Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

[EthnicFury]

it doesn't matter what's faster to type. his point is that he considers opportunity to be a factor of situation, not a separate part of a RB's value entirely. he took the time to write that because he disagrees with you counting what he considers to be one factor of an RB's value twice.

at the same time, i do understand your point (that how many looks he's gonna get and how good the supporting cast is are both issues at hand), but on the other hand even if he's the starter, a terrible supporting cast can mean a guy won't get that many chances to do anything with the ball (e.g. a team playing from behind keeping an RB from racking up carries, or jake delhomme not being able to get steve smith the ball).

i happen to agree with SSOG that felix jones is far from a sure fire anything, however you score the different variables. obviously you can't rule out injuries from anybody but his injury history combined with coaches' unwillingness to let him carry the load certainly make him a risky proposition (if a very high-upside one)

EDIT: if you have gone through his post, actually thought about what he is saying and still disagree with it, that's fine. That said, I see a lot of people getting all butt hurt about how others word things and dismissing what could be valuable knowledge/information in the shark pool and this thread in particular.

It's an internet message board. Take what information you think is relevant, ignore the rest. But if you aren't willing to consider somebody else's relatively well-reasoned point on the basis of "hurf durf you were mean to me i'm ignoring you" you're probably gonna miss out on a lot of info that could make you a better FFB player. Not to point the finger at you personally or this case specifically, but it really does happen a lot around here.

 

[Go deep]

it doesn't matter what's faster to type. his point is that he considers opportunity to be a factor of situation, not a separate part of a RB's value entirely. he took the time to write that because he disagrees with you counting what he considers to be one factor of an RB's value twice.at the same time, i do understand your point (that how many looks he's gonna get and how good the supporting cast is are both issues at hand), but on the other hand even if he's the starter, a terrible supporting cast can mean a guy won't get that many chances to do anything with the ball (e.g. a team playing from behind keeping an RB from racking up carries, or jake delhomme not being able to get steve smith the ball).i happen to agree with SSOG that felix jones is far from a sure fire anything, however you score the different variables. obviously you can't rule out injuries from anybody but his injury history combined with coaches' unwillingness to let him carry the load certainly make him a risky proposition (if a very high-upside one)EDIT: if you have gone through his post, actually thought about what he is saying and still disagree with it, that's fine. That said, I see a lot of people getting all butt hurt about how others word things and dismissing what could be valuable knowledge/information in the shark pool and this thread in particular.It's an internet message board. Take what information you think is relevant, ignore the rest. But if you aren't willing to consider somebody else's relatively well-reasoned point on the basis of "hurf durf you were mean to me i'm ignoring you" you're probably gonna miss out on a lot of info that could make you a better FFB player. Not to point the finger at you personally or this case specifically, but it really does happen a lot around here.

Im sure most people agree that he is not a "sure fire" fantasy back. Thats why he is widely considered to be outside the top 15 RB's. While i respect the herd mentality, you are not going to build a dominate fantasy team by following it. Each year half of the guys in the top 10 are guys who were long shots to be there. Its hard to figure out which players will do it in any given year, but after watching Jones for the last two years, i am not sure i have ever been this confident about any player to make a leap into the top 10.Alot of people need to see statistics to feel confident about a player, but by the time they get there, its too late to acquire them. These are usually the same people who go by the "never trade your studs" theory, for obvious reasons. Thats just not the way i build my dynasty teams. I dont fall in love with my players, and i treat them like a stock. I trade them when i feel they are at the end of their peak, and acquire them before they hit their peak. To me, Felix Jones is Microsoft 20 years agn another point, i agree with not ignoring peolple, i dont have a problem with SSOG, nor anyone else here. Problem is alot of people on here take it personally when you disagree with them. Ask F&L, he takes so much heat when he ranks other people players too ow for their liking. I dont ignore anyone, i will listen to their arguments until i believe they are taking it personally, and i believe that is the point SSOG is at with this topic. There is nothing he or i are going to say to change the other ones mind at this point, so why continue to discuss it? I will bump his posts half way through the season though. Im sure he will just call it a lucky guess on my part, but i can assure you, it wont be luck.

 

[SSOG]

I believe Felix was drafted ahead of Rice in many leagues (mine at least) and was regularly drafted at an earlier draft slot than Sidney as well (i.e., I am still not seeing the distinction you are making here).

I never said anything about Ray Rice. I was simply saying that Sidney Rice and Rashard Mendenhall are perfect examples of why rookie draft pedigree matters. People loved both players at the time of the rookie draft, but a year later they forgot all about their original feelings. Robert Meachem is another example. You asked my why a player's rookie pedigree mattered, and I'm giving you players that demonstrate why it matters.

You are comparing the two players but seem to be applying different standards. IIRC, in 2009, Stewart didn't exactly steal carries from Deangelo. When Deangelo was playing, Stewart's max carries was 17 carries, but normally more like 10-12 carries per game. He did his damage only when Deangelo went out with an injury. With Deangelo in town, Stewart is not likely to clear 226 carries himself, at least not in 2010 and possibly beyond if Deangelo ends up staying. I love Stewart and think he should be drafted well ahead of Felix, but he does have risks of his own which don't seem to be recognizing.

Jonathan Stewart had 152 carries through the 13 weeks that DeAngelo Williams was healthy this year. Felix Jones has 146 carries in his entire career. Stewart has been doing a MUCH better job at stealing carries from Williams than Felix has been doing at stealing carries from Barber.As for the rest of it... like I said, ideological differences. Someone called Felix a "sure-fire top-8 RB". Personally, I don't see anything remotely sure-fire about an RB that hasn't averaged more than 11 carries per game in his entire 5-year professional and semi-pro career.

Im confused about alot of things in his post, but especially that part. I am confused why he took the time to write "another word for situation" instead of "opportunity". Isnt writing the word "opportunity" quicker to type? Plus, look up the words "situation" and "opportunity" in the dictionary, they have different meanings. Jones had a great situation last year, but didnt get the opportunity to play. Im not sure what part of that SSOG doesnt get, but im not going to argue with a guy whose goal it is to try to belittle people who dont agree with him. Im confident Jones is going to be a top 8 dynasty back, he doesnt.

I took the time to write "another word for situation" not because I was looking to cut corners, but because I thought it was silly to double count situation. Yes, opportunity and situation have different dictionary definitions... but opportunity is PART of situation. It'd be like if I said that a player's value was determined by the formula "talent + God-given gifts + work ethic + cutting ability + skill + opportunity". Those first five things are all the same thing- they're just different words that either mean talent, or describe one facet of the whole that the word "talent" encompasses. In the same way, "opportunity" is a facet of situation. If a player is going to get a lot of opportunity, he's said to be in a good situation.In other words, I was pointing out the fact that I felt you were double-counting situation (by listing "situation" and "opportunity" separately, when the word situation encompasses a player's opportunity already).

When I say the player was awesome in 2008 what I mean is if I sell low on the guy now and he rebounds to form I will lose a lot on my investment of the player. So is cutting bait at this time wise while value is low or is it better to just cut bait now before value goes to zero.

You've already lost on those investments. Their value might go up from here, but whether their value is high at the end of 2011 has nothing to do with whether their value was high at the end of 2008. Those assets shouldn't be valued STRICTLY BECAUSE they were once valued assets. Their value going forward is not at all tied to their value looking back.

On another point, i agree with not ignoring peolple, i dont have a problem with SSOG, nor anyone else here. Problem is alot of people on here take it personally when you disagree with them. Ask F&L, he takes so much heat when he ranks other people players too ow for their liking. I dont ignore anyone, i will listen to their arguments until i believe they are taking it personally, and i believe that is the point SSOG is at with this topic. There is nothing he or i are going to say to change the other ones mind at this point, so why continue to discuss it? I will bump his posts half way through the season though. Im sure he will just call it a lucky guess on my part, but i can assure you, it wont be luck.

I don't know why I would be taking it personally. I don't own Felix Jones. I'm not a Dallas Cowboy or Arkansas Razorback fan. I don't have anything against Jones, either- I drafted him in my keeper league last season specifically because he's a very high-upside player. I think he has great pedigree, and he does have impressive talent. When you're watching games, he really jumps off the screen. All-in-all, I think I'm an extremely impartial and unbiased observer when it comes to Felix Jones. I personally don't think he's a safe play, and I have serious questions about his ability to handle a larger workload, but there's nothing personal about that... that's just the result of a process I've developed after watching CoP backs like Jerious Norwood, Leon Washington, Mewelde Moore, Tatum Bell, and Darren Sproles put up unheard-of numbers in limited action and then fail to parlay them into a larger role.Also, you can feel free to bump this thread halfway through the season. I won't call it a lucky guess- that's never been my MO. If Felix becomes the next Chris Johnson and you bump this thread halfway through the season, then I'll probably just launch into a discussion of process and outcome. I'll lay my process on the table, I'll explain again why I've adopted this process, we'll discuss whether it's a good process that led to a bad outcome or whether it's a bad process, we'll discuss why that's the case and/or how I could improve the process for the future, and then we'll move on. I'm not on the boards because I want to be right all the time. I'm not on the boards because I want to be perceived as some sort of fantasy savant with an unimpeachable track record. I'm not LHUCKS. If I wanted people to think I was always right, I would make a point of not having strong opinions on players like Felix Jones. I'm on the boards because I want to improve my abilities as a fantasy owner, because I want to win my league championship every year, in every league. I care more about my "league cred" than I do about my "board cred".

 

[J-Dawg]

My bad if this has already been discussed in this thread, but what are people's thoughts about Fred Jackson going into this season?

 

[D'OHtis]

My bad if this has already been discussed in this thread, but what are people's thoughts about Fred Jackson going into this season?

Better than Marshawn Lynch (2 years running). Don't care if Marshawn's in beast mode, bust mode or breaking the law mode. Jackson should get the majority of the carries there in 2010.--------------------------------2010:Spiller: I expect 6-8 carries a game with a presence in the receiving/ST game. Bush/Felix-like presence.I expect Jackson to get 175+ carries. Guy's a solid football player (comparable to Derrick Ward IMO). I think Spiller will add a game breaking potential that they currently lack on offense.Game plan in Buffalo should be running early and often. Don't know how successful that game plan will be if/when they get down. That QB situation is a disaster.Hard to tell at this point how much Spiller will affect Jackson in the receiving game. Going on what we know today (which isn't much), I'd say Jackson's probably a lower half RB2 (RB18-24) in nonPPR and RB3 (RB25-36) in PPR for 2010. --------------------Long Term:I see Spiller as a 150 carry back so I think the opportunity is there for Jackson to have a big role (150+ carries) for the next 2-3 seasons. He's still got a lot left in the tank (and has minimal usage on him). Would I pay a lot for him? No. Then again, I don't think you'll have to give much as is the norm with nearing 30 year old RB's.

 

[gianmarco]

My bad if this has already been discussed in this thread, but what are people's thoughts about Fred Jackson going into this season?

Better than Marshawn Lynch (2 years running). Don't care if Marshawn's in beast mode, bust mode or breaking the law mode. Jackson should get the majority of the carries there in 2010.--------------------------------

2010:

Spiller: I expect 6-8 carries a game with a presence in the receiving/ST game. Bush/Felix-like presence.

I expect Jackson to get 175+ carries. Guy's a solid football player (comparable to Derrick Ward IMO). I think Spiller will add a game breaking potential that they currently lack on offense.

Game plan in Buffalo should be running early and often. Don't know how successful that game plan will be if/when they get down. That QB situation is a disaster.

Hard to tell at this point how much Spiller will affect Jackson in the receiving game. Going on what we know today (which isn't much), I'd say Jackson's probably a lower half RB2 (RB18-24) in nonPPR and RB3 (RB25-36) in PPR for 2010.

--------------------

Long Term:

I see Spiller as a 150 carry back so I think the opportunity is there for Jackson to have a big role (150+ carries) for the next 2-3 seasons. He's still got a lot left in the tank (and has minimal usage on him). Would I pay a lot for him? No. Then again, I don't think you'll have to give much as is the norm with nearing 30 year old RB's.

You think they used a top 10 draft pick on a RB to give him <10 carries/game?

 

[az_prof]

My bad if this has already been discussed in this thread, but what are people's thoughts about Fred Jackson going into this season?

My feelings are that if you have him on your dynasty roster then you missed the window to sell him High. When bad teams draft a RB in the first round he gets the majority of the carries unless he really does poorly. I expect Spiller to get somewhere between 250-300 touches. I think Lynch may end up traded, which is when I would try to trade Fred to the Spiller owner or someone else who is awed by last season's numbers. He is a 29 year old RB who was undrafted originally--yes, he has talent as a COP back, but he isn't a featured back.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

Anyone have a resource that shows ADP for rookie drafts the last 5-10 years?

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

My bad if this has already been discussed in this thread, but what are people's thoughts about Fred Jackson going into this season?

Better than Marshawn Lynch (2 years running). Don't care if Marshawn's in beast mode, bust mode or breaking the law mode. Jackson should get the majority of the carries there in 2010.--------------------------------

2010:

Spiller: I expect 6-8 carries a game with a presence in the receiving/ST game. Bush/Felix-like presence.

I expect Jackson to get 175+ carries. Guy's a solid football player (comparable to Derrick Ward IMO). I think Spiller will add a game breaking potential that they currently lack on offense.

Game plan in Buffalo should be running early and often. Don't know how successful that game plan will be if/when they get down. That QB situation is a disaster.

Hard to tell at this point how much Spiller will affect Jackson in the receiving game. Going on what we know today (which isn't much), I'd say Jackson's probably a lower half RB2 (RB18-24) in nonPPR and RB3 (RB25-36) in PPR for 2010.

--------------------

Long Term:

I see Spiller as a 150 carry back so I think the opportunity is there for Jackson to have a big role (150+ carries) for the next 2-3 seasons. He's still got a lot left in the tank (and has minimal usage on him). Would I pay a lot for him? No. Then again, I don't think you'll have to give much as is the norm with nearing 30 year old RB's.

You think they used a top 10 draft pick on a RB to give him <10 carries/game?

Reggie Bush: 52 career regular season games played, 488 carries.

 

[Tau837]

My bad if this has already been discussed in this thread, but what are people's thoughts about Fred Jackson going into this season?

Better than Marshawn Lynch (2 years running). Don't care if Marshawn's in beast mode, bust mode or breaking the law mode. Jackson should get the majority of the carries there in 2010.--------------------------------

2010:

Spiller: I expect 6-8 carries a game with a presence in the receiving/ST game. Bush/Felix-like presence.

I expect Jackson to get 175+ carries. Guy's a solid football player (comparable to Derrick Ward IMO). I think Spiller will add a game breaking potential that they currently lack on offense.

Game plan in Buffalo should be running early and often. Don't know how successful that game plan will be if/when they get down. That QB situation is a disaster.

Hard to tell at this point how much Spiller will affect Jackson in the receiving game. Going on what we know today (which isn't much), I'd say Jackson's probably a lower half RB2 (RB18-24) in nonPPR and RB3 (RB25-36) in PPR for 2010.

--------------------

Long Term:

I see Spiller as a 150 carry back so I think the opportunity is there for Jackson to have a big role (150+ carries) for the next 2-3 seasons. He's still got a lot left in the tank (and has minimal usage on him). Would I pay a lot for him? No. Then again, I don't think you'll have to give much as is the norm with nearing 30 year old RB's.

You think they used a top 10 draft pick on a RB to give him <10 carries/game?

It's not unprecedented. He is sometimes compared to Reggie Bush, who has 488 carries in 52 games thus far in his career. And he was the #2 pick overall. And the Saints seem to be happy with his production and role, given that they will pay him $8M this season to reportedly play the same role as last season, when he averaged just 5 carries per game.I know it's just one example, but it seems to be a very relevant example.

 

[Tau837]

My bad if this has already been discussed in this thread, but what are people's thoughts about Fred Jackson going into this season?

I expect Spiller to get somewhere between 250-300 touches.

IMO both ends of your range are at least 75 touches too high.

 

[Tau837]

My bad if this has already been discussed in this thread, but what are people's thoughts about Fred Jackson going into this season?

Better than Marshawn Lynch (2 years running). Don't care if Marshawn's in beast mode, bust mode or breaking the law mode. Jackson should get the majority of the carries there in 2010.--------------------------------

2010:

Spiller: I expect 6-8 carries a game with a presence in the receiving/ST game. Bush/Felix-like presence.

I expect Jackson to get 175+ carries. Guy's a solid football player (comparable to Derrick Ward IMO). I think Spiller will add a game breaking potential that they currently lack on offense.

Game plan in Buffalo should be running early and often. Don't know how successful that game plan will be if/when they get down. That QB situation is a disaster.

Hard to tell at this point how much Spiller will affect Jackson in the receiving game. Going on what we know today (which isn't much), I'd say Jackson's probably a lower half RB2 (RB18-24) in nonPPR and RB3 (RB25-36) in PPR for 2010.

--------------------

Long Term:

I see Spiller as a 150 carry back so I think the opportunity is there for Jackson to have a big role (150+ carries) for the next 2-3 seasons. He's still got a lot left in the tank (and has minimal usage on him). Would I pay a lot for him? No. Then again, I don't think you'll have to give much as is the norm with nearing 30 year old RB's.

You think they used a top 10 draft pick on a RB to give him <10 carries/game?

Reggie Bush: 52 career regular season games played, 488 carries.

 

[gianmarco]

My bad if this has already been discussed in this thread, but what are people's thoughts about Fred Jackson going into this season?

Better than Marshawn Lynch (2 years running). Don't care if Marshawn's in beast mode, bust mode or breaking the law mode. Jackson should get the majority of the carries there in 2010.--------------------------------

2010:

Spiller: I expect 6-8 carries a game with a presence in the receiving/ST game. Bush/Felix-like presence.

I expect Jackson to get 175+ carries. Guy's a solid football player (comparable to Derrick Ward IMO). I think Spiller will add a game breaking potential that they currently lack on offense.

Game plan in Buffalo should be running early and often. Don't know how successful that game plan will be if/when they get down. That QB situation is a disaster.

Hard to tell at this point how much Spiller will affect Jackson in the receiving game. Going on what we know today (which isn't much), I'd say Jackson's probably a lower half RB2 (RB18-24) in nonPPR and RB3 (RB25-36) in PPR for 2010.

--------------------

Long Term:

I see Spiller as a 150 carry back so I think the opportunity is there for Jackson to have a big role (150+ carries) for the next 2-3 seasons. He's still got a lot left in the tank (and has minimal usage on him). Would I pay a lot for him? No. Then again, I don't think you'll have to give much as is the norm with nearing 30 year old RB's.

You think they used a top 10 draft pick on a RB to give him <10 carries/game?

Reggie Bush: 52 career regular season games played, 488 carries.

Sure, let's look at Reggie Bush.

2006 -- His rookie year. He was sharing the backfield with a very talented Deuce McAllister who had 244 carries that year. Still, Bush logged 155 carries as a rookie that year.

2007 -- His 2nd year. He had 157 carries but he missed 4 games that year. That averages out to 13 carries/game or ~210 carries over a 16 game season.

2008 -- His 3rd year. Once again, Bush got injured in week 7 and missed more than half the year. However, through the 1st 6 games he had 78 carries, or 13 carries/game. Once again, this is ~210 carries/year.

2009 -- Bush is now obviously not going to be the lead back with both Bell and PT running more effectively.

In other words, Bush wasn't going to be a 250-300 carry RB but there's a significant difference in being a 200+ carry RB and never being more than a 150 carry RB. Also, the New Orleans offense was built to handle a RB like Bush paired with a "thunder" RB like Deuce due to the potent offense. Buffalo doesn't have that luxury at this point in time. And Fred Jackson isn't Deuce McAllister. So, while I don't see Spiller as a lock for a 250+ carry RB, I certainly see him getting more than 10 carries/game (in the longterm).

Bush is a perfectly fine example. What about Chris Johnson? In 2 years, he's had 251 and 358 carries even with a "bruiser" like LenDale White on board? Don't confuse my saying that he can get those carries as saying he's as good as CJ3. But, aside from Bush, most teams don't draft RBs that high and plan not to use them often unless there is a bonafide, talented, entrenched starter in place. Not longterm, at least.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

2006 -- His rookie year. He was sharing the backfield with a very talented Deuce McAllister who had 244 carries that year. Still, Bush logged 155 carries as a rookie that year.2007 -- His 2nd year. He had 157 carries but he missed 4 games that year. That averages out to 13 carries/game or ~210 carries over a 16 game season. 2008 -- His 3rd year. Once again, Bush got injured in week 7 and missed more than half the year. However, through the 1st 6 games he had 78 carries, or 13 carries/game. Once again, this is ~210 carries/year. 2009 -- Bush is now obviously not going to be the lead back with both Bell and PT running more effectively.In other words, Bush wasn't going to be a 250-300 carry RB but there's a significant difference in being a 200+ carry RB and never being more than a 150 carry RB. Also, the New Orleans offense was built to handle a RB like Bush paired with a "thunder" RB like Deuce due to the potent offense. Buffalo doesn't have that luxury at this point in time. And Fred Jackson isn't Deuce McAllister. So, while I don't see Spiller as a lock for a 250+ carry RB, I certainly see him getting more than 10 carries/game (in the longterm). Bush is a perfectly fine example. What about Chris Johnson? In 2 years, he's had 251 and 358 carries even with a "bruiser" like LenDale White on board? Don't confuse my saying that he can get those carries as saying he's as good as CJ3. But, aside from Bush, most teams don't draft RBs that high and plan not to use them often unless there is a bonafide, talented, entrenched starter in place. Not longterm, at least.

2006 - he didn't have 10 carries per game2007 - he had significantly more than 10 carries per game2008 - he barely had 10 carries per game (106 in 10 games)2009 - he didn't have 10 carries per gameYou suggested that no team would ever draft a RB in the top-10 and only give him 10 carries per game. Despite your attempt above to skew the stats, that's exactly what the Saints ended up doing.I'm not suggesting that Buffalo would be wise to follow their example - that's a different issue.

 

[gianmarco]

2006 -- His rookie year. He was sharing the backfield with a very talented Deuce McAllister who had 244 carries that year. Still, Bush logged 155 carries as a rookie that year.

2007 -- His 2nd year. He had 157 carries but he missed 4 games that year. That averages out to 13 carries/game or ~210 carries over a 16 game season.

2008 -- His 3rd year. Once again, Bush got injured in week 7 and missed more than half the year. However, through the 1st 6 games he had 78 carries, or 13 carries/game. Once again, this is ~210 carries/year.

2009 -- Bush is now obviously not going to be the lead back with both Bell and PT running more effectively.

In other words, Bush wasn't going to be a 250-300 carry RB but there's a significant difference in being a 200+ carry RB and never being more than a 150 carry RB. Also, the New Orleans offense was built to handle a RB like Bush paired with a "thunder" RB like Deuce due to the potent offense. Buffalo doesn't have that luxury at this point in time. And Fred Jackson isn't Deuce McAllister. So, while I don't see Spiller as a lock for a 250+ carry RB, I certainly see him getting more than 10 carries/game (in the longterm).

Bush is a perfectly fine example. What about Chris Johnson? In 2 years, he's had 251 and 358 carries even with a "bruiser" like LenDale White on board? Don't confuse my saying that he can get those carries as saying he's as good as CJ3. But, aside from Bush, most teams don't draft RBs that high and plan not to use them often unless there is a bonafide, talented, entrenched starter in place. Not longterm, at least.

2006 - he didn't have 10 carries per game2007 - he had significantly more than 10 carries per game

2008 - he barely had 10 carries per game (106 in 10 games)

2009 - he didn't have 10 carries per game

You suggested that no team would ever draft a RB in the top-10 and only give him 10 carries per game. Despite your attempt above to skew the stats, that's exactly what the Saints ended up doing.

I'm not suggesting that Buffalo would be wise to follow their example - that's a different issue.

I'm not "skewing" any stats. No, he didn't have 10 carries/game as a rookie. In his 2nd year, he had 13 carries/game. In his 4th year, he didn't have 10 carries/game. I stated all of the above. The discrepancy is 2008 and you need to consider the context. Look at his carries to start the year:14

10

18

10

12

14

9 (got injured in this game).

That's an average of 13 carries/game. He then didn't play again until week 13. He missed 5 straight weeks. During that time, Pierre Thomas took over and was ON FIRE. Bush came back from his knee injury (tried to come back too early, IIRC) and only played the next 3 games with carries of 3, 10, and 6. Now, if you want to factor those games when he came back from injury while PT was tearing it up to determine how the Saints planned on using him, go ahead. There was a clear usage pattern prior to that. He averaged 13 carries/game his 2nd year and he continued right at 13 carries/game until he got hurt again in his 3rd year. Since then, it's been clear he's just not the best RB on the team and the Saints have recognized that and aren't using him as such. If Spiller fails to perform well, I would expect the same to happen.

Now, if you think Spiller is going to disappoint, then sure, you can view him as <150 carry RB. But I can assure you that the Bills didn't draft him that high with plans of using him as such long term.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

You make a fair point Michael Fox, but I think you're the one skewing the numbers with Bush.

In 2006 he was right at 10 carries per game. In 2008 he was WELL over 10 carries per game until he got hurt. Looking at 106 carries in 10 games isn't really a fair comparison because you're counting both the game he got hurt in against him, and the three games after he came back from injury and was clearly still hobbled, and got a much smaller workload. He was averaging 13 carries per game and 20 touches per game prior to the injury.

By a few games into 2009 it was pretty clear to everyone that Bush just wasn't that good of a player, and couldn't stand up to the pounding of being a high workload player. But it's pretty clear that New Orleans had every intention of making Bush a high workload player up until the point where they figured out he just wasn't a very good running back.

2006: right at 10 carries per game

2007: well over 10 carries per game (and ~20 touches per game)

2008: well over 10 carries per game (and ~20 touches per game) prior to the injury.

From then on out, it was all downhill.

 

[gianmarco]

Let's look at RBs drafted in the 1st round in the past decade:

Michael Bennett -- 255 carries in year 2

LT -- obvious

Deuce -- obvious

William Green -- 243 attempts rookie

TJ Duckett -- 197 carries 2nd year

McGahee -- obvious

Larry Johnson -- obvious

Steven Jackson -- obvious

Chris Perry -- never healthy but would be one example

Kevin Jones -- obvious

Ronnie Brown -- obvious

Caddy -- obvious

Benson -- obvious

Bush -- discussed already

Maroney --- 175+ carries in 3 of 4 years while never playing a full 16 games

DeAngelo -- obvious

Addai -- obvious

AP -- obvious

Lynch -- obvious

McFadden -- A 2nd example but only 2 years in the league and not healthy his 2nd year

Felix -- see McFadden, but still only 2 years in the league

Mendenhall -- obvious

Chris Johnson -- obvious

Stewart -- obvious

Moreno -- obvious

Wells -- obvious

Donald Brown -- Still sitting behind Addai

Looking at that list, while there's some definite busts there, virtually every RB drafted in the 1st round like these guys was given the opportunity to get significant carries. For some it came sooner and others it came later, but unless there were other circumstances (injuries or entrenched talented starters), these guys were never looked at as 150 carry guys.

Bush and McFadden are the closest ones and we don't know what Oakland plans for McFadden this year. As for Bush, I've already stated above what the #'s are. The only way I can see Spiller being simply a 150 carry/year RB for the LONG-TERM (which is what was stated), is for one of the following to occur:

1) They plan on giving him many more touches in the receiving game a la Reggie Bush. This is definitely a possibility so Fred Jackson could have a good number of carries if this is Buffalo's plan

2) He gets injured often and simply can't handle any semblance of an NFL workload

3) He performs miserably. Even if this is the case, unless he's hurt, he'll at least get a shot over the next 2-3 years to have more carries.

However, if he stays healthy and doesn't completely bomb, I simply don't see Buffalo looking at him as nothing more than a 10 carry/game guy unless he gets a TREMENDOUS receiving workload. This is the only way I see him comparing to Reggie Bush.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Am I over-valuing Boldin and Slaton if I ask for the 1.02, 2.01, 2011 (2nd round), 2012 (3rd round) plus Matt Ryan ?

It may seem like a lot to ask for but with 75% of all draft picks either busting or underacheving I don't want to give up a top 10 WR in his prime plus a RB that was considered a 1st round redraft league player last year for only Ryan and the 1.02 and hope that the 1.02 is the next coming of Randy Moss (dez Bryant) or LT (Ryan Mathews)

Boldin is a great player when he is on the field he actually had better stats per game in 2008 then the great Fitzgerald.

Slaton was awesome in 2008.

If I had traded those 2 players to start the 2009 season I could have expected more in return. I know it is 2010 not 2009 but I think this is still a risky deal.

I put that offer out there to the other guy and will see what he thinks. I am torn right now on what to do.

Last year mid season I gave up Jamaal Charles to get Boldin right before Larry Johnson got released then Charles blew up and now is worth a ton. I think that might be part of the reason I am trying to deal Boldin and recoup some of the value I lost in the Charles deal.

Yes, laughably so.You can't sit around and wait for all of your players to bounce back to their career-year production level. Who cares if Slaton was "awesome" in 2008? He's a change-of-pace back coming off a potentially career-threatening neck surgery. With the Texans using a 2nd round pick on Ben Tate while also possessing Arian Foster, Slaton won't ever be used again the way he was as a rookie.

I can't believe you're actually "torn" here. You would have been ripping him off with the original trade offer.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

You make a fair point Michael Fox, but I think you're the one skewing the numbers with Bush.In 2006 he was right at 10 carries per game. In 2008 he was WELL over 10 carries per game until he got hurt. Looking at 106 carries in 10 games isn't really a fair comparison because you're counting both the game he got hurt in against him, and the three games after he came back from injury and was clearly still hobbled, and got a much smaller workload. He was averaging 13 carries per game and 20 touches per game prior to the injury.By a few games into 2009 it was pretty clear to everyone that Bush just wasn't that good of a player, and couldn't stand up to the pounding of being a high workload player. But it's pretty clear that New Orleans had every intention of making Bush a high workload player up until the point where they figured out he just wasn't a very good running back.2006: right at 10 carries per game2007: well over 10 carries per game (and ~20 touches per game)2008: well over 10 carries per game (and ~20 touches per game) prior to the injury.From then on out, it was all downhill.

I wasn't intentionally skewing anything. I was just lazy and looked at season-ending totals. Laziness is one of the driving forces in my life, especially on weekends. Again, I'm not suggesting Spiller will be used like Bush. I've made that pretty clear, so let's just get that out of the way.Anyway, so in two seasons where Bush (who Spiller has been compared to repeatedly) got a fuller load, he got ~ 13 carries per game and his body fell apart. 3 more carries than what gianmarco suggested was a ludicrous benchmark for Spiller. Remember, the discussion that got this started was about CARRIES, not TOUCHES.FWIW, I fully expect the Bills to give Spiller 13-17 carries per game, and 20-25 touches per game. gianmarco was the one who insisted that no team would ever draft a RB with the intent of giving them 10 carries a game or less as a rookie. By everyone's admission, during Bush's rookie year he only got ~10 carries per game.

 

[gianmarco]

You make a fair point Michael Fox, but I think you're the one skewing the numbers with Bush.

In 2006 he was right at 10 carries per game. In 2008 he was WELL over 10 carries per game until he got hurt. Looking at 106 carries in 10 games isn't really a fair comparison because you're counting both the game he got hurt in against him, and the three games after he came back from injury and was clearly still hobbled, and got a much smaller workload. He was averaging 13 carries per game and 20 touches per game prior to the injury.

By a few games into 2009 it was pretty clear to everyone that Bush just wasn't that good of a player, and couldn't stand up to the pounding of being a high workload player. But it's pretty clear that New Orleans had every intention of making Bush a high workload player up until the point where they figured out he just wasn't a very good running back.

2006: right at 10 carries per game

2007: well over 10 carries per game (and ~20 touches per game)

2008: well over 10 carries per game (and ~20 touches per game) prior to the injury.

From then on out, it was all downhill.

Thank you. This is exactly what I was pointing out. They never drafted Bush that high to limit his touches. Buffalo likewise didn't do the same with Spiller. You just don't waste a pick that high and pay a player that much money to use him sparingly.

 

[gianmarco]

You make a fair point Michael Fox, but I think you're the one skewing the numbers with Bush.

In 2006 he was right at 10 carries per game. In 2008 he was WELL over 10 carries per game until he got hurt. Looking at 106 carries in 10 games isn't really a fair comparison because you're counting both the game he got hurt in against him, and the three games after he came back from injury and was clearly still hobbled, and got a much smaller workload. He was averaging 13 carries per game and 20 touches per game prior to the injury.

By a few games into 2009 it was pretty clear to everyone that Bush just wasn't that good of a player, and couldn't stand up to the pounding of being a high workload player. But it's pretty clear that New Orleans had every intention of making Bush a high workload player up until the point where they figured out he just wasn't a very good running back.

2006: right at 10 carries per game

2007: well over 10 carries per game (and ~20 touches per game)

2008: well over 10 carries per game (and ~20 touches per game) prior to the injury.

From then on out, it was all downhill.

I wasn't intentionally skewing anything. I was just lazy and looked at season-ending totals. Laziness is one of the driving forces in my life, especially on weekends. Again, I'm not suggesting Spiller will be used like Bush. I've made that pretty clear, so let's just get that out of the way.

Anyway, so in two seasons where Bush (who Spiller has been compared to repeatedly) got a fuller load, he got ~ 13 carries per game and his body fell apart. 3 more carries than what gianmarco suggested was a ludicrous benchmark for Spiller. Remember, the discussion that got this started was about CARRIES, not TOUCHES.

FWIW, I fully expect the Bills to give Spiller 13-17 carries per game, and 20-25 touches per game. gianmarco was the one who insisted that no team would ever draft a RB with the intent of giving them 10 carries a game or less as a rookie. By everyone's admission, during Bush's rookie year he only got ~10 carries per game.

Whoa, there. "As a rookie" was NEVER part of the argument. Check the post I responded to. It CLEARLY states "long-term". I think it's very possible that Spiller only gets 10 carries/game as a rookie. However, that is not their intention for the next few years. And with Bush, it wasn't their intention either.

ETA--Keep in mind that I also responded with a simple question of "You think they used a top 10 draft pick on a RB to give him <10 carries/game? " when D'Ohtis stated he viewed Spiller as a 150 carry RB for the long-term. It could be that he views him that way because he thinks he will underperform or because he will be oft-injured. If that's the case, then I'd like for him to say so. That's why I asked the question. However, if he doesn't see either of the above, then it must be because he thinks Buffalo only intends to use him that infrequently and I continue to vehemently disagree with that idea. After I stated that, two posters brought up Reggie Bush. And while Reggie Bush hasn't been a high carry RB, it's obvious by his usage in his 2nd/3rd year that it wasn't their original intention to limit him to 10 carries/game even with his heavy receiving workload.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Let's look at RBs drafted in the 1st round in the past decade:Michael Bennett -- 255 carries in year 2LT -- obviousDeuce -- obviousWilliam Green -- 243 attempts rookieTJ Duckett -- 197 carries 2nd yearMcGahee -- obviousLarry Johnson -- obviousSteven Jackson -- obviousChris Perry -- never healthy but would be one exampleKevin Jones -- obviousRonnie Brown -- obviousCaddy -- obviousBenson -- obviousBush -- discussed alreadyMaroney --- 175+ carries in 3 of 4 years while never playing a full 16 gamesDeAngelo -- obviousAddai -- obviousAP -- obviousLynch -- obviousMcFadden -- A 2nd example but only 2 years in the league and not healthy his 2nd yearFelix -- see McFadden, but still only 2 years in the leagueMendenhall -- obviousChris Johnson -- obviousStewart -- obviousMoreno -- obviousWells -- obviousDonald Brown -- Still sitting behind AddaiLooking at that list, while there's some definite busts there, virtually every RB drafted in the 1st round like these guys was given the opportunity to get significant carries. For some it came sooner and others it came later, but unless there were other circumstances (injuries or entrenched talented starters), these guys were never looked at as 150 carry guys. Bush and McFadden are the closest ones and we don't know what Oakland plans for McFadden this year. As for Bush, I've already stated above what the #'s are. The only way I can see Spiller being simply a 150 carry/year RB for the LONG-TERM (which is what was stated), is for one of the following to occur:1) They plan on giving him many more touches in the receiving game a la Reggie Bush. This is definitely a possibility so Fred Jackson could have a good number of carries if this is Buffalo's plan2) He gets injured often and simply can't handle any semblance of an NFL workload3) He performs miserably. Even if this is the case, unless he's hurt, he'll at least get a shot over the next 2-3 years to have more carries.However, if he stays healthy and doesn't completely bomb, I simply don't see Buffalo looking at him as nothing more than a 10 carry/game guy unless he gets a TREMENDOUS receiving workload. This is the only way I see him comparing to Reggie Bush.

Bush and McFadden are the two guys he gets compared to most often.Beyond that, I agree with everything you typed. And have similar expectations for Spiller.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Whoa, there. "As a rookie" was NEVER part of the argument. Check the post I responded to. It CLEARLY states "long-term". I think it's very possible that Spiller only gets 10 carries/game as a rookie. However, that is not their intention for the next few years. And with Bush, it wasn't their intention either.

My mistake. Agreed that it isn't reasonable to expect him to get 10 carries/game in the long-term.

 

[EBF]

Whether or not Spiller's carries will be limited depends mostly on two questions:

- Does he deserve carries?

- Can he stay healthy?

The reason Reggie Bush and Darren McFadden get less than 10 carries per game is because they're bad runners. The reason Felix Jones gets less than 10 carries per game is because he constantly gets injured (thus far). Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles probably weren't slated for 20+ carries per game when they entered the league, but because they've been effective and because they've stayed healthy (thus far), their teams have come to rely on them.

Buffalo's intentions for Spiller are far less important than his performance. His workload will ultimately depend on his ability to run the ball effectively and stay healthy. Personally, I see him as a guy who would work best in a RBBC, but that doesn't mean he won't become the workhorse if he plays well and holds up from a durability standpoint.

 

[gianmarco]

Whether or not Spiller's carries will be limited depends mostly on two questions:- Does he deserve carries?- Can he stay healthy?The reason Reggie Bush and Darren McFadden get less than 10 carries per game is because they're bad runners. The reason Felix Jones gets less than 10 carries per game is because he constantly gets injured (thus far). Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles probably weren't slated for 20+ carries per game when they entered the league, but because they've been effective and because they've stayed healthy (thus far), their teams have come to rely on them. Buffalo's intentions for Spiller are far less important than his performance. His workload will ultimately depend on his ability to run the ball effectively and stay healthy. Personally, I see him as a guy who would work best in a RBBC, but that doesn't mean he won't become the workhorse if he plays well and holds up from a durability standpoint.

I agree with this for the most part. I would only disagree in terms of "does he deserve carries" limiting his carries. It might limit it in year 4 or beyond (roughly), but not before as he's going to be given every opportunity to succeed and show definitively that he doesn't deserve them. The vast majority of the time, 1st round pedigree players are given a longer leash and logically so. In other words, as long as he stays healthy, you can expect a decent workload most likely starting by his 2nd year at the latest and carrying into his 3rd year. If he fails after those 3 years, then his carries will surely go down, but not before.So, the only reason his carries will be limited before that time are because he isn't on the field (stay healthy) or they use him mostly in the receiving game and give F. Jackson the bulk of the carries. It's not as if this guy is sitting behind DeAngelo Williams or Adrian Peterson.

 

[doowain]

Whether or not Spiller's carries will be limited depends mostly on two questions:- Does he deserve carries?- Can he stay healthy?The reason Reggie Bush and Darren McFadden get less than 10 carries per game is because they're bad runners. The reason Felix Jones gets less than 10 carries per game is because he constantly gets injured (thus far). Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles probably weren't slated for 20+ carries per game when they entered the league, but because they've been effective and because they've stayed healthy (thus far), their teams have come to rely on them. Buffalo's intentions for Spiller are far less important than his performance. His workload will ultimately depend on his ability to run the ball effectively and stay healthy. Personally, I see him as a guy who would work best in a RBBC, but that doesn't mean he won't become the workhorse if he plays well and holds up from a durability standpoint.

Aren't these the same questions that are asked for every RB? Is he good and is he healthy. Got it.For a guy who never missed a game in college due to an injury I really don't get all of the injury worry about Spiller. He even played through injuries, which should speak to his toughness.Do I need to pull up the stats from the game against FSU where he tore through them with a bum wheel?Keep letting him slide to 1.04 in rookie drafts and I'll continue to acquire the 1.04 in every draft I can. TIA.

 

[moderated]

Whether or not Spiller's carries will be limited depends mostly on two questions:- Does he deserve carries?- Can he stay healthy?The reason Reggie Bush and Darren McFadden get less than 10 carries per game is because they're bad runners. The reason Felix Jones gets less than 10 carries per game is because he constantly gets injured (thus far). Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles probably weren't slated for 20+ carries per game when they entered the league, but because they've been effective and because they've stayed healthy (thus far), their teams have come to rely on them. Buffalo's intentions for Spiller are far less important than his performance. His workload will ultimately depend on his ability to run the ball effectively and stay healthy. Personally, I see him as a guy who would work best in a RBBC, but that doesn't mean he won't become the workhorse if he plays well and holds up from a durability standpoint.

Aren't these the same questions that are asked for every RB? Is he good and is he healthy. Got it.For a guy who never missed a game in college due to an injury I really don't get all of the injury worry about Spiller. He even played through injuries, which should speak to his toughness.Do I need to pull up the stats from the game against FSU where he tore through them with a bum wheel?Keep letting him slide to 1.04 in rookie drafts and I'll continue to acquire the 1.04 in every draft I can. TIA.

For some reason spiller brings out a lot of doubters for areas where he has been far above average like injuries. Not sure I've ever seen a prospect who never missed a game be listed as a big injury risk.I don't even think he ever missed a game in high school.His past definitely doesn't point to him missing a lot of games in the future. Every player gets banged up, and if they play through bumps and bruises they should be commended, not criticized.

 

[Tau837]

FWIW, I fully expect the Bills to give Spiller 13-17 carries per game, and 20-25 touches per game.

So you are expecting:1. Up to 400 touches per 16 games, presumably not including any kick/punt returns he may handle?2. Up to 8 catches per game? That's 128 catches per 16 games.These are utterly ridiculous numbers IMO.

 

[ookook]

I think it may be much more like 10 to 15 touches at least for the first half of the season.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

FWIW, I fully expect the Bills to give Spiller 13-17 carries per game, and 20-25 touches per game.

So you are expecting:1. Up to 400 touches per 16 games, presumably not including any kick/punt returns he may handle?2. Up to 8 catches per game? That's 128 catches per 16 games.These are utterly ridiculous numbers IMO.

I include kick/punt returns in "touches". And my expectations for carries are probably closer to 13/game than 17/game.So per game:13-14 carries3-4 catches3-5 returns=19-23 touches per game. Close enough for govt. workWhich of those assumptions do you disagree with?Edit to add: these are my long-term assumptions for Spiller. In 2010, his workload could be 60-70% of that, especially early in the season.

 

[ookook]

Well now that you have clarified, you might be close.

But I suspect most of us do NOT include returns as "touches" and thought you were talking short term.

 

[thecardiackid]

Just wanted to say thanks for entertaining me during a 7 hr. layover in Lima, Peru today. I saved about 10+ pages of this thread to pass the time @ the airport, and it (along with several adult beverages) has worked very well. Having the 1.1 and 1.3 in one upcoming draft, the Spiller v. Best debate was great. (though i think my eyes and the head injuries have me going w/ Gian on this one).

And Chirs, I managed another banner last year (2/3 since the leauge started in '07) - so I owe you at least another pitcher of Fat Tire when you do make it to Denver. You'd better make the trip soon, or it's going to turn into a weekend bender.

Thanks boys!

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Well now that you have clarified, you might be close.But I suspect most of us do NOT include returns as "touches" and thought you were talking short term.

For a guy like Spiller, "touches" has to include returns. I'm not sure how different his short-term vs long-term "touches" (whichever definition you use) will look dramatically different - maybe for 1st half 2010 vs. 2nd half 2010. But by the 2nd half of this season, we should have a solid idea whether or not Spiller is a player.

 

[Tau837]

FWIW, I fully expect the Bills to give Spiller 13-17 carries per game, and 20-25 touches per game.

So you are expecting:1. Up to 400 touches per 16 games, presumably not including any kick/punt returns he may handle?2. Up to 8 catches per game? That's 128 catches per 16 games.These are utterly ridiculous numbers IMO.

I include kick/punt returns in "touches". And my expectations for carries are probably closer to 13/game than 17/game.So per game:13-14 carries3-4 catches3-5 returns=19-23 touches per game. Close enough for govt. workWhich of those assumptions do you disagree with?Edit to add: these are my long-term assumptions for Spiller. In 2010, his workload could be 60-70% of that, especially early in the season.

Well, that's a lot different. Most of the time when people refer to touches for players they are not including kick and punt returns. As I stated in my first point above, I was assuming you were not including them. I will assume he plays 16 games for all of my questions and comments:1. You are expecting 48 to 80 returns per season. Are you expecting him to return both punts and kickoffs? On the low end of your projection, he might do just one or the other, but on the high end he almost certainly has to be doing both. But then that begs the question, what is Simpson doing? Initially, I expected him to be used extensively on returns, but when the Bills signed Simpson, I thought that might indicate they would preserve Spiller mostly for offense.2. I think it is fairly rare that a RB has a lot of kick/punt returns *and* 200+ combined carries and receptions. On the low end of your returns projection, Fred Jackson and Jamaal Charles were relatively close on the returns and had more than 200 offensive touches. I suppose Jackson's 2009 usage suggests that the Bills are willing to use a key RB on returns. But if you go towards the middle to high end of your returns projection range, I think it's extremely rare for a RB with that many returns to approach 200 offensive touches. No one did last year, and I'm not aware of any example from recent seasons.3. So for the above reasons, I think you are either expecting too many returns or too many offensive touches. Probably the former.4. You are expecting 208-224 carries. I think your top end is reasonable long term, assuming there is no more than one other RB on the team with a significant role (i.e., getting substantial carries). However, I'd use a lower floor... maybe 10-14 carries per game.5. You are expecting 48-80 receptions. I strongly doubt that he will ever have a season with a number of receptions in the top half of your range. The top of your range is more receptions than all Buffalo RBs combined have had in recent years. I haven't researched Gailey's history in terms of throwing to RBs, so maybe that will be a positive, I don't know. And it's true that from day one Spiller is likely the best playmaker on the offense, so I get that they will try to get him the ball in the passing game. Still, I can't see more than 60 receptions as being at all likely in any given season. And I don't think 48 is his floor, either.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

FWIW, I fully expect the Bills to give Spiller 13-17 carries per game, and 20-25 touches per game.

So you are expecting:1. Up to 400 touches per 16 games, presumably not including any kick/punt returns he may handle?2. Up to 8 catches per game? That's 128 catches per 16 games.These are utterly ridiculous numbers IMO.

I include kick/punt returns in "touches". And my expectations for carries are probably closer to 13/game than 17/game.So per game:13-14 carries3-4 catches3-5 returns=19-23 touches per game. Close enough for govt. workWhich of those assumptions do you disagree with?Edit to add: these are my long-term assumptions for Spiller. In 2010, his workload could be 60-70% of that, especially early in the season.

Well, that's a lot different. Most of the time when people refer to touches for players they are not including kick and punt returns. As I stated in my first point above, I was assuming you were not including them. I will assume he plays 16 games for all of my questions and comments:1. You are expecting 48 to 80 returns per season. Are you expecting him to return both punts and kickoffs? On the low end of your projection, he might do just one or the other, but on the high end he almost certainly has to be doing both. But then that begs the question, what is Simpson doing? Initially, I expected him to be used extensively on returns, but when the Bills signed Simpson, I thought that might indicate they would preserve Spiller mostly for offense.2. I think it is fairly rare that a RB has a lot of kick/punt returns *and* 200+ combined carries and receptions. On the low end of your returns projection, Fred Jackson and Jamaal Charles were relatively close on the returns and had more than 200 offensive touches. I suppose Jackson's 2009 usage suggests that the Bills are willing to use a key RB on returns. But if you go towards the middle to high end of your returns projection range, I think it's extremely rare for a RB with that many returns to approach 200 offensive touches. No one did last year, and I'm not aware of any example from recent seasons.3. So for the above reasons, I think you are either expecting too many returns or too many offensive touches. Probably the former.4. You are expecting 208-224 carries. I think your top end is reasonable long term, assuming there is no more than one other RB on the team with a significant role (i.e., getting substantial carries). However, I'd use a lower floor... maybe 10-14 carries per game.5. You are expecting 48-80 receptions. I strongly doubt that he will ever have a season with a number of receptions in the top half of your range. The top of your range is more receptions than all Buffalo RBs combined have had in recent years. I haven't researched Gailey's history in terms of throwing to RBs, so maybe that will be a positive, I don't know. And it's true that from day one Spiller is likely the best playmaker on the offense, so I get that they will try to get him the ball in the passing game. Still, I can't see more than 60 receptions as being at all likely in any given season. And I don't think 48 is his floor, either.

Perhaps you could, in addition, share your projections of his workload. Rather than just taking shots. Others might find it helpful to contrast.Edit to add: - Few RBs are considered the type of multi-purpose threat that Spiller is, so it would be weird to ignore his return "touches"- If Spiller does NOT get many touches as a returner, it's likely because he is being used more extensively as a runner/receiver- If Spiller DOES get a bunch of touches as a returner, it's still unlikely that he gets significantly fewer than a dozen carries per game plus 2-3 catches- It doesn't seem like our overall projections would be that different; you assume a floor that is below Reggie Bush, and I don't- If anything, looking over my projections now I probably OVER-estimated any likely return touches. Bush averaged 2 punt returns a game in 3 of his 4 seasons (where used as a primary punt returner). Felix Jones averaged 2 kickoff returns per game in the games he played. So my projection of 3-5 returns per game implicitly assumes that Spiller returns punts AND kicks, which seems excessive.

 

[gianmarco]

FWIW, I fully expect the Bills to give Spiller 13-17 carries per game, and 20-25 touches per game.

So you are expecting:1. Up to 400 touches per 16 games, presumably not including any kick/punt returns he may handle?

2. Up to 8 catches per game? That's 128 catches per 16 games.

These are utterly ridiculous numbers IMO.

I include kick/punt returns in "touches". And my expectations for carries are probably closer to 13/game than 17/game.So per game:

13-14 carries

3-4 catches

3-5 returns

=

19-23 touches per game. Close enough for govt. work

Which of those assumptions do you disagree with?

Edit to add: these are my long-term assumptions for Spiller. In 2010, his workload could be 60-70% of that, especially early in the season.

Well, that's a lot different. Most of the time when people refer to touches for players they are not including kick and punt returns. As I stated in my first point above, I was assuming you were not including them. I will assume he plays 16 games for all of my questions and comments:1. You are expecting 48 to 80 returns per season. Are you expecting him to return both punts and kickoffs? On the low end of your projection, he might do just one or the other, but on the high end he almost certainly has to be doing both. But then that begs the question, what is Simpson doing? Initially, I expected him to be used extensively on returns, but when the Bills signed Simpson, I thought that might indicate they would preserve Spiller mostly for offense.

2. I think it is fairly rare that a RB has a lot of kick/punt returns *and* 200+ combined carries and receptions. On the low end of your returns projection, Fred Jackson and Jamaal Charles were relatively close on the returns and had more than 200 offensive touches. I suppose Jackson's 2009 usage suggests that the Bills are willing to use a key RB on returns. But if you go towards the middle to high end of your returns projection range, I think it's extremely rare for a RB with that many returns to approach 200 offensive touches. No one did last year, and I'm not aware of any example from recent seasons.

3. So for the above reasons, I think you are either expecting too many returns or too many offensive touches. Probably the former.

4. You are expecting 208-224 carries. I think your top end is reasonable long term, assuming there is no more than one other RB on the team with a significant role (i.e., getting substantial carries). However, I'd use a lower floor... maybe 10-14 carries per game.

5. You are expecting 48-80 receptions. I strongly doubt that he will ever have a season with a number of receptions in the top half of your range. The top of your range is more receptions than all Buffalo RBs combined have had in recent years. I haven't researched Gailey's history in terms of throwing to RBs, so maybe that will be a positive, I don't know. And it's true that from day one Spiller is likely the best playmaker on the offense, so I get that they will try to get him the ball in the passing game. Still, I can't see more than 60 receptions as being at all likely in any given season. And I don't think 48 is his floor, either.

A couple things. Firstly, he said 3-4 receptions/game which puts him at 48-60 for the year. You misread his returns for his receptions and thus most of your point in #5 isn't applicable. His numbers are NOT suggesting 80 receptions on the year. I'd also add that it's obvious he's using whole numbers. Thus, if he were to say 2-4/game, then that's only 32 receptions for the year as a floor and I'd say that's on the low side as well. Unless he gives an actual range or starts using fractionated numbers for his overall projections, then you're looking at swings of 16 when factored for the full season. Needless to say, his reception numbers are pretty reasonable whether or not you agree with them and to nitpick them when they are obvious "rough" estimates and not 1) fractionated or 2) season totals is a little overzealous. Secondly, again, your "floor" of 10 carries/game just doesn't make sense. It's very unlikely he's limited to 10 carries/game in the longterm with the exception of the reasons outlined above. It's virtually unprecedented for 1st round RBs. 12-13 carries is a reasonable floor (only 190-210 carries) and leaves significant room for more carries as a ceiling (see many other 1st round RBs, even "smaller" ones). Lowering those #'s to a floor of 10 carries/game is a lot more unreasonable than maintaining a floor of 13-14 and projecting a ceiling of 17-18 based on previous history of 1st round RBs and common sense.

The fact that you're suggesting that BOTH his reception floor of 40's as well as carry floor of 13/game are too high suggests that you either think he's going to completely flop or that Buffalo spent the #9 overall pick on nothing more than a role player. It's your prerogative to believe the former but I actually think you're leaning more toward the latter and it makes very little sense. It doesn't matter if you like Spiller or not. It's pretty clear that Buffalo does based on drafting him as high as they did. Until he fails miserably or simply can't stay on the field (which, as pointed out above, hasn't been an issue of his throughout his college career), make no mistake that Buffalo will be getting him the ball.

 

[Tau837]

FWIW, I fully expect the Bills to give Spiller 13-17 carries per game, and 20-25 touches per game.

So you are expecting:1. Up to 400 touches per 16 games, presumably not including any kick/punt returns he may handle?2. Up to 8 catches per game? That's 128 catches per 16 games.These are utterly ridiculous numbers IMO.

I include kick/punt returns in "touches". And my expectations for carries are probably closer to 13/game than 17/game.So per game:13-14 carries3-4 catches3-5 returns=19-23 touches per game. Close enough for govt. workWhich of those assumptions do you disagree with?Edit to add: these are my long-term assumptions for Spiller. In 2010, his workload could be 60-70% of that, especially early in the season.

Well, that's a lot different. Most of the time when people refer to touches for players they are not including kick and punt returns. As I stated in my first point above, I was assuming you were not including them. I will assume he plays 16 games for all of my questions and comments:1. You are expecting 48 to 80 returns per season. Are you expecting him to return both punts and kickoffs? On the low end of your projection, he might do just one or the other, but on the high end he almost certainly has to be doing both. But then that begs the question, what is Simpson doing? Initially, I expected him to be used extensively on returns, but when the Bills signed Simpson, I thought that might indicate they would preserve Spiller mostly for offense.2. I think it is fairly rare that a RB has a lot of kick/punt returns *and* 200+ combined carries and receptions. On the low end of your returns projection, Fred Jackson and Jamaal Charles were relatively close on the returns and had more than 200 offensive touches. I suppose Jackson's 2009 usage suggests that the Bills are willing to use a key RB on returns. But if you go towards the middle to high end of your returns projection range, I think it's extremely rare for a RB with that many returns to approach 200 offensive touches. No one did last year, and I'm not aware of any example from recent seasons.3. So for the above reasons, I think you are either expecting too many returns or too many offensive touches. Probably the former.4. You are expecting 208-224 carries. I think your top end is reasonable long term, assuming there is no more than one other RB on the team with a significant role (i.e., getting substantial carries). However, I'd use a lower floor... maybe 10-14 carries per game.5. You are expecting 48-80 receptions. I strongly doubt that he will ever have a season with a number of receptions in the top half of your range. The top of your range is more receptions than all Buffalo RBs combined have had in recent years. I haven't researched Gailey's history in terms of throwing to RBs, so maybe that will be a positive, I don't know. And it's true that from day one Spiller is likely the best playmaker on the offense, so I get that they will try to get him the ball in the passing game. Still, I can't see more than 60 receptions as being at all likely in any given season. And I don't think 48 is his floor, either.

Perhaps you could, in addition, share your projections of his workload. Rather than just taking shots. Others might find it helpful to contrast.Edit to add: - Few RBs are considered the type of multi-purpose threat that Spiller is, so it would be weird to ignore his return "touches"- If Spiller does NOT get many touches as a returner, it's likely because he is being used more extensively as a runner/receiver- If Spiller DOES get a bunch of touches as a returner, it's still unlikely that he gets significantly fewer than a dozen carries per game plus 2-3 catches- It doesn't seem like our overall projections would be that different; you assume a floor that is below Reggie Bush, and I don't- If anything, looking over my projections now I probably OVER-estimated any likely return touches. Bush averaged 2 punt returns a game in 3 of his 4 seasons (where used as a primary punt returner). Felix Jones averaged 2 kickoff returns per game in the games he played. So my projection of 3-5 returns per game implicitly assumes that Spiller returns punts AND kicks, which seems excessive.

I wasn't taking shots. You asked which assumptions I disagreed with, so I responded to discuss your assumptions individually. As gian pointed out subsequently, I misread the returns as receptions when I got to that point, so my comment on that was off.In your edit, it's hard to quantify what you means as "a bunch" of returns. I think he is probably going to average about 260 total touches (including returns) per season (16 games) for his career. And that includes his rookie season, which will probably be lower, so long term that means he'll average a bit more than that IMO.So if he gets 40 returns, that means I'd estimate 220 combined carries and receptions, which I'd probably break down as 180 carries and 40 receptions. If he gets 20 returns, then obviously his carries and receptions go up accordingly... maybe 195 carries and 45 catches. You get the picture.So, yes, I think my projections are considerably lower than yours. Your 19-23 touches per game means 304-368 touches per 16 games, which is a lot more than I expect.

 

[Tau837]

FWIW, I fully expect the Bills to give Spiller 13-17 carries per game, and 20-25 touches per game.

So you are expecting:1. Up to 400 touches per 16 games, presumably not including any kick/punt returns he may handle?

2. Up to 8 catches per game? That's 128 catches per 16 games.

These are utterly ridiculous numbers IMO.

I include kick/punt returns in "touches". And my expectations for carries are probably closer to 13/game than 17/game.So per game:

13-14 carries

3-4 catches

3-5 returns

=

19-23 touches per game. Close enough for govt. work

Which of those assumptions do you disagree with?

Edit to add: these are my long-term assumptions for Spiller. In 2010, his workload could be 60-70% of that, especially early in the season.

Well, that's a lot different. Most of the time when people refer to touches for players they are not including kick and punt returns. As I stated in my first point above, I was assuming you were not including them. I will assume he plays 16 games for all of my questions and comments:1. You are expecting 48 to 80 returns per season. Are you expecting him to return both punts and kickoffs? On the low end of your projection, he might do just one or the other, but on the high end he almost certainly has to be doing both. But then that begs the question, what is Simpson doing? Initially, I expected him to be used extensively on returns, but when the Bills signed Simpson, I thought that might indicate they would preserve Spiller mostly for offense.

2. I think it is fairly rare that a RB has a lot of kick/punt returns *and* 200+ combined carries and receptions. On the low end of your returns projection, Fred Jackson and Jamaal Charles were relatively close on the returns and had more than 200 offensive touches. I suppose Jackson's 2009 usage suggests that the Bills are willing to use a key RB on returns. But if you go towards the middle to high end of your returns projection range, I think it's extremely rare for a RB with that many returns to approach 200 offensive touches. No one did last year, and I'm not aware of any example from recent seasons.

3. So for the above reasons, I think you are either expecting too many returns or too many offensive touches. Probably the former.

4. You are expecting 208-224 carries. I think your top end is reasonable long term, assuming there is no more than one other RB on the team with a significant role (i.e., getting substantial carries). However, I'd use a lower floor... maybe 10-14 carries per game.

5. You are expecting 48-80 receptions. I strongly doubt that he will ever have a season with a number of receptions in the top half of your range. The top of your range is more receptions than all Buffalo RBs combined have had in recent years. I haven't researched Gailey's history in terms of throwing to RBs, so maybe that will be a positive, I don't know. And it's true that from day one Spiller is likely the best playmaker on the offense, so I get that they will try to get him the ball in the passing game. Still, I can't see more than 60 receptions as being at all likely in any given season. And I don't think 48 is his floor, either.

A couple things. Firstly, he said 3-4 receptions/game which puts him at 48-60 for the year. You misread his returns for his receptions and thus most of your point in #5 isn't applicable. His numbers are NOT suggesting 80 receptions on the year. I'd also add that it's obvious he's using whole numbers. Thus, if he were to say 2-4/game, then that's only 32 receptions for the year as a floor and I'd say that's on the low side as well. Unless he gives an actual range or starts using fractionated numbers for his overall projections, then you're looking at swings of 16 when factored for the full season. Needless to say, his reception numbers are pretty reasonable whether or not you agree with them and to nitpick them when they are obvious "rough" estimates and not 1) fractionated or 2) season totals is a little overzealous. Secondly, again, your "floor" of 10 carries/game just doesn't make sense. It's very unlikely he's limited to 10 carries/game in the longterm with the exception of the reasons outlined above. It's virtually unprecedented for 1st round RBs. 12-13 carries is a reasonable floor (only 190-210 carries) and leaves significant room for more carries as a ceiling (see many other 1st round RBs, even "smaller" ones). Lowering those #'s to a floor of 10 carries/game is a lot more unreasonable than maintaining a floor of 13-14 and projecting a ceiling of 17-18 based on previous history of 1st round RBs and common sense.

The fact that you're suggesting that BOTH his reception floor of 40's as well as carry floor of 13/game are too high suggests that you either think he's going to completely flop or that Buffalo spent the #9 overall pick on nothing more than a role player. It's your prerogative to believe the former but I actually think you're leaning more toward the latter and it makes very little sense. It doesn't matter if you like Spiller or not. It's pretty clear that Buffalo does based on drafting him as high as they did. Until he fails miserably or simply can't stay on the field (which, as pointed out above, hasn't been an issue of his throughout his college career), make no mistake that Buffalo will be getting him the ball.

1. See my previous post for some relevant discussion.2. MF specifically asked me to state what I disagree with about those numbers, and I responded to his request. So I'm not sure why you see my post as nitpicking or "overzealous". The fact is that my projections are far different from his.

3. Aside from that, you and MF may be right, we'll see. Until then, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

 

[ebcpastor2004]

This is the link to a post I made in the Assistant Coach forum. It contains a roster I'm rebuilding for a Zealots team I took over in August 2009. The post was pretty long so I opted not to paste it here. If someone else wants to post for discussion I'd be fine with that.

I think I've got a pretty good nucleus going & want to get some thoughts (pats on the back) & analysis (kicks in the pants), specifically from F & L, SSOG, JWB, etc... you regular guys who are familiar with a number of different kinds of leagues & understand Zealots scoring.

Remember I've not even had the team a full year yet, so there's still more I want to do- certainly a QB upgrade is at the top of the list.

TIA

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=534160

 

[gianmarco]

So you are expecting:

1. Up to 400 touches per 16 games, presumably not including any kick/punt returns he may handle?

2. Up to 8 catches per game? That's 128 catches per 16 games.

These are utterly ridiculous numbers IMO.

I include kick/punt returns in "touches". And my expectations for carries are probably closer to 13/game than 17/game.So per game:

13-14 carries

3-4 catches

3-5 returns

=

19-23 touches per game. Close enough for govt. work

Which of those assumptions do you disagree with?

Edit to add: these are my long-term assumptions for Spiller. In 2010, his workload could be 60-70% of that, especially early in the season.

Well, that's a lot different. Most of the time when people refer to touches for players they are not including kick and punt returns. As I stated in my first point above, I was assuming you were not including them. I will assume he plays 16 games for all of my questions and comments:1. You are expecting 48 to 80 returns per season. Are you expecting him to return both punts and kickoffs? On the low end of your projection, he might do just one or the other, but on the high end he almost certainly has to be doing both. But then that begs the question, what is Simpson doing? Initially, I expected him to be used extensively on returns, but when the Bills signed Simpson, I thought that might indicate they would preserve Spiller mostly for offense.

2. I think it is fairly rare that a RB has a lot of kick/punt returns *and* 200+ combined carries and receptions. On the low end of your returns projection, Fred Jackson and Jamaal Charles were relatively close on the returns and had more than 200 offensive touches. I suppose Jackson's 2009 usage suggests that the Bills are willing to use a key RB on returns. But if you go towards the middle to high end of your returns projection range, I think it's extremely rare for a RB with that many returns to approach 200 offensive touches. No one did last year, and I'm not aware of any example from recent seasons.

3. So for the above reasons, I think you are either expecting too many returns or too many offensive touches. Probably the former.

4. You are expecting 208-224 carries. I think your top end is reasonable long term, assuming there is no more than one other RB on the team with a significant role (i.e., getting substantial carries). However, I'd use a lower floor... maybe 10-14 carries per game.

5. You are expecting 48-80 receptions. I strongly doubt that he will ever have a season with a number of receptions in the top half of your range. The top of your range is more receptions than all Buffalo RBs combined have had in recent years. I haven't researched Gailey's history in terms of throwing to RBs, so maybe that will be a positive, I don't know. And it's true that from day one Spiller is likely the best playmaker on the offense, so I get that they will try to get him the ball in the passing game. Still, I can't see more than 60 receptions as being at all likely in any given season. And I don't think 48 is his floor, either.

A couple things. Firstly, he said 3-4 receptions/game which puts him at 48-60 for the year. You misread his returns for his receptions and thus most of your point in #5 isn't applicable. His numbers are NOT suggesting 80 receptions on the year. I'd also add that it's obvious he's using whole numbers. Thus, if he were to say 2-4/game, then that's only 32 receptions for the year as a floor and I'd say that's on the low side as well. Unless he gives an actual range or starts using fractionated numbers for his overall projections, then you're looking at swings of 16 when factored for the full season. Needless to say, his reception numbers are pretty reasonable whether or not you agree with them and to nitpick them when they are obvious "rough" estimates and not 1) fractionated or 2) season totals is a little overzealous. Secondly, again, your "floor" of 10 carries/game just doesn't make sense. It's very unlikely he's limited to 10 carries/game in the longterm with the exception of the reasons outlined above. It's virtually unprecedented for 1st round RBs. 12-13 carries is a reasonable floor (only 190-210 carries) and leaves significant room for more carries as a ceiling (see many other 1st round RBs, even "smaller" ones). Lowering those #'s to a floor of 10 carries/game is a lot more unreasonable than maintaining a floor of 13-14 and projecting a ceiling of 17-18 based on previous history of 1st round RBs and common sense.

The fact that you're suggesting that BOTH his reception floor of 40's as well as carry floor of 13/game are too high suggests that you either think he's going to completely flop or that Buffalo spent the #9 overall pick on nothing more than a role player. It's your prerogative to believe the former but I actually think you're leaning more toward the latter and it makes very little sense. It doesn't matter if you like Spiller or not. It's pretty clear that Buffalo does based on drafting him as high as they did. Until he fails miserably or simply can't stay on the field (which, as pointed out above, hasn't been an issue of his throughout his college career), make no mistake that Buffalo will be getting him the ball.

1. See my previous post for some relevant discussion.2. MF specifically asked me to state what I disagree with about those numbers, and I responded to his request. So I'm not sure why you see my post as nitpicking or "overzealous". The fact is that my projections are far different from his.

3. Aside from that, you and MF may be right, we'll see. Until then, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

1) I saw your previous post and I see the relevant discussion. I find it interesting that you predict his usage to be lower than Reggie Bush. I'm curious if it's because you don't think he'll be good enough to warrant more touches or because Buffalo simply plans on using him as an 11 carry, 2-3 reception guy even if he does well?2) I know he asked, but the #'s he gave were whole number, per game estimates. You stated that you think he should lower his floor of 48 and you're predicting 40. My point is if he lowered it by even 1 from 3-4 receptions to 2-4 receptions, it would drop the floor all the way to 32 receptions based on how he gave his #'s. It just seems you're trying to get it a bit more exact that he was obviously intending to do. It's one thing if he were saying he had a floor of 60 and you think it should be in the 40 range, but if you think he's off by a handful of receptions just seems like nitpicking. You state your projections are "far different" but in relation to the floor, which is what I spoke about, I don't see 8 receptions as "far different". It's half a catch per game. Maybe you have an even lower floor than 40. If so, I'd love to hear the rationale for thinking he'll be averaging ~2 catches/game. And this is not to mention your error in seeing he didn't predict 80 receptions which you didn't acknowledge. It would seem his projections are more in line with yours if you read it correctly.

3) I think it's pretty obvious that you don't like Spiller as a prospect. However, I think there's a difference between how he actually performs with the touches and what he actually gets. I may like Spiller, but there is no guarantee he's going to perform well at the next level. I understand he's a somewhat "risky" prospect. However, how I think he performs is completely different with how often he should touch the ball. As I stated above, I'm curious to know why you think he's going to touch the ball so infrequently. ~220 combined rushes/receptions is a pretty low number. Last year, 22 RBs alone had 211+ CARRIES (not even looking at receptions). Last year, only 7 teams didn't have their #1 RB surpass 220 touches. Of those 7, Wells and McCoy easily will this year (both were rookies), Slaton was easily on track but got hurt last 5 games (on pace for over 250), NE is a complete RBBC with no clear RB, J. Jones and Seattle is a mess as is Oakland (and McFadden was hurt) and NO had a 3 headed monster with injuries to all 3.

So, is it possible he only gets ~220 touches total in the long-term? I guess, but it's highly unlikely. When you factor in the reasons above for why a lead RB wouldn't hit that # (injuries, poor quality starter, or clear committee with no definitive starter), then I just don't see how a high 1st round pick won't be used more. Maybe you see them bringing someone else in or maybe you see Fred Jackson as a superior talent who will earn more carries or maybe you don't see Spiller staying healthy enough to surpass that number. I don't know. But assuming he's healthy, then regardless of how well he does (at least for the first ~3 years), there's not much reason for Buffalo to limit his touches so much.

 

[Tau837]

1) I saw your previous post and I see the relevant discussion. I find it interesting that you predict his usage to be lower than Reggie Bush. I'm curious if it's because you don't think he'll be good enough to warrant more touches or because Buffalo simply plans on using him as an 11 carry, 2-3 reception guy even if he does well?

I'm projecting him for an average of 260 touches, including returns. That is a bit more than 16 touches per game. So it could be more than 11 carries and 2-3 receptions. Depends on how much they involve him in the return game IMO.

2) I know he asked, but the #'s he gave were whole number, per game estimates. You stated that you think he should lower his floor of 48 and you're predicting 40. My point is if he lowered it by even 1 from 3-4 receptions to 2-4 receptions, it would drop the floor all the way to 32 receptions based on how he gave his #'s. It just seems you're trying to get it a bit more exact that he was obviously intending to do. It's one thing if he were saying he had a floor of 60 and you think it should be in the 40 range, but if you think he's off by a handful of receptions just seems like nitpicking. You state your projections are "far different" but in relation to the floor, which is what I spoke about, I don't see 8 receptions as "far different". It's half a catch per game. Maybe you have an even lower floor than 40. If so, I'd love to hear the rationale for thinking he'll be averaging ~2 catches/game. And this is not to mention your error in seeing he didn't predict 80 receptions which you didn't acknowledge. It would seem his projections are more in line with yours if you read it correctly.

MF projected 304-368 touches per 16 games, including returns. I projected 260 touches per 16 games, including returns. I think that is far different. YMMV.ETA: I never said my floor for his receptions was 40. I said if he got 40 returns I'd probably project him with 180 carries and 40 receptions. I didn't provide a range. If I did, obviously the floor would be below 40 receptions and the ceiling would be above 40 receptions.

3) I think it's pretty obvious that you don't like Spiller as a prospect. However, I think there's a difference between how he actually performs with the touches and what he actually gets. I may like Spiller, but there is no guarantee he's going to perform well at the next level. I understand he's a somewhat "risky" prospect. However, how I think he performs is completely different with how often he should touch the ball. As I stated above, I'm curious to know why you think he's going to touch the ball so infrequently. ~220 combined rushes/receptions is a pretty low number. Last year, 22 RBs alone had 211+ CARRIES (not even looking at receptions). Last year, only 7 teams didn't have their #1 RB surpass 220 touches. Of those 7, Wells and McCoy easily will this year (both were rookies), Slaton was easily on track but got hurt last 5 games (on pace for over 250), NE is a complete RBBC with no clear RB, J. Jones and Seattle is a mess as is Oakland (and McFadden was hurt) and NO had a 3 headed monster with injuries to all 3. So, is it possible he only gets ~220 touches total in the long-term? I guess, but it's highly unlikely. When you factor in the reasons above for why a lead RB wouldn't hit that # (injuries, poor quality starter, or clear committee with no definitive starter), then I just don't see how a high 1st round pick won't be used more. Maybe you see them bringing someone else in or maybe you see Fred Jackson as a superior talent who will earn more carries or maybe you don't see Spiller staying healthy enough to surpass that number. I don't know. But assuming he's healthy, then regardless of how well he does (at least for the first ~3 years), there's not much reason for Buffalo to limit his touches so much.

IMO Spiller's talent is overrated and his situation is absolutely terrible. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a hard time staying fully healthy, given that he will be the focus of the opposing defense from day one and has a lousy OL and passing game to help him. And, yes, I expect the Bills to bring someone else in to replace Jackson as part of the Bills RBBC, whenever the time comes. As I said, we'll see.I didn't really set out to take a strong stand against Spiller. Initially, I thought MF was projecting up to 400 combined carries and receptions, and thus up to 100+ catches, and that's what I responded to. I am certainly no expert at projecting rookies. But when asked I call it as I see it.

 

[Catbird]

My God. I try to read this thread bacause its among the best and most interesting in the Shark Pool. But Gianmarco, Micheal J. Fox and Just Win Baby have each posted at least 8 seperate epistles TODAY on the same topic and mostly just arguing without half a dozen facts presented between them. My problem is having to spend half an hour reading your rehashing - just in case someone comes up with something novel or starts a new discussion that might actually be worth following.

Note to self: If I can't get it said convincingly in 3 posts and have no new facts to offer, just shut up. People probably have better things to do than listen to my interminable petty bickering. I invite everyone to hold me to this (and to consider some similar policy).

 

[SSOG]

- Few RBs are considered the type of multi-purpose threat that Spiller is, so it would be weird to ignore his return "touches"

Most fantasy leagues don't reward return yardage, so most fantasy owners ignore returns when discussing touches. Nothing weird about it at all.

My God. I try to read this thread bacause its among the best and most interesting in the Shark Pool. But Gianmarco, Micheal J. Fox and Just Win Baby have each posted at least 8 seperate epistles TODAY on the same topic and mostly just arguing without half a dozen facts presented between them. My problem is having to spend half an hour reading your rehashing - just in case someone comes up with something novel or starts a new discussion that might actually be worth following. Note to self: If I can't get it said convincingly in 3 posts and have no new facts to offer, just shut up. People probably have better things to do than listen to my interminable petty bickering. I invite everyone to hold me to this (and to consider some similar policy).

It's the offseason. Not a whole lot going on.Personally, I'm glad that people will sometimes ramble on and on about certain players. There's a lot to be gleaned from the process of arriving at a conclusion, and skimming isn't really a big deal. If I am interested in Spiller (and, as the owner of the #4 rookie pick, I am), then I'll follow the whole thing. If not, then I won't. There are definitely posts in this thread that I've never read, and I don't feel any worse off for it.

 

[gianmarco]

My God. I try to read this thread bacause its among the best and most interesting in the Shark Pool. But Gianmarco, Micheal J. Fox and Just Win Baby have each posted at least 8 seperate epistles TODAY on the same topic and mostly just arguing without half a dozen facts presented between them. My problem is having to spend half an hour reading your rehashing - just in case someone comes up with something novel or starts a new discussion that might actually be worth following. Note to self: If I can't get it said convincingly in 3 posts and have no new facts to offer, just shut up. People probably have better things to do than listen to my interminable petty bickering. I invite everyone to hold me to this (and to consider some similar policy).

Catbird, no offense, but this entire thread is FULL of "epistles" that are normally far longer than this discussion on Spiller (see Brandon Marshall of late). I've gotten quite a bit out of most of them. As SSOG pointed out, it's the offseason and these are the kinds of things that are talked about. You don't have to spend a half hour on it. If you didn't like the discussion, try "scrolling" past. As to not having half a dozen facts, that's ridiculous. Aside from breaking down our thoughts on how Spiller would be used and how often he might touch the ball as well as trying to get to why or why not he will be successful, there was a comparison to Reggie Bush and his usage as well as how 1st round RBs have fared over the last decade. We're not talking about some fringe #4 WR here. This is a rookie going at the top of rookie drafts and actually going pretty high in startups. Trying to determine how good or bad of a prospect he is is pretty important to some dynasty folks. Figuring out his usage is a big part of that. It doesn't matter how talented a player someone might be, if they aren't going to touch the ball enough, they are worthless. See Jerious Norwood, Leon Washington, A. Bradshaw, etc. I'm not trying to be "right". But I have a pretty strong viewpoint on both how I view Spiller's talent (which wasn't talked about in this section) as well as how I view Spiller's likely usage. JWB feels differently and I wanted to know why and get to the bottom of it. Getting some insight on that is helpful if it goes against my opinions, both for me and I'm sure others. "Bickering" is part of this forum and in particular this thread. If you don't really like it, feel free to put me, JWB, and Michael Fox on ignore. You should continue to do the same for others that "bicker". Soon, you won't have to waste time wading through endless dribble. You also probably won't have much to wade through at all, but hey, at least you won't have to waste your time.

 

[gianmarco]

1) I saw your previous post and I see the relevant discussion. I find it interesting that you predict his usage to be lower than Reggie Bush. I'm curious if it's because you don't think he'll be good enough to warrant more touches or because Buffalo simply plans on using him as an 11 carry, 2-3 reception guy even if he does well?

I'm projecting him for an average of 260 touches, including returns. That is a bit more than 16 touches per game. So it could be more than 11 carries and 2-3 receptions. Depends on how much they involve him in the return game IMO.

2) I know he asked, but the #'s he gave were whole number, per game estimates. You stated that you think he should lower his floor of 48 and you're predicting 40. My point is if he lowered it by even 1 from 3-4 receptions to 2-4 receptions, it would drop the floor all the way to 32 receptions based on how he gave his #'s. It just seems you're trying to get it a bit more exact that he was obviously intending to do. It's one thing if he were saying he had a floor of 60 and you think it should be in the 40 range, but if you think he's off by a handful of receptions just seems like nitpicking. You state your projections are "far different" but in relation to the floor, which is what I spoke about, I don't see 8 receptions as "far different". It's half a catch per game. Maybe you have an even lower floor than 40. If so, I'd love to hear the rationale for thinking he'll be averaging ~2 catches/game. And this is not to mention your error in seeing he didn't predict 80 receptions which you didn't acknowledge. It would seem his projections are more in line with yours if you read it correctly.

MF projected 304-368 touches per 16 games, including returns. I projected 260 touches per 16 games, including returns. I think that is far different. YMMV.ETA: I never said my floor for his receptions was 40. I said if he got 40 returns I'd probably project him with 180 carries and 40 receptions. I didn't provide a range. If I did, obviously the floor would be below 40 receptions and the ceiling would be above 40 receptions.

3) I think it's pretty obvious that you don't like Spiller as a prospect. However, I think there's a difference between how he actually performs with the touches and what he actually gets. I may like Spiller, but there is no guarantee he's going to perform well at the next level. I understand he's a somewhat "risky" prospect. However, how I think he performs is completely different with how often he should touch the ball. As I stated above, I'm curious to know why you think he's going to touch the ball so infrequently. ~220 combined rushes/receptions is a pretty low number. Last year, 22 RBs alone had 211+ CARRIES (not even looking at receptions). Last year, only 7 teams didn't have their #1 RB surpass 220 touches. Of those 7, Wells and McCoy easily will this year (both were rookies), Slaton was easily on track but got hurt last 5 games (on pace for over 250), NE is a complete RBBC with no clear RB, J. Jones and Seattle is a mess as is Oakland (and McFadden was hurt) and NO had a 3 headed monster with injuries to all 3.

So, is it possible he only gets ~220 touches total in the long-term? I guess, but it's highly unlikely. When you factor in the reasons above for why a lead RB wouldn't hit that # (injuries, poor quality starter, or clear committee with no definitive starter), then I just don't see how a high 1st round pick won't be used more. Maybe you see them bringing someone else in or maybe you see Fred Jackson as a superior talent who will earn more carries or maybe you don't see Spiller staying healthy enough to surpass that number. I don't know. But assuming he's healthy, then regardless of how well he does (at least for the first ~3 years), there's not much reason for Buffalo to limit his touches so much.

IMO Spiller's talent is overrated and his situation is absolutely terrible. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a hard time staying fully healthy, given that he will be the focus of the opposing defense from day one and has a lousy OL and passing game to help him. And, yes, I expect the Bills to bring someone else in to replace Jackson as part of the Bills RBBC, whenever the time comes. As I said, we'll see.I didn't really set out to take a strong stand against Spiller. Initially, I thought MF was projecting up to 400 combined carries and receptions, and thus up to 100+ catches, and that's what I responded to. I am certainly no expert at projecting rookies. But when asked I call it as I see it.

That's interesting that you factor in returns into how often he'll rush and catch the ball. I honestly can't imagine a team doing that--setting a number for him to touch the ball in all aspects and then going by that. Who knows, maybe they do

In terms of total touches (including returns), yes, your projections are different. I was referring to your projections for receptions that I think are pretty close and thought I had made that clear. Since you spent a long time discussing his receptions, that's all I was referring to.

While I won't get into how we view Spiller's talent because there's not much else to discuss there that we haven't already, I just don't agree that their OL is "lousy". Recent #'s just don't bear that out. Football Outsiders attempts to give a numerical ranking on a variety of factors and Buffalo was 12th last year and 13th the year before here. Even if it's not perfect, I have a hard time believing they are so off that it ranks a "lousy" O-line so high. By that ranking, they are most definitely lousy at pass protection, but definitely not for run blocking. Factor in what Fred Jackson was able to do behind that same line last year and we just view his situation differently. I also didn't realize that being the focus of the offense makes you more injury prone.

I do agree that they will bring in someone else once F. Jackson moves on. I just don't think they'll bring in that person to be the main part of that RBBC unless Spiller fails miserably. I guess that's where we disagree.

Either way, I'm also not great in doing projections, especially for rookies, and often don't do them myself. But, like you, I speak up if something seems terribly off (i.e. projecting Mathews to have a 4.5 ypc in his spotlight thread by multiple people). It seems that you aren't the only one seeing Spiller getting so few touches and I just find it odd. I honestly think it's mistakenly being done because you and others doubt his ability. It will be interesting to see and thanks for clarifying your position on him

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

In your edit, it's hard to quantify what you means as "a bunch" of returns. I think he is probably going to average about 260 total touches (including returns) per season (16 games) for his career. And that includes his rookie season, which will probably be lower, so long term that means he'll average a bit more than that IMO.So if he gets 40 returns, that means I'd estimate 220 combined carries and receptions, which I'd probably break down as 180 carries and 40 receptions. If he gets 20 returns, then obviously his carries and receptions go up accordingly... maybe 195 carries and 45 catches. You get the picture.So, yes, I think my projections are considerably lower than yours. Your 19-23 touches per game means 304-368 touches per 16 games, which is a lot more than I expect.

Fair enough. I appreciate the discussion, it's helpful to see how others gauge Spiller's likely production.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

My God. I try to read this thread bacause its among the best and most interesting in the Shark Pool. But Gianmarco, Micheal J. Fox and Just Win Baby have each posted at least 8 seperate epistles TODAY on the same topic and mostly just arguing without half a dozen facts presented between them. My problem is having to spend half an hour reading your rehashing - just in case someone comes up with something novel or starts a new discussion that might actually be worth following. Note to self: If I can't get it said convincingly in 3 posts and have no new facts to offer, just shut up. People probably have better things to do than listen to my interminable petty bickering. I invite everyone to hold me to this (and to consider some similar policy).

Catbird -I *usually* try to have much more concise posts initially, but stuff happens. Limited time = less opportunity to put together a perfect treatise on a given topic. As gianmarco mentioned, this thread is full of a combo of random tangents, personal 1-on-1 debates, and meandering topics. For some of us, that makes this thread fun. Thanks for the feedback though, I wasn't aware of how lengthy the back and forth was until re-reading the thread last night. Again, sometimes that happens.

 

[Catbird]

And I will admit, reading back, that I probably over-stated the problem, maybe because I had a lot to do and felt I was spending a LOT of time reading the same arguments over and over again. I see the recent Marshall discussion somewhat differently - a guy with among the best established skills in the game, with probably the worst off-field mental/emotional track record now in the game, taking that package under the cloud of looming suspension to a new team and offense. Lots of facts, history and unusual issues to work with. I see guessing at how a rookie RB will produce when we have little idea yet how he will be used or how successful he will be other than opinion ... just seems worth less repititom of the same general assertions.

But the responces to my comment are valid too - lots of people may like that length of discussion, particularly since there is not that much else going on, and I agree there isn't any better way to get thoughts straight about a new player than to consider several other people's views on what we might expect. I'll still try not to post repititions, but won't be so quick to judge others on what to post. I do have the option of reading what I want to - its just that enough good things slip in on this thread that I don't want to miss anything, so I read them all. I'll take responsibility for that choice and temper my impatience with what others feel is worth debating.

 

[gianmarco]

And I will admit, reading back, that I probably over-stated the problem, maybe because I had a lot to do and felt I was spending a LOT of time reading the same arguments over and over again. I see the recent Marshall discussion somewhat differently - a guy with among the best established skills in the game, with probably the worst off-field mental/emotional track record now in the game, taking that package under the cloud of looming suspension to a new team and offense. Lots of facts, history and unusual issues to work with. I see guessing at how a rookie RB will produce when we have little idea yet how he will be used or how successful he will be other than opinion ... just seems worth less repititom of the same general assertions. But the responces to my comment are valid too - lots of people may like that length of discussion, particularly since there is not that much else going on, and I agree there isn't any better way to get thoughts straight about a new player than to consider several other people's views on what we might expect. I'll still try not to post repititions, but won't be so quick to judge others on what to post. I do have the option of reading what I want to - its just that enough good things slip in on this thread that I don't want to miss anything, so I read them all. I'll take responsibility for that choice and temper my impatience with what others feel is worth debating.

I've felt that way at times, particularly for debates on players I just don't care about or don't think are worthwhile but it's clear that others do and may take value in it. Either way, this thread is still one of the best around and a goldmine for some great viewpoints. I know I can be long-winded and stubborn at times and I'll try to keep that in mind as well. I don't argue for many players, but the ones I do I do so pretty vehemently. Some of these responses make me go back and rethink how I feel and that's a good thing. I've already heard from some that it's caused them to rethink who they might take in a rookie draft as well. Spiller (and Best, for that matter) present an interesting situation. As FFers, we all have short memories. It influences what we do and often too much so. We've seen it mentioned recently in topics like overzealous WR love, selling players off in their primes by overdoing the youth movement due to the recent dropoffs by guys like LT and Westbrook. I think both the recent success of the rookie class last year as well as the success of a "small" Chris Johnson may be causing some of us (myself included) to overvalue a guy like Spiller or Best. I think it's very likely that if Chris Johnson didn't have the success he did that many would be looking at both of those guys as too slight and not capable of a full load. I'm trying to be careful in my enthusiasm and make sure it's not due to seeing visions of the next Chris Johnson. Maybe I'm truly overestimating his potential role and workload.

 

[ookook]

I think teams do not draft a player that high without the intention of giving him more than 10 carries a game.

But if by year 3 they cannot get yardage on 1st down or move the chains on 3rd, they look for someone else to complement.

I think some of us (myself included) were higher on Fred Jackson than the Bills are.