You may be right, but I'm not convinced. I think he will be in the second round (mid to late) in most drafts.
It is hard to argue with that production though.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
[Dynasty] 2014 Draft Prospects (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Xue
- Start date
It is hard to argue with that production though.
EBF
Footballguy
Totally unscientific take here, but I just think he looks like a #2 receiver and not a potential #1.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Except that Adams is far more explosive, thicker and was far more productive in college. Abbrederis needed to play 4 seasons to accumulate 23 TDs. Adams had 24 TDs in one season (2013).
Milkman
Footballguy
Which of these numbers make you think that?
6'3 212 pounds
4.4 speed
great hands (I believe they were the biggest hands out of all the WR)
great route runner
21 bench reps
He also averaged nearly 10 receptions and 120 yards a game in the SEC with a dog at QB.
Those numbers I listed scream #1 WR in the NFL.
EBF
Footballguy
Good place to put this:
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-combine/0ap2000000328360/Lee-makes-dazzling-catches
To be fair, he also had a bad drop or two. He's always going to put the ball on the ground more than average. He can catch though. He did it 118 times in 2012.
werdnoynek
Footballguy
Lets not forget Wisconsin rarely passed the ball during Abbrederis' career... they're just not a passing team. You can't conveniently pick stats like that to compare players my friend.
Thankfully the good people at Draft Breakdown have one of Abbrederis' better performances as a Badger against Ohio State where he went toe to toe with the All American (and potential first rounder) Bradley Roby for 10 catches 207 yards and a TD. He should have had 3.
Joel Stave isn't an NFL QB and didn't do Abbrederis any favors this past season. I like the Jordy comparison MAC... Abbrederis is an excellent route runner and while he's not going to run past many NFL corners, he can set them up enough to create space and occasionally burn them.
Sign me up.
ETA: Link to Ohio State Game - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Szwx3JoMQik
Last edited by a moderator:
Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah both those grabs were great. I think you mentioned it to but his height/weight and 40 time were a little disappointing. Still when I put in the tape he jumps off the screen for me. So I guess I'm trying not to downgrade him to much. He reminds me of Reggie Wayne. He probably will not be as lucky as Wayne (few are) and get to play with elite QB's his entire career so I would say his ceiling is Wayne with less TD's.
EBF
Footballguy
Just my impression from watching his college clips and his combine workout. 212 is not a huge weight for a 6'2"+ WR. He doesn't play big or physical. He looked solid in the drills and his testing was pretty good. 4.46 40, 35.5" vert, 10' broad jump, and 6.95 three cone. There's not a single bad mark there, but there's nothing especially great either. His vert and broad are right on the low end of what I consider "solid" for a WR (especially the broad considering he's so tall). His height/weight is more in line with guys like Wayne/Green than the big dominators like Dez/VJax/Fitz.
Is he a bad prospect? No. Do I hate him? No. Will he be a top 100 pick? Probably. I think he's going to be a decent pro actually.
I don't see the special something of a frontline #1 receiver. He doesn't have any one single tool that's going to have people playing on their heels. Maybe the speed a little bit, but he's not Mike Wallace. If you want to be really optimistic, there are some shades of guys like Torry Holt and Reggie Wayne. I just don't see him as a game-controlling 80+ reception guy in the NFL though. More of a #2 finesse WR in a downfield passing offense. This might be kind of a harsh comparison, but maybe a little like a Brian Hartline or what Houston probably hoped they were getting with DeVier Posey.
Last edited by a moderator:
I think that there is something to be said about a solid overall athlete that maybe does not do one thing super great/freaky, but that does everything very well. Sometimes the sum of all of the attributes/parts can equal a great player. That might be the case with Matthews.
SECs all-time leading WR with a grab bag of QBs.... His combine really bumped him up my WR rankings.
Milkman
Footballguy
He can easily add 5-6 pounds and be 6'3 220ish. Plus all those numbers are above average. Then you add great hands+ route running. I think AJ Green is a great comparison. I agree he is a little more finesse then you would think given his strength.
Remember Matthews was Vandy's offense. He still dominated. He caught close to 50% of his teams passing TD's. His QB...............Austyn Carta-Samuels.
The more I look at highlights of McKinnon the more I like what I see. He looks so explosive! How can you not be excited about his prospects. Maybe he has been a hidden gem hiding in that triple option offense? I'm sure that NFL GMs are even more interested after that jaw-dropping combine. Maybe he'll do QB drills at his pro-day - if Georgia Southern even has a pro day....
Milkman
Footballguy
http://draftbreakdown.com/video/jordan-matthews-vs-ole-miss-2013/
1:44 - shows his home run speed. Wow.
4:59 - takes a big shot and holds on to the football.
5:34 - that's 4th and 18 or something crazy like that and everybody knows they are throwing it to him. Great hands. Tracks the ball beautifully over his shoulder.
On top of all this he's got great football IQ and I haven't heard of any trouble with the law.
He's AJ Green but 10 times smarter. I mean it's insane that nobody is talking about him really. It's like a few people stated (probably correctly) that he is not the most physically WR and he's slow (not true) so nobody is paying him any attention. Then he runs a blistering 40, above average in all the drills, and benches 225 21 times and everybody is like "meh".
1:44 - shows his home run speed. Wow.
4:59 - takes a big shot and holds on to the football.
5:34 - that's 4th and 18 or something crazy like that and everybody knows they are throwing it to him. Great hands. Tracks the ball beautifully over his shoulder.
On top of all this he's got great football IQ and I haven't heard of any trouble with the law.
He's AJ Green but 10 times smarter. I mean it's insane that nobody is talking about him really. It's like a few people stated (probably correctly) that he is not the most physically WR and he's slow (not true) so nobody is paying him any attention. Then he runs a blistering 40, above average in all the drills, and benches 225 21 times and everybody is like "meh".
Last edited by a moderator:
EBF
Footballguy
People often say this about prospects they like, but if you're going to assume that one guy is going to gain weight then shouldn't you also assume that lots of other people will gain weight? Relative to what NFL WRs were at the same stage of their development, he is on the thin/finesse side of the scale. I don't know how much development Mathews has left in the tank relative to the average NFL prospect, but I don't see any reason to assume that he's any more likely to suddenly bulk up than anyone else. He might be a little less likely to gain weight since he played four years of college and will be a 22 year old rookie compared to 21 year olds like Watkins and Robinson. The fact that he already benches the world tells me probably hasn't been missing a lot of workouts.
The reason most of these guys are on the draft radar is because they were standouts in college. Lee, Cooks, Evans, Watkins, and Robinson all put up some eye-popping numbers. Good production doesn't somehow distinguish Matthews from that group of players. Most college defenders (even in the SEC) are way off the standard of your average NFL starter. Thriving against them is a good sign, but not any kind of proof of NFL viability.
AJ Green isn't that great of a combine numbers athlete, but there was something there that caused a lot of scouts to rate him as an elite talent. Same with Torry Holt. Not a freaky height/weight/speed guy (though I don't remember his 40 -- maybe it was great), yet the scouts saw something special there to make him a top 10 overall pick. If Matthews goes in the top 10 of the draft then of course I'll look at him in a different light, but my hunch is that he's a 2nd round pick.
Again, I don't hate him as a prospect. He looked solid at the combine. When you add up the production, the measurables, the character, and the likely top 75 draft slot, I think he has the makings of a guy who can carve out a solid career as a complementary outside WR. I don't know that I see a huge ceiling though. My hunch is that he'll be a system-dependent #2 WR rather than a perennial standalone 1000+ yard NFL WR1.
Last edited by a moderator:
That speed on that screen was sick. He looks like a #1 WR and has the physical attributes that prove that.
I have Matthews as my 5th WR and Allen Robinson as my 9th.
Milkman
Footballguy
werdnoynek
Footballguy
Your forgetting the key to what makes Green so great. He isn't big or all that fast... He's got natural elite talent for the position. I can't take you seriously if you're comparing Green and Matthews while only looking at numbers (it seems). Green's talent transcends numbers. Matthews doesn't have that. He never will IMO. There's a lot more to being an elite NFL WR than a great combine and production in college.ETA: I realized just now I quoted the wrong post. But I can answer the question... That talent that makes Green so special is his body control and his tracking ability. He's explosive off the line and has a sneaky quickness or smooth twitchiness (if that makes any sense at all). Matthews seems too straight line IMO and lacks that explosion off the line. I'm not sold on his hands and concentration. He has no where near the body control Green has either. Combine was impressive but he's got a lot of work to do to be compared to Green.
Last edited by a moderator:
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
EBF - I'm curious about your thoughts on Davante Adams.
EBF
Footballguy
Size/speed aren't what make Green. He really isn't that great of an athlete. One of the worst of the "elite" in terms of his numbers on paper. Having the same height/weight/speed doesn't make you the same guy. Otherwise Da'Rick Rogers would be Dez Bryant. There are intangibles like hands, body control, quickness, and economy of movement that play a big role. I know Matthews isn't known for making the acrobatic catches of Green, for one thing.
Last edited by a moderator:
EBF
Footballguy
Good prospect. Very few significant warts. Good weight for his height, good quickness/RAC, and explosive enough. With more outright speed he might have been a 1st round prospect. I think he'll go 2nd-3rd round of the NFL draft and be a solid starter. Quality 2nd round rookie pick IMO. I've likened him to a slightly lesser Hakeem Nicks. I've seen him called a poor-man's Crabtree as well. He's got a similar big body/YAC game with just enough speed to go vertical. Pretty good in jump ball situations too. Again, I don't know if see the special something of a #1 NFL target. Should be a useful NFL starter though.
Milkman
Footballguy
Look I'm not trolling. I agree with you to some extent but I do think AJ green is the best comp for Jordan Matthews.
Physically they are almost identical.
Green is thought of as one of the best WR prospects ever.
There is no debating those two statements.
Matthews looks like a WR1 to me. He has no red flags. Good kid. Good upbringing. Good football IQ. Great hands. Great route running. Strong. Fast. The "only" issue people have with him (after the combine that he just blew up) is he doesn't play physical enough. I agree but AJ Green isn't exactly a beast either. It would be nice if he was 8 pounds heavier but that's nitpicking a little.
http://draftbreakdown.com/video/jordan-matthews-vs-houston-2013/
Check out the catch at the 2:50 mark. He fought for that ball. Caught it with one hand and a guy hanging all over him.
werdnoynek
Footballguy
Xue
Footballguy
Abbrederis is not on the same level as the other two. Adams is the best redzone/endzone weapon outside of Mike Evans.
Xue
Footballguy
McKinnon basically put up numbers close to Seastrunk at near the same size and is 1 year younger.
Milkman
Footballguy
That's a good way of putting it. I understand what you're saying about Green's twitchiness/suddenness. Matthews does not have that. He does however have Greens speed/size and route running ability. Plus he's stronger and he has better hands. That's a rare/elite combination.
The kids totally being overlooked right now because it seems like we already decided he wasn't WR1 material and kind of moved on. Me included. Why though? We thought he was slow. Well he's not. We thought he was weak. Nope. He benched 225 as much as Clowney.
Last edited by a moderator:
coolnerd
Footballguy
McKinnon seems like he will be very much like (better pure athletic numbers) Dennard robinson last year where dude is drafted because he is an athlete (or OW if you are Jacksonville). Seems like a player that the teams need a plan of development for. Also, mayock claimed that he has done work at corner during the off-season and had some natural hip movement coverage skills. Honestly, he would have more value for NFL teams and his wallet if he can actually play corner. Very much worth a watch to see who drafts him.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Jordan Matthews best comparison is AJ Green? Come on. AJ Green has arguably the best WR skills in the league, Matthews on the other hand is nowhere close to that. I'd say he has average WR skills for an NFL WR; he certainly doesn't have near as good of hands as people are talking about in here. Hell, he dropped 7.7% of balls thrown to him this season, whereas guys like Watkins, Evans, and Cooks dropped under 5%. That's especially bad considering 65% of the passes thrown to Matthews came within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage (stats found here). He also body catches quite a bit more than he should, probably a source for the drops. He's got good size, good speed, and he seems to be a hard worker, so chances are he'll be a productive NFL WR, but I really don't see stardom in his cards at all; he's a WR2 at best imo.
EBF
Footballguy
strong ≠ bulky
weight room strength ≠ football strength
For most positions on the field, the legs are more important than the upper body. Reggie Bush benched 225 24 times at his pro day. He doesn't run with any power because he has no bulk in his lower body. Same with Robert Turbin. 28 reps of 225 on the bench. Stick legs on the football field. No power.
Whether you like Matthews or not, I don't think it's accurate to characterize him as some sort of dominant physical specimen. From everything I've seen he's more of a speed WR in build and playing style than a Boldin/Marshall/Crabtree/Fitzgerald type who is going to win with strength.
Last edited by a moderator:
Milkman
Footballguy
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
They wish. Adams has the WR skills both those guys lack, he hand catches the ball every time and he dominates in jump ball situations. Matthews and Abbrederis are both faster (and in Matthews case taller) so they definitely have their share of advantages over Adams, but I think Adams' excellent WR skills more than make up for it. I'd be targetting Adams before either of those 2 myself.
Whitney26
Footballguy
Finished cutting up another game (vs North Dakota State) of Jerick McKinnon for anyone interested. I should have the Central Arkansas game up in a day or so......rushed for 300+ that game.
http://youtu.be/h0PFhvTT2_w
http://youtu.be/h0PFhvTT2_w
Milkman
Footballguy
Yeah he's def not a physical WR even though he's pretty strong in his upper body. His weight might hold him back from being an elite Red Zone target but he has the hands and height to be an above average RZ target. He has been characterized as a hard worker who loves to be coached. His legs look skinny to me. Time for him to get in the gym and do some squats. He reminds me of RG3 when he gets hit. He seems to get thrown around a bit almost like a rag doll. If that makes sense. It's his biggest flaw but again AJ Green isn't super physical and he seems to be doing fine.
Last edited by a moderator:
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Having a bad QB doesn't pardon Matthews for body catching when he should be catching the ball with his hands. And that Vanderbilt QB completed nearly 70% of his passes and averaged over 8 yards per attempt, those numbers are hardly terrible.
Milkman
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
He completed 193 passes this year. I bet over half of them went to Matthews. Matthews also caught half the teams TD's. Matthews had 112 catches this year. He can catch the football. We'll see how Austyn Carta-Samuels does next year without an elite WR.
Will Samuels even be drafted? Serious question.
Xue
Footballguy
AJ Green plays taller than Matthews. Matthews likes to line up very low at the LOS. I think that hurts him on short routes when the ball is above his head. I see him more as a better version of Eric Decker and he might have a ceiling of a Keenan Allen.
I don't get why people are high on Lee and low on Matthews. Matthews is basically a bigger version: great after the catch, body catches, suspect hands. Matthews with better routes, though.
L'Damian Washington reminds me of AJ Green in his movements, size, and body structure. But of course he plays nothing like Green.
I don't get why people are high on Lee and low on Matthews. Matthews is basically a bigger version: great after the catch, body catches, suspect hands. Matthews with better routes, though.
L'Damian Washington reminds me of AJ Green in his movements, size, and body structure. But of course he plays nothing like Green.
Last edited by a moderator:
ZWK
Footballguy
Here's my first stab at post-combine rankings (these are pretty rushed, since I've been busy with work). (My last pre-combine RB rankings were here)
Top WRs, strictly by the numbers (the rest are here):
Sammy Watkins
Mike Evans
Brandin Cooks
Jordan Matthews
Donte Moncrief
Allen Robinson
Marqise Lee
Davante Adams
Odell Beckham Jr.
RBs (* means that I don't have as much info on that player as I'd like to, either tape-watching or stats or both):
Lache Seastrunk
Carlos Hyde
Tre Mason
Charles Sims
Jeremy Hill
Henry Josey *
Devonta Freeman *
Bishop Sankey
Isaiah Crowell *
Andre Williams
Tim Flanders *
David Fluellen
Stephen Houston *
George Atkinson III *
James White
Tim Cornett *
Terrance West *
Ka'Deem Carey
Antonio Andrews
Marion Grice
Tyler Gaffney *
James Wilder, Jr.
Storm Johnson *
Rajion Neal *
Kapri Bibbs *
Silas Redd *
Maybe in a Sproles or Harvin type role, if they're good enough receivers:
Dri Archer
Robert Godhigh
De'Anthony Thomas
Not enough info / want to see more of:
LaDarius Perkins
Damien WIlliams
Jerick McKinnon
Seastrunk & Hyde did well enough in the jumps to balance out their poor 40 times (plus Hyde pulled a hamstring). Hill did not. Carey, Andrews, and Wilder plummet down the rankings after awful workouts. There is a huge penalty in my numerical rankings for guys who weigh less than 190, but if you just go by the numbers Dri Archer still somehow manages to fit into the top tier with Seastrunk & Hyde.
Top WRs, strictly by the numbers (the rest are here):
Sammy Watkins
Mike Evans
Brandin Cooks
Jordan Matthews
Donte Moncrief
Allen Robinson
Marqise Lee
Davante Adams
Odell Beckham Jr.
RBs (* means that I don't have as much info on that player as I'd like to, either tape-watching or stats or both):
Lache Seastrunk
Carlos Hyde
Tre Mason
Charles Sims
Jeremy Hill
Henry Josey *
Devonta Freeman *
Bishop Sankey
Isaiah Crowell *
Andre Williams
Tim Flanders *
David Fluellen
Stephen Houston *
George Atkinson III *
James White
Tim Cornett *
Terrance West *
Ka'Deem Carey
Antonio Andrews
Marion Grice
Tyler Gaffney *
James Wilder, Jr.
Storm Johnson *
Rajion Neal *
Kapri Bibbs *
Silas Redd *
Maybe in a Sproles or Harvin type role, if they're good enough receivers:
Dri Archer
Robert Godhigh
De'Anthony Thomas
Not enough info / want to see more of:
LaDarius Perkins
Damien WIlliams
Jerick McKinnon
Seastrunk & Hyde did well enough in the jumps to balance out their poor 40 times (plus Hyde pulled a hamstring). Hill did not. Carey, Andrews, and Wilder plummet down the rankings after awful workouts. There is a huge penalty in my numerical rankings for guys who weigh less than 190, but if you just go by the numbers Dri Archer still somehow manages to fit into the top tier with Seastrunk & Hyde.
Andrew74
Footballguy
Are you too hung up on numbers? Just wondering as you are "meh" on Watkins when the NFL sees a 6', 4.4 40 as a top 10 pick, yet you are the opposite on Matthews vs NFL.
Last edited by a moderator:
The above comparison shows a breakdown of the combine results for some of the top 2013/2014 RB prospects.While looking at one metric on its own may not be very useful. It is interesting when you look back at historical combine results to see how many of the successful NFL RBs that performed well in the 3-cone drill. There seems to be a decent correlation in performing well in that drill and having future NFL success. I did use the word decent as no comparison/correlation is perfect.
I'm a big believer in using data/analytics when you have access to meaningful data. The combine is probably the most meaningful data that football people (GMs/scouts/folks that like to pretend GM as a hobby-like many here) can get their hands on. NFL teams will use this data when making their decisions. I think it is a mistake to discount combine results, but I also think it is a mistake to ONLY rely on them to make decisions.
Last edited by a moderator:
werdnoynek
Footballguy
As many have said, Green has other elite attributes to help him out. Such as great hands, body control, and smooth quicks, and while Matthews has straight line speed - hes slow off the line and lacks explosion. I'd hazard to guess that Green could burn him off the line. I think it's time to move on from this comparison. So what they have similar body types. They're not similar players, at all.
ETA: I'm shocked you keep bringing up his hands - he seems to have a few body catches and drops a game from what I saw.
ETA2: A better comparison - Marvin Jones.
Last edited by a moderator:
How do you know that Matthews does not have great hands, body control, and smooth quicks?He has a nice resume and I think that he has very good, hands, body control, and quicks. While he has a long way to go before he can even be mentioned I the same paragraph/chapter as Green in terms of NFL success. He has put together a great college resume and combine.
I think his tape looks legit. I think he has a good chance to be a WR1 with his size/speed/resume.
But what do I know? I'm just a troll...
Last edited by a moderator:
werdnoynek
Footballguy
You know if someone watched Jim Furyk play golf coming up no one would probably have ever said that he would become:A major champion
Fed Ex Cup Champion
PGA Tour player of the year
His swing is not like anyone else's and any golf instructor would probably try and change his swing.
But he has great swing/ball speed, great touch, putts well, good drive accuracy, and he gets results.
Labeling a guy as a body catcher is kind of a tough thing to do... Every WR at some point may use his body to catch a ball.
Even the great AJ Green.
Last edited by a moderator:
werdnoynek
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
I don't see the explosive part of Adams' game. In fact, I think that is his greatest weakness.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I think those are two things Abbrederis and Matthews do well too.
