering endeavor ... there's no such thing as a sure thing (except for the speed numbers).
i have been warming to Mess a ton this week - and i love Johnny V piloting this one from the engine - time to start building tix around this, post draw is gonna be one of the most critical of recent years, because i think the top can be had by a handful, and the possibilities for the verticlals are aplenty.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
I’m throwing Smile Happy out after his work today. Don’t really like Tiz the Bomb either. Narrows that list.
The teamwork for the Kenny McPeek-trained duo of TIZ THE BOMB and SMILE HAPPY obviously didn’t go quite as planned after the latter dropped about five lengths behind his mate, breaking off at the half-mile pole. Tiz The Bomb maintained a comfortable advantage going easily throughout under Brian Hernandez Jr., with Smile Happy not mustering much of a closing response, making up a length or so to the wire while being nudged a tad by Corey Lanerie in an attempt to bridge the gap. Daily Racing Formhad the leader in 24.13 and 49.03 and out in 1:02.06, as Tiz the Bomb was arguably the more impressive of the pair today.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
when you look at the 6 who appear on both BSF & Bris, it's down to 7: Mess, Tab, Epi, Zandy, Mo, Simp, EV.
toss EV, of course ...
now, if we marry this to the recent spate of front running winners, we chuck Mo & Zandy from the top slot.
of those 2, i cannot see a path for Mo up top - just not his game to attend that early ...
if one has little faith in the front runners this year, then Zandy is the default selection by all metrics - but i would be expecting to see him somewhere around 10th at the 1/2.
re: Tiz - man has this been a busy cat ... dirt, turf, tapeta; Churchill, Ellis, Keeneland, Del Mar, Gulfstream, Turfway ... like they're scrambling for a niche.
his Holy Bull was definitely a bomb - White Abby/Simp/Mo top 3 there, with Tizzy 6th at the 1/4, 7th at the finish. speed figs abysmal, same for his debut, which was at Churchill, btw - finishing 7th.
Churchill opened this weekend ... i played some of the card, they have a gorgeous new turf config (10m renovation) - anyways, Turfway shippers have been respectable in their efforts thus far ... that's not enough for me to consider Tiz winning timber, of course - and his prior dirt form just shows nothing for vertical consideration.
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
So what would you consider a good post for most, 5-15?POST DRAW IS TOMORROW!
WHY, why ... why do i get the sneaking suspicion that Taiba will be scratched if they are dealt a #### post?
... otb, c'mon man - they ain't shipping his ### cross country to sit the big dance OUT!!!
POST DRAW IS TOMORROW
And it's all one starting gate now, right?
otb_lifer
Footballguy
when speaking of scratching, it would have to be #1, possibly #20 ... i just have a bad vibe about him atm.
but, yes ... 5-15 are golden, really hoping to get Mess in that sweet spot - would prefer him slightly outside of CC so he can draft that foo' - but anything from 17-20 is gonna be tough, especially if CC & Zo & SiT are all drawn inside him.
yep, i believe they debuted it last year - call me kooky, call me nutsty - but i loved the ol' Aux gate.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
- another work from Crown Pride this morning that had Welsch raving - really loved how he got down to biz as he hit the stretch.
- Epi turned in a very efficient effort, Welsch praised the workmanlike consistency.
- White Abby popped another stellar work, he thinks he's heading to the Derby in great form.
- Summer is Tomorrow also got a good review (Welsch noted that SiT looked hot & washed last time he saw him, on a cooler day, to boot).
- Epi turned in a very efficient effort, Welsch praised the workmanlike consistency.
- White Abby popped another stellar work, he thinks he's heading to the Derby in great form.
- Summer is Tomorrow also got a good review (Welsch noted that SiT looked hot & washed last time he saw him, on a cooler day, to boot).
otb_lifer
Footballguy
pre-draw wishlist:
- hoping for one of Classic Causeway/White Abarrio/Cyberknife/Charge It/Simplification/Tiz the Bomb/Taiba/Zandy/Epi to draw the 1 hole.
- hoping to get Mess in the 8 or 9 hole ... wouldn't mind anything up to 16 - thinking he might be sent too hard if he draws inside the 5.
- see the above for Zozos, who i am anticipating a huge run from, more on him later today once we shake out.
- Mo D is really the only cat here who i feel doesn't get too compromised by a post ... we've seen late run exotic clunk ups from all over the post draws - his style is not gonna win this race, but he's an underneath must.
- Crown Pride needs to draw honest for vertical consideration.
- let's keep the mules outta the 1 hole ... we were tossing 'em anyway.
- hoping for one of Classic Causeway/White Abarrio/Cyberknife/Charge It/Simplification/Tiz the Bomb/Taiba/Zandy/Epi to draw the 1 hole.
- hoping to get Mess in the 8 or 9 hole ... wouldn't mind anything up to 16 - thinking he might be sent too hard if he draws inside the 5.
- see the above for Zozos, who i am anticipating a huge run from, more on him later today once we shake out.
- Mo D is really the only cat here who i feel doesn't get too compromised by a post ... we've seen late run exotic clunk ups from all over the post draws - his style is not gonna win this race, but he's an underneath must.
- Crown Pride needs to draw honest for vertical consideration.
- let's keep the mules outta the 1 hole ... we were tossing 'em anyway.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Post draw at 2pm EDT. Not sure where it can be viewed.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
>> The draws for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks will be held from 2-3 p.m. Monday at Churchill Downs.
The draws will be televised live by WAVE-3 TV and livestreamed at courier-journal.com and KentuckyDerby.com <<
i would guess their instagram account will also carry the livestream - but all of the content thus far has been of the Johnny Weir variety ... NTTAWWT.
#shouldaknown
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
... aaaaand Un Ojo is OUT
- time for Lukas , Ethereal Road.
sucks to lose Un Ojo ... was an easy toss - Ethereal Road is no great shakes, but i rate him a more dangerous clunk up than ol' One Eye.
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
- just caught Charge It's last work from Saturday 4/30, in tandem with PoM.
man, he (Charge It) is the most physically imposing in the field - a big and strong colt who looks like he can blow the doors off ... this a prime thoroughbred specimen.
was goofy at the lead in, lugging and tugging - but once they got down to biz, he lowered his head and got to some serious running ... busted the 4f in 47.4, with PoM right on his hip - nice outing for both.
he will be on all my tix, and i was warm earlier, but now really heating up - but he's shown goofy tendencies ... e.g. flubbing the Fl. Derby start, which cost him the win - then lugging out in the lane when he had Abby lined up at the finish - but he's a better horse than White Abby, don''t be fooled by that result.
loved what i saw from him on Saturday.
man, he (Charge It) is the most physically imposing in the field - a big and strong colt who looks like he can blow the doors off ... this a prime thoroughbred specimen.
was goofy at the lead in, lugging and tugging - but once they got down to biz, he lowered his head and got to some serious running ... busted the 4f in 47.4, with PoM right on his hip - nice outing for both.
he will be on all my tix, and i was warm earlier, but now really heating up - but he's shown goofy tendencies ... e.g. flubbing the Fl. Derby start, which cost him the win - then lugging out in the lane when he had Abby lined up at the finish - but he's a better horse than White Abby, don''t be fooled by that result.
loved what i saw from him on Saturday.
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