Auction strategy articles? (1 Viewer)

Any suggestions for articles or good threads for auction strategy?

Any idea if Maurice Tremblay will be updating his article on Auction Pricing, that is available in DD Help? It seems to be based on data from 2002-2005, so I presume the article is 3 years old.

I know Dodds comes out with a Perfect Draft for auctions, which I am eagerly looking forward to in a couple weeks. I can read his previous versions in the archive. Does anyone else contribute auction strategy articles?

Terpfan said:

Any suggestions for articles or good threads for auction strategy?Any idea if Maurice Tremblay will be updating his article on Auction Pricing, that is available in DD Help? It seems to be based on data from 2002-2005, so I presume the article is 3 years old.I know Dodds comes out with a Perfect Draft for auctions, which I am eagerly looking forward to in a couple weeks. I can read his previous versions in the archive. Does anyone else contribute auction strategy articles?

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There is this guys here "MamboMambo" who has done awesome work with Auction Analysis set up for your team. Search MamboMambo.

Two or three tips I consider to be amongst the most important, and that you might not find as frequently in an article devoted to how to calculate auction prices, for example.

1. If you are new to auctions, go out and do a few before your auction that matters. The experience of going through it is very worthwhile. I'd even suggest doing more than one, and try doing things differently like overspending early, or hanging onto your money too late until there are few guys at a position left worth having. In particular pay attention to how the end of the auction goes when people only have a few units over the minimum bid, and how to push other people around and get the players you want. It's also good to get a feeling for just how much money you need to save for the end to be able to do this, so you don't end up with money you didn't spend.

2. Realize that you come out ahead by finding better value in your players, starts especially, than other teams. Sometimes other teams are overpaying from what you think the players should go for. Especially at RB. If so, you likely will have to overpay too, or risk not having capable starters. The key in this situation is to overpay less than everyone else is. Then you'll still have more money to make the other teams pay when they try to fill out their lineups with less money than those players are worth.

3. If you overspend early and become one of the lower teams in remaining cap room, the best thing to do is to stop spending. If you aren't getting an absolutely super bargain, just wait. After awhile other teams money will come down and you'll be back in a position of being able to control the action. I learned this watching Dodds in a Survivor auction. We stuck him with a high price player he didn't need when he was bidding others up, but he just stopped spending on anything but a great deal until the rest of the league's cap room had dropped, and he controlled the auction at the end and got most of the players he seemed to want.

Does anyone put out a good cheatsheet of Auction values for a dynasty league initial draft? I've seen cheetsheets with auction values for redraft leagues and dynasty rankings for normal drafts, but I can't seem to find a set of dynasty auction values. Just looking for a baseline to get started and then I'll adjust the values up/down based on any differences in scoring/personal preferences, etc.

Ysatnaf_Gnik said:

Terpfan said:

Any suggestions for articles or good threads for auction strategy?Any idea if Maurice Tremblay will be updating his article on Auction Pricing, that is available in DD Help? It seems to be based on data from 2002-2005, so I presume the article is 3 years old.I know Dodds comes out with a Perfect Draft for auctions, which I am eagerly looking forward to in a couple weeks. I can read his previous versions in the archive. Does anyone else contribute auction strategy articles?

Click to expand...

There is this guys here "MamboMambo" who has done awesome work with Auction Analysis set up for your team. Search MamboMambo.

Click to expand...

MamboMambo has an excellent method for determining where to optimally spend your money, assuming that your projections and prices are correct. He runs an optimization using Evolver that maximizes total points per $$ spent. Caveat emptor, the assumptions about projected points and prices are big ones, but it does a very good job of showing you the best approaches if you run it with different scenarios around these assumptions.

I think The Audible is doing a special auction show this year. So keep on the lookout for that. Check the Shark Pool on Thursday morning and you can get your league-specific question in.

Cheers,

CA

The most important thing about auctions is to stay flexible. I have been involved with auction drafts for over 10 years now. Like some players but don't fall in love with them. If some player is going for less than what you have them projected for then take them. They will help your team with great value. If players are going for too much money sit back and wait. I have consistently had teams that had no "round1 or round2" talent but have been filled with round 3 talent because owners overspend on the big name talent. I have heard people on this message board say you need to approach the auction draft similar to a snake draft 1 1st round player, 1 2nd round player and so forth. That is quite posible the biggest mistake that an owner could make. Your focus should not be on drafting rounds of talent but on drafting talent at a great value.

I also think it's critically important to "track" overall league spending as the auction progresses. If your cheat sheet is properly set up, then players going for a lot more than what you're willing to spend will mean that other players will likely go for much less.

In past auctions, I've watched players go off the board for a ton more than what I willing to pay. By holding off, I was able to get a couple RB2's for as much as 50% of what I was willing to pay. This of course was in an inexperienced league.

Conversely, I was burned in the very same league attempting to do the same thing this year. Players were going for more than I was willing to pay, but only by a little. In the end, the values I were expecting never came, and I wound up passing on so many players that I wound up with a poor roster. Refusing to pay $15 for a guy you think is worth $14 can wind up hurting you.

It's also important to keep track of other team's needs. Kurt Warner was the last of a certain tier of QB's remaining in my last auction. Every team but one had a starter. Those keeping track were able to bid Warner up $5-6 above what they would have otherwise paid.

cliffhuxtible said:

Conversely, I was burned in the very same league attempting to do the same thing this year. Players were going for more than I was willing to pay, but only by a little. In the end, the values I were expecting never came, and I wound up passing on so many players that I wound up with a poor roster. Refusing to pay $15 for a guy you think is worth $14 can wind up hurting you.

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Same thing happened to me. Everyone was overpaying my cheatsheet values, so I held off. Then towards the end, the 2 or 3 teams with the most money left were seriously overpaying the few top players left. Luckily, some of my sleeper picks came through as well as some nice free agent pick-ups.

P&J said:

The most important thing about auctions is to stay flexible. Like some players but don't fall in love with them.

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exactly, guaranteed you will probably not get the majority of guys you were targeting anyway and I have been in drafts where things went TOTALLY out of whack from my thinking - some guys I wanted went way higher than I thought so it wasn't easy but I had to "let go" and think of plan B. being stubborn about buying a guy no matter how high the bidding goes can wreck your team. and almost every draft I get at least 1 or 2 guys a lot cheaper than I counted on and though d'oh why was I holding back earlier......

cliffhuxtible said:

I also think it's critically important to "track" overall league spending as the auction progresses.

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I think that's a good idea IF you can do it. our drafts go way too fast and it's all I can do to track my own dollars also, in the early/mid rounds, throw out guys you DON'T want. that way someone spends money on someone you didn't want anyway and their ability to compete w/you for other players is now weakened, both because they have less $ and because they have another slot filled but as drafts get late and people don't have much money, go for the guy you want - you might get him for that $1-2 bid. also be careful purposedly bidding up on a player you know someone else wants esp if you don't - they might stop before you expected and you're stuck with him.

I think it's O.K. to fall in love with certain players at times. You can justify spending more on one of these guys if you have a backup plan or two. Last year I really wanted Megatron and thought I could get him for the going rate or maybe a little less. Of course a bidding war broke out between another owner and myself and I ended up spending too much. I had originally planned on getting him and having enough money to get a decent RB3. Instead I had to decide if there were enough cheaper RBs that I would be satisfied with - and be able to get - so I could spend the extra money. In my mind there were so I ponied up the extra coin and it worked out. The best part of an auction is the fact that you can put at least a few guys that you want on your team even if it means overspending.

I'm not saying never overpay. in fact that's something else that is a common fallacy in auction drafts, this "never go past your max from your cheatsheet" BS. if you really want a guy and have to pay a little extra, wtf do it, you can probably make it up later in the draft by getting a guy cheaper than you expected. it's just tricky to know where to draw the line.

brutha said:

P&J said:

The most important thing about auctions is to stay flexible. Like some players but don't fall in love with them.

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exactly, guaranteed you will probably not get the majority of guys you were targeting anyway and I have been in drafts where things went TOTALLY out of whack from my thinking - some guys I wanted went way higher than I thought so it wasn't easy but I had to "let go" and think of plan B. being stubborn about buying a guy no matter how high the bidding goes can wreck your team. and almost every draft I get at least 1 or 2 guys a lot cheaper than I counted on and though d'oh why was I holding back earlier......

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If by flexible you mean be willing to go for similar players in the same or adjacent tiers, we are in full agreement. If you are saying hold on until the value shows up later once everyone has overpaid, then I disagree. This is a common strategy issue I see, waiting for value players "on sale" or hoarding money in hopes of being able to nab lots of good mid-tier players. These approaches may get you on the edge of the playoffs each year, but they rarely win championships. Instead, you need to go in with a plan of what tiers you want to be in for various positions, and overspend some for the starters if necessary knowing that the backups will be cheaper later on. No, not everything works out the way you want, but you should know where you are willing to move down in quality and price first.

Each year, I jot down about 20 or so players that will be on my roster. I have a value in my head of each player. This value will vary based on when the player is brought up. If a player I like a LOT is brought up when a ton of money is still available and few positions have been filled on any rosters, I'll simply bid him up leaving someone with a higher salary number than he expected...on to the next player on my list.

It is very dangerous when you get late in the draft and the "sleeper" player is still out there. Several teams will have their eye on the same player and each will have just enough cash to make this a potentially fatal error for one team.

I have been involved in this scenario more times than I care to admit. This is where liking a lot of players vs falling in love with 1-2 is key. Liking a bunch of players, as long as they still have value, gives you the flexibility to manage your cap and fielding a strong roster.

Big key that seems to be overlooked, please spend your money. If you leave money at the draft table, that is money that should have been used to upgrade one ore more of your players. You will look at your roster and tell yourself, "if I only bid one more dollar for XXXXX". don't say "what if" at the end.

stickboy said:

brutha said:

P&J said:

The most important thing about auctions is to stay flexible. Like some players but don't fall in love with them.

Click to expand...

exactly, guaranteed you will probably not get the majority of guys you were targeting anyway and I have been in drafts where things went TOTALLY out of whack from my thinking - some guys I wanted went way higher than I thought so it wasn't easy but I had to "let go" and think of plan B. being stubborn about buying a guy no matter how high the bidding goes can wreck your team. and almost every draft I get at least 1 or 2 guys a lot cheaper than I counted on and though d'oh why was I holding back earlier......

Click to expand...

If by flexible you mean be willing to go for similar players in the same or adjacent tiers, we are in full agreement. If you are saying hold on until the value shows up later once everyone has overpaid, then I disagree. This is a common strategy issue I see, waiting for value players "on sale" or hoarding money in hopes of being able to nab lots of good mid-tier players. These approaches may get you on the edge of the playoffs each year, but they rarely win championships. Instead, you need to go in with a plan of what tiers you want to be in for various positions, and overspend some for the starters if necessary knowing that the backups will be cheaper later on. No, not everything works out the way you want, but you should know where you are willing to move down in quality and price first.

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Yeah, you can't confuse "value" with "production." A team made up entirely of 4th-tier guys at great values isn't going to win anything.

stickboy said:

brutha said:

P&J said:

The most important thing about auctions is to stay flexible. Like some players but don't fall in love with them.

Click to expand...

exactly, guaranteed you will probably not get the majority of guys you were targeting anyway and I have been in drafts where things went TOTALLY out of whack from my thinking - some guys I wanted went way higher than I thought so it wasn't easy but I had to "let go" and think of plan B. being stubborn about buying a guy no matter how high the bidding goes can wreck your team. and almost every draft I get at least 1 or 2 guys a lot cheaper than I counted on and though d'oh why was I holding back earlier......

Click to expand...

If by flexible you mean be willing to go for similar players in the same or adjacent tiers, we are in full agreement. If you are saying hold on until the value shows up later once everyone has overpaid, then I disagree. This is a common strategy issue I see, waiting for value players "on sale" or hoarding money in hopes of being able to nab lots of good mid-tier players. These approaches may get you on the edge of the playoffs each year, but they rarely win championships. Instead, you need to go in with a plan of what tiers you want to be in for various positions, and overspend some for the starters if necessary knowing that the backups will be cheaper later on. No, not everything works out the way you want, but you should know where you are willing to move down in quality and price first.

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I am saying neither necessarily, just be flexible in general.as for holding money back vs not, it's a question of degree with no pat "right" answer, and same goes for aggressively going for top players and filling w/scrubs later or easing off and going for depth. no right or wrong way and I have seen both plans succeed and fail many times. DC excellent call and agree, try to make sure and spend that money! that is the danger of holding back TOO much - although sometimes it's hard to say where to draw that line.it's all fun though and much more interesting than snake drafts!

Yeah, you can't confuse "value" with "production." A team made up entirely of 4th-tier guys at great values isn't going to win anything.

I see many owners that play this card as well. They will think the prices are simply too high on ALL players (not possible BTW) and fail to get a top tier player...DO NOT FALL INTO THIS PATTERN!!!!!! You may be surprised how far $1 will go. It could mean the difference between a quality value RB1 like Frank Gore or having three or four maybe's like a Kevin Smith etc. Remember, you can only start 2 RB's (based on league rules), while those RB3's and RB's make your roster look good, you can only start 2 of them.

Captain Hook said:

"The POWER of $2"

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The power of one additional dollar.

I've played in 2 different leagues with auction drafts each of the last 6 or 7 years, and every year things are different. Some years it seems like there are a lot of bargains at the beginning of the auction, some years the bargains come at the end of the auction, some years there are only a handful of bargain players spread sporatically throughout the auction. Some years RBs are overpriced, some years its the QBs, others its the WRs. Sometimes the last player taken in the top tier is the cheapest of the group, while sometimes it's the first player taken in the top tier.

I believe the reason for this is that everyone in the league is learning from prior auctions, and we all seem make the same adjustments next year. Do NOT ASSUME the other managers will act the same way from year to year.

Steps to Successful Bidding:

1 Value your players BEFORE the auction begins.

2 Study your player values BEFORE the auction begins.

3(A) Identify players that seem UNDERVALUED based on ADP and historical positional bidding

3(B) Identify players that seem OVERVALUED based on ADP and historical positional bidding

4(A) Create a money allocation strategy BEFORE the auction begins.

4(B)(1) The strategy should include:

4(B)(2) An allocation of money between positions

4(B)(3) An allocation of money between starters and reserves

5(A) Create Plan A BEFORE the auction begins.

5(B)(1) Plan A includes a top 10 (or 12) QB, 2 top 10 RBs and 2 top 10 WRs.

5(B)(2) Most, but not all, Plan A players will be players you project to be UNDERVALUED.

5(B)(3) Plan A should cost about $200 if you have a total budget of $200.

5(B)(4) Obviously you will not be able to afford all 5 Plan A players, that's why we have Plan B.

6(A) Create Plan B BEFORE the auction begins.

6(B)(1) Plan B includes a CHEAPER top 6-18 QB, 2 top 10-24 RBs and 2 top 10-24 WRs.

6(B)(2) All Plan B players will be players you project to be UNDERVALUED.

6(B)(3) Only pursue Plan B players under the following circumstances:

6(B)(4)(a) One or more of the Plan A players were $2+ more expensive than you anticipated.

6(B)(4)(b) You got a few (or most) of your Plan A players, but are starting to run out of money.

7 Review everything one last time.

8(A) Go to your auction.

8(B) Nominate a Plan A player with your first nomination. (Sometimes guys are tenative the first 5-10 minutes.)

8© Nominate projected OVERVALUED players for the next hour or two.

8(D) Anytime someone nominates your Plan A players, bid on them until you get them or they reach your predetermined stopping point.

8(E) You NEED to get at least 3 of your Plan A players.

8(F) After all of the Plan A players are gone, bid on any Plan B players that you need.

8(G) You shouldn't have much money left to fill out the rest of your team after you've landed your top 5 players.

8(H) Get the best $1 or $2 players you can the rest of the way (including your handcuffs).

8(I) Don't sweat it when someone spends $4 on a $12 player after you're out of cash, your top 5 players are better than his.

There is no such thing as the Perfect Auction. There will always be a few players that you wish you had purchased if you had only known ahead of time what all of the players would end up costing. Don't sweat it. If you get 3 or 4 Plan A players, 1 or 2 Plan B players, you should have one of the top 3 teams in the league. Don't waste time planning on who to buy for $1 or $2, THAT is a total waste of time. If you're like me you will have replaced most of your scrubs with WW players by week 2.

Some great advice here!! I was in my first auction keeper league last year and it was great. I got some great advice from the forums here and had a great draft. I do agree that it is good to wait for value but you can't let big names just slip buy because they are going for a few dollars more than you were willing to pay for. I headed into my draft last year with a few big names that I was willing to overpay for. If I overpaid for them I would adjust and try to get value in other places. Keep in mind that players that you think will be undervalued, most others in your league will think the same. I am wondering if there is any tools out there that you can input your league settings etc and it will output dollar values as well as percentages that you should spend on each position, that would be great...

Cabby,

The VBD Application will do that. However, I use my own spreadsheet based off of Trembley's article on auction values 3 or 4 years ago.

I would love to hear SOMETHING about auction values in the podcasts.... i know that would be difficult with all the league money settings but i don't feel that saying "wait for this guy until the 5th round" translates into a $$ value

If they would have a standard of $100 team salary or another number that is simply to apply to our own league that would help out.......

Ive done the VBD app and plugged in my numbers and try to translate those figures into tiers....

I'm highjacking this thread.

Since there are only a few auction articles out there (on this site and elsewhere), let's have a discussion of your auction strategies.

Has anyone used the VBD auction values with success? (I think it undervalues top players, and overvalues mid-tier players.)

Has anyone used the Trembley's auction values formulas with success? (This is what I use every year.)

What have you tried that seemed like a great idea going into the auction that had disasterous results?

What bidding strategy worked one year, but not the next?

What works well every year?

What is your master plan headed into this year's auction?

I've given my master plan about 5 posts above this one. I'd like to know what other experienced bidders are doing...

There was another pretty good thread about Auction Strategy from about 1-2 weeks ago. I cobbled together a bunch of advice from that thread (and Snot's from above), plus a bunch from some other Strategy Articles (some referenced in the doc with links).

If I can get that doc cleaned up, I will post its contents here. The biggest problem in merging all that data is that some of it somewhat contradicts, since it's opinions. There are still lots of morsels of info to take from it.

Also, I think there is a difference between Auction Planning (how you do tiering, cheatsheets, AAVs) and Strategy/Budgeting. There also seems to be a category of "Draft Hints" (what to do during the draft) and "What to Expect When Drafting". I am trying to break my document into those groupings.