ElGatoLoco
Footballguy
I don't know if you are aware, but I read somplace on FBG that Q bulked up to 202. A guy with low center of gravity at 202 is not giving that much up to a LB at 220.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Tatum Bell to Debut on Friday (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Macdaddy_2004
- Start date
Canuckleheads
Footballguy
:rotflmao: These Tatum Bell threads are so hilarious. I mean for all we've seen Q do in the preseason, all the talk that comes outta Bronco camp, and the total lack of anything positive out of Bell, these guys still believe that Bell will just take the job from Griffin.It's like telling a 4 year old there's no Easter Bunny. You can't argue against a myth. Why try?
Gopher State
Footballguy
This post makes me feel warm and fuzzy all over since I drafted both Q and Bell. 
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
You SURE about that? IIRC, Griffin has a Nat'l Champ ring on his finger while playing in the Big-12. He had a real nice last year for the Sooners with a pretty high YPC and over 15 TDs on 1700+ rushing yards. Care to re-think this statment?
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Anderson mostly through TC - and Hearst for the last few weeks.
mustacheman
Footballguy
What's important is to see how he compares with BELL, not Anderson or Hearst, since Bell is Griffin's main competition/threat to the starting job.I think dismissing Bell because he hasn't had the chance to show what he can do due to a (relatively) minor injury at this point is a huge mistake...this has already been touched on in the numerous Griffin threads, but the problem with valuing Griffin so high (#22 RB as of current projections) is that there is a lot of risk in Griffin finishing the season at that production level. Unless you are drafting Griffin to trade him early on (which may be the smart move), you could be left with nothing if/when Griffin is replaced later in the season. Bell was back taking limited reps and in the film room within a day or two after the surgery on his finger, so he's probably not that far behind mentally and playbook-wise.I still don't think that Griffin's hyped-up performance in training camp and preseason games completely overshadows the fact that he was anything but dominant last year in real action.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
I was asked what competition did he beat out - that was the competition. I actually thought Hearst had a decent chance to win the starting job before training camp, and Anderson was given a coupe shots to run with the first team in TC< but Griffin was better.Yes, operative issue is in comparison with Bell - amd we will see that play out over the next couple of weeks.
Macdaddy_2004
Footballguy
Q still has not gone against Tatum BellQ vs T this FridayStay Tuned
He is? I kinda thought the veteran running back they paid and brought in might have had a shot, especially considering he averaged 4.3 y/c last year.Little tip for you guys so sure whats going to happen because of what happened in the last few years, past performance doesnt guarantee future success. You're cherry picking tendencies you think you know about Shanahan, and ignoring the ones you dont like. What's more likely, that Shanahan picks a guy and sticks with him as long as he can, or that Shanahan just loves playing rookie running backs? The whole notion is absurd, I guarantee Shannys heart was in his throat the first 75 times Gary, Anderson, and Clinton Portis touched the ball.
Last edited by a moderator:
cstu
Footballguy
Yes, he's better than Troy Davis but it's very hard for a guy his size to succeed. That added to the fact Shanahan doesn't need that kind of back in his system inclines me to believe he will give Bell a chance. I have no clue whether can be better than Q, but given the system they run it's makes sense that he's the guy that will ultimately get most of the carries.
skol asylum
Footballguy
5'7"
These Tatum Bell threads are so hilarious. I mean for all we've seen Q do in the preseason, all the talk that comes outta Bronco camp, and the total lack of anything positive out of Bell, these guys still believe that Bell will just take the job from Griffin.
It's like telling a 4 year old there's no Easter Bunny. You can't argue against a myth. Why try?
Englishteacher
Footballguy
Griffin is 5-7 and less than 200 pounds.... the only other prominent RB's I can think of right now in the league that are of a similar size are Westbrook and Dunn. Westbrook's season ended early and Dunn has never carries "the full load" over any of his seasons.... there was a RB who was pretty small and was pretty good, name was Sanders, but I don't think we're talking about a player of that caliber....I expect Griffin to start the season as the starter but that he will be spelled during games by another back(s)....I don't see Q as being the type of back who can handle 20-25 carries again because he doesn't have the shelf life for that....I expect we'll see him spelled in some short yardage situations....all that said, I've been impressed with Q so far... he has nice run skills and ctaches the ball well but he'll get killed if he's made a workhorse....and I do agree Plummer may run the risk of getting killed if Q is consistently asked to block LB's or D LinemanBell is clearly behind in terms of learning the playbook and offense and has had the finger injuryI wouldn't rule out the chance he could emerge as the strarter into the season but he will clearly have to earn it...Hearst is technically sound playin the game, i.e. he knows how to block, catch the football, and knows where to go but I don't see him as having much left in the tank although he could thrive in a Moe Williams type role for the teamobviously Mike Anderson has had success in the system before, is a tough guy to bring down and can block but I don't think Shanny wants to go that route as a starter... otherwise Q wouldn't be 1st string and Bell not taken in the 2nd...however... I'd say Bell IS 4th on the depth chart right nowbut... I think Shanny knows at this point Bell has the most potential of all of them... a good dose of Bell's natural talent in a game or two will help his cause but I don't think he gets the job until he proves to Shanny he can play football the way he wants him to....end of it all.... Q starts to begin the season.... he'll be spelled in some situations by whomever fits the bill best (i.e. Anderson short yardage, Hearst can block...) and someone will have to give him a blow for at least 5-8 touches a game....no way Q logs 350 carries and finishes the season.... Bell could come on with more time...As long as Bell progresses as a player he's the man in 2005 although Q could come on in a Westbrook type role...
cstu
Footballguy
Ok, this is how I look at it...Bell is a better RB for the Broncos system so I think he will end up being the starter by mid-season or so. Given that, if I use one of my last picks on him and have a chance of getting a Broncos starting RB out it then I think I've done well with that pick. He's the only backup RB besides Julius Jones that has a legitimate chance of earning the starting job, as opposed to a lot of the other backups who are waiting for an injury. I'd rather go with the guy who might win the job with talent than a players misfortune. Julius Jones is commanding a premium pick and being drafted in the starting RB range already. If you are looking for what could end up as the SOD, then Bell looks like the guy.
Englishteacher
Footballguy
great screen name Dude Where's my RB!
:rotflmao:
skol asylum
Footballguy
I like it. If you look real close you can see Ricky Williams smoking a fattie in the background in the bonfire scene.
Will somebody please tell Griffin that what he is currently doing is impossible? Presumably he will then look downwards and see he is running in mid-air, and of course fall. All your guys points are great... except that they are disproven by that little wild card that screws up so many fantasy gurus: what is actually happening.
Funkley
Collar: Up
The Broncos drafted Bell in the 2nd rnd while Griffin was on the roster. That should tell you something right there. Bell was drafted to be the starter and only the finger injury prevented him from taking over. Both players were studs in college, similar size but Bell is a little bigger and a better receiver. Griffin's starting job hangs by a very thin thread. Jump on Bell if you still can.
Last edited by a moderator:
Yeah, that's great. Griffin is going to get his 1200 yds rushing, 3 TDs, and DEN will average 16 ppg and end up 5-11.It's a matter of looking at the big picture. Griffin is too inconsistent. He'll give you a 10-20 yd run once every 10 plays, but he'll also give you 5 to 6 -2 to 2 yd runs in those 10 plays. Plummer isn't a strong enough QB to be put in those 2nd & long and 3rd & long situations that often and keep the offense moving.
If DEN had a stronger QB it could withstand Griffin's shortcomings (pun intended) - not being able to move the pile when a play blows up & not being able to create for himself. If Griffin could turn an occassional 15 yd run into a 50 yd homerun then his shortcomings might also be more palateable. But DEN is married to Plummer right now, and there is no way around that. That means that DEN needs a more consistent RB - he doesn't have to be flashy, but he does need to get a regular 3-4 yds on 1st & 2nd down. Either that, or they need to have a RB who can actually take a play to the house every once in a while. Griffin does not qualify for being the aforementioned RB.
So while Griffin might - might - qualify for being a capable NFL RB, he doesn't fit DEN's requirements at RB. Hearst does that better, but he doesn't seem to be able to stay healthy recently. Anderson fits the requirements better. He may not give you the homerun, but he'll move the pile and get tough yards. Bell? We don't know yet. But I see a short stay for Griffin at the starting RB spot, especially with DEN catching 3 top run Ds - JAX, CAR, & TB and the high octane KC O that DEN will have to keep off the field by sustaining prolonged drives in 4 of their first 5 games.
DEN will have to be able to move the chains regularly in those 4 games, or they have a very real possibility of starting the season 2-3 or 1-4. That isn't going to work, even if Griffin is getting some reasonable FF production. And as for what will actually happen - Shanahan could give a rat's #### about FF production - he cares about winning. Period. And I don't know if DEN can win with a Griffin type RB in the backfield.
Irish
Footballguy
I agree that Denver offense this year is not all that great. Also remember back when Barry Sanders retired the buzz around the Lions was that now the offense won't be playing 2nd or 3rd and longs. Only I haven't seen Griffin display Sanders' ability to break off the long runs for touchdowns. I see a rbbc in Denver this year, unless Bell showcases himself to be the every down back in the latter part of the season.
You can't "tell" very well.Bell was drafted in the 2nd round - correctwhile Griffin was on the roster - correctBell was drafted to be the starter - question markonly the finger injury prevented him from taking over - question markboth players were studs in college - correctBell is a little bigger - correctBell is a better receiver - wrongGriffin's starting job hangs by a very thin thread - correct5 correct2 yet to be determined1 wrong
Dolfan
Footballguy
Okay, you're crazyCall me crazy, but could Skeletor be setting up a RBBC?
Apologies if I missed this somewhere, but does anyone have a good feel for how long Bell is expected to play tonight and at what point in the game he will be brought in???Is the game on ESPN or something, or only on local TV??Rocky Mountain News this morning said that Griffin will get a lot of reps with the first team O and that Shanahan wants to get Hearst some work since he has missed due to injury tweaks. The first team O will probably play the first half. That makes it sound like Bell won't get too much, probably 4th Q, I'm guessing (plus I think if Hearst is healthy, Shanahan may audition him this week like he did Anderson last week).I would expect to see a lot of Bell next week when the starters are only getting a series or two.Okay, you're crazyCall me crazy, but could Skeletor be setting up a RBBC?
You just described every running back in the league short of Priest Holmes on a good day. Shall i put up LT2s game logs? Thats how the NFL works, except that bad running backs dont get the 10-20+ yard runs.You're right that Denvers offense has problems, but Griffin is the only good thing they have going and your suggesting he's the one that gets the axe? Not Plummer throwing ints left and right, the WRs dropping balls, or the O-line letting defenders into the backfield? You are making the huge assumption that someone on that roster is going to be an improvement over the solid work Griffin is putting up when you have zero evidence for that. Whats worse, Griffin getting stuffed or some rookie coughing up the ball, or missing a block and getting Plummer creamed? There is a reason rookie running backs give coaches the shakes.
Funkley
Collar: Up
Griffin's not a rookie but he's awful close after missing most of last year. I really like Griffin, I just don't see him holding up to 20 carries a game at 5' 7". That's why I think Denver might use more backs this year. If I had to bet on one guy being the guy by mid-season it would be Bell. JMO.
Last edited by a moderator:
No, I didn't describe every RB in the league. Good RBs take a 1 yd run and turn it into a 3 yd run with good lean & power. Good RBs take a 15 yd jailbreak & turn it into a 40 yd gainer. Griffin does neither.I know you love Griffin, and I know you have overall stats so far this preseason on your side. But so do I. The 1st string O for DEN has put up exactly 4 FGs in 11 series so far, no more, and with no missed FGs - and Plummer & the WRs played pretty well last game, in their first extended duty. Not spectacular, but certainly better than adequate. They still only scored 2 FGs in 6 series. And the D has been setting the O's table. The D has played amazingly well - they've brickwalled the other team's O while the DEN 1st string O has been in.
That's ain't gonna work in DEN, regardless of whether Griffin can improve his career 3.7 ypc to 4.0 ypc or not.
Say what you want about the DEN QB & WRs, but DEN is stuck with them and has no relief in sight. The only place where they have any chance of changing the O is at RB, where they have lots of options. I still don't think Griffin's type of production fits the DEN O.
Last edited by a moderator:
Frank Black
Footballguy
I have my 4th round pick, after the current guy pics, coming up in an AntSports trophy league in a matter of hours. Q will probably still be on the board. This debate is worth me using all the 12 hour clock for my pick, to see how Q & T perform tonight. For all I know, the guy right in front of me may be thinking the same thing.
i dont love Griffin, i do get frustrated with how groupthink infects these boards.'Short running backs get hurt more.' Well, small running backs get hurt more, but thats not the same thing. Griffin has a low center of gravity and is built similar to Barry Sanders.
'Bell is earmarked to overtake Griffin', everything that has come out of Shanahan, the coordinators, and the teammates mouths says exactly the opposite. They love Griffin, love him. Bell is in the doghouse, fumbled in college, and has a broken finger. None of those things point to him playing this year much.
'Griffin gets stuffed to much' Griffin is playing behind a line that is not the same one Portis and the rest played behind, they are noticeably degraded. Early I posted Portis's preason runs and they were almost identical to Griffins carry by carry. Good running backs get stuffed for losses. All the time. Great ones do it less, but watch every potential #2 running back in the league with the same critical eye and you'll see the same thing. Running backs get stuffed.
'Its Griffins fault the O is struggling' I also posted how many times Plummer has thrown incompletions on 1st down this preason, and its been more than Q has carried the ball. Plummer has thrown 3 ints in less than 3 halves of football.
Plummer is not helping the running game out, but Griffin is absolutely loosening up the passing game because he is the only one that has been at all effective out there.
I'm not a Griffin mark, you guys are just absolutely ignoring reality. Try _listening_ instead of assuming. The Broncos are convinced this guy is their guy, no matter how much you want to believe differently.
LOL. It's a real mess, isn't it?I guess I don't haved the stomach for all this when it comes to my #2 RB. If I have to draft a #3 RB fairly high because I can't depend on my #2 RB, then I end up missing out on some great WR talent.I watched Griffin go in the late 3rd/4th in Delta 20 & Delta 50 as a #2 RB. That exceeds my tolerance of risk in a FF draft, and I consider myself somewhat of a risk taker. Instead, I was able to pick up Bell 45-50 picks later in both leagues, and as far as I can tell, I've got a guy with a reasonable chance of being the week 6 starter. Bell may end up being a bench warmer, but at least he isn't being relied upon for the bulk of my starting RB pts. With the mish-mash at RB in DEN, I don't want to rely on any of the RBs for a bulk of the my starting FF RB pts.
2003LT 74 Ephraim Salaam 71 Blake Brockermeyer 69 PJ Alexander
LG 50 Ben Hamilton 79 Steve Herndon
C 66 Tom Nalen
RG 62 Dan Neil 65 Cooper Carlisle
RT 78 Matt Lepsis 72 George Foster
2004
LT 78 LEPSIS Matt F97 77 CARSWELL Dwayne F94
LG 50 Hamilton Ben 01/4 69 Alexander PJ P/NO
C 66 NALEN Tom 94/7 67 Watton Chris F02
RG 62 NEIL Dan 97/3 65 Carlisle Cooper 00/4
RT 72 Foster George 03/1 74 Green Cornell U/TB
*********************************************************
By all accounts so far, Foster is a better OT than Salaam. Where do you see the noticeable downgrade?
Todays lesson is the passage of time. Time passes, end of lesson.Matt Lepsis 30Dan Neil 31Tom Nalen 33Foster is a rookie and they lost Alex Gibbs. Watch these guys and tell me they are the same line they were even a year or two ago. Its not just RBs that falter after 30. Its not a contraversial or novel statement that this line isnt as dominate as it has been. Not a bad line bb any means, but not what they were.
I just had to verify this, so I went back through last year's preseason games and then this year's. Portis had no carries in week 4 last preseason, so here are the links:PreS 2003 Week 1
PreS 2003 Week 2
PreS 2003 Week 3
PreS 2003 Week 4
PreS 2004 HoF
PreS 2004 Week 1
PreS 2004 Week 2
Portis
Week 1
3,3,3,9,3,2
week 2
3,9,5,0,3,2,2,4
week 3
9,5,10,-7,0,6,3,5,5,5,3,2,3
Griffin
HoF
-1,0,27,16,0,3,1
week 1
4,0,8,12,3,-4,7,2,12
week 2
2,10,1,5,0,3,3,1,1,3,10,1,18,1,-1
Comparison
Portis
27 carries, 100 yds
2 or less yds: 7 - 26%
3-5 yds: 15 - 56%
6-9 yds: 4 - 15%
10+ yds: 1 - 4%
Griffin
31 carries, 137 yds
2 or less yds: 14 - 45%
3-5 yds: 7 - 23%
6-9 yds: 2 - 6%
10+ yds: 5 - 16%
***************************************************
Now, this is exactly what I have been saying. Portis (and good backs) find a way to turn 1 yd carries into 3 yd carries. Portis' highest percentage of carries by a wide margin were of the 3-5 yd variety. Griffin's highest percentage of carries by a wide percentage are for 2 yds or less.
DEN 2003 preseason 1st team
9 series, 2 TD, 3 FGs, 1 blocked FG, 1 TO
DEN 2004 preseason 1st team
11 series, 0 TDs, 4 FGs, 0 blocked FGs, 3 TOs
Big difference in placing the offense in an advantageous situation on 2nd & 3rd down. And a big difference in increasing the odds of keeping drives going. Please don't say that Griffin's production is very similar to Portis'. It isn't. It's more prolific, but it is less condusive to the operation of a scoring offense.
Last edited by a moderator:
Macdaddy_2004
Footballguy
Good Point PonyIf the 1st Team isn't clicking with Q in thereWhy not throw in Tatum and see what happens2nd and 6 is way different to 2nd and 9and 3rd and 1 is way different to 3rd and 7Griffin better become more consistent soon or Shanny will sniff this out.Hell we sniffed this out!!!! 
Not sure which side of the fence I'm on, but thanks for looking this up posting it and breaking it down..Macdaddy_2004
Footballguy
All the Q fans are doing this 
Admittedly, I looked at Portis performance so far this year. Theres no way to compare apples to apples with different teams across different year so your analysis is as valid as my analysis of Portis at Washington which follows:Game 11-10-WAS26 (14:55) C.Portis right end to WAS 26 for no gain (D.Morgan). 3-11-WAS1 (9:49) C.Portis left end to WAS 10 for 9 yards (D.Foster, W.Witherspoon). 1-10-WAS21 (4:48) C.Portis left end to WAS 23 for 2 yards (D.Morgan; W.Witherspoon). 1-10-WAS28 (3:58) C.Portis right guard to WAS 29 for 1 yard (K.Jenkins). 1-10-CAR31
42) C.Portis right guard to CAR 29 for 2 yards (M.Rucker). Game 21-10-MIA40 (9:18) C.Portis right tackle to MIA 40 for no gain (D.Bowens). 1-10-MIA40 (9:18) C.Portis right tackle to MIA 40 for no gain (D.Bowens). 2-10-MIA40 (8:46) C.Portis left end to MIA 18 for 22 yards (A.Edwards). 1-10-MIA18 (8:04) C.Portis right guard to MIA 14 for 4 yards (D.Bowens). 2-6-MIA14 (7:25) C.Portis right end to MIA 5 for 9 yards (A.Edwards; R.Howard). 1-5-MIA5 (6:44) C.Portis up the middle to MIA 5 for no gain (M.Greenwood; J.Seau). 2-2-MIA2 (5:35) C.Portis left guard to MIA 1 for 1 yard (L.Chester). 3-1-MIA1 (4:56) C.Portis up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. 0,9,2,1,2,0,0,22,4,9,5,1,tdI'll throw out the 1 yard TD for statistical purposes (it could have gone 50 yards who knows).Portis 200412 carries for 53 yards2 yards or less 7/12 58.33%3-5 yards 2/12 16.6%6-9 yards 2/12 16.6%10+ yards 1/12 8.3%Small sample size, but Griffins is relatively small as well. You also havent addressed how incompletions on first down have killed Denver. 2nd and 10 is worse than 2nd and 9.Similar threads
