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Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

It seems like there's a fairly deep group of (relatively) young QBs out there with some upside. How do you rank guys like VY, Freeman, Sanchez, Moore, Campbell, Leinart, Alex Smith, etc? All have some concerns, but each have some real upside too.

Am I crazy for being high on Campbell this year? Or that Freeman could make the leap with those two young WRs and no fear in putting the ball up for them?

Which of these guys do you trust most (like, for example, I had to pick one as my QB1 in a startup dynasty :sick:) - and which do you think has the most long term upside?

 
corpcow said:
It seems like there's a fairly deep group of (relatively) young QBs out there with some upside. How do you rank guys like VY, Freeman, Sanchez, Moore, Campbell, Leinart, Alex Smith, etc? All have some concerns, but each have some real upside too.Am I crazy for being high on Campbell this year? Or that Freeman could make the leap with those two young WRs and no fear in putting the ball up for them?Which of these guys do you trust most (like, for example, I had to pick one as my QB1 in a startup dynasty :sick:) - and which do you think has the most long term upside?
Click to expand...
If it is just that list, I'd probably go with Vince Young. He put up borderline QB1 numbers when he was a starter (could be a little different depending on the league scoring). If you want safe, then Sanchez is the pick because he is the surest bet of that list to be a long-term NFL starting QB. But his upside is limited by the style of play of the Jets. I am not high on Freeman this year because of the rookie WRs and little else behind them. Also, Freeman has a long way to go himself and this year is too soon in my opinion. If you can go outside that list, I'd rather have Stafford or Henne than most of the above.
 
SSOG said:
After a recent lowball offer from an owner looking to buy Fitzgerald low now that Warner has retired, I was looking up where Fitzgerald rates against history so far. A lot of you might have seen the numbers of where Fitzgerald ranks through X seasons (top 10 receivers in fantasy points through 6 seasons = Moss, Rice, Holt, Harrison, Fitzgerald, Alworth, Rison, Sterling Sharpe, Owens, and Charley Taylor- pretty heady company)... but I wanted to look at it from a different perspective. I wanted to see how unprecedented it was to have a player who was THIS proven and THIS good, but still THIS young. Fitzgerald just completed his age 26 seasons, so I compiled a list of the best stats through age 26 in NFL history. Take a look-

Receptions-

Randy Moss (525)

Larry Fitzgerald (523)

Andre Rison (394)

Receiving Yards-

Randy Moss (8375)

Larry Fitzgerald (7067)

Lance Alworth (5651)

Receiving TDs-

Randy Moss (77)

Larry Fitzgerald (59)

Lance Alworth (54)

Fantasy Points-

Randy Moss (1321.5)

Larry Fitzgerald (1066.2)

Lance Alworth (910.0)

First off, it's startling just how far ahead of everyone else Randy Moss was. The second thing I notice, though, is that Fitzgerald is just as far ahead of third place. Andre Rison was 129 receptions behind Fitzgerald through age 26. Alworth was 1416 yards behind Fitz. Alworth was also 156 fantasy points behind Fitz through age 26. That's the fantasy equivalent of Santonio Holmes last season.

To put this into even more perspective... Brandon Marshall was 25 last year, so his 26-year old season is coming up. Let's say that Brandon Marshall becomes an unstoppable beast and manages to go for a record-shattering 3200 yards and 30 TDs. If he manages to do that, Larry Fitzgerald will STILL have scored more fantasy points by age 27. If Michael Crabtree wants to catch Larry Fitzgerald through age 26, he'll need to put up 1610 yards and 14 TDs. Every year. FOR THE NEXT FOUR YEARS. And even that will still leave him 6.2 fantasy points behind Fitz.

F&L did a post on his blog last year questioning whether Fitzgerald might be worth the very first pick in a dynasty start-up. Personally, I think the question is every bit as valid today after Fitzgerald put up yet another top-5 fantasy finish despite the clear erosion of Kurt Warner's abilities. So, is there anyone else out there who would consider taking Larry Fitzgerald with the #1 overall pick of a new startup?
Click to expand...
I have yet to do a dynasty startup draft so I can't speak to that although I can say I tend to favor elite WR's to RB's because are much safer bets IMO. I think you could probably start with the #1, trade down to around 5 or 6 and still get Fitz plus some more. I will say I am glad that the switch to Leinart has some scared enough to deal what was once an untouchable asset. This offseason I made a deal that many said I overpaid on, but I wanted Fitz. I see him as pretty much a lock for top 5 numbers every year regardless of the situation around him. He is that good. I gave

Sidney Rice

Brent Celek

1.06 rookie pick

I got

Fitzgerald

 
SSOG said:
After a recent lowball offer from an owner looking to buy Fitzgerald low now that Warner has retired, I was looking up where Fitzgerald rates against history so far. A lot of you might have seen the numbers of where Fitzgerald ranks through X seasons (top 10 receivers in fantasy points through 6 seasons = Moss, Rice, Holt, Harrison, Fitzgerald, Alworth, Rison, Sterling Sharpe, Owens, and Charley Taylor- pretty heady company)... but I wanted to look at it from a different perspective. I wanted to see how unprecedented it was to have a player who was THIS proven and THIS good, but still THIS young. Fitzgerald just completed his age 26 seasons, so I compiled a list of the best stats through age 26 in NFL history. Take a look-

Receptions-

Randy Moss (525)

Larry Fitzgerald (523)

Andre Rison (394)

Receiving Yards-

Randy Moss (8375)

Larry Fitzgerald (7067)

Lance Alworth (5651)

Receiving TDs-

Randy Moss (77)

Larry Fitzgerald (59)

Lance Alworth (54)

Fantasy Points-

Randy Moss (1321.5)

Larry Fitzgerald (1066.2)

Lance Alworth (910.0)

First off, it's startling just how far ahead of everyone else Randy Moss was. The second thing I notice, though, is that Fitzgerald is just as far ahead of third place. Andre Rison was 129 receptions behind Fitzgerald through age 26. Alworth was 1416 yards behind Fitz. Alworth was also 156 fantasy points behind Fitz through age 26. That's the fantasy equivalent of Santonio Holmes last season.

To put this into even more perspective... Brandon Marshall was 25 last year, so his 26-year old season is coming up. Let's say that Brandon Marshall becomes an unstoppable beast and manages to go for a record-shattering 3200 yards and 30 TDs. If he manages to do that, Larry Fitzgerald will STILL have scored more fantasy points by age 27. If Michael Crabtree wants to catch Larry Fitzgerald through age 26, he'll need to put up 1610 yards and 14 TDs. Every year. FOR THE NEXT FOUR YEARS. And even that will still leave him 6.2 fantasy points behind Fitz.

F&L did a post on his blog last year questioning whether Fitzgerald might be worth the very first pick in a dynasty start-up. Personally, I think the question is every bit as valid today after Fitzgerald put up yet another top-5 fantasy finish despite the clear erosion of Kurt Warner's abilities. So, is there anyone else out there who would consider taking Larry Fitzgerald with the #1 overall pick of a new startup?
Click to expand...
Not to diminish his accomplishments, but it doesn't hurt that Fitzgerald was younger than most when he entered the league so in many cases we're comparing the cumulative stats of 6 seasons of Fitzgerald vs. 4 or 5 seasons of other guys.
 
corpcow said:
It seems like there's a fairly deep group of (relatively) young QBs out there with some upside. How do you rank guys like VY, Freeman, Sanchez, Moore, Campbell, Leinart, Alex Smith, etc? All have some concerns, but each have some real upside too.Am I crazy for being high on Campbell this year? Or that Freeman could make the leap with those two young WRs and no fear in putting the ball up for them?Which of these guys do you trust most (like, for example, I had to pick one as my QB1 in a startup dynasty :sick:) - and which do you think has the most long term upside?
Click to expand...
Think I'd rank them:VYFreemanMooreSanchezSmithCampbellLeinartAnd if I was in the midst of a startup, and didn't have a QB yet, I think I'd make some moves and try and get 3 of these guys. Team up Young and Smith, play the matchups, and have a young guy like Freeman or Sanchez for down the road. I may be over-rating Freeman, but I liked the way he looked last year when given the job. He wasn't nearly as raw as we were led to believe last spring, and I think he may be underrated. I don't think he's a fantasy starter this year, but I think he has a high ceiling, and is a lot closer to putting up numbers than people realize. Lack of weapons is an issue, but that can change quickly. My bigger concern is that he plays on the Bucs. I am not sure that team is dedicated to putting a quality team on the field. For fantasy production next year, I'd bet on Young, Smith, Moore from that list, but Smith and Moore are like Leinart, if they have a down year, they might be backups.
 
massraider said:
corpcow said:
It seems like there's a fairly deep group of (relatively) young QBs out there with some upside. How do you rank guys like VY, Freeman, Sanchez, Moore, Campbell, Leinart, Alex Smith, etc? All have some concerns, but each have some real upside too.Am I crazy for being high on Campbell this year? Or that Freeman could make the leap with those two young WRs and no fear in putting the ball up for them?Which of these guys do you trust most (like, for example, I had to pick one as my QB1 in a startup dynasty :sick:) - and which do you think has the most long term upside?
Click to expand...
Think I'd rank them:VYFreemanMooreSanchezSmithCampbellLeinartAnd if I was in the midst of a startup, and didn't have a QB yet, I think I'd make some moves and try and get 3 of these guys. Team up Young and Smith, play the matchups, and have a young guy like Freeman or Sanchez for down the road. I may be over-rating Freeman, but I liked the way he looked last year when given the job. He wasn't nearly as raw as we were led to believe last spring, and I think he may be underrated. I don't think he's a fantasy starter this year, but I think he has a high ceiling, and is a lot closer to putting up numbers than people realize. Lack of weapons is an issue, but that can change quickly. My bigger concern is that he plays on the Bucs. I am not sure that team is dedicated to putting a quality team on the field. For fantasy production next year, I'd bet on Young, Smith, Moore from that list, but Smith and Moore are like Leinart, if they have a down year, they might be backups.
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I don't want to make this too much about my draft - but Henne, Palmer and Sanchez have all gone this round before me. And I do have 1.05 which I'm targeting Bradford with. That said, I do appreciate the general conversations around these guys... and would love other thoughts. Sanchez has gottenn a lot of hype but as a Jets fan he was downright AWFUL at times last year. We know they want to run the ball, but then he also does have some nice tools around him and will have a good running game to take pressure off.
 
corpcow said:
It seems like there's a fairly deep group of (relatively) young QBs out there with some upside. How do you rank guys like VY, Freeman, Sanchez, Moore, Campbell, Leinart, Alex Smith, etc? All have some concerns, but each have some real upside too.Am I crazy for being high on Campbell this year? Or that Freeman could make the leap with those two young WRs and no fear in putting the ball up for them?Which of these guys do you trust most (like, for example, I had to pick one as my QB1 in a startup dynasty :sick:) - and which do you think has the most long term upside?
Click to expand...
There's almost nothing in the stats to differentiate Freeman/Sanchez/Henne/Stafford, so at this point ranking those guys is almost entirely a gut call. I think Henne offers the best combination of risk/reward and is most likely to finish in the top 10 this season (though I think Stafford also has a chance). Having said that, there's so little separation among this group right now that it wouldn't surprise me to see them ranked in any possible order 3 years from now. I put Leinart/Moore/Smith/VY/Campbell in a different category because those guys have been in the league for years and have yet to emerge as reliable starters in the NFL and in FF. I'm more pessimistic about this group as a whole and would be reluctant to draft any of these guys in a dynasty league.
 
FreeBaGeL said:
Not to diminish his accomplishments, but it doesn't hurt that Fitzgerald was younger than most when he entered the league so in many cases we're comparing the cumulative stats of 6 seasons of Fitzgerald vs. 4 or 5 seasons of other guys.
Click to expand...
No, it doesn't hurt at all. That's why I also posted the list of the top 10 fantasy receivers through 6 seasons (so everyone's on equal footing, experience-wise)- Moss, Rice, Holt, Harrison, Fitzgerald, Alworth, Rison, Sterling Sharpe, Owens, and Charley Taylor. Fitzgerald still rates ludicrously high, and he's still surrounded by uberstuds who couldn't be stopped by anything other than injury.The point of looking at it by age, though, was pointing out that by the time Jerry Rice, Torry Holt, and Terrell Owens had accumulated as much track record as Fitzgerald, they were 29. In Marvin Harrison's 7th season, he was THIRTY. Fitzgerald is 27. If we assume that age is the limiting factor on a player's fantasy career (and I do believe that it is), then Larry Fitzgerald has three more seasons of expected production than Marvin Harrison did by the time Harrison was this proven of an asset. He's basically a 30 year old Marvin Harrison in a 27 year old's body. Starting with his age 27 season, Marvin Harrison accumulated 786 more points of VBD. Starting with his age 30 seasons, he "only" accumulated 438 more points of VBD. The difference between a 27 year old Harrison and a 30 year old Harrison was a whopping 348 VBD. As I said, other than Randy Moss, no other receiver has ever been this good and this proven at this young of an age... and unless Dez Bryant becomes an instant stud like Fitzgerald, or unless Brandon Marshall goes for 4,000 yards this year, or unless Michael Crabtree starts averaging 1,600 yards a year, there's not anybody in the NFL today that can catch him, either.To look at it from another angle... Fitzgerald has averaged 60 VBD a year since he entered the league (including his first season as a rookie and his third season where he was hurt). He's averaged 86.5 VBD a year in his four healthy/prime seasons. If you pro-rate his 3rd year stats, then he's averaged 80.8 VBD a season since his second year. No matter how you slice it, Fitz's VBD average is somewhere in the 60-90 range. If we assume that he maintains that same average going forward, and we assume that he plays 6-8 more seasons (that would take him through his age 32-34 season), then Fitzgerald might have anywhere from 360 to 720 more career VBD left in front of him. For a little bit of perspective... Shaun Alexander's career VBD was 743. Priest Holmes' was 673. Clinton Portis's was 597. Larry Johnson's was 365. Ricky Williams was 445. And these career VBDs all include that RB's breakout season- i.e. by the time they were proven enough for you to draft them in the top 3 of a startup, you'd already missed out on a huge chunk of that career VBD (generally 100-200 points). Drafting Larry Fitzgerald today is much like drafting Clinton Portis his rookie season, except without the risk because Fitzgerald is a proven commodity and Portis was just a random rookie. Larry Fitzgerald's fantasy career from this point forward could conceivably wind up being more valuable than Priest Holmes' fantasy career from start to finish. Unless one of these young uberstuds winds up being the next Marshall Faulk (1160 career VBD) or LaDainian Tomlinson (1285 career VBD), I think it's perfectly conceivable for Larry Fitzgerald's career from this point forward to outshine theirs. If Adrian Peterson is "just" the next Shaun Alexander ("just" is in quotes because Shaun Alexander was still an absolute uberstud), then Fitzgerald is almost certainly the more valuable asset.
 
EBF said:
I put Leinart/Moore/Smith/VY/Campbell in a different category because those guys have been in the league for years and have yet to emerge as reliable starters in the NFL and in FF. I'm more pessimistic about this group as a whole and would be reluctant to draft any of these guys in a dynasty league.
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While this is a good point, it seems almost unfair to lump Leinart in here as he spent a couple seasons behind a likely HOF QB. We seem to have forgotten that it used to be normal for a QB to take a few years before he was productive, and we have a tendency to write off QB's too quickly. I also like Campbell as a backup...he'll never be a stud, so his fantasy value is low, but he's better then generally given credit for in NFL terms and will be around a while. Not a guy to reach for, but if all else fails he's a nice backup while you wait for an opportunity to aquire another young QB with more upside.

 
Fear & Loathing said:
OnThInIcE911 said:
I may be a homer but I think Gresham could be the next Gates.
Click to expand...
You're a :shrug: . Big time.
Click to expand...
Gates is extreme but it would not shock me if he becomes a top 5 TE. He is an amazing athlete. The guy is a monster with tons of athleticism. I got to watch him play up close and personal and he reminds me of another former great TE, Keith Jackson.Add - I will be curious to see how much of the game plan he becomes a part of. I think 45/650/6 is about what to expect in his rookie season.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
renesauz said:
EBF said:
I put Leinart/Moore/Smith/VY/Campbell in a different category because those guys have been in the league for years and have yet to emerge as reliable starters in the NFL and in FF. I'm more pessimistic about this group as a whole and would be reluctant to draft any of these guys in a dynasty league.
Click to expand...
While this is a good point, it seems almost unfair to lump Leinart in here as he spent a couple seasons behind a likely HOF QB. We seem to have forgotten that it used to be normal for a QB to take a few years before he was productive, and we have a tendency to write off QB's too quickly. I also like Campbell as a backup...he'll never be a stud, so his fantasy value is low, but he's better then generally given credit for in NFL terms and will be around a while. Not a guy to reach for, but if all else fails he's a nice backup while you wait for an opportunity to aquire another young QB with more upside.
Click to expand...
Campbell is the definition of replaceable in NFL and FF terms. I would rather have a backup who had the upside to become an every week starter. Since you're never going to play the guy unless your starter gets injured, the fact that he's a safe bet to put up solid QB2 numbers is pretty irrelevant. He might as well be scoring nothing. I like that Henne/Stafford/Sanchez/Freeman group as backups because one or more of those guys might eventually become a Brees/Romo/Rodgers level player. If they bust, you can always find another top QB prospect to fill their spot on your bench.

 
The Real Hipster Doofus said:
SSOG said:
After a recent lowball offer from an owner looking to buy Fitzgerald low now that Warner has retired, I was looking up where Fitzgerald rates against history so far. A lot of you might have seen the numbers of where Fitzgerald ranks through X seasons (top 10 receivers in fantasy points through 6 seasons = Moss, Rice, Holt, Harrison, Fitzgerald, Alworth, Rison, Sterling Sharpe, Owens, and Charley Taylor- pretty heady company)... but I wanted to look at it from a different perspective. I wanted to see how unprecedented it was to have a player who was THIS proven and THIS good, but still THIS young. Fitzgerald just completed his age 26 seasons, so I compiled a list of the best stats through age 26 in NFL history. Take a look-

Receptions-

Randy Moss (525)

Larry Fitzgerald (523)

Andre Rison (394)

Receiving Yards-

Randy Moss (8375)

Larry Fitzgerald (7067)

Lance Alworth (5651)

Receiving TDs-

Randy Moss (77)

Larry Fitzgerald (59)

Lance Alworth (54)

Fantasy Points-

Randy Moss (1321.5)

Larry Fitzgerald (1066.2)

Lance Alworth (910.0)

First off, it's startling just how far ahead of everyone else Randy Moss was. The second thing I notice, though, is that Fitzgerald is just as far ahead of third place. Andre Rison was 129 receptions behind Fitzgerald through age 26. Alworth was 1416 yards behind Fitz. Alworth was also 156 fantasy points behind Fitz through age 26. That's the fantasy equivalent of Santonio Holmes last season.

To put this into even more perspective... Brandon Marshall was 25 last year, so his 26-year old season is coming up. Let's say that Brandon Marshall becomes an unstoppable beast and manages to go for a record-shattering 3200 yards and 30 TDs. If he manages to do that, Larry Fitzgerald will STILL have scored more fantasy points by age 27. If Michael Crabtree wants to catch Larry Fitzgerald through age 26, he'll need to put up 1610 yards and 14 TDs. Every year. FOR THE NEXT FOUR YEARS. And even that will still leave him 6.2 fantasy points behind Fitz.

F&L did a post on his blog last year questioning whether Fitzgerald might be worth the very first pick in a dynasty start-up. Personally, I think the question is every bit as valid today after Fitzgerald put up yet another top-5 fantasy finish despite the clear erosion of Kurt Warner's abilities. So, is there anyone else out there who would consider taking Larry Fitzgerald with the #1 overall pick of a new startup?
Click to expand...
I have yet to do a dynasty startup draft so I can't speak to that although I can say I tend to favor elite WR's to RB's because are much safer bets IMO. I think you could probably start with the #1, trade down to around 5 or 6 and still get Fitz plus some more. I will say I am glad that the switch to Leinart has some scared enough to deal what was once an untouchable asset. This offseason I made a deal that many said I overpaid on, but I wanted Fitz. I see him as pretty much a lock for top 5 numbers every year regardless of the situation around him. He is that good. I gave

Sidney Rice

Brent Celek

1.06 rookie pick

I got

Fitzgerald
Click to expand...
So would you say I made a mistake when I just rejected an offer of I get Fitz

I give V-Jax, Boldin and a 2011 2nd round pick

I love Fitz but I love V-Jax as well and I just can't part with V-Jax.

 
monkeysee said:
Gates is extreme but it would not shock me if he becomes a top 5 TE. He is an amazing athlete. The guy is a monster with tons of athleticism. I got to watch him play up close and personal and he reminds me of another former great TE, Keith Jackson.Add - I will be curious to see how much of the game plan he becomes a part of. I think 45/650/6 is about what to expect in his rookie season.
Click to expand...
That'd be 101 fantasy points. Only 8 rookies have ever scored 100 points- three since 1980. Shockey had 101.4 as a rookie, Cam Cleeland had 104.4, and Keith Jackson had 122.9. Gresham has the pedigree, but none of the last 9 first round TEs have scored 100. Since Keith Jackson was taken in the first in 1988, there have been 24 first round TEs, and only one of them has reached 100 (plus a second round TE reached the mark, too).I think 650/6 is a wildly optimistic projection. I think 400/4 is probably more realistic. That would still rank as one of the better rookie performances by a first round TE in the last decade.
EBF said:
Campbell is the definition of replaceable in NFL and FF terms. I would rather have a backup who had the upside to become an every week starter. Since you're never going to play the guy unless your starter gets injured, the fact that he's a safe bet to put up solid QB2 numbers is pretty irrelevant. He might as well be scoring nothing. I like that Henne/Stafford/Sanchez/Freeman group as backups because one or more of those guys might eventually become a Brees/Romo/Rodgers level player. If they bust, you can always find another top QB prospect to fill their spot on your bench.
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Agreed. QB2 numbers are so ludicrously easy to come by in dynasty. Being able to produce them doesn't really grant a player any value in and of itself.
 
SSOG said:
FreeBaGeL said:
Not to diminish his accomplishments, but it doesn't hurt that Fitzgerald was younger than most when he entered the league so in many cases we're comparing the cumulative stats of 6 seasons of Fitzgerald vs. 4 or 5 seasons of other guys.
Click to expand...
No, it doesn't hurt at all. That's why I also posted the list of the top 10 fantasy receivers through 6 seasons (so everyone's on equal footing, experience-wise)- Moss, Rice, Holt, Harrison, Fitzgerald, Alworth, Rison, Sterling Sharpe, Owens, and Charley Taylor. Fitzgerald still rates ludicrously high, and he's still surrounded by uberstuds who couldn't be stopped by anything other than injury.The point of looking at it by age, though, was pointing out that by the time Jerry Rice, Torry Holt, and Terrell Owens had accumulated as much track record as Fitzgerald, they were 29. In Marvin Harrison's 7th season, he was THIRTY. Fitzgerald is 27. If we assume that age is the limiting factor on a player's fantasy career (and I do believe that it is), then Larry Fitzgerald has three more seasons of expected production than Marvin Harrison did by the time Harrison was this proven of an asset. He's basically a 30 year old Marvin Harrison in a 27 year old's body. Starting with his age 27 season, Marvin Harrison accumulated 786 more points of VBD. Starting with his age 30 seasons, he "only" accumulated 438 more points of VBD. The difference between a 27 year old Harrison and a 30 year old Harrison was a whopping 348 VBD. As I said, other than Randy Moss, no other receiver has ever been this good and this proven at this young of an age... and unless Dez Bryant becomes an instant stud like Fitzgerald, or unless Brandon Marshall goes for 4,000 yards this year, or unless Michael Crabtree starts averaging 1,600 yards a year, there's not anybody in the NFL today that can catch him, either.To look at it from another angle... Fitzgerald has averaged 60 VBD a year since he entered the league (including his first season as a rookie and his third season where he was hurt). He's averaged 86.5 VBD a year in his four healthy/prime seasons. If you pro-rate his 3rd year stats, then he's averaged 80.8 VBD a season since his second year. No matter how you slice it, Fitz's VBD average is somewhere in the 60-90 range. If we assume that he maintains that same average going forward, and we assume that he plays 6-8 more seasons (that would take him through his age 32-34 season), then Fitzgerald might have anywhere from 360 to 720 more career VBD left in front of him. For a little bit of perspective... Shaun Alexander's career VBD was 743. Priest Holmes' was 673. Clinton Portis's was 597. Larry Johnson's was 365. Ricky Williams was 445. And these career VBDs all include that RB's breakout season- i.e. by the time they were proven enough for you to draft them in the top 3 of a startup, you'd already missed out on a huge chunk of that career VBD (generally 100-200 points). Drafting Larry Fitzgerald today is much like drafting Clinton Portis his rookie season, except without the risk because Fitzgerald is a proven commodity and Portis was just a random rookie. Larry Fitzgerald's fantasy career from this point forward could conceivably wind up being more valuable than Priest Holmes' fantasy career from start to finish. Unless one of these young uberstuds winds up being the next Marshall Faulk (1160 career VBD) or LaDainian Tomlinson (1285 career VBD), I think it's perfectly conceivable for Larry Fitzgerald's career from this point forward to outshine theirs. If Adrian Peterson is "just" the next Shaun Alexander ("just" is in quotes because Shaun Alexander was still an absolute uberstud), then Fitzgerald is almost certainly the more valuable asset.
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The problem with this whole Fitzgerald study is, that moving forward, he no longer has Warner. Everything is based upon his production with Warner at QB. In his big VBD years, 2005 and 2007-2009 (where he averaged 86.5), Warner was the main QB. In 2006, even prorated for his injury, he had 44. While Leinart was just a rookie in 2006, Fitz clearly didn't produce the same that year. Until he (or another QB on AZ) proves he can be an adequate QB, it's tough to project lofty numbers in Fitgerald's future.
 
Count me in the minority of thinking that Leinart had good value right now in both dynasty and redraft.

He can be had relatively inexpensively and with that offense could do quite well. Maybe not year one, but maybe then too.

Am I fan? No. But based onwhere he was picked and the surrounding cast, I think his is undervalued.

 
monkeysee said:
Fear & Loathing said:
OnThInIcE911 said:
I may be a homer but I think Gresham could be the next Gates.
Click to expand...
You're a :homer: . Big time.
Click to expand...
Gates is extreme but it would not shock me if he becomes a top 5 TE. He is an amazing athlete. The guy is a monster with tons of athleticism. I got to watch him play up close and personal and he reminds me of another former great TE, Keith Jackson.Add - I will be curious to see how much of the game plan he becomes a part of. I think 45/650/6 is about what to expect in his rookie season.
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Agree! People are sleeping big-time on this kid's talent. I have no doubt he would have enjoyed a monstrous season for a TE this past year had he not gotten injured. His combine numbers aren't indicative of his physical ability as he is/was still recovering. By the time the season rolls around, I'd expect him to be back to 100% and his speed and athleticism will be more on display. Gates is a good comp and I love the old-school Keith Jackson comparison as well. Gresham has great hands in tight quarters (where TEs have to make their living) and is very good after the catch with very little wasted motion and he is a load to bring down in the secondary. I believe he is a lock to be a Top 4-5 TE within 3 years.
 
BuckeyeArt said:
The problem with this whole Fitzgerald study is, that moving forward, he no longer has Warner. Everything is based upon his production with Warner at QB. In his big VBD years, 2005 and 2007-2009 (where he averaged 86.5), Warner was the main QB. In 2006, even prorated for his injury, he had 44. While Leinart was just a rookie in 2006, Fitz clearly didn't produce the same that year. Until he (or another QB on AZ) proves he can be an adequate QB, it's tough to project lofty numbers in Fitgerald's future.
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First off, how quickly we forget that Kurt Warner was not always Kurt Warner. In 2005, he was playing for his 3rd team in 3 years and was considered by pretty much everyone in the league to be nothing more than a journeyman. Kurt Warner was so good in 2005 that Arizona went out and drafted Matt Leinart with a top-10 pick in the 2006 draft. Sure, in the glow of his 2008 it's easy to think of 2005 Kurt Warner as a huge asset for Fitzgerald, but that's revisionist history.Second off, Fitzgerald's numbers over the last 8 games of 2006 (his "off" season) would project out to 1220/8. With a rookie QB under center, and coming back from injury. Is Matt Leinart 2010 as good as Kurt Warner 2008? Probably not, but I'd be willing to bet he's better than Matt Leinart 2006.

Third off, Kurt Warner was, shall we say, moderately ungood last season. There's a reason why Fitzgerald's yards per receptions have steadily increased his entire career (13.4, 13.7, 13.7, 14.1, 14.9) until falling down to a brutal 11.3 last season... and that reason wasn't Larry Fitzgerald. Warner could no longer get him the ball down the field. That's why Warner's out of the league today. Again, replacing Kurt Warner 2008 is a very, very tall order. Replacing Kurt Warner 2009, though? Not so much.

Fourth off, don't forget that Anquan Boldin is no longer around to hog looks. The tougher coverages are nothing to sweat as Fitzgerald eats tough coverages for breakfast. After the ball is snapped, though, who is Leinart going to look to other than Fitzgerald? Breaston? Doucet? I don't think so. Fitz is still going to get his 160+ targets like he always does, and even a total scrub can be a fantasy stud with that kind of workload (witness Chris Chambers).

At the end of the day, Larry Fitzgerald is the most talented WR in football, he's produced unmatched numbers with dreck at QB before (including Mr. Warner, who once upon a time was nothing but leftovers), he's produced the equivalent of a 50-VBD season (on a per-game basis) with rookie Matt Leinart (so a 60-VBD season with seasoned vet Leinart should be totally achievable), and he's one of three guys that's a mortal lock to pull down 160 targets every single year. Terrell Owens has excelled with every single QB he's played with. Randy Moss was bad in Oakland, but he still managed 32 VBD his first season there. I think anyone who is downgrading Fitzgerald one iota because of Matt Leinart is off base.

 
Also, rather than reinventing the wheel, there was a lot of discussion of Larry Fitzgerald during last season. The discussion starts right around here, and I'll copy some of the relevant quotes over for anyone who doesn't feel like wading through the entire discussion:

SSOG said:
Anyway, your Fitzgerald question is easy enough to answer. In '04, Josh McCown started 4 games. In those 4 games, Fitzgerald averaged 5.8 grabs for 86.3 yards and .83 TDs- that's 93/1380/13 over a full season. With Josh McCown. Perhaps even more applicable, Leinart started 5 games in 2007, and Fitzgerald averaged 6.8 grabs for 89.6 yards and .2 scores (prorates to 109/1433/3). Those TD numbers are a little low, but TDs are very volatile and we're talking about a 5 game sample, so that doesn't really worry me. The important thing is that, even without Warner, Fitz is a 100/1400 kind of guy.
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Fear & Loathing said:
I think we're missing a pretty big point here, though. Kurt Warner of 2009 isn't very good, and he's certainly nowhere near the Kurt Warner of 2007-2008. In fact, it's probable that Matt Leinart would be better for Fitz's value right now.

Fitz is on pace for 100 catches, but he's also on pace for about 350 less passing yards this year, and his yards per catch is down 4.1 from last season.

Warner can't throw the ball beyond 20 yards right now, and he's turned into Capt. Checkdown (much to the delight of Tim Hightower owners in PPR leagues). Fitz can catch the ball within 20 yards, but his big plays come down the field. He needs a new QB because Warner is hurting him right now.
Click to expand...
FreeBaGeL said:
I think it's worthwhile to look at the entire body of work, not just a few games

Here are the numbers for Fitz with/without Warner

With Warner:

6.3 rec, 90.3yds, 0.7 TDs per game

Over a 16 game season, that prorates out to 101 rec, 1445 yds, 11 TDs

Without Warner:

4.6 rec, 60.9yds, 0.46 TDs per game

Over a 16 game season, that prorates out to 74 rec, 974 yds, 7 TDs

Even if we throw out his rookie season, he's still down 200+ yards and 5 TDs.

Without Warner (rookie season thrown out):

5.9rec, 77 yds, 0.41 TDs per game

Over a 16 game season, that prorates out to 94 rec, 1230 yds, 6 TDs

Keep in mind I'm posting this as a Fitzgerald dynasty owner.
Click to expand...
SSOG said:
I think my comparison was a much fairer comparison. Even if you throw out Fitzgerald's rookie year, you're still leaving in LEINART'S rookie year. Throw out Fitz's rookie year and Leinart's rookie year, and the numbers are basically a wash with/without Warner. Leinart showed in year 2 that Fitz's production with him in year 1 was flukish.

Besides, the only reason we're doing these with/without Warner splits is because Warner was awesome in 2008. Prior to 2008, Warner was viewed as just a journeyman replacement-level QB... so the splits really equate to "with a replacement level QB vs. with a sub-replacement level QB".

tl;dr- Very interesting numbers, but 94/1230/6 is still impressive, and I think it's far more relevant how Fitzgerald performed with McCown and a 2nd year Leinart than how he performed with Navarre and a 1st year Leinart. I see no reason to downgrade Fitzgerald from #1 even with the pending QB uncertainty.
Click to expand...
 
SSOG said:
First off, how quickly we forget that Kurt Warner was not always Kurt Warner. In 2005, he was playing for his 3rd team in 3 years and was considered by pretty much everyone in the league to be nothing more than a journeyman. Kurt Warner was so good in 2005 that Arizona went out and drafted Matt Leinart with a top-10 pick in the 2006 draft. Sure, in the glow of his 2008 it's easy to think of 2005 Kurt Warner as a huge asset for Fitzgerald, but that's revisionist history.
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None of that matters. Who cares what everyone thought of Warner before he got to Arizona. It doesn't have anything to do with your projections. Fitz still put up his best numbers with Warner and not with Leinart. Just because Warner did as well as he did doesn't mean Leinart will also.
Second off, Fitzgerald's numbers over the last 8 games of 2006 (his "off" season) would project out to 1220/8. With a rookie QB under center, and coming back from injury. Is Matt Leinart 2010 as good as Kurt Warner 2008? Probably not, but I'd be willing to bet he's better than Matt Leinart 2006.
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So you're going to use just 8 games as a projection for the next 6-8 years? Why not throw in the more recent 6 games since 2006 that he played mostly without Warner? In those, he went 26-949-2 (a 16 game projection of 69-949-5). And, those should include a Leinart better than 2006 Leinart.
Third off, Kurt Warner was, shall we say, moderately ungood last season. There's a reason why Fitzgerald's yards per receptions have steadily increased his entire career (13.4, 13.7, 13.7, 14.1, 14.9) until falling down to a brutal 11.3 last season... and that reason wasn't Larry Fitzgerald. Warner could no longer get him the ball down the field. That's why Warner's out of the league today. Again, replacing Kurt Warner 2008 is a very, very tall order. Replacing Kurt Warner 2009, though? Not so much.
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Again, I don't see how this has anything to do with your projections. No matter how good Warner was, he was still the best QB in Arizona. Showing me that Fitz doesn't produce as well with mediocre QBs doesn't do anything but support what I was saying about him not matching his prior lofty VBD numbers in the future.
Fourth off, don't forget that Anquan Boldin is no longer around to hog looks. The tougher coverages are nothing to sweat as Fitzgerald eats tough coverages for breakfast. After the ball is snapped, though, who is Leinart going to look to other than Fitzgerald? Breaston? Doucet? I don't think so. Fitz is still going to get his 160+ targets like he always does, and even a total scrub can be a fantasy stud with that kind of workload (witness Chris Chambers).
Click to expand...
Frist, from the prior Fitz discussions and the excerpts you posted below, I think his production without Boldin can be argued either way. That's why I didn't include it as a negative. I can easily take FreeBeGel's stance and numbers he posted to show that Fitz isn't as productive without Boldin, especially with a weaker QB. Second, it wasn't about whether he would be a stud or get his 160. It was about the expectation of him producing 60-90 VBD points for the next 6-8 years.
At the end of the day, Larry Fitzgerald is the most talented WR in football, he's produced unmatched numbers with dreck at QB before (including Mr. Warner, who once upon a time was nothing but leftovers), he's produced the equivalent of a 50-VBD season (on a per-game basis) with rookie Matt Leinart (so a 60-VBD season with seasoned vet Leinart should be totally achievable), and he's one of three guys that's a mortal lock to pull down 160 targets every single year. Terrell Owens has excelled with every single QB he's played with. Randy Moss was bad in Oakland, but he still managed 32 VBD his first season there. I think anyone who is downgrading Fitzgerald one iota because of Matt Leinart is off base.
Click to expand...
Well, his 50 VBD season was a prorated 44 VBD season that you elevated to 50 and then 60 with 'seasoning' even though Leinart has failed to show any up to now. I think it's safe to say TO had some very good QBs. Same with Randy Moss, except when he was in Oakland and didn't produce at the same lofty levels. Again I'm not saying Fits won't be a top WR for the next 6-8 years. I'm saying you can't use his last 5 years with Warner and say that he will produce 60-90 VBD points for the next 6-8 years. Unless Leinart shows he can be at least adequate, I don't think that's a reasonable expectation.
 
renesauz said:
EBF said:
I put Leinart/Moore/Smith/VY/Campbell in a different category because those guys have been in the league for years and have yet to emerge as reliable starters in the NFL and in FF. I'm more pessimistic about this group as a whole and would be reluctant to draft any of these guys in a dynasty league.
Click to expand...
While this is a good point, it seems almost unfair to lump Leinart in here as he spent a couple seasons behind a likely HOF QB.
Click to expand...
Leinart had the job handed to him in 2008 and imploded in the preseason. We should absolutely hold that against him. Warner didn't beat him out in camp in 08, Leinart just left the coaches no choice but to not trust him enough to put the team in his hands.
 
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EBF said:
renesauz said:
EBF said:
I put Leinart/Moore/Smith/VY/Campbell in a different category because those guys have been in the league for years and have yet to emerge as reliable starters in the NFL and in FF. I'm more pessimistic about this group as a whole and would be reluctant to draft any of these guys in a dynasty league.
Click to expand...
While this is a good point, it seems almost unfair to lump Leinart in here as he spent a couple seasons behind a likely HOF QB. We seem to have forgotten that it used to be normal for a QB to take a few years before he was productive, and we have a tendency to write off QB's too quickly. I also like Campbell as a backup...he'll never be a stud, so his fantasy value is low, but he's better then generally given credit for in NFL terms and will be around a while. Not a guy to reach for, but if all else fails he's a nice backup while you wait for an opportunity to aquire another young QB with more upside.
Click to expand...
Campbell is the definition of replaceable in NFL and FF terms. I would rather have a backup who had the upside to become an every week starter. Since you're never going to play the guy unless your starter gets injured, the fact that he's a safe bet to put up solid QB2 numbers is pretty irrelevant. He might as well be scoring nothing. I like that Henne/Stafford/Sanchez/Freeman group as backups because one or more of those guys might eventually become a Brees/Romo/Rodgers level player. If they bust, you can always find another top QB prospect to fill their spot on your bench.
Click to expand...
I think you missed what I'm saying. :goodposting: I too, would rather have a high upside guy as a #2, and yes...Campbell is replaceable (at least in fantasy terms..you're overstating his replacability in NFL terms.) His replaceability is exactly what makes him CHEAP. If you miss out on the young high upside backup, he makes a very nice temporary fix as your fantasy backup. He WON'T lose his (albeit limited) value anytime soon, which makes him a nice backup plan in startup/redraft drafts if you want to chase high upside players at other positions.No upside backups at WR are practically worthless...but not at QB. Low value, but not worthless. Campbell is NOT an ideal target...but he's a nice insurance plan. If your current #2 is a guy like Bradford....then Campbell makes sense on your roster as #3 (temporary #2).

We aren't as far apart asyou think. :goodposting:

ETA: League size can affect this. In shallow leagues, a (slightly more then temporary) fix at QB might be available via waivers. In deeper leagues...they aren't. IN those deep leagues, you have to have a guy you can actually plug into your lineup and LEAVE IN YOUR LINEUP in a pinch. Not all replacements are for a single week...and a dirt cheap backup like Campbell pre-season is a better option then having to trade real prospects for a viable replacement mid-season.

 
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Sigmund Bloom said:
renesauz said:
EBF said:
I put Leinart/Moore/Smith/VY/Campbell in a different category because those guys have been in the league for years and have yet to emerge as reliable starters in the NFL and in FF. I'm more pessimistic about this group as a whole and would be reluctant to draft any of these guys in a dynasty league.
Click to expand...
While this is a good point, it seems almost unfair to lump Leinart in here as he spent a couple seasons behind a likely HOF QB.
Click to expand...
Leinart had the job handed to him in 2008 and imploded in the preseason. We should absolutely hold that against him. Warner didn't beat him out in camp in 08, Leinart just left the coaches no choice but to not trust him enough to put the team in his hands.
Click to expand...
Yep...but he'd hardly be the first young QB to "implode in training camp" in year 1 or 2, and then go on to have a nice career anyway. I'm not trying to tout him as a future QB1, or even trying to say that I like him. I'm just pointing out that he should NOT be relegated to the scrap heap just yet. His upside is every bit as good as some of the guys being drafted ahead of him.
 
renesauz said:
EBF said:
renesauz said:
EBF said:
I put Leinart/Moore/Smith/VY/Campbell in a different category because those guys have been in the league for years and have yet to emerge as reliable starters in the NFL and in FF. I'm more pessimistic about this group as a whole and would be reluctant to draft any of these guys in a dynasty league.
Click to expand...
While this is a good point, it seems almost unfair to lump Leinart in here as he spent a couple seasons behind a likely HOF QB. We seem to have forgotten that it used to be normal for a QB to take a few years before he was productive, and we have a tendency to write off QB's too quickly. I also like Campbell as a backup...he'll never be a stud, so his fantasy value is low, but he's better then generally given credit for in NFL terms and will be around a while. Not a guy to reach for, but if all else fails he's a nice backup while you wait for an opportunity to aquire another young QB with more upside.
Click to expand...
Campbell is the definition of replaceable in NFL and FF terms. I would rather have a backup who had the upside to become an every week starter. Since you're never going to play the guy unless your starter gets injured, the fact that he's a safe bet to put up solid QB2 numbers is pretty irrelevant. He might as well be scoring nothing. I like that Henne/Stafford/Sanchez/Freeman group as backups because one or more of those guys might eventually become a Brees/Romo/Rodgers level player. If they bust, you can always find another top QB prospect to fill their spot on your bench.
Click to expand...
I think you missed what I'm saying. :fishing: I too, would rather have a high upside guy as a #2, and yes...Campbell is replaceable (at least in fantasy terms..you're overstating his replacability in NFL terms.) His replaceability is exactly what makes him CHEAP. If you miss out on the young high upside backup, he makes a very nice temporary fix as your fantasy backup. He WON'T lose his (albeit limited) value anytime soon, which makes him a nice backup plan in startup/redraft drafts if you want to chase high upside players at other positions.No upside backups at WR are practically worthless...but not at QB. Low value, but not worthless. Campbell is NOT an ideal target...but he's a nice insurance plan. If your current #2 is a guy like Bradford....then Campbell makes sense on your roster as #3 (temporary #2).

We aren't as far apart asyou think. :fishing:

ETA: League size can affect this. In shallow leagues, a (slightly more then temporary) fix at QB might be available via waivers. In deeper leagues...they aren't. IN those deep leagues, you have to have a guy you can actually plug into your lineup and LEAVE IN YOUR LINEUP in a pinch. Not all replacements are for a single week...and a dirt cheap backup like Campbell pre-season is a better option then having to trade real prospects for a viable replacement mid-season.
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Precisely. Bear in mind, this is a 16 team dynasty with 6 pt per passing TDs. I joined my first league in this format like 4-5 yrs ago, before that it was usually 12 team leagues, and usually redraft or limited keeper ones. The dropoff from QB 24 (assuming everyone has two QBs in a 12 team league) to QB32 can be HUGE. It's particularly amplified in a dynasty league where all the young, upside starters are rostered. Andit's further amplified in a contract league format like this, where there's actually a very real downside to holding the bag on a QB or RB (who can be expensive) when his value evaporates.

 
BuckeyeArt said:
None of that matters. Who cares what everyone thought of Warner before he got to Arizona. It doesn't have anything to do with your projections. Fitz still put up his best numbers with Warner and not with Leinart. Just because Warner did as well as he did doesn't mean Leinart will also.
Click to expand...
The point was that it's not like we're saying "Fitzgerald hasn't produced unless he's had an uberstud under center". Fitzgerald has produced with a mediocre journeyman under center. That means there's a much lower standard of QBing necessary for Fitz to be a stud than some people are implying. If Leinart doesn't meet that low standard, then that's a shame for Fitz... this year. In the long run, though, that's an easy standard to reach, and I would not bet on Arizona turning into Buffalo and becoming a hotbed of awful QBing for the better part of a decade.
So you're going to use just 8 games as a projection for the next 6-8 years? Why not throw in the more recent 6 games since 2006 that he played mostly without Warner? In those, he went 26-949-2 (a 16 game projection of 69-949-5). And, those should include a Leinart better than 2006 Leinart.
Click to expand...
No, I'm not using those 8 games as a projection for the next 6-8 years. I was using those 8 games as a projection for next year. Beyond that... well, either Leinart lived up to my expectations, in which case everything is good going forward... or else he didn't, in which case he gets replaced and everything is good going forward. It's like what we were saying a couple of months ago regarding Kenny Britt (before Vince Young took over)- sometimes QB situations get really bad in the short term, but very rarely will they remain bad in the long term. Worst case scenario, in my opinion, is 1-2 seasons of bad QBing for Fitz... and even in that worst case, Fitz will be a very valuable fantasy WR because of his 160+ targets. He might fall slightly short of his 60 VBD mark... but we're talking averages. Some years you fall short, some years you go over. If he gets 44 VBD next year, then all he needs is 76 VBD the year after and he's still averaging 60 a year.
Well, his 50 VBD season was a prorated 44 VBD season that you elevated to 50 and then 60 with 'seasoning' even though Leinart has failed to show any up to now. I think it's safe to say TO had some very good QBs. Same with Randy Moss, except when he was in Oakland and didn't produce at the same lofty levels. Again I'm not saying Fits won't be a top WR for the next 6-8 years. I'm saying you can't use his last 5 years with Warner and say that he will produce 60-90 VBD points for the next 6-8 years. Unless Leinart shows he can be at least adequate, I don't think that's a reasonable expectation.
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Again, either Leinart shows he can be at least adequate (not a high standard of QBing to meet), or else Leinart gets replaced with someone who can be at least adequate. A Jason Campbell type, or a Donovan McNabb type, or a Jake Plummer type, or even a Kurt Warner type. To give a name... Kyle Orton is going to be a free agent after this season, and Brandon Marshall just had 101/1120/10 in 15 games with him- I'd say he meets that "adequate" threshold. If Leinart stinks up the joint and holds Fitzgerald back, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Orton in Cardinal Red next year. If not Orton, then someone similar. Arizona is in "win now" mode and Larry Fitzgerald is still one of the highest paid players in the league. The Cardinals are not going to let their seasons or their investment go to waste because of bad QBs.
 
renesauz said:
EBF said:
renesauz said:
EBF said:
I put Leinart/Moore/Smith/VY/Campbell in a different category because those guys have been in the league for years and have yet to emerge as reliable starters in the NFL and in FF. I'm more pessimistic about this group as a whole and would be reluctant to draft any of these guys in a dynasty league.
Click to expand...
While this is a good point, it seems almost unfair to lump Leinart in here as he spent a couple seasons behind a likely HOF QB. We seem to have forgotten that it used to be normal for a QB to take a few years before he was productive, and we have a tendency to write off QB's too quickly. I also like Campbell as a backup...he'll never be a stud, so his fantasy value is low, but he's better then generally given credit for in NFL terms and will be around a while. Not a guy to reach for, but if all else fails he's a nice backup while you wait for an opportunity to aquire another young QB with more upside.
Click to expand...
Campbell is the definition of replaceable in NFL and FF terms. I would rather have a backup who had the upside to become an every week starter. Since you're never going to play the guy unless your starter gets injured, the fact that he's a safe bet to put up solid QB2 numbers is pretty irrelevant. He might as well be scoring nothing. I like that Henne/Stafford/Sanchez/Freeman group as backups because one or more of those guys might eventually become a Brees/Romo/Rodgers level player. If they bust, you can always find another top QB prospect to fill their spot on your bench.
Click to expand...
I think you missed what I'm saying. :) I too, would rather have a high upside guy as a #2, and yes...Campbell is replaceable (at least in fantasy terms..you're overstating his replacability in NFL terms.) His replaceability is exactly what makes him CHEAP. If you miss out on the young high upside backup, he makes a very nice temporary fix as your fantasy backup. He WON'T lose his (albeit limited) value anytime soon, which makes him a nice backup plan in startup/redraft drafts if you want to chase high upside players at other positions.No upside backups at WR are practically worthless...but not at QB. Low value, but not worthless. Campbell is NOT an ideal target...but he's a nice insurance plan. If your current #2 is a guy like Bradford....then Campbell makes sense on your roster as #3 (temporary #2).

We aren't as far apart asyou think. ;)

ETA: League size can affect this. In shallow leagues, a (slightly more then temporary) fix at QB might be available via waivers. In deeper leagues...they aren't. IN those deep leagues, you have to have a guy you can actually plug into your lineup and LEAVE IN YOUR LINEUP in a pinch. Not all replacements are for a single week...and a dirt cheap backup like Campbell pre-season is a better option then having to trade real prospects for a viable replacement mid-season.
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I think this is a good post. In my opinion, in dynasty you really need at least 3 QBs on your roster: a starter, an average QB2, and a high upside younger guy. So if I have Matt Schaub as my starter and Josh Freeman as my high upside younger guy, I still could really use someone like Jason Campbell as my average QB2 guy, just in case. It's easy to say that you'll start Schaub every week except his Bye week and certainly Freeman can fill in that one time, but it's nice to know that if something happens to Schaub, you're not completely dependent on Freeman. I think QBs like Campbell are actually a little bit underrated.
 
BuckeyeArt said:
Frist, from the prior Fitz discussions and the excerpts you posted below, I think his production without Boldin can be argued either way.
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:shrug: Tip of the cap to ESPN.com's Mike Sando.

Fitz's career numbers with Boldin in the lineup: 5.6 receptions, 73.8 yards, 0.6 TDs

Fitz's career numbers without Boldin in the lineup: 6.1 receptions, 90.1 yards, 0.8 TDs.

Fitz's career numbers without Boldin since 2005: 7.0 receptions, 105.5 yards, 1.0 TDs.

 
Fear & Loathing said:
BuckeyeArt said:
Frist, from the prior Fitz discussions and the excerpts you posted below, I think his production without Boldin can be argued either way.
Click to expand...
:shrug: Tip of the cap to ESPN.com's Mike Sando.

Fitz's career numbers with Boldin in the lineup: 5.6 receptions, 73.8 yards, 0.6 TDs

Fitz's career numbers without Boldin in the lineup: 6.1 receptions, 90.1 yards, 0.8 TDs.

Fitz's career numbers without Boldin since 2005: 7.0 receptions, 105.5 yards, 1.0 TDs.
Click to expand...
For some reason, I read SSOG's posted excerpts as 'Boldin' instead of 'Warner'. I retract that statement. Thanks. I wonder what Boldin's numbers look like with and without Fitz.
 
HenryMuto said:
The Real Hipster Doofus said:
SSOG said:
After a recent lowball offer from an owner looking to buy Fitzgerald low now that Warner has retired, I was looking up where Fitzgerald rates against history so far. A lot of you might have seen the numbers of where Fitzgerald ranks through X seasons (top 10 receivers in fantasy points through 6 seasons = Moss, Rice, Holt, Harrison, Fitzgerald, Alworth, Rison, Sterling Sharpe, Owens, and Charley Taylor- pretty heady company)... but I wanted to look at it from a different perspective. I wanted to see how unprecedented it was to have a player who was THIS proven and THIS good, but still THIS young. Fitzgerald just completed his age 26 seasons, so I compiled a list of the best stats through age 26 in NFL history. Take a look-

Receptions-

Randy Moss (525)

Larry Fitzgerald (523)

Andre Rison (394)

Receiving Yards-

Randy Moss (8375)

Larry Fitzgerald (7067)

Lance Alworth (5651)

Receiving TDs-

Randy Moss (77)

Larry Fitzgerald (59)

Lance Alworth (54)

Fantasy Points-

Randy Moss (1321.5)

Larry Fitzgerald (1066.2)

Lance Alworth (910.0)

First off, it's startling just how far ahead of everyone else Randy Moss was. The second thing I notice, though, is that Fitzgerald is just as far ahead of third place. Andre Rison was 129 receptions behind Fitzgerald through age 26. Alworth was 1416 yards behind Fitz. Alworth was also 156 fantasy points behind Fitz through age 26. That's the fantasy equivalent of Santonio Holmes last season.

To put this into even more perspective... Brandon Marshall was 25 last year, so his 26-year old season is coming up. Let's say that Brandon Marshall becomes an unstoppable beast and manages to go for a record-shattering 3200 yards and 30 TDs. If he manages to do that, Larry Fitzgerald will STILL have scored more fantasy points by age 27. If Michael Crabtree wants to catch Larry Fitzgerald through age 26, he'll need to put up 1610 yards and 14 TDs. Every year. FOR THE NEXT FOUR YEARS. And even that will still leave him 6.2 fantasy points behind Fitz.

F&L did a post on his blog last year questioning whether Fitzgerald might be worth the very first pick in a dynasty start-up. Personally, I think the question is every bit as valid today after Fitzgerald put up yet another top-5 fantasy finish despite the clear erosion of Kurt Warner's abilities. So, is there anyone else out there who would consider taking Larry Fitzgerald with the #1 overall pick of a new startup?
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I have yet to do a dynasty startup draft so I can't speak to that although I can say I tend to favor elite WR's to RB's because are much safer bets IMO. I think you could probably start with the #1, trade down to around 5 or 6 and still get Fitz plus some more. I will say I am glad that the switch to Leinart has some scared enough to deal what was once an untouchable asset. This offseason I made a deal that many said I overpaid on, but I wanted Fitz. I see him as pretty much a lock for top 5 numbers every year regardless of the situation around him. He is that good. I gave

Sidney Rice

Brent Celek

1.06 rookie pick

I got

Fitzgerald
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So would you say I made a mistake when I just rejected an offer of I get Fitz

I give V-Jax, Boldin and a 2011 2nd round pick

I love Fitz but I love V-Jax as well and I just can't part with V-Jax.
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Hard to say without seeing your team, but yes I would have made that deal
 
Good friend of mine in both my leagues is considering a trade right now. He posted it in AC forum and here is his post.

Should I accept this trade?

PPR Dynasty

I give:

Gore

I get:

1.02 (Matthews already taken)

Pierre Thomas

My team

QB: Palmer, Alex Smith, Moore, Brohm

RB: ADP, Gore, Michael Bush, Norwood

WR: Harvin, Mason, Cotchery, Mike Thomas, Jacoby Jones, Roy Williams, Brandon Tate, Jarett Dillard

TE: Witten, Heap, Bennett

Picks: 1.08, 2.01, 2.10, more
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Link to thread I told him it probably wouldn't be a good idea since its basically throwing away money this year and with Gore/AP he doesn't need too much to win it all this year. Here is the league if you wanna take a closer look.

It brings up a great dynasty question about what to do with average teams. When do you pull the plug and rebuild? This is only my 2nd year of dynasty (and I love it ) but I would really like to hear from some experienced players on the issue.

 
OnThInIcE911 said:
Good friend of mine in both my leagues is considering a trade right now. He posted it in AC forum and here is his post.

Should I accept this trade?

PPR Dynasty

I give:

Gore

I get:

1.02 (Matthews already taken)

Pierre Thomas

My team

QB: Palmer, Alex Smith, Moore, Brohm

RB: ADP, Gore, Michael Bush, Norwood

WR: Harvin, Mason, Cotchery, Mike Thomas, Jacoby Jones, Roy Williams, Brandon Tate, Jarett Dillard

TE: Witten, Heap, Bennett

Picks: 1.08, 2.01, 2.10, more
Click to expand...
Link to thread I told him it probably wouldn't be a good idea since its basically throwing away money this year and with Gore/AP he doesn't need too much to win it all this year. Here is the league if you wanna take a closer look.

It brings up a great dynasty question about what to do with average teams. When do you pull the plug and rebuild? This is only my 2nd year of dynasty (and I love it ) but I would really like to hear from some experienced players on the issue.
Click to expand...
I would do that deal in a heartbeat. As quick as I could. Much rather have PT and a Best/Spiller/Bryant than a single player Gore.
 
TitansFan10 said:
OnThInIcE911 said:
Good friend of mine in both my leagues is considering a trade right now. He posted it in AC forum and here is his post.

Should I accept this trade?

PPR Dynasty

I give:

Gore

I get:

1.02 (Matthews already taken)

Pierre Thomas

My team

QB: Palmer, Alex Smith, Moore, Brohm

RB: ADP, Gore, Michael Bush, Norwood

WR: Harvin, Mason, Cotchery, Mike Thomas, Jacoby Jones, Roy Williams, Brandon Tate, Jarett Dillard

TE: Witten, Heap, Bennett

Picks: 1.08, 2.01, 2.10, more
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Link to thread I told him it probably wouldn't be a good idea since its basically throwing away money this year and with Gore/AP he doesn't need too much to win it all this year. Here is the league if you wanna take a closer look.

It brings up a great dynasty question about what to do with average teams. When do you pull the plug and rebuild? This is only my 2nd year of dynasty (and I love it ) but I would really like to hear from some experienced players on the issue.
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I would do that deal in a heartbeat. As quick as I could. Much rather have PT and a Best/Spiller/Bryant than a single player Gore.
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Usually you lose giving up 1 for 2. But the best player in this deal is Bryant. The fact that Pierre is much more than a "throw-in" makes it that much more overwhelmingly in your favor.
 
EBF said:
I put Leinart/Moore/Smith/VY/Campbell in a different category because those guys have been in the league for years and have yet to emerge as reliable starters in the NFL and in FF. I'm more pessimistic about this group as a whole and would be reluctant to draft any of these guys in a dynasty league.
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Why are you putting Moore in the same catagory as the rest of these QBs? All of these QBs except Moore were first round picks and have been given every oppertunity to succeed and haven't emerged. Moore, on the otherhand, as undrafted QB was not given much of an oppertunity until last season. I don't think he could of played better in his limited starts. Why would anybody be reluctant to draft Moore at his ADP in dynasty leagues is beyond me?
 
Fear & Loathing said:
BuckeyeArt said:
Frist, from the prior Fitz discussions and the excerpts you posted below, I think his production without Boldin can be argued either way.
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:penalty: Tip of the cap to ESPN.com's Mike Sando.

Fitz's career numbers with Boldin in the lineup: 5.6 receptions, 73.8 yards, 0.6 TDs

Fitz's career numbers without Boldin in the lineup: 6.1 receptions, 90.1 yards, 0.8 TDs.

Fitz's career numbers without Boldin since 2005: 7.0 receptions, 105.5 yards, 1.0 TDs.
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:goodposting: I find that generally people dramatically overrate the "great receiver on the other side drawing coverage" factor. For a guy like Wes Welker, yeah, it makes a difference. For a guy like Larry Fitzgerald, though, all it does is steal targets, not coverage. Fitz is going to beat whatever coverages you throw at him, anyway, so I'd much rather not have Boldin on the other side hogging balls.

One last point on Fitzgerald before we move on. The four staffers who have projections up have Fitzgerald slotted 2nd, 6th, 6th, and 1st this year. Of the 14 sets of rankings, Fitzgerald comes out as the consensus #2, with 4 first place votes, 4 second place votes, 2 third place votes, 2 fourth place votes, a sixth place vote, and a 14th place vote ( :confused: ). In other words, it looks like either 60 VBD is a pretty realistic expectation for this upcoming year... or else Fitzgerald has just bamboozled a lot of professionals who have been doing this for a long time. And like I said, this year is probably the worst situation for Fitzgerald, because of the uncertainty. Next year, either Leinart proves to be the answer, or else Leinart will have been replaced.

thriftyrocker said:
Usually you lose giving up 1 for 2. But the best player in this deal is Bryant. The fact that Pierre is much more than a "throw-in" makes it that much more overwhelmingly in your favor.
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I strongly disagree. The best player in that trade is Gore, no question. Bryant's upside is that he one day becomes as much of a stud as Gore already is.
greggorymac said:
Need your guys help....

We are switching from a re-draft league to a keeper league next season (12 team non-ppr league, 6pt all TDs, 2-team keeper with no penalty as to which 2 players you keep).

We did our draft spot lottery last night and I will be drafting 11th. Since the top 4 RBs will be gone and this is the first year of our keeper, should I solidify my team by drafting one of the top 4 QBs along with Fitz/AJ with my first two picks? Although that would put me in a whole at the RB position, I expect those QBs and those WRs to be at the top at their position for the next 3 years. Any RB I pick at 1.11 or 2.02 may not be any good a year or two from now.

How much should starting a keeper league this season influence my draft strategy?
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In a no-penalty keep-2 league, you should never under ANY CIRCUMSTANCES wind up keeping a QB or a TE. Ever. For any reason. Ever. You should only wind up keeping a WR in the rarest and most extreme of circumstances (for instance, when Moss was coming off his 20+ TD season, he probably warranted keeping). "Keep 2" leagues really ought to rename themselves to "Keep 2 RB leagues", because RBs are the only viable keeper option. Of the 24 keepers next year, probably 20 of them will wind up being RBs... which means if you don't keep RBs, you won't HAVE RBs.Short-list, no-penalty keeper leagues are the most RB-dominated leagues on the planet. There's no other league type out there where it's as important to secure quality RBs. If I were you, I'd go RB/RB at the 1/2 turn. Grab two guys from the Mendenhall/Stewart/Wells/Mathews/Charles types and hope that at least one of them becomes a quality top-8 stud going into next season if you want to remain competitive long-term.

 
greggorymac said:
Need your guys help....We are switching from a re-draft league to a keeper league next season (12 team non-ppr league, 6pt all TDs, 2-team keeper with no penalty as to which 2 players you keep).We did our draft spot lottery last night and I will be drafting 11th. Since the top 4 RBs will be gone and this is the first year of our keeper, should I solidify my team by drafting one of the top 4 QBs along with Fitz/AJ with my first two picks? Although that would put me in a whole at the RB position, I expect those QBs and those WRs to be at the top at their position for the next 3 years. Any RB I pick at 1.11 or 2.02 may not be any good a year or two from now.How much should starting a keeper league this season influence my draft strategy?
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There is plenty of upside and youth at RB available at the 3/4 turn and 5/6 turn that you don't need to blow your 1.11 or 2.2 on upside at RB. Granted Mendenhall and Greene could both be there, and they are both good keepers in this format. If you prefer studs at QB/WR here, you can wait on RB. The 3/4 turn can get you Moreno, Felix, or Best. The 5/6 turn could get you Ben Tate or Donald Brown.I wouldn't blow your early picks on youth for youth's sake. But I would reach 1 or 2 times in the draft for youth at RB hoping you get lucky. If you miss out, try again next year.
 
Sigmund Bloom said:
renesauz said:
EBF said:
I put Leinart/Moore/Smith/VY/Campbell in a different category because those guys have been in the league for years and have yet to emerge as reliable starters in the NFL and in FF. I'm more pessimistic about this group as a whole and would be reluctant to draft any of these guys in a dynasty league.
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While this is a good point, it seems almost unfair to lump Leinart in here as he spent a couple seasons behind a likely HOF QB.
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Leinart had the job handed to him in 2008 and imploded in the preseason. We should absolutely hold that against him. Warner didn't beat him out in camp in 08, Leinart just left the coaches no choice but to not trust him enough to put the team in his hands.
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:rant:Exactly why one should temper expectations for Fitz.
 
renesauz said:
Sigmund Bloom said:
renesauz said:
EBF said:
I put Leinart/Moore/Smith/VY/Campbell in a different category because those guys have been in the league for years and have yet to emerge as reliable starters in the NFL and in FF. I'm more pessimistic about this group as a whole and would be reluctant to draft any of these guys in a dynasty league.
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While this is a good point, it seems almost unfair to lump Leinart in here as he spent a couple seasons behind a likely HOF QB.
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Leinart had the job handed to him in 2008 and imploded in the preseason. We should absolutely hold that against him. Warner didn't beat him out in camp in 08, Leinart just left the coaches no choice but to not trust him enough to put the team in his hands.
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Yep...but he'd hardly be the first young QB to "implode in training camp" in year 1 or 2, and then go on to have a nice career anyway. I'm not trying to tout him as a future QB1, or even trying to say that I like him. I'm just pointing out that he should NOT be relegated to the scrap heap just yet. His upside is every bit as good as some of the guys being drafted ahead of him.
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Well, yeah, but what about year 3? (2008 was Leinart's 3rd year.) :rant:
 
Just Win Baby said:
SSOG said:
Fitz is still going to get his 160+ targets like he always does... and he's one of three guys that's a mortal lock to pull down 160 targets every single year...
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It's not a big difference, but we already agreed that 150 is a more realistic baseline expectation. That means he could get more... but he could also get less.
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A nit: I said I could see 150 as a reasonable baseline. I never said that it was the only reasonably baseline, or that it was my baseline. :)
 
Just Win Baby said:
renesauz said:
Sigmund Bloom said:
renesauz said:
EBF said:
I put Leinart/Moore/Smith/VY/Campbell in a different category because those guys have been in the league for years and have yet to emerge as reliable starters in the NFL and in FF. I'm more pessimistic about this group as a whole and would be reluctant to draft any of these guys in a dynasty league.
Click to expand...
While this is a good point, it seems almost unfair to lump Leinart in here as he spent a couple seasons behind a likely HOF QB.
Click to expand...
Leinart had the job handed to him in 2008 and imploded in the preseason. We should absolutely hold that against him. Warner didn't beat him out in camp in 08, Leinart just left the coaches no choice but to not trust him enough to put the team in his hands.
Click to expand...
Yep...but he'd hardly be the first young QB to "implode in training camp" in year 1 or 2, and then go on to have a nice career anyway. I'm not trying to tout him as a future QB1, or even trying to say that I like him. I'm just pointing out that he should NOT be relegated to the scrap heap just yet. His upside is every bit as good as some of the guys being drafted ahead of him.
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Well, yeah, but what about year 3? (2008 was Leinart's 3rd year.) :)
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Nice correction by Just Win. Leinart IS on the scrap heap for a reason.
 
This thread continues to amaze me with the infomation and intelligent debate in here. :thumbup:

I'm in a 4 PLAYER KEEPER LEAGUE (MOVING TO #5 KEEPERS NEXT YEAR) - 2QB - 2RB - 2WR - 2 FLEX - 1TE......6 POINT all TD's

The more u guys talk and inform, the closer i get to my decision of who to keep out of:

SJAX

JCHARLES

BRADY

MANNING

CJ#3

Cheers

Currently its SJAX-CJ3-MANNING-BRADY but i hate throwing JCharles back into the pool, I just feel i will live to regret the decision. Love backing guys with talent and JCharles has it in bucket loads.

 
Shadows said:
This thread continues to amaze me with the infomation and intelligent debate in here. :thumbup: I'm in a 4 PLAYER KEEPER LEAGUE (MOVING TO #5 KEEPERS NEXT YEAR) - 2QB - 2RB - 2WR - 2 FLEX - 1TE......6 POINT all TD'sThe more u guys talk and inform, the closer i get to my decision of who to keep out of:SJAXJCHARLESBRADYMANNINGCJ#3Cheers Currently its SJAX-CJ3-MANNING-BRADY but i hate throwing JCharles back into the pool, I just feel i will live to regret the decision. Love backing guys with talent and JCharles has it in bucket loads.
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I like your choices.
 
Shadows said:
This thread continues to amaze me with the infomation and intelligent debate in here. :football: I'm in a 4 PLAYER KEEPER LEAGUE (MOVING TO #5 KEEPERS NEXT YEAR) - 2QB - 2RB - 2WR - 2 FLEX - 1TE......6 POINT all TD'sThe more u guys talk and inform, the closer i get to my decision of who to keep out of:SJAXJCHARLESBRADYMANNINGCJ#3Cheers Currently its SJAX-CJ3-MANNING-BRADY but i hate throwing JCharles back into the pool, I just feel i will live to regret the decision. Love backing guys with talent and JCharles has it in bucket loads.
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You can't trade one of them to a team with less guys for an early draft pick?
 
What would be great to see is the rise and fall of these players in the dynasty rankings from year to yeary.

If we had a 5 year chart showing the rankings of these players from 2006-2010.

It be nice to see how fast these players rise and fall.

Ray Rice was ranked around 30-35 I think in RB's last year and now he is ranked in the top 4.

Where was Miles Austin and Sidney Rice ranked last year and the year before that.

Where was Westbrook ranked in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and now.

A chart something like this.

-------------------- 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006

Chris Johnson ----- #1 - #4 - #22 ------------

Ray Rice ----------- #3 - #33 - #31 ------------

Westbrook --------#92 -#12 - #6 - #8 - #17

 
I just made a deal giving away Boldin to land the 1.02 both Bryant and Mathews will still be on the board if the guy who has the #1 isn't lying to me about taking Spiller.

So now I have to debate within myself for 3 months Bryant vs Mathews.

My RB's are weak but my foundness for Bryant grows with each passing day.

 
HenryMuto said:
What would be great to see is the rise and fall of these players in the dynasty rankings from year to yeary.

If we had a 5 year chart showing the rankings of these players from 2006-2010.

It be nice to see how fast these players rise and fall.

Ray Rice was ranked around 30-35 I think in RB's last year and now he is ranked in the top 4.

Where was Miles Austin and Sidney Rice ranked last year and the year before that.

Where was Westbrook ranked in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and now.

A chart something like this.

-------------------- 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006

Chris Johnson ----- #1 - #4 - #22 ------------

Ray Rice ----------- #3 - #33 - #31 ------------

Westbrook --------#92 -#12 - #6 - #8 - #17
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Funny you mention that - I'm actually working on a dynasty rankings tool for DynastyDashboard which I'm going to launch independently at DynastyRankings.com (nothing there yet), and these kinds of features are exactly the reason.I have a bunch of reporting stuff planned - how much a player's ranking changes over time, how accurate a ranking was (for redraft type stuff), how much volatility in the ranker's rankings (e.g., like kremenull who WILDLY overreacts to things IMO), average scores for all the site + custom "sets" of rankers, and so on.

I'm actively working on it now and hope to launch within the month... so I'll let you guys know.

 
gheemony said:
Shadows said:
This thread continues to amaze me with the infomation and intelligent debate in here. :lmao: I'm in a 4 PLAYER KEEPER LEAGUE (MOVING TO #5 KEEPERS NEXT YEAR) - 2QB - 2RB - 2WR - 2 FLEX - 1TE......6 POINT all TD'sThe more u guys talk and inform, the closer i get to my decision of who to keep out of:SJAXJCHARLESBRADYMANNINGCJ#3Cheers Currently its SJAX-CJ3-MANNING-BRADY but i hate throwing JCharles back into the pool, I just feel i will live to regret the decision. Love backing guys with talent and JCharles has it in bucket loads.
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I like your choices.
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Which one though is the burning question. :lmao: :lmao: Will try and package something leading into the draft so i dont get locked into a player getting injured pre-season. Picks 1-32 are reserved for Keepers. Its an 8 team league. I never thought i would say it, but its probably my most enjoyable league due to 8 nutcases. 4 guys from USA and 4 guys from Australia battling it out over the last 4 years. The rivalry, banter and fun are just A grade stuff.
 
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