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Dodds Ranking Of Garrard (1 Viewer)

K

kyoun1e

Footballguy
I'm shocked this week to find Garrard (my #2 QB) higher than M. Schaub (my #1 QB) by Dodds. We're talking significantly higher here in both the overall projections and custom projections.

The last time I benched Schaub for Garrard (in week 2), Schaub threw for four TDs.

I see four factors at play here driving Garrard up and Schaub down:

1. JAX matchup vs. KC. A good one.

2. JAX at home where they seem to play like world-beaters (vs like jackasses on the road).

3. Schaub just lost Daniels.

4. Schaub faces Indy secondary in Indy.

All legit reasons, but after last week, who has the...nerve...to start Garrard over the likes of Schaub this week?

Based on Garrard's inconsistency, how on earth can Dodd's really rank Garrard this high?

KY

 
There is absolutely no way I would start Garrard over Schaub this week. Dodds seems to have some serious man love for Garrard.

 
KC has enough offense and lack of pass defense to make this a serious shootout. Garrard has potential for 3 to 4 TDs, so depends if you feel Shaub can do that without Daniels and possibly Slaton.

 
Looking at Garrard's inconsistency a bit more, it would appear that his inconsistency is actually...consistent.

In my scoring system, here's his total fantasy points scored, away vs home:

AWAY

@Indy: 7

@Hou: 19

@Sea: 6

@TN: 5

HOME

vs AZ: 25

vs TN: 36

vs STL: 18

I just wonder if this is just coincidence vs anything meaningful.

KY

 
I doubt I'd start him over Schaub either, but Garrard has been a totally different QB at home than on the road this season. One could argue that's because his home opponents have been less than stellar(AZ aside), but it's not like the Chiefs are remotely any great shakes. The trend may continue. He's thrown all of his TDs at home so far, IIRC.

I don't think it's completely far-fetched to believe he may outproduce Schaub this week, considering Schaub's matchup. (Again, I doubt I'd be starting him over Matt.)

 
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Quite sure that Dodds' 1st rankings are formula driven. As the week goes on, he starts factoring in player injuries, and common sense.

He's said he feels much more comfortable with his rankings on Friday than Wednesday.

 
Kitrick Taylor said:
Quite sure that Dodds' 1st rankings are formula driven. As the week goes on, he starts factoring in player injuries, and common sense. He's said he feels much more comfortable with his rankings on Friday than Wednesday.
Click to expand...
No doubt that Friday would be based upon more info and he would feel more comfortable but I doubt it changes much. Typically things are tweaked rather than wholesale changes of opinion. Dodds is going by the book and for whatever reason the book doesn't factor in what a complete turd Garrard is laying in terms of playing up to projections based upon strength of schedule. Garrard can't be trusted at this point and should be knocked down for not living up to expectations. Schaub is typically hitting his projections or surpassing them with only the rare miss. Go with the consistent points rather than the pure matchup. Sometimes you have to play the best player and throw out the strength of schedule and this is one of those times.
 
bjabrad said:
Garrard can't be trusted at this point and should be knocked down for not living up to expectations. Schaub is typically hitting his projections or surpassing them with only the rare miss. Go with the consistent points rather than the pure matchup.
Click to expand...
Great comparison here...Garrard isn't as good as the #1 QB in the league, so don't start him??
 
Another factor playing into my Garrard vs Schaub decision is the fact that my opponent is starting M. Sims-Walker.

KY

 
If you want consistency for your lineup, you don't ever start Garrard over Schaub. Even without Daniels, Schaub will throw ALOT week against Indy.

If you want to take a big chance on a really inconsistent QB having a blowup game against a really bad secondary, Garrard is your man this week.

 
abrecher said:
bjabrad said:
Garrard can't be trusted at this point and should be knocked down for not living up to expectations. Schaub is typically hitting his projections or surpassing them with only the rare miss. Go with the consistent points rather than the pure matchup.
Click to expand...
Great comparison here...Garrard isn't as good as the #1 QB in the league, so don't start him??
Click to expand...
No offense meant here, but I'm starting to think there might be a David Dodds curse. Similar to the Madden curse, it seems that every year whoever Dodds reccomends to wait on at QB in the perfect draft article seems to underperform that season. It seems like the last 3 years have been like that, or is it just me? I haven't analyzed this real deeply, just something I think I've noticed. Once again, no offense intended, I say it more tongue in cheek, but I might start avoiding the Dodds curse. LOL!
 
shredhead said:
abrecher said:
bjabrad said:
Garrard can't be trusted at this point and should be knocked down for not living up to expectations. Schaub is typically hitting his projections or surpassing them with only the rare miss. Go with the consistent points rather than the pure matchup.
Click to expand...
Great comparison here...Garrard isn't as good as the #1 QB in the league, so don't start him??
Click to expand...
No offense meant here, but I'm starting to think there might be a David Dodds curse. Similar to the Madden curse, it seems that every year whoever Dodds reccomends to wait on at QB in the perfect draft article seems to underperform that season. It seems like the last 3 years have been like that, or is it just me? I haven't analyzed this real deeply, just something I think I've noticed. Once again, no offense intended, I say it more tongue in cheek, but I might start avoiding the Dodds curse. LOL!
Click to expand...
DD did like rothlisberger in the year that he blew up.
 
abrecher said:
bjabrad said:
Garrard can't be trusted at this point and should be knocked down for not living up to expectations. Schaub is typically hitting his projections or surpassing them with only the rare miss. Go with the consistent points rather than the pure matchup.
Click to expand...
Great comparison here...Garrard isn't as good as the #1 QB in the league, so don't start him??
Click to expand...
I used Schaub as an example because a previous poster was deliberating over these two players this week. Schaub is #5 on a per game average in all of my leagues.Schaub's value at #5 going forward is up for debate after Schaub got shut down following the injury to TE Owen Daniels.I've got an idea for you. Instead of nit picking posts, why don't you state an opinion so we can share information. Taking pot shots doesn't further the discussion and just creates noise. This is an example of pissing in the Shark Pool.
 
footballnerd said:
KC has enough offense and lack of pass defense to make this a serious shootout. Garrard has potential for 3 to 4 TDs, so depends if you feel Shaub can do that without Daniels and possibly Slaton.
Click to expand...
KC Offense30th in YPG

27th in PPG

32 in 3rd down conversion

I know JAX aren't the 85 Bears on Defense but KC O stinks.

 
elitzer said:
Leo2228 said:
I am thinking about starting Garrard over Cutler vs ARI this week
Click to expand...
i am starting garrard over cutler also.if cutler cant out numbers up against cleveland then there is no way he will do better against arizona.
Click to expand...
In the same situation and doing the same as Garrard at home against KC is a lot better than Mr Int right now.
 
LittlePhatty said:
kyoun1e said:
If Sims-Walker scores, so does Garrard. They cancel.
Click to expand...
If Garrard manages to throw one TD to MSW and ends the day with 10 points, and Schaub finishes with 30 points, YOU are canceled.
Click to expand...
Yup. WHich is why there's really only one scenario in which it makes any sense to take Sims-Walker into the equation: you are somehow convinced that your team ex-QB will absolutely beat his team ex-Sims-Walker, and that the only possible way he can beat you is if Sims-Walker blows up for a huge game in which case you want Garrard to cancel it out.Hard for me to see how one could ever be so certain of something like this in Fantasy Football which is why I never understand the start QB "x" because my opponent has his WR strategy.

 
Kitrick Taylor said:
Quite sure that Dodds' 1st rankings are formula driven. As the week goes on, he starts factoring in player injuries, and common sense. He's said he feels much more comfortable with his rankings on Friday than Wednesday.
Click to expand...
More based on matchups is closer I think than forumlaic
 
HULLOBUDMAN said:
footballnerd said:
KC has enough offense and lack of pass defense to make this a serious shootout. Garrard has potential for 3 to 4 TDs, so depends if you feel Shaub can do that without Daniels and possibly Slaton.
Click to expand...
KC Offense30th in YPG

27th in PPG

32 in 3rd down conversion

I know JAX aren't the 85 Bears on Defense but KC O stinks.
Click to expand...
I was going off the fact that they put up 24 vs BAL D, 14 vs PHI D, 16 vs NYG, and 20 vs DAL. You would think they could put up at least 24+ vs the JAGs, but I guess homers are more down on them than I am. :blackdot:
 
footballnerd said:
HULLOBUDMAN said:
footballnerd said:
KC has enough offense and lack of pass defense to make this a serious shootout. Garrard has potential for 3 to 4 TDs, so depends if you feel Shaub can do that without Daniels and possibly Slaton.
Click to expand...
KC Offense30th in YPG

27th in PPG

32 in 3rd down conversion

I know JAX aren't the 85 Bears on Defense but KC O stinks.
Click to expand...
I was going off the fact that they put up 24 vs BAL D, 14 vs PHI D, 16 vs NYG, and 20 vs DAL. You would think they could put up at least 24+ vs the JAGs, but I guess homers are more down on them than I am. :shrug:
Click to expand...
If I remember correctly there was a D/ST TD in the Balt game (blocked punt) and another INt returned by Derrick Johnson to the 3 or 4. 14 of their 24 points.Dallas also gave them a short field for at least 2 of the scores in that game.

Honestly, I'm a little mad you are calling my opinion into question and making me remember these games. I just threw up a little in my mouth...

 
norgay said:
LittlePhatty said:
kyoun1e said:
If Sims-Walker scores, so does Garrard. They cancel.
Click to expand...
If Garrard manages to throw one TD to MSW and ends the day with 10 points, and Schaub finishes with 30 points, YOU are canceled.
Click to expand...
Yup. WHich is why there's really only one scenario in which it makes any sense to take Sims-Walker into the equation: you are somehow convinced that your team ex-QB will absolutely beat his team ex-Sims-Walker, and that the only possible way he can beat you is if Sims-Walker blows up for a huge game in which case you want Garrard to cancel it out.Hard for me to see how one could ever be so certain of something like this in Fantasy Football which is why I never understand the start QB "x" because my opponent has his WR strategy.
Click to expand...
Garrard doesn't have to beat MSW. Garrard has to beat your opponents QB. Your WR will have to cancel MSW.I can not see starting Garrard any more this year unless there were no other options.

 
footballnerd said:
KC has enough offense and lack of pass defense to make this a serious shootout. Garrard has potential for 3 to 4 TDs, so depends if you feel Shaub can do that without Daniels and possibly Slaton.
Click to expand...
When was the last time Garrard had 4 TDs in a game? How about never. In fact, he's only had 3 TDs (passing and rushing) four times. The odds suggest that it's not likely that Garrard will produce those numbers.
 
Sputnikv8 said:
norgay said:
LittlePhatty said:
kyoun1e said:
If Sims-Walker scores, so does Garrard. They cancel.
Click to expand...
If Garrard manages to throw one TD to MSW and ends the day with 10 points, and Schaub finishes with 30 points, YOU are canceled.
Click to expand...
Yup. WHich is why there's really only one scenario in which it makes any sense to take Sims-Walker into the equation: you are somehow convinced that your team ex-QB will absolutely beat his team ex-Sims-Walker, and that the only possible way he can beat you is if Sims-Walker blows up for a huge game in which case you want Garrard to cancel it out.Hard for me to see how one could ever be so certain of something like this in Fantasy Football which is why I never understand the start QB "x" because my opponent has his WR strategy.
Click to expand...
Garrard doesn't have to beat MSW. Garrard has to beat your opponents QB. Your WR will have to cancel MSW.I can not see starting Garrard any more this year unless there were no other options.
Click to expand...
That's a simplified way to look at it.Every week I look at my matchups and my opponents matchups. Why? It's pretty easy to see right away whether or not I can afford to "play it safe" in general or possibly across a couple positions or if I really need to to for serious upside.

Sims-Walker vs Garrard is a perfect example of this.

When I look at my opponent's lineup I see that MSW is a potential wildcard that could screw me. Overall, I think I have the matchups, but negating MSW with Garrard would in a way be "playing it safe." I don' see his QBs as huge threats either -- Alex Smith and Big Ben (@Denver).

Is it the total driver of the Garrard decision? No, but it's a consideration.

KY

 
LittlePhatty said:
kyoun1e said:
If Sims-Walker scores, so does Garrard. They cancel.
Click to expand...
If Garrard manages to throw one TD to MSW and ends the day with 10 points, and Schaub finishes with 30 points, YOU are canceled.
Click to expand...
Not likely.Indy's D is getting healthy. Indy is at home. Indy's D is getting better as it gets healhy. Schaub just lost his security blanket in Daniels and now will need to figure out he uses J. Jones/Walter/other TEs to fill the gap. And oh...I'm sure AJ will be double if not triple covered.Schaub isn't scoring 30 pts this week.KY
 
I think it is pretty safe to say that any QB that is matched up against KC, Clev, Stl, TB, Det, etc....is going to be ranked a little higher than normal that week....so it really should not be surprising.....these are the kind of weeks/matchups that Dodds had in mind when he started the manlove for Garrard in the preseason....it only makes sense that he would be ranked very high this week....

eta: personally I think Houston has the ability and talent to still hang with Indy in a semi shootout.....Freeney and company may be able to pin their ears back a few times during the game and the crowd will be a factor, but Houston still has some players even with Daniels out.....and Houston D is also coming around....

 
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abrecher said:
bjabrad said:
Garrard can't be trusted at this point and should be knocked down for not living up to expectations. Schaub is typically hitting his projections or surpassing them with only the rare miss.
Click to expand...
Great comparison here...Garrard isn't as good as the #1 QB in the league, so don't start him??
Click to expand...
Garrard isn't as good as the #21 QB in my league (ranked by per-game average).He's in the same points tier as Cassel, Leftwich and Campbell.I won't be leaving Garrard on my bench this week. I'm dropping him.
 
All the rankings are based on projections....not on floors, ceilings, gut-call, or 'his skills transcend bad matchups.'

Look at the projections that are mere points apart...throw in a tipped pass going for a TD or turning into an INT, and a guy goes from 1 to 15 or 15 to 1.

I think you can use the projections as a guide...last week it was tempting to put in Garrard over McNabb, but he was playing away again (and those stats are pretty consistently bad for him) against a ticked-off, humiliated TEN team coming off BYE.

I won because of Garrard and MSW a few weeks back at home when their rankings were high, but I just didn't trust the numbers this time and got lucky.

I would probably play Schaub every week until he proved me wrong a couple times in a row.

 
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kyoun1e said:
LittlePhatty said:
kyoun1e said:
If Sims-Walker scores, so does Garrard. They cancel.
Click to expand...
If Garrard manages to throw one TD to MSW and ends the day with 10 points, and Schaub finishes with 30 points, YOU are canceled.
Click to expand...
Not likely.Indy's D is getting healthy. Indy is at home. Indy's D is getting better as it gets healhy. Schaub just lost his security blanket in Daniels and now will need to figure out he uses J. Jones/Walter/other TEs to fill the gap. And oh...I'm sure AJ will be double if not triple covered.Schaub isn't scoring 30 pts this week.KY
Click to expand...
Getting better? That could be scary.They rank 9th in total yards per game: 292.17th in passing yards per game: 180.11st in points per game: 13It's pretty easy to say, they are already pretty good
 
kyoun1e said:
Sputnikv8 said:
norgay said:
LittlePhatty said:
kyoun1e said:
If Sims-Walker scores, so does Garrard. They cancel.
Click to expand...
If Garrard manages to throw one TD to MSW and ends the day with 10 points, and Schaub finishes with 30 points, YOU are canceled.
Click to expand...
Yup. WHich is why there's really only one scenario in which it makes any sense to take Sims-Walker into the equation: you are somehow convinced that your team ex-QB will absolutely beat his team ex-Sims-Walker, and that the only possible way he can beat you is if Sims-Walker blows up for a huge game in which case you want Garrard to cancel it out.Hard for me to see how one could ever be so certain of something like this in Fantasy Football which is why I never understand the start QB "x" because my opponent has his WR strategy.
Click to expand...
Garrard doesn't have to beat MSW. Garrard has to beat your opponents QB. Your WR will have to cancel MSW.I can not see starting Garrard any more this year unless there were no other options.
Click to expand...
That's a simplified way to look at it.Every week I look at my matchups and my opponents matchups. Why? It's pretty easy to see right away whether or not I can afford to "play it safe" in general or possibly across a couple positions or if I really need to to for serious upside.

Sims-Walker vs Garrard is a perfect example of this.

When I look at my opponent's lineup I see that MSW is a potential wildcard that could screw me. Overall, I think I have the matchups, but negating MSW with Garrard would in a way be "playing it safe." I don' see his QBs as huge threats either -- Alex Smith and Big Ben (@Denver).

Is it the total driver of the Garrard decision? No, but it's a consideration.

KY
Click to expand...
I have NEVER looked at my opponents lineup in order to set my lineup, and I never will...unless I own both QBs in the Monday night game, and he's starting one of the WRs, in which case I will know the current score of my contest and can decide whether to "play it safe" if I'm winning or "go for broke" if I'm losing. Even then, both QBs would need to be about equal, and the WR/QB combo would need to be like Smith/Delhomme circa 2006.
 
TommyGilmore said:
kyoun1e said:
Del Griffith said:
kyoun1e said:
Another factor playing into my Garrard vs Schaub decision is the fact that my opponent is starting M. Sims-Walker.

KY
Click to expand...
What does that have to do with anything?
Click to expand...
If Sims-Walker scores, so does Garrard. They cancel.
Click to expand...
Your 4-digit status should be revoked.
Click to expand...
:popcorn: In what universe does starting the QB that throws to the WR of your opponent cancel out the scoring ability of that WR?

If Schaub throws 3 TD's and Garrard throws 2 TD's, all to MSW, is Garrard still the better play? Nope.

 
I wish I had Schaub as an option this week. I've got Matt Ryan and Warner and both of their matchups are pushing me to grabbing Garrard off the WW to start at home.

 
Magnus_CA said:
I wish I had Schaub as an option this week. I've got Matt Ryan and Warner and both of their matchups are pushing me to grabbing Garrard off the WW to start at home.
Click to expand...
There's smart and there's desperate. I would start Warner most weeks without thinking about it.Did you read where JDel Rio is not going to allow Garrard to audible out of runs? EVER heard ANY HC do that to his QB?? Publicly?MJD will get the ball. Garrard might be an ok start, but I think your 3-4 TD game comes from Warner.
 
elitzer said:
Leo2228 said:
I am thinking about starting Garrard over Cutler vs ARI this week
Click to expand...
i am starting garrard over cutler also.if cutler cant out numbers up against cleveland then there is no way he will do better against arizona.
Click to expand...
from the top of my head, Cutler is getting about 240 yards and 1.5 TDs a game right now. That is exactly what ARI is giving up. So, it's realistic to think that's what he'll end up doing.
 
LittlePhatty said:
abrecher said:
bjabrad said:
Garrard can't be trusted at this point and should be knocked down for not living up to expectations. Schaub is typically hitting his projections or surpassing them with only the rare miss.
Click to expand...
Great comparison here...Garrard isn't as good as the #1 QB in the league, so don't start him??
Click to expand...
Garrard isn't as good as the #21 QB in my league (ranked by per-game average).He's in the same points tier as Cassel, Leftwich and Campbell.I won't be leaving Garrard on my bench this week. I'm dropping him.
Click to expand...
Good call, I should have dropped him sooner so maybe my competition would pick him up and play him against me which is really like having a player on the other team's roster.
 
kyoun1e said:
Truman said:
kyoun1e said:
4. Schaub faces Indy secondary in Indy.
Click to expand...
Schaub faces 2 rookie corners with Kelvin Hayden out this week. Sanders isn't exactly a beacon of health either.
Click to expand...
Those rookie corners must be pretty damn good then.And as long as Sanders is on the field, he's punishing somebody.KY
Click to expand...
Sanders, Hayden and Jackson have played very little this year.The two rookies have started 6 games and 1 game according the nfl.com. Aso they are 3rd and 6th on the team for tackles. So they've been a big part of the defense already due to the injuries. I haven't seen anything to say that Jennings is out are we sure the both rookies are starting?
 
ffball-novice said:
kyoun1e said:
Truman said:
kyoun1e said:
4. Schaub faces Indy secondary in Indy.
Click to expand...
Schaub faces 2 rookie corners with Kelvin Hayden out this week. Sanders isn't exactly a beacon of health either.
Click to expand...
Those rookie corners must be pretty damn good then.And as long as Sanders is on the field, he's punishing somebody.KY
Click to expand...
Sanders, Hayden and Jackson have played very little this year.The two rookies have started 6 games and 1 game according the nfl.com. Aso they are 3rd and 6th on the team for tackles. So they've been a big part of the defense already due to the injuries. I haven't seen anything to say that Jennings is out are we sure the both rookies are starting?
Click to expand...
Marlin Jackson to IR via Scheftweet. Jennings will play, that's still 2/3 rookie corners on most downs.
 
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