True League Winners - Upgrading the Playoff Roster (1 Viewer)

[creepythinman]

Sitting 10-0 in my primary league after this week with a Week 15 playoff bye secure. For those in the same position, it's time to start making moves to put your team in the best position to win your Week 16 and 17 matchups, where every single point matters.

Looking through a multitude of factors and metrics (SOS, NEP, APA, AFP/target, home/away splits, volatility, weather, and potential game scripts), here are a few playoff game winners for whom might worth sacrificing trade equity and immediate production.

QB

Kyler Murray faces CHI (#1 in adjusted fantasy points allowed per dropback ("AFPA/DB")) in Week 16 and PHI (#7 in AFPA/DB) in Week 17. Dream matchups, however, both games are on the road in cities with potentially terrible weather against teams who will run the ball 30+ times if allowed. Not too worried about tanking/sitting as Kyler will still be proving he's the franchise QB and Jonathan Gannon will be fighting to keep his job. High floor with his rushing. Not a great week against Atlanta and he was essentially free so he's trade obtainable.

Baker Mayfield seemed like a QB I'd hate to start in the playoffs, but upon a deeper dive found him to be underrated. In my league, he’s QB13 overall in PPG, ahead of the Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. And Weeks 16 and 17, Baker faces two teams at home without great metrics: JAX (#25 in AFPA/DB) and NO (#16 in ADPA/DB). But he's on this list because: (1) both games are at home in the Florida sunshine; (2) has a low bust rate (finishing outside of the top 10 only 3 games out of 9 games); and (3) JAX and NO are two of the worst teams in pressure/sack rate (both bottom 6). Defenses need to blitz when they can't get to the QB with 4 and Baker is QB #6 in the NFL in passer rating vs. man defenses. Coming into Week 10, Baker's overall EPA (expected points added) under pressure was +0.9, the highest in the NFL. The second highest EPA in the league is Josh Allen at -7.1. This year, Baker has played 4 games against defenses with a bottom 10 sack rate and finished as the QB17 (317yds, 1 TD, 17 rush yds), QB8 (246yds, 3 TDs, 36 rush yds) vs. the Saints, QB10 (275yds, 2 TDs, 32 rush yds), and QB7 (265yds, 2 TDs). He might not win you the week, but it's unlikely he'll lose it for you. And if you have someone like a Sam Howell as your QB1 (playing NYJ and SF in the playoffs), a QB who won't lose it for you might be enough. In Week 17, he plays the Saints who he had his best game of the season against and whose defense has been on the downhill for weeks. Baker should be dirt cheap to trade for as his perception is lower than his reality.

Josh Allen’s past 5 weeks haven't been mind-blowing so the door may be open for trade. Faces LAC (#9 in ADPA/DB and #4 in APA) and NE (#25 in ADPA/DB). If Allen is able to repeat his performance vs. MIA in Week 16 vs. the Chargers in another shootout, it's going to be very hard to keep the Josh Allen owner out of the championship. If you have a stacked bench, it is worth packaging your RB3/WR3 to your QB1 for this upgrade.

RB

Austin Ekeler, like with any early first round pick, might be close to untouchable. But he has the best playoff APA schedule at the RB position. In Week 15, he plays BUF who allows the 6th highest fantasy point per carry ("FP/C") and is #10 in total APA. BUF does allow the 3rd lowest fantasy point per target ("FP/T") to RBs but in a hopeful shootout, Ekeler should be getting a lot of targets. In Week 16, he plays Denver who gives up the 5th most FP/C and the 8th most FP/T to RBs -- true league winning stuff. The Chargers are 4-5 but with only 3 games remaining vs. teams with a record above .500, should still be in the playoff hunt until Week 18.

Josh Jacobs should be a trade target. Use the rookie QB angle. Use the interim head coach angle. Use the too many touches angle. Use the Week 13 bye angle and upgrade at RB. Weeks 16 and 17, faces KC and IND on the road. While KC isn’t a great matchup on paper, ranking 12th best in APA to RBs, there’s some hidden data there. KC allows the 3rd most Net Expected Points per Carry (“NEP/C”), behind CAR and DEN and just ahead of the Raiders, which means the key to scoring against and beating KC is to run the ball. KC allows the 11th most carries at home. The Raiders have found their identity the last couple of weeks under Antonio Pierce and Bo Hardegree and that identity is to play defense and keep running the damn ball. Jacobs has carried the ball 26 and 27 times in the past 2 weeks under the new leadership. I would expect 25 to 30+ carries against KC on the road no matter what. Even down by 2 scores, they’re not going to feed Aidan O’Connell to the wolves. Week 17, IND ranks 28th in APA to RBs and allows the 3rd most FP/C to RBs. IND allows the most rushing attempts at home in the league, at 32.4 rush attempts per game. Based on volume alone, Jacobs is going to be a Week 17 stud. The Raiders are incredibly 5-5 and second in the division. Jacobs is still playing for his next contract and Antonio Pierce wants the full-time HC job, so not much risk of Jacobs sitting. Loving his Week 13 bye as well, an extra week of rest to prepare for his massive workload down the stretch.

Bijan Robinson* unfortunately is saddled with Arthur Smith but even with that factored in, he’s in a great spot Week 16 vs. the same IND defense at home. Even with Allgeier vulturing 10 carries, Bijan still touch the ball 20+ times. His use in the pass game greatly diminished under Heinicke who loves to just close his eyes and throw it deep, so Bijan owners should hope it’s Ridder under center during the playoffs. I’m very concerned about his Week 17 matchup on the road at Chicago, despite CHI ranking 25th in APA to RBs. CHI’s rush defense is ranked 2nd in the NFL and at home allows the 3rd fewest rush attempts per game in the league at 20.6. At a 50/50 split, Bijan is only running the ball 10 to 11 times. Where CHI has been hurt by RBs is through the air, allowing the 2nd most FP/T to RBs. However, if Heinicke starts Week 17, it’s safe to say that Bijan’s targets will be limited. *With Ridder, Bijan has two weeks of smash starts in the playoffs. Without Ridder, Bijan might be on the bench for me.

 

[creepythinman]

WR

Justin Jefferson is probably back this week and might be difficult to pry from his owner after all this time. But if I had Tyreek Hill (facing the #1, #2 and #6 ranked defenses in APA to WRs in Weeks 15 to 17), I’d consider trading Tyreek for Jetta. While the metrics don’t look great (facing the #22 and #4 ranked defenses in APA to WRs), I’m taking the man over those metrics. Week 16, Jefferson faces DET at home. After being torched by Keenan Allen, DET now allows the 11th most points to WRs. Jefferson loves playing against DET. For his career, he averages 7.3rec, 123.3yds vs. DET per game. Minnesota at home allows the fewest rushing yards in the NFL, so there should be fewer rushing attempts for DET than normal, meaning more snaps overall in this game. Week 17, Jefferson faces GB at home. Even if Jaire Alexander is healthy by then, Jefferson loves playing GB at home. Jefferson has had the two highest scoring fantasy games of his career in this matchup. Last year, he went 11rec, 184yds, 2 TDs at home vs. GB. In 2021, he went 8rec, 169yds, 2 TDs at home vs. GB. While Dobbs may not be Cousins, Dobbs can extend a play with his legs unlike with Cousins and I can’t wait to see what Jefferson is able to do down the field during those plays. Minnesota is fighting for the division and the playoffs so Jefferson will not be shutting it down. I’d trade any WR straight up for Jefferson including…

A.J. Brown faces NYG and ARI at home in the playoffs. Coming into Week 10, NYG was a top 10 defense in WR FP/T. After being Cooked and Lambed, NYG is now ranked #20 in WR FP/T and has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to WRs. Some risk here as Brown has never really been a target monster and I worry about how many looks he’ll get in a likely blowout (Dallas result withstanding). Week 17, he faces an ARI defense that has allowed the 2nd highest FP/T to WRs this year. If Kyler and the Cardinals are able to keep up with PHI, Brown will eat. If this is another blowout, I would worry again about his workload especially as PHI runs the ball more than any other team at home and the Cardinals run defense is just as bad as their pass defense. Would trade Tyreek straight up for Brown or put together a Mike Evans/Keenan Allen & Sam LaPorta package type package for him.

Tyler Lockett is the WR1 for SEA, at least for fantasy purposes. Lockett has finished as a WR2 or better 4 out of 9 weeks and finished in the top-12 3 of those weeks. Comparatively, Metcalf has finished in the top-24 only 2 out of 8 weeks and has never finished as a WR1. Weeks 16 and 17, SEA faces teams who have allowed the 7th most (@TEN) and 6th most (PIT) fantasy points to WRs. Metcalf’s bust rate is too high for me to trust, but having Lockett as your WR2 or Flex should provide an absolute advantage in the playoffs. He’s little, he’s old, and he has a lingering hamstring issue that hasn’t stopped him so far – so he should be obtainable on the cheap via trade.

Chris Olave owners are hoping that Derek Carr has been discovered to be the fraud that he is and that Pastor Winston is the starting QB by playoff time, throwing up touchdown bombs and interceptions alike to turn Week 16 into a high-scoring shootout with the Rams. The Saints defense has slowly been morphing into a terrible defense. They suddenly can’t stop TEs (2 TDs for Kmet in Week 9; 134yds and 1 TD for Hockenson in Week 10) and can’t stop QBs from running the ball (59yds for Lawrence, 70yds for Bagent, 44yds for Dobbs). They can’t pressure the QB (3rd lowest sack rate in the NFL). And they just lost Marshon Lattimore indefinitely to a high ankle sprain. On the road at the Rams in Week 16, I like the chances for a high-scoring game with the Saints playing from behind. Olave has gone over 100 yards and scored a TD once in his NFL career, and it was against the Rams last year. Week 17, Olave travels to TB ranked #29 in APA to WRs. TB allows the 12th highest FP/T to WRs. Liking a high-scoring game here as well. Olave seems to be one of the most hated players in fantasy and had 0 targets in the 1st half this past week. With a NO bye this week, Olave owners might be itching to get off this train. If I owned a D’Andre Swift, who’s approaching a career high in touches for a season and whose production has been at a RB3 level for the past 3 weeks, I’d be looking move him for an Olave package to stick at WR2 or Flex.

 

[creepythinman]

TE

Dalton Kinkaid owners are praying Dawson Knox’s wrist issues linger and nothing changes when it comes to Kinkaid’s usage (especially with today’s firing of OC Ken Dorsey). Kinkaid has been option 1B for Josh Allen in the past 4 weeks, with only 4 less targets than Stephon Diggs during that span. He caught one TD in the DEN game and could have had another as he was the first read on the play Allen ran it in for a TD. Week 16, he faces the Chargers in sunny California in a potential shootout. The Chargers rank #30 in APA to TEs and have allowed the 10th most FP/T to TEs. Week 17, Kincaid faces NE at home against whom he had 8 receptions for 75 yards in Week 7. Belichick prefers to game plan the #1 option out of the game which hasn’t worked against Diggs who has scored 7 TDs in his last 6 games vs. NE. If even more coverage is rolled over to Diggs, the short/intermediary should be wide open for Kincaid. NE is tied for the 3rd lowest sack rate in the NFL so Kincaid shouldn’t be asked to pass block much or at all. BUF is currently at 40% to make the playoffs so this game should have all hands on deck.

Trey McBride is a potential league winner by all definitions…as long as Zach Ertz stays out. His target share is laughable in the last 3 games without Ertz: 39%, 25%, and 29%. Watching Kyler Murray play this past week, McBride is absolutely Kyler’s safety net. Kyler’s lack of height has frequently led to him peppering his taller receivers with targets. ARI has the easiest APA matchups in Week 16 and 17. Week 16, McBride travels to CHI and faces the worst defense in the NFL in APA vs. TEs. Considering CHI’s stout run defense, there will be plenty of targets coming McBride’s way. As CHI allows the 5th most FP/T to TEs, McBride is in for a monster week just as long as the weather holds up for this Christmas Eve game. Week 17, McBride faces PHI on the road who ranks #28 in APA vs. TEs. In a game where ARI should be playing catch up, McBride should feast vs. an Eagles defense that allows the 2nd most TE FP/T.

*Sam LaPorta* is a TE I’d be looking to trade away for a Kincaid or McBride to upgrade your playoff starters. It’s been a law of nature that Jared Goff’s production suffers on the road vs. home. And that is being seen in LaPorta’s splits. At home, he’s averaging 7.75 targets, 6 rec, 62.75yds, 1 TD per game. On the road, he’s averaging 7 targets, 4.5 rec, 46yds, 0 TDs per game. That’s a 51% drop in production on the road. In his 5 road games, LaPorta has finished the week as TE8, TE14, TE18, TE9, TE14. And you guessed it, both of his games in Week 16 and 17 are on the road. At this moment, with his glaring home/away splits, I’m not willing to sacrifice points in the TE position battle with the fantasy championship on the line.

 

[creepythinman]

K & DEF

In the playoffs, every point matters and having the edge on defense and special teams creates a buffer that increases win percentage. If your rosters lock prior to Week 15, picking up your fantasy K and DEF weeks ahead of time is advised, especially considering how much weather impacts defense and special teams.

Jake Moody has hopefully corrected his issues from Weeks 6 and 7 where he missed 3 out of 5 FGs. Currently ranks #7 in PPG among kickers. Week 16, Moody faces BAL at home in a neutral matchup where he has yet to miss a kick. The BAL defense is good enough to turn a couple of his XPs into FGs instead. Week 17, Moody travels to Landover, Maryland to face a Washington team that has allowed the most points to opposing kickers at 32.4% above league average. While there is potential for bad weather, snow hasn’t severely affected the Washington D.C. area prior to early January in years.

Jason Myers is coming off a 5 FG game vs. WAS and currently ranks #4 in PPG. Even taking away his 17pt week vs. WAS, he would rank #8 in PPG. Week 16, Myers travels to TEN vs. a team that has allowed the 2nd most points to kickers. Week 17, Myers does have to face that former Heinz Field January wind but PIT does allow the 12th most points to kickers.

PHI DST is the #9 DST in PPG and faces dream matchups at home in Week 16 and 17 vs. NYG and ARI. The Giants allow the most fantasy points to opposing DSTs at 99.3% above league average. If Tyrod Taylor is not back starting by then, there is no other DST I’d rather have for Week 16 than PHI. In Week 17, while Kyler Murray may be able to move the ball, he is still a QB that will turn the ball over and give up sacks. ARI has allowed the 6th highest PPG to DSTs but that is with all the Dobbs and Tune games factored in.

Let’s fight for every one of those extra points!

 

[BobbyLayne]

*Sam LaPorta* is a TE I’d be looking to trade for a Kincaid or McBride to upgrade your playoff starters. It’s been a law of nature that Jared Goff’s production on the road vs. home. And that is being seen in LaPorta’s splits. At home, he’s averaging 7.75 targets, 6 rec, 62.75yds, 1 TD per game. On the road, he’s averaging 7 targets, 4.5 rec, 46yds, 0 TDs per game. That’s a 51% drop in production on the road. In his 5 road games, LaPorta has finished the week as TE8, TE14, TE18, TE9, TE14. And you guessed it, both of his games in Week 16 and 17 are on the road. At this moment, with his glaring home/away splits, I’m not willing to sacrifice points in the TE position battle with the fantasy championship on the line.

Week 11	Chi (9th)	Sunday, November 19 1:00
Week 12	GB (23rd)	Thursday, November 23 Thanksgiving 12:30

Week 13	@NO (12th)	Sunday, December 3 1:00 PM
Week 14	@Chi (9th)	Sunday, December 10 1:00 PM
Week 15	Den (1st)	Sunday, December 17 1:00 PM
Week 16	@Min (17th)	Sunday, December 24 1:00 PM
Week 17	@Dal (16th)	Saturday, December 30, 8:15 PM

Siri, set a reminder for 11pm on December 30th

 

[BobbyLayne]

Very nice work here @creepythinman thanks for providing this

 

[FarFromHome]

Solid post man. Although I'm not 10-0 I'm always looking at fantasy playoffs. Even when drafting so this post is right up my alley.

 

[BobbyLayne]

fm the Tiered Flex but OK files

Best FF ROS schedule for Tight Ends (e.g., based on FFPA to TEs)

1. Saints +1,5
2. Falcons +1.4
3. Vikings +1.4
4. Cardinals +1.4
5. Bengals +0.9
6. Lions +0.9
7. Texans +0.9

Pitts, Hock, McBride, LaPorta and Schultz seem like good plays based solely on that (of course we would never base our decisions solely on SOS, it's just one to throw in the consideration hopper.)

Personally JJ & Hudson don't move the needle for me but YMMV.

EDIT = Bills/Kincaid clock in at 0.0 so no worries there

Spoiler: what are those numbers

Standard Deviation for the remaining schedule, i,e., in simplest terms, think of it as ROS SOS.

Matchup Bonuses can help you predict if a fantasy player will score more or less than usual. We first model the team "Baseline", which represents the fantasy points expected from all team players at the given position. The rest of the table indicates the weekly deviations from this baseline-- i.e. the "matchup bonus". The AVG column therefore represents the rest-of-season strength of schedule.

 

[kyoun1e]

ATL, LV, and LAC have sweet schedules weeks 15-17. The likes of Ekeler, Allen, Jacobs, and Bijan are all worth targeting.

 

[Hartliner]

Sitting 10-0 in my primary league after this week with a Week 15 playoff bye secure. For those in the same position, it's time to start making moves to put your team in the best position to win your Week 16 and 17 matchups, where every single point matters.

Looking through a multitude of factors and metrics (SOS, NEP, APA, AFP/target, home/away splits, volatility, weather, and potential game scripts), here are a few playoff game winners for whom might worth sacrificing trade equity and immediate production.

QB

Kyler Murray faces CHI (#1 in adjusted fantasy points allowed per dropback ("AFPA/DB")) in Week 16 and PHI (#7 in AFPA/DB) in Week 17. Dream matchups, however, both games are on the road in cities with potentially terrible weather against teams who will run the ball 30+ times if allowed. Not too worried about tanking/sitting as Kyler will still be proving he's the franchise QB and Jonathan Gannon will be fighting to keep his job. High floor with his rushing. Not a great week against Atlanta and he was essentially free so he's trade obtainable.

Baker Mayfield seemed like a QB I'd hate to start in the playoffs, but upon a deeper dive found him to be underrated. In my league, he’s QB13 overall in PPG, ahead of the Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. And Weeks 16 and 17, Baker faces two teams at home without great metrics: JAX (#25 in AFPA/DB) and NO (#16 in ADPA/DB). But he's on this list because: (1) both games are at home in the Florida sunshine; (2) has a low bust rate (finishing outside of the top 10 only 3 games out of 9 games); and (3) JAX and NO are two of the worst teams in pressure/sack rate (both bottom 6). Defenses need to blitz when they can't get to the QB with 4 and Baker is QB #6 in the NFL in passer rating vs. man defenses. Coming into Week 10, Baker's overall EPA (expected points added) under pressure was +0.9, the highest in the NFL. The second highest EPA in the league is Josh Allen at -7.1. This year, Baker has played 4 games against defenses with a bottom 10 sack rate and finished as the QB17 (317yds, 1 TD, 17 rush yds), QB8 (246yds, 3 TDs, 36 rush yds) vs. the Saints, QB10 (275yds, 2 TDs, 32 rush yds), and QB7 (265yds, 2 TDs). He might not win you the week, but it's unlikely he'll lose it for you. And if you have someone like a Sam Howell as your QB1 (playing NYJ and SF in the playoffs), a QB who won't lose it for you might be enough. In Week 17, he plays the Saints who he had his best game of the season against and whose defense has been on the downhill for weeks. Baker should be dirt cheap to trade for as his perception is lower than his reality.

Josh Allen’s past 5 weeks haven't been mind-blowing so the door may be open for trade. Faces LAC (#9 in ADPA/DB and #4 in APA) and NE (#25 in ADPA/DB). If Allen is able to repeat his performance vs. MIA in Week 16 vs. the Chargers in another shootout, it's going to be very hard to keep the Josh Allen owner out of the championship. If you have a stacked bench, it is worth packaging your RB3/WR3 to your QB1 for this upgrade.

RB

Austin Ekeler, like with any early first round pick, might be close to untouchable. But he has the best playoff APA schedule at the RB position. In Week 15, he plays BUF who allows the 6th highest fantasy point per carry ("FP/C") and is #10 in total APA. BUF does allow the 3rd lowest fantasy point per target ("FP/T") to RBs but in a hopeful shootout, Ekeler should be getting a lot of targets. In Week 16, he plays Denver who gives up the 5th most FP/C and the 8th most FP/T to RBs -- true league winning stuff. The Chargers are 4-5 but with only 3 games remaining vs. teams with a record above .500, should still be in the playoff hunt until Week 18.

Josh Jacobs should be a trade target. Use the rookie QB angle. Use the interim head coach angle. Use the too many touches angle. Use the Week 13 bye angle and upgrade at RB. Weeks 16 and 17, faces KC and IND on the road. While KC isn’t a great matchup on paper, ranking 12th best in APA to RBs, there’s some hidden data there. KC allows the 3rd most Net Expected Points per Carry (“NEP/C”), behind CAR and DEN and just ahead of the Raiders, which means the key to scoring against and beating KC is to run the ball. KC allows the 11th most carries at home. The Raiders have found their identity the last couple of weeks under Antonio Pierce and Bo Hardegree and that identity is to play defense and keep running the damn ball. Jacobs has carried the ball 26 and 27 times in the past 2 weeks under the new leadership. I would expect 25 to 30+ carries against KC on the road no matter what. Even down by 2 scores, they’re not going to feed Aidan O’Connell to the wolves. Week 17, IND ranks 28th in APA to RBs and allows the 3rd most FP/C to RBs. IND allows the most rushing attempts at home in the league, at 32.4 rush attempts per game. Based on volume alone, Jacobs is going to be a Week 17 stud. The Raiders are incredibly 5-5 and second in the division. Jacobs is still playing for his next contract and Antonio Pierce wants the full-time HC job, so not much risk of Jacobs sitting. Loving his Week 13 bye as well, an extra week of rest to prepare for his massive workload down the stretch.

Bijan Robinson* unfortunately is saddled with Arthur Smith but even with that factored in, he’s in a great spot Week 16 vs. the same IND defense at home. Even with Allgeier vulturing 10 carries, Bijan still touch the ball 20+ times. His use in the pass game greatly diminished under Heinicke who loves to just close his eyes and throw it deep, so Bijan owners should hope it’s Ridder under center during the playoffs. I’m very concerned about his Week 17 matchup on the road at Chicago, despite CHI ranking 25th in APA to RBs. CHI’s rush defense is ranked 2nd in the NFL and at home allows the 3rd fewest rush attempts per game in the league at 20.6. At a 50/50 split, Bijan is only running the ball 10 to 11 times. Where CHI has been hurt by RBs is through the air, allowing the 2nd most FP/T to RBs. However, if Heinicke starts Week 17, it’s safe to say that Bijan’s targets will be limited. *With Ridder, Bijan has two weeks of smash starts in the playoffs. Without Ridder, Bijan might be on the bench for me.

How do we feel about the pass catchers for these QBs then ,should they all rise in your eyes?

- Marquise Brown should now have better days ahead and did not blow up on the debut of Murray. So last time to buy low.
- Trey McBride focal point of intermediate routes and you mentioned
- Michael Wilson easiest entry

- Stefon Diggs obviously
- Gabe Davis not for the faint of heart
- Shakir prolly the sneakier one to grab
- Kincaid most likely gonna cost

- Mike Evans ?
- Chris Godwin ?

 

[creepythinman]

Sitting 10-0 in my primary league after this week with a Week 15 playoff bye secure. For those in the same position, it's time to start making moves to put your team in the best position to win your Week 16 and 17 matchups, where every single point matters.

Looking through a multitude of factors and metrics (SOS, NEP, APA, AFP/target, home/away splits, volatility, weather, and potential game scripts), here are a few playoff game winners for whom might worth sacrificing trade equity and immediate production.

QB

Kyler Murray faces CHI (#1 in adjusted fantasy points allowed per dropback ("AFPA/DB")) in Week 16 and PHI (#7 in AFPA/DB) in Week 17. Dream matchups, however, both games are on the road in cities with potentially terrible weather against teams who will run the ball 30+ times if allowed. Not too worried about tanking/sitting as Kyler will still be proving he's the franchise QB and Jonathan Gannon will be fighting to keep his job. High floor with his rushing. Not a great week against Atlanta and he was essentially free so he's trade obtainable.

Baker Mayfield seemed like a QB I'd hate to start in the playoffs, but upon a deeper dive found him to be underrated. In my league, he’s QB13 overall in PPG, ahead of the Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. And Weeks 16 and 17, Baker faces two teams at home without great metrics: JAX (#25 in AFPA/DB) and NO (#16 in ADPA/DB). But he's on this list because: (1) both games are at home in the Florida sunshine; (2) has a low bust rate (finishing outside of the top 10 only 3 games out of 9 games); and (3) JAX and NO are two of the worst teams in pressure/sack rate (both bottom 6). Defenses need to blitz when they can't get to the QB with 4 and Baker is QB #6 in the NFL in passer rating vs. man defenses. Coming into Week 10, Baker's overall EPA (expected points added) under pressure was +0.9, the highest in the NFL. The second highest EPA in the league is Josh Allen at -7.1. This year, Baker has played 4 games against defenses with a bottom 10 sack rate and finished as the QB17 (317yds, 1 TD, 17 rush yds), QB8 (246yds, 3 TDs, 36 rush yds) vs. the Saints, QB10 (275yds, 2 TDs, 32 rush yds), and QB7 (265yds, 2 TDs). He might not win you the week, but it's unlikely he'll lose it for you. And if you have someone like a Sam Howell as your QB1 (playing NYJ and SF in the playoffs), a QB who won't lose it for you might be enough. In Week 17, he plays the Saints who he had his best game of the season against and whose defense has been on the downhill for weeks. Baker should be dirt cheap to trade for as his perception is lower than his reality.

Josh Allen’s past 5 weeks haven't been mind-blowing so the door may be open for trade. Faces LAC (#9 in ADPA/DB and #4 in APA) and NE (#25 in ADPA/DB). If Allen is able to repeat his performance vs. MIA in Week 16 vs. the Chargers in another shootout, it's going to be very hard to keep the Josh Allen owner out of the championship. If you have a stacked bench, it is worth packaging your RB3/WR3 to your QB1 for this upgrade.

RB

Austin Ekeler, like with any early first round pick, might be close to untouchable. But he has the best playoff APA schedule at the RB position. In Week 15, he plays BUF who allows the 6th highest fantasy point per carry ("FP/C") and is #10 in total APA. BUF does allow the 3rd lowest fantasy point per target ("FP/T") to RBs but in a hopeful shootout, Ekeler should be getting a lot of targets. In Week 16, he plays Denver who gives up the 5th most FP/C and the 8th most FP/T to RBs -- true league winning stuff. The Chargers are 4-5 but with only 3 games remaining vs. teams with a record above .500, should still be in the playoff hunt until Week 18.

Josh Jacobs should be a trade target. Use the rookie QB angle. Use the interim head coach angle. Use the too many touches angle. Use the Week 13 bye angle and upgrade at RB. Weeks 16 and 17, faces KC and IND on the road. While KC isn’t a great matchup on paper, ranking 12th best in APA to RBs, there’s some hidden data there. KC allows the 3rd most Net Expected Points per Carry (“NEP/C”), behind CAR and DEN and just ahead of the Raiders, which means the key to scoring against and beating KC is to run the ball. KC allows the 11th most carries at home. The Raiders have found their identity the last couple of weeks under Antonio Pierce and Bo Hardegree and that identity is to play defense and keep running the damn ball. Jacobs has carried the ball 26 and 27 times in the past 2 weeks under the new leadership. I would expect 25 to 30+ carries against KC on the road no matter what. Even down by 2 scores, they’re not going to feed Aidan O’Connell to the wolves. Week 17, IND ranks 28th in APA to RBs and allows the 3rd most FP/C to RBs. IND allows the most rushing attempts at home in the league, at 32.4 rush attempts per game. Based on volume alone, Jacobs is going to be a Week 17 stud. The Raiders are incredibly 5-5 and second in the division. Jacobs is still playing for his next contract and Antonio Pierce wants the full-time HC job, so not much risk of Jacobs sitting. Loving his Week 13 bye as well, an extra week of rest to prepare for his massive workload down the stretch.

Bijan Robinson* unfortunately is saddled with Arthur Smith but even with that factored in, he’s in a great spot Week 16 vs. the same IND defense at home. Even with Allgeier vulturing 10 carries, Bijan still touch the ball 20+ times. His use in the pass game greatly diminished under Heinicke who loves to just close his eyes and throw it deep, so Bijan owners should hope it’s Ridder under center during the playoffs. I’m very concerned about his Week 17 matchup on the road at Chicago, despite CHI ranking 25th in APA to RBs. CHI’s rush defense is ranked 2nd in the NFL and at home allows the 3rd fewest rush attempts per game in the league at 20.6. At a 50/50 split, Bijan is only running the ball 10 to 11 times. Where CHI has been hurt by RBs is through the air, allowing the 2nd most FP/T to RBs. However, if Heinicke starts Week 17, it’s safe to say that Bijan’s targets will be limited. *With Ridder, Bijan has two weeks of smash starts in the playoffs. Without Ridder, Bijan might be on the bench for me.

How do we feel about the pass catchers for these QBs then should they all rise in your eyes?

Marquise Brown should now have better days ahead and did not blow up on the debut of Murray. So last time to buy low.
Trey McBride focal point of intermediate routes and you mentioned
Michael Wilson easiest entry

Stefon Diggs obviously
Gabe Davis not for the faint of heart
Shakir prolly the sneakier one to grab
Kincaid most likely gonna cost

Mike Evans ?
Chris Godwin ?

Marquise Brown - I actually have as a sell high as I'm worried about his target share moving forward. Kyler likes to lean on taller receivers. Marquise had some huge games with Kyler early last season but his production fell off a cliff once Hopkins came back because Hopkins sucked up so many targets. I have McBride as the primary option, followed by either Marquise or Michael Wilson. This past game Marquise was 4th in targets behind McBride, Wilson, and Rondale Moore who Kyler loves to throw to. In the playoffs, it's about relying on players who likely won't bust and lose you the week. With Marquise lack of projected target share and target efficiency as so many of his routes are down the field, he's too much of a bust candidate for me to rely on with a championship on the line.

Stefon Diggs - Kincaid has really been eating into Diggs' target share and first-read share, particularly in the red zone. And he might be becoming a locker room distraction even if it's only because his brother won't shut up. If you have Diggs, you start Diggs. But even with the great matchups in the playoffs, with the trade equity required to acquire him, I'd rather use that equity (and add to it) to acquire Jefferson or A.J. Brown.

Mike Evans/Chris Godwin - By Week 17, Marshon Lattimore might or might not be healthy with his high ankle injury. Hard to move forward on these guys with that variable. Lattimore has shut down/severely limited Evans in the past during their matchups. When that has happened, Godwin has usually benefited from extra targets. If Lattimore plays, I'd hesitate on starting Evans and would start Godwin. If Lattimore sits, full steam ahead with Evans but not Godwin.

 

[Biabreakable]

Bijan Robinson* unfortunately is saddled with Arthur Smith but even with that factored in, he’s in a great spot Week 16 vs. the same IND defense at home. Even with Allgeier vulturing 10 carries, Bijan still touch the ball 20+ times. His use in the pass game greatly diminished under Heinicke who loves to just close his eyes and throw it deep, so Bijan owners should hope it’s Ridder under center during the playoffs. I’m very concerned about his Week 17 matchup on the road at Chicago, despite CHI ranking 25th in APA to RBs. CHI’s rush defense is ranked 2nd in the NFL and at home allows the 3rd fewest rush attempts per game in the league at 20.6. At a 50/50 split, Bijan is only running the ball 10 to 11 times. Where CHI has been hurt by RBs is through the air, allowing the 2nd most FP/T to RBs. However, if Heinicke starts Week 17, it’s safe to say that Bijan’s targets will be limited. *With Ridder, Bijan has two weeks of smash starts in the playoffs. Without Ridder, Bijan might be on the bench for me.

Nice post.

While I agree with you that Ridder is better for the Atlanta skill players than Heinicke is, he has higher completion % yars ect. I don't think targets for Robinson with Heinicke have diminished enough to be certain of that difference.

Targets prior to the 1 touch game were 4 per game. Since then 3.7 per game.

Yes Robinson only had 2 targets in the game vs Arizona he only had 2 targets in the game vs Houston also.

The difference has been that Robinson has not caught as many of his targets with Heinicke only 27% of them compared to 81% with Ridder.

Perhaps you view the net result as being the same, just pointing out the targets have still been there.

Also Robinson had 22 rushing attempts vs Arizona, so only 2 targets less of a concern if rushing attempts are high.

I am not saying Riider isn't better for Robinson than Heinicke. Just that I don't think we have enough evidence to say Heinicke isn't targeting Robinson as much as Ridder.

If anything I think Robinson opportunities are trending up now and that continues towards seasons end.

Just some other things to consider besides Ridder vs Heinicke being primary onus of the decision.

Ridder has thrown more interceptions and has been sacked at a higher rate than Heinicke is why I think they made the QB change. Sacks do not get taken away from receivers, so as fantasy managers we care less about that.

Eta - throwing to a RB is relatively easy. I can't explain why they have only connected on 27% of those targets. An average for that is about 73% and no matter how bad Heinicke is I would expect the targets to correct to that rate going forward.

 

[Biabreakable]

In regards to your numbers that the Vikings have allowed rushing at home for the game vs Detroit bear in mind that MLB Jordan Hicks is on IR right now and those numbers may get worse in his absence.

It is possible Hicks might be back for that game, but it would be the soonest he is eligable to return.

Perhaps a small factor to consider, but I appreciate your time crafting this post so just giving some information back.

 

[dschuler]

QB - Kyler Murray
TE - Trey McBride
WR- Rashee Rice

Kyler is a locked and loaded top half QB1 that was on a lot of waiver wires.

McBride is Uber talented and a big bodied target getting a massive target share

Rashee Rice is by far the best WR on the Chiefs and we’ve seen rookie WRs breakout in the second half of the year and becoming league winners lately. He’s got Mahomes at QB which is nice as well.

 

[creepythinman]

Yes Robinson only had 2 targets in the game vs Arizona he only had 2 targets in the game vs Houston also.

The difference has been that Robinson has not caught as many of his targets with Heinicke only 27% of them compared to 81% with Ridder.

Very good point. Although if we throw out the headache game, the difference is a little more glaring: 5.33 targets/gm before Heinicke announced starter and 3.67 targets/gm after Heinicke (31% reduction). As for the reception % drop, Bijan's is going to be lower than average due to a good number his targets coming on targets split out wide. I see his numbers being so low with Heinicke because Heinicke is just not an accurate quarterback. He has a pressured completion percentage of 20% compared to 59% for Ridder. As so many of RBs come from dump offs with the QB under pressure, Heinicke's poor accuracy definitely hurts Bijan. Heinicke is also a QB who loves to throw deep. By the time he's made it to the bottom of his progressions (which Heinicke does poorly) to throw to a RB, Bijan's separation from coverage will also have diminished -- making the pass and the catch more difficult.

 

[Biabreakable]

Yes Robinson only had 2 targets in the game vs Arizona he only had 2 targets in the game vs Houston also.

The difference has been that Robinson has not caught as many of his targets with Heinicke only 27% of them compared to 81% with Ridder.

Very good point. Although if we throw out the headache game, the difference is a little more glaring: 5.33 targets/gm before Heinicke announced starter and 3.67 targets/gm after Heinicke (31% reduction). As for the reception % drop, Bijan's is going to be lower than average due to a good number his targets coming on targets split out wide. I see his numbers being so low with Heinicke because Heinicke is just not an accurate quarterback. He has a pressured completion percentage of 20% compared to 59% for Ridder. As so many of RBs come from dump offs with the QB under pressure, Heinicke's poor accuracy definitely hurts Bijan. Heinicke is also a QB who loves to throw deep. By the time he's made it to the bottom of his progressions (which Heinicke does poorly) to throw to a RB, Bijan's separation from coverage will also have diminished -- making the pass and the catch more difficult.

Hmm not sure why our math does not line up on the targets.

I discarded the one touch game.

The game vs Tennessee both QBs played some snaps. 12 attempts for Ridder 21 for Heinicke IIRC. Not looking at it right now.

I didn't factor for that. Just pulling data from PFR.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

Tua managers -- are you worried about his playoff schedule? NYJ, Dallas, @Baltimore. And we've seen him underperform in tough matchups this season.

I'm in a 14-teamer so there's crap on the WW (during Tua's bye last week, I was stuck starting Heinecke). Would love to execute a trade for a high upside guy like Murray, but that might be tough to pull off

 

[Tanner9919]

I'm not sure I follow the plan of naming the players who you should trade for..aren't the teams who own those players noticing an increase in trade requests and inquiries?
hey you should be looking to trade for Sam LaPorta!! hey, um, don't you tnhink the LaPorta owner knows this already and isn't willing to dump him for a bag of chips, you're going to pay dearly to get such players as LaPorta And Bijan.
as a Bijan owner, anyone inquiring about him will have to give up a lot to get him. two weeks ago was the time, not not. easy schedule, usage is steadily on the rise, cakewalk 2nd half schedule could be an absolute beast - he is one already in a PART TIME role!
but to assume that hey I"m gonna trade for Bijan and it's going to be easy to make a deal is nonsense. you should be looking for players like ty chandler on waivers. or tyjae spears 2nd half ability , titans have to show ownership they look good for 2024 , have a young RB to rely on, before they go to the draft. that jackwagon Vrabel's job is on the line. he HAS to start using Spears more and more and more.
try to find today's 'lesser' players who will be stars for your fantasy playoff runs. maybe luke musgrave who is quietly heating up. or jerome ford NOW as DW is on IR for a bit. Ford is on a tear and will be leaned on like crazy.he's legit, real-deal type stuff. soon to be a 25 carry/gm workload type guy.
Give Jaylen Warren a look-in. trade for his arse right now. pitt has committed to running the $hit out of the ball.
Jacobi Meyers does it week in week out.
pick up the browns kicker they're always going to be in FG range no matter who they play that o-line is bulletproof.

but to think you're going to be able to trade for the LaPorta and Bijans of the world without giving up the kitchen sink is preposterous. takes 2 to tango, and the holder of the goods you want, knows exactly what he has.

 

[kyoun1e]

I'm not sure I follow the plan of naming the players who you should trade for..aren't the teams who own those players noticing an increase in trade requests and inquiries?
hey you should be looking to trade for Sam LaPorta!! hey, um, don't you tnhink the LaPorta owner knows this already and isn't willing to dump him for a bag of chips, you're going to pay dearly to get such players as LaPorta And Bijan.
as a Bijan owner, anyone inquiring about him will have to give up a lot to get him. two weeks ago was the time, not not. easy schedule, usage is steadily on the rise, cakewalk 2nd half schedule could be an absolute beast - he is one already in a PART TIME role!
but to assume that hey I"m gonna trade for Bijan and it's going to be easy to make a deal is nonsense. you should be looking for players like ty chandler on waivers. or tyjae spears 2nd half ability , titans have to show ownership they look good for 2024 , have a young RB to rely on, before they go to the draft. that jackwagon Vrabel's job is on the line. he HAS to start using Spears more and more and more.
try to find today's 'lesser' players who will be stars for your fantasy playoff runs. maybe luke musgrave who is quietly heating up. or jerome ford NOW as DW is on IR for a bit. Ford is on a tear and will be leaned on like crazy.he's legit, real-deal type stuff. soon to be a 25 carry/gm workload type guy.
Give Jaylen Warren a look-in. trade for his arse right now. pitt has committed to running the $hit out of the ball.
Jacobi Meyers does it week in week out.
pick up the browns kicker they're always going to be in FG range no matter who they play that o-line is bulletproof.

but to think you're going to be able to trade for the LaPorta and Bijans of the world without giving up the kitchen sink is preposterous. takes 2 to tango, and the holder of the goods you want, knows exactly what he has.

A Bijan owner who may be 3-7 at this point, sick of A. Smith's shenanigan's, and on the outside looking in on a playoff spot could be looking at Bijan's bye week like he's staring into the abyss. Could be a time to cut the chord, get a solid player to fill the bye week void and get a needed W. Probably would be a two for one deal for sure.

A desperate Bijan owner could bite.

A Bijan owner who is 7-3 on the other hand?

No, for the reasons you outline above.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Sitting 10-0 in my primary league after this week with a Week 15 playoff bye secure.

Sidebar: I have played roughly 64 leagues in the last 20 years. Lightwork compared to some of the folks around here (@barackdhouse you are a machine.)

Not every one of them were competitive, a couple times it was just random cohorts (girls soccer team dads, work leagues.) I was once in a league of people who were into Harry Potter - I'm not, I was referred in by my son lol.

Have never gone undefeated, or played in a league where someone went unbeaten. Had a 2-loss season in that Hogwarts League but that was bc it was IDP with KR yardage and I cleaned up on cornering the DB-KR market haha. Had several 2-loss seasons.

In my primary league, which has always been competitive experienced managers, the league record is 13 wins (11-3, bye, win, championship to finish 13-3.) My best was 12-4 (10-4 & won title.)

Maybe it's more common n smaller leagues, I have played in a 10-teamer less than a handful of times and 8-team once. Most common by far is 12, a few 14s, and a couple ball breaker 16s.

 

[creepythinman]

but to think you're going to be able to trade for the LaPorta and Bijans of the world without giving up the kitchen sink is preposterous. takes 2 to tango, and the holder of the goods you want, knows exactly what he has.

I actually said you should be TRADING AWAY LaPorta.

But regardless, almost anyone is obtainable.

 

[creepythinman]

I'm not sure I follow the plan of naming the players who you should trade for..aren't the teams who own those players noticing an increase in trade requests and inquiries?
hey you should be looking to trade for Sam LaPorta!! hey, um, don't you tnhink the LaPorta owner knows this already and isn't willing to dump him for a bag of chips, you're going to pay dearly to get such players as LaPorta And Bijan.
as a Bijan owner, anyone inquiring about him will have to give up a lot to get him. two weeks ago was the time, not not. easy schedule, usage is steadily on the rise, cakewalk 2nd half schedule could be an absolute beast - he is one already in a PART TIME role!
but to assume that hey I"m gonna trade for Bijan and it's going to be easy to make a deal is nonsense. you should be looking for players like ty chandler on waivers. or tyjae spears 2nd half ability , titans have to show ownership they look good for 2024 , have a young RB to rely on, before they go to the draft. that jackwagon Vrabel's job is on the line. he HAS to start using Spears more and more and more.
try to find today's 'lesser' players who will be stars for your fantasy playoff runs. maybe luke musgrave who is quietly heating up. or jerome ford NOW as DW is on IR for a bit. Ford is on a tear and will be leaned on like crazy.he's legit, real-deal type stuff. soon to be a 25 carry/gm workload type guy.
Give Jaylen Warren a look-in. trade for his arse right now. pitt has committed to running the $hit out of the ball.
Jacobi Meyers does it week in week out.
pick up the browns kicker they're always going to be in FG range no matter who they play that o-line is bulletproof.

but to think you're going to be able to trade for the LaPorta and Bijans of the world without giving up the kitchen sink is preposterous. takes 2 to tango, and the holder of the goods you want, knows exactly what he has.

A Bijan owner who may be 3-7 at this point, sick of A. Smith's shenanigan's, and on the outside looking in on a playoff spot could be looking at Bijan's bye week like he's staring into the abyss. Could be a time to cut the chord, get a solid player to fill the bye week void and get a needed W. Probably would be a two for one deal for sure.

A desperate Bijan owner could bite.

A Bijan owner who is 7-3 on the other hand?

No, for the reasons you outline above.

Bijan was just traded away with Burrow by a 5-5 team in a league of mine to a 4-6 team for Breece Hall and Aiyuk.

 

[the spanker]

I'm not sure I follow the plan of naming the players who you should trade for..aren't the teams who own those players noticing an increase in trade requests and inquiries?
hey you should be looking to trade for Sam LaPorta!! hey, um, don't you tnhink the LaPorta owner knows this already and isn't willing to dump him for a bag of chips, you're going to pay dearly to get such players as LaPorta And Bijan.
as a Bijan owner, anyone inquiring about him will have to give up a lot to get him. two weeks ago was the time, not not. easy schedule, usage is steadily on the rise, cakewalk 2nd half schedule could be an absolute beast - he is one already in a PART TIME role!
but to assume that hey I"m gonna trade for Bijan and it's going to be easy to make a deal is nonsense. you should be looking for players like ty chandler on waivers. or tyjae spears 2nd half ability , titans have to show ownership they look good for 2024 , have a young RB to rely on, before they go to the draft. that jackwagon Vrabel's job is on the line. he HAS to start using Spears more and more and more.
try to find today's 'lesser' players who will be stars for your fantasy playoff runs. maybe luke musgrave who is quietly heating up. or jerome ford NOW as DW is on IR for a bit. Ford is on a tear and will be leaned on like crazy.he's legit, real-deal type stuff. soon to be a 25 carry/gm workload type guy.
Give Jaylen Warren a look-in. trade for his arse right now. pitt has committed to running the $hit out of the ball.
Jacobi Meyers does it week in week out.
pick up the browns kicker they're always going to be in FG range no matter who they play that o-line is bulletproof.

but to think you're going to be able to trade for the LaPorta and Bijans of the world without giving up the kitchen sink is preposterous. takes 2 to tango, and the holder of the goods you want, knows exactly what he has.

Speaking of the brown's kicker, who do you like better, him, Prater (ARI) or Moody kicker ROS?

I'm worried about weather in the future for Browns kicker but these two other kickers will play in better weather.

 

[kyoun1e]

I'm not sure I follow the plan of naming the players who you should trade for..aren't the teams who own those players noticing an increase in trade requests and inquiries?
hey you should be looking to trade for Sam LaPorta!! hey, um, don't you tnhink the LaPorta owner knows this already and isn't willing to dump him for a bag of chips, you're going to pay dearly to get such players as LaPorta And Bijan.
as a Bijan owner, anyone inquiring about him will have to give up a lot to get him. two weeks ago was the time, not not. easy schedule, usage is steadily on the rise, cakewalk 2nd half schedule could be an absolute beast - he is one already in a PART TIME role!
but to assume that hey I"m gonna trade for Bijan and it's going to be easy to make a deal is nonsense. you should be looking for players like ty chandler on waivers. or tyjae spears 2nd half ability , titans have to show ownership they look good for 2024 , have a young RB to rely on, before they go to the draft. that jackwagon Vrabel's job is on the line. he HAS to start using Spears more and more and more.
try to find today's 'lesser' players who will be stars for your fantasy playoff runs. maybe luke musgrave who is quietly heating up. or jerome ford NOW as DW is on IR for a bit. Ford is on a tear and will be leaned on like crazy.he's legit, real-deal type stuff. soon to be a 25 carry/gm workload type guy.
Give Jaylen Warren a look-in. trade for his arse right now. pitt has committed to running the $hit out of the ball.
Jacobi Meyers does it week in week out.
pick up the browns kicker they're always going to be in FG range no matter who they play that o-line is bulletproof.

but to think you're going to be able to trade for the LaPorta and Bijans of the world without giving up the kitchen sink is preposterous. takes 2 to tango, and the holder of the goods you want, knows exactly what he has.

A Bijan owner who may be 3-7 at this point, sick of A. Smith's shenanigan's, and on the outside looking in on a playoff spot could be looking at Bijan's bye week like he's staring into the abyss. Could be a time to cut the chord, get a solid player to fill the bye week void and get a needed W. Probably would be a two for one deal for sure.

A desperate Bijan owner could bite.

A Bijan owner who is 7-3 on the other hand?

No, for the reasons you outline above.

Bijan was just traded away with Burrow by a 5-5 team in a league of mine to a 4-6 team for Breece Hall and Aiyuk.

Think that's an even trade, maybe even favor the B. Hall side.

 

[creepythinman]

A Bijan owner who may be 3-7 at this point, sick of A. Smith's shenanigan's, and on the outside looking in on a playoff spot could be looking at Bijan's bye week like he's staring into the abyss. Could be a time to cut the chord, get a solid player to fill the bye week void and get a needed W. Probably would be a two for one deal for sure.

A desperate Bijan owner could bite.

A Bijan owner who is 7-3 on the other hand?

No, for the reasons you outline above.

Bijan was just traded away with Burrow by a 5-5 team in a league of mine to a 4-6 team for Breece Hall and Aiyuk.

Think that's an even trade, maybe even favor the B. Hall side.

Fair trade rest of season for the RBs, sure. In the playoffs, Breece Hall has a decent matchup Week 16 against WAS. But he faces CLE in Week 17 in the championship week. CLE has allowed the lowest fantasy points per carry and 4th lowest fantasy points per target to RBs. Clear edge to Bijan there. I'd hate to rely on Breece with a title on the line.