BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
lol I know but he’s better than you’re giving him credit for. His other stats that IMHO are equally if not more important and he performed well at them. I believe you got a good back.
Tex
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Early 2024 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings (Single QB) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter socrates
- Start date
Tex
socrates
Footballguy
Added Rounds 4-5 (and a few minor updates to rounds 1-3)
TIER ONE
1.01 WR1 | Tier 1 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | Ohio State | 6-4 | 205 | — | Round 1
1.02 WR2 | Tier 1 | Malik Nabers | LSU | 6-0 | 200 | — | Round 1
1.03 WR3 | Tier 1 | Rome Odunze | Washington | 6-3 | 212 | 4.45/40 | Round 1
TIER TWO
1.04 TE1 | Tier 1 | Brock Bowers | Georgia | 6-3 | 243 | — | Round 1
1.05 WR4 | Tier 2 | Brian Thomas Jr. | LSU | 6-4 | 205 | 4.33/40 | Round 1
TIER THREE
1.06 WR5 | Tier 3 | Ladd McConkey | Georgia | 6-0 | 186 | 4.39/40 | Round 1-2
1.07 QB1 | Tier 1 | Caleb Williams | USC | 6-1 | 214 | — | Round 1
1.08 RB1 | Tier 1 | Trey Benson | Florida State | 6-0 | 216 | Round 2
1.09 WR6 | Tier 3 | Troy Franklin | Oregon | 6-2 | 176 | 4.41/40 | Round 1-2
1.10 WR7 | Tier 3 |Xavier Worthy | Texas | 5-11 | 165 | 4.21/40 | Round 1-2
1.11 WR8 | Tier 3 | Adonai Mitchell | Texas | 6-4 | 196 | 4.34/40 | Round 1-2
1.12 RB2 | Tier 1 | Jonathon Brooks | Texas | 6-0 | 216 | (injury) | Round 2-3
TIER FOUR
2.01 RB3 | Tier 2 | Blake Corum | Michigan | 5-8 | 205 | 4.53/40 | Round 2-3
2.02 WR9 | Tier 4 | Roman Wilson | Michigan | 5-11 | 185 | 4.39/40 | Round 2
2.03 WR10 | Tier 4 | Ricky Pearsall | Florida | 6-1 | 189 | 4.41/40 | Round 2
2.04 RB4 | Tier 2 | Jaylen Wright | Tennessee | 5-10 | 210 | 4.38/40 | Round 2-3
2.05 RB5 | Tier 2 | Marshawn Lloyd | USC | 5-9 | 220 | 4.46/40 | Round 3-4
2.06 QB2 | Tier 2 | Drake Maye | North Carolina | 6-4 | 230 | — | Round 1
2.07 QB3 | Tier 2 | Jayden Daniels | LSU | 6-4 | 210? | – | Round 1
2.08 WR11 | Tier 4 | Keon Coleman | Florida State | 6-4 | 215 | 4.64/40 | Round 1-2
2.09 WR12 | Tier 4 | Malachi Corley | Western Kentucky | 5-11 | 215 | Round 2
2.10 WR13 | Tier 4 | Xavier Legette | South Carolina | 6-1 | 221 | 4.39/40 | Round 2
TIER FIVE
2.11 QB4 | Tier 3 | J.J. McCarthy | Michigan | 6-3 | 202 | – | Round 1
2.12 WR14 | Tier 5 | Brenden Rice | USC | 6-2 | 208 | 4.50/40 | Round 3
3.01 WR15 | Tier 5 | Luke McCaffrey | Rice | 6-2 | 198 | 4.46/40 | Round 4
3.02 WR16 | Tier 5 | Javon Baker | Central Florida | 6-1 | 202 | 4.54/40 | Round 3-4
3.03 RB6 | Tier 3 | Braelon Allen | Wisconsin | 6-1 | 235 | – | Round 3
3.04 RB7 | Tier 3 | Bucky Irving | Oregon | 5-10 | 195 | 4.55/40 | Round 4
3.05 WR17 | Tier 5 | Ja’Lynn Polk | Washington | 6-1 | 203 | 4.52/40 | Round 2-3
TIER SIX
3.06 WR18 | Tier 6 | Jermaine Burton | Alabama | 6-0 | 196 | 4.45/40 | Round 3
3.07 RB8 | Tier 4 | Will Shipley | Clemson | 5-11 | 206 | – | Round 3
3.08 RB9 | Tier 4 | Ray Davis | Kentucky | 5-8 | 211 | 4.52/40 | Round 4
3.09 WR19 | Tier 6 | Devontez Walker | North Carolina | 6-3 | 200 | 4.36/40 | Round 2
3.10 WR20 | Tier 6 | Malik Washington | Virginia | 5-8.5 | 191 | 4.47/40 | Round 4
3.11 QB5 | Tier 4 | Bo Nix | Oregon | 6-2 | 214 | – | Round 2
3.12 QB6 | Tier 4 | Michael Penix Jr. | Washington | 6-2 | 216 | – | Round 2
TIER SEVEN
4.01 WR21 | Tier 7 | Jalen McMillan | Washington | 6-1 | 197 | 4.47/40 | Round 3
4.02 WR22 | Tier 7 | Johnny Wilson | Florida State | 6-6 | 231 | 4.52/40 | Round 3
4.03 WR23 | Tier 7 | Jacob Cowing | Arizona | 5-8 | 168 | 4.38/40 | Round 5
4.04 WR24 | Tier 7 | Jamari Thrash | Louisville | 6-0 | 188 | 4.46/40 | Round 4
4.05 RB10 | Tier 5 | Isaac Guerendo | Louisville | 6-0 | 221 | 4.33/40 | Round 5
4.06 TE2 | Tier 2 | Ja’Tavion Sanders | Texas | 6-4 | 245 | 4.69/40 | Round 2
4.07 WR25 | Tier 7 | Tahj Washington | USC | 5-10 | 174 | – | Round 6
4.08 RB11 | Tier 5 | Tyrone Tracy, Jr. | Purdue | 5-11 | 209 | 4.48/40 | Round 7
TIER EIGHT
4.09 TE3 | Tier 3 | Theo Johnson | Penn State | 6-6 | 259 | 4.57/40 | Round 4
4.10 WR25 | Tier 8 | Jerrod “Bub” Means | Pittsburgh | 6-1 | 212 | 4.43/40 | Round 7
4.11 WR26 | Tier 8 | Ryan Flournoy | Southeast Missouri State | 6-1 | 202 | 4.44/40 | Round 5
4.12 RB12 | Tier 6 | Audric Estimé | Notre Dame | 5-11 | 221 | 4.71/40 | Round 4
5.01 RB13 | Tier 6 | Dillon Johnson | Washington | 6-0 | 217 | 4.68/40 | Round 5
5.02 RB14 | Tier 6 | Frank Gore Jr. | Southern Miss | 5-8 | 201 | – | Round 6
5.03 RB15 | Tier 6 | Dylan Laube | Delaware | 5-9 | 210 | 4.54/40 | Round 5
5.04 QB7 | Tier 5 | Spencer Rattler | South Carolina | 6-0 | 211 | 4.95/40 | Round 3
5.05 WR27 | Tier 8 | Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint | Georgia | 6-1 | 195 | – | Round 6
5.06 WR28 | Tier 8 | Ainias Smith | Texas A&M | 5-9 | 190 | – | Round 5
5.07 RB16 | Tier 6 | Blake Watson | Memphis | 5-9 | 195 | – | Round 7
5.08 WR29 | Tier 8 | Jha’Quan Jackson | Tulane | 5-9 | 188 | 4.42/40 | Round 6
5.09 RB17 | Tier 6 | Kendall Milton | Georgia | 6-2 | 225 | 4.62/40 | Round 6
5.10 WR30 | Tier 8 | Jalen Coker | Holy Cross | 6-1 | 208 | 4.57/40 | Round 7
5.11 RB18 | Tier 6 | Isaiah Davis | South Dakota State | 6-0 | 218 | 4.57/40 | Round 6
5.12 RB19 | Tier 6 | Rasheen Ali | Marshall | 5-11 | 206 | – | Round 7
TIER ONE
1.01 WR1 | Tier 1 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | Ohio State | 6-4 | 205 | — | Round 1
1.02 WR2 | Tier 1 | Malik Nabers | LSU | 6-0 | 200 | — | Round 1
1.03 WR3 | Tier 1 | Rome Odunze | Washington | 6-3 | 212 | 4.45/40 | Round 1
TIER TWO
1.04 TE1 | Tier 1 | Brock Bowers | Georgia | 6-3 | 243 | — | Round 1
1.05 WR4 | Tier 2 | Brian Thomas Jr. | LSU | 6-4 | 205 | 4.33/40 | Round 1
TIER THREE
1.06 WR5 | Tier 3 | Ladd McConkey | Georgia | 6-0 | 186 | 4.39/40 | Round 1-2
1.07 QB1 | Tier 1 | Caleb Williams | USC | 6-1 | 214 | — | Round 1
1.08 RB1 | Tier 1 | Trey Benson | Florida State | 6-0 | 216 | Round 2
1.09 WR6 | Tier 3 | Troy Franklin | Oregon | 6-2 | 176 | 4.41/40 | Round 1-2
1.10 WR7 | Tier 3 |Xavier Worthy | Texas | 5-11 | 165 | 4.21/40 | Round 1-2
1.11 WR8 | Tier 3 | Adonai Mitchell | Texas | 6-4 | 196 | 4.34/40 | Round 1-2
1.12 RB2 | Tier 1 | Jonathon Brooks | Texas | 6-0 | 216 | (injury) | Round 2-3
TIER FOUR
2.01 RB3 | Tier 2 | Blake Corum | Michigan | 5-8 | 205 | 4.53/40 | Round 2-3
2.02 WR9 | Tier 4 | Roman Wilson | Michigan | 5-11 | 185 | 4.39/40 | Round 2
2.03 WR10 | Tier 4 | Ricky Pearsall | Florida | 6-1 | 189 | 4.41/40 | Round 2
2.04 RB4 | Tier 2 | Jaylen Wright | Tennessee | 5-10 | 210 | 4.38/40 | Round 2-3
2.05 RB5 | Tier 2 | Marshawn Lloyd | USC | 5-9 | 220 | 4.46/40 | Round 3-4
2.06 QB2 | Tier 2 | Drake Maye | North Carolina | 6-4 | 230 | — | Round 1
2.07 QB3 | Tier 2 | Jayden Daniels | LSU | 6-4 | 210? | – | Round 1
2.08 WR11 | Tier 4 | Keon Coleman | Florida State | 6-4 | 215 | 4.64/40 | Round 1-2
2.09 WR12 | Tier 4 | Malachi Corley | Western Kentucky | 5-11 | 215 | Round 2
2.10 WR13 | Tier 4 | Xavier Legette | South Carolina | 6-1 | 221 | 4.39/40 | Round 2
TIER FIVE
2.11 QB4 | Tier 3 | J.J. McCarthy | Michigan | 6-3 | 202 | – | Round 1
2.12 WR14 | Tier 5 | Brenden Rice | USC | 6-2 | 208 | 4.50/40 | Round 3
3.01 WR15 | Tier 5 | Luke McCaffrey | Rice | 6-2 | 198 | 4.46/40 | Round 4
3.02 WR16 | Tier 5 | Javon Baker | Central Florida | 6-1 | 202 | 4.54/40 | Round 3-4
3.03 RB6 | Tier 3 | Braelon Allen | Wisconsin | 6-1 | 235 | – | Round 3
3.04 RB7 | Tier 3 | Bucky Irving | Oregon | 5-10 | 195 | 4.55/40 | Round 4
3.05 WR17 | Tier 5 | Ja’Lynn Polk | Washington | 6-1 | 203 | 4.52/40 | Round 2-3
TIER SIX
3.06 WR18 | Tier 6 | Jermaine Burton | Alabama | 6-0 | 196 | 4.45/40 | Round 3
3.07 RB8 | Tier 4 | Will Shipley | Clemson | 5-11 | 206 | – | Round 3
3.08 RB9 | Tier 4 | Ray Davis | Kentucky | 5-8 | 211 | 4.52/40 | Round 4
3.09 WR19 | Tier 6 | Devontez Walker | North Carolina | 6-3 | 200 | 4.36/40 | Round 2
3.10 WR20 | Tier 6 | Malik Washington | Virginia | 5-8.5 | 191 | 4.47/40 | Round 4
3.11 QB5 | Tier 4 | Bo Nix | Oregon | 6-2 | 214 | – | Round 2
3.12 QB6 | Tier 4 | Michael Penix Jr. | Washington | 6-2 | 216 | – | Round 2
TIER SEVEN
4.01 WR21 | Tier 7 | Jalen McMillan | Washington | 6-1 | 197 | 4.47/40 | Round 3
4.02 WR22 | Tier 7 | Johnny Wilson | Florida State | 6-6 | 231 | 4.52/40 | Round 3
4.03 WR23 | Tier 7 | Jacob Cowing | Arizona | 5-8 | 168 | 4.38/40 | Round 5
4.04 WR24 | Tier 7 | Jamari Thrash | Louisville | 6-0 | 188 | 4.46/40 | Round 4
4.05 RB10 | Tier 5 | Isaac Guerendo | Louisville | 6-0 | 221 | 4.33/40 | Round 5
4.06 TE2 | Tier 2 | Ja’Tavion Sanders | Texas | 6-4 | 245 | 4.69/40 | Round 2
4.07 WR25 | Tier 7 | Tahj Washington | USC | 5-10 | 174 | – | Round 6
4.08 RB11 | Tier 5 | Tyrone Tracy, Jr. | Purdue | 5-11 | 209 | 4.48/40 | Round 7
TIER EIGHT
4.09 TE3 | Tier 3 | Theo Johnson | Penn State | 6-6 | 259 | 4.57/40 | Round 4
4.10 WR25 | Tier 8 | Jerrod “Bub” Means | Pittsburgh | 6-1 | 212 | 4.43/40 | Round 7
4.11 WR26 | Tier 8 | Ryan Flournoy | Southeast Missouri State | 6-1 | 202 | 4.44/40 | Round 5
4.12 RB12 | Tier 6 | Audric Estimé | Notre Dame | 5-11 | 221 | 4.71/40 | Round 4
5.01 RB13 | Tier 6 | Dillon Johnson | Washington | 6-0 | 217 | 4.68/40 | Round 5
5.02 RB14 | Tier 6 | Frank Gore Jr. | Southern Miss | 5-8 | 201 | – | Round 6
5.03 RB15 | Tier 6 | Dylan Laube | Delaware | 5-9 | 210 | 4.54/40 | Round 5
5.04 QB7 | Tier 5 | Spencer Rattler | South Carolina | 6-0 | 211 | 4.95/40 | Round 3
5.05 WR27 | Tier 8 | Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint | Georgia | 6-1 | 195 | – | Round 6
5.06 WR28 | Tier 8 | Ainias Smith | Texas A&M | 5-9 | 190 | – | Round 5
5.07 RB16 | Tier 6 | Blake Watson | Memphis | 5-9 | 195 | – | Round 7
5.08 WR29 | Tier 8 | Jha’Quan Jackson | Tulane | 5-9 | 188 | 4.42/40 | Round 6
5.09 RB17 | Tier 6 | Kendall Milton | Georgia | 6-2 | 225 | 4.62/40 | Round 6
5.10 WR30 | Tier 8 | Jalen Coker | Holy Cross | 6-1 | 208 | 4.57/40 | Round 7
5.11 RB18 | Tier 6 | Isaiah Davis | South Dakota State | 6-0 | 218 | 4.57/40 | Round 6
5.12 RB19 | Tier 6 | Rasheen Ali | Marshall | 5-11 | 206 | – | Round 7
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Just wanted to say; you bomb atomically Socrates philosophies and hypotheses. I can't define how you be dropping these mockeries.
Sorry, my dad joke loving/90s rap listener self has wanted to say that since last year. Appreciate your posts and rankings!
Sorry, my dad joke loving/90s rap listener self has wanted to say that since last year. Appreciate your posts and rankings!
Tha Guru
Footballguy
Rebel INS.......nasty verse
massraider
Footballguy
Taking a look BTS Draft QB Evaluations & Answering Mailbag Questions | PFF NFL Show
PFF's Sam Monson and Steve Palazzolo answer the mailbag and then talk to Josh Lucas, Director of Player Personnel from 2016-2021.0:00 - Intro4:12 - Answering...
www.youtube.com
PFF podcast with an interview with former Bears director of player personnel.
Discussed the QBs, and really interesting. Starts around 38 min
@GregoryLKellogg
Footballguy
First I applaud your efforts. Trying to do this before the draft is gutsy - some would say foolhardy. But I love your style. Like others, I disagree with several of your rankings but like you, I am going to be wrong on mine as well.
Anyway kudos for putting yours out!
@GregoryLKellogg
Footballguy
Combine weights are deceptive. Players can be. As much as 10-15 pounds off their playing weight depending on their workout regimen used to prepare for the combine
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
I just noticed that the weight which was listed for him in Socrates list (207) didn't match the one that was given at the combine (216).
I'm assuming most of the other weights were from the combine numbers so was just trying to help with consistency.
@GregoryLKellogg
Footballguy
Why? Do you believe one is inherently a more accurate picture of playing weight than the other? Do you think that there is a huge difference between backs who are 207 and those who are 216? Devon Achane played pretty well at sub 190. So did Warrick Dunn. Barry Sanders 203, Curtis Martin 205, Walter Peyton 200. NFL history is littered with players you might consider too small who succeede
More info is always good. Team websites aren’t always correct but players both gain and lose weight when preparing for the combine. I tend to lean more on tape and stats more than height and weight unless the player is at an extreme (like Bryce Young and Devon Achane).
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Brooks isn't a light RB. I'm pretty sure he's a 3 down back once he's 100% and gets the opportunity.
@GregoryLKellogg
Footballguy
I agree. I just don’t expect him to be right until 2025.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Yeah for sure. A few posts after I did clarify my thoughts on his weight. I suspect he's probably within the 'acceptable' range of weight for a guy we hope has three down potential (205-220).
I also figured his weight could go a variety of ways. It's possible he becomes lighter once his training intensifies, I'd also say it had the chance to increase as he packs on more muscle. Either way it's not much of a concern. He's clearly a good player and seems strong enough.
socrates
Footballguy
Thank you @GregoryLKellog. Rankings have no doubt changed considerably over the past several months. My early rankings are, in large part, for reference. I find that it helps me to have a baseline sourced mostly from on-field (college) performance before the media onslaught, that way, when I deviate from my early rankings (and I often deviate considerably), I at least have a reference point. I updated my rankings after the Scouting Combine to take into consideration the weigh-ins and workout numbers, but I have not posted an update with most of the Pro Day numbers.
Perhaps it is a bit foolhardy, but I am quite open to debate and criticism. When I am forced to defend my rankings, I sometimes discover I don't have a solid justification for my rankings, and I make adjustments. I don't care all that much about being right, especially in my early rankings. (I have been playing Fantasy Football for nearly 35 years; I have been wrong more times than I can recall!) I am far more interested in making informed decisions at my Fantasy Drafts!
Time permitting, I will post some new rankings on Sunday or Monday.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
That's why I think he's a bargain in the 2nd round of rookie drafts unless Dallas drafts him in the 2nd, which they may not for the reason I gave in the Brooks thread.
"The big question about Dallas and Brooks is they probably want to take a RB that is full-go in 2024 to start the year, not someone that may require some more recovery time from his injury. When I say recovery time, it means Brooks not being 100% to start the year, not necessarily on PUP, but may be. I can see them taking someone like Jaylen Wright or Blake Corum in the 2nd round. Or if they are having a brain fart, Trey Benson."
Big Nate
Footballguy
So on the Brooks topic - if he didn't have the knee injury would he be in the 1.07-1.09 range in SF? Maybe even 1.05 or 6 if he hits a banger landing spot and no injury? As we have seen, most top RBs come back fine from knee injuries, especially when young (he's only 20). Almost everything I have seen and read about him prior to injury was very good.
This seems like a steal right now in rookie drafts, getting an RB like him at the end of the first or even top of the 2nd round in rookie drafts. In the dynasty picture does a slow start to 2025 matter? He has a built in excuse if he doesn't knock it out of the park in year 1. Year 2 his value should still be there no matter what happens in year 1 unless something catastrophic happens.
This seems like a steal right now in rookie drafts, getting an RB like him at the end of the first or even top of the 2nd round in rookie drafts. In the dynasty picture does a slow start to 2025 matter? He has a built in excuse if he doesn't knock it out of the park in year 1. Year 2 his value should still be there no matter what happens in year 1 unless something catastrophic happens.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
I play in a standard league and if he gets round 2 draft capital he'll be in play from 1.05 onward I think.
@GregoryLKellogg
Footballguy
“I am quite open to debate and criticism.” This quality makes you an excellent source for fantasy folks! Also the fact that you are willing to be convinced you might be wrong allows you to be flexible enough to be great!
Big Nate
Footballguy
I think Brooks is going to be a big riser after the NFL draft and throughout this summer. Those that draft early will benefit from the lack of injury updates. Currently his target is to be ready for training camp. Now he might not be 100% for the 2025 season but at 20 years old he has lots of football left in him - assuming he does fully recover and so far it sounds good.
socrates
Footballguy
Thanks, but I know enough to realize I am no better at projections than most others. I have been humbled enough times to have learned not to dig my heels in too firmly.
Marriage will convince any man he is generally wrong! lol
@GregoryLKellogg
Footballguy
47 years + raising 3 girls. I am never right!
massraider
Footballguy
There is absolutely a correlation between weight, and fantasy success.
NFL teams don't give a lot of touches to guys that are light. JJ Zach touches on this in his work.
@GregoryLKellogg
Footballguy
Really? 3,062 carries over 10 seasons. 203 lb back.
3,518 carries over 11 years. 210 lb back.
2,669 carries plus 510 receptions (265 touches per year). 188 lb back.
1,847 carries and 346 receptions (244 touches per year). 210 lb back.
272 carries and 67 receptions in 2023. 210 lb back.
228 carries and 32 receptions in 2023. 194 lb back
182 carries and 52 receptions in 2023. In a committee. 200 lb back.
It’s not about size. It’s about talent and production.
3,518 carries over 11 years. 210 lb back.
2,669 carries plus 510 receptions (265 touches per year). 188 lb back.
1,847 carries and 346 receptions (244 touches per year). 210 lb back.
272 carries and 67 receptions in 2023. 210 lb back.
228 carries and 32 receptions in 2023. 194 lb back
182 carries and 52 receptions in 2023. In a committee. 200 lb back.
It’s not about size. It’s about talent and production.
@GregoryLKellogg
Footballguy
I love JJ but still think it’s best to do my own research. BTW, the backs I referred to were Barry Sanders, Curtis Martin, Warrick Dunn, Maurice Jones Drew historically. Then the 2023 backs were Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs. I wanted to show historical and current usage. A real analysis would be to look at all the starting RBs, including committee backs, and compare usage and statistics by size group. I won’t do it because I am semi-retired but I would read anyone who does. I would also love to host the author on my podcast to discuss it - even if it refutes my presuppositions.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I have seen some research that does show weight as one of the metrics that has some correlation to RB performance. The other metrics that mattered were 40 time and 3 cone drill. RB don't seem to do the 3 cone drill anymore. So while the study I am referring to found that to have some connection to performance the NFL does not need that data, otherwise the RB would still be doing that drill.
That said how much weight is enough? That's not really clear. Just that weighing more was better.
The NFL is changing and I think RB who weigh less are not discounted by NFL teams if they are good in other traits. NFL teams are not looking for that 3 down RB as much as they used to. These players can do well in a RBBC.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Please tell my wife that.
@GregoryLKellogg
Footballguy
47 years married. 155 when we met, 283 now and she is still with me. I bet your wife looks at your weight much less than you do.
Unless your talent and performance has dropped of course.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
That's quite a jump there.
