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wannabee Strategy Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter wannabee
- Start date
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
that's my thinking...I'm going to run some scenarios with the DD this weekend again and see how my options play out before actually pulling the trigger.I guarantee this guy will either go Manning Tiki, or Portis in the 1st Round....
Last edited by a moderator:
wannabee
Footballguy
I know some/most have heard the name Dr. Doug Drinen used in passing. Doug is WAY underrated around these parts. Doug is a Math professor at the university level, so when I see him do the math, I assume it is legit and take it for granted.
I would like to share some of his work (articles, posts, etc) with the next few posts.
Doug has a strong resource for fantasy stats. Here is the link: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/ . Play around with the players and sort. I like being able to look up team stats for many years at one time. Also, for those of you Excel geeks, you can download the raw data: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/download/ and sort any way you want.
But, for those of you that like to read, and learn more about fantasy football strategy, check out the blog: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/ I would urge you to read the "deterioration of RBs I, II, & III (also available through this site - footballguys.com).
Here is a sample of a player page:
Game-by-game data | 2004 | 2005 |
+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Rushing | Receiving |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 2004 den | 14 | 75 396 5.3 3 | 5 80 16.0 0 |
| 2005 den | 15 | 173 921 5.3 8 | 18 104 5.8 0 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| TOTAL | 29 | 248 1317 5.3 11 | 23 184 8.0 0 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
Tatum Bell never finished in the top 10 in any major category.
Tatum Bell is not in the all-time top 50 in any major category.
Postseason data
Please read this fine print before using this data or sending questions or corrections.
Year Opp Result | RSH YD TD | REC YD TD
---------------------+-----------------+-----------------
2004 ind L,24-49 | 12 49 0 | 4 30 0
2005 nwe W,27-13 | 6 19 0 | 0 0 0
2005 pit L,17-34 | 4 20 0 | 5 28 0
---------------------+-----------------+-----------------
TOTAL | 22 88 0 | 9 58 0
Fantasy Football Data
Explanation
Year Value Pos. Rank Overall Rank
--------------------------------------------------
2004 0 47 269
2005 7 22 64
--------------------------------------------------
7
I would like to share some of his work (articles, posts, etc) with the next few posts.
Doug has a strong resource for fantasy stats. Here is the link: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/ . Play around with the players and sort. I like being able to look up team stats for many years at one time. Also, for those of you Excel geeks, you can download the raw data: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/download/ and sort any way you want.
But, for those of you that like to read, and learn more about fantasy football strategy, check out the blog: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/wordpress/ I would urge you to read the "deterioration of RBs I, II, & III (also available through this site - footballguys.com).
Here is a sample of a player page:
Game-by-game data | 2004 | 2005 |
+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Rushing | Receiving |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 2004 den | 14 | 75 396 5.3 3 | 5 80 16.0 0 |
| 2005 den | 15 | 173 921 5.3 8 | 18 104 5.8 0 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| TOTAL | 29 | 248 1317 5.3 11 | 23 184 8.0 0 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
Tatum Bell never finished in the top 10 in any major category.
Tatum Bell is not in the all-time top 50 in any major category.
Postseason data
Please read this fine print before using this data or sending questions or corrections.
Year Opp Result | RSH YD TD | REC YD TD
---------------------+-----------------+-----------------
2004 ind L,24-49 | 12 49 0 | 4 30 0
2005 nwe W,27-13 | 6 19 0 | 0 0 0
2005 pit L,17-34 | 4 20 0 | 5 28 0
---------------------+-----------------+-----------------
TOTAL | 22 88 0 | 9 58 0
Fantasy Football Data
Explanation
Year Value Pos. Rank Overall Rank
--------------------------------------------------
2004 0 47 269
2005 7 22 64
--------------------------------------------------
7
Last edited by a moderator:
wannabee
Footballguy
Dr. Doug Drinen had an article in 2002, with a follow up, about WR consistency when both are on the same time.
Here is the first article. Next post to include the follow up.
http://www.footballguys.com/drinennotebook3.cfm
Drinen's Notebook: September 19, 2002
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's a question that gets asked a lot, both before and during the season:
Is it a bad idea to have two starting WRs on your fantasy team come from the same NFL team?
I did a very brief and inconclusive study on this a couple of years ago, and have been meaning to revisit the topic ever since. I finally got around to doing that study right, and I'm here to report the results. I'll let the cat out of the bag and state my conclusion first, because it's such an interesting one.
To the extent that it matters (which is not much), starting two WRs from the same NFL team is the safe play, not the risky one. Same-team WR duos have historically been more consistent, as a pair, than different-team WR duos of similar quality. That conclusion, as usual, comes with a caveat or two, and raises a few other questions, which I'll detail at the end of the article.
To give you a feel for how I set up the study, I'll open with an example that's near and dear to my heart: the Torry Holt/Isaac Bruce combo, a combo that formed the starting WR unit on my keeper league team for 2000 and 2001 (not anymore though, I dealt Bruce in the offseason). In 2001, the Holt/Bruce pair's week-by-week fantasy point totals looked like this:
T Holt (178) 9 2 17 13 8 4 13 8 15 14 13 7 6 9 32 10
I Bruce (149) 9 20 4 8 5 4 24 10 13 8 5 5 27 1 8 1
TOTAL 17 22 21 21 13 8 37 18 28 21 17 12 32 9 40 10
That's their scores by week, along with the weekly total in the bottom row. The number in parentheses is the player's yearly fantasy point total. And the question is: Was the Holt/Bruce duo, as a duo, consistent? The answer is: they were more consistent than some duos and less consistent than others. For the purposes of this discussion, it only makes sense to compare them to duos like this one:
J Horn (181) 5 5 4 8 7 24 22 15 10 21 20 9 18 1 4
I Bruce (149) 9 4 8 5 4 24 10 13 8 5 5 27 1 8 1
TOTAL 13 9 12 13 11 48 32 28 17 26 25 36 18 9 5
Here I've thrown out both Horn's and Bruce's bye weeks, which is why you only see 15 scores there. But the point is, Horn and Holt had nearly identical fantasy point totals for the season, so Horn/Bruce vs. Holt/Bruce is a fair comparison. So which line of totals is more consistent: the Horn/Bruce line or the Holt/Bruce line? Using standard deviation as my measure of consistency, the answer is: the Holt/Bruce pair (standard deviation: 9.3) was more consistent than the Horn/Bruce pair (standard deviation: 11.6).
On the other hand.....
Qadry Ismail and Isaac Bruce had about the same total production last year, so we could also compare Holt/Bruce to Holt/Ismail. In this case, the Holt/Bruce team comes out looking less consistent:
T Holt (178) 9 2 17 13 8 4 13 8 15 14 13 6 9 32 10
Q Ismail (148) 9 6 10 15 8 15 15 19 7 4 14 11 3 4 3
TOTAL 17 8 28 29 16 19 28 27 22 18 26 17 12 36 13
Standard Deviation: 7.4
So I looked at all pairings of Holt or Bruce with a receiver whose fantasy point total was within 10 points of the other (also, I'm only including WRs who played 16 games). There turned out to be 10 such pairs, including the two you've already seen. Here they are:
T Holt (178) 9 2 17 13 8 4 13 8 15 14 13 7 6 9 32 10
I Bruce (149) 9 20 4 8 5 4 24 10 13 8 5 5 27 1 8 1
TOTAL 17 22 21 21 13 8 37 18 28 21 17 12 32 9 40 10
Standard Deviation: 9.3
COMPARABLE DUOS:
T Brown (174) 20 2 5 11 15 4 15 12 24 20 4 5 3 8 6
I Bruce (149) 9 20 4 8 5 24 10 13 8 5 5 27 1 8 1
TOTAL 29 22 8 19 19 28 25 25 31 25 9 31 4 15 6
Standard Deviation: 9.0
T Holt (178) 9 2 13 8 4 13 8 15 14 13 7 6 9 32 10
J Morton (140) 11 16 4 13 17 7 6 15 7 1 6 7 3 10 15
TOTAL 20 18 17 21 22 21 14 30 21 14 12 13 11 42 25
Standard Deviation: 7.7
T Holt (178) 9 2 17 13 4 13 8 15 14 13 7 6 9 32 10
P Price (141) 6 14 0 16 1 21 12 20 2 2 11 7 7 14 5
TOTAL 15 16 17 30 5 34 20 35 16 14 17 12 16 47 15
Standard Deviation: 10.5
T Holt (178) 9 2 17 13 8 13 8 15 14 13 7 6 9 32 10
D Jackson (157) 2 1 13 5 4 18 16 5 6 8 16 9 3 23 19
TOTAL 10 2 30 18 12 31 24 20 20 20 23 14 11 56 29
Standard Deviation: 12.0
T Holt (178) 9 2 17 13 4 13 8 15 14 13 7 6 9 32 10
K McCardell (147) 1 5 8 10 3 12 12 9 8 8 15 6 10 19 15
TOTAL 9 6 25 23 8 25 20 24 22 21 22 12 18 52 25
Standard Deviation: 10.4
R Moss (188) 3 8 10 11 8 7 11 16 37 3 20 22 26 3 2 2
I Bruce (149) 9 20 4 8 5 4 24 10 13 8 5 5 27 1 8 1
TOTAL 12 29 13 18 13 11 35 25 50 10 25 27 53 4 10 3
Standard Deviation: 14.5
J Horn (181) 5 5 4 8 7 24 22 15 10 21 20 9 18 1 4
I Bruce (149) 9 4 8 5 4 24 10 13 8 5 5 27 1 8 1
TOTAL 13 9 12 13 11 48 32 28 17 26 25 36 18 9 5
Standard Deviation: 11.6
T Holt (178) 9 2 17 13 8 4 13 8 15 13 7 6 9 32 10
L Coles (140) 11 2 6 9 20 2 10 4 10 12 2 4 6 12 17
TOTAL 20 4 23 23 28 6 23 12 25 25 9 10 15 44 27
Standard Deviation: 10.1
J Smith (185) 25 9 9 7 5 18 12 7 12 12 18 11 12 5 12
I Bruce (149) 9 20 4 8 4 24 10 13 8 5 5 27 1 8 1
TOTAL 34 29 12 15 9 42 22 20 20 16 23 38 13 13 13
Standard Deviation: 9.8
T Holt (178) 9 2 17 13 8 4 13 8 15 14 13 6 9 32 10
Q Ismail (148) 9 6 10 15 8 15 15 19 7 4 14 11 3 4 3
TOTAL 17 8 28 29 16 19 28 27 22 18 26 17 12 36 13
Standard Deviation: 7.4
In seven of the 10 cases, Holt/Bruce was more consistent than the comparable pair, which indicates that, at least in this instance, the same-team pair is a more conservative, more consistent, less risky tandem.
But one case does not a study make. Oh no. I searched the database for all same-team pairs of WRs since 1995 such that both WRs played 16 games and both WRs finished among the top 20 receivers in terms of total fantasy points. I found, including Holt/Bruce 2001, 20 such pairs, from Conway/Graham of the 1995 Bears to Johnson/Chrebet of the 1998 Jets to Brown/Rice of the 2001 Raiders. Here is the full list:
TM Year WR #1 Rank WR #2 Rank
----------------------------------------------------------
min 1998: Randy Moss 1 Cris Carter 7
det 1996: Herman Moore 6 Brett Perriman 20
jax 1997: Jimmy Smith 11 Keenan McCardell 17
den 2000: Rod Smith 4 Ed McCaffrey 8
oak 1997: Tim Brown 8 James Jett 14
min 1999: Randy Moss 2 Cris Carter 3
det 1997: Herman Moore 7 Johnnie Morton 18
atl 1998: Terance Mathis 6 Tony Martin 16
min 2000: Randy Moss 1 Cris Carter 10
chi 1995: Curtis Conway 12 Jeff Graham 19
jax 2001: Jimmy Smith 6 Keenan McCardell 19
det 1995: Herman Moore 3 Brett Perriman 8
oak 2001: Tim Brown 9 Jerry Rice 10
ram 2000: Isaac Bruce 6 Torry Holt 7
ram 2001: Torry Holt 8 Isaac Bruce 17
nyj 1998: Keyshawn Johnson 5 Wayne Chrebet 13
min 1995: Cris Carter 4 Jake Reed 13
sfo 1998: Terrell Owens 3 Jerry Rice 8
min 1996: Cris Carter 7 Jake Reed 9
min 1997: Cris Carter 4 Jake Reed 16
Then I took each of those 20 pairs and looked for comparable pairs just like we did with Holt and Bruce. Some of the duos had numerous comps, while others had few. Some of these duos turned out to be very consistent (Carter/Reed 96, for example) and some of were not (Brown/Jett 97). The following table summarizes the results. In it, the "More" column indicates the number of instances in which the same-team tandem was more consistent than the comparable pair and "Less" indicates the number of cases where the same-team tandem was less consistent. If you're interested in viewing the week-by-week scores for each and every set of comps, they're right here.
Comparable
Team Pairs More Less
--------------------------------------------
min 1996 9 9 0
jax 2001 8 8 0
min 1995 3 3 0
det 1995 1 1 0
det 1996 11 10 1
min 1998 5 4 1
min 2000 4 3 1
oak 2001 9 7 2
sfo 1998 5 4 1
det 1997 11 7 4
ram 2001 10 7 3
nyj 1998 8 5 3
jax 1997 10 6 4
min 1999 2 1 1
ram 2000 2 1 1
min 1997 10 4 6
atl 1998 7 3 4
den 2000 4 1 3
oak 1997 10 2 8
chi 1995 4 0 4
On 13 occasions, the same-team pair was more consistent than the majority of its comparables, and only 5 times was the same-team pair less consistent than the majority of its comps (and two "ties" makes 20).
Takeaway lessons
You're free to examine the above data and methodology and conclude what you may. But here, inside a neat little box, is what I'm taking from all this:
If you've got two good WRs, do not worry if they come from the same NFL squad. At all. Not even a little. I would certainly stop short of advocating that you actively try to acquire same-team receiving pairs, but if anything, this kind of stacking will make your team more consistent, not less. And if your team is strong in general (which I'm assuming it is for most of you reading this), consistency is a good thing.
Finally, a few things to ponder:
1. The if clause that leads off the above paragraph is a crucial one. The study I ran focused only on pairs of WRs that were known after-the-fact to be top-20 WRs. If you're sitting on Peerless Price and Eric Moulds, for instance, it's not clear right now whether this study applies to them or not. If they both turn in good years, then there's no reason to be worried about pairing them. But the question is: might the presence of Moulds actually inhibit Price from turning in a good year (and/or vice versa)? In other words, this study seems applicable to cases where you've got two no-questions-asked top-20 WRs. That's not a particularly rare situation, but the glory days of Moss/Carter and Rice/Owens are gone. Bruce/Holt still looks like a strong pair, and there are tons of duos with the potential, including some of the old lions like Smith/McCaffrey, but it's tough to say right now which of them will emerge.
2. Will we get similar results for other kinds of indirect pairings, like QB/RB or RB/WR? I suppose that, for completeness' sake, I should run the numbers on QB/WR pairs as well, but I'd be stunned if that didn't turn out the way we expect it to. Unless I hear complaints, I'll address those questions next week.
Here is the first article. Next post to include the follow up.
http://www.footballguys.com/drinennotebook3.cfm
Drinen's Notebook: September 19, 2002
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's a question that gets asked a lot, both before and during the season:
Is it a bad idea to have two starting WRs on your fantasy team come from the same NFL team?
I did a very brief and inconclusive study on this a couple of years ago, and have been meaning to revisit the topic ever since. I finally got around to doing that study right, and I'm here to report the results. I'll let the cat out of the bag and state my conclusion first, because it's such an interesting one.
To the extent that it matters (which is not much), starting two WRs from the same NFL team is the safe play, not the risky one. Same-team WR duos have historically been more consistent, as a pair, than different-team WR duos of similar quality. That conclusion, as usual, comes with a caveat or two, and raises a few other questions, which I'll detail at the end of the article.
To give you a feel for how I set up the study, I'll open with an example that's near and dear to my heart: the Torry Holt/Isaac Bruce combo, a combo that formed the starting WR unit on my keeper league team for 2000 and 2001 (not anymore though, I dealt Bruce in the offseason). In 2001, the Holt/Bruce pair's week-by-week fantasy point totals looked like this:
T Holt (178) 9 2 17 13 8 4 13 8 15 14 13 7 6 9 32 10
I Bruce (149) 9 20 4 8 5 4 24 10 13 8 5 5 27 1 8 1
TOTAL 17 22 21 21 13 8 37 18 28 21 17 12 32 9 40 10
That's their scores by week, along with the weekly total in the bottom row. The number in parentheses is the player's yearly fantasy point total. And the question is: Was the Holt/Bruce duo, as a duo, consistent? The answer is: they were more consistent than some duos and less consistent than others. For the purposes of this discussion, it only makes sense to compare them to duos like this one:
J Horn (181) 5 5 4 8 7 24 22 15 10 21 20 9 18 1 4
I Bruce (149) 9 4 8 5 4 24 10 13 8 5 5 27 1 8 1
TOTAL 13 9 12 13 11 48 32 28 17 26 25 36 18 9 5
Here I've thrown out both Horn's and Bruce's bye weeks, which is why you only see 15 scores there. But the point is, Horn and Holt had nearly identical fantasy point totals for the season, so Horn/Bruce vs. Holt/Bruce is a fair comparison. So which line of totals is more consistent: the Horn/Bruce line or the Holt/Bruce line? Using standard deviation as my measure of consistency, the answer is: the Holt/Bruce pair (standard deviation: 9.3) was more consistent than the Horn/Bruce pair (standard deviation: 11.6).
On the other hand.....
Qadry Ismail and Isaac Bruce had about the same total production last year, so we could also compare Holt/Bruce to Holt/Ismail. In this case, the Holt/Bruce team comes out looking less consistent:
T Holt (178) 9 2 17 13 8 4 13 8 15 14 13 6 9 32 10
Q Ismail (148) 9 6 10 15 8 15 15 19 7 4 14 11 3 4 3
TOTAL 17 8 28 29 16 19 28 27 22 18 26 17 12 36 13
Standard Deviation: 7.4
So I looked at all pairings of Holt or Bruce with a receiver whose fantasy point total was within 10 points of the other (also, I'm only including WRs who played 16 games). There turned out to be 10 such pairs, including the two you've already seen. Here they are:
T Holt (178) 9 2 17 13 8 4 13 8 15 14 13 7 6 9 32 10
I Bruce (149) 9 20 4 8 5 4 24 10 13 8 5 5 27 1 8 1
TOTAL 17 22 21 21 13 8 37 18 28 21 17 12 32 9 40 10
Standard Deviation: 9.3
COMPARABLE DUOS:
T Brown (174) 20 2 5 11 15 4 15 12 24 20 4 5 3 8 6
I Bruce (149) 9 20 4 8 5 24 10 13 8 5 5 27 1 8 1
TOTAL 29 22 8 19 19 28 25 25 31 25 9 31 4 15 6
Standard Deviation: 9.0
T Holt (178) 9 2 13 8 4 13 8 15 14 13 7 6 9 32 10
J Morton (140) 11 16 4 13 17 7 6 15 7 1 6 7 3 10 15
TOTAL 20 18 17 21 22 21 14 30 21 14 12 13 11 42 25
Standard Deviation: 7.7
T Holt (178) 9 2 17 13 4 13 8 15 14 13 7 6 9 32 10
P Price (141) 6 14 0 16 1 21 12 20 2 2 11 7 7 14 5
TOTAL 15 16 17 30 5 34 20 35 16 14 17 12 16 47 15
Standard Deviation: 10.5
T Holt (178) 9 2 17 13 8 13 8 15 14 13 7 6 9 32 10
D Jackson (157) 2 1 13 5 4 18 16 5 6 8 16 9 3 23 19
TOTAL 10 2 30 18 12 31 24 20 20 20 23 14 11 56 29
Standard Deviation: 12.0
T Holt (178) 9 2 17 13 4 13 8 15 14 13 7 6 9 32 10
K McCardell (147) 1 5 8 10 3 12 12 9 8 8 15 6 10 19 15
TOTAL 9 6 25 23 8 25 20 24 22 21 22 12 18 52 25
Standard Deviation: 10.4
R Moss (188) 3 8 10 11 8 7 11 16 37 3 20 22 26 3 2 2
I Bruce (149) 9 20 4 8 5 4 24 10 13 8 5 5 27 1 8 1
TOTAL 12 29 13 18 13 11 35 25 50 10 25 27 53 4 10 3
Standard Deviation: 14.5
J Horn (181) 5 5 4 8 7 24 22 15 10 21 20 9 18 1 4
I Bruce (149) 9 4 8 5 4 24 10 13 8 5 5 27 1 8 1
TOTAL 13 9 12 13 11 48 32 28 17 26 25 36 18 9 5
Standard Deviation: 11.6
T Holt (178) 9 2 17 13 8 4 13 8 15 13 7 6 9 32 10
L Coles (140) 11 2 6 9 20 2 10 4 10 12 2 4 6 12 17
TOTAL 20 4 23 23 28 6 23 12 25 25 9 10 15 44 27
Standard Deviation: 10.1
J Smith (185) 25 9 9 7 5 18 12 7 12 12 18 11 12 5 12
I Bruce (149) 9 20 4 8 4 24 10 13 8 5 5 27 1 8 1
TOTAL 34 29 12 15 9 42 22 20 20 16 23 38 13 13 13
Standard Deviation: 9.8
T Holt (178) 9 2 17 13 8 4 13 8 15 14 13 6 9 32 10
Q Ismail (148) 9 6 10 15 8 15 15 19 7 4 14 11 3 4 3
TOTAL 17 8 28 29 16 19 28 27 22 18 26 17 12 36 13
Standard Deviation: 7.4
In seven of the 10 cases, Holt/Bruce was more consistent than the comparable pair, which indicates that, at least in this instance, the same-team pair is a more conservative, more consistent, less risky tandem.
But one case does not a study make. Oh no. I searched the database for all same-team pairs of WRs since 1995 such that both WRs played 16 games and both WRs finished among the top 20 receivers in terms of total fantasy points. I found, including Holt/Bruce 2001, 20 such pairs, from Conway/Graham of the 1995 Bears to Johnson/Chrebet of the 1998 Jets to Brown/Rice of the 2001 Raiders. Here is the full list:
TM Year WR #1 Rank WR #2 Rank
----------------------------------------------------------
min 1998: Randy Moss 1 Cris Carter 7
det 1996: Herman Moore 6 Brett Perriman 20
jax 1997: Jimmy Smith 11 Keenan McCardell 17
den 2000: Rod Smith 4 Ed McCaffrey 8
oak 1997: Tim Brown 8 James Jett 14
min 1999: Randy Moss 2 Cris Carter 3
det 1997: Herman Moore 7 Johnnie Morton 18
atl 1998: Terance Mathis 6 Tony Martin 16
min 2000: Randy Moss 1 Cris Carter 10
chi 1995: Curtis Conway 12 Jeff Graham 19
jax 2001: Jimmy Smith 6 Keenan McCardell 19
det 1995: Herman Moore 3 Brett Perriman 8
oak 2001: Tim Brown 9 Jerry Rice 10
ram 2000: Isaac Bruce 6 Torry Holt 7
ram 2001: Torry Holt 8 Isaac Bruce 17
nyj 1998: Keyshawn Johnson 5 Wayne Chrebet 13
min 1995: Cris Carter 4 Jake Reed 13
sfo 1998: Terrell Owens 3 Jerry Rice 8
min 1996: Cris Carter 7 Jake Reed 9
min 1997: Cris Carter 4 Jake Reed 16
Then I took each of those 20 pairs and looked for comparable pairs just like we did with Holt and Bruce. Some of the duos had numerous comps, while others had few. Some of these duos turned out to be very consistent (Carter/Reed 96, for example) and some of were not (Brown/Jett 97). The following table summarizes the results. In it, the "More" column indicates the number of instances in which the same-team tandem was more consistent than the comparable pair and "Less" indicates the number of cases where the same-team tandem was less consistent. If you're interested in viewing the week-by-week scores for each and every set of comps, they're right here.
Comparable
Team Pairs More Less
--------------------------------------------
min 1996 9 9 0
jax 2001 8 8 0
min 1995 3 3 0
det 1995 1 1 0
det 1996 11 10 1
min 1998 5 4 1
min 2000 4 3 1
oak 2001 9 7 2
sfo 1998 5 4 1
det 1997 11 7 4
ram 2001 10 7 3
nyj 1998 8 5 3
jax 1997 10 6 4
min 1999 2 1 1
ram 2000 2 1 1
min 1997 10 4 6
atl 1998 7 3 4
den 2000 4 1 3
oak 1997 10 2 8
chi 1995 4 0 4
On 13 occasions, the same-team pair was more consistent than the majority of its comparables, and only 5 times was the same-team pair less consistent than the majority of its comps (and two "ties" makes 20).
Takeaway lessons
You're free to examine the above data and methodology and conclude what you may. But here, inside a neat little box, is what I'm taking from all this:
If you've got two good WRs, do not worry if they come from the same NFL squad. At all. Not even a little. I would certainly stop short of advocating that you actively try to acquire same-team receiving pairs, but if anything, this kind of stacking will make your team more consistent, not less. And if your team is strong in general (which I'm assuming it is for most of you reading this), consistency is a good thing.
Finally, a few things to ponder:
1. The if clause that leads off the above paragraph is a crucial one. The study I ran focused only on pairs of WRs that were known after-the-fact to be top-20 WRs. If you're sitting on Peerless Price and Eric Moulds, for instance, it's not clear right now whether this study applies to them or not. If they both turn in good years, then there's no reason to be worried about pairing them. But the question is: might the presence of Moulds actually inhibit Price from turning in a good year (and/or vice versa)? In other words, this study seems applicable to cases where you've got two no-questions-asked top-20 WRs. That's not a particularly rare situation, but the glory days of Moss/Carter and Rice/Owens are gone. Bruce/Holt still looks like a strong pair, and there are tons of duos with the potential, including some of the old lions like Smith/McCaffrey, but it's tough to say right now which of them will emerge.
2. Will we get similar results for other kinds of indirect pairings, like QB/RB or RB/WR? I suppose that, for completeness' sake, I should run the numbers on QB/WR pairs as well, but I'd be stunned if that didn't turn out the way we expect it to. Unless I hear complaints, I'll address those questions next week.
wannabee
Footballguy
The follow up article looks at RB/WR consistency and RB/QB consistency. Here is the follow up article:
http://www.footballguys.com/drinennotebook4.cfm
Drinen's Notebook: Thursday, September 26, 2002
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'll open with a table of contents, so you can skip to whatever you consider the good stuff (if any):
Reader mail: a reader wrote in with some interesting thoughts on last week's column, so I'll discuss them here.
Same team QB-RB and RB-WR pairs: I promised last week to take a look at this.
Random notebook entries: just some quick thoughts about the season's first three weeks.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In last week's column, I discussed the advisability of having two starting WRs from the same NFL team. I concluded that doing so does not introduce any extra risk; quite the opposite, in fact.
A reader named Joseph Lorenc wrote in, however, with a thought that's worth mentioning. While my study showed that if two receivers from the same NFL team did well, then using them as a tandem on your fantasy team is not risky. But there may be a risk on a higher level. Namely, the chances of them failing to perform well might be tied together.
Here's a study that would determine how much (if any) of a concern this is:
Look at all teams who had a pair of top 20 WRs in the preseason consensus rankings.
Track each of the two receivers through the season and give him a "+" if he outperforms expectations and a "-" if he underperforms.
If we see significantly more "++" and "--" pairs than we see "+-" and "-+" pairs, then that would say that there is risk, on the season level, in drafting a same-team pair.
Frankly, I have no idea how the above study would turn out. But I'd be interested to find out. I'll add it to the growing list of studies I'd like to do, but can't because I don't have enough data on preseason rankings. Fortunately, people like Michael Zangrilli and others are working to change this.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Anyway, last week I also promised to check on QB-RB pairs and RB-WR pairs, and that's what I'll do now.
I used the same methodology I used last week, with one minor exception (which you can read about on the data page), so I won't bore you with details. Here's what I found:
Since 1995, there have been 35 instances where a team's top RB and top WR both played 16 games and both finished in the top 20 at their positions. In 32 of those 35 cases, the same-team RB-WR pair was a more consistent game-to-game than the majority of their comparable pairs. In most cases, they were overwhelmingly more consistent.
Since 1995, there have been 22 instances where a team's QB has been in the top 10 and their top RB has been in the top 20 (again, with both playing 16 games). In 18 of the 22 cases, the same-team RB-QB pair was more consistent than the majority of their comparable pairs.
Here are the data sets: [RB-WR] [QB-RB]
These two results are stronger than the WR-WR results from last week, and I also believe they're more applicable. Same-team pairs of top-20 WRs are not rare, but they're not that common. Elite same-team QB-RB pairs and RB-WR pairs are all over the place. Further, I think that, since QB-RB pairs and RB-WR pairs encompass both the passing and running games of a team, as opposed to WR-WR pairs (which only involve one aspect of the offense), they are less risky in the sense we talked about in the opening paragraphs. For example, if the coaching staff decides to go more conservative, that hurts your WR, but helps your RB. If a team's top WR gets injured, that may hurt your QB, but it may help your RB (more red-zone looks, or more receptions).
So, while I've backtracked a little bit on the strong statements I made last week about WR-WR pairs, I'm going to make those same strong statements about QB-RB and WR-RB pairs: do not worry at all about having a same-NFL-team QB-RB or WR-RB pair. If anything, they will make your team more, not less, consistent.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Random Notebook Entries
You knew Donovan McNabb was having a good year, but did you know he has the highest first-three-week fantasy point total since 1995 (and possibly for awhile before that, but my game-by-game data only goes back to 95)? Here are the top 10:
First 3 Wks End-of-season
Name Year G FPT rank
----------------------------------------------------------
Donovan McNabb 2002 3 97
Steve Young 1995 3 95 10
Tom Brady 2002 3 87
Drew Bledsoe 1997 3 86 5
Brett Favre 1996 3 84 1
Donovan McNabb 2001 3 83 5
Brian Griese 2000 3 81 11
Kurt Warner 2001 3 78 2
Brett Favre 2002 3 74
Neil O'Donnell 1997 3 74 16
Priest Holmes is having a similarly "historic" start, but no WR is doing anything special at this point:
First 3 Wks End-of-season
Name Year G FPT rank
----------------------------------------------------------
Emmitt Smith 1995 3 89 1
Marshall Faulk 2000 3 89 1
Priest Holmes 2002 3 87
Stephen Davis 1999 3 82 4
Ricky Williams 2002 3 71
Marshall Faulk 2001 3 70 1
Terrell Davis 1998 3 68 1
Tiki Barber 2000 3 67 13
LaDainian Tomlinson 2001 3 66 7
Lamar Smith 2002 3 62
First 3 Wks End-of-season
Name Year G FPT rank
----------------------------------------------------------
Marvin Harrison 1999 3 78 1
Jerry Rice 1995 3 64 1
Jimmy Smith 2000 3 62 12
Tim Brown 1997 3 58 8
Rod Smith 2001 3 56 4
Irving Fryar 1995 3 49 21
Cris Carter 1997 3 47 4
Keyshawn Johnson 1998 3 46 5
Peerless Price 2002 3 46
Marty Booker 2002 3 46
Much has been made of the abundance of impressive early-season performances by rookie WRs this year (this Jason Wood article of a couple weeks ago discusses the issue nicely, for instance). It has also not gone unnoticed that the rookie RBs have been terrible. Here is a table showing the total number of fantasy points scored by all rookie RBs in the first three weeks of each season since 1995 (along with the top 5 rookie RBs through three weeks):
Total
Year FPT Top 5
-----------------------------------------
2002 131
Clinton Portis 21
T.J. Duckett 13
Jonathan Wells 13
Marcel Shipp 13
Najeh Davenport 12
2001 221
LaDainian Tomlinson 66
Correll Buckhalter 27
Travis Henry 23
Michael Bennett 21
Kevan Barlow 21
2000 162
Mike Anderson 45
Ron Dayne 25
Frank Moreau 13
Thomas Jones 13
Travis Prentice 12
1999 119
Edgerrin James 45
Ricky Williams 12
J.J. Johnson 11
Rob Konrad 10
Sedrick Irvin 10
1998 145
Robert Edwards 42
Fred Taylor 31
Curtis Enis 22
Ahman Green 20
Jon Ritchie 8
1997 177
Tiki Barber 45
Warrick Dunn 41
Jay Graham 21
Antowain Smith 17
Troy Davis 13
1996 218
Karim Abdul-Jabbar 58
Eddie George 33
Stanley Pritchett 22
Ki-Jana Carter 20
Lawrence Phillips 18
1995 187
Terrell Davis 53
Rashaan Salaam 31
Curtis Martin 27
Napoleon Kaufman 21
Rodney Thomas 19
A couple of things to notice here. First, look at the top rookie (through three weeks) of each season and 2002 sticks out like a sore thumb. This year's top rookie has 21 fantasy points. All the other years have at least one back over 40. Second, note that the total rookie production was slightly lower in 1999 than it has been in 2002, but there were fewer games being played then. On a per-game basis, I'm not sure which year is worse.
Here is a brief snapshot of the WR numbers, to see just how anomalous this rookie class has been so far:
1st 3 weeks
tot fant pts
Year by rook WRs
--------------------
2002 216
2001 103
2000 199
1999 114
1998 95
1997 35
1996 107
1995 134
The 2000 crop was actually quite close to this group through three weeks. They (the 2000 crop) did not turn out well, for whatever that's worth.
Also for what it's worth, I do not in any way believe that this season of great rookie WR production and terrible rookie RB production is the beginning of a trend. Time will tell, of course, but good rookie RBs have existed since the dawn of time. And production by rookie WRs has been steadily declining for the last three decades. I'll need to see a lot more than one year's worth of data to believe that this is anything but a blip.
I'm always hesitant to proclaim players to be "undervalued" or "overvalued" because value, to steal a phrase, is in the eye of the beholder. And I have no idea what your league's beholders of Derrick Mason or Ike Hilliard have to say about it. But I do believe this: at this point in the year, players with a lot of yards and few TDs are likely to be undervalued.
For instance, Derrick Mason currently sits as the #31 WR in fantasyland. But in terms of total yardage, he ranks 10th. That differential of 21 is the highest such differential among WRS and, to me, it means that Mason might represent good value right now. The ability to rack up yards is a much more sustainable skill than the ability to score TDs, which tend to come and go more sporadically. If your league's Mason owner is getting antsy because his 5th-round pick is only WR 31 right now, see if you can pry Mason from him. The TDs will come.
With that, here are lists of the WRs and RBs with the biggest differential between their yardage rank and their overall rank. There's a good chance that some of these guys are undervalued by some of the folks in your league right now.
--ranks--
Name YD FPT Differential
------------------------------------------------
Derrick Mason 10 31 21
Darrell Jackson 15 36 21
Ike Hilliard 20 40 20
Antonio Bryant 25 42 17
Isaac Bruce 30 47 17
Keyshawn Johnson 29 46 17
Torry Holt 4 17 13
Amani Toomer 3 14 11
Terry Glenn 24 32 8
Rod Gardner 21 29 8
Antonio Freeman 22 30 8
--ranks--
Name YD FPT Differential
------------------------------------------------
Najeh Davenport 39 49 10
Curtis Martin 38 48 10
Ahman Green 8 17 9
Corey Dillon 12 20 8
James Allen 30 38 8
Michael Pittman 18 26 8
Jonathan Wells 36 44 8
T.J. Duckett 35 43 8
http://www.footballguys.com/drinennotebook4.cfm
Drinen's Notebook: Thursday, September 26, 2002
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'll open with a table of contents, so you can skip to whatever you consider the good stuff (if any):
Reader mail: a reader wrote in with some interesting thoughts on last week's column, so I'll discuss them here.
Same team QB-RB and RB-WR pairs: I promised last week to take a look at this.
Random notebook entries: just some quick thoughts about the season's first three weeks.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In last week's column, I discussed the advisability of having two starting WRs from the same NFL team. I concluded that doing so does not introduce any extra risk; quite the opposite, in fact.
A reader named Joseph Lorenc wrote in, however, with a thought that's worth mentioning. While my study showed that if two receivers from the same NFL team did well, then using them as a tandem on your fantasy team is not risky. But there may be a risk on a higher level. Namely, the chances of them failing to perform well might be tied together.
Here's a study that would determine how much (if any) of a concern this is:
Look at all teams who had a pair of top 20 WRs in the preseason consensus rankings.
Track each of the two receivers through the season and give him a "+" if he outperforms expectations and a "-" if he underperforms.
If we see significantly more "++" and "--" pairs than we see "+-" and "-+" pairs, then that would say that there is risk, on the season level, in drafting a same-team pair.
Frankly, I have no idea how the above study would turn out. But I'd be interested to find out. I'll add it to the growing list of studies I'd like to do, but can't because I don't have enough data on preseason rankings. Fortunately, people like Michael Zangrilli and others are working to change this.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Anyway, last week I also promised to check on QB-RB pairs and RB-WR pairs, and that's what I'll do now.
I used the same methodology I used last week, with one minor exception (which you can read about on the data page), so I won't bore you with details. Here's what I found:
Since 1995, there have been 35 instances where a team's top RB and top WR both played 16 games and both finished in the top 20 at their positions. In 32 of those 35 cases, the same-team RB-WR pair was a more consistent game-to-game than the majority of their comparable pairs. In most cases, they were overwhelmingly more consistent.
Since 1995, there have been 22 instances where a team's QB has been in the top 10 and their top RB has been in the top 20 (again, with both playing 16 games). In 18 of the 22 cases, the same-team RB-QB pair was more consistent than the majority of their comparable pairs.
Here are the data sets: [RB-WR] [QB-RB]
These two results are stronger than the WR-WR results from last week, and I also believe they're more applicable. Same-team pairs of top-20 WRs are not rare, but they're not that common. Elite same-team QB-RB pairs and RB-WR pairs are all over the place. Further, I think that, since QB-RB pairs and RB-WR pairs encompass both the passing and running games of a team, as opposed to WR-WR pairs (which only involve one aspect of the offense), they are less risky in the sense we talked about in the opening paragraphs. For example, if the coaching staff decides to go more conservative, that hurts your WR, but helps your RB. If a team's top WR gets injured, that may hurt your QB, but it may help your RB (more red-zone looks, or more receptions).
So, while I've backtracked a little bit on the strong statements I made last week about WR-WR pairs, I'm going to make those same strong statements about QB-RB and WR-RB pairs: do not worry at all about having a same-NFL-team QB-RB or WR-RB pair. If anything, they will make your team more, not less, consistent.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Random Notebook Entries
You knew Donovan McNabb was having a good year, but did you know he has the highest first-three-week fantasy point total since 1995 (and possibly for awhile before that, but my game-by-game data only goes back to 95)? Here are the top 10:
First 3 Wks End-of-season
Name Year G FPT rank
----------------------------------------------------------
Donovan McNabb 2002 3 97
Steve Young 1995 3 95 10
Tom Brady 2002 3 87
Drew Bledsoe 1997 3 86 5
Brett Favre 1996 3 84 1
Donovan McNabb 2001 3 83 5
Brian Griese 2000 3 81 11
Kurt Warner 2001 3 78 2
Brett Favre 2002 3 74
Neil O'Donnell 1997 3 74 16
Priest Holmes is having a similarly "historic" start, but no WR is doing anything special at this point:
First 3 Wks End-of-season
Name Year G FPT rank
----------------------------------------------------------
Emmitt Smith 1995 3 89 1
Marshall Faulk 2000 3 89 1
Priest Holmes 2002 3 87
Stephen Davis 1999 3 82 4
Ricky Williams 2002 3 71
Marshall Faulk 2001 3 70 1
Terrell Davis 1998 3 68 1
Tiki Barber 2000 3 67 13
LaDainian Tomlinson 2001 3 66 7
Lamar Smith 2002 3 62
First 3 Wks End-of-season
Name Year G FPT rank
----------------------------------------------------------
Marvin Harrison 1999 3 78 1
Jerry Rice 1995 3 64 1
Jimmy Smith 2000 3 62 12
Tim Brown 1997 3 58 8
Rod Smith 2001 3 56 4
Irving Fryar 1995 3 49 21
Cris Carter 1997 3 47 4
Keyshawn Johnson 1998 3 46 5
Peerless Price 2002 3 46
Marty Booker 2002 3 46
Much has been made of the abundance of impressive early-season performances by rookie WRs this year (this Jason Wood article of a couple weeks ago discusses the issue nicely, for instance). It has also not gone unnoticed that the rookie RBs have been terrible. Here is a table showing the total number of fantasy points scored by all rookie RBs in the first three weeks of each season since 1995 (along with the top 5 rookie RBs through three weeks):
Total
Year FPT Top 5
-----------------------------------------
2002 131
Clinton Portis 21
T.J. Duckett 13
Jonathan Wells 13
Marcel Shipp 13
Najeh Davenport 12
2001 221
LaDainian Tomlinson 66
Correll Buckhalter 27
Travis Henry 23
Michael Bennett 21
Kevan Barlow 21
2000 162
Mike Anderson 45
Ron Dayne 25
Frank Moreau 13
Thomas Jones 13
Travis Prentice 12
1999 119
Edgerrin James 45
Ricky Williams 12
J.J. Johnson 11
Rob Konrad 10
Sedrick Irvin 10
1998 145
Robert Edwards 42
Fred Taylor 31
Curtis Enis 22
Ahman Green 20
Jon Ritchie 8
1997 177
Tiki Barber 45
Warrick Dunn 41
Jay Graham 21
Antowain Smith 17
Troy Davis 13
1996 218
Karim Abdul-Jabbar 58
Eddie George 33
Stanley Pritchett 22
Ki-Jana Carter 20
Lawrence Phillips 18
1995 187
Terrell Davis 53
Rashaan Salaam 31
Curtis Martin 27
Napoleon Kaufman 21
Rodney Thomas 19
A couple of things to notice here. First, look at the top rookie (through three weeks) of each season and 2002 sticks out like a sore thumb. This year's top rookie has 21 fantasy points. All the other years have at least one back over 40. Second, note that the total rookie production was slightly lower in 1999 than it has been in 2002, but there were fewer games being played then. On a per-game basis, I'm not sure which year is worse.
Here is a brief snapshot of the WR numbers, to see just how anomalous this rookie class has been so far:
1st 3 weeks
tot fant pts
Year by rook WRs
--------------------
2002 216
2001 103
2000 199
1999 114
1998 95
1997 35
1996 107
1995 134
The 2000 crop was actually quite close to this group through three weeks. They (the 2000 crop) did not turn out well, for whatever that's worth.
Also for what it's worth, I do not in any way believe that this season of great rookie WR production and terrible rookie RB production is the beginning of a trend. Time will tell, of course, but good rookie RBs have existed since the dawn of time. And production by rookie WRs has been steadily declining for the last three decades. I'll need to see a lot more than one year's worth of data to believe that this is anything but a blip.
I'm always hesitant to proclaim players to be "undervalued" or "overvalued" because value, to steal a phrase, is in the eye of the beholder. And I have no idea what your league's beholders of Derrick Mason or Ike Hilliard have to say about it. But I do believe this: at this point in the year, players with a lot of yards and few TDs are likely to be undervalued.
For instance, Derrick Mason currently sits as the #31 WR in fantasyland. But in terms of total yardage, he ranks 10th. That differential of 21 is the highest such differential among WRS and, to me, it means that Mason might represent good value right now. The ability to rack up yards is a much more sustainable skill than the ability to score TDs, which tend to come and go more sporadically. If your league's Mason owner is getting antsy because his 5th-round pick is only WR 31 right now, see if you can pry Mason from him. The TDs will come.
With that, here are lists of the WRs and RBs with the biggest differential between their yardage rank and their overall rank. There's a good chance that some of these guys are undervalued by some of the folks in your league right now.
--ranks--
Name YD FPT Differential
------------------------------------------------
Derrick Mason 10 31 21
Darrell Jackson 15 36 21
Ike Hilliard 20 40 20
Antonio Bryant 25 42 17
Isaac Bruce 30 47 17
Keyshawn Johnson 29 46 17
Torry Holt 4 17 13
Amani Toomer 3 14 11
Terry Glenn 24 32 8
Rod Gardner 21 29 8
Antonio Freeman 22 30 8
--ranks--
Name YD FPT Differential
------------------------------------------------
Najeh Davenport 39 49 10
Curtis Martin 38 48 10
Ahman Green 8 17 9
Corey Dillon 12 20 8
James Allen 30 38 8
Michael Pittman 18 26 8
Jonathan Wells 36 44 8
T.J. Duckett 35 43 8
wannabee
Footballguy
Another Drinen gem was an article trying to find the predictability of RBs/WRs/QBs using data from previous year and using data from week one -> to predict weeks 2-17.
http://www.footballguys.com/drinennotebook2.cfm
When the dust settles on the first Sunday of the NFL year, almost all of us are disappointed by the performance of at least one of the players we drafted. Disappointment can turn to panic, and panic can cause us to make decisions we might later regret.
This column is an effort to step back, count to ten, and take an objective and unemotional look at what week one performance generally means in the grand scheme of things. So step away from the ledge, at least for long enough to read this. There may still be hope.
Running Backs
I took a look at all running backs from 1995-2001 who fit the following profile:
1. top 20 RB from the previous year;
2. got at least one carry in week one;
That amounted to 127 running backs. I looked at each of their week one performances and sorted them from best (Emmitt Smith 1995) to worst (Marcus Allen 1997) in terms of fantasy points. Then I cut the list in half. The guys at the top of the list were said to have had a "good week one" and the guys at the bottom were labelled as "bad week one."
So what happened to these two groups for the rest of the year?
----- fantasy points ---
Prev yr Wk 1 Wk 2-17
----------------------------------------------------------
Avg RB who had "good week one" 214 17 184
Avg RB who had "bad week one" 204 5 137
The first column (previous year fantasy points) is there to demonstrate that the two groups had been roughly comparable the previous year, with the "good week one" group being just a shade better. The second column tells you the obvious: that the "good week one" group did better in week one. But the interesting thing is that it didn't stop there. The "good week one" group, on average, went on to outscore the "bad week one" backs by 47 points over the rest of the season.
According to the raw data, a bad start by your star RB just might be something to be concerned about.
A glance through the complete data set, though, should ease your mind a bit. In particular, you'll notice that a lot of the "bad week one" backs who went on to bomb for the rest of the year were marginal backs for whom the dropoff was actually quite predictable. Even though Rodney Thomas had a pretty good season in 1996, for example, everyone knew that he didn't have a job in 1997. The fact that he followed up his unproductive week one with an unproductive season tells us nothing about what to expect from Corey Dillon this year. And the bottom of the list seems to be populated with similar stories: Derrick Loville, Ironhead Heyward, Lewis Tillman, etc.
I'm definitely abandoning my promise to be objective, and possibly using too much hindsight, but my impression is that, even though their numbers were similar in the previous year, the "good week one" backs were actually significantly better than the "bad week one" backs. And I'd bet that that explains the difference in the week 2-17 performances of the two groups. My general impression is that most of the backs who had bad week ones did about as well as they were expected to do (barring inury).
But don't take my word for it. Browse the data set yourself and draw your own conclusions.
Wide Receivers
This is a much easier case. It's clear that an established WR's week one perforance should not affect your opinion of him. Using the same methodology, we have the following:
----- fantasy points ---
Prev yr Wk 1 Wk 2-17
----------------------------------------------------------
Avg WR who had "good week one" 182 16 136
Avg WR who had "bad week one" 170 4 124
The "good week one" WRs were, on average, 12 points better than the "bad week one" WRs in the previous year, and they were 12 points better over the rest of the test year.
So my default opinion is that, for WRs, a bad week one is absolutely no cause for concern. I may override the default in special cases, but I'd make sure I had a very compelling reason to downgrade a WR after week one.
Just to highlight one quick example, consider the Big 3 [TM] receivers: Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison and Randy Moss. All three had uninspiring openers last week. But note that they are, as a group, ahead of where they were at this time a year ago.
Big 3 combined numbers in week 1:
Year REC YD TD fantasy points
-------------------------------------------------
2001 12 156 0 16
2002 14 133 2 25
Quarterbacks
With QBs, I only considered those who were top 10 the previous year, rather than the top 20. Other than that, the methodology was the same for QBs as it was for RBs and WRs.
----- fantasy points ---
Prev yr Wk 1 Wk 2-17
----------------------------------------------------------
Avg QB who had "good week one" 298 24 231
Avg QB who had "bad week one" 285 10 162
This looks like the RB data, but is more extreme. The previous year, the two groups were, at least statistically, very comparable. Their post-week-one performance though, differed by an average of 69 points. That's a serious chunk.
Can I wave my hands and explain this away like I did with the RBs? I'm not so sure. It's far from universal, but a quick pass through the list indicates to me that a bad week one has foreshadowed an unexpectedly bad season in a lot of cases. Again, I'll invite you to examine the data and draw your own conclusions, but I am not going to offer any reassuring words to Jeff Garcia owners (a group to which I belong, by the way).
One last thing
I can't resist asking one last question:
If you took all these piles of data to a numbers-whiz who knew absolutely nothing about football (many people fitting that exact description reside in offices right down the hall from mine), what would he or she conclude about the importance of week one? In particular, there are specific statistical tests that can be run to answer questions like "is week one performance a significant indicator of week 2-17 performance?" and "is week one performance a better indicator than last year's performance?"
Those tests, obviously, are blind to things like 40 times and injuries on the offensive line. Thus, they fail to take into account lots of relevant factors. On the other hand, they fail to include the biases that we all bring to whatever we're trying to analyze. And yes, we all do bring biases, some of which we're aware of and some of which we're not. I don't pretend that some sophisticated statistical tests are going to answer anything definitively. They simply provide one more viewpoint.
That said, here is what the number-savvy footballaphobe would tell you about the data.
For running backs, previous year fantasy points and week one fantasy points are both unquestionably useful in predicting week 2-17 points. Roughly, they are equally useful.
For wide receivers, previous year points are useful in predicting week 2-17 points. But, if you know last season's points, then week one points are not useful at all in predicting week 2-17 points.
For quarterbacks, week one fantasy points are useful in predicting week 2-17 points. But, if you know week one points, incorporating last season's points does nothing to improve your predictions of week 2-17 points.
It's interesting that you get three very different answers for the three positions.
http://www.footballguys.com/drinennotebook2.cfm
When the dust settles on the first Sunday of the NFL year, almost all of us are disappointed by the performance of at least one of the players we drafted. Disappointment can turn to panic, and panic can cause us to make decisions we might later regret.
This column is an effort to step back, count to ten, and take an objective and unemotional look at what week one performance generally means in the grand scheme of things. So step away from the ledge, at least for long enough to read this. There may still be hope.
Running Backs
I took a look at all running backs from 1995-2001 who fit the following profile:
1. top 20 RB from the previous year;
2. got at least one carry in week one;
That amounted to 127 running backs. I looked at each of their week one performances and sorted them from best (Emmitt Smith 1995) to worst (Marcus Allen 1997) in terms of fantasy points. Then I cut the list in half. The guys at the top of the list were said to have had a "good week one" and the guys at the bottom were labelled as "bad week one."
So what happened to these two groups for the rest of the year?
----- fantasy points ---
Prev yr Wk 1 Wk 2-17
----------------------------------------------------------
Avg RB who had "good week one" 214 17 184
Avg RB who had "bad week one" 204 5 137
The first column (previous year fantasy points) is there to demonstrate that the two groups had been roughly comparable the previous year, with the "good week one" group being just a shade better. The second column tells you the obvious: that the "good week one" group did better in week one. But the interesting thing is that it didn't stop there. The "good week one" group, on average, went on to outscore the "bad week one" backs by 47 points over the rest of the season.
According to the raw data, a bad start by your star RB just might be something to be concerned about.
A glance through the complete data set, though, should ease your mind a bit. In particular, you'll notice that a lot of the "bad week one" backs who went on to bomb for the rest of the year were marginal backs for whom the dropoff was actually quite predictable. Even though Rodney Thomas had a pretty good season in 1996, for example, everyone knew that he didn't have a job in 1997. The fact that he followed up his unproductive week one with an unproductive season tells us nothing about what to expect from Corey Dillon this year. And the bottom of the list seems to be populated with similar stories: Derrick Loville, Ironhead Heyward, Lewis Tillman, etc.
I'm definitely abandoning my promise to be objective, and possibly using too much hindsight, but my impression is that, even though their numbers were similar in the previous year, the "good week one" backs were actually significantly better than the "bad week one" backs. And I'd bet that that explains the difference in the week 2-17 performances of the two groups. My general impression is that most of the backs who had bad week ones did about as well as they were expected to do (barring inury).
But don't take my word for it. Browse the data set yourself and draw your own conclusions.
Wide Receivers
This is a much easier case. It's clear that an established WR's week one perforance should not affect your opinion of him. Using the same methodology, we have the following:
----- fantasy points ---
Prev yr Wk 1 Wk 2-17
----------------------------------------------------------
Avg WR who had "good week one" 182 16 136
Avg WR who had "bad week one" 170 4 124
The "good week one" WRs were, on average, 12 points better than the "bad week one" WRs in the previous year, and they were 12 points better over the rest of the test year.
So my default opinion is that, for WRs, a bad week one is absolutely no cause for concern. I may override the default in special cases, but I'd make sure I had a very compelling reason to downgrade a WR after week one.
Just to highlight one quick example, consider the Big 3 [TM] receivers: Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison and Randy Moss. All three had uninspiring openers last week. But note that they are, as a group, ahead of where they were at this time a year ago.
Big 3 combined numbers in week 1:
Year REC YD TD fantasy points
-------------------------------------------------
2001 12 156 0 16
2002 14 133 2 25
Quarterbacks
With QBs, I only considered those who were top 10 the previous year, rather than the top 20. Other than that, the methodology was the same for QBs as it was for RBs and WRs.
----- fantasy points ---
Prev yr Wk 1 Wk 2-17
----------------------------------------------------------
Avg QB who had "good week one" 298 24 231
Avg QB who had "bad week one" 285 10 162
This looks like the RB data, but is more extreme. The previous year, the two groups were, at least statistically, very comparable. Their post-week-one performance though, differed by an average of 69 points. That's a serious chunk.
Can I wave my hands and explain this away like I did with the RBs? I'm not so sure. It's far from universal, but a quick pass through the list indicates to me that a bad week one has foreshadowed an unexpectedly bad season in a lot of cases. Again, I'll invite you to examine the data and draw your own conclusions, but I am not going to offer any reassuring words to Jeff Garcia owners (a group to which I belong, by the way).
One last thing
I can't resist asking one last question:
If you took all these piles of data to a numbers-whiz who knew absolutely nothing about football (many people fitting that exact description reside in offices right down the hall from mine), what would he or she conclude about the importance of week one? In particular, there are specific statistical tests that can be run to answer questions like "is week one performance a significant indicator of week 2-17 performance?" and "is week one performance a better indicator than last year's performance?"
Those tests, obviously, are blind to things like 40 times and injuries on the offensive line. Thus, they fail to take into account lots of relevant factors. On the other hand, they fail to include the biases that we all bring to whatever we're trying to analyze. And yes, we all do bring biases, some of which we're aware of and some of which we're not. I don't pretend that some sophisticated statistical tests are going to answer anything definitively. They simply provide one more viewpoint.
That said, here is what the number-savvy footballaphobe would tell you about the data.
For running backs, previous year fantasy points and week one fantasy points are both unquestionably useful in predicting week 2-17 points. Roughly, they are equally useful.
For wide receivers, previous year points are useful in predicting week 2-17 points. But, if you know last season's points, then week one points are not useful at all in predicting week 2-17 points.
For quarterbacks, week one fantasy points are useful in predicting week 2-17 points. But, if you know week one points, incorporating last season's points does nothing to improve your predictions of week 2-17 points.
It's interesting that you get three very different answers for the three positions.
wannabee
Footballguy
Doug Drinen also has an article here at footballguys.com that I would like to point out:
http://www.footballguys.com/06drinen-whothrows.php
This article is very enlightening. Some examples of what to look for are the Redskins and the distribution of WR1 (Moss) and his large percentage of passes versus all other WRs (I apologize for the formatting - check out the link).
Who throws it where?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted 6/16 by Doug Drinen, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
I do my projections from the top down. First I project how many offensive plays each team is going to run. Then I project what percentage of them will be rushes and passes. Concentrating on the passing side of the equation for now, the next thing I do is project the team's passing yards per attempt. Multiply that by the projected attempts and I've got a projection for the team's passing yards.
Then I start divvying up the yards among the pass catchers on the team. To give me a rough estimate, I look at the percentage of the team's passing yards that have gone to wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs for the past few years. That's what this article is: the percentage of each team's passing yards that have gone to the various positions for the last three years.
After each team's data, I've offered a few brief thoughts on how the percentages might break down this season. As we go through it, keep in mind that an increase or decrease in percentage does not necessarily imply an increase or decrease in raw numbers. If the size of the pie grows, a particular receiver might see his numbers increase even though his share of the pie decreased.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WR TE RB
TM YR 1 2 3 Tot 1 2 Tot 1 2 Tot
WAS 2003 36.8 18.3 11.0 72.8 2.7 1.5 5.6 5.7 5.4 21.6
2004 33.1 22.6 7.1 71.4 10.9 2.4 16.7 8.2 3.8 11.9
2005 44.3 6.5 5.8 60.1 23.1 3.9 30.4 6.5 2.3 9.5
I would be willing to bet that the Redskins' WR1/WR2 gap last season was the biggest in history. Enter Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El to narrow that gap. The running back percentage can't get any lower, so whatever percentages Lloyd and Randle El get will come from Santana Moss or Chris Cooley. The good news for Moss and Cooley is that, when their percentages decrease, they can still put up nice numbers because there is plenty of room for growth in the overall production of the passing game.
http://www.footballguys.com/06drinen-whothrows.php
This article is very enlightening. Some examples of what to look for are the Redskins and the distribution of WR1 (Moss) and his large percentage of passes versus all other WRs (I apologize for the formatting - check out the link).
Who throws it where?
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Posted 6/16 by Doug Drinen, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
I do my projections from the top down. First I project how many offensive plays each team is going to run. Then I project what percentage of them will be rushes and passes. Concentrating on the passing side of the equation for now, the next thing I do is project the team's passing yards per attempt. Multiply that by the projected attempts and I've got a projection for the team's passing yards.
Then I start divvying up the yards among the pass catchers on the team. To give me a rough estimate, I look at the percentage of the team's passing yards that have gone to wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs for the past few years. That's what this article is: the percentage of each team's passing yards that have gone to the various positions for the last three years.
After each team's data, I've offered a few brief thoughts on how the percentages might break down this season. As we go through it, keep in mind that an increase or decrease in percentage does not necessarily imply an increase or decrease in raw numbers. If the size of the pie grows, a particular receiver might see his numbers increase even though his share of the pie decreased.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WR TE RB
TM YR 1 2 3 Tot 1 2 Tot 1 2 Tot
WAS 2003 36.8 18.3 11.0 72.8 2.7 1.5 5.6 5.7 5.4 21.6
2004 33.1 22.6 7.1 71.4 10.9 2.4 16.7 8.2 3.8 11.9
2005 44.3 6.5 5.8 60.1 23.1 3.9 30.4 6.5 2.3 9.5
I would be willing to bet that the Redskins' WR1/WR2 gap last season was the biggest in history. Enter Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El to narrow that gap. The running back percentage can't get any lower, so whatever percentages Lloyd and Randle El get will come from Santana Moss or Chris Cooley. The good news for Moss and Cooley is that, when their percentages decrease, they can still put up nice numbers because there is plenty of room for growth in the overall production of the passing game.
wannabee
Footballguy
Also, for those of you always looking for info and posts on dynasty, rookie staff member, Jeff Pasquino, put together a master thread full of links: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=232046
This is a great tool.
This is a great tool.
wannabee
Footballguy
As referenced in a Shark Pool thread, I love Jake Plummer in redraft leagues. His ADP is QB13, and the 90th overall player taken (plus he is actually dropping).
Last year (2005), Plummer finished just a little over 1 point per game (16.27 ppg)less than the 4th best QB, Eli Manning (17.57). Also, his owners were rewarded by only being 3.60 ppg less than the best QB, Palmer. Plus, Peyton Manning was only a little over 2 ppg (2.10 ppg) better than Plummer.
The reason I say his owners were rewarded is because the Plummer owner was able to get a much better player (RB) in round 1 than the Peyton owner was in round 8.
Now to 2006. Why has Plummer's chances inproved?
a. The departure of Mike Anderson. Most around this site think that Dayne will be able to step in and maintain the same level of production that Anderson had. I do not think so. I think the lack of a legit running game will make Plummer pass more often to keep the Broncos in games.
b. The addition of Javon Walker. I do not expect the same numbers that Walker put up in GB in 2006. One reason why is that it might take Walker a couple of games to fully get into stride. Another reason is that the Packers throw the ball a ton more than do the Broncos. In Walker's big season (2004), Favre threw the ball 540 times. And, last year, Plummer threw it only 456 times. Do not underestimate the difference of 84 pass attempts. That averages out to a little over 5 pass attemps per game difference. This should matriculate into 3 catches a game for the team. Walker averaged 15 yds per catch. If he caught one of those balls at his average, this means that, imo, his upside in Denver is one catch, and 15 yards per game less than it was in GB. Keep this in mind. I see Driver and Smith being the same and interchangeable. But, for the purposes of Plummer, Walker is a HUGE upgrade over Lelie. I think we all minimize how difficult it must have been for Plummer to have so weak of passing options last year. His WR1 is a star in Rod Smith. But, his WR2 in Lelie and TE in Putzier were not huge threats that the defense had to respect. The addition of Walker and the drafting of Scheffler help a ton.
Conclusion:
I expect Plummer to finish the 2006 season as a top 8 QB. I cannot imagine Plummer being pulled for Cutler unless the Broncos either clinch or are eliminated early form the playoff hunt. A QB like Plummer allows a redraft owner the ability to stock up on Rb and WR, even Gates, and still get a top QB.
Last year (2005), Plummer finished just a little over 1 point per game (16.27 ppg)less than the 4th best QB, Eli Manning (17.57). Also, his owners were rewarded by only being 3.60 ppg less than the best QB, Palmer. Plus, Peyton Manning was only a little over 2 ppg (2.10 ppg) better than Plummer.
The reason I say his owners were rewarded is because the Plummer owner was able to get a much better player (RB) in round 1 than the Peyton owner was in round 8.
Now to 2006. Why has Plummer's chances inproved?
a. The departure of Mike Anderson. Most around this site think that Dayne will be able to step in and maintain the same level of production that Anderson had. I do not think so. I think the lack of a legit running game will make Plummer pass more often to keep the Broncos in games.
b. The addition of Javon Walker. I do not expect the same numbers that Walker put up in GB in 2006. One reason why is that it might take Walker a couple of games to fully get into stride. Another reason is that the Packers throw the ball a ton more than do the Broncos. In Walker's big season (2004), Favre threw the ball 540 times. And, last year, Plummer threw it only 456 times. Do not underestimate the difference of 84 pass attempts. That averages out to a little over 5 pass attemps per game difference. This should matriculate into 3 catches a game for the team. Walker averaged 15 yds per catch. If he caught one of those balls at his average, this means that, imo, his upside in Denver is one catch, and 15 yards per game less than it was in GB. Keep this in mind. I see Driver and Smith being the same and interchangeable. But, for the purposes of Plummer, Walker is a HUGE upgrade over Lelie. I think we all minimize how difficult it must have been for Plummer to have so weak of passing options last year. His WR1 is a star in Rod Smith. But, his WR2 in Lelie and TE in Putzier were not huge threats that the defense had to respect. The addition of Walker and the drafting of Scheffler help a ton.
Conclusion:
I expect Plummer to finish the 2006 season as a top 8 QB. I cannot imagine Plummer being pulled for Cutler unless the Broncos either clinch or are eliminated early form the playoff hunt. A QB like Plummer allows a redraft owner the ability to stock up on Rb and WR, even Gates, and still get a top QB.
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wannabee
Footballguy
The next Buy Low is one that my GB, Jeff Pasquino, and I agree on. I play in a few large leagues (14-16 teams). In those, when TE is required, Zach Hilton is a definite startable TE, with a lot of upside.
For redrafts, Hilton's ADP is TE21 and the 194th player taken overall. That is a huge steal. Those of you that did not see the Saints play in the last part of 2005, Hilton is HUGE. He is 6'8", 268 lbs from North Carolina.
The reason I, and others, are high on Hilton is the way he finished the 2005 season. In the final 7 games of the season, Hilton averaged over 4 catches per game for over 51 yds per game and added one TD.
Normally a QB change would make the coming year difficult to predict. But, one QB that knows how to get the TE the ball is Drew Brees.
Those 4+ catches and 50+ yards per game would put Hilton in the top 8 or 9 TEs for fantasy leagues. I would like to see more redzone looks for Hilton, but the Saint passing offense was less than stellar last year. I do think he will get 2-3 TDs in 2006.
Conclusion:
Zach Hilton is a huge "buy low" for redraft and dynasty. He would be a great TE1 in large leagues, drafted late, or a great TE2 in 12 team leagues. His upside is there, with little risk where he is drafted.
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/396820/gamelogs/2005
For redrafts, Hilton's ADP is TE21 and the 194th player taken overall. That is a huge steal. Those of you that did not see the Saints play in the last part of 2005, Hilton is HUGE. He is 6'8", 268 lbs from North Carolina.
The reason I, and others, are high on Hilton is the way he finished the 2005 season. In the final 7 games of the season, Hilton averaged over 4 catches per game for over 51 yds per game and added one TD.
Normally a QB change would make the coming year difficult to predict. But, one QB that knows how to get the TE the ball is Drew Brees.
Those 4+ catches and 50+ yards per game would put Hilton in the top 8 or 9 TEs for fantasy leagues. I would like to see more redzone looks for Hilton, but the Saint passing offense was less than stellar last year. I do think he will get 2-3 TDs in 2006.
Conclusion:
Zach Hilton is a huge "buy low" for redraft and dynasty. He would be a great TE1 in large leagues, drafted late, or a great TE2 in 12 team leagues. His upside is there, with little risk where he is drafted.
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/396820/gamelogs/2005
wannabee
Footballguy
The next Buy Low is another sleeper pick. Samie Parker finished 2005 strong. In weeks 12 through 16, in PPR leagues, Parker had a points per game average of 12.78. In comparison, Reggie Wayne averaged ppg of 12.10 for that stretch of games.
Currently, in redrafts, Parker has an ADP of WR63 and player 205 overall. That means that in a 12 team draft, Parker is going in the 18th round.
A little info on Parker. He turned 24 years old in March and is entering his 3rd year in the NFL from Oregon.
Here is Parker's game logs from last year: http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/493025/gamelogs/2005
Also, here are his targets from 2005 (notice how he was targeted more than Kennison during the 5 game stretch listed above):
http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-kan-2.php
Conclusion:
If you are late in your dynasty or redraft draft, and are looking for WR options, consider Samie Parker, and his upside. That ppg of 12.78 would put Parker in the top 25 of WRs in PPR leagues.
Currently, in redrafts, Parker has an ADP of WR63 and player 205 overall. That means that in a 12 team draft, Parker is going in the 18th round.
A little info on Parker. He turned 24 years old in March and is entering his 3rd year in the NFL from Oregon.
Here is Parker's game logs from last year: http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/493025/gamelogs/2005
Also, here are his targets from 2005 (notice how he was targeted more than Kennison during the 5 game stretch listed above):
http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-kan-2.php
Conclusion:
If you are late in your dynasty or redraft draft, and are looking for WR options, consider Samie Parker, and his upside. That ppg of 12.78 would put Parker in the top 25 of WRs in PPR leagues.
wannabee
Footballguy
One WR that seems to slip in dynasty drafts is Amani Toomer. He went in the late 18th round of a recent initial dynasty draft full of strong owners from this board. Right now, Toomer's redraft ADP is WR55 and the 174th player overall taken - and has slipped evelen spots in the ADP. Think about that. A WR who is only 31 years old (turning 32 in Sept) who put up good numbers ... around WR30 last year depending on scoring system, going that late.
Toomer had 7 games with five or more receptions. He had seven TDs. Here is the game logs: http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/1262/gamelogs/2005
I will add that I think, for the value, Toomer is a much better player than Plaxico Burress. Burress costs a 4th round pick and Toomer a 18th rounder. Plax did outscore Toomer by 2.75 ppg last year in PPR leagues. But, Plax is considered a borderline WR1/WR2, while Toomer is a GREAT WR4.
Toomer even had over 100 targets again in 2005. I expect him to have another three or four years left in his career. Eli is improving and should help stabilize those numbers.
Conclusion:
If you are late in your draft, dynasty or redraft, and need a great WR4 (where he is being drafted) at a cheap price, draft Toomer. Last year, he had almost half of his games with atleast 5 catches. That shows me that Eli is looking to him consistently.
Toomer had 7 games with five or more receptions. He had seven TDs. Here is the game logs: http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/1262/gamelogs/2005
I will add that I think, for the value, Toomer is a much better player than Plaxico Burress. Burress costs a 4th round pick and Toomer a 18th rounder. Plax did outscore Toomer by 2.75 ppg last year in PPR leagues. But, Plax is considered a borderline WR1/WR2, while Toomer is a GREAT WR4.
Toomer even had over 100 targets again in 2005. I expect him to have another three or four years left in his career. Eli is improving and should help stabilize those numbers.
Conclusion:
If you are late in your draft, dynasty or redraft, and need a great WR4 (where he is being drafted) at a cheap price, draft Toomer. Last year, he had almost half of his games with atleast 5 catches. That shows me that Eli is looking to him consistently.
Hey wannabee,
I was offered the 1.05 and Corey Dillon for the 1.03. Scoring is pretty much standard PPR.
My team:
QB
Roethlisberger
Philip Rivers
JP Losman
RB
Larry Johnson
Willie Parker
Duce Staley
Ontarrio Smith
WR
Chris Chambers
Hines Ward
Roy Williams
Lee Evans
Chris Henry
Brandon Jones
Charles Rogers
TE
Randy McMichael
Bubba Franks
K
Nugent
Jeff Wilkins
Draft Picks
1.01
1.02
1.03
How do you like this offer? Obviously if I traded the 1.03 I would get Maroney with the 1.02 and then the best player left at 1.05. Let me know what you think. Thanks.
Brad
I was offered the 1.05 and Corey Dillon for the 1.03. Scoring is pretty much standard PPR.
My team:
QB
Roethlisberger
Philip Rivers
JP Losman
RB
Larry Johnson
Willie Parker
Duce Staley
Ontarrio Smith
WR
Chris Chambers
Hines Ward
Roy Williams
Lee Evans
Chris Henry
Brandon Jones
Charles Rogers
TE
Randy McMichael
Bubba Franks
K
Nugent
Jeff Wilkins
Draft Picks
1.01
1.02
1.03
How do you like this offer? Obviously if I traded the 1.03 I would get Maroney with the 1.02 and then the best player left at 1.05. Let me know what you think. Thanks.
Brad
wannabee
Footballguy
Brad, this is a tough one. I like the Dillon/Maroney combo for the ability to have a starter for this year, maybe next. I have heard good things about Dillon this offseason. I have said it more than once that "my people" that are knowledgeable Pats fans (understatemnt) say that Maroney will not play much unless there is a Dillon injury.I think you need to ask yourself a couple of questions:
a. what are my chances of winning it all with this young of a team? If average or a little above, I would not do the deal. Having both Williams and Maroney, plus Bush and LJ, could be huge for the future. But, I can see a solid core of players that could put you in a position to compete this year. I think only you can make that call.
b. how much would Dillon play/start anyway? If you get Dillon, it is probably for only one year and I do not know if it is a league that starts only 2 RBs and you like FWP better.
If you think you could compete for the whole enchilada, and Dillon would start for you, then I think you should do it. If you make this deal, and you are left with Addai at 1.05, I would see what the Rhodes owner would give you. I assume it would be quite a bit.
Good luck. Hope this helps.
wannabee
Footballguy
Thanks, Kook. I do not know how to take it. I will have a few hours tonite to work on football stuff. Any topics you want researched?
If not, I will look at more "buy low" and "sell high" players. My goal, probably unattainable, is to do one "buy low" or "sell high" each day.
Please let me know any feedback you may have. I relly do not have a problem discussing anything anyone disagrees with. And, I am open to a different view.
If not, I will look at more "buy low" and "sell high" players. My goal, probably unattainable, is to do one "buy low" or "sell high" each day.
Please let me know any feedback you may have. I relly do not have a problem discussing anything anyone disagrees with. And, I am open to a different view.
wannabee
Footballguy
The "buy low" for today is Laveranues Coles. He is currently ranked at WR27 per ADP. This is the 84th player overall - the end of the 7th round.
Here are Coles' career stats:
+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Rushing | Receiving |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 2000 nyj | 13 | 2 15 7.5 0 | 22 370 16.8 1 |
| 2001 nyj | 16 | 10 108 10.8 0 | 59 868 14.7 7 |
| 2002 nyj | 16 | 6 39 6.5 0 | 89 1264 14.2 5 |
| 2003 was | 16 | 10 39 3.9 0 | 82 1204 14.7 6 |
| 2004 was | 16 | 3 -3 -1.0 0 | 90 950 10.6 1 |
| 2005 nyj | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 73 845 11.6 5 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| TOTAL | 93 | 31 198 6.4 0 | 415 5501 13.3 25 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/ColeLa00.htm
When I look at those stats, I am reminded of how BAD the Jets QBs were last year. It is shocking Coles did what he did considering the QBing he had to endure in 2005. The Jets used five different QBs, with Brooks Bollinger and Vinny Testaverde seeing the most action.
Other factors hurting Coles' production:
a. Lack of other viable WRs to garner attention. So much has been expected of McCareins. He has disappointed. McCareins has been plagued by the dropsies in a big way. His lack of quality WR play has led teams to double cover Coles. Cotchery and Chrebet were not factors, either.
b. Lack of a viable running game. Although Martin was admirable trying to play through injuries, the running game was nothing special in 2005. When Martin finally ended his season, Houston played decent.
http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-nyj-4.php
Conclusion:
Coles put up four very productive seasons with two different teams. I project Coles to outproduce his ADP of WR27 by quite a bit, especially in PPR leagues. Coles is a steal at this ADP. At that ADP, he is picked about the same as Drew Bennett, Nate Burleson, and Rod Smith.
The Jets have addressed the QB situation by acquiring Patrick Ramsey and drafting Kellen Clemens. Coles is only 28 years old and looks to bounce back to the success he has enjoyed in the past.
Here are Coles' career stats:
+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Rushing | Receiving |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 2000 nyj | 13 | 2 15 7.5 0 | 22 370 16.8 1 |
| 2001 nyj | 16 | 10 108 10.8 0 | 59 868 14.7 7 |
| 2002 nyj | 16 | 6 39 6.5 0 | 89 1264 14.2 5 |
| 2003 was | 16 | 10 39 3.9 0 | 82 1204 14.7 6 |
| 2004 was | 16 | 3 -3 -1.0 0 | 90 950 10.6 1 |
| 2005 nyj | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 73 845 11.6 5 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| TOTAL | 93 | 31 198 6.4 0 | 415 5501 13.3 25 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/ColeLa00.htm
When I look at those stats, I am reminded of how BAD the Jets QBs were last year. It is shocking Coles did what he did considering the QBing he had to endure in 2005. The Jets used five different QBs, with Brooks Bollinger and Vinny Testaverde seeing the most action.
Other factors hurting Coles' production:
a. Lack of other viable WRs to garner attention. So much has been expected of McCareins. He has disappointed. McCareins has been plagued by the dropsies in a big way. His lack of quality WR play has led teams to double cover Coles. Cotchery and Chrebet were not factors, either.
b. Lack of a viable running game. Although Martin was admirable trying to play through injuries, the running game was nothing special in 2005. When Martin finally ended his season, Houston played decent.
http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-nyj-4.php
Conclusion:
Coles put up four very productive seasons with two different teams. I project Coles to outproduce his ADP of WR27 by quite a bit, especially in PPR leagues. Coles is a steal at this ADP. At that ADP, he is picked about the same as Drew Bennett, Nate Burleson, and Rod Smith.
The Jets have addressed the QB situation by acquiring Patrick Ramsey and drafting Kellen Clemens. Coles is only 28 years old and looks to bounce back to the success he has enjoyed in the past.
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wannabee
Footballguy
Today, I will add a "sell high" player. This player has enjoyed several years as a top fantasy player. But, last year was a down year. I am betting that this player will continue the decline of 2005 into 2006. I do think that 2006 will be improved over 2005, just now up to his ADP or perceived value.
The player is Joe Horn. He is rated, through ADP as WR19 and player 57 overall. I think Horn is severely overvalued. He has had a very good career. He came to the NFL from Community College, Itawamba CC in Mississippi to be exact.
Positives:
Horn has put up several years of outstanding production.
Coaching change can only help in the long run
Healthy again
Missed very few games over his career
Negatives:
Loss of a QB (Brooks) who loved him and looked to him as the "go to" guy
New QB (Brees) is coming off of a shoulder injury
Drafting of Bush should mean less targets, thus less production
Horn is now 34 years old and only has a year or two left, at the most
Horn produced lowest numbers of last few years even though he had high targets/game ratio (He had 102 targets in 13 games)
Here are his career stats:
+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Rushing | Receiving |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 1996 kan | 10 | 1 8 8.0 0 | 2 30 15.0 0 |
| 1997 kan | 8 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 2 65 32.5 0 |
| 1998 kan | 16 | 1 0 0.0 0 | 14 198 14.1 1 |
| 1999 kan | 16 | 2 15 7.5 0 | 35 586 16.7 6 |
| 2000 nor | 16 | 6 18 3.0 0 | 94 1340 14.3 8 |
| 2001 nor | 16 | 1 4 4.0 0 | 83 1265 15.2 9 |
| 2002 nor | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 88 1312 14.9 7 |
| 2003 nor | 15 | 2 15 7.5 0 | 78 973 12.5 10 |
| 2004 nor | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 94 1399 14.9 11 |
| 2005 nor | 13 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 49 654 13.3 1 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| TOTAL | 142 | 13 60 4.6 0 | 539 7822 14.5 53 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/HornJo00.htm
Just to give you an idea of where WR19 fits in the ADP, and how overvalued Horn really is, here are the ADP numbers for those around Horn:
44 45 1 WR16 Javon Walker Den/4
46 47 1 WR17 Donald Driver GB/6
48 48 0 WR18 Andre Johnson Hou/5
57 56 -1 WR19 Joe Horn NO/7
58 57 -1 WR20 T.J. Houshmandzadeh Cin/5
60 61 1 WR21 Deion Branch NE/6
62 70 8 WR22 Derrick Mason Bal/7
65 64 -1 WR23 Joey Galloway TB/4
67 72 5 WR24 Lee Evans Buf/8
82 84 2 WR25 Michael Clayton TB/4
83 93 10 WR26 Rod Smith Den/4
Is that as obvious to everyone else as it is to me? OK, how about if we do not just look at WRs, but what players are around (above and below) Horn overall:
52 60 8 RB28 Cedric Benson Chi/7
53 52 -1 TE3 Tony Gonzalez KC/3
54 54 0 RB29 Joseph Addai Ind/6
55 55 0 QB5 Eli Manning NYG/4
56 53 -3 QB6 Donovan McNabb Phi/9
57 56 -1 WR19 Joe Horn NO/7
58 57 -1 WR20 T.J. Houshmandzadeh Cin/5
59 63 4 RB30 Fred Taylor Jac/6
60 61 1 WR21 Deion Branch NE/6
61 62 1 TE4 Todd Heap Bal/7
62 70 8 WR22 Derrick Mason Bal/7
63 58 -5 QB7 Marc Bulger StL/7
Does Horn really belong above: Branch, Heap, or Bulger? Does he really belong just a few picks below: Benson Eli, or McNabb? I think the answer to both is a resounding "NO!" with so many better producing and better valued WRs with lower ADPs.
Conclusion:
Joe Horn is a good football player and has been for several years. The Saints will be a team upder a lot of change for 2006. They have changed coaching staffs, changed QBs, and drafted Reggie Bush. With Horn getting older (age 34), he has so few years left in his NFL career and will be on a team in a state of flux and through a rebuilding year (s).
The player is Joe Horn. He is rated, through ADP as WR19 and player 57 overall. I think Horn is severely overvalued. He has had a very good career. He came to the NFL from Community College, Itawamba CC in Mississippi to be exact.
Positives:
Horn has put up several years of outstanding production.
Coaching change can only help in the long run
Healthy again
Missed very few games over his career
Negatives:
Loss of a QB (Brooks) who loved him and looked to him as the "go to" guy
New QB (Brees) is coming off of a shoulder injury
Drafting of Bush should mean less targets, thus less production
Horn is now 34 years old and only has a year or two left, at the most
Horn produced lowest numbers of last few years even though he had high targets/game ratio (He had 102 targets in 13 games)
Here are his career stats:
+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Rushing | Receiving |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 1996 kan | 10 | 1 8 8.0 0 | 2 30 15.0 0 |
| 1997 kan | 8 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 2 65 32.5 0 |
| 1998 kan | 16 | 1 0 0.0 0 | 14 198 14.1 1 |
| 1999 kan | 16 | 2 15 7.5 0 | 35 586 16.7 6 |
| 2000 nor | 16 | 6 18 3.0 0 | 94 1340 14.3 8 |
| 2001 nor | 16 | 1 4 4.0 0 | 83 1265 15.2 9 |
| 2002 nor | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 88 1312 14.9 7 |
| 2003 nor | 15 | 2 15 7.5 0 | 78 973 12.5 10 |
| 2004 nor | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 94 1399 14.9 11 |
| 2005 nor | 13 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 49 654 13.3 1 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| TOTAL | 142 | 13 60 4.6 0 | 539 7822 14.5 53 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/HornJo00.htm
Just to give you an idea of where WR19 fits in the ADP, and how overvalued Horn really is, here are the ADP numbers for those around Horn:
44 45 1 WR16 Javon Walker Den/4
46 47 1 WR17 Donald Driver GB/6
48 48 0 WR18 Andre Johnson Hou/5
57 56 -1 WR19 Joe Horn NO/7
58 57 -1 WR20 T.J. Houshmandzadeh Cin/5
60 61 1 WR21 Deion Branch NE/6
62 70 8 WR22 Derrick Mason Bal/7
65 64 -1 WR23 Joey Galloway TB/4
67 72 5 WR24 Lee Evans Buf/8
82 84 2 WR25 Michael Clayton TB/4
83 93 10 WR26 Rod Smith Den/4
Is that as obvious to everyone else as it is to me? OK, how about if we do not just look at WRs, but what players are around (above and below) Horn overall:
52 60 8 RB28 Cedric Benson Chi/7
53 52 -1 TE3 Tony Gonzalez KC/3
54 54 0 RB29 Joseph Addai Ind/6
55 55 0 QB5 Eli Manning NYG/4
56 53 -3 QB6 Donovan McNabb Phi/9
57 56 -1 WR19 Joe Horn NO/7
58 57 -1 WR20 T.J. Houshmandzadeh Cin/5
59 63 4 RB30 Fred Taylor Jac/6
60 61 1 WR21 Deion Branch NE/6
61 62 1 TE4 Todd Heap Bal/7
62 70 8 WR22 Derrick Mason Bal/7
63 58 -5 QB7 Marc Bulger StL/7
Does Horn really belong above: Branch, Heap, or Bulger? Does he really belong just a few picks below: Benson Eli, or McNabb? I think the answer to both is a resounding "NO!" with so many better producing and better valued WRs with lower ADPs.
Conclusion:
Joe Horn is a good football player and has been for several years. The Saints will be a team upder a lot of change for 2006. They have changed coaching staffs, changed QBs, and drafted Reggie Bush. With Horn getting older (age 34), he has so few years left in his NFL career and will be on a team in a state of flux and through a rebuilding year (s).
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jeter23
Footballguy
I agree with Jeff P and wannabee about Hilton, but I do have one fear. It seems like every year, there is a TE that is really getting pushed and seems ready for a break out year. Last year was Jeb Putzier. It has been Boo Williams in another. From what I have read, Hilton could be that player this year. Is this just a fluke? If it's not Hilton, who could it be?
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Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Who could be overrated at TE?KW2 - Has 5 more NFL catches than me.
Ben Watson - Can he carry the workload? Doesn't Brady just find the open man? Aren't there 21 TEs on the Pats roster?
wannabee
Footballguy
For redraft leagues, I love Aaron Brooks, QB, OAK at his current ADP. His ADP is QB17, and player 107 overall and even slipped 5 spots. So, this means that he is being drafted as a marginal QB2 and at the end of the 10th round. If my drafts play out like this, I will take Brooks at that spot for my QB1.
Here are the other QBs in that ADP area:
90 87 -3 QB13 Jake Plummer Den/4
95 98 3 QB14 Kurt Warner Ari/9
97 92 -5 QB15 Drew Brees NO/7
98 94 -4 QB16 Ben Roethlisberger Pit/4
107 102 -5 QB17 Aaron Brooks Oak/3
110 89 -21 QB18 Brett Favre GB/6
116 116 0 QB19 Byron Leftwich Jac/6
129 142 13 QB20 Steve McNair Ten/7
In 2005, Kerry Collins finished as the sixth best QB in points per game. Brooks inherits the same players, plus Curry should be healthy after returning from another Achilles injury.
Brooks is a young QB that is a much better fantasy QB than NFL QB, but that is all that matters. Brooks just turned 30 years old. Here are the career stats for Brooks:
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Passing | Rushing |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 2000 nor | 8 | 113 194 58.2 1514 7.8 9 6 | 41 170 2 |
| 2001 nor | 16 | 312 558 55.9 3832 6.9 26 22 | 80 358 1 |
| 2002 nor | 16 | 283 528 53.6 3572 6.8 27 15 | 61 256 2 |
| 2003 nor | 16 | 306 518 59.1 3546 6.8 24 8 | 54 175 2 |
| 2004 nor | 16 | 309 542 57.0 3810 7.0 21 16 | 58 173 4 |
| 2005 nor | 13 | 240 431 55.7 2882 6.7 13 17 | 45 281 2 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| TOTAL | 85 | 1563 2771 56.4 19156 6.9 120 84 | 339 1413 13 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/BrooAa00.htm
Outside of last year, Brooks was a top QB for five straight years -> he even had over 25 TDs in that streak. Even with the down year last year, Brooks was QB13 in ppg. I have to ask myself why Brooks had a down year. Here are some reasons I came up with:
Hurricanes ravenged New Orleans and everything from housing, practice facility, the Super Dome, etc was demolished. The players had their own lives, and the lives of their friends and familiesturned upside down.
Horn played injured for much of the year.
The injury to Deuce made things difficult for Brooks as a QB.
Many would consider Brooks a better QB than Collins, and we have to see what Collins did in 2005 in Oakland:
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Passing | Rushing |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 1995 car | 15 | 214 432 49.5 2717 6.3 14 19 | 42 74 3 |
| 1996 car | 13 | 204 364 56.0 2454 6.7 14 9 | 32 38 0 |
| 1997 car | 13 | 200 381 52.5 2124 5.6 11 21 | 26 65 1 |
| 1998 car | 4 | 76 162 46.9 1011 6.2 8 5 | 7 40 0 |
| 1998 nor | 7 | 94 191 49.2 1202 6.3 4 10 | 23 113 1 |
| 1999 nyg | 10 | 191 332 57.5 2316 7.0 8 11 | 19 36 2 |
| 2000 nyg | 16 | 311 529 58.8 3610 6.8 22 13 | 41 65 1 |
| 2001 nyg | 16 | 327 568 57.6 3764 6.6 19 16 | 39 73 0 |
| 2002 nyg | 16 | 335 545 61.5 4073 7.5 19 14 | 44 -3 0 |
| 2003 nyg | 13 | 284 500 56.8 3110 6.2 13 16 | 17 49 0 |
| 2004 oak | 14 | 289 513 56.3 3495 6.8 21 20 | 16 36 0 |
| 2005 oak | 15 | 302 565 53.5 3759 6.7 20 12 | 18 38 1 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| TOTAL | 152 | 2827 5082 55.6 33635 6.6 173 166 | 324 624 9
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/CollKe00.htm
If Collins can put up those yards, which is where most of his fantasy points came from in Oakland, Brooks can, too. In that offense with those weapons.
Brooks, in NO, had several years with better numbers better than Collins had in 2005. So the sky is the limit.
Conclusion:
If you are a fantasy owner who likes to wait on QB until the later rounds, you should target Aaron Brooks. Brooks offers a ton of upside for such little risk. To ensure yourself for the slight possibility of Walter playing at the end of the season, I advise grabbing Andrew Walter with a late round pick.
Here are the other QBs in that ADP area:
90 87 -3 QB13 Jake Plummer Den/4
95 98 3 QB14 Kurt Warner Ari/9
97 92 -5 QB15 Drew Brees NO/7
98 94 -4 QB16 Ben Roethlisberger Pit/4
107 102 -5 QB17 Aaron Brooks Oak/3
110 89 -21 QB18 Brett Favre GB/6
116 116 0 QB19 Byron Leftwich Jac/6
129 142 13 QB20 Steve McNair Ten/7
In 2005, Kerry Collins finished as the sixth best QB in points per game. Brooks inherits the same players, plus Curry should be healthy after returning from another Achilles injury.
Brooks is a young QB that is a much better fantasy QB than NFL QB, but that is all that matters. Brooks just turned 30 years old. Here are the career stats for Brooks:
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Passing | Rushing |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 2000 nor | 8 | 113 194 58.2 1514 7.8 9 6 | 41 170 2 |
| 2001 nor | 16 | 312 558 55.9 3832 6.9 26 22 | 80 358 1 |
| 2002 nor | 16 | 283 528 53.6 3572 6.8 27 15 | 61 256 2 |
| 2003 nor | 16 | 306 518 59.1 3546 6.8 24 8 | 54 175 2 |
| 2004 nor | 16 | 309 542 57.0 3810 7.0 21 16 | 58 173 4 |
| 2005 nor | 13 | 240 431 55.7 2882 6.7 13 17 | 45 281 2 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| TOTAL | 85 | 1563 2771 56.4 19156 6.9 120 84 | 339 1413 13 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/BrooAa00.htm
Outside of last year, Brooks was a top QB for five straight years -> he even had over 25 TDs in that streak. Even with the down year last year, Brooks was QB13 in ppg. I have to ask myself why Brooks had a down year. Here are some reasons I came up with:
Hurricanes ravenged New Orleans and everything from housing, practice facility, the Super Dome, etc was demolished. The players had their own lives, and the lives of their friends and familiesturned upside down.
Horn played injured for much of the year.
The injury to Deuce made things difficult for Brooks as a QB.
Many would consider Brooks a better QB than Collins, and we have to see what Collins did in 2005 in Oakland:
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Passing | Rushing |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 1995 car | 15 | 214 432 49.5 2717 6.3 14 19 | 42 74 3 |
| 1996 car | 13 | 204 364 56.0 2454 6.7 14 9 | 32 38 0 |
| 1997 car | 13 | 200 381 52.5 2124 5.6 11 21 | 26 65 1 |
| 1998 car | 4 | 76 162 46.9 1011 6.2 8 5 | 7 40 0 |
| 1998 nor | 7 | 94 191 49.2 1202 6.3 4 10 | 23 113 1 |
| 1999 nyg | 10 | 191 332 57.5 2316 7.0 8 11 | 19 36 2 |
| 2000 nyg | 16 | 311 529 58.8 3610 6.8 22 13 | 41 65 1 |
| 2001 nyg | 16 | 327 568 57.6 3764 6.6 19 16 | 39 73 0 |
| 2002 nyg | 16 | 335 545 61.5 4073 7.5 19 14 | 44 -3 0 |
| 2003 nyg | 13 | 284 500 56.8 3110 6.2 13 16 | 17 49 0 |
| 2004 oak | 14 | 289 513 56.3 3495 6.8 21 20 | 16 36 0 |
| 2005 oak | 15 | 302 565 53.5 3759 6.7 20 12 | 18 38 1 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| TOTAL | 152 | 2827 5082 55.6 33635 6.6 173 166 | 324 624 9
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/CollKe00.htm
If Collins can put up those yards, which is where most of his fantasy points came from in Oakland, Brooks can, too. In that offense with those weapons.
Brooks, in NO, had several years with better numbers better than Collins had in 2005. So the sky is the limit.
Conclusion:
If you are a fantasy owner who likes to wait on QB until the later rounds, you should target Aaron Brooks. Brooks offers a ton of upside for such little risk. To ensure yourself for the slight possibility of Walter playing at the end of the season, I advise grabbing Andrew Walter with a late round pick.
wannabee
Footballguy
One guy who I think is a definite "sell high" is Julius Jones. Jones currently has an ADP of RB15 and ADP of 21 overall. This is basically saying that he is going 2.09 in 12 team redraft leagues. That is crazy.
Let's review Jones. He is young (will only be 24 in August). He was drafted in the second round of the 2004 draft. Jones was productive in limited action as a rookie. This made him overvalued in 2005. I see this happening alot and even wrote a previous post on how rookie RBs are overvalued in year 2.
Jones did have a great stretch of games his rookie year. Most remember the 30 carries, 198 yards and 3 TD game vs Seattle. To refresh, Jones came on and played the last 7 games of the year after Eddie George fizzled. Richie Anderson alson got a lot of work early in the year. Most of Jones' numbers come from the seven game streak to end the season. Here is a link for the game logs for both seasons:
http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-dal-4.php
Part of the problem for Julius Jones has been his propensity for injuries. In his short two years in the league, Jones has missed several games due to injury. Here is a list of all of the times he has shown up on the injury report:
Player Name Year Week Status Details
Julius Jones 2005 8 Questionable Ankle
Julius Jones 2005 7 Questionable Ankle
Julius Jones 2005 6 Questionable Ankle
Julius Jones 2004 11 Doubtful shoulder
Julius Jones 2004 10 Out shoulder
Julius Jones 2004 9 Out shoulder
Julius Jones 2004 8 Out shoulder
Julius Jones 2004 7 Out shoulder
Julius Jones 2004 6 Out shoulder
Julius Jones 2004 5 Out shoulder
Julius Jones 2004 3 Out shoulder
Julius Jones 2004 1 Probable teeth
Player's last name (OPTIONAL)
http://insidethestats.com/index.php?option...etail=1&id=7433
Coach Parcells has been vocal about these injuries and his like for Jones' 2005 back up, Marion Barber. Here are a couple of the news blurbs:
Cowboys | Barber appears to becoming a Parcells favorite
Published Sun Jun 25 9:36:00 p.m. ET 2006
(KFFL) Nick Eatman, of DallasCowboys.com, reports Dallas Cowboys RB Marion Barber III appears to becoming a favorite of head coach Bill Parcells with his ability to block, catch out of the backfield and pick up yards inside. Barber could push RB Julius Jones for playing time.
Cowboys | Jones working to stay healthy for a full season
Published Wed Jul 12 12:19:00 a.m. ET 2006
(KFFL) Nick Eatman, of DallasCowboys.com, reports Dallas Cowboys RB Julius Jones is fully recovered from a high ankle sprain which plagued him for most of last season. Jones has set lofty predictions for himself in the past and says the only thing preventing him from being an elite running back in the league is his inability to play a full season. Coach Bill Parcells is also a little concerned about Jones' durability, "I think Julius still has that to answer a little bit but he's working hard."
Below are the season stats for Jones from the last two years:
+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Rushing | Receiving |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 2004 dal | 8 | 197 819 4.2 7 | 17 109 6.4 0 |
| 2005 dal | 13 | 257 993 3.9 5 | 35 218 6.2 0 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| TOTAL | 21 | 454 1812 4.0 12 | 52 327 6.3 0 |
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/JoneJu01.htm
Now, let's remember that Jones is listed as the 15th RB taken in drafts and 21st player overall. We also need to remember the quotes from Parcells listed above. I am amazed to why the high hopes for Jones given these circumstances. Even last year, Jones was RB19 on points per game and RB19 in fantasy points in 13 games.
http://insidethestats.com/index.php?option...ats&statstype=1
Conclusion:
Jones, with the emergence of Marion Barber midway through the season, only produced RB19 stats. I see that as the high side. Avoid Julius Jones in the second round of your redraft leagues. I can understand the value of taking Jones in the third round. But, according to his ADP, he is overvalued and is to be avoided. I see RBBC written all over this situation and it seems Barber much later in the draft is the Dallas RB to take.
Let's review Jones. He is young (will only be 24 in August). He was drafted in the second round of the 2004 draft. Jones was productive in limited action as a rookie. This made him overvalued in 2005. I see this happening alot and even wrote a previous post on how rookie RBs are overvalued in year 2.
Jones did have a great stretch of games his rookie year. Most remember the 30 carries, 198 yards and 3 TD game vs Seattle. To refresh, Jones came on and played the last 7 games of the year after Eddie George fizzled. Richie Anderson alson got a lot of work early in the year. Most of Jones' numbers come from the seven game streak to end the season. Here is a link for the game logs for both seasons:
http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-dal-4.php
Part of the problem for Julius Jones has been his propensity for injuries. In his short two years in the league, Jones has missed several games due to injury. Here is a list of all of the times he has shown up on the injury report:
Player Name Year Week Status Details
Julius Jones 2005 8 Questionable Ankle
Julius Jones 2005 7 Questionable Ankle
Julius Jones 2005 6 Questionable Ankle
Julius Jones 2004 11 Doubtful shoulder
Julius Jones 2004 10 Out shoulder
Julius Jones 2004 9 Out shoulder
Julius Jones 2004 8 Out shoulder
Julius Jones 2004 7 Out shoulder
Julius Jones 2004 6 Out shoulder
Julius Jones 2004 5 Out shoulder
Julius Jones 2004 3 Out shoulder
Julius Jones 2004 1 Probable teeth
Player's last name (OPTIONAL)
http://insidethestats.com/index.php?option...etail=1&id=7433
Coach Parcells has been vocal about these injuries and his like for Jones' 2005 back up, Marion Barber. Here are a couple of the news blurbs:
Cowboys | Barber appears to becoming a Parcells favorite
Published Sun Jun 25 9:36:00 p.m. ET 2006
(KFFL) Nick Eatman, of DallasCowboys.com, reports Dallas Cowboys RB Marion Barber III appears to becoming a favorite of head coach Bill Parcells with his ability to block, catch out of the backfield and pick up yards inside. Barber could push RB Julius Jones for playing time.
Cowboys | Jones working to stay healthy for a full season
Published Wed Jul 12 12:19:00 a.m. ET 2006
(KFFL) Nick Eatman, of DallasCowboys.com, reports Dallas Cowboys RB Julius Jones is fully recovered from a high ankle sprain which plagued him for most of last season. Jones has set lofty predictions for himself in the past and says the only thing preventing him from being an elite running back in the league is his inability to play a full season. Coach Bill Parcells is also a little concerned about Jones' durability, "I think Julius still has that to answer a little bit but he's working hard."
Below are the season stats for Jones from the last two years:
+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Rushing | Receiving |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 2004 dal | 8 | 197 819 4.2 7 | 17 109 6.4 0 |
| 2005 dal | 13 | 257 993 3.9 5 | 35 218 6.2 0 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| TOTAL | 21 | 454 1812 4.0 12 | 52 327 6.3 0 |
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/JoneJu01.htm
Now, let's remember that Jones is listed as the 15th RB taken in drafts and 21st player overall. We also need to remember the quotes from Parcells listed above. I am amazed to why the high hopes for Jones given these circumstances. Even last year, Jones was RB19 on points per game and RB19 in fantasy points in 13 games.
http://insidethestats.com/index.php?option...ats&statstype=1
Conclusion:
Jones, with the emergence of Marion Barber midway through the season, only produced RB19 stats. I see that as the high side. Avoid Julius Jones in the second round of your redraft leagues. I can understand the value of taking Jones in the third round. But, according to his ADP, he is overvalued and is to be avoided. I see RBBC written all over this situation and it seems Barber much later in the draft is the Dallas RB to take.
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wannabee
Footballguy
I am still working on a schedule of one write up per day, usually a buy low or sell high.
But, I really would like to know if/when people agree or disagree with the post and why. I started this thread to have some meaningful football discussion. I assume we all get more out of a balanced discussion instead of my one-sided write ups.
But, I really would like to know if/when people agree or disagree with the post and why. I started this thread to have some meaningful football discussion. I assume we all get more out of a balanced discussion instead of my one-sided write ups.
wannabee
Footballguy
Staff member, David Yudkin had a great insight on Jones' hot streak at the end on 2004 in a thread in the Shark Pool:Another thing I forget to mention about JJ. When he had his hot streak at the end of 2004, IMO, much of it was out of necessity not by choice.
The other RB options were . . .
- An ineffective Eddie George
- A banged up Richie Anderson
- Rashard Lee
In terms of other offensive weapons, Terry Glenn was hurt. Antonio Bryant had just been traded, and newcomer Quincy Morgan did not know the system and struggled. The only other legit offensive threats were Witten and Keyshawn.
Add it all up, and Jones got much more of a workload than would normally be expected. And IMO he won't see that workload again given that there are healthy and talented WR, TE, and supporting RB.
To add on to this point, another staff member, Marc Levin pointed out that to get these stats Jones avereaged 30 touches per game over that stretch (27 carries and 3 catches).
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...pic=251514&st=0
wannabee
Footballguy
There is one player whom most like to pull for as a NFL player, and has been a very good fantasy player for many years. The player, number 4 - Brett Favre. I see Favre as a great "buy low" for redrafts or dynasty leagues if you are looking at a one year window. His ADP is QB18, and 110 overall ADP (down a whopping 21 spots). So, the ADP says that Favre will be an average backup QB in 12 team leagues and he can be drafted in the 10th round. I think he is better than that ADP and will want to go out (retire) on a good year.
Last year was a down year for Favre. The Packers had all sorts of injury problems in 2005. They lost WR, Javon Walker in the first game. This was followed by every RB going down to injury, less rookie Gado. Also, several other WRs missed time due to injury. Still, Favre, with his lowest numbers in several years was still QB13.
http://insidethestats.com/index.php?option...ats&statstype=1
Here are Favre's career stats:
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Passing | Rushing |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 1991 atl | 2 | 0 5 0.0 0 0.0 0 2 | 0 0 0 |
| 1992 gnb | 15 | 302 471 64.1 3227 6.9 18 13 | 47 198 1 |
| 1993 gnb | 16 | 318 522 60.9 3303 6.3 19 24 | 58 216 1 |
| 1994 gnb | 16 | 363 582 62.4 3882 6.7 33 14 | 42 202 2 |
| 1995 gnb | 16 | 359 570 63.0 4413 7.7 38 13 | 39 181 3 |
| 1996 gnb | 16 | 325 543 59.9 3899 7.2 39 13 | 49 136 2 |
| 1997 gnb | 16 | 304 513 59.3 3867 7.5 35 16 | 58 187 1 |
| 1998 gnb | 16 | 347 551 63.0 4212 7.6 31 23 | 40 133 1 |
| 1999 gnb | 16 | 341 595 57.3 4091 6.9 22 23 | 28 142 0 |
| 2000 gnb | 16 | 338 580 58.3 3812 6.6 20 16 | 27 108 0 |
| 2001 gnb | 16 | 314 510 61.6 3921 7.7 32 15 | 38 56 1 |
| 2002 gnb | 16 | 341 551 61.9 3658 6.6 27 16 | 25 73 0 |
| 2003 gnb | 16 | 308 472 65.3 3361 7.1 32 21 | 18 15 0 |
| 2004 gnb | 16 | 346 540 64.1 4088 7.6 30 17 | 16 36 0 |
| 2005 gnb | 16 | 372 607 61.3 3881 6.4 20 29 | 18 62 0 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| TOTAL | 225 | 4678 7612 61.5 53615 7.0 396 255 | 503 1745 12 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/FavrBr00.htm
I expect an improved running game will allow drives to sustain longer. His yards per attempt stat was way down last year, in fact the lowest since 1993. I look for Favre to have fewer attempts, a better ypa, similar yardage, and a couple more TDs. I expect Favre to finish in the QB10-14 range. For those not familiar with the difference in those numbers, it is very slight. Approximately, there are only 1-2 points per game difference between QB14 and QB8. For example, QB6 (using ppg) had 17.66 ppg and QB19 had 16.27 (Those numbers were slated for QB20 - Plummer, but Fitzpatrick only played in 4 games so I through him out).
http://insidethestats.com/index.php?option...ats&statstype=1
This is why many wait until later in the draft to take a QB.
Conclusion:
Many do not realize that Favre will be 37 years old this October. He has been playing in the NFL since 1991. If you decide to wait on a QB in your draft, you should have a great chance to win it all whiile taking RBs and WRs early and drafting Fatre in the 10th round. You should be able to make up the 1.50 ppg with these other players. Also, Favre has been an ironman in the past and has not missed a start since 1992.
Last year was a down year for Favre. The Packers had all sorts of injury problems in 2005. They lost WR, Javon Walker in the first game. This was followed by every RB going down to injury, less rookie Gado. Also, several other WRs missed time due to injury. Still, Favre, with his lowest numbers in several years was still QB13.
http://insidethestats.com/index.php?option...ats&statstype=1
Here are Favre's career stats:
+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Passing | Rushing |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| Year TM | G | Comp Att PCT YD Y/A TD INT | Att Yards TD |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| 1991 atl | 2 | 0 5 0.0 0 0.0 0 2 | 0 0 0 |
| 1992 gnb | 15 | 302 471 64.1 3227 6.9 18 13 | 47 198 1 |
| 1993 gnb | 16 | 318 522 60.9 3303 6.3 19 24 | 58 216 1 |
| 1994 gnb | 16 | 363 582 62.4 3882 6.7 33 14 | 42 202 2 |
| 1995 gnb | 16 | 359 570 63.0 4413 7.7 38 13 | 39 181 3 |
| 1996 gnb | 16 | 325 543 59.9 3899 7.2 39 13 | 49 136 2 |
| 1997 gnb | 16 | 304 513 59.3 3867 7.5 35 16 | 58 187 1 |
| 1998 gnb | 16 | 347 551 63.0 4212 7.6 31 23 | 40 133 1 |
| 1999 gnb | 16 | 341 595 57.3 4091 6.9 22 23 | 28 142 0 |
| 2000 gnb | 16 | 338 580 58.3 3812 6.6 20 16 | 27 108 0 |
| 2001 gnb | 16 | 314 510 61.6 3921 7.7 32 15 | 38 56 1 |
| 2002 gnb | 16 | 341 551 61.9 3658 6.6 27 16 | 25 73 0 |
| 2003 gnb | 16 | 308 472 65.3 3361 7.1 32 21 | 18 15 0 |
| 2004 gnb | 16 | 346 540 64.1 4088 7.6 30 17 | 16 36 0 |
| 2005 gnb | 16 | 372 607 61.3 3881 6.4 20 29 | 18 62 0 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
| TOTAL | 225 | 4678 7612 61.5 53615 7.0 396 255 | 503 1745 12 |
+----------+-----+---------------------------------------+-----------------+
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/FavrBr00.htm
I expect an improved running game will allow drives to sustain longer. His yards per attempt stat was way down last year, in fact the lowest since 1993. I look for Favre to have fewer attempts, a better ypa, similar yardage, and a couple more TDs. I expect Favre to finish in the QB10-14 range. For those not familiar with the difference in those numbers, it is very slight. Approximately, there are only 1-2 points per game difference between QB14 and QB8. For example, QB6 (using ppg) had 17.66 ppg and QB19 had 16.27 (Those numbers were slated for QB20 - Plummer, but Fitzpatrick only played in 4 games so I through him out).
http://insidethestats.com/index.php?option...ats&statstype=1
This is why many wait until later in the draft to take a QB.
Conclusion:
Many do not realize that Favre will be 37 years old this October. He has been playing in the NFL since 1991. If you decide to wait on a QB in your draft, you should have a great chance to win it all whiile taking RBs and WRs early and drafting Fatre in the 10th round. You should be able to make up the 1.50 ppg with these other players. Also, Favre has been an ironman in the past and has not missed a start since 1992.
Gandalf
Footballguy
Hi Wannabee,
I posted a poll as a separate thread, but wanted your advice on the following offer. Especially since you saved me from making a mistake in trading away LT. The same owner who wanted LT now wants Larry Fitz. He's offering Roy Williams, Adrian Peterson (college RB from Oklahoma), and the better of his two first round picks (which should be in the 4-6 vicinity) in the college draft next year. I would also have to give him the RB prospect from Oregon Jonathan Stewart (he's good but a sophomore so he's going to take over as the starter this year) because we can only keep 3 college guys and I already have Lynch and McFadden who aren't going anywhere.
My team is in the sig below. His team is:
QB: E Manning, Delhomme, Rivers, Rodgers
RB: KJ, D Davis, B Westbrook
WR: Boldin, R Williams, C Rodgers, M Jenkins
TE: K Winslow, C Cooley
Any advice? Thanks.
-G
I posted a poll as a separate thread, but wanted your advice on the following offer. Especially since you saved me from making a mistake in trading away LT. The same owner who wanted LT now wants Larry Fitz. He's offering Roy Williams, Adrian Peterson (college RB from Oklahoma), and the better of his two first round picks (which should be in the 4-6 vicinity) in the college draft next year. I would also have to give him the RB prospect from Oregon Jonathan Stewart (he's good but a sophomore so he's going to take over as the starter this year) because we can only keep 3 college guys and I already have Lynch and McFadden who aren't going anywhere.
My team is in the sig below. His team is:
QB: E Manning, Delhomme, Rivers, Rodgers
RB: KJ, D Davis, B Westbrook
WR: Boldin, R Williams, C Rodgers, M Jenkins
TE: K Winslow, C Cooley
Any advice? Thanks.
-G
Last edited by a moderator:
wannabee
Footballguy
Hello. Thanks for the kind words. I would consider that offer, especially since it is a non-PPR league. What I might do is ask for one more player, Cooley (or Winslow - whichever you like better). This would allow you not to have to start Davis off the bat. I think it might take a little time for Davis to get going. With Cooley, depending on who you end up cutting, I think it is a very good deal. The other thing I might do is put the development RB, Stewart, on the market to see if there are any takers. Never hurts to see.
This is a tough trade. No one likes to give up the stud. But, you would be getting good value for Fitz.
wannabee
Footballguy
Although this player led a few of my teams last year, and is still on a keeper league team, I have to say tht Edge James is a "sell high".
Last year, James finished fifth for RB fantasy points ahead of all but Tiki, Alexander, LJ, and LT. That seems like an incredible feat for a RB on a passing offense. But, surprisingly, James had over 400 touches last year. He had 360 carries and 44 catches. That is a load of touches. But, the Colt offense put James into situations he thrived. The offense was a very good fit for James' skill set.
As you all know, James is now in Arizona. He went from one of the best offensive lines to one that is average at best. James last year, and over his career, had a 4.2 ypc. That is very respectable given the number of carries he had. His stats would have been even better had the Colts not held him out for parts of the last two games.
Here are the game logs:
+----------+-------------+--------+----+
| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |
+----------+-------------+--------+----+
| 1 bal | 23 88 | 26 | 0 |
| 2 jax | 27 128 | 39 | 0 |
| 3 cle | 27 108 | 29 | 1 |
| 4 ten | 21 90 | 12 | 1 |
| 5 sfo | 21 105 | 42 | 1 |
| 6 ram | 23 143 | 16 | 3 |
| 7 hou | 21 139 | 8 | 2 |
| 9 nwe | 34 104 | 9 | 1 |
| 10 hou | 26 122 | 26 | 1 |
| 11 cin | 24 89 | 18 | 2 |
| 12 pit | 29 124 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 ten | 28 107 | 17 | 1 |
| 14 jax | 30 93 | 61 | 0 |
| 15 sdg | 13 25 | 20 | 1 |
| 16 sea | 13 41 | 14 | 0 |
+----------+-------------+--------+----+
| TOTAL | 360 1506 | 337 | 14 |
+----------+-------------+--------+----+
Here are James' career stats:
+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Rushing | Receiving |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 1999 ind | 16 | 369 1553 4.2 13 | 62 586 9.5 4 |
| 2000 ind | 16 | 387 1709 4.4 13 | 63 594 9.4 5 |
| 2001 ind | 6 | 151 662 4.4 3 | 24 193 8.0 0 |
| 2002 ind | 14 | 277 989 3.6 2 | 61 354 5.8 1 |
| 2003 ind | 13 | 310 1259 4.1 11 | 51 292 5.7 0 |
| 2004 ind | 16 | 334 1548 4.6 9 | 51 483 9.5 0 |
| 2005 ind | 15 | 360 1506 4.2 13 | 44 337 7.7 1 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| TOTAL | 96 | 2188 9226 4.2 64 | 356 2839 8.0 11 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/JameEd00.htm
The Cardinals tried to address the running game in 2005 by drafting JJ Arrington. This pick did not do well. Some say it is because of Arrington's talent, others blame the OLine. But, in comparison to James' 4.2 ypc, the Cardinals as a team had a 3.16 ypc (last in the league), only 2 TDs (last in the league), and only 1160 yards rushing on 360 carries (oddly the same number Edge had). Arrington himself had a 3.3 ypc, for reference.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/crd2005.htm
So, it is very safe to say that Edge goes from a very good situation to one that can be characterized as average at best (some would call poor) for a running back. Last year, the Cardinals threw the ball a lot. They were first in the league with a whopping 670 passing attempts.
Conclusion:
James currently has an ADP of RB5 and the 5th pick overall. Given that James finished 5th last year in an almost ideal situation, and is drafted at the same place, he is overavalued. For reference purposes, the FBG staff rankings have James as the RB10, with one staffer (Dave Baker) the highest at RB5. Jeff Pasquino had Edge ranked the lowest at RB13. I see a ton of risk with taking James at RB5. Of the top several RBs, James' situation has changed the most. There is not much precedence for a star RB at this stage in his career changing teams. Ricky Watters, in 1998 changed teams from Philly to Seattle is the only one that comes to mind. Faulk, Portis Ricky Williams, etc were all traded early in their careers so the comparison is difficult.
I expect Edge James to finish around the RB8-RB12 range at the very best. In redrafts, I cannot imagine taking James over either Portis or Tiki. The risk/reward of taking Edge at RB5 is not good at all. You are drafting him where he finished in 2005 and was in a much better situation.
Links used in this post:
http://www.footballguys.com/viewrankings.p...=rb&howrecent=7
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/WattRi00.htm
Last year, James finished fifth for RB fantasy points ahead of all but Tiki, Alexander, LJ, and LT. That seems like an incredible feat for a RB on a passing offense. But, surprisingly, James had over 400 touches last year. He had 360 carries and 44 catches. That is a load of touches. But, the Colt offense put James into situations he thrived. The offense was a very good fit for James' skill set.
As you all know, James is now in Arizona. He went from one of the best offensive lines to one that is average at best. James last year, and over his career, had a 4.2 ypc. That is very respectable given the number of carries he had. His stats would have been even better had the Colts not held him out for parts of the last two games.
Here are the game logs:
+----------+-------------+--------+----+
| WK OPP | RSH YD | RECYD | TD |
+----------+-------------+--------+----+
| 1 bal | 23 88 | 26 | 0 |
| 2 jax | 27 128 | 39 | 0 |
| 3 cle | 27 108 | 29 | 1 |
| 4 ten | 21 90 | 12 | 1 |
| 5 sfo | 21 105 | 42 | 1 |
| 6 ram | 23 143 | 16 | 3 |
| 7 hou | 21 139 | 8 | 2 |
| 9 nwe | 34 104 | 9 | 1 |
| 10 hou | 26 122 | 26 | 1 |
| 11 cin | 24 89 | 18 | 2 |
| 12 pit | 29 124 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 ten | 28 107 | 17 | 1 |
| 14 jax | 30 93 | 61 | 0 |
| 15 sdg | 13 25 | 20 | 1 |
| 16 sea | 13 41 | 14 | 0 |
+----------+-------------+--------+----+
| TOTAL | 360 1506 | 337 | 14 |
+----------+-------------+--------+----+
Here are James' career stats:
+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Rushing | Receiving |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 1999 ind | 16 | 369 1553 4.2 13 | 62 586 9.5 4 |
| 2000 ind | 16 | 387 1709 4.4 13 | 63 594 9.4 5 |
| 2001 ind | 6 | 151 662 4.4 3 | 24 193 8.0 0 |
| 2002 ind | 14 | 277 989 3.6 2 | 61 354 5.8 1 |
| 2003 ind | 13 | 310 1259 4.1 11 | 51 292 5.7 0 |
| 2004 ind | 16 | 334 1548 4.6 9 | 51 483 9.5 0 |
| 2005 ind | 15 | 360 1506 4.2 13 | 44 337 7.7 1 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| TOTAL | 96 | 2188 9226 4.2 64 | 356 2839 8.0 11 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/JameEd00.htm
The Cardinals tried to address the running game in 2005 by drafting JJ Arrington. This pick did not do well. Some say it is because of Arrington's talent, others blame the OLine. But, in comparison to James' 4.2 ypc, the Cardinals as a team had a 3.16 ypc (last in the league), only 2 TDs (last in the league), and only 1160 yards rushing on 360 carries (oddly the same number Edge had). Arrington himself had a 3.3 ypc, for reference.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/crd2005.htm
So, it is very safe to say that Edge goes from a very good situation to one that can be characterized as average at best (some would call poor) for a running back. Last year, the Cardinals threw the ball a lot. They were first in the league with a whopping 670 passing attempts.
Conclusion:
James currently has an ADP of RB5 and the 5th pick overall. Given that James finished 5th last year in an almost ideal situation, and is drafted at the same place, he is overavalued. For reference purposes, the FBG staff rankings have James as the RB10, with one staffer (Dave Baker) the highest at RB5. Jeff Pasquino had Edge ranked the lowest at RB13. I see a ton of risk with taking James at RB5. Of the top several RBs, James' situation has changed the most. There is not much precedence for a star RB at this stage in his career changing teams. Ricky Watters, in 1998 changed teams from Philly to Seattle is the only one that comes to mind. Faulk, Portis Ricky Williams, etc were all traded early in their careers so the comparison is difficult.
I expect Edge James to finish around the RB8-RB12 range at the very best. In redrafts, I cannot imagine taking James over either Portis or Tiki. The risk/reward of taking Edge at RB5 is not good at all. You are drafting him where he finished in 2005 and was in a much better situation.
Links used in this post:
http://www.footballguys.com/viewrankings.p...=rb&howrecent=7
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/WattRi00.htm
Last edited by a moderator:
Wannabee - Your work is darn good. You are helping me learn. Keep it up. I want to get your opinionn on a keeper league trade.
I give Alexander and Edge and get Ronnie Brown, Cadillac, and Maroney (already had our rookie draft). League rules are 14 team, keep up to 3 each year. No PPR. 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, 1 TE, K, DEF team. Before the trade my keepers are Alexander, Edge, and Culpepper. We do a 2 round rookie draft and can keep those guys as well. That's how Maroney is in the mix.
Just read your thoughts on Edge a couple of posts earlier. I think I take a hit for sure this year, maybe it pays off down the road. Worried if I am giving up a stud for the next Kevin Jones - not a good thing.
I give Alexander and Edge and get Ronnie Brown, Cadillac, and Maroney (already had our rookie draft). League rules are 14 team, keep up to 3 each year. No PPR. 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, 1 TE, K, DEF team. Before the trade my keepers are Alexander, Edge, and Culpepper. We do a 2 round rookie draft and can keep those guys as well. That's how Maroney is in the mix.
Just read your thoughts on Edge a couple of posts earlier. I think I take a hit for sure this year, maybe it pays off down the road. Worried if I am giving up a stud for the next Kevin Jones - not a good thing.
wannabee
Footballguy
Thank you for the nice words. I would still prefer the Alexander and Edge side. I know I might be in the minority, but I think Caddy and Brown might be a touch overrated/overvalued (esp Caddy). I do like Maroney. But, I think you are taking too big of risk with this deal.
For reference purpose:
Last year
Alexander averaged 22 points/game
Edge averaged 17 points/game
Caddy averaged 11 points/game
Brown averaged 9 points/game
Brown's average should go up because he will be carrying the full load and not splitting carries with Ricky. But, is it enough? I do not think so.
Hope this helps.
wannabee
Footballguy
As many of you know, I like to look up stats to see how players have done against certain teams, or even more importantly, how WRs performed with different QBs. One place to find this info is the game logs here at FBG. These are hard to find and to navigate. Also, these game logs go back a few years. So, I will list the links here:
ARZ - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-crd-4.php
ATL - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-atl-4.php
BAL - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-rav-4.php
BUF - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-buf-4.php
CAR - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-car-4.php
CHI - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-chi-4.php
CIN - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-cin-4.php
CLE - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-cle-4.php
DAL - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-dal-4.php
DEN - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-den-4.php
DET - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-det-4.php
GB - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-gnb-4.php
HOU - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-htx-4.php
IND - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-clt-4.php
JAX - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-jax-4.php
KC - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-kan-4.php
MIA - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-mia-4.php
MIN - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-min-4.php
NE - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-nwe-4.php
NO - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-nor-4.php
NYG - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-nyg-4.php
NYJ - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-nyj-4.php
OAK - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-rai-4.php
PHI - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-phi-4.php
PIT - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-pit-4.php
SD - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-sdg-4.php
SEA - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-sea-4.php
SF - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-sfo-4.php
StL - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-ram-4.php
TB - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-tam-4.php
TEN - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-oti-4.php
WAS - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-was-4.php
These have been a huge help to me. I hope they are to you, too.
ARZ - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-crd-4.php
ATL - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-atl-4.php
BAL - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-rav-4.php
BUF - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-buf-4.php
CAR - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-car-4.php
CHI - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-chi-4.php
CIN - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-cin-4.php
CLE - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-cle-4.php
DAL - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-dal-4.php
DEN - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-den-4.php
DET - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-det-4.php
GB - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-gnb-4.php
HOU - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-htx-4.php
IND - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-clt-4.php
JAX - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-jax-4.php
KC - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-kan-4.php
MIA - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-mia-4.php
MIN - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-min-4.php
NE - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-nwe-4.php
NO - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-nor-4.php
NYG - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-nyg-4.php
NYJ - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-nyj-4.php
OAK - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-rai-4.php
PHI - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-phi-4.php
PIT - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-pit-4.php
SD - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-sdg-4.php
SEA - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-sea-4.php
SF - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-sfo-4.php
StL - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-ram-4.php
TB - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-tam-4.php
TEN - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-oti-4.php
WAS - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-was-4.php
These have been a huge help to me. I hope they are to you, too.
wannabee
Footballguy
Instead of doing another "buy low" or "sell high" today, I want to introduce many to the value, and ease of looking at targets. I use targets to see how a WR, RB, or TE is used for the game, or year. For instance, I have been down on the hype of Michael Jenkins and Roddy White for redraft when I noticed that Brian Finneran, of all people, led the Falcon WRs in targets last year. A target is a pass attemp to a certain player. For the Falcons, the targets show how much Vick looks to Crumpler. Most who watch football know that, but Finneran.
One other thing I do is flip back and forth between at targets data and and the game logs. The links for the game logs is in a post a few above this one. Some info gained is how Kelly Holcomb locked on to Moulds last year and Losman locked on to Evans. There was a fairly direct correlation between which Buffalo QB started the game and which WR would have a good game. This type of info is invaluable. You can also hit the button for red zone targets which is valuable, too.
The targets showw this type of information. Here are the links to each team's target page:
ARZ - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-crd-2.php
ATL - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-atl-2.php
BAL - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-rav-2.php
BUF - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-buf-2.php
CAR - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-car-2.php
CHI - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-chi-2.php
CIN - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-cin-2.php
CLE - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-cle-2.php
DAL - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-dal-2.php
DEN - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-den-2.php
DET - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-det-2.php
GB - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-gnb-2.php
HOU - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-htx-2.php
IND - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-clt-2.php
JAX - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-jax-2.php
KC - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-kan-2.php
MIA - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-mia-2.php
MIN - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-min-2.php
NE - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-nwe-2.php
NO - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-nor-2.php
NYG - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-nyg-2.php
NYJ - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-nyj-2.php
OAK - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-rai-2.php
PHI - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-phi-2.php
PIT - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-pit-2.php
SD - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-sdg-2.php
SEA - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-sea-2.php
SF - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-sfo-2.php
STL - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-ram-2.php
TB - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-tam-2.php
TEN - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-oti-2.php
WAS - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-was-2.php
Here is the page full of the teams, including the red zone targets. I would encourage all to look at the targets for each team. Each link above has several years of target info. I think this is where you find sleeper prospects.
http://www.footballguys.com/05targetdetails.php
Hope this helps.
One other thing I do is flip back and forth between at targets data and and the game logs. The links for the game logs is in a post a few above this one. Some info gained is how Kelly Holcomb locked on to Moulds last year and Losman locked on to Evans. There was a fairly direct correlation between which Buffalo QB started the game and which WR would have a good game. This type of info is invaluable. You can also hit the button for red zone targets which is valuable, too.
The targets showw this type of information. Here are the links to each team's target page:
ARZ - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-crd-2.php
ATL - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-atl-2.php
BAL - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-rav-2.php
BUF - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-buf-2.php
CAR - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-car-2.php
CHI - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-chi-2.php
CIN - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-cin-2.php
CLE - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-cle-2.php
DAL - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-dal-2.php
DEN - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-den-2.php
DET - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-det-2.php
GB - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-gnb-2.php
HOU - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-htx-2.php
IND - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-clt-2.php
JAX - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-jax-2.php
KC - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-kan-2.php
MIA - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-mia-2.php
MIN - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-min-2.php
NE - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-nwe-2.php
NO - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-nor-2.php
NYG - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-nyg-2.php
NYJ - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-nyj-2.php
OAK - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-rai-2.php
PHI - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-phi-2.php
PIT - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-pit-2.php
SD - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-sdg-2.php
SEA - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-sea-2.php
SF - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-sfo-2.php
STL - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-ram-2.php
TB - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-tam-2.php
TEN - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-oti-2.php
WAS - http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-was-2.php
Here is the page full of the teams, including the red zone targets. I would encourage all to look at the targets for each team. Each link above has several years of target info. I think this is where you find sleeper prospects.
http://www.footballguys.com/05targetdetails.php
Hope this helps.
wannabee
Footballguy
I was looking at some old drafts and thought I would share. This is valuable for research and I think it is interesting to see who was picked before whom. Many times, I look for a link for who was drafted when and at what pick.
Here is the link to most of the info:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/drafts
I will paste the 2005 draft below:
Round 1
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
1 San Francisco Alex Smith QB Utah
2 Miami Ronnie Brown RB Auburn
3 Cleveland Braylon Edwards WR Michigan
4 Chicago Cedric Benson RB Texas
5 Tampa Bay Carnell Williams RB Auburn
6 Tennessee Adam Jones CB West Virginia
7 Minnesota Troy Williamson WR South Carolina
8 Arizona Antrel Rolle CB Miami
9 Washington Carlos Rogers CB Auburn
10 Detroit Mike Williams WR Southern California
11 Dallas DeMarcus Ware OLB Troy
12 San Diego Shawne Merriman OLB Maryland
13 New Orleans Jammal Brown T Oklahoma
14 Carolina Thomas Davis SS Georgia
15 Kansas City Derrick Johnson OLB Texas
16 Houston Travis Johnson DE Florida State
17 Cincinnati David Pollack OLB Georgia
18 Minnesota Erasmus James DE Wisconsin
19 St. Louis Alex Barron T Florida State
20 Dallas Marcus Spears DE Louisiana State
21 Jacksonville Matt Jones WR Arkansas
22 Baltimore Mark Clayton WR Oklahoma
23 Oakland Fabian Washington CB Nebraska
24 Green Bay Aaron Rodgers QB California
25 Washington Jason Campbell QB Auburn
26 Seattle Chris Spencer C Mississippi
27 Atlanta Roddy White WR Ala.-Birmingham
28 San Diego Luis Castillo DE Northwestern
29 Indianapolis Marlin Jackson CB Michigan
30 Pittsburgh Heath Miller TE Virginia
31 Philadelphia Mike Patterson DT Southern California
32 New England Logan Mankins G Fresno State
Round 2
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
33 San Francisco David Baas G Michigan
34 Cleveland Brodney Pool SS Oklahoma
35 Philadelphia Reggie Brown WR Georgia
36 Tampa Bay Barrett Ruud MLB Nebraska
37 Detroit Shaun Cody DT Southern California
38 Oakland Stanford Routt CB Houston
39 Chicago Mark Bradley WR Oklahoma
40 New Orleans Josh Bullocks FS Nebraska
41 Tennessee Michael Roos T Eastern Washington
42 Dallas Kevin Burnett OLB Tennessee
43 N.Y. Giants Corey Webster CB Louisiana State
44 Arizona J.J. Arrington RB California
45 Seattle Lofa Tatupu MLB Southern California
46 Miami Matt Roth DE Iowa
47 N.Y. Jets Mike Nugent K Ohio State
48 Cincinnati Odell Thurman MLB Georgia
49 Minnesota Marcus Johnson G Mississippi
50 St. Louis Ron Bartell CB Howard
51 Green Bay Nick Collins FS Bethune-Cookman
52 Jacksonville Khalif Barnes T Washington
53 Baltimore Dan Cody LB Oklahoma
54 Carolina Eric Shelton RB Louisville
55 Buffalo Roscoe Parrish WR Miami
56 Denver Darrent Williams CB Oklahoma State
57 N.Y. Jets Justin Miller CB Clemson
58 Green Bay Terrence Murphy WR Texas A&M
59 Atlanta Jonathan Babineaux DT Iowa
60 Indianapolis Kelvin Hayden CB Illinois
61 San Diego Vincent Jackson WR Northern Colorado
62 Pittsburgh Bryant McFadden CB Florida State
63 Philadelphia Matt McCoy OLB San Diego State
64 Baltimore Adam Terry T Syracuse
Round 3
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
65 San Francisco Frank Gore RB Miami
66 St. Louis Oshiomogho Atogwe FS Stanford
67 Cleveland Charlie Frye QB Akron
68 Tennessee Courtney Roby WR Indiana
69 Oakland Andrew Walter QB Arizona State
70 Miami Channing Crowder MLB Florida
71 Tampa Bay Alex Smith TE Stanford
72 Detroit Stanley Wilson CB Stanford
73 Houston Vernand Morency RB Oklahoma State
74 N.Y. Giants Justin Tuck DE Notre Dame
75 Arizona Eric Green CB Virginia Tech
76 Denver Karl Paymah CB Washington State
77 Philadelphia Ryan Moats RB Louisiana Tech
78 Oakland Kirk Morrison MLB San Diego State
79 Carolina Evan Mathis G Alabama
80 Minnesota Dustin Fox S Ohio State
81 St. Louis Richie Incognito G Nebraska
82 New Orleans Alfred Fincher MLB Connecticut
83 Cincinnati Chris Henry WR West Virginia
84 New England Ellis Hobbs CB Iowa State
85 Seattle David Greene QB Georgia
86 Buffalo Kevin Everett TE Miami
87 Jacksonville Scott Starks CB Wisconsin
88 N.Y. Jets Sione Pouha NT Utah
89 Carolina Atiyyah Ellison DT Missouri
90 Atlanta Jordan Beck LB Cal Poly-SLO
91 Tampa Bay Chris Colmer T North Carolina State
92 Indianapolis Vincent Burns DT Kentucky
93 Pittsburgh Trai Essex T Northwestern
94 San Francisco Adam Snyder G Oregon
95 Arizona Darryl Blackstock OLB Virginia
96 Tennessee Brandon Jones WR Oklahoma
97 Denver Domonique Foxworth CB Maryland
98 Seattle LeRoy Hill OLB Clemson
99 Kansas City Dustin Colquitt P Tennessee
100 New England Nick Kaczur T Toledo
101 Denver Maurice Clarett RB Ohio State
Round 4
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
102 Philadelphia Sean Considine SS Iowa
103 Cleveland Antonio Perkins CB Oklahoma
104 Miami Travis Daniels CB Louisiana State
105 Seattle Ray Willis T Florida State
106 Chicago Kyle Orton QB Purdue
107 Tampa Bay Dan Buenning G Wisconsin
108 Tennessee Vincent Fuller FS Virginia Tech
109 Dallas Marion Barber RB Minnesota
110 N.Y. Giants Brandon Jacobs RB Southern Illinois
111 Arizona Elton Brown G Virginia
112 Minnesota Ciatrick Fason RB Florida
113 Tennessee David Stewart G Mississippi State
114 Houston Jerome Mathis WR Hampton
115 Green Bay Marviel Underwood SS San Diego State
116 Kansas City Craphonso Thorpe WR Florida State
117 St. Louis Jerome Carter SS Florida State
118 New Orleans Chase Lyman WR California
119 Cincinnati Eric Ghiaciuc C Central Michigan
120 Washington Manuel White RB UCLA
121 Carolina Stefan LeFors QB Louisville
122 Buffalo Duke Preston G Illinois
123 N.Y. Jets Kerry Rhodes FS Louisville
124 Baltimore Jason Brown C North Carolina
125 Green Bay Brady Poppinga OLB Brigham Young
126 Philadelphia Todd Herremans T Saginaw Valley State
127 Jacksonville Alvin Pearman RB Virginia
128 Atlanta Chauncey Davis DE Florida State
129 Indianapolis Dylan Gandy G Texas Tech
130 San Diego Darren Sproles RB Kansas State
131 Pittsburgh Fred Gibson WR Georgia
132 Dallas Chris Canty DE Virginia
133 New England James Sanders SS Fresno State
134 St. Louis Claude Terrell G New Mexico
135 Indianapolis Matt Giordano SS California
136 Tennessee Roydell Williams WR Tulane
Round 5
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
137 San Francisco Ronald Fields DT Mississippi State
138 Kansas City Boomer Grigsby MLB Illinois State
139 Cleveland David McMillan OLB Kansas
140 Chicago Airese Currie WR Clemson
141 Tampa Bay Donte Nicholson SS Oklahoma
142 Tennessee Damien Nash RB Missouri
143 Green Bay Junius Coston G North Carolina A&T
144 St. Louis Jerome Collins TE Notre Dame
145 Detroit Dan Orlovsky QB Connecticut
146 Philadelphia Trent Cole DE Cincinnati
147 Kansas City Alphonso Hodge CB Miami, O.
148 Indianapolis Jonathan Welsh DE Wisconsin
149 Carolina Adam Seward OLB Nevada-Las Vegas
150 Tennessee Daniel Loper T Texas Tech
151 Houston Drew Hodgdon C Arizona State
152 New Orleans Adrian McPherson QB Florida State
153 Cincinnati Adam Kieft T Central Michigan
154 Washington Robert McCune LB Louisville
155 Tampa Bay Larry Brackins WR Pearl River JC
156 Buffalo Eric King CB Wake Forest
157 Jacksonville Gerald Sensabaugh SS North Carolina
158 Baltimore Justin Green FB Montana
159 Seattle Jeb Huckeba DE Arkansas
160 Atlanta Michael Boley OLB Southern Mississippi
161 N.Y. Jets Andre Maddox DB North Carolina State
162 Miami Anthony Alabi T Texas Christian
163 Atlanta Frank Omiyale T Tennessee Tech
164 San Diego Wesley Britt T Alabama
165 Indianapolis Rob Hunt C North Dakota State
166 Pittsburgh Rian Wallace ILB Temple
167 Green Bay Michael Hawkins CB Oklahoma
168 Arizona Lance Mitchell MLB Oklahoma
169 Carolina Geoff Hangartner C Texas A&M
170 New England Ryan Claridge OLB Nevada-Las Vegas
171 Carolina Ben Emanuel S UCLA
172 Philadelphia Scott Young G Brigham Young
173 Indianapolis Tyjuan Hagler LB Cincinnati
174 San Francisco Rasheed Marshall WR West Virginia
Round 6
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
175 Oakland Anttaj Hawthorne DT Wisconsin
176 Cleveland Nick Speegle OLB New Mexico
177 San Diego Wes Sims G Oklahoma
178 Tampa Bay Anthony Bryant DT Alabama
179 Tennessee Bo Scaife TE Texas
180 Green Bay Mike Montgomery DE Texas A&M
181 Chicago Chris Harris FS Louisiana-Monroe
182 N.Y. Jets Cedric Houston RB Tennessee
183 Washington Jared Newberry LB Stanford
184 Detroit Bill Swancutt DE Oregon State
185 Jacksonville Chad Owens WR Hawaii
186 N.Y. Giants Eric Moore DE Florida State
187 Kansas City Will Svitek T Stanford
188 Houston C.C. Brown SS Louisiana-Lafayette
189 Carolina Jovan Haye DE Vanderbilt
190 Cincinnati Tab Perry WR UCLA
191 Minnesota C.J. Mosley DT Missouri
192 St. Louis Dante' Ridgeway WR Ball State
193 New Orleans Jason Jefferson DT Wisconsin
194 Jacksonville Patrick Thomas OLB North Carolina State
195 Green Bay Craig Bragg WR UCLA
196 Seattle Tony Jackson RB Iowa
197 Buffalo Justin Geisinger G Vanderbilt
198 N.Y. Jets Joel Dreessen TE Colorado State
199 Kansas City Khari Long DE Baylor
200 Denver Chris Myers G Miami
201 Atlanta DeAndra Cobb RB Michigan State
202 Indianapolis Dave Rayner K Michigan State
203 Cleveland Andrew Hoffman DE Virginia
204 Pittsburgh Chris Kemoeatu G Utah
205 San Francisco Derrick Johnson CB Washington
206 Detroit Johnathan Goddard LB Marshall
207 Carolina Joe Berger G Michigan Tech
208 Dallas Justin Beriault FS Ball State
209 Dallas Rob Petitti T Pittsburgh
210 St. Louis Reggie Hodges P Ball State
211 Philadelphia Calvin Armstrong T Washington State
212 Oakland Ryan Riddle OLB California
213 Baltimore Derek Anderson QB Oregon State
214 Oakland Pete McMahon T Iowa
Round 7
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
215 San Francisco Daven Holly CB Cincinnati
216 Miami Kevin Vickerson DT Michigan State
217 Cleveland Jon Dunn T Virginia Tech
218 Tennessee Reynaldo Hill CB Florida
219 Minnesota Adrian Ward DB Texas-El Paso
220 Chicago Rod Wilson LB South Carolina
221 Tampa Bay Rick Razzano FB Mississippi
222 Washington Nehemiah Broughton FB Citadel
223 San Francisco Marcus Maxwell WR Oregon
224 Dallas Jay Ratliff DE Auburn
225 Tampa Bay Paris Warren WR Utah
226 Arizona LeRon McCoy WR Indiana, Pa.
227 Houston Kenneth Pettway LB Grambling
228 Pittsburgh Shaun Nua DE Brigham Young
229 Kansas City James Kilian QB Tulsa
230 New England Matt Cassel QB Southern California
231 Tampa Bay Hamza Abdullah DB Washington State
232 New Orleans Jimmy Verdon DE Arizona State
233 Cincinnati Jonathan Fanene DE Utah
234 Baltimore Mike Smith LB Texas Tech
235 Seattle Cornelius Wortham LB Alabama
236 Buffalo Lionel Gates RB Louisville
237 Jacksonville Chris Roberson CB Eastern Michigan
238 Kansas City Jeremy Parquet T Southern Mississippi
239 Denver Paul Ernster P Northern Arizona
240 N.Y. Jets Harry Williams WR Tuskegee
241 Atlanta Darrell Shropshire NT South Carolina
242 San Diego Scott Mruczkowski C Bowling Green
243 Indianapolis Anthony Davis RB Wisconsin
244 Pittsburgh Noah Herron RB Northwestern
245 Green Bay Kurt Campbell LB Albany, N.Y.
246 Green Bay William Whitticker G Michigan State
247 Philadelphia Keyonta Marshall DT Grand Valley State
248 San Francisco Patrick Estes T Virginia
249 San Francisco Billy Bajema TE Oklahoma State
250 St. Louis Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Harvard
251 St. Louis Madison Hedgecock FB North Carolina
252 Philadelphia David Bergeron LB Stanford
253 Tampa Bay J.R. Russell WR Louisville
254 Seattle Doug Nienhuis G Oregon State
255 New England Andy Stokes TE William Penn
And here is all of the QBs drafted since 1982 (listed oldest draft to newest):
Draft History
1982
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 4 Art Schlichter QB Ohio State
1 5 Jim McMahon QB Brigham Young
2 44 Oliver Luck QB West Virginia
2 48 Matt Kofler QB San Diego State
4 84 Mike Pagel QB Arizona State
6 149 Mike Kelley QB Georgia Tech
6 154 Mike Machurek QB Idaho State
8 218 Luc Tousignant QB Fairmont State
9 242 Bob Lane QB Louisiana-Monroe
9 251 Bryan Clark QB Michigan State
10 261 Ron Reeves QB Texas Tech
11 282 Steve Michuta QB Grand Valley State
11 291 Bob Holly QB Princeton
11 296 Steve Sandon QB Northern Iowa
12 333 Dan Feraday QB Toronto
1983
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 John Elway QB Stanford
1 7 Todd Blackledge QB Penn State
1 14 Jim Kelly QB Miami
1 15 Tony Eason QB Illinois
1 24 Ken O'Brien QB Cal-Davis
1 27 Dan Marino QB Pittsburgh
5 137 Jeff Christensen QB Eastern Illinois
6 162 Reggie Collier QB Southern Mississippi
6 168 Babe Laufenberg QB Indiana
8 197 Gary Kubiak QB Texas A&M
10 267 Tom Ramsey QB UCLA
10 272 Bruce Mathison QB Nebraska
11 280 Jim Bob Taylor QB Georgia Tech
12 311 Clete Casper QB Washington State
12 312 David Mangrum QB Baylor
12 333 Scott Lindquist QB Northern Arizona
1984
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
2 38 Boomer Esiason QB Maryland
3 59 Jeff Hostetler QB West Virginia
3 80 Rick McIvor QB Texas
3 83 Jay Schroeder QB UCLA
5 113 Steve Pelluer QB Washington
5 138 Dean May QB Louisville
6 148 Ben Bennett QB Duke
6 153 Randy Wright QB Wisconsin
6 158 Terry Nugent QB Colorado State
6 160 John Witkowski QB Columbia
7 191 Scott Campbell QB Purdue
9 244 Mark Casale QB Montclair State
11 281 Blair Kiel QB Notre Dame
11 296 Kyle Mackey QB Texas A&M-Commerce
12 336 Randy Essington QB Colorado
1985
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
2 37 Randall Cunningham QB Nevada-Las Vegas
3 57 Frank Reich QB Maryland
6 142 Steve Bono QB UCLA
6 143 Rusty Hilger QB Oklahoma State
6 168 Scott Barry QB Cal-Davis
9 232 Steve Calabria QB Colgate
9 234 Paul Berner QB Pacific
10 269 Buddy Funck QB New Mexico
10 277 John Conner QB Arizona
11 285 Doug Flutie QB Boston College
11 294 Joe Shield QB Trinity, Conn.
1986
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 3 Jim Everett QB Purdue
1 12 Chuck Long QB Iowa
2 47 Jack Trudeau QB Illinois
3 67 Bubby Brister QB Louisiana-Monroe
3 71 Hugh Millen QB Washington
3 72 Robbie Bosco QB Brigham Young
4 99 Doug Gaynor QB Cal State-Long Beach
6 146 Mark Rypien QB Washington State
6 150 Stan Gelbaugh QB Maryland
7 174 Mike Norseth QB Kansas
10 274 Jeff Wickersham QB Louisiana State
11 280 Chris Hegg QB N.E. Missouri
11 291 David Norrie QB UCLA
12 312 Kent Austin QB Mississippi
12 313 Brian McClure QB Bowling Green
12 316 Steve Bradley QB Indiana
1987
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 Vinny Testaverde QB Miami
1 6 Kelly Stouffer QB Colorado State
1 13 Chris Miller QB Oregon
1 26 Jim Harbaugh QB Michigan
3 64 Cody Carlson QB Baylor
4 88 Mark Vlasic QB Iowa
4 98 Rich Gannon QB Delaware
4 110 Steve Beuerlein QB Notre Dame
7 180 Kevin Sweeney QB Fresno State
7 186 Doug Hudson QB Nicholls State
8 216 Sammy Garza QB Texas-El Paso
9 232 Ken Lambiotte QB William & Mary
10 255 Don Majkowski QB Virginia
10 275 John Paye QB Stanford
11 295 Brent Pease QB Montana
11 307 Dave Walter QB Michigan Tech
12 313 Mike Shula QB Alabama
12 322 Jim Karsatos QB Ohio State
12 327 Bill Ransdell QB Kentucky
1988
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
3 76 Chris Chandler QB Washington
6 149 Don McPherson QB Syracuse
6 151 Scott Secules QB Virginia
6 159 Stan Humphries QB Louisiana-Monroe
7 175 Mike Perez QB San Jose State
7 180 Kerwin Bell QB Florida
10 256 Bud Keyes QB Wisconsin
10 274 Todd Santos QB San Diego State
11 281 Danny McCoin QB Cincinnati
11 282 Danny McManus QB Florida State
11 283 David Weber QB Carroll, Wis.
12 328 Steve Slayden QB Duke
1989
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 Troy Aikman QB UCLA
2 32 Mike Elkins QB Wake Forest
2 51 Billy Joe Tolliver QB Texas Tech
3 74 Anthony Dilweg QB Duke
3 83 Erik Wilhelm QB Oregon State
4 87 Jeff Graham QB Cal State-Long Beach
4 102 Jeff Carlson QB Weber State
6 140 Jeff Francis QB Tennessee
6 141 Rodney Peete QB Southern California
7 192 Brent Snyder QB Utah State
7 195 Terrence Jones QB Tulane
8 202 Paul Singer QB Western Illinois
10 278 Bob Jean QB New Hampshire
11 296 Wayne Johnson QB Georgia
12 323 Steve Taylor QB Nebraska
12 325 Chuck Hartlieb QB Iowa
1990
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 Jeff George QB Illinois
1 7 Andre Ware QB Houston
3 59 Tommy Hodson QB Louisiana State
3 63 Peter Tom Willis QB Florida State
3 70 Neil O'Donnell QB Maryland
4 84 Troy Taylor QB California
4 86 Cary Conklin QB Washington
4 93 Scott Mitchell QB Utah
5 135 Craig Kupp QB Pacific Lutheran
6 138 John Friesz QB Idaho
6 156 Mike Buck QB Maine
8 207 Gerry Gdowski QB Nebraska
9 242 Kirk Baumgartner QB Wisconsin-Stevens Point
9 247 Todd Ellis QB South Carolina
11 296 Clemente Gordon QB Grambling
12 307 Todd Hammel QB Stephen F. Austin
12 311 Gene Benhart QB Western Illinois
12 312 John Gromos QB Vanderbilt
12 317 Major Harris QB West Virginia
12 321 Reggie Slack QB Auburn
1991
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 16 Dan McGwire QB San Diego State
1 24 Todd Marinovich QB Southern California
2 33 Brett Favre QB Southern Mississippi
2 34 Browning Nagle QB Louisville
4 84 Scott Zolak QB Maryland
4 99 Donald Hollas QB Rice
4 106 Bill Musgrave QB Oregon
7 190 Paul Justin QB Arizona State
10 260 Pat O'Hara QB Southern California
11 284 Shawn Moore QB Virginia
12 309 Jeff Bridewell QB Cal-Davis
12 334 Larry Wanke QB John Carroll
1992
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 6 David Klingler QB Houston
1 25 Tommy Maddox QB UCLA
2 40 Matt Blundin QB Virginia
2 46 Tony Sacca QB Penn State
4 86 Craig Erickson QB Miami
4 102 Casey Weldon QB Florida State
4 107 Will Furrer QB Virginia Tech
4 112 Chris Hakel QB William & Mary
6 166 Jeff Blake QB East Carolina
8 211 Kent Graham QB Ohio State
8 220 Bucky Richardson QB Texas A&M
8 222 Mike Pawlawski QB California
9 227 Brad Johnson QB Florida State
9 228 T.J. Rubley QB Tulsa
9 230 Ty Detmer QB Brigham Young
9 242 Darian Hagan QB Colorado
11 296 Mark Barsotti QB Fresno State
12 316 Keithen McCant QB Nebraska
12 318 Cornelius Benton QB Connecticut
12 335 Matt Rodgers QB Iowa
1993
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 Drew Bledsoe QB Washington State
1 2 Rick Mirer QB Notre Dame
3 58 Billy Joe Hobert QB Washington
5 118 Mark Brunell QB Washington
7 192 Gino Torretta QB Miami
8 216 Alex Van Pelt QB Pittsburgh
8 219 Elvis Grbac QB Michigan
8 222 Trent Green QB Indiana
1994
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 3 Heath Shuler QB Tennessee
1 6 Trent Dilfer QB Fresno State
4 111 Perry Klein QB C.W. Post
4 116 Doug Nussmeier QB Idaho
6 178 Jim Miller QB Michigan State
7 197 Gus Frerotte QB Tulsa
7 198 Jay Walker QB Howard
7 199 Steve Matthews QB Memphis
7 208 Glenn Foley QB Boston College
1995
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 3 Steve McNair QB Alcorn State
1 5 Kerry Collins QB Penn State
2 45 Todd Collins QB Michigan
2 60 Kordell Stewart QB Colorado
3 80 Stoney Case QB New Mexico
3 84 Eric Zeier QB Georgia
4 99 Rob Johnson QB Southern California
4 111 Chad May QB Kansas State
4 119 Dave Barr QB California
4 134 Steve Stenstrom QB Stanford
5 160 Jay Barker QB Alabama
6 191 Jerry Colquitt QB Tennessee
6 197 Craig Whelihan QB Pacific
7 213 John Walsh QB Brigham Young
1996
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
2 42 Tony Banks QB Michigan State
3 85 Bobby Hoying QB Ohio State
4 100 Jeff Lewis QB Northern Arizona
4 130 Danny Kanell QB Florida State
6 203 Spence Fischer QB Duke
6 205 Mike Cawley QB James Madison
7 238 Jon Stark QB Trinity, Ill.
7 240 Kyle Wachholtz QB Southern California
1997
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 26 Jim Druckenmiller QB Virginia Tech
2 42 Jake Plummer QB Arizona State
4 99 Danny Wuerffel QB Florida
4 110 Pat Barnes QB California
6 171 Mike Cherry QB Murray State
6 191 Chuck Clements QB Houston
7 204 Tony Graziani QB Oregon
7 207 Koy Detmer QB Colorado
7 234 Wally Richardson QB Penn State
7 237 Tony Corbin QB Sacramento State
7 240 Ronnie McAda QB Army
1998
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 Peyton Manning QB Tennessee
1 2 Ryan Leaf QB Washington State
2 60 Charlie Batch QB Eastern Michigan
3 86 Jonathan Quinn QB Middle Tennessee
3 91 Brian Griese QB Michigan
6 172 John Dutton QB Nevada
6 187 Matt Hasselbeck QB Boston College
7 232 Moses Moreno QB Colorado State
1999
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 Tim Couch QB Kentucky
1 2 Donovan McNabb QB Syracuse
1 3 Akili Smith QB Oregon
1 11 Daunte Culpepper QB Central Florida
1 12 Cade McNown QB UCLA
2 50 Shaun King QB Tulane
3 77 Brock Huard QB Washington
4 101 Joe Germaine QB Ohio State
4 131 Aaron Brooks QB Virginia
5 151 Kevin Daft QB Cal-Davis
7 227 Michael Bishop QB Kansas State
7 239 Chris Greisen QB N.W. Missouri
7 245 Scott Covington QB Miami
2000
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 18 Chad Pennington QB Marshall
3 65 Giovanni Carmazzi QB Hofstra
3 75 Chris Redman QB Louisville
5 163 Tee Martin QB Tennessee
6 168 Marc Bulger QB West Virginia
6 183 Spergon Wynn QB S.W. Texas State
6 199 Tom Brady QB Michigan
6 202 Todd Husak QB Stanford
6 205 JaJuan Seider QB Florida A&M
7 212 Tim Rattay QB Louisiana Tech
7 214 Jarious Jackson QB Notre Dame
7 234 Joe Hamilton QB Georgia Tech
2001
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 Michael Vick QB Virginia Tech
2 32 Drew Brees QB Purdue
2 53 Quincy Carter QB Georgia
2 59 Marques Tuiasosopo QB Washington
4 106 Chris Weinke QB Florida State
4 109 Sage Rosenfels QB Iowa State
4 125 Jesse Palmer QB Florida
5 149 Mike McMahon QB Rutgers
5 155 A.J. Feeley QB Oregon
6 172 Josh Booty QB Louisiana State
6 177 Josh Heupel QB Oklahoma
2002
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 David Carr QB Fresno State
1 3 Joey Harrington QB Oregon
1 32 Patrick Ramsey QB Tulane
3 81 Josh McCown QB Sam Houston State
4 108 David Garrard QB East Carolina
4 117 Rohan Davey QB Louisiana State
5 137 Randy Fasani QB Stanford
5 158 Kurt Kittner QB Illinois
5 163 Brandon Doman QB Brigham Young
5 164 Craig Nall QB Northwestern State, La.
6 186 J.T. O'Sullivan QB Cal-Davis
7 216 Seth Burford QB Cal Poly-SLO
7 232 Jeff Kelly QB Southern Mississippi
7 236 Wes Pate QB Stephen F. Austin
2003
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 Carson Palmer QB Southern California
1 7 Byron Leftwich QB Marshall
1 19 Kyle Boller QB California
1 22 Rex Grossman QB Florida
3 88 Dave Ragone QB Louisville
3 97 Chris Simms QB Texas
4 110 Seneca Wallace QB Iowa State
5 163 Brian St. Pierre QB Boston College
6 192 Drew Henson QB Michigan
6 200 Brooks Bollinger QB Wisconsin
6 201 Kliff Kingsbury QB Texas Tech
7 232 Gibran Hamdan QB Indiana
7 241 Ken Dorsey QB Miami
2004
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 Eli Manning QB Mississippi
1 4 Philip Rivers QB North Carolina State
1 11 Ben Roethlisberger QB Miami, O.
1 22 J.P. Losman QB Tulane
3 90 Matt Schaub QB Virginia
4 106 Luke McCown QB Louisiana Tech
5 148 Craig Krenzel QB Ohio State
6 185 Andy Hall QB Delaware
6 187 Josh Harris QB Bowling Green
6 193 Jim Sorgi QB Wisconsin
6 201 Jeff Smoker QB Michigan State
7 202 John Navarre QB Michigan
7 217 Cody Pickett QB Washington
7 218 Casey Bramlet QB Wyoming
7 225 Matt Mauck QB Louisiana State
7 248 B.J. Symons QB Texas Tech
7 250 Bradlee Van Pelt QB Colorado State
2005
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 Alex Smith QB Utah
1 24 Aaron Rodgers QB California
1 25 Jason Campbell QB Auburn
3 67 Charlie Frye QB Akron
3 69 Andrew Walter QB Arizona State
3 85 David Greene QB Georgia
4 106 Kyle Orton QB Purdue
4 121 Stefan LeFors QB Louisville
5 145 Dan Orlovsky QB Connecticut
5 152 Adrian McPherson QB Florida State
6 213 Derek Anderson QB Oregon State
7 229 James Kilian QB Tulsa
7 230 Matt Cassel QB Southern California
7 250 Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Harvard
Here is the link to most of the info:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/drafts
I will paste the 2005 draft below:
Round 1
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
1 San Francisco Alex Smith QB Utah
2 Miami Ronnie Brown RB Auburn
3 Cleveland Braylon Edwards WR Michigan
4 Chicago Cedric Benson RB Texas
5 Tampa Bay Carnell Williams RB Auburn
6 Tennessee Adam Jones CB West Virginia
7 Minnesota Troy Williamson WR South Carolina
8 Arizona Antrel Rolle CB Miami
9 Washington Carlos Rogers CB Auburn
10 Detroit Mike Williams WR Southern California
11 Dallas DeMarcus Ware OLB Troy
12 San Diego Shawne Merriman OLB Maryland
13 New Orleans Jammal Brown T Oklahoma
14 Carolina Thomas Davis SS Georgia
15 Kansas City Derrick Johnson OLB Texas
16 Houston Travis Johnson DE Florida State
17 Cincinnati David Pollack OLB Georgia
18 Minnesota Erasmus James DE Wisconsin
19 St. Louis Alex Barron T Florida State
20 Dallas Marcus Spears DE Louisiana State
21 Jacksonville Matt Jones WR Arkansas
22 Baltimore Mark Clayton WR Oklahoma
23 Oakland Fabian Washington CB Nebraska
24 Green Bay Aaron Rodgers QB California
25 Washington Jason Campbell QB Auburn
26 Seattle Chris Spencer C Mississippi
27 Atlanta Roddy White WR Ala.-Birmingham
28 San Diego Luis Castillo DE Northwestern
29 Indianapolis Marlin Jackson CB Michigan
30 Pittsburgh Heath Miller TE Virginia
31 Philadelphia Mike Patterson DT Southern California
32 New England Logan Mankins G Fresno State
Round 2
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
33 San Francisco David Baas G Michigan
34 Cleveland Brodney Pool SS Oklahoma
35 Philadelphia Reggie Brown WR Georgia
36 Tampa Bay Barrett Ruud MLB Nebraska
37 Detroit Shaun Cody DT Southern California
38 Oakland Stanford Routt CB Houston
39 Chicago Mark Bradley WR Oklahoma
40 New Orleans Josh Bullocks FS Nebraska
41 Tennessee Michael Roos T Eastern Washington
42 Dallas Kevin Burnett OLB Tennessee
43 N.Y. Giants Corey Webster CB Louisiana State
44 Arizona J.J. Arrington RB California
45 Seattle Lofa Tatupu MLB Southern California
46 Miami Matt Roth DE Iowa
47 N.Y. Jets Mike Nugent K Ohio State
48 Cincinnati Odell Thurman MLB Georgia
49 Minnesota Marcus Johnson G Mississippi
50 St. Louis Ron Bartell CB Howard
51 Green Bay Nick Collins FS Bethune-Cookman
52 Jacksonville Khalif Barnes T Washington
53 Baltimore Dan Cody LB Oklahoma
54 Carolina Eric Shelton RB Louisville
55 Buffalo Roscoe Parrish WR Miami
56 Denver Darrent Williams CB Oklahoma State
57 N.Y. Jets Justin Miller CB Clemson
58 Green Bay Terrence Murphy WR Texas A&M
59 Atlanta Jonathan Babineaux DT Iowa
60 Indianapolis Kelvin Hayden CB Illinois
61 San Diego Vincent Jackson WR Northern Colorado
62 Pittsburgh Bryant McFadden CB Florida State
63 Philadelphia Matt McCoy OLB San Diego State
64 Baltimore Adam Terry T Syracuse
Round 3
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
65 San Francisco Frank Gore RB Miami
66 St. Louis Oshiomogho Atogwe FS Stanford
67 Cleveland Charlie Frye QB Akron
68 Tennessee Courtney Roby WR Indiana
69 Oakland Andrew Walter QB Arizona State
70 Miami Channing Crowder MLB Florida
71 Tampa Bay Alex Smith TE Stanford
72 Detroit Stanley Wilson CB Stanford
73 Houston Vernand Morency RB Oklahoma State
74 N.Y. Giants Justin Tuck DE Notre Dame
75 Arizona Eric Green CB Virginia Tech
76 Denver Karl Paymah CB Washington State
77 Philadelphia Ryan Moats RB Louisiana Tech
78 Oakland Kirk Morrison MLB San Diego State
79 Carolina Evan Mathis G Alabama
80 Minnesota Dustin Fox S Ohio State
81 St. Louis Richie Incognito G Nebraska
82 New Orleans Alfred Fincher MLB Connecticut
83 Cincinnati Chris Henry WR West Virginia
84 New England Ellis Hobbs CB Iowa State
85 Seattle David Greene QB Georgia
86 Buffalo Kevin Everett TE Miami
87 Jacksonville Scott Starks CB Wisconsin
88 N.Y. Jets Sione Pouha NT Utah
89 Carolina Atiyyah Ellison DT Missouri
90 Atlanta Jordan Beck LB Cal Poly-SLO
91 Tampa Bay Chris Colmer T North Carolina State
92 Indianapolis Vincent Burns DT Kentucky
93 Pittsburgh Trai Essex T Northwestern
94 San Francisco Adam Snyder G Oregon
95 Arizona Darryl Blackstock OLB Virginia
96 Tennessee Brandon Jones WR Oklahoma
97 Denver Domonique Foxworth CB Maryland
98 Seattle LeRoy Hill OLB Clemson
99 Kansas City Dustin Colquitt P Tennessee
100 New England Nick Kaczur T Toledo
101 Denver Maurice Clarett RB Ohio State
Round 4
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
102 Philadelphia Sean Considine SS Iowa
103 Cleveland Antonio Perkins CB Oklahoma
104 Miami Travis Daniels CB Louisiana State
105 Seattle Ray Willis T Florida State
106 Chicago Kyle Orton QB Purdue
107 Tampa Bay Dan Buenning G Wisconsin
108 Tennessee Vincent Fuller FS Virginia Tech
109 Dallas Marion Barber RB Minnesota
110 N.Y. Giants Brandon Jacobs RB Southern Illinois
111 Arizona Elton Brown G Virginia
112 Minnesota Ciatrick Fason RB Florida
113 Tennessee David Stewart G Mississippi State
114 Houston Jerome Mathis WR Hampton
115 Green Bay Marviel Underwood SS San Diego State
116 Kansas City Craphonso Thorpe WR Florida State
117 St. Louis Jerome Carter SS Florida State
118 New Orleans Chase Lyman WR California
119 Cincinnati Eric Ghiaciuc C Central Michigan
120 Washington Manuel White RB UCLA
121 Carolina Stefan LeFors QB Louisville
122 Buffalo Duke Preston G Illinois
123 N.Y. Jets Kerry Rhodes FS Louisville
124 Baltimore Jason Brown C North Carolina
125 Green Bay Brady Poppinga OLB Brigham Young
126 Philadelphia Todd Herremans T Saginaw Valley State
127 Jacksonville Alvin Pearman RB Virginia
128 Atlanta Chauncey Davis DE Florida State
129 Indianapolis Dylan Gandy G Texas Tech
130 San Diego Darren Sproles RB Kansas State
131 Pittsburgh Fred Gibson WR Georgia
132 Dallas Chris Canty DE Virginia
133 New England James Sanders SS Fresno State
134 St. Louis Claude Terrell G New Mexico
135 Indianapolis Matt Giordano SS California
136 Tennessee Roydell Williams WR Tulane
Round 5
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
137 San Francisco Ronald Fields DT Mississippi State
138 Kansas City Boomer Grigsby MLB Illinois State
139 Cleveland David McMillan OLB Kansas
140 Chicago Airese Currie WR Clemson
141 Tampa Bay Donte Nicholson SS Oklahoma
142 Tennessee Damien Nash RB Missouri
143 Green Bay Junius Coston G North Carolina A&T
144 St. Louis Jerome Collins TE Notre Dame
145 Detroit Dan Orlovsky QB Connecticut
146 Philadelphia Trent Cole DE Cincinnati
147 Kansas City Alphonso Hodge CB Miami, O.
148 Indianapolis Jonathan Welsh DE Wisconsin
149 Carolina Adam Seward OLB Nevada-Las Vegas
150 Tennessee Daniel Loper T Texas Tech
151 Houston Drew Hodgdon C Arizona State
152 New Orleans Adrian McPherson QB Florida State
153 Cincinnati Adam Kieft T Central Michigan
154 Washington Robert McCune LB Louisville
155 Tampa Bay Larry Brackins WR Pearl River JC
156 Buffalo Eric King CB Wake Forest
157 Jacksonville Gerald Sensabaugh SS North Carolina
158 Baltimore Justin Green FB Montana
159 Seattle Jeb Huckeba DE Arkansas
160 Atlanta Michael Boley OLB Southern Mississippi
161 N.Y. Jets Andre Maddox DB North Carolina State
162 Miami Anthony Alabi T Texas Christian
163 Atlanta Frank Omiyale T Tennessee Tech
164 San Diego Wesley Britt T Alabama
165 Indianapolis Rob Hunt C North Dakota State
166 Pittsburgh Rian Wallace ILB Temple
167 Green Bay Michael Hawkins CB Oklahoma
168 Arizona Lance Mitchell MLB Oklahoma
169 Carolina Geoff Hangartner C Texas A&M
170 New England Ryan Claridge OLB Nevada-Las Vegas
171 Carolina Ben Emanuel S UCLA
172 Philadelphia Scott Young G Brigham Young
173 Indianapolis Tyjuan Hagler LB Cincinnati
174 San Francisco Rasheed Marshall WR West Virginia
Round 6
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
175 Oakland Anttaj Hawthorne DT Wisconsin
176 Cleveland Nick Speegle OLB New Mexico
177 San Diego Wes Sims G Oklahoma
178 Tampa Bay Anthony Bryant DT Alabama
179 Tennessee Bo Scaife TE Texas
180 Green Bay Mike Montgomery DE Texas A&M
181 Chicago Chris Harris FS Louisiana-Monroe
182 N.Y. Jets Cedric Houston RB Tennessee
183 Washington Jared Newberry LB Stanford
184 Detroit Bill Swancutt DE Oregon State
185 Jacksonville Chad Owens WR Hawaii
186 N.Y. Giants Eric Moore DE Florida State
187 Kansas City Will Svitek T Stanford
188 Houston C.C. Brown SS Louisiana-Lafayette
189 Carolina Jovan Haye DE Vanderbilt
190 Cincinnati Tab Perry WR UCLA
191 Minnesota C.J. Mosley DT Missouri
192 St. Louis Dante' Ridgeway WR Ball State
193 New Orleans Jason Jefferson DT Wisconsin
194 Jacksonville Patrick Thomas OLB North Carolina State
195 Green Bay Craig Bragg WR UCLA
196 Seattle Tony Jackson RB Iowa
197 Buffalo Justin Geisinger G Vanderbilt
198 N.Y. Jets Joel Dreessen TE Colorado State
199 Kansas City Khari Long DE Baylor
200 Denver Chris Myers G Miami
201 Atlanta DeAndra Cobb RB Michigan State
202 Indianapolis Dave Rayner K Michigan State
203 Cleveland Andrew Hoffman DE Virginia
204 Pittsburgh Chris Kemoeatu G Utah
205 San Francisco Derrick Johnson CB Washington
206 Detroit Johnathan Goddard LB Marshall
207 Carolina Joe Berger G Michigan Tech
208 Dallas Justin Beriault FS Ball State
209 Dallas Rob Petitti T Pittsburgh
210 St. Louis Reggie Hodges P Ball State
211 Philadelphia Calvin Armstrong T Washington State
212 Oakland Ryan Riddle OLB California
213 Baltimore Derek Anderson QB Oregon State
214 Oakland Pete McMahon T Iowa
Round 7
Sel# Team Player Pos. School
215 San Francisco Daven Holly CB Cincinnati
216 Miami Kevin Vickerson DT Michigan State
217 Cleveland Jon Dunn T Virginia Tech
218 Tennessee Reynaldo Hill CB Florida
219 Minnesota Adrian Ward DB Texas-El Paso
220 Chicago Rod Wilson LB South Carolina
221 Tampa Bay Rick Razzano FB Mississippi
222 Washington Nehemiah Broughton FB Citadel
223 San Francisco Marcus Maxwell WR Oregon
224 Dallas Jay Ratliff DE Auburn
225 Tampa Bay Paris Warren WR Utah
226 Arizona LeRon McCoy WR Indiana, Pa.
227 Houston Kenneth Pettway LB Grambling
228 Pittsburgh Shaun Nua DE Brigham Young
229 Kansas City James Kilian QB Tulsa
230 New England Matt Cassel QB Southern California
231 Tampa Bay Hamza Abdullah DB Washington State
232 New Orleans Jimmy Verdon DE Arizona State
233 Cincinnati Jonathan Fanene DE Utah
234 Baltimore Mike Smith LB Texas Tech
235 Seattle Cornelius Wortham LB Alabama
236 Buffalo Lionel Gates RB Louisville
237 Jacksonville Chris Roberson CB Eastern Michigan
238 Kansas City Jeremy Parquet T Southern Mississippi
239 Denver Paul Ernster P Northern Arizona
240 N.Y. Jets Harry Williams WR Tuskegee
241 Atlanta Darrell Shropshire NT South Carolina
242 San Diego Scott Mruczkowski C Bowling Green
243 Indianapolis Anthony Davis RB Wisconsin
244 Pittsburgh Noah Herron RB Northwestern
245 Green Bay Kurt Campbell LB Albany, N.Y.
246 Green Bay William Whitticker G Michigan State
247 Philadelphia Keyonta Marshall DT Grand Valley State
248 San Francisco Patrick Estes T Virginia
249 San Francisco Billy Bajema TE Oklahoma State
250 St. Louis Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Harvard
251 St. Louis Madison Hedgecock FB North Carolina
252 Philadelphia David Bergeron LB Stanford
253 Tampa Bay J.R. Russell WR Louisville
254 Seattle Doug Nienhuis G Oregon State
255 New England Andy Stokes TE William Penn
And here is all of the QBs drafted since 1982 (listed oldest draft to newest):
Draft History
1982
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 4 Art Schlichter QB Ohio State
1 5 Jim McMahon QB Brigham Young
2 44 Oliver Luck QB West Virginia
2 48 Matt Kofler QB San Diego State
4 84 Mike Pagel QB Arizona State
6 149 Mike Kelley QB Georgia Tech
6 154 Mike Machurek QB Idaho State
8 218 Luc Tousignant QB Fairmont State
9 242 Bob Lane QB Louisiana-Monroe
9 251 Bryan Clark QB Michigan State
10 261 Ron Reeves QB Texas Tech
11 282 Steve Michuta QB Grand Valley State
11 291 Bob Holly QB Princeton
11 296 Steve Sandon QB Northern Iowa
12 333 Dan Feraday QB Toronto
1983
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 John Elway QB Stanford
1 7 Todd Blackledge QB Penn State
1 14 Jim Kelly QB Miami
1 15 Tony Eason QB Illinois
1 24 Ken O'Brien QB Cal-Davis
1 27 Dan Marino QB Pittsburgh
5 137 Jeff Christensen QB Eastern Illinois
6 162 Reggie Collier QB Southern Mississippi
6 168 Babe Laufenberg QB Indiana
8 197 Gary Kubiak QB Texas A&M
10 267 Tom Ramsey QB UCLA
10 272 Bruce Mathison QB Nebraska
11 280 Jim Bob Taylor QB Georgia Tech
12 311 Clete Casper QB Washington State
12 312 David Mangrum QB Baylor
12 333 Scott Lindquist QB Northern Arizona
1984
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
2 38 Boomer Esiason QB Maryland
3 59 Jeff Hostetler QB West Virginia
3 80 Rick McIvor QB Texas
3 83 Jay Schroeder QB UCLA
5 113 Steve Pelluer QB Washington
5 138 Dean May QB Louisville
6 148 Ben Bennett QB Duke
6 153 Randy Wright QB Wisconsin
6 158 Terry Nugent QB Colorado State
6 160 John Witkowski QB Columbia
7 191 Scott Campbell QB Purdue
9 244 Mark Casale QB Montclair State
11 281 Blair Kiel QB Notre Dame
11 296 Kyle Mackey QB Texas A&M-Commerce
12 336 Randy Essington QB Colorado
1985
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
2 37 Randall Cunningham QB Nevada-Las Vegas
3 57 Frank Reich QB Maryland
6 142 Steve Bono QB UCLA
6 143 Rusty Hilger QB Oklahoma State
6 168 Scott Barry QB Cal-Davis
9 232 Steve Calabria QB Colgate
9 234 Paul Berner QB Pacific
10 269 Buddy Funck QB New Mexico
10 277 John Conner QB Arizona
11 285 Doug Flutie QB Boston College
11 294 Joe Shield QB Trinity, Conn.
1986
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 3 Jim Everett QB Purdue
1 12 Chuck Long QB Iowa
2 47 Jack Trudeau QB Illinois
3 67 Bubby Brister QB Louisiana-Monroe
3 71 Hugh Millen QB Washington
3 72 Robbie Bosco QB Brigham Young
4 99 Doug Gaynor QB Cal State-Long Beach
6 146 Mark Rypien QB Washington State
6 150 Stan Gelbaugh QB Maryland
7 174 Mike Norseth QB Kansas
10 274 Jeff Wickersham QB Louisiana State
11 280 Chris Hegg QB N.E. Missouri
11 291 David Norrie QB UCLA
12 312 Kent Austin QB Mississippi
12 313 Brian McClure QB Bowling Green
12 316 Steve Bradley QB Indiana
1987
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 Vinny Testaverde QB Miami
1 6 Kelly Stouffer QB Colorado State
1 13 Chris Miller QB Oregon
1 26 Jim Harbaugh QB Michigan
3 64 Cody Carlson QB Baylor
4 88 Mark Vlasic QB Iowa
4 98 Rich Gannon QB Delaware
4 110 Steve Beuerlein QB Notre Dame
7 180 Kevin Sweeney QB Fresno State
7 186 Doug Hudson QB Nicholls State
8 216 Sammy Garza QB Texas-El Paso
9 232 Ken Lambiotte QB William & Mary
10 255 Don Majkowski QB Virginia
10 275 John Paye QB Stanford
11 295 Brent Pease QB Montana
11 307 Dave Walter QB Michigan Tech
12 313 Mike Shula QB Alabama
12 322 Jim Karsatos QB Ohio State
12 327 Bill Ransdell QB Kentucky
1988
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
3 76 Chris Chandler QB Washington
6 149 Don McPherson QB Syracuse
6 151 Scott Secules QB Virginia
6 159 Stan Humphries QB Louisiana-Monroe
7 175 Mike Perez QB San Jose State
7 180 Kerwin Bell QB Florida
10 256 Bud Keyes QB Wisconsin
10 274 Todd Santos QB San Diego State
11 281 Danny McCoin QB Cincinnati
11 282 Danny McManus QB Florida State
11 283 David Weber QB Carroll, Wis.
12 328 Steve Slayden QB Duke
1989
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 Troy Aikman QB UCLA
2 32 Mike Elkins QB Wake Forest
2 51 Billy Joe Tolliver QB Texas Tech
3 74 Anthony Dilweg QB Duke
3 83 Erik Wilhelm QB Oregon State
4 87 Jeff Graham QB Cal State-Long Beach
4 102 Jeff Carlson QB Weber State
6 140 Jeff Francis QB Tennessee
6 141 Rodney Peete QB Southern California
7 192 Brent Snyder QB Utah State
7 195 Terrence Jones QB Tulane
8 202 Paul Singer QB Western Illinois
10 278 Bob Jean QB New Hampshire
11 296 Wayne Johnson QB Georgia
12 323 Steve Taylor QB Nebraska
12 325 Chuck Hartlieb QB Iowa
1990
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 Jeff George QB Illinois
1 7 Andre Ware QB Houston
3 59 Tommy Hodson QB Louisiana State
3 63 Peter Tom Willis QB Florida State
3 70 Neil O'Donnell QB Maryland
4 84 Troy Taylor QB California
4 86 Cary Conklin QB Washington
4 93 Scott Mitchell QB Utah
5 135 Craig Kupp QB Pacific Lutheran
6 138 John Friesz QB Idaho
6 156 Mike Buck QB Maine
8 207 Gerry Gdowski QB Nebraska
9 242 Kirk Baumgartner QB Wisconsin-Stevens Point
9 247 Todd Ellis QB South Carolina
11 296 Clemente Gordon QB Grambling
12 307 Todd Hammel QB Stephen F. Austin
12 311 Gene Benhart QB Western Illinois
12 312 John Gromos QB Vanderbilt
12 317 Major Harris QB West Virginia
12 321 Reggie Slack QB Auburn
1991
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 16 Dan McGwire QB San Diego State
1 24 Todd Marinovich QB Southern California
2 33 Brett Favre QB Southern Mississippi
2 34 Browning Nagle QB Louisville
4 84 Scott Zolak QB Maryland
4 99 Donald Hollas QB Rice
4 106 Bill Musgrave QB Oregon
7 190 Paul Justin QB Arizona State
10 260 Pat O'Hara QB Southern California
11 284 Shawn Moore QB Virginia
12 309 Jeff Bridewell QB Cal-Davis
12 334 Larry Wanke QB John Carroll
1992
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 6 David Klingler QB Houston
1 25 Tommy Maddox QB UCLA
2 40 Matt Blundin QB Virginia
2 46 Tony Sacca QB Penn State
4 86 Craig Erickson QB Miami
4 102 Casey Weldon QB Florida State
4 107 Will Furrer QB Virginia Tech
4 112 Chris Hakel QB William & Mary
6 166 Jeff Blake QB East Carolina
8 211 Kent Graham QB Ohio State
8 220 Bucky Richardson QB Texas A&M
8 222 Mike Pawlawski QB California
9 227 Brad Johnson QB Florida State
9 228 T.J. Rubley QB Tulsa
9 230 Ty Detmer QB Brigham Young
9 242 Darian Hagan QB Colorado
11 296 Mark Barsotti QB Fresno State
12 316 Keithen McCant QB Nebraska
12 318 Cornelius Benton QB Connecticut
12 335 Matt Rodgers QB Iowa
1993
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 Drew Bledsoe QB Washington State
1 2 Rick Mirer QB Notre Dame
3 58 Billy Joe Hobert QB Washington
5 118 Mark Brunell QB Washington
7 192 Gino Torretta QB Miami
8 216 Alex Van Pelt QB Pittsburgh
8 219 Elvis Grbac QB Michigan
8 222 Trent Green QB Indiana
1994
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 3 Heath Shuler QB Tennessee
1 6 Trent Dilfer QB Fresno State
4 111 Perry Klein QB C.W. Post
4 116 Doug Nussmeier QB Idaho
6 178 Jim Miller QB Michigan State
7 197 Gus Frerotte QB Tulsa
7 198 Jay Walker QB Howard
7 199 Steve Matthews QB Memphis
7 208 Glenn Foley QB Boston College
1995
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 3 Steve McNair QB Alcorn State
1 5 Kerry Collins QB Penn State
2 45 Todd Collins QB Michigan
2 60 Kordell Stewart QB Colorado
3 80 Stoney Case QB New Mexico
3 84 Eric Zeier QB Georgia
4 99 Rob Johnson QB Southern California
4 111 Chad May QB Kansas State
4 119 Dave Barr QB California
4 134 Steve Stenstrom QB Stanford
5 160 Jay Barker QB Alabama
6 191 Jerry Colquitt QB Tennessee
6 197 Craig Whelihan QB Pacific
7 213 John Walsh QB Brigham Young
1996
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
2 42 Tony Banks QB Michigan State
3 85 Bobby Hoying QB Ohio State
4 100 Jeff Lewis QB Northern Arizona
4 130 Danny Kanell QB Florida State
6 203 Spence Fischer QB Duke
6 205 Mike Cawley QB James Madison
7 238 Jon Stark QB Trinity, Ill.
7 240 Kyle Wachholtz QB Southern California
1997
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 26 Jim Druckenmiller QB Virginia Tech
2 42 Jake Plummer QB Arizona State
4 99 Danny Wuerffel QB Florida
4 110 Pat Barnes QB California
6 171 Mike Cherry QB Murray State
6 191 Chuck Clements QB Houston
7 204 Tony Graziani QB Oregon
7 207 Koy Detmer QB Colorado
7 234 Wally Richardson QB Penn State
7 237 Tony Corbin QB Sacramento State
7 240 Ronnie McAda QB Army
1998
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 Peyton Manning QB Tennessee
1 2 Ryan Leaf QB Washington State
2 60 Charlie Batch QB Eastern Michigan
3 86 Jonathan Quinn QB Middle Tennessee
3 91 Brian Griese QB Michigan
6 172 John Dutton QB Nevada
6 187 Matt Hasselbeck QB Boston College
7 232 Moses Moreno QB Colorado State
1999
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 Tim Couch QB Kentucky
1 2 Donovan McNabb QB Syracuse
1 3 Akili Smith QB Oregon
1 11 Daunte Culpepper QB Central Florida
1 12 Cade McNown QB UCLA
2 50 Shaun King QB Tulane
3 77 Brock Huard QB Washington
4 101 Joe Germaine QB Ohio State
4 131 Aaron Brooks QB Virginia
5 151 Kevin Daft QB Cal-Davis
7 227 Michael Bishop QB Kansas State
7 239 Chris Greisen QB N.W. Missouri
7 245 Scott Covington QB Miami
2000
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 18 Chad Pennington QB Marshall
3 65 Giovanni Carmazzi QB Hofstra
3 75 Chris Redman QB Louisville
5 163 Tee Martin QB Tennessee
6 168 Marc Bulger QB West Virginia
6 183 Spergon Wynn QB S.W. Texas State
6 199 Tom Brady QB Michigan
6 202 Todd Husak QB Stanford
6 205 JaJuan Seider QB Florida A&M
7 212 Tim Rattay QB Louisiana Tech
7 214 Jarious Jackson QB Notre Dame
7 234 Joe Hamilton QB Georgia Tech
2001
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 Michael Vick QB Virginia Tech
2 32 Drew Brees QB Purdue
2 53 Quincy Carter QB Georgia
2 59 Marques Tuiasosopo QB Washington
4 106 Chris Weinke QB Florida State
4 109 Sage Rosenfels QB Iowa State
4 125 Jesse Palmer QB Florida
5 149 Mike McMahon QB Rutgers
5 155 A.J. Feeley QB Oregon
6 172 Josh Booty QB Louisiana State
6 177 Josh Heupel QB Oklahoma
2002
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 David Carr QB Fresno State
1 3 Joey Harrington QB Oregon
1 32 Patrick Ramsey QB Tulane
3 81 Josh McCown QB Sam Houston State
4 108 David Garrard QB East Carolina
4 117 Rohan Davey QB Louisiana State
5 137 Randy Fasani QB Stanford
5 158 Kurt Kittner QB Illinois
5 163 Brandon Doman QB Brigham Young
5 164 Craig Nall QB Northwestern State, La.
6 186 J.T. O'Sullivan QB Cal-Davis
7 216 Seth Burford QB Cal Poly-SLO
7 232 Jeff Kelly QB Southern Mississippi
7 236 Wes Pate QB Stephen F. Austin
2003
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 Carson Palmer QB Southern California
1 7 Byron Leftwich QB Marshall
1 19 Kyle Boller QB California
1 22 Rex Grossman QB Florida
3 88 Dave Ragone QB Louisville
3 97 Chris Simms QB Texas
4 110 Seneca Wallace QB Iowa State
5 163 Brian St. Pierre QB Boston College
6 192 Drew Henson QB Michigan
6 200 Brooks Bollinger QB Wisconsin
6 201 Kliff Kingsbury QB Texas Tech
7 232 Gibran Hamdan QB Indiana
7 241 Ken Dorsey QB Miami
2004
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 Eli Manning QB Mississippi
1 4 Philip Rivers QB North Carolina State
1 11 Ben Roethlisberger QB Miami, O.
1 22 J.P. Losman QB Tulane
3 90 Matt Schaub QB Virginia
4 106 Luke McCown QB Louisiana Tech
5 148 Craig Krenzel QB Ohio State
6 185 Andy Hall QB Delaware
6 187 Josh Harris QB Bowling Green
6 193 Jim Sorgi QB Wisconsin
6 201 Jeff Smoker QB Michigan State
7 202 John Navarre QB Michigan
7 217 Cody Pickett QB Washington
7 218 Casey Bramlet QB Wyoming
7 225 Matt Mauck QB Louisiana State
7 248 B.J. Symons QB Texas Tech
7 250 Bradlee Van Pelt QB Colorado State
2005
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 1 Alex Smith QB Utah
1 24 Aaron Rodgers QB California
1 25 Jason Campbell QB Auburn
3 67 Charlie Frye QB Akron
3 69 Andrew Walter QB Arizona State
3 85 David Greene QB Georgia
4 106 Kyle Orton QB Purdue
4 121 Stefan LeFors QB Louisville
5 145 Dan Orlovsky QB Connecticut
5 152 Adrian McPherson QB Florida State
6 213 Derek Anderson QB Oregon State
7 229 James Kilian QB Tulsa
7 230 Matt Cassel QB Southern California
7 250 Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Harvard
Last edited by a moderator:
THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA
Footballguy
Ok wannabees
I got another one.
I got a dynasty draft coming up and I wont say what pick i have in here, but just to let you know its not 1-4. its a PPR dynasty draft and im having the hardest time justifying guys of there draft spots.
Hey we all know EDGE, TIKI, and WESTY are ppr top dawgs, but they hardly ever go in the 1st round of a PPR dynasty draft.
Lamont Jordan in interesting in a PPR and to me he seems to really warrent his draft selection. What has Brown, Bush, Caddy and SJax done so far that there more valuable than PPR STUDS like S.Smith, Fitz, Holt, Chad, Boldin and even Moss and TO for that matter.
Also rb like Rudi, Mcgahee just dont seem to fit for a PPR although they are servicable. DD is hurting right now and guys like JJ and KJ stock has fallen a bit also.
With all that being said...who are the BEST 1.05-2.12 Players to draft with the right ammount of Production/Potential/Value/.
1.05
1.06
1.07
1.08
1.09
1.10
1.11
1.12
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
2.05
2.06
2.07
2.08
2.09
2.10
2.11
2.12
Fill in these blanks and let me know who you would draft in those spots ans more importantly............WHY?
Also whats the best spot to be in also.
Thanks alot, you ok with me my man!
I got another one.
I got a dynasty draft coming up and I wont say what pick i have in here, but just to let you know its not 1-4. its a PPR dynasty draft and im having the hardest time justifying guys of there draft spots.
Hey we all know EDGE, TIKI, and WESTY are ppr top dawgs, but they hardly ever go in the 1st round of a PPR dynasty draft.
Lamont Jordan in interesting in a PPR and to me he seems to really warrent his draft selection. What has Brown, Bush, Caddy and SJax done so far that there more valuable than PPR STUDS like S.Smith, Fitz, Holt, Chad, Boldin and even Moss and TO for that matter.
Also rb like Rudi, Mcgahee just dont seem to fit for a PPR although they are servicable. DD is hurting right now and guys like JJ and KJ stock has fallen a bit also.
With all that being said...who are the BEST 1.05-2.12 Players to draft with the right ammount of Production/Potential/Value/.
1.05
1.06
1.07
1.08
1.09
1.10
1.11
1.12
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
2.05
2.06
2.07
2.08
2.09
2.10
2.11
2.12
Fill in these blanks and let me know who you would draft in those spots ans more importantly............WHY?
Also whats the best spot to be in also.
Thanks alot, you ok with me my man!
wannabee
Footballguy
What we know: 12 teams, dynasty, PPRAssumption: Start 1 QB, 2-3 RB , 3-4 WR, 1-2 TE
Assumption: You can trade down, but the top 4 owners will not let you trade up.
I will try to answer all of your questions, but in a different way. I choose to target the players I want, and not fool with the others.
If I drew 1.05 or 1.06, the choices, imo, are to take Bush or trade down. No other RB warrants that pick, imo. But, the good news is that there are some who have some crazy man-love for Caddy, Brown, and Jackson who would be looking to move up. There are 2-5 RBs I would be happy with coming out of the fist 15 picks with, so trading down does not hurt at all ..... plus you get extra picks. Do not underestimate the love some have for Caddy, especially.
If I drew 1.07-1.09, I would look for one of Jordan, Westbrook, Brown, or Jackson. But, I think I might still try to trade down first. Each of these four RBs have enough question marks that you can trade down and minimize the risk.
If I drew 1.10-1.12, I would avoid the WR/WR like the plague. I know it looks sexy since in PPR many of the WRs will outscore most RBs not in top 5-8. But, try to trade Holt (who is a great PPR WR) for a RB. It is difficult. In PPR, I think it is easier to find a Driver or Mason to produce 90% of Holt (CJ or SS) than it is to find a RB to produce close to even Westbrook. Also, since Westbrook usually goes in the 2nd round, I might try to trade or hope to get a Jordan (or Brown) in first and Westbrook in 2nd. Again, even at this point, I might consider trading down (eg, 1.10 and 4th for 2.06 and 3.07). If so, I would be happy with Westbrook and Holt (or Fitz, SSmith, or CJ) out of the first two rounds, especially gaining another 3rd rounder. I also might take Bush here, if he is available.
In PPR leagues, Edge and Westbrook are the only RBs I would consider in the top half of the 2nd round. I liked Davis, but the injuries scare me. In the 2nd round, after getting a strong PPR RB, I think WR offers the most value. The three I like the best are CJ, Smith, and Holt. I see a strong start to a draft if someone can come out of the first two rounds with a strong RB (Jordan, Brown, Jackson, etc) and a top WR.
About pick 18-20, the talent starts dropping. At this point, assuming that four WRs are gone, the best talent on the board is usually Gates, Willis, or Boldin. I really like Gates for value in the late 2nd round. I have the rationale as to why earlier in this thread. Over the last two years, with PPR scoring, only 3 WRs have outscored him in both years. That is crazy. Also, depending on how much you want to "win now" Tiki is available.
As you can tell by me not listing very many names above, I think many players are overvalued so I avoid them.
The players I can see targetting, along with which pick they become great value:
Jordan 1.07 (I have seen one PPR draft that he went 2.04 - crazy)
Brown 1.08
Jackson 1.10
Westbrook 2.01
CJohnson 2.03
SSMith 2.04
Holt 2.05
Boldin 2.07
Willis 2.07
Gates 2.09
But, to answer your original question, here is who I would pick at the following picks:
1.05 - I would try to trade down. If not, I take Jordan if I want to win now or Bush to build for future.
1.06 - Jordan. His reception totals last year (73) is incredible. Only worry is the 3.8 ypc. Also, no certainty as to repeating the TDs
1.07 - Jordan
1.08 - Brown. I like Brown's all-around game. He was touted as a good receiver coming out of college. And, I am excited about the future of the Miami offense.
1.09 - Brown.
1.10 - Jackson. Have to think that Linehan will run more. Jackson has to stay healthy.
1.11 - Jackson.
1.12 - Jackson
2.01 - Westbrook. I love the catch totals and the way he is used in the offense. I expect a great year with TO gone. He is really the RB1 and WR1.
2.02 - Westbrook
2.03 - CJohnson. Palmer's improved health has made me optimistic.
2.04 - SSmith. I see Key helping some and the Panthers throwing even more in 2005 due to uncertainty in running game (oft-injured Foster and rook DW, with retirement of Davis)
2.05 - Holt. Still young (29, iirc) and is a proven stud in PPR. Linehan helped Chambers' numbers, and I am optimistic for Holt.
2.06 - Boldin. In PPR, assuming he can get past his knee issues, is a stud. He catches a ton of balls.
2.07 - Willis. I see Willis as a good RB2, but limited in PPR. THe Buff offense will be terrible this year which will limit Willis' 2005 production. I do expect WIllis to get a ton of carries which should help.
2.08 - Willis.
2.09 - Gates. His PPR production of 80+ catches, 1000+ yds, and 10+ TDs gives you such an advantage over your opponents each week. The three things that are important about drafting Gates is: a. need to draft well at other positions since you used a high pick on Gates, b. no need to address TE so the middle rounder can be used to address WR, and c. you might have a RBBC for RB2 to overcome the not drafting a RB in round 2.
2.10
2.11
2.12
I hope this helps. Feel free to ask follow up questions.
THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA
Footballguy
right on POINT!!!!!!!! (as usual)
Hey im sitting at 1.09...(lol) I was thinking of moving up to 1.05 and droping down to 2.08, to grab Bush and maybe Gates, but if i stay as i am im looking at (Jordan Fitz Westy S.Smith Holt) as guys im considering for my top 2 picks. 1.09 and 2.04
Hey im sitting at 1.09...(lol) I was thinking of moving up to 1.05 and droping down to 2.08, to grab Bush and maybe Gates, but if i stay as i am im looking at (Jordan Fitz Westy S.Smith Holt) as guys im considering for my top 2 picks. 1.09 and 2.04
wannabee
Footballguy
Let me offer some things I have noticed from looking at dynasty drafts:1. Do not take a WR in first round. You can get Holt in 2nd. Boldin is available then, too. A first round RB and Holt > Fitz and second round RB.
2. I would first look to either trade into top 4 or trade down, possibly out of first round. I do not think Bush at 1.05 presents a ton of value. I say this because you are basically saying that you are drafting for the future. In an earlier post in this thread, I posted a draft, of which I think was a perfect draft, by Seattle Stars (or Ninerfan - his FBG name). Was he lucky certain players fell to him? YES! But, value does fall, and imo, the players from 5-20 are not a ton different in value. This is why I say to try to trade down. Most that trade down get a trade like: 1.09 and 5.09 for 2.06 and 3.07. The other way, trading up, is expensive, but I think it is well worth it. It might be a trade like: 1.09 and 4.05 for 1.04 and 8.05. I think the difference in player's value from first round overcomes this.
3. Gates becomes better value, obviously, the later he is taken.
The following is the season-ending fantasy points for PPR leagues:
http://www.insidethestats.com/index.php?po...ats&statstype=1
Notice how the big studs outscored the other good RBs. The big 3 RBs doubled the fantasy points of Caddy. I realize that is shocking to most.
Good luck.
THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA
Footballguy
Year Ninerfan is pretty good, He's in my league i commish and i play with him in Maniacs.
But to note this....(let me knowing if i diggin too much) If Jordan is gone and im left with either Caddy or Brown which i highly doubt isnt Fitz a better PPR player than them...or lets say Steve Smith......
Actually i have Fitz as my #6 (ppr) dynasty ranked player....you should know who are my top 5 easy. that being said i also have 2 other wr's that finish off my top 12 ppr rankings.....So maybe its just that i think some of the other rb's are just going high cause there young...atleast all my wr's i have ranked would have produced in the past for sure.
What i be called NUTZ if my 1st 5 picks were:
1.09 Fitz
2.04 T.Holt
3.08 R.Wayne
4.05 H.Ward
5.08 W.Dunn
6.05 F.Gore
7.08 Gonzo
8.05 M.Barber
(original spot was 8) Anyways...Would this be that horrible??? I always like to wait to get good value on Qb's so im not a fan of taking them high.....Unless they present a great value. Draft is 24 rounds....so would that be a poor stragedy and why? Sure i dont have a stud rb, but as you can see i will be running the Run and Shoot offense....And i just dont think most rb present that much value where they are getting drafted in a ppr league...
I have only done 1 ppr draft before so maybe its not my thing, but i did alot of trades and move downs and i still came out with this (now i shouldnt be that productive with me sitting on 3 future 1st rounders and a future 2nd but i think this team will compete and have some nice picks in the future)
Boller, Kyle BAL QB
Brooks, Aaron OAK QB *starter
Clemens, Kellen NYJ QB *prospect
Harrington, Joey MIA QB *backup
Nall, Craig BUF QB
Simms, Chris TBB QB
Addai, Joseph IND RB *potential starter
Calhoun, Brian DET RB *nice prospect
Dunn, Warrick ATL RB *starter
Fisher, Tony STL RB
Gore, Frank SFO RB *potential starter
Green, William CLE RB
Morency, Vernand HOU RB *nice prospect
Perry, Chris CIN RB *great dynasty prospect for PPR/possible spot starter
Robinson, Michael SFO RB *prospect
Vickers, Lawrence CLE RB *super super sleeper, I cut his hair!!
Battle, Arnaz SFO WR *prospect
Crayton, Patrick DAL WR *prospect
Holt, Torry STL WR *starter wr1
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR *starter wr3
Mason, Derrick BAL WR *starter wr4
Muhammad, Muhsin CHI WR *potential starter wr5
Thorpe, Craphonso KCC WR
Williams, Roy DET WR *starter wr2
Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE *starter
Troupe, Ben TEN TE *backup/spot starter
Vanderjagt, Mike DAL PK
Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def
Giants, New York NYG Def
So it looks like i have have a lineup of:
A.Brooks
W.Dunn
Addai/or Gore for rb2
Holt
Roy
Housh
D.Mason
Gonzo
K
Def
with guys that might play in Troupe, Mushin C.Perry on certian matchups. Showing you is to show u i do believe in Run and Shoot when it comes to PPR. My top 4 wr's averaged 21.2, 12.1 (but should be alot better this year) 16.4 and 13fp/g...my rb1 also average 13fp/g which is what most/probaly what most of those 2nd year rb's #'s will be close too. I dont know wannabees but it seems to me wr's is the way to go.
and if i did actually draft a crazy team like i mentioned above my wr's would have some explosive #'s as well as my total team scoring...
whats your take on it?
But to note this....(let me knowing if i diggin too much) If Jordan is gone and im left with either Caddy or Brown which i highly doubt isnt Fitz a better PPR player than them...or lets say Steve Smith......
Actually i have Fitz as my #6 (ppr) dynasty ranked player....you should know who are my top 5 easy. that being said i also have 2 other wr's that finish off my top 12 ppr rankings.....So maybe its just that i think some of the other rb's are just going high cause there young...atleast all my wr's i have ranked would have produced in the past for sure.
What i be called NUTZ if my 1st 5 picks were:
1.09 Fitz
2.04 T.Holt
3.08 R.Wayne
4.05 H.Ward
5.08 W.Dunn
6.05 F.Gore
7.08 Gonzo
8.05 M.Barber
(original spot was 8) Anyways...Would this be that horrible??? I always like to wait to get good value on Qb's so im not a fan of taking them high.....Unless they present a great value. Draft is 24 rounds....so would that be a poor stragedy and why? Sure i dont have a stud rb, but as you can see i will be running the Run and Shoot offense....And i just dont think most rb present that much value where they are getting drafted in a ppr league...
I have only done 1 ppr draft before so maybe its not my thing, but i did alot of trades and move downs and i still came out with this (now i shouldnt be that productive with me sitting on 3 future 1st rounders and a future 2nd but i think this team will compete and have some nice picks in the future)
Boller, Kyle BAL QB
Brooks, Aaron OAK QB *starter
Clemens, Kellen NYJ QB *prospect
Harrington, Joey MIA QB *backup
Nall, Craig BUF QB
Simms, Chris TBB QB
Addai, Joseph IND RB *potential starter
Calhoun, Brian DET RB *nice prospect
Dunn, Warrick ATL RB *starter
Fisher, Tony STL RB
Gore, Frank SFO RB *potential starter
Green, William CLE RB
Morency, Vernand HOU RB *nice prospect
Perry, Chris CIN RB *great dynasty prospect for PPR/possible spot starter
Robinson, Michael SFO RB *prospect
Vickers, Lawrence CLE RB *super super sleeper, I cut his hair!!
Battle, Arnaz SFO WR *prospect
Crayton, Patrick DAL WR *prospect
Holt, Torry STL WR *starter wr1
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR *starter wr3
Mason, Derrick BAL WR *starter wr4
Muhammad, Muhsin CHI WR *potential starter wr5
Thorpe, Craphonso KCC WR
Williams, Roy DET WR *starter wr2
Gonzalez, Tony KCC TE *starter
Troupe, Ben TEN TE *backup/spot starter
Vanderjagt, Mike DAL PK
Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def
Giants, New York NYG Def
So it looks like i have have a lineup of:
A.Brooks
W.Dunn
Addai/or Gore for rb2
Holt
Roy
Housh
D.Mason
Gonzo
K
Def
with guys that might play in Troupe, Mushin C.Perry on certian matchups. Showing you is to show u i do believe in Run and Shoot when it comes to PPR. My top 4 wr's averaged 21.2, 12.1 (but should be alot better this year) 16.4 and 13fp/g...my rb1 also average 13fp/g which is what most/probaly what most of those 2nd year rb's #'s will be close too. I dont know wannabees but it seems to me wr's is the way to go.
and if i did actually draft a crazy team like i mentioned above my wr's would have some explosive #'s as well as my total team scoring...
whats your take on it?
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wannabee
Footballguy
I still think you are much better off trading down if you love Fitz that much. Imo, that team would not put you in position to win it all. I think you would be MUCH better off with a first round RB and even 6th round WR (mason or driver) than the other way around. We are talking long term. I cannot see you dominating with that team. In hyper (which I know you are aware of), the banned one has a team of:
CPepp/Jake
Lewis, Chester, Cmart, etc
SSmith, Boldin, DJax, Walker, Horn
Even in PPR, I cannot see his team making serious runs deep into the playoffs each year with little RB depth.
ETA: and that league allows a starting lineup of 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, and 3 flex. So, he can run the run-n-shoot offense, too.
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THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA
Footballguy
Id say that team could compete...easily. He would have more of a chance than I would cause he ONLY has to play 1 rb, while i have to play 2. I could play 4 wr's as well but my him ONLY having to start 1 rb why would this team be a winner? if thats: S.Smith, A.Boldin D.Jax and Javon Walker with Horn as a backup....he would easily have 2 wr's that could score 20fp/g and Djax wouldnt be too far behind. Javon once healthy would crack near 17fp/g as well...Horn is probaly his by-week or injury replacement. So with that being said his rb will probaly be on the low side of 14fp/g....if you were to compare lets say a strong rb team to his team you would have to draft a team like Portis, L.Jordan, Tiki and a good wr like probaly Mason or Driver since all higher picks would have been spent on rb's. Now saying the wr team is better but i can see where it could easily compete with any team.
Why you feel it wont...sure it wont have the rb depth but in a 1 start rb league i think he is sitting pretty....
ALSO look at the ADP of that strong rb team, Portis is always around a (3-4) pick, Ive seen L.Jordan from (#5 to late 1st and in yall league he fell to high 2nd which is mindboggling in a PPR dynasty) Tiki is anywhere from the bottom 1st to mid 2nd in a PPR league and Driver is anywhere from 5th to 6th round in PPr dynasty.
Ok and now look at the wr's...in all likelyhood you will need a late 1st to get at S.Smith but ive seen times where he went in the high 2nd round....Boldin is a mid 2nd round to high 3rd. Djax is most of the time a middle to late 3rd rounder and ive seen where Javon has went from high 4th to late 4th. So even on the value of the picks from a production standpoit and longevity standpoint i think the wr's are a better route to go....Thats just me but im listening to your reasoning cause i do think i may be overlooking something here, ...............I just cant put my hands on it....
Why you feel it wont...sure it wont have the rb depth but in a 1 start rb league i think he is sitting pretty....
ALSO look at the ADP of that strong rb team, Portis is always around a (3-4) pick, Ive seen L.Jordan from (#5 to late 1st and in yall league he fell to high 2nd which is mindboggling in a PPR dynasty) Tiki is anywhere from the bottom 1st to mid 2nd in a PPR league and Driver is anywhere from 5th to 6th round in PPr dynasty.
Ok and now look at the wr's...in all likelyhood you will need a late 1st to get at S.Smith but ive seen times where he went in the high 2nd round....Boldin is a mid 2nd round to high 3rd. Djax is most of the time a middle to late 3rd rounder and ive seen where Javon has went from high 4th to late 4th. So even on the value of the picks from a production standpoit and longevity standpoint i think the wr's are a better route to go....Thats just me but im listening to your reasoning cause i do think i may be overlooking something here, ...............I just cant put my hands on it....
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wannabee
Footballguy
A few things:a. You are judging that team off of last year and looking at the high side.Id say that team could compete...easily. He would have more of a chance than I would cause he ONLY has to play 1 rb, while i have to play 2. I could play 4 wr's as well but my him ONLY having to start 1 rb why would this team be a winner? if thats: S.Smith, A.Boldin D.Jax and Javon Walker with Horn as a backup....he would easily have 2 wr's that could score 20fp/g and Djax wouldnt be too far behind. Javon once healthy would crack near 17fp/g as well...Horn is probaly his by-week or injury replacement. So with that being said his rb will probaly be on the low side of 14fp/g....if you were to compare lets say a strong rb team to his team you would have to draft a team like Portis, L.Jordan, Tiki and a good wr like probaly Mason or Driver since all higher picks would have been spent on rb's. Now saying the wr team is better but i can see where it could easily compete with any team.
Why you feel it wont...sure it wont have the rb depth but in a 1 start rb league i think he is sitting pretty....
ALSO look at the ADP of that strong rb team, Portis is always around a (3-4) pick, Ive seen L.Jordan from (#5 to late 1st and in yall league he fell to high 2nd which is mindboggling in a PPR dynasty) Tiki is anywhere from the bottom 1st to mid 2nd in a PPR league and Driver is anywhere from 5th to 6th round in PPr dynasty.
Ok and now look at the wr's...in all likelyhood you will need a late 1st to get at S.Smith but ive seen times where he went in the high 2nd round....Boldin is a mid 2nd round to high 3rd. Djax is most of the time a middle to late 3rd rounder and ive seen where Javon has went from high 4th to late 4th. So even on the value of the picks from a production standpoit and longevity standpoint i think the wr's are a better route to go....Thats just me but im listening to your reasoning cause i do think i may be overlooking something here, ...............I just cant put my hands on it....
b. That team has very little depth for the long run. Injuries happen. When three of your top four WRs are coming off years where they missed time due to knee injuries, there is risk. In addition, Lewis, Smith, and even Horn in 2005, are not immune to injuries. Add in Taylor who is unproven (and I am a skeptic). You come up with a ton of risk. When the top RBs are two huge risks, and no RB depth to speak of (CMart, Suggs, MBennett, MAnderson), there is a decent chance that a year from now he will be struggling at RB. I, too, like the top three WRs, but I also realize that Horn only has a year or two left. His bench WRs include RodWhite and Jennings which should help.
c. This team, in ppr and due to inconsistency, will struggle week to week.
d. This team is starting Alex Smith at TE and has no 2007 1st rounder.
Do I think this team could make the playoffs? sure. But, there are several better (imo) and better balanced teams. In addition, not that it is anywhere near a true indicator, the voting in the league polls did not concur with your thoughts on this team. Also, without youth or 2007 1st rounder, the team is hamstrung to a degree from improving for the long run.
Who knows? I guess time will tell.
