wannabee Strategy Thread (2 Viewers)

[wannabee]

One WR who I think is getting overvalued is Joe Jurevicius. My GB, Jeff Pasquino, is high on him. Who, after the numbers Joe J put up in Seattle in 2005, would not be? He had a phenomenal year, especially in the TD category with 10 TDs. I think those TDs are inflating his value. For the record, even with the 10 TDs last year, he has a total of 23 TDs in 8 years. Let's look at some numbers:

Jurevicius is ranked in ADP as WR49 and his overall ADP is 146, up from 161. I see his ADP creeping up to the WR35 range and 125 overall. That is high.

His redraft ranking by the FBG staff is WR44 (with Jeff P having him at WR30 and Chris Smith at WR69). What a big disparity.

His dynasty ranking by the FBG staff is WR41 (with Jeff P having him at WR29).

Now to the reason(s) I think his ADP will be too high:

Before last year, Jurevicius never had more than 4 TDs in a season. He only had 55 catches for 694 yds last year. He had one other good year, 2001. In 2001, with the Giants, Joe J had 51 catches, 700 yds and 3 TDs. This (2001) was his second best year EVER.

The FBG projections have Joe J down for 56 catches, 694 yds, and 6 TDs. This still might be generous for a couple of reasons. First of all, Jurevicius seems to be nicked up often. Check out this link for how many times he showed up on the injury report just since 2005:

http://insidethestats.com/index.php?option...etail=1&id=3336

The Browns, as a team, only had 18 passing TDs in 2005. If that number increases to 20 TDs in 2006, it is hard for me to fathom Jurevicius getting 5 or more of them. Why? Winslow is coming back for the start of the year and Edwards should be back in the lineup by midseason. When they are both back, I anticipate Joe J being the 3rd pass option, if he is still healthy by then. In addition, Dennis Northcutt is back and the Browns drafted Travis Wilson, WR, OK in the 3rd round.

Many are assuming that Jurevicius will replace the production left with Antonio Bryant. That is difficult to predict. They are two different types of players. Also, much will depend on how Frye matures as a QB.

Conclusion:

Jurevicius is valued right if he is drafted around WR49 where he is currently. But, his ADP is rising. By the time the season starts and Jurevicius is around WR35, he will be way overpriced. Also, I see Joe J's value being higher in redraft than in dynasty. He is an oft-nicked up 31 year old wr (will be 32 in late December) who is a great slot WR and red zone threat. But, in most leagues, especially PPR, he will not produce as much as the owner hopes.

Links used:

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/12484

 

[wannabee]

One thing I posted in another post made me think of something that we seem to forget in redraft leagues.

We need to remember that it seems that atleast one prominent rookie RB that does not agree to a contract and get to camp on time. This puts the rookie RBs way behind. There are many seemingly small facets of the pro game that makes it a difficult transition on short notice. Many teams would prefer to go with a less talented veteran Rb for a time until the team is assured of the rookie's performance on these seemingly small areas. Us fantasy owners overrate the actual running of the football without regard to blocking, carrying out fakes, running the correct routes, knowing the terminology, etc.

Even without a holdout, it is difficult for a rookie to get into camp and be up to speed by the first couple of games. Even then, it is usually a few games in before the coach has complete confidence in the rookie RB. If a holdout, where the rookie misses individual attention by position coach, and with the entire team in scrimmages, etc, he is putting himself way behind the curve and gives the veteran, possibly much less talented, RB an advantage for several games.

Conclusion:

In redraft leagues, stay away from rookie RBs who holdout or report to camp really late. By the same token, look for the veteran incumbant in these situations ...he will be very underrated. The Thomas Jones/Cedric benson situaion of 2005 is not as rare as we would be led to believe.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

12-team redraft, 2 Player Keeper, 14 Round Draft

Right now I have pick 1.04 if I so choose (we pick our draft slot prior to the draft, otherwise I can move down in the 1st Round from 1.04 to 1.12, or anywhere in between.

My two Keepers are Fitz (who is my 3.04 pick) and Dunn (who is my 4.09 pick).

An owner has inquired as to the tradability of Fitzgerald. In our league, Keepers retain their Keeper Draft position status whenever traded. So this guy inquiring holds pick 1.10, 1.11, or 1.12 in the first Round (he's one of 3 new owners, and all new owners go to the back of the pack for Draft position choices).

I'm wondering if it'd be worth it in the long run to trade him Fitz for his 2nd Round pick. I'd give him my 2nd at 2.09. Fitz would be his 3.10, 3.11, or 3.12, depending on his draft slot.

The trade would give me 1.04, an early 2nd (either 1.13, 1.14, or 1.15 depending on his draft slot, and I would get back my 3rd rounder (occupied by Fitz right now) at 3.04.

If I stay with everything the way it is right now and do not trade, and keep the 1.04 slot, I'm targeting Portis, Tiki or S. Jackson at 1.04, and the best REC available at 2.09. In playing around with the DD, my choices at REC#2 are, most likely:

Driver

Ward

D. Jackson

Wayne

Gates

I'd do the trade if I could make sure to get either Manning, or one of C. Johnson, Holt or T. Owens at the #2 pick. But then at #3, my choices would be the likes of:

R. Williams

Branch

J. Walker

Mason

Kennison

I definitely want to stay with going RB, REC, REC, RB for my first 4 picks.

Am I that much ahead to move up 6-8 slots in the second Round by trading away arguably a TOP 5 REC in Fitz (maybe only to receive equal value in the 2nd anyway....)

Thanks

BF

 

[wannabee]

12-team redraft, 2 Player Keeper, 14 Round Draft

Right now I have pick 1.04 if I so choose (we pick our draft slot prior to the draft, otherwise I can move down in the 1st Round from 1.04 to 1.12, or anywhere in between.

My two Keepers are Fitz (who is my 3.04 pick) and Dunn (who is my 4.09 pick).

An owner has inquired as to the tradability of Fitzgerald.  In our league, Keepers retain their Keeper Draft position status whenever traded.  So this guy inquiring holds pick 1.10, 1.11, or 1.12 in the first Round (he's one of 3 new owners, and all new owners go to the back of the pack for Draft position choices).

I'm wondering if it'd be worth it in the long run to trade him Fitz for his 2nd Round pick.  I'd give him my 2nd at 2.09.  Fitz would be his 3.10, 3.11, or 3.12, depending on his draft slot.

The trade would give me 1.04, an early 2nd (either 1.13, 1.14, or 1.15 depending on his draft slot, and I would get back my 3rd rounder (occupied by Fitz right now) at 3.04.

If I stay with everything the way it is right now and do not trade, and keep the 1.04 slot, I'm targeting Portis, Tiki or S. Jackson at 1.04, and the best REC available at 2.09.  In playing around with the DD, my choices at REC#2 are, most likely:

Driver

Ward

D. Jackson

Wayne

Gates

I'd do the trade if I could make sure to get either Manning, or one of C. Johnson, Holt or T. Owens at the #2 pick.  But then at #3, my choices would be the likes of:

R. Williams

Branch

J. Walker

Mason

Kennison

I definitely want to stay with going RB, REC, REC, RB for my first 4 picks.

Am I that much ahead to move up  6-8 slots in the second Round by trading away arguably a TOP 5 REC in Fitz (maybe only to receive equal value in the 2nd anyway....)

Thanks

BF

Not to be overly simplistic, I think Fitz more than makes up for staying put. If I read the situation correctly, you probably would not be able to keep the player in the 2nd round anyway unless you hit lightning in a bottle.Being able to keep Fitz at such a value (3rd round) is a steal. I think this decision is an easy one. Your team is set up for success, the trade would hurt that.

ETA: I suspect you should get to choose between several decent WRs in 2nd. I think you will be surprised that Driver, Mason, and/or Branch drops to you.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

12-team redraft, 2 Player Keeper, 14 Round Draft

Right now I have pick 1.04 if I so choose (we pick our draft slot prior to the draft, otherwise I can move down in the 1st Round from 1.04 to 1.12, or anywhere in between.

My two Keepers are Fitz (who is my 3.04 pick) and Dunn (who is my 4.09 pick).

An owner has inquired as to the tradability of Fitzgerald.  In our league, Keepers retain their Keeper Draft position status whenever traded.  So this guy inquiring holds pick 1.10, 1.11, or 1.12 in the first Round (he's one of 3 new owners, and all new owners go to the back of the pack for Draft position choices).

I'm wondering if it'd be worth it in the long run to trade him Fitz for his 2nd Round pick.  I'd give him my 2nd at 2.09.  Fitz would be his 3.10, 3.11, or 3.12, depending on his draft slot.

The trade would give me 1.04, an early 2nd (either 1.13, 1.14, or 1.15 depending on his draft slot, and I would get back my 3rd rounder (occupied by Fitz right now) at 3.04.

If I stay with everything the way it is right now and do not trade, and keep the 1.04 slot, I'm targeting Portis, Tiki or S. Jackson at 1.04, and the best REC available at 2.09.  In playing around with the DD, my choices at REC#2 are, most likely:

Driver

Ward

D. Jackson

Wayne

Gates

I'd do the trade if I could make sure to get either Manning, or one of C. Johnson, Holt or T. Owens at the #2 pick.  But then at #3, my choices would be the likes of:

R. Williams

Branch

J. Walker

Mason

Kennison

I definitely want to stay with going RB, REC, REC, RB for my first 4 picks.

Am I that much ahead to move up  6-8 slots in the second Round by trading away arguably a TOP 5 REC in Fitz (maybe only to receive equal value in the 2nd anyway....)

Thanks

BF

Not to be overly simplistic, I think Fitz more than makes up for staying put. If I read the situation correctly, you probably would not be able to keep the player in the 2nd round anyway unless you hit lightning in a bottle.Being able to keep Fitz at such a value (3rd round) is a steal. I think this decision is an easy one. Your team is set up for success, the trade would hurt that.

ETA: I suspect you should get to choose between several decent WRs in 2nd. I think you will be surprised that Driver, Mason, and/or Branch drops to you.

I'm actually hoing that either Wayne, Roy Williams or H. Ward drops to me in the 2nd. I'd be happy with that....maybe I am thinking too much about it....thanks

 

[wannabee]

I just think that keeping Fitz is worth it and a guy like Mason/Driver will equal or outproduce Wayne in 2005, so no big deal on not trading.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

I just think that keeping Fitz is worth it and a guy like Mason/Driver will equal or outproduce Wayne in 2005, so no big deal on not trading.

I like Waynes schedule and the potential for more targets versus Driver (what will Favre do and that Offense is a mess - their schedule looks pretty good though) and Mason (will McNair be able to reconnect with Mason like they did before?) Lots of questions on those two. Had Wayne last year and though his TDs were down, I liked him. I think Indy will air the ball out big time this year and Wayne will come very close to outproducing Harrison by a slim margin.

But whatever, looks like the best bet is to stay put.

What about intentionally moving down in the 1st Round, to say, #6 or #7 (middle of the draft order at both turns)? That way, my #2 pick is a bit higher. Just thinking oout the options...

Thanks for your thoughts

 

[wannabee]

I just think that keeping Fitz is worth it and a guy like Mason/Driver will equal or outproduce Wayne in 2005, so no big deal on not trading.

I like Waynes schedule and the potential for more targets versus Driver (what will Favre do and that Offense is a mess - their schedule looks pretty good though) and Mason (will McNair be able to reconnect with Mason like they did before?) Lots of questions on those two. Had Wayne last year and though his TDs were down, I liked him. I think Indy will air the ball out big time this year and Wayne will come very close to outproducing Harrison by a slim margin.

But whatever, looks like the best bet is to stay put.

What about intentionally moving down in the 1st Round, to say, #6 or #7 (middle of the draft order at both turns)? That way, my #2 pick is a bit higher. Just thinking oout the options...

Thanks for your thoughts

Will moving down help you that much in the 2nd round? I ask for two reasons. First, I remember that you really wanted Portis. You would be kicking yourself if Portis was there at 1.04 and you had already traded it away. Secondly, I would only trade down to 1.05. The would mean that you were guaranteed one of the RBs in the first round that you wanted. I am not trying o point out negatives, but I would think you would be kicking yourself if you traded down to 1.06 only to "have" to draft someone you do not like because "your" guys are all gone. I like to choose where I take risks, and this is too big of a risk in the first round. I think it is way less risky with that tier of WRs in the 2nd on figuring out who will fall to you.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

I just think that keeping Fitz is worth it and a guy like Mason/Driver will equal or outproduce Wayne in 2005, so no big deal on not trading.

I like Waynes schedule and the potential for more targets versus Driver (what will Favre do and that Offense is a mess - their schedule looks pretty good though) and Mason (will McNair be able to reconnect with Mason like they did before?) Lots of questions on those two. Had Wayne last year and though his TDs were down, I liked him. I think Indy will air the ball out big time this year and Wayne will come very close to outproducing Harrison by a slim margin.

But whatever, looks like the best bet is to stay put.

What about intentionally moving down in the 1st Round, to say, #6 or #7 (middle of the draft order at both turns)? That way, my #2 pick is a bit higher. Just thinking oout the options...

Thanks for your thoughts

Will moving down help you that much in the 2nd round? I ask for two reasons. First, I remember that you really wanted Portis. You would be kicking yourself if Portis was there at 1.04 and you had already traded it away. Secondly, I would only trade down to 1.05. The would mean that you were guaranteed one of the RBs in the first round that you wanted. I am not trying o point out negatives, but I would think you would be kicking yourself if you traded down to 1.06 only to "have" to draft someone you do not like because "your" guys are all gone. I like to choose where I take risks, and this is too big of a risk in the first round. I think it is way less risky with that tier of WRs in the 2nd on figuring out who will fall to you.

The only thing I'm nervous about is getting Tiki at 4 instead of Portis, which could probably happen. I'm not that high on Tiki this year, and as such, if it came down to it, I'd actually rather have S. Jackson or Jordan (or even Manning) at 1.06, than having Barber as my #1 RB at 1.04. And I think 1.04 is too high to take Jackson or Jordan (but maybe not Manning). But taking Manning at #4 would severly hamper my strength at RB#1 (in the 2nd Round)...maybe Westbrook, J.Jones, Kev. Jones, Jamal Lewis...those are the guys that are there right now at that point in the draft according to the DD.I'm just a little worried that this will be the year Tiki's numbers take a huge hit.

 

[wannabee]

I would do the math on the RBs, and not take Manning, and only consider trading down as far as you feel comfortable with the RBs that have to be available.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

I would do the math on the RBs, and not take Manning, and only consider trading down as far as you feel comfortable with the RBs that have to be available.

Yep, sounds good. What do you think of Tiki vs Portis vs. Jackson vs Jordon? How would you rate them if I could ask...Ours is a performance-based league (yardage and TDs).

 

[wannabee]

I would do the math on the RBs, and not take Manning, and only consider trading down as far as you feel comfortable with the RBs that have to be available.

Yep, sounds good. What do you think of Tiki vs Portis vs. Jackson vs Jordon? How would you rate them if I could ask...Ours is a performance-based league (yardage and TDs).

I see Portis in a league all to himself comparitively. I see Tiki still getting his yards. Sometimes we forget how nice those steady points from yards are. Also, I see Tiki's TDs going down to the 7-8 area.I see Jackson and Jordan as close. I did read a quote from Art Shell saying they would be a run-first offense. Both Jackson and Jordan are solid options. And, at this point, I have a tough time differentiating between the two for a redraft. I do think Jordan's value goes up significantly in a PPR league, as does Tiki's.

The only worry for me with Jordan is that last year it seemed that he had so many TDs that it inflated his value some. TDs are much less predictable than yards and this is why I still like Tiki in redraft performance leagues, especially if PPR. Back to Jordan, he only average 3.8 ypc last year. That is low for an elite RB. His 11 TDs more than made up for it. But, what happens if Jordan only gets 7 TDs next year? Jackson also had high TDs with 10. But, he averaged 20-30 less total yards per game than Jordan. This was due to Jordan having over 500 yds in receiving.

Tiki had 11 TDs last year, too. But, he averaged 20-30 more total yards/game than Jordan and 50+ more yards than Jackson. Those 5 points/game (1 point per 10 yds) more than Jackson really adds up. Tiki averaged almost 15 points/game last year just on yards, before even the 11 TDs. This is why I like him 4th. But, I can understand you fear of his age and miles.

ETA: One last thing: we all THINK we know how the new coaches in Oakland and St Louis will run their offense, but we really do not know. This uncertainty does produce some risk.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

Great analysis Wannabee. Actually that's where I have them:

Portis

(gap)

Tiki

(bigger gap)

Jackson

Jordon

Guess I'll hope Portis falls to me, but be happy with Tiki if that's my 2nd choice, in going by your takes and in what I've read on him so far and where he projects this year. Just hope he doesn't break down if I get him.

:fingerscrossed:

 

[wannabee]

For redraft leagues only, I am planning on staying away from all Tennessee Titan players, with the exception of either LenDale White or Chris Brown. One will emerge as the guy in preseason (probably White). I will look for Brown in the late rounds. I think the perceived backup RB will have a good deal of upside and a much lower price tag. If White, for some reason, holds out, I will be happy to take Brown earlier since I think rookie RBs have such a steep learning curve anyway and the loss of training camp impairs the upside of the rookie season (a post above details this thought) .

If White comes into preseason as the starter, I would love Brown as a RB4 in the 10-12 round.

The reason (s) I am opposed to the other Titan skill players in redraft leagues. I read a quote by Jeff Fisher saying he wants to run the ball alot. With the Titan defense what it is, I expect the Titan offense to want to try to control the games with a ball control running game. Even with the probable high amount of passing, it is difficult now to predict several things:

Who will be the QB, and for how long? Volek looks to be opening game starter. But, Fisher has said Young will see action this year. In addition, there has been rumor that Collins might sign in Tennessee thus muddying the QB waters even more.

The Titans signed Givens in the offseason and Drew Bennett seems to be almost healthy. But, which will be the go to guy? Too early to tell. I think we infer too much from the great streak Volek and Bennett put together in 2004. Plus, the Titans have 3 fairly talented WRs entering their 2 year, as well as Bobby Wade (who has impressed some in OTAs). Add on top of this the talented group of TEs. Mainly due to lack of talented and healthy WRs, the Titan TEs were targeted over 200 times in 2005. That is huge. Those targets were mainly evenly split between Troupe and Kinney, with Scaife getting some, too.

To me, these Titan receivers (WR and TE) will be overvalued for my risk tolerance. At present, White is gaining on Brown in ADP. Brown is down 5 spots in the recent ADP and White is up 7 spots overall. I expect this trend to continue.

Bennett is up 8 spots overall in the recent ADP and I do expect this to continue as well. He is valued (by ADP) over: Stallworth, Matt Jones, and even Kennison. Bennett is WR31 and Givens is WR47 in the recent ADP. Givens is dropping and Bennett is gaining.

Even still, I think the situation is filled with uncertainty. The only happy fantasy owners will be the ones that take one Tennessee WR and guess right or guess which QB will start the games they need them to (assuming any Titan QB will be a fantasy backup anyway). We still do not know how Troupe and Kinney will be used in the passing game, either, assuming the Titan WRs are healthy.

Seems muddy to me, with not a ton of upside, so I will stay away with the exception of the backup RB.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I would like to discuss the concept of value. Almost every one of my posts has that word in it. There are many ways "value" is used. Around Footballguys.com, the word "value" refers to relative value. This basically means that player's value is weighed against the value of all players at all positions. This is simply the VBD (Value Based Drafting) that FBG speaks often about and developed. I will use the word "value" as meaning that player's worth as opposed to other players or picks. This "value" has nothing to do with talent or fantasy production, just the accepted value placed on the player.

I know each player's value is a little different depending on the league, and the league scoring rules, league size and starting lineup regulations. For instance, in PPR leagues, some WRs are worth more than others. In non-PPR leagues, these two WRs could flip flop in value. The same is true for RBs, and how the league scores yardage. Jerome Bettis and Stephen Davis were awesome values in leagues that gave little scoring for yards. Also, a league's starting lineup rules are important. In a league that you only have to start one RB, or get to start 4 RBs, or 2 QBs, change player values.

Think of each player's value (generically) being on a scale from 1 to 100. I think this "value" is derived from the public perception. This public perception is similar to a market philosophy where the market determines the price. In fantasy football, player values are derived from a multitude of variables. One is ADP (or an average of where that player was drafted). But, ADP alone is flawed because it does not take into account league size, scoring, or starting lineups. Another market variable is public perception. This can include a player coming off of injury, a player coming off of a huge (but abnormal) year, a player that is worth more in the NFL than fantasy football, and many more. There are other market variables that affect the "value" of the player.

This value fluctuates up and down and is very dynamic. There are several factors that help fluctaute the value including: injury (to said player or other players on team), coaching change, personnel change (trade, cut, or sign of teammates that affect value), etc.

This is all to set up how we, as fantasy footballers, can take advantage of this "value". Remember that this "value" is the player's perceived worth compared to other players of different positions on all teams. The fantasy owners that are the best at being able to see a situation where a player is undervalued as compared to his talent usually dominate. They are able to "buy low" and "sell high". A few situations that come to mind (for dynasty, but the theory works for redraft, too):

a. acquiring TO last season after suspension while his value was low. At his lowest, TO's value was approximately even with Wayne. Now, it is up there even with the almost any and every WR ... and above many RBs. This same principle is true for those acquiring McNabb cheap when he was injured.

b. trading away Kevin Jones this time last year when his value was greater than his talent and upside. This is a very important strategy. Some players are valued at times above the level that they could ever produce. Willis last year at this time applies as well. I foresee Caddy as the RB that fits the bill for this year. We will know this time next year. Brown could apply also. But, Caddy is valued by many as the 5th best RB in fantasy. I cannot buy it.

c. holding, or acquiring, stable and non-sexy players like Dunn, Tiki, and Mason at low prices compared to their fantasy production. This sounds simple, but you should see the drafts where Dunn goes 2-3 rounds behind Julius Jones or Jamal Lewis or Kevin Jones. Who is the better "value"?

Conclusion:

The "art" and "skill" that differentiates the very good fantasy owners from the average owner is the ability to identify players and situations where the value is either too high or too low compared to that player's fantasy production, taking into account the upside (or ceiling) of the fantasy production. I would urge you to keep track of the ADP, other trades in your league, and on this board.

Many people use the ADP as a basis to judge what others think of each player. Think of how flawed that is and how you (we) can take advantage. Usually, ADPs are for a long perid of time and do not take into account current events ... which throws off the ADP (player's value). I would look to see where the "sexy" and "groupthink" players are listed. I bet they are higher than they should be. Matt Jones is about as sexy (in a fantasy football way) a player as there is. His ADP is way too high for the expected level of production, imo. Andre Johnson is the same way. For a good example, think of how many times in redraft leagues over the past couple of years that Ashley Lelie was drafted ahead of Rod Smith. How crazy does that look now? The key is to identify the Smith's and Lelie's of the league. This is where knowing a player's value and comparing it to the talent (and fantasy production) comes into play in full force.

Hope this helps.

This is an extremely good point, and should not be underestimated.If I can try and boil it down to one phrase:

"ACTUAL value may not equal PERCEIVED value."

Finding imbalances in "markets" is how people make big $$ in stocks, futures, real estate, etc. If you see value where others don't, you can make a killing. Also, the opposite is true - when everyone sees your asset as valuable, it is likely to be overvalued and you should strongly consider selling.

This is the "Art of the Deal" of trading in a nutshell.

 

[wannabee]

I would like to discuss the concept of value.  Almost every one of my posts has that word in it.  There are many ways "value" is used.  Around Footballguys.com, the word "value" refers to relative value.  This basically means that player's value is weighed against the value of all players at all positions.  This is simply the VBD (Value Based Drafting) that FBG speaks often about and developed.  I will use the word "value" as meaning that player's worth as opposed to other players or picks.  This "value" has nothing to do with talent or fantasy production, just the accepted value placed on the player.

I know each player's value is a little different depending on the league, and the league scoring rules, league size and starting lineup regulations.  For instance, in PPR leagues, some WRs are worth more than others. In non-PPR leagues, these two WRs could flip flop in value.  The same is true for RBs, and how the league scores yardage.  Jerome Bettis and Stephen Davis were awesome values in leagues that gave little scoring for yards.  Also, a league's starting lineup rules are important.  In a league that you only have to start one RB, or get to start 4 RBs, or 2 QBs, change player values.

Think of each player's value (generically) being on a scale from 1 to 100.  I think this "value" is derived from the public perception.  This public perception is similar to a market philosophy where the market determines the price.  In fantasy football, player values are derived from a multitude of variables.  One is ADP (or an average of where that player was drafted).  But, ADP alone is flawed because it does not take into account league size, scoring, or starting lineups.  Another market variable is public perception.  This can include a player coming off of injury, a player coming off of a huge (but abnormal) year, a player that is worth more in the NFL than fantasy football, and many more.  There are other market variables that affect the "value" of the player.

This value fluctuates up and down and is very dynamic.  There are several factors that help fluctaute the value including: injury (to said player or other players on team), coaching change, personnel change (trade, cut, or sign of teammates that affect value), etc.

This is all to set up how we, as fantasy footballers, can take advantage of this "value".  Remember that this "value" is the player's perceived worth compared to other players of different positions on all teams.  The fantasy owners that are the best at being able to see a situation where a player is undervalued as compared to his talent usually dominate.  They are able to "buy low" and "sell high".  A few situations that come to mind (for dynasty, but the theory works for redraft, too):

a.  acquiring TO last season after suspension while his value was low.  At his lowest, TO's value was approximately even with Wayne.  Now, it is up there even with the almost any and every WR ... and above many RBs.  This same principle is true for those acquiring McNabb cheap when he was injured.

b.  trading away Kevin Jones this time last year when his value was greater than his talent and upside.  This is a very important strategy.  Some players are valued at times above the level that they could ever produce.  Willis last year at this time applies as well.  I foresee Caddy as the RB that fits the bill for this year.  We will know this time next year.  Brown could apply also.  But, Caddy is valued by many as the 5th best RB in fantasy.  I cannot buy it.

c.  holding, or acquiring, stable and non-sexy players like Dunn, Tiki, and Mason at low prices compared to their fantasy production.  This sounds simple, but you should see the drafts where Dunn goes 2-3 rounds behind Julius Jones or Jamal Lewis or Kevin Jones.  Who is the better "value"?

Conclusion:

The "art" and "skill" that differentiates the very good fantasy owners from the average owner is the ability to identify players and situations where the value is either too high or too low compared to that player's fantasy production, taking into account the upside (or ceiling) of the fantasy production.  I would urge you to keep track of the ADP, other trades in your league, and on this board. 

Many people use the ADP as a basis to judge what others think of each player.  Think of how flawed that is and how you (we) can take advantage.  Usually, ADPs are for a long perid of time and do not take into account current events ... which throws off the ADP (player's value).  I would look to see where the "sexy" and "groupthink" players are listed.  I bet they are higher than they should be.  Matt Jones is about as sexy (in a fantasy football way) a player as there is.  His ADP is way too high for the expected level of production, imo.  Andre Johnson is the same way.  For a good example, think of how many times in redraft leagues over the past couple of years that Ashley Lelie was drafted ahead of Rod Smith.  How crazy does that look now?  The key is to identify the Smith's and Lelie's of the league.  This is where knowing a player's value and comparing it to the talent (and fantasy production) comes into play in full force.

Hope this helps.

This is an extremely good point, and should not be underestimated.If I can try and boil it down to one phrase:

"ACTUAL value may not equal PERCEIVED value."

Finding imbalances in "markets" is how people make big $$ in stocks, futures, real estate, etc. If you see value where others don't, you can make a killing. Also, the opposite is true - when everyone sees your asset as valuable, it is likely to be overvalued and you should strongly consider selling.

This is the "Art of the Deal" of trading in a nutshell.

Thanks, Jeff. I think knowing, and the ability to take advantage of differences, is the biggest key in fantasy football that most miss. The ability to buy Chester Taylor last year cheap and sell high this year is what makes some owners very good.

 

[WhoDat]

I would like to discuss the concept of value.  Almost every one of my posts has that word in it.  There are many ways "value" is used.  Around Footballguys.com, the word "value" refers to relative value.  This basically means that player's value is weighed against the value of all players at all positions.  This is simply the VBD (Value Based Drafting) that FBG speaks often about and developed.  I will use the word "value" as meaning that player's worth as opposed to other players or picks.  This "value" has nothing to do with talent or fantasy production, just the accepted value placed on the player.

I know each player's value is a little different depending on the league, and the league scoring rules, league size and starting lineup regulations.  For instance, in PPR leagues, some WRs are worth more than others. In non-PPR leagues, these two WRs could flip flop in value.  The same is true for RBs, and how the league scores yardage.  Jerome Bettis and Stephen Davis were awesome values in leagues that gave little scoring for yards.  Also, a league's starting lineup rules are important.  In a league that you only have to start one RB, or get to start 4 RBs, or 2 QBs, change player values.

Think of each player's value (generically) being on a scale from 1 to 100.  I think this "value" is derived from the public perception.  This public perception is similar to a market philosophy where the market determines the price.  In fantasy football, player values are derived from a multitude of variables.  One is ADP (or an average of where that player was drafted).  But, ADP alone is flawed because it does not take into account league size, scoring, or starting lineups.  Another market variable is public perception.  This can include a player coming off of injury, a player coming off of a huge (but abnormal) year, a player that is worth more in the NFL than fantasy football, and many more.  There are other market variables that affect the "value" of the player.

This value fluctuates up and down and is very dynamic.  There are several factors that help fluctaute the value including: injury (to said player or other players on team), coaching change, personnel change (trade, cut, or sign of teammates that affect value), etc.

This is all to set up how we, as fantasy footballers, can take advantage of this "value".  Remember that this "value" is the player's perceived worth compared to other players of different positions on all teams.  The fantasy owners that are the best at being able to see a situation where a player is undervalued as compared to his talent usually dominate.  They are able to "buy low" and "sell high".  A few situations that come to mind (for dynasty, but the theory works for redraft, too):

a.  acquiring TO last season after suspension while his value was low.  At his lowest, TO's value was approximately even with Wayne.  Now, it is up there even with the almost any and every WR ... and above many RBs.  This same principle is true for those acquiring McNabb cheap when he was injured.

b.  trading away Kevin Jones this time last year when his value was greater than his talent and upside.  This is a very important strategy.  Some players are valued at times above the level that they could ever produce.  Willis last year at this time applies as well.  I foresee Caddy as the RB that fits the bill for this year.  We will know this time next year.  Brown could apply also.  But, Caddy is valued by many as the 5th best RB in fantasy.  I cannot buy it.

c.  holding, or acquiring, stable and non-sexy players like Dunn, Tiki, and Mason at low prices compared to their fantasy production.  This sounds simple, but you should see the drafts where Dunn goes 2-3 rounds behind Julius Jones or Jamal Lewis or Kevin Jones.  Who is the better "value"?

Conclusion:

The "art" and "skill" that differentiates the very good fantasy owners from the average owner is the ability to identify players and situations where the value is either too high or too low compared to that player's fantasy production, taking into account the upside (or ceiling) of the fantasy production.  I would urge you to keep track of the ADP, other trades in your league, and on this board. 

Many people use the ADP as a basis to judge what others think of each player.  Think of how flawed that is and how you (we) can take advantage.  Usually, ADPs are for a long perid of time and do not take into account current events ... which throws off the ADP (player's value).  I would look to see where the "sexy" and "groupthink" players are listed.  I bet they are higher than they should be.  Matt Jones is about as sexy (in a fantasy football way) a player as there is.  His ADP is way too high for the expected level of production, imo.  Andre Johnson is the same way.  For a good example, think of how many times in redraft leagues over the past couple of years that Ashley Lelie was drafted ahead of Rod Smith.  How crazy does that look now?  The key is to identify the Smith's and Lelie's of the league.  This is where knowing a player's value and comparing it to the talent (and fantasy production) comes into play in full force.

Hope this helps.

This is an extremely good point, and should not be underestimated.If I can try and boil it down to one phrase:

"ACTUAL value may not equal PERCEIVED value."

Finding imbalances in "markets" is how people make big $$ in stocks, futures, real estate, etc. If you see value where others don't, you can make a killing. Also, the opposite is true - when everyone sees your asset as valuable, it is likely to be overvalued and you should strongly consider selling.

This is the "Art of the Deal" of trading in a nutshell.

After reading wannabe's first post on value, I started to put some thoughts down on paper. Well, I know have a decent sized essay that I might submit prior to July 17th, which is assuming I get time to finish it. If I do not, then I will post it here. It is built around Actual versus Perceived value and how a dynasty owner might come to understand that idea; track and learn the tendencies of his league mates; locate purchase patterns within his peers and learn to control the league economy; player inflation and buying cycles.

The article is geared more for folks just making the jump from redraft to dynasty but I figure it will need a home, if I cannot finish it, and this would be the most logical place.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I would like to discuss the concept of value. Almost every one of my posts has that word in it. There are many ways "value" is used. Around Footballguys.com, the word "value" refers to relative value. This basically means that player's value is weighed against the value of all players at all positions. This is simply the VBD (Value Based Drafting) that FBG speaks often about and developed. I will use the word "value" as meaning that player's worth as opposed to other players or picks. This "value" has nothing to do with talent or fantasy production, just the accepted value placed on the player.

I know each player's value is a little different depending on the league, and the league scoring rules, league size and starting lineup regulations. For instance, in PPR leagues, some WRs are worth more than others. In non-PPR leagues, these two WRs could flip flop in value. The same is true for RBs, and how the league scores yardage. Jerome Bettis and Stephen Davis were awesome values in leagues that gave little scoring for yards. Also, a league's starting lineup rules are important. In a league that you only have to start one RB, or get to start 4 RBs, or 2 QBs, change player values.

Think of each player's value (generically) being on a scale from 1 to 100. I think this "value" is derived from the public perception. This public perception is similar to a market philosophy where the market determines the price. In fantasy football, player values are derived from a multitude of variables. One is ADP (or an average of where that player was drafted). But, ADP alone is flawed because it does not take into account league size, scoring, or starting lineups. Another market variable is public perception. This can include a player coming off of injury, a player coming off of a huge (but abnormal) year, a player that is worth more in the NFL than fantasy football, and many more. There are other market variables that affect the "value" of the player.

This value fluctuates up and down and is very dynamic. There are several factors that help fluctaute the value including: injury (to said player or other players on team), coaching change, personnel change (trade, cut, or sign of teammates that affect value), etc.

This is all to set up how we, as fantasy footballers, can take advantage of this "value". Remember that this "value" is the player's perceived worth compared to other players of different positions on all teams. The fantasy owners that are the best at being able to see a situation where a player is undervalued as compared to his talent usually dominate. They are able to "buy low" and "sell high". A few situations that come to mind (for dynasty, but the theory works for redraft, too):

a. acquiring TO last season after suspension while his value was low. At his lowest, TO's value was approximately even with Wayne. Now, it is up there even with the almost any and every WR ... and above many RBs. This same principle is true for those acquiring McNabb cheap when he was injured.

b. trading away Kevin Jones this time last year when his value was greater than his talent and upside. This is a very important strategy. Some players are valued at times above the level that they could ever produce. Willis last year at this time applies as well. I foresee Caddy as the RB that fits the bill for this year. We will know this time next year. Brown could apply also. But, Caddy is valued by many as the 5th best RB in fantasy. I cannot buy it.

c. holding, or acquiring, stable and non-sexy players like Dunn, Tiki, and Mason at low prices compared to their fantasy production. This sounds simple, but you should see the drafts where Dunn goes 2-3 rounds behind Julius Jones or Jamal Lewis or Kevin Jones. Who is the better "value"?

Conclusion:

The "art" and "skill" that differentiates the very good fantasy owners from the average owner is the ability to identify players and situations where the value is either too high or too low compared to that player's fantasy production, taking into account the upside (or ceiling) of the fantasy production. I would urge you to keep track of the ADP, other trades in your league, and on this board.

Many people use the ADP as a basis to judge what others think of each player. Think of how flawed that is and how you (we) can take advantage. Usually, ADPs are for a long perid of time and do not take into account current events ... which throws off the ADP (player's value). I would look to see where the "sexy" and "groupthink" players are listed. I bet they are higher than they should be. Matt Jones is about as sexy (in a fantasy football way) a player as there is. His ADP is way too high for the expected level of production, imo. Andre Johnson is the same way. For a good example, think of how many times in redraft leagues over the past couple of years that Ashley Lelie was drafted ahead of Rod Smith. How crazy does that look now? The key is to identify the Smith's and Lelie's of the league. This is where knowing a player's value and comparing it to the talent (and fantasy production) comes into play in full force.

Hope this helps.

This is an extremely good point, and should not be underestimated.If I can try and boil it down to one phrase:

"ACTUAL value may not equal PERCEIVED value."

Finding imbalances in "markets" is how people make big $$ in stocks, futures, real estate, etc. If you see value where others don't, you can make a killing. Also, the opposite is true - when everyone sees your asset as valuable, it is likely to be overvalued and you should strongly consider selling.

This is the "Art of the Deal" of trading in a nutshell.

After reading wannabe's first post on value, I started to put some thoughts down on paper. Well, I know have a decent sized essay that I might submit prior to July 17th, which is assuming I get time to finish it. If I do not, then I will post it here. It is built around Actual versus Perceived value and how a dynasty owner might come to understand that idea; track and learn the tendencies of his league mates; locate purchase patterns within his peers and learn to control the league economy; player inflation and buying cycles.

The article is geared more for folks just making the jump from redraft to dynasty but I figure it will need a home, if I cannot finish it, and this would be the most logical place.

WhoDat,If you haven't thought about submitting that article as a freelance endeavor, do so.

-JP

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

One WR who I think is getting overvalued is Joe Jurevicius. My GB, Jeff Pasquino, is high on him. Who, after the numbers Joe J put up in Seattle in 2005, would not be? He had a phenomenal year, especially in the TD category with 10 TDs. I think those TDs are inflating his value. For the record, even with the 10 TDs last year, he has a total of 23 TDs in 8 years. Let's look at some numbers:

Jurevicius is ranked in ADP as WR49 and his overall ADP is 146, up from 161. I see his ADP creeping up to the WR35 range and 125 overall. That is high.

His redraft ranking by the FBG staff is WR44 (with Jeff P having him at WR30 and Chris Smith at WR69). What a big disparity.

His dynasty ranking by the FBG staff is WR41 (with Jeff P having him at WR29).

Now to the reason(s) I think his ADP will be too high:

Before last year, Jurevicius never had more than 4 TDs in a season. He only had 55 catches for 694 yds last year. He had one other good year, 2001. In 2001, with the Giants, Joe J had 51 catches, 700 yds and 3 TDs. This (2001) was his second best year EVER.

The FBG projections have Joe J down for 56 catches, 694 yds, and 6 TDs. This still might be generous for a couple of reasons. First of all, Jurevicius seems to be nicked up often. Check out this link for how many times he showed up on the injury report just since 2005:

http://insidethestats.com/index.php?option...etail=1&id=3336

The Browns, as a team, only had 18 passing TDs in 2005. If that number increases to 20 TDs in 2006, it is hard for me to fathom Jurevicius getting 5 or more of them. Why? Winslow is coming back for the start of the year and Edwards should be back in the lineup by midseason. When they are both back, I anticipate Joe J being the 3rd pass option, if he is still healthy by then. In addition, Dennis Northcutt is back and the Browns drafted Travis Wilson, WR, OK in the 3rd round.

Many are assuming that Jurevicius will replace the production left with Antonio Bryant. That is difficult to predict. They are two different types of players. Also, much will depend on how Frye matures as a QB.

Conclusion:

Jurevicius is valued right if he is drafted around WR49 where he is currently. But, his ADP is rising. By the time the season starts and Jurevicius is around WR35, he will be way overpriced. Also, I see Joe J's value being higher in redraft than in dynasty. He is an oft-nicked up 31 year old wr (will be 32 in late December) who is a great slot WR and red zone threat. But, in most leagues, especially PPR, he will not produce as much as the owner hopes.

Links used:

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/12484

Joe Jurevicius. Let's talk about him.First, I do NOT base my numbers on someone "replacing" another player's numbers. That's foolish. What I will do, however, is look at the "hole" that is created by a player leaving, and seeing how a team will look to fill that hole.

Cleveland has TWO gaping holes at WR this year (minus Joe J). Antonio Bryant had 123 targets last season, but he only caught 44 of them (horrible) for 733 yards and 6 TDs.

Last year in Seattle, Joe J had 84 targets and caught 55, a respectable / good 67% catch percentage. Moreover, he scored 10 TDs and put up 694 yards on those 55 balls.

Now this year. Braylon Edwards is OUT. Until October. Or November. This is stated as of June / July. Wait until August and everyone starts to hear that Edwards is "behind on his timetable". Four games would be good for Edwards.

So there goes your #1 WR this year for at least 8 games, probably more. Bryant is in SF, so the other WR is either rookie Travis Wilson or Dennis Northcutt, neither of which frighten DBs.

Back to Joe J now. Who is going to get the 300 targets from last season's Browns? Joe J is likely to get 100-110 of them. Last year he caught 2/3 of the passes headed towards him, and for his career (over the past 4 years) he averages over 2/3s as well. So let's give him 70 catches. His YPC last year was 12+. There is 850-900 yards. I don't pretend to expect 10 TDs again, but 7 is reasonable.

Put it all together and Joe J is 70-875-7 this season. That is 129.5 pts, and almost 200 in a PPR league. That puts him right back where he was last year, about WR#25 in the NFL. Sounds good to me.

As for dynasty - he's 31, turning 32 in December. I can definitely see him playing 2-3 more years at that performance level, so I have him ranked accordingly. 31 is younger than it used to be - just ask Rod Smith.

 

[wannabee]

One WR who I think is getting overvalued is Joe Jurevicius.  My GB, Jeff Pasquino, is high on him.  Who, after the numbers Joe J put up in Seattle in 2005, would not be?  He had a phenomenal year, especially in the TD category with 10 TDs.  I think those TDs are inflating his value.  For the record, even with the 10 TDs last year, he has a total of 23 TDs in 8 years.  Let's look at some numbers:

Jurevicius is ranked in ADP as WR49 and his overall ADP is 146, up from 161.  I see his ADP creeping up to the WR35 range and 125 overall.  That is high.

His redraft ranking by the FBG staff is WR44 (with Jeff P having him at WR30 and Chris Smith at WR69).  What a big disparity. 

His dynasty ranking by the FBG staff is WR41 (with Jeff P having him at WR29).

Now to the reason(s) I think his ADP will be too high:

Before last year, Jurevicius never had more than 4 TDs in a season.  He only had 55 catches for 694 yds last year.  He had one other good year, 2001.  In 2001, with the Giants, Joe J had 51 catches, 700 yds and 3 TDs.  This (2001) was his second best year EVER.

The FBG projections have Joe J down for 56 catches, 694 yds, and 6 TDs.  This still might be generous for a couple of reasons.  First of all, Jurevicius seems to be nicked up often.  Check out this link for how many times he showed up on the injury report just since 2005:

http://insidethestats.com/index.php?option...etail=1&id=3336

The Browns, as a team, only had 18 passing TDs in 2005.  If that number increases to 20 TDs in 2006, it is hard for me to fathom Jurevicius getting 5 or more of them.  Why?  Winslow is coming back for the start of the year and Edwards should be back in the lineup by midseason.  When they are both back, I anticipate Joe J being the 3rd pass option, if he is still healthy by then.  In addition, Dennis Northcutt is back and the Browns drafted Travis Wilson, WR, OK in the 3rd round.

Many are assuming that Jurevicius will replace the production left with Antonio Bryant.  That is difficult to predict.  They are two different types of players.    Also, much will depend on how Frye matures as a QB. 

Conclusion:

Jurevicius is valued right if he is drafted around WR49 where he is currently.  But, his ADP is rising.  By the time the season starts and Jurevicius is around WR35, he will be way overpriced.  Also, I see Joe J's value being higher in redraft than in dynasty.  He is an oft-nicked up 31 year old wr (will be 32 in late December) who is a great slot WR and red zone threat.  But, in most leagues, especially PPR, he will not produce as much as the owner hopes.

Links used:

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/12484

Joe Jurevicius. Let's talk about him.First, I do NOT base my numbers on someone "replacing" another player's numbers. That's foolish. What I will do, however, is look at the "hole" that is created by a player leaving, and seeing how a team will look to fill that hole.

Cleveland has TWO gaping holes at WR this year (minus Joe J). Antonio Bryant had 123 targets last season, but he only caught 44 of them (horrible) for 733 yards and 6 TDs.

Last year in Seattle, Joe J had 84 targets and caught 55, a respectable / good 67% catch percentage. Moreover, he scored 10 TDs and put up 694 yards on those 55 balls.

Now this year. Braylon Edwards is OUT. Until October. Or November. This is stated as of June / July. Wait until August and everyone starts to hear that Edwards is "behind on his timetable". Four games would be good for Edwards.

So there goes your #1 WR this year for at least 8 games, probably more. Bryant is in SF, so the other WR is either rookie Travis Wilson or Dennis Northcutt, neither of which frighten DBs.

Back to Joe J now. Who is going to get the 300 targets from last season's Browns? Joe J is likely to get 100-110 of them. Last year he caught 2/3 of the passes headed towards him, and for his career (over the past 4 years) he averages over 2/3s as well. So let's give him 70 catches. His YPC last year was 12+. There is 850-900 yards. I don't pretend to expect 10 TDs again, but 7 is reasonable.

Put it all together and Joe J is 70-875-7 this season. That is 129.5 pts, and almost 200 in a PPR league. That puts him right back where he was last year, about WR#25 in the NFL. Sounds good to me.

As for dynasty - he's 31, turning 32 in December. I can definitely see him playing 2-3 more years at that performance level, so I have him ranked accordingly. 31 is younger than it used to be - just ask Rod Smith.

Thanks Jeff. I see Jurevicius having a chance to produce those numbers. But, he could also get hurt. Those TDs would be only second highest of career.My point was one more of value than of performance. He is good value where he is now (WR49). But, he could be drafted at WR30, or above. That is too risky for my taste.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

One WR who I think is getting overvalued is Joe Jurevicius. My GB, Jeff Pasquino, is high on him. Who, after the numbers Joe J put up in Seattle in 2005, would not be? He had a phenomenal year, especially in the TD category with 10 TDs. I think those TDs are inflating his value. For the record, even with the 10 TDs last year, he has a total of 23 TDs in 8 years. Let's look at some numbers:

Jurevicius is ranked in ADP as WR49 and his overall ADP is 146, up from 161. I see his ADP creeping up to the WR35 range and 125 overall. That is high.

His redraft ranking by the FBG staff is WR44 (with Jeff P having him at WR30 and Chris Smith at WR69). What a big disparity.

His dynasty ranking by the FBG staff is WR41 (with Jeff P having him at WR29).

Now to the reason(s) I think his ADP will be too high:

Before last year, Jurevicius never had more than 4 TDs in a season. He only had 55 catches for 694 yds last year. He had one other good year, 2001. In 2001, with the Giants, Joe J had 51 catches, 700 yds and 3 TDs. This (2001) was his second best year EVER.

The FBG projections have Joe J down for 56 catches, 694 yds, and 6 TDs. This still might be generous for a couple of reasons. First of all, Jurevicius seems to be nicked up often. Check out this link for how many times he showed up on the injury report just since 2005:

http://insidethestats.com/index.php?option...etail=1&id=3336

The Browns, as a team, only had 18 passing TDs in 2005. If that number increases to 20 TDs in 2006, it is hard for me to fathom Jurevicius getting 5 or more of them. Why? Winslow is coming back for the start of the year and Edwards should be back in the lineup by midseason. When they are both back, I anticipate Joe J being the 3rd pass option, if he is still healthy by then. In addition, Dennis Northcutt is back and the Browns drafted Travis Wilson, WR, OK in the 3rd round.

Many are assuming that Jurevicius will replace the production left with Antonio Bryant. That is difficult to predict. They are two different types of players. Also, much will depend on how Frye matures as a QB.

Conclusion:

Jurevicius is valued right if he is drafted around WR49 where he is currently. But, his ADP is rising. By the time the season starts and Jurevicius is around WR35, he will be way overpriced. Also, I see Joe J's value being higher in redraft than in dynasty. He is an oft-nicked up 31 year old wr (will be 32 in late December) who is a great slot WR and red zone threat. But, in most leagues, especially PPR, he will not produce as much as the owner hopes.

Links used:

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/12484

Joe Jurevicius. Let's talk about him.First, I do NOT base my numbers on someone "replacing" another player's numbers. That's foolish. What I will do, however, is look at the "hole" that is created by a player leaving, and seeing how a team will look to fill that hole.

Cleveland has TWO gaping holes at WR this year (minus Joe J). Antonio Bryant had 123 targets last season, but he only caught 44 of them (horrible) for 733 yards and 6 TDs.

Last year in Seattle, Joe J had 84 targets and caught 55, a respectable / good 67% catch percentage. Moreover, he scored 10 TDs and put up 694 yards on those 55 balls.

Now this year. Braylon Edwards is OUT. Until October. Or November. This is stated as of June / July. Wait until August and everyone starts to hear that Edwards is "behind on his timetable". Four games would be good for Edwards.

So there goes your #1 WR this year for at least 8 games, probably more. Bryant is in SF, so the other WR is either rookie Travis Wilson or Dennis Northcutt, neither of which frighten DBs.

Back to Joe J now. Who is going to get the 300 targets from last season's Browns? Joe J is likely to get 100-110 of them. Last year he caught 2/3 of the passes headed towards him, and for his career (over the past 4 years) he averages over 2/3s as well. So let's give him 70 catches. His YPC last year was 12+. There is 850-900 yards. I don't pretend to expect 10 TDs again, but 7 is reasonable.

Put it all together and Joe J is 70-875-7 this season. That is 129.5 pts, and almost 200 in a PPR league. That puts him right back where he was last year, about WR#25 in the NFL. Sounds good to me.

As for dynasty - he's 31, turning 32 in December. I can definitely see him playing 2-3 more years at that performance level, so I have him ranked accordingly. 31 is younger than it used to be - just ask Rod Smith.

Thanks Jeff. I see Jurevicius having a chance to produce those numbers. But, he could also get hurt. Those TDs would be only second highest of career.My point was one more of value than of performance. He is good value where he is now (WR49). But, he could be drafted at WR30, or above. That is too risky for my taste.

I agree on the value. I love him as the 40th WR or later. Earlier, not so much. Regarding "could get hurt" - so can everyone in the NFL. I don't recall Joe J having a history there so I don't put him in the "injury prone" category. That puts him in the general pool of players who could get nicked any given play, so I wash all that out.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I have been down on Chester Taylor more than the vast majority of people. In another post, I articulated why. Here is the post copied:

Yes, he does catch a lot of passes an had a decent ypc in Baltimore in limited duty, I am not a believer. Here is his stat line:

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302136

I think the Vikings will be a poor team this year and have to abandon the running game early and often. I look at the one game Taylor did start last year for Baltimore against a good Denver defense. He had the following stat line:

20 carries, 59 yds, 3.0 ypc, longest run 14 yds, 3 catches, 14 yds, 4.7 avg per catch, longest catch 8yds, and 1 fumble. This game included a nice four game stretch where Taylor had 3 fumbles in 4 games.

Here is the game by game stat line:

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302136/gamelogs/2005

I would also ask everyone who is a Taylor fan to look at:

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302136/splits/2005

About a third of the way down the page, it shows the breakdown of production with 1-10 carries, 11-20 carries, and so on. If you notice, Taylor did great with 10 carries or less, having 96 carries, 443 yds and a 4.6 ypc. That is good. BUT, what happens if he gets 11 or more carries in a game? 21 carries, 44 yds, and a whopping 2.1 ypc.

Lastly, I would like you to notice that has a total of 7 TDs in 478 touches (carries and catches). I think his lack of TDs will keep his production down even further.

I would love to hear the Taylor supporters opinions and why they think I am wrong.

I think you're overlooking the new coach - Brad Childress. He was the OC in Philly with both the 3-back attack and also with Westy. Even if the Vikings are behind, CTaylor is a good backing block with good hands, and he will be catching balls out of hte backfield. He could be a poor-man's Westbrook this year.He's averaged 4+ YPC the last 3 seasons, and his catch totals have gone up about 10 a year for his entire career, peaking last year at 41.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Other than knowing your league's rules inside and out, what is the next thing you should concentrate on in an initial dynasty draft?

Great question. I do not know what the next thing is, but here are some things I think are important:a. Study ADPs, and other initial dynasty drafts, to get a good feel for when each player will be the best value for you.

b. Do several mock drafts from your assigned draft slot. See who should be available at each pick. This helps in two ways: 1) lets you better recognize the value available with each pick (and easily realize a player dropping) and 2) it lets recognize ahead of time the spots that you should either trade up to take the last player before atalent dropoff OR trade down because there is a ton of talent available.

c. Have a plan. This is not a rigid plan. The best drafters are ones that know who will be available for each pick and know which round they should take each player .... as long as things play out as thought. I try to be conservative in this. I try to allow a couple of extra draft slots for each player so that I am not surprised. By this, if I have the 20th overall pick and think (hope) that certain players will be there, I lay out my draft using the 22nd overall spot.

d. Be flexible. Play around in your mock drafts with different positions in each round. I think you can lay out the first 6-8 rounds in each draft fairly easily. The most flexible drafters are those that can best take advantage of value available.

e. Recognize which positions, before the draft, that you are ok waiting on. I waited until the 10th for my first QB in a recent dynasty draft. Some may wait on RB3, or TE. If you know which positions you will wait on, formulate a plan to address this deficiency. By the ADP, and other drafts, I had a good idea which QBs would be available later on. I am a fantasy guy that, for dynasty, loads up on RBs with the thought that they are the easiest to trade away for value.

f. In conjuction with e. above, plan your risks. I say this because if you know where you will take your risks, you can plan around filling your team's needs better. For me, it is usually taking Marion Barber. I like that guy and think he could be a decent RB. In this recent initial dynasty draft (PPR), I traded up to take back-to-back picks of Ahman Green and Marion Barber at 7.01 and 7.02. With this risk, I had to get Gado later, which meant that I had to wait on QB and TE. But, now I have Green/Gado/Barber at RB3. I am happy with this. After the draft, and a trade, I ended up with Leftwich, TGreen, and McNair for a QBBC and JMcCown and Frerotte on the bench. I am perfectly happy with this. For me, it worked out. But, the risk was that I only had two WRs at the time I traded up. I was very lucky, and by plan, that Driver was there for me to trade up to 8.01 for Driver (in PPR). I noticed that he and Coles, both of which I would be happy with as WR3, were dropping, so I waited.

g. In conjuction with f. above, know which picks you will take the steady player.

h. In leagues where you start 3 or more WRs, look for guys like Driver and Mason in rounds 6-8 and Moulds in round 10-11 and even Toomer in round 15. These are the type of WRs you can utilize, especially in PPR leagues, for a few years until your riskier young WRs (Matt Jones, Mark Clayton, Reggie Brown, etc.) get up to a point you can rely on them each week.

i. As the draft is progressing, assuming it is a slow draft, use the ADP and other info, to project your next 3-5 picks ahead of time. I think this is a big key to being successful. This allows you to see how your team might look beforehand, and react accordingly, if you do not like the results.

I know I am forgetting some. More to add when/if I remember.

This is one of the most challenging types of drafts.

Favor youth?

Prospects?

Rookies?

What to do.

I like all the above, but one I NEED to add.....

Entertain trades.

There will be SOMEONE chomping at the bit to get "their guy" rather than having the draft come to them. If you don't like who's tops on your list as your turn approaches - TRADE DOWN.

Pick up another round or 2 later (i.e. trade pick 25 for 30 if you can move your 72 pick to 48). That's immense value.

When you do pick something up, have a plan for it. Got 48 and 50? Target a QB there. You should know if Brady or McNabb will be there based on your mocks / research.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Here is a write up I did for Michael Clayton. Please feel free to comment.

Disclaimer: I know injury claimed some of the blame for Clayton's lower numbers in 2005 compared to his rookie year in 2004.

But, I would like to offer another, alternative reason:

Drop in targets. Period.

Here are the numbers:

In 2004, Clayton had 116 of the 253 Tampa WR targets. Of those targets, he caught 80 passes for 1193 yds and 7 TDs. This was a very good rookie year. Also, Galloway and Jurevicius each missed six of the first 7 games. During this time, Clayton had 55 targets in his first 7 games. The surprising part is that the targets did not decrease when Galloway and Jurevicius came back. Clayton still averaged almost two more targets a game than did Galloway after Galloway came back from the injury.

In 2005, Clayton had 55 targets in 13 games. This is out of a total of WR targets of 270. Of those 55 targets, 32 netting 372 yds and 0 TDs. Oddly enough, Jurevicius departed and Galloway received the bulk of the targets. Galloway had 152 of the 270 total WR targets. In addition, Ike Hillard had 54 targets.

Now, let's look at the difference in targets. The targets for Clayton were almost cut in half on a per game basis. This has to play major part in the reduction in fantasy production. Something changes between 2004 and 2005 to flip-flop the targets.

Some possibilities:

a. Injury: Galloway was still nicked up when he first came back in 2004 and his targets rose as he became healthier. In addition, Clayton's injuries could have made him ineffective and less able to get open in 2005 than in 2004.

b. The addition of Caddy Williams in 2005 altered the routes and play-calling, and therefore the targets. In 2004, Pittman was leading rusher with 219 carries for 926 yds. In 2005, Caddy was the leading rusher 290 carries for 1178 yds.

c. Change of QB. In 2004, Griese played in 11 games and averaged 30 attempts a game. In 2005, Simms was the leading QB, playing in 11 games and and attemped 313 passes. Maybe Griese, as a veteran, gained confidence in the rookie (Clayton) and looked for him even after Galloway and Jurevicius came back. Simms, a young QB, looked for the stable, veteran WR (Galloway) often as a safety net, especially with a rookie RB.

d. Record of Tampa Bay. In 2004, the Bucs were 5-11 and 11-5 in 2005. This, in addition to the drafting of Caddy, could change the game plan.

In summary, I think some of the blame for the decrease in Clayton's fantasy production was due to injury. But, there are many other factors at work, too. In trying to define fantasy production for 2006, and beyond, I think we cannot assume that Clayton will automatically resume the position as focal point in the passing game, and thereby getting the largest chunk of the targets.

The targets will tell us in 2006 which year, 2004 or 2005, was the fluke.

The links for this info:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/tam2005.htm

http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-tam-2.php

I agree to a point, but did the decrease in targets result from Simms knowing that he was hurt?Clayton has been healthy this offseason and has worked with Simms in the OTAs for the first time. I expect a far better year from him in '06.

 

[wannabee]

Here is a write up I did for Michael Clayton.  Please feel free to comment.

Disclaimer: I know injury claimed some of the blame for Clayton's lower numbers in 2005 compared to his rookie year in 2004.

But, I would like to offer another, alternative reason:

Drop in targets. Period.

Here are the numbers:

In 2004, Clayton had 116 of the 253 Tampa WR targets. Of those targets, he caught 80 passes for 1193 yds and 7 TDs. This was a very good rookie year. Also, Galloway and Jurevicius each missed six of the first 7 games. During this time, Clayton had 55 targets in his first 7 games. The surprising part is that the targets did not decrease when Galloway and Jurevicius came back. Clayton still averaged almost two more targets a game than did Galloway after Galloway came back from the injury.

In 2005, Clayton had 55 targets in 13 games. This is out of a total of WR targets of 270. Of those 55 targets, 32 netting 372 yds and 0 TDs. Oddly enough, Jurevicius departed and Galloway received the bulk of the targets. Galloway had 152 of the 270 total WR targets. In addition, Ike Hillard had 54 targets.

Now, let's look at the difference in targets. The targets for Clayton were almost cut in half on a per game basis. This has to play major part in the reduction in fantasy production. Something changes between 2004 and 2005 to flip-flop the targets.

Some possibilities:

a. Injury: Galloway was still nicked up when he first came back in 2004 and his targets rose as he became healthier. In addition, Clayton's injuries could have made him ineffective and less able to get open in 2005 than in 2004.

b. The addition of Caddy Williams in 2005 altered the routes and play-calling, and therefore the targets. In 2004, Pittman was leading rusher with 219 carries for 926 yds. In 2005, Caddy was the leading rusher 290 carries for 1178 yds.

c. Change of QB. In 2004, Griese played in 11 games and averaged 30 attempts a game. In 2005, Simms was the leading QB, playing in 11 games and and attemped 313 passes. Maybe Griese, as a veteran, gained confidence in the rookie (Clayton) and looked for him even after Galloway and Jurevicius came back. Simms, a young QB, looked for the stable, veteran WR (Galloway) often as a safety net, especially with a rookie RB.

d. Record of Tampa Bay. In 2004, the Bucs were 5-11 and 11-5 in 2005. This, in addition to the drafting of Caddy, could change the game plan.

In summary, I think some of the blame for the decrease in Clayton's fantasy production was due to injury. But, there are many other factors at work, too. In trying to define fantasy production for 2006, and beyond, I think we cannot assume that Clayton will automatically resume the position as focal point in the passing game, and thereby getting the largest chunk of the targets.

The targets will tell us in 2006 which year, 2004 or 2005, was the fluke.

The links for this info:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/tam2005.htm

http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-tam-2.php

I agree to a point, but did the decrease in targets result from Simms knowing that he was hurt?Clayton has been healthy this offseason and has worked with Simms in the OTAs for the first time. I expect a far better year from him in '06.

But, is it the chicken or the egg? I just think most are expecting 2004 numbers, and much has changed since then.

 

[wannabee]

I appreciate Jeff's comments and invite any and all to "chime" in on any topic. My goal is to spur football talk.

 

[WhoDat]

WhoDat,If you haven't thought about submitting that article as a freelance endeavor, do so.-JP

Jeff, if I get time to complete it; edit it for content, as it is long; and make it a little lighter, then I plan on sending it. The problem is I might not have time to complete that process before the deadline.

 

[wannabee]

WhoDat,

If you haven't thought about submitting that article as a freelance endeavor, do so.

-JP

Jeff, if I get time to complete it; edit it for content, as it is long; and make it a little lighter, then I plan on sending it. The problem is I might not have time to complete that process before the deadline.

Feel free to post on this or any other topic in this thread. I want this thread to be about talking football. I look forward to seeing your article.Also, everyone please see post 1 for a table of all strategy/player posts. I hope it is helpful.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

WhoDat,

If you haven't thought about submitting that article as a freelance endeavor, do so.

-JP

Jeff, if I get time to complete it; edit it for content, as it is long; and make it a little lighter, then I plan on sending it. The problem is I might not have time to complete that process before the deadline.

Feel free to post on this or any other topic in this thread. I want this thread to be about talking football. I look forward to seeing your article.Also, everyone please see post 1 for a table of all strategy/player posts. I hope it is helpful.

Navigation of these threads can be trying.

Nice effort.

 

[wannabee]

To handcuff or not to handcuff. Many disagree on this topic. I am a handcuffer, because I am risk averse. I try to pick the spots where I take risks. But, in order to handcuff effectively, you must only pick players that can produce if given the opportunity. Many players only handcuff QB or RB, not WR or TE.

There are certain players that have proven themselves not worthy of a pickup as a handcuff. What good does it do if you use a mid-to-late pick on a player as a handcuff and that player, if given the opportunity, could not start for your team even with the void?

Some of the evaluation of handcuffs is the situation, while the other part is talent. A great situation does you no good with a below average fantasy player as a backup/handcuff.

Here are some examples of what I am referring to, both attractive and unattractive handcuffs (and omitting the rookies):

Attractive QBs:

Bulger -> Frerotte

Kitna -> McCown

Leftwich -> Garrard

Vick -> Schaub

Brunell -> Campbell

Unattractive RB:

McNabb -> Detmer

Bledsoe -> Romo

Rivers -> Feeley

Green -> Huard

Roethlisberger -> Batch

Palmer -> Doug Johnson

Simms -> Fiedler

Carr -> Sage R

Eli M -> Lorenzen

Peyton M -> Sorgi (bum shoulder)

Brady -> Cassel

Delhomme -> Weinke

Frye -> Dorsey

ASmith -> Dilfer

Attractive RB:

Alexander -> MoMo

LT -> Turner

Rudi -> Perry

Julius -> Barber

Dunn -> Duckett/Norwood

Westbrook -> Moats

Lewis -> Mike Anderson

Unattractive RB:

Tiki -> Jacobs

Brown -> Morris

Parker -> Staley

SJackson -> Fisher

LJ -> Dee Brown

Droughns -> Suggs

Edge -> Arrington

Jordan -> Fargas/Crockett

Caddy -> Pittman (unless PPR league)

Willis -> Shaud Williams

This is by no means an exhaustive list, but it does show the value of the handcuff. I omitted the QB battles undecided, or even undecided backup, as well as the RB battles undecided or RBBC situations.

Conclusion:

It all, very simply, comes down to whether or not the player can produce if given the opportunity. If your player has a poor handcuff/backup, you are best off looking for another player to draft that can produce. Drafting Dee Brown as LJ's backup and expecting equivalent production is ridiculous. But, drafting Turner as LT's handcuff could prove very prudent.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

To handcuff or not to handcuff. Many disagree on this topic. I am a handcuffer, because I am risk averse. I try to pick the spots where I take risks. But, in order to handcuff effectively, you must only pick players that can produce if given the opportunity. Many players only handcuff QB or RB, not WR or TE.

There are certain players that have proven themselves not worthy of a pickup as a handcuff. What good does it do if you use a mid-to-late pick on a player as a handcuff and that player, if given the opportunity, could not start for your team even with the void?

Some of the evaluation of handcuffs is the situation, while the other part is talent. A great situation does you no good with a below average fantasy player as a backup/handcuff.

Here are some examples of what I am referring to, both attractive and unattractive handcuffs (and omitting the rookies):

Attractive QBs:

Bulger -> Frerotte

Kitna -> McCown

Leftwich -> Garrard

Vick -> Schaub

Brunell -> Campbell

Unattractive RB:

McNabb -> Detmer

Bledsoe -> Romo

Rivers -> Feeley

Green -> Huard

Roethlisberger -> Batch

Palmer -> Doug Johnson

Simms -> Fiedler

Carr -> Sage R

Eli M -> Lorenzen

Peyton M -> Sorgi (bum shoulder)

Brady -> Cassel

Delhomme -> Weinke

Frye -> Dorsey

ASmith -> Dilfer

Attractive RB:

Alexander -> MoMo

LT -> Turner

Rudi -> Perry

Julius -> Barber

Dunn -> Duckett/Norwood

Westbrook -> Moats

Lewis -> Mike Anderson

Unattractive RB:

Tiki -> Jacobs

Brown -> Morris

Parker -> Staley

SJackson -> Fisher

LJ -> Dee Brown

Droughns -> Suggs

Edge -> Arrington

Jordan -> Fargas/Crockett

Caddy -> Pittman (unless PPR league)

Willis -> Shaud Williams

This is by no means an exhaustive list, but it does show the value of the handcuff. I omitted the QB battles undecided, or even undecided backup, as well as the RB battles undecided or RBBC situations.

Conclusion:

It all, very simply, comes down to whether or not the player can produce if given the opportunity. If your player has a poor handcuff/backup, you are best off looking for another player to draft that can produce. Drafting Dee Brown as LJ's backup and ecpecting equivalent production is ridiculous. But, drafting Turner as LT's handcuff could prove very prudent.

as usual, and a good topic.I may write something on this very subject for this year, in fact.

The opposite is also true here - selection of a RB or QB with little / no handcuff (or better option) gives you confidence in the player that he'll play regardless of a bad week or even a slump.

I like Reuben Droughns and LaMont Jordan even more because both are the clear #1s with little challenge for the position. A stud like Rudi Johnson is slipping in drafts for the same reason - he has a good challenger (Perry) that takes away touches and playing time.

 

[wannabee]

To handcuff or not to handcuff.  Many disagree on this topic.  I am a handcuffer, because I am risk averse.  I try to pick the spots where I take risks.  But, in order to handcuff effectively, you must only pick players that can produce if given the opportunity.  Many players only handcuff QB or RB, not WR or TE. 

There are certain players that have proven themselves not worthy of a pickup as a handcuff.  What good does it do if you use a mid-to-late pick on a player as a handcuff and that player, if given the opportunity, could not start for your team even with the void? 

Some of the evaluation of handcuffs is the situation, while the other part is talent.  A great situation does you no good with a below average fantasy player as a backup/handcuff.

Here are some examples of what I am referring to, both attractive and unattractive handcuffs (and omitting the rookies):

Attractive QBs:

Bulger -> Frerotte

Kitna -> McCown

Leftwich -> Garrard

Vick -> Schaub

Brunell -> Campbell

Unattractive RB:

McNabb -> Detmer

Bledsoe -> Romo

Rivers -> Feeley

Green -> Huard

Roethlisberger -> Batch

Palmer -> Doug Johnson

Simms -> Fiedler

Carr -> Sage R

Eli M -> Lorenzen

Peyton M -> Sorgi (bum shoulder)

Brady -> Cassel

Delhomme -> Weinke

Frye -> Dorsey

ASmith -> Dilfer

Attractive RB:

Alexander -> MoMo

LT -> Turner

Rudi -> Perry

Julius -> Barber

Dunn -> Duckett/Norwood

Westbrook -> Moats

Lewis -> Mike Anderson

Unattractive RB:

Tiki -> Jacobs

Brown -> Morris

Parker -> Staley

SJackson -> Fisher

LJ -> Dee Brown

Droughns -> Suggs

Edge -> Arrington

Jordan -> Fargas/Crockett

Caddy -> Pittman (unless PPR league)

Willis -> Shaud Williams

This is by no means an exhaustive list, but it does show the value of the handcuff.  I omitted the QB battles undecided, or even undecided backup, as well as the RB battles undecided or RBBC situations.

Conclusion:

It all, very simply, comes down to whether or not the player can produce if given the opportunity.  If your player has a poor handcuff/backup, you are best off looking for another player to draft that can produce.  Drafting Dee Brown as LJ's backup and ecpecting equivalent production is ridiculous.  But, drafting Turner as LT's handcuff could prove very prudent.

as usual, and a good topic.I may write something on this very subject for this year, in fact.

The opposite is also true here - selection of a RB or QB with little / no handcuff (or better option) gives you confidence in the player that he'll play regardless of a bad week or even a slump.

I like Reuben Droughns and LaMont Jordan even more because both are the clear #1s with little challenge for the position. A stud like Rudi Johnson is slipping in drafts for the same reason - he has a good challenger (Perry) that takes away touches and playing time.

I totally agree, Jeff. I guess the point of my post is that handcuffs are good, as long as the handcuff can produce. Rube is the solid RB1. Anyone taking Suggs as the handcuff will be disappointed and might be better off draftinga RB like Calhoun, etc. BTW, I would love to see more thoughts on this subject ..... especially an article.

 

[wannabee]

Hi wannabee. I've always appreciated your opinions on here, this is a great idea. I have 7 dynasty leagues I'm in, and feel i have a great shot at the playoffs in all of them. But i have one last new league i'm doing, which drafts in late july/early august.

I have the 5th spot. I want Portis, but know he'll likely go 1.4.

First question is, do you take Jackson, Caddy, or Ronnie Brown at 1.5, and why?

Then what type of strategy would you use in the first, say, 6-8 rounds? This is a BIG money league for me ($250) 1 pt per reception league, passing TDs 4 pts, all others 6 pts. We start 1 QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1 RB or WR Flex, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D.

I apologize if this is long, but I have been in and seen a few drafts lately and have some thoughts/ideas that worked.The very first thing I would do is to look at as many similar drafts as possible to get a feel for how it might play out. I think there is a thread in the Shark Pool with these drafts. In addition, I would study the ADP numbers to get a feel for how others value the players.

First off, unless you are wanting Bush, 1.05 is a tough spot to be. I would ask myself how bad you want Portis. If you really want him, I would suggest trading up to 1.03 (some people are passing on Alexander for Portis) for Portis and not Alexander. If the 1.03 owner is willing, this should cost you something like 1.5, 2.08, 4.08 for 1.03, 2.10, 5.02 or maybe adding 6.08 for 7.02 (or even changing the 5.02 you get back for the 6.10). I realize that you might feel that this is cheap or expensive depending on what you think of Portis. If you use the FBG pick calculator, I would expect to pay a 10% premium to move up. This means that the calculator will say the other guys benefits by 10%, which I think is fair considering the dropoff in talent in most people's mind after Portis.

If you stay put, and like Bush, you are guaranteed of having one of Portis, Alexander or Bush. Do not discout the thought that Alexander might fall to 1.05. I would put the chances at 10%, which is higher than most think.

If you feel that you do not want to pay the price to move up, I would suggest moving down. Admittedly, I am not a Caddy fan. I do like the other two. I would suggest you drop back to 1.07 or 1.08. At 1.08, assuming you like Caddy, Brown, Jackson, and even Bush, you are guaranteed one of them. By trading down, you should expect a similar 10% premium. This might mean you get a 3rd for your 4th (which is bigger than you'd think). This might mean the difference between a RB like Benson or DeAngelo Williams and one like Droughns or Dunn.

If you move down, I want to give you something else to think about. The best draft I have seen this year was from a guy who traded out of the 1st for a 2nd (2.4) and a 3rd (3.7). This draft was full of owners we all know and respect. This one guy, by trading down, had Jordan fall to him. No way that happens often, but there are a ton of RBs lumped together that one has to fall. Westbrook and DomDavis, along with Edge, Willis, and Tiki are almost always available in the 2nd round. I would only trade out of the 1st round if the 2nd rounder in return was a high 2nd rounder.

Here is the guy's roster (we start 1 qb, 1 rb, 1 wr, 1 te 3 flex) and it is ppr:

Player Bye

Holcomb, Kelly BUF QB - 8

Leftwich, Byron JAC QB - 6

Losman, J.P. BUF QB - 8

McNabb, Donovan PHI QB - 9

Anderson, Mike BAL RB - 7

Bennett, Michael NOS RB - 7

Drew, Maurice JAC RB - 6

Duckett, T.J. ATL RB - 5

Jones, Greg JAC RB - 6

Jordan, Lamont OAK RB - 3

Lewis, Jamal BAL RB - 7

Taylor, Fred JAC RB - 6

Boldin, Anquan ARI WR - 9

Bradley, Mark CHI WR - 7

Burleson, Nate SEA WR - 5

Chambers, Chris MIA WR - 8

Engram, Bobby SEA WR - 5

Jones, Brandon TEN WR - 7

Lloyd, Brandon WAS WR - 8

McCareins, Justin NYJ WR - 9

Owens, Terrell DAL WR - 3

Wilson, Cedrick PIT WR - 4

Pollard, Marcus DET TE - 8

Witten, Jason DAL TE - 3

Longwell, Ryan MIN PK - 6

Redskins, Washington WAS Def -

Two other thoughts for you that worked. Two guys used a similar strategy that paid off bigtime. One traded down one round often and received back 2007 1st rounders. For example, he gave a 5th and received a 6th and the 2007 1st. He now has a fair to decent team with 6 2007 first rounders. His roster is full of young guys with upside. The other strategy that worked out great for a guy was trading down a ton. When the draft gets into the 2nd round, people will be trying to trade up for "their guy". He would make a 10% premium and did well. For instance, if you traded from 1.05 to 1.08 and collected a 3rd for your 4th as payment. You now have a 1st, a 2nd, and two 3rds. Now, let's say you trade out of the 1st round (plus a 5th) for a 2nd and a 3rd. Now, you have two 2nds and three 3rds. You now have (2) top 20 players and (5) top 36 players. With this, you have flexibility. You could now trade (2) 3rds for a 2nd and a 4th (if you really wanted a certain player). Or, you could trade a 2nd and 6th for a 3rd and a 4th. There IS a limit to how far you can trade down and not hurt yourself. This is why you need to study the drafts and ADPs so you can guess who will be there for the trade down pick.

Closing thoughts:

a. In this league, there is a guy with LT, Portis, and Eli. But, the cost of getting LT (2nd and (2) 4ths) crippled his ability to get WRs and RB depth. He would tell you he thinks his team stinks. PPR limits the point difference between LT and say a guy like Westbrook. I would urge you to take the draft dominator, uploaded with the current projections, and input your scoring system. You will be surprised what the results look like.

b. Plan your target players two rounds ahead so nothing surprises you. This takes discipline but is worth the effort. It also allows you to evaluate your options (trade up or trade down).

c. Veteran WRs that are studs in PPR always drop. I was able to get Driver in the 8th round and Mason went in the 7th. These two will outproduce many 3rd and 4th round WRs.

I apologize for the length of this, but think it might help you as you plan for your draft.

Good Luck.

This was posted this evening in the shark pool by Nittanylion and seems to be a good fit with the post above:Trading down is a very underrated strategy that can be effectively employed by the savvy drafter...

...when I'm fortunate enough to hold one of the top spots in any of my redraft Leagues, I try to employ a strategy where I trade down twice in the first round...

Not sure how effective this would be in smaller or larger Leagues, as I pretty much favor 12 teamers, but this is what I try to do:

First trade: Into the middle of the first round, for additional picks in the first 12 Rounds. Obviously, it depends on who you're dealing with how much you stand to gain by this, but I like collecting additional picks in the first half of the draft. If you have a Top-3 pick, you should be able to ransom it for a pretty hefty sum...

Second trade: Down to the bottom of the first round, or even out of it, with the Owners drafting at 10, 11, and 12, once again for additional picks, but just as, if not more importantly, swapping picks to improve in-round position as much as possible throughout the first half of the draft. While it's nice having a slew of picks, it can be very effective bunching them up as close to the top as possible, especially when moving down. The Owners with 12/13, 11/14, 10/15 might jump at the chance and overpay for a shot at a guy in the 6-9 range, and if they don't, you're still sitting pretty with that pick, plus the real estate you've gained from the first trade down...

This year, in particular, looks pretty deep early on. There are opportunities to stockpile some real solid depth by shuffling picks around to your advantage...

...just something else to consider, if you have a high first round pick. Of course you have to convince yourself to go without the Uber-Stud staring you in the face if you have a top 3, or even top 5 pick. That can be daunting, for sure, and I woudn't blame anyone for standing pat...

 

[wannabee]

For redraft leagues only, I am planning on staying away from all Tennessee Titan players, with the exception of either LenDale White or Chris Brown. One will emerge as the guy in preseason (probably White). I will look for Brown in the late rounds. I think the perceived backup RB will have a good deal of upside and a much lower price tag. If White, for some reason, holds out, I will be happy to take Brown earlier since I think rookie RBs have such a steep learning curve anyway and the loss of training camp impairs the upside of the rookie season (a post above details this thought) .

If White comes into preseason as the starter, I would love Brown as a RB4 in the 10-12 round.

The reason (s) I am opposed to the other Titan skill players in redraft leagues. I read a quote by Jeff Fisher saying he wants to run the ball alot. With the Titan defense what it is, I expect the Titan offense to want to try to control the games with a ball control running game. Even with the probable high amount of passing, it is difficult now to predict several things:

Who will be the QB, and for how long? Volek looks to be opening game starter. But, Fisher has said Young will see action this year. In addition, there has been rumor that Collins might sign in Tennessee thus muddying the QB waters even more.

The Titans signed Givens in the offseason and Drew Bennett seems to be almost healthy. But, which will be the go to guy? Too early to tell. I think we infer too much from the great streak Volek and Bennett put together in 2004. Plus, the Titans have 3 fairly talented WRs entering their 2 year, as well as Bobby Wade (who has impressed some in OTAs). Add on top of this the talented group of TEs. Mainly due to lack of talented and healthy WRs, the Titan TEs were targeted over 200 times in 2005. That is huge. Those targets were mainly evenly split between Troupe and Kinney, with Scaife getting some, too.

To me, these Titan receivers (WR and TE) will be overvalued for my risk tolerance. At present, White is gaining on Brown in ADP. Brown is down 5 spots in the recent ADP and White is up 7 spots overall. I expect this trend to continue.

Bennett is up 8 spots overall in the recent ADP and I do expect this to continue as well. He is valued (by ADP) over: Stallworth, Matt Jones, and even Kennison. Bennett is WR31 and Givens is WR47 in the recent ADP. Givens is dropping and Bennett is gaining.

Even still, I think the situation is filled with uncertainty. The only happy fantasy owners will be the ones that take one Tennessee WR and guess right or guess which QB will start the games they need them to (assuming any Titan QB will be a fantasy backup anyway). We still do not know how Troupe and Kinney will be used in the passing game, either, assuming the Titan WRs are healthy.

Seems muddy to me, with not a ton of upside, so I will stay away with the exception of the backup RB.

I found this blurb which more solidifies my position. I do realize it is still July. But, this is not the first time Fisher has said this type of thing.Titans | Team committed to running the ball

Published Wed Jul 5 8:34:00 a.m. ET 2006

(KFFL) Jim Wyatt, of the Tennessean, reports the Tennessee Titans are going to try to run the ball more and balance their offense this season. The past two seasons the team has passed 1,183 times and ran 817. "Obviously, we're going to get back to old-school football and run it,'' Tennessee Titans head coach Jeff Fisher said. "That's our intention, that's our desire, and that's where the work has been emphasized this offseason. As far as who does it? Well, we have some great options right now. We will not have a shortage of running backs by no means.''

 

[wannabee]

As usual, I welcome any and all thoughts, insights or comments.

 

[glock]

'Sup Wannabe?

A Little auction/keeper scenario:

Auction values in a keeper league can get really skewed based on supply and demand.

Case in point is a 12 team $200 auction cap 16 position keeper league(QB,RB,RB,WR,WR,TE,K,D) .5/rec, all TDs 6pts where top 12 RB salaries can range from $50-$100. Having just expanded from 10 to 12 teams, two owners have no keepers and hence alot of cash.

This year we are looking at the possibility that 12 of the top 15 RB's will be kept. That means that the 12th ranked RB could go at auction for top $ simply because he is a must have for an owner without one. Pre-draft, an owner might keep the 12th RB for more $$ than usual for the same reason, rather than risk not being able to afford one at auction.

LT goes back in the pool. Edges goes back in the pool.

I can keep 4 players this year: LJ @ $11, Chester Talyor @ $4 and TO @ $25 are my givens. Thanks to LJ's miniscule salary, I could:

1. Take a shot at teaming him with LT, but that could get seriously ugly- perhaps a record $$ for a RB.

2. I could go after Edge instead. Still not going to be cheap.

3. I could also keep DD for more than I would like @ $55 and add another top notch WR and go for a top 5 QB.

It's early and the jury is still out on CT and DD, but the wheels are turning.

Your thoughts?

 

[wannabee]

'Sup Wannabe?

A Little auction/keeper scenario:

Auction values in a keeper league can get really skewed based on supply and demand.

Case in point is a 12 team $200 auction cap 16 position keeper league(QB,RB,RB,WR,WR,TE,K,D) .5/rec, all TDs 6pts where top 12 RB salaries can range from $50-$100. Having just expanded from 10 to 12 teams, two owners have no keepers and hence alot of cash.

This year we are looking at the possibility that 12 of the top 15 RB's will be kept. That means that the 12th ranked RB could go at auction for top $ simply because he is a must have for an owner without one. Pre-draft, an owner might keep the 12th RB for more $$ than usual for the same reason, rather than risk not being able to afford one at auction.

LT goes back in the pool. Edges goes back in the pool.

I can keep 4 players this year: LJ @ $11, Chester Talyor @ $4 and TO @ $25 are my givens. Thanks to LJ's miniscule salary, I could:

1. Take a shot at teaming him with LT, but that could get seriously ugly- perhaps a record $$ for a RB.

2. I could go after Edge instead. Still not going to be cheap.

3. I could also keep DD for more than I would like @ $55 and add another top notch WR and go for a top 5 QB.

It's early and the jury is still out on CT and DD, but the wheels are turning.

Your thoughts?

a few things come to mind:I think I would much rather LT for $100 than Edge for $75. With little supply, I suspect the second best RB (Edge) will be bid through the roof compared to value. I also think that DD, if healthy (huge IF), $55 seems cheap. If there is any question as to the health of DD's knees, LT for $100 would be a much better option.

The reason I said $55 is cheap for DD, when healthy, is that in PPR leagues he scores almost the same ppg as LT. Half PPR changes a little but not a ton.

I look at adding LT in proportion to your RBs as a whole. Since you did well with LJ and CT, you might be able to better afford LT. Having $115 (of $200) in LT, LJ, and CT would be huge, especially with TO on board, too.

I think I would much rather have LT and a QB like Bledsoe (with 6 pt TDs) than Edge and Brady. I assume this would be close to the same $$$.

Hope this helps.

 

[wannabee]

I would like to discuss the concept of value. Almost every one of my posts has that word in it. There are many ways "value" is used. Around Footballguys.com, the word "value" refers to relative value. This basically means that player's value is weighed against the value of all players at all positions. This is simply the VBD (Value Based Drafting) that FBG speaks often about and developed. I will use the word "value" as meaning that player's worth as opposed to other players or picks. This "value" has nothing to do with talent or fantasy production, just the accepted value placed on the player.

I know each player's value is a little different depending on the league, and the league scoring rules, league size and starting lineup regulations. For instance, in PPR leagues, some WRs are worth more than others. In non-PPR leagues, these two WRs could flip flop in value. The same is true for RBs, and how the league scores yardage. Jerome Bettis and Stephen Davis were awesome values in leagues that gave little scoring for yards. Also, a league's starting lineup rules are important. In a league that you only have to start one RB, or get to start 4 RBs, or 2 QBs, change player values.

Think of each player's value (generically) being on a scale from 1 to 100. I think this "value" is derived from the public perception. This public perception is similar to a market philosophy where the market determines the price. In fantasy football, player values are derived from a multitude of variables. One is ADP (or an average of where that player was drafted). But, ADP alone is flawed because it does not take into account league size, scoring, or starting lineups. Another market variable is public perception. This can include a player coming off of injury, a player coming off of a huge (but abnormal) year, a player that is worth more in the NFL than fantasy football, and many more. There are other market variables that affect the "value" of the player.

This value fluctuates up and down and is very dynamic. There are several factors that help fluctaute the value including: injury (to said player or other players on team), coaching change, personnel change (trade, cut, or sign of teammates that affect value), etc.

This is all to set up how we, as fantasy footballers, can take advantage of this "value". Remember that this "value" is the player's perceived worth compared to other players of different positions on all teams. The fantasy owners that are the best at being able to see a situation where a player is undervalued as compared to his talent usually dominate. They are able to "buy low" and "sell high". A few situations that come to mind (for dynasty, but the theory works for redraft, too):

a. acquiring TO last season after suspension while his value was low. At his lowest, TO's value was approximately even with Wayne. Now, it is up there even with the almost any and every WR ... and above many RBs. This same principle is true for those acquiring McNabb cheap when he was injured.

b. trading away Kevin Jones this time last year when his value was greater than his talent and upside. This is a very important strategy. Some players are valued at times above the level that they could ever produce. Willis last year at this time applies as well. I foresee Caddy as the RB that fits the bill for this year. We will know this time next year. Brown could apply also. But, Caddy is valued by many as the 5th best RB in fantasy. I cannot buy it.

c. holding, or acquiring, stable and non-sexy players like Dunn, Tiki, and Mason at low prices compared to their fantasy production. This sounds simple, but you should see the drafts where Dunn goes 2-3 rounds behind Julius Jones or Jamal Lewis or Kevin Jones. Who is the better "value"?

Conclusion:

The "art" and "skill" that differentiates the very good fantasy owners from the average owner is the ability to identify players and situations where the value is either too high or too low compared to that player's fantasy production, taking into account the upside (or ceiling) of the fantasy production. I would urge you to keep track of the ADP, other trades in your league, and on this board.

Many people use the ADP as a basis to judge what others think of each player. Think of how flawed that is and how you (we) can take advantage. Usually, ADPs are for a long period of time and do not take into account current events ... which throws off the ADP (player's value). I would look to see where the "sexy" and "groupthink" players are listed. I bet they are higher than they should be. Matt Jones is about as sexy (in a fantasy football way) a player as there is. His ADP is way too high for the expected level of production, imo. Andre Johnson is the same way. For a good example, think of how many times in redraft leagues over the past couple of years that Ashley Lelie was drafted ahead of Rod Smith. How crazy does that look now? The key is to identify the Smith's and Lelie's of the league. This is where knowing a player's value and comparing it to the talent (and fantasy production) comes into play in full force.

Hope this helps.

Today, I had a follow up thought on this. I think we get too caught up in "winning" on value when trading. Many times I will go into a trade knowing I will "lose" on value in the trade. But, the trade addressed a need on my team. This need could be a positional need, a much-needed handcuff, or to cover injury/bye week. In these cases, all general values do not strictly apply. Yes, they are good as a guide. In addition, it is easier to get these trades accepted since you are overpaying to address the need.

 

[glock]

'Sup Wannabe?

A Little auction/keeper scenario:

Auction values in a keeper league can get really skewed based on supply and demand.

Case in point is a 12 team $200 auction cap 16 position keeper league(QB,RB,RB,WR,WR,TE,K,D) .5/rec, all TDs 6pts where top 12 RB salaries can range from $50-$100. Having just expanded from 10 to 12 teams, two owners have no keepers and hence alot of cash.

This year we are looking at the possibility that 12 of the top 15 RB's will be kept. That means that the 12th ranked RB could go at auction for top $ simply because he is a must have for an owner without one. Pre-draft, an owner might keep the 12th RB for more $$ than usual for the same reason, rather than risk not being able to afford one at auction.

LT goes back in the pool. Edges goes back in the pool.

I can keep 4 players this year: LJ @ $11, Chester Talyor @ $4 and TO @ $25 are my givens. Thanks to LJ's miniscule salary, I could:

1. Take a shot at teaming him with LT, but that could get seriously ugly- perhaps a record $$ for a RB.

2. I could go after Edge instead. Still not going to be cheap.

3. I could also keep DD for more than I would like @ $55 and add another top notch WR and go for a top 5 QB.

It's early and the jury is still out on CT and DD, but the wheels are turning.

Your thoughts? 

a few things come to mind:I think I would much rather LT for $100 than Edge for $75. With little supply, I suspect the second best RB (Edge) will be bid through the roof compared to value. I also think that DD, if healthy (huge IF), $55 seems cheap. If there is any question as to the health of DD's knees, LT for $100 would be a much better option.

The reason I said $55 is cheap for DD, when healthy, is that in PPR leagues he scores almost the same ppg as LT. Half PPR changes a little but not a ton.

I look at adding LT in proportion to your RBs as a whole. Since you did well with LJ and CT, you might be able to better afford LT. Having $115 (of $200) in LT, LJ, and CT would be huge, especially with TO on board, too.

I think I would much rather have LT and a QB like Bledsoe (with 6 pt TDs) than Edge and Brady. I assume this would be close to the same $$$.

Hope this helps.

LT could go for $115 himself given the keeper senario. It all boils down to:

LJ/DD/CT/TO & supporting cast <> LJ/LT or Edge/CT/TO & lesser supporting cast.

The gamble? Cutting DD loose and committing to LT/Edge...AND LOSING OUT! I would need one helluva plan C- Manning, another stud WR, a top 3 TE, uber Kicker and D's if that were to transpire...

...and if the auction cooperated to that point.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

'Sup Wannabe?

A Little auction/keeper scenario:

Auction values in a keeper league can get really skewed based on supply and demand.

Case in point is a 12 team $200 auction cap 16 position keeper league(QB,RB,RB,WR,WR,TE,K,D) .5/rec, all TDs 6pts where top 12 RB salaries can range from $50-$100. Having just expanded from 10 to 12 teams, two owners have no keepers and hence alot of cash.

This year we are looking at the possibility that 12 of the top 15 RB's will be kept. That means that the 12th ranked RB could go at auction for top $ simply because he is a must have for an owner without one. Pre-draft, an owner might keep the 12th RB for more $$ than usual for the same reason, rather than risk not being able to afford one at auction.

LT goes back in the pool. Edges goes back in the pool.

I can keep 4 players this year: LJ @ $11, Chester Talyor @ $4 and TO @ $25 are my givens. Thanks to LJ's miniscule salary, I could:

1. Take a shot at teaming him with LT, but that could get seriously ugly- perhaps a record $$ for a RB.

2. I could go after Edge instead. Still not going to be cheap.

3. I could also keep DD for more than I would like @ $55 and add another top notch WR and go for a top 5 QB.

It's early and the jury is still out on CT and DD, but the wheels are turning.

Your thoughts?

a few things come to mind:I think I would much rather LT for $100 than Edge for $75. With little supply, I suspect the second best RB (Edge) will be bid through the roof compared to value. I also think that DD, if healthy (huge IF), $55 seems cheap. If there is any question as to the health of DD's knees, LT for $100 would be a much better option.

The reason I said $55 is cheap for DD, when healthy, is that in PPR leagues he scores almost the same ppg as LT. Half PPR changes a little but not a ton.

I look at adding LT in proportion to your RBs as a whole. Since you did well with LJ and CT, you might be able to better afford LT. Having $115 (of $200) in LT, LJ, and CT would be huge, especially with TO on board, too.

I think I would much rather have LT and a QB like Bledsoe (with 6 pt TDs) than Edge and Brady. I assume this would be close to the same $$$.

Hope this helps.

I'd pick a number in mind and push LT2 up to that level. Then if he goes higher, at least you know you put in the shot.What TEs are available? Gates?

I'd buy Gates for whatever it took with such $$ available, AND I'd even let DD go at $55.

Bid DD up to $50 and then if you get him, you saved $5. If not, you forced money out of other owners (a good goal).

Get rookie / project RBs like you did last year in Addai, LenDale White, DeAngelo Williams, and even Maurice Drew or Calhoun.

Owning TO + LJ + CTaylor is a great start, and you'll have only spent $40? A Top 3 RB and another good starter at RB (Taylor's rank is ?able) plus a Top 10 WR - add Gates for maybe $30-40 and you have a great lineup.

Even if you get DD back for $50, you still did well.

 

[wannabee]

I would prioritize:

LT for $100-115

DD for $55

I would avoid Edge. I would rather have a healthy DD. If you go with DD, I would get a QB like Bledsoe, Bulger, Brooks, Culpepper, etc and avoid the high $ QBs.

Jeff brings up a good point in Gates. Getting DD and Gates would be nice. I would also look for Terry Glenn cheap to pair with TO.

I still think LT/LJ with only $155 spent is not horrible at all with CT and TO, also. That would be a great team.

My second choice, only if DD is healthy, would be to keep DD and try to get stud WRs &/or Gates.

 

[glock]

I would prioritize:

LT for $100-115

DD for $55

I would avoid Edge.  I would rather have a healthy DD.  If you go with DD, I would get a QB like Bledsoe, Bulger, Brooks, Culpepper, etc and avoid the high $ QBs.

Jeff brings up a good point in Gates.  Getting DD and Gates would be nice.  I would also look for Terry Glenn cheap to pair with TO.

I still think LT/LJ with only $155 spent is not horrible at all with CT and TO, also.  That would be a great team. 

My second choice, only if DD is healthy, would be to keep DD and try to get stud WRs &/or Gates.

I like the way you guys think. Unfortunately Gates will be kept @ $6.

Interestingly enough, KC, SD aaand DAL all have week 3 byes this year which can be construed as a plus or a minus. It means only one game without the LJ/LT/TO trio on the field. It also means a week 3 write off.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

So Glock,You have:

QB-RB- LJ ($11)RB- WR- TO ($25)WR-TE-K-D-B1 - CTaylor ($4) B2 - B8 to fill

$40 on 3 players.So if you spend $115 on LT2 you'd be at:

QB-RB- LJ ($11)RB- LT2 ($115)WR- TO ($25)WR-TE-K-D-B1 - CTaylor ($4) B2 - B8 to fill

That's $155 for 4.You could do this:

QB- Top 12 QB ($8)RB- LJ ($11)RB- LT2 ($115)WR- TO ($25)WR- Top 25 WR ($15)TE- Top 12 TE ($5)K- $1-2D- $1-2B1 - CTaylor ($4) B2 - B8 to fill

That's $185-187 for everyone, and $15-17 for your 7 bench players.Or you could keep DD:

QB- Top 5 QB ($20-30)RB- DD ($55)WR- TO ($25)WR- Top 10 WR ($25-30)TE- Top 12 TE ($5)K- $1-2D- $1-2B1 - CTaylor ($4) B2 - B8 to fill

That's $136-153 for everyone, and $47-64 for your 7 bench players. That's huge and you could dominate in a lot of spots (Top K and D on your list should be bought).So again, I'd drive either keep DDavis or try and buy him back in the auction if you don't get LT2 (who better come up first in the auction for you).Food for thought. If you think you can fill a bench on the cheap and get good values (or less $ than I stated) - get LT and go with $20 or so for your bench.

 

[glock]

So Glock,

You have:

QB-

RB- LJ ($11)

RB-

WR- TO ($25)

WR-

TE-

K-

D-

B1 - CTaylor ($4)

B2 - B8 to fill

$40 on 3 players.So if you spend $115 on LT2 you'd be at:

QB-

RB- LJ ($11)

RB- LT2 ($115)

WR- TO ($25)

WR-

TE-

K-

D-

B1 - CTaylor ($4)

B2 - B8 to fill

That's $155 for 4.You could do this:

QB- Top 12 QB ($8)

RB- LJ ($11)

RB- LT2 ($115)

WR- TO ($25)

WR- Top 25 WR ($15)

TE- Top 12 TE ($5)

K- $1-2

D- $1-2

B1 - CTaylor ($4)

B2 - B8 to fill

That's $185-187 for everyone, and $15-17 for your 7 bench players.Or you could keep DD:

QB- Top 5 QB ($20-30)

RB- DD ($55)

WR- TO ($25)

WR- Top 10 WR ($25-30)

TE- Top 12 TE ($5)

K- $1-2

D- $1-2

B1 - CTaylor ($4)

B2 - B8 to fill

That's $136-153 for everyone, and $47-64 for your 7 bench players. That's huge and you could dominate in a lot of spots (Top K and D on your list should be bought).So again, I'd drive either keep DDavis or try and buy him back in the auction if you don't get LT2 (who better come up first in the auction for you).

Food for thought. If you think you can fill a bench on the cheap and get good values (or less $ than I stated) - get LT and go with $20 or so for your bench.

Wannabee/JP-I noticed a typo in my original post. It's a 15 position roster, not 16.

Which only means a couple more bucks to plug into your equations.

I appreciate the time spent on my post. I've never seen keepers fall in such a way as to drive RB $$ up like this season. Having a #1 for $11 makes this a potentially special season. I don't want it to pass me by.

 

[wannabee]

To handcuff or not to handcuff. Many disagree on this topic. I am a handcuffer, because I am risk averse. I try to pick the spots where I take risks. But, in order to handcuff effectively, you must only pick players that can produce if given the opportunity. Many players only handcuff QB or RB, not WR or TE.

There are certain players that have proven themselves not worthy of a pickup as a handcuff. What good does it do if you use a mid-to-late pick on a player as a handcuff and that player, if given the opportunity, could not start for your team even with the void?

Some of the evaluation of handcuffs is the situation, while the other part is talent. A great situation does you no good with a below average fantasy player as a backup/handcuff.

Here are some examples of what I am referring to, both attractive and unattractive handcuffs (and omitting the rookies):

Attractive QBs:

Bulger -> Frerotte

Kitna -> McCown

Leftwich -> Garrard

Vick -> Schaub

Brunell -> Campbell

Unattractive RB:

McNabb -> Detmer

Bledsoe -> Romo

Rivers -> Feeley

Green -> Huard

Roethlisberger -> Batch

Palmer -> Doug Johnson

Simms -> Fiedler

Carr -> Sage R

Eli M -> Lorenzen

Peyton M -> Sorgi (bum shoulder)

Brady -> Cassel

Delhomme -> Weinke

Frye -> Dorsey

ASmith -> Dilfer

Attractive RB:

Alexander -> MoMo

LT -> Turner

Rudi -> Perry

Julius -> Barber

Dunn -> Duckett/Norwood

Westbrook -> Moats

Lewis -> Mike Anderson

Unattractive RB:

Tiki -> Jacobs

Brown -> Morris

Parker -> Staley

SJackson -> Fisher

LJ -> Dee Brown

Droughns -> Suggs

Edge -> Arrington

Jordan -> Fargas/Crockett

Caddy -> Pittman (unless PPR league)

Willis -> Shaud Williams

This is by no means an exhaustive list, but it does show the value of the handcuff. I omitted the QB battles undecided, or even undecided backup, as well as the RB battles undecided or RBBC situations.

Conclusion:

It all, very simply, comes down to whether or not the player can produce if given the opportunity. If your player has a poor handcuff/backup, you are best off looking for another player to draft that can produce. Drafting Dee Brown as LJ's backup and ecpecting equivalent production is ridiculous. But, drafting Turner as LT's handcuff could prove very prudent.

On this subject, I have found two other good posts/articles:Doug Drinen posted this:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=249994

Think about lottery tickets and insurance policies.

If you think about it, they are very similar. In both cases, you pay a little money and probably don't get anything in return. But in both cases you might get a big payoff. The difference is that, with an insurance policy, you get the money exactly when you need it most. If you have Rudi Johnson, then Chris Perry is an insurance policy. If you don't have Rudi Johnson, then Chris Perry is a lottery ticket.

An insurance policy is, of course, a tried-and-true risk minimization strategy. So if you're the kind of person who likes to minimize risk, handcuffing makes sense. If not, it doesn't.

But keep in mind that it never makes sense to pay much for an insurance policy that pays you 10% of the value of your house if it burns down. Such policies have gone by the names Justin Watson and Byron Hanspard in the past. No reason to buy those when you can get a nice double-wide trailer named Frank Gore or Fred Taylor. It'll keep you dry until your house heals from its high ankle sprain.

And ConstruxBoy wrote an indepth article in 2005. Below is the conclusion and the link. Also, there are some other good posts in that thread:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...165&hl=handcuff

VI. Overall Conclusions from the Study

"What does it all mean, Basil?"

If all this analysis of statistical data has left you as confused as Austin Powers, let me try to draw some conclusions using my article against handcuffing from 2 years ago. In that article, I listed 5 reasons why you should not handcuff your star RBs:

1) Not sure which RB is actually the #1 backup

I believe that this issue is still warranted. You must be sure of the actual backup to the RB1 before you draft your handcuff. The Ravens are a good example, as Musa Smith lost you 2.8 points a game over the course of the season, while Chester Taylor gained you 7.9 points per game in his 5 games as the MRB. So in those 5 games where you were trying to backup your starter, Jamal Lewis, you effectively lost 10.7 points per game if you drafted Smith instead of Taylor.

In some rare cases, such as MIN, you could get lucky and have both Onterrio Smith and Mewelde Moore perform as the handcuff. But those cases were few and far between.

2) Not sure that the backup can perform as well as the starter

I believe that this issue also still has some merit, although it is not clear-cut. When we looked at the top handcuff performers, we generally saw RBs who were pretty highly touted coming into the NFL and/or played on good offensive teams. Conversely, the poorest handcuff performers had not shown as much at the NFL level and were on ineffective offensive teams.

So even though some successful handcuff RBs did buck these trends, it still might be a good rule of thumb to only look for handcuffs who have shown some NFL skills and are on better than average offensive teams. This season, I might look at guys like Larry Johnson. Najeh Davenport, Anthony Thomas, Mewelde Moore and Derrick Blaylock.

3) Limited Roster Space Wasted

As shown on the Team Totals tab, this is a concern if the handcuff you draft never starts. In those cases, you likely passed on several RBs who could have contributed a couple points a game more for your team. However, the excellent success of the handcuffs that do start should override that negative of a wasted roster space.

To show this more clearly, we found out that on average, the handcuff RBs that start a game score 13.3 points. We also learned that handcuffs start 22.5% of the games. The other 77.5% of the games, your handcuff is sitting on the bench losing you about 2 points per game. So we can calculate the expected handcuff value by multiplying 22.5% by 13.3 points and adding it to the product of 77.5% and (2.0) points. The positive result is 2.99 points a game and negative result is (1.23) points a game. The total of these results, 1.77 points per game, can be thought of as the expected result of drafting a handcuff.

4) Limited Draft Possibilities

Nothing discussed here touches on the topic of limited trade possibilities, although I still believe that there is value in drafting another prominent handcuff and possibly trading him to the owner of the RB1.

5) Bulls-eye on your chest during the draft/auction

Likewise, there was not any discussion of this effect in my study, but again I still believe that this is a downfall of picking a well know candidate for a handcuff. I have already seen this in several drafts this year where the Priest Holmes owner has everyone trying to jump in and grab Larry Johnson before he can take Johnson as Holmes' handcuff.

VII. Final Thoughts

A couple of final thoughts:

1) Keep in mind that this study was done for a small dataset, 15 leagues in one season. It may be true that 2004 had many more successful handcuffs than a normal season. Or that these 15 leagues drafted many more handcuffs than a normal league.

2) The most important fact about drafting handcuff RBs that I have not yet discussed is that you must get them for a decent value. As mentioned above, I've seen Larry Johnson go way too early in several drafts this year. You are dramatically increasing the risk level of this practice if you take handcuff players too early because that increases the possibility of one or more of the 3 MORBs being great players. They may be full time RB starters as a matter of fact. You also miss out on great players at other positions.

3) I'd also like to mention that you've probably noticed that most of the MRB starts by handcuffs are later in the season. If you do draft a handcuff, you may want to use the strength of schedule indicator to try to grab some other players with favorable early schedules. Having Larry Johnson or Jerome Bettis run wild for you at the end of the year is likely no good if you started 1-6.

4) Finally, this study made me warm up to the idea of handcuffing star RBs. If done the correct way, with risk minimized as much as possible, you have the effective result of adding at least 1.77 points a week to your team. Obviously, you could add even more points than that.

So if the situation arises, don't be afraid to draft a handcuff RB as long as you look at all the success factors of that situation and minimize the risk as much as possible. It can help make you a Fantasy Football Champion!

 

[wannabee]

I will have a few hours tomorrow to look some stuff up. Anyone have a topic? If not, I will try to put out some "buy low" or "sell high" posts.

Also, please offer any feedback, whether dissenting or agreeing.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

OK. I have the guy I've been in negotiations with on the hook with this offer. Thought I'd run it by you one more time to see what you think.

As you recall we are a 12-team, 14 rounds redraft, 2-keeper league. Right now my two Keepers are Fitz (my 3rd round pick at 3.04) and Dunn (my 4th round pick at 4.09) I hold the 1.04 draft slot, he holds the 1.08 draft slot. I know his one keeper will be LJ at 5.08, not sure of the other...but it won't be anything higher than a 6th rounder.

I proposed the following trade:

He gets from me: 1.04 (#4), 2.09 (#21), 5.04 (#52), and 6.09 (#69)

I get from him: 1.08 (#8), 2.05 (#17), 4.05 (#41) and 6.04 (#65)

Essentially we swap 1st, 2nd and 6th Rounders, and I get an extra 4th, he gets an extra 5th.

Picks after the Trade:

I would have: #8 (from him), #17 (from him), #28 (mine already-Fitz), #41 (from him), #45 (mine already-Dunn), #65 from him)

He would have: #4 (from me), #21 (from me), #32 (his already), #52 (from me), #56 (his already-LJ), and #69 (from me)

I know I've been really high on trying to get Portis at 1.04, but I have serious concerns that he will not be there at 1.04 (I just know the guy ahead of me's drafting tendencies), and instead I'll be almost forced to take Tiki because of his ADP (However, I worry about his age, his schedule, and if his numbers truly will be there...we've discussed this at length).

I've run the numbers through the Pick Value Calculator (however it does not take into consideration Keepers) and it calculates the trade:

Me: 3748 pts

Him: 3698 pts

The kicker in my favor seems to be that 4th and 5th Round move, however, his current 5th Rounder is LJ, so the numbers may not be as far away as they seems right now. I look at it as I'll be getting 5 out of the top 45 picks (instead of only 4), be in a little better position to get some value in the 2nd (maybe a top 3 REC to pair with Fitz) along with my additional 4th Rounder I get from him and essentially get back into the end of the 5th Round with that early 6th round pick at 6.05.

I just see the value being the same from about 1.05 to 1.09 right now and I'm dead set at getting Portis or doing a deal to move down in the 1st. I really want to go RB in the 1st because the value is still there, even at 1.08. P. Manning might even be a possibilty. But the value at 2.05 is much better than at 2.09, especially if I go with my plan at this point, REC....This seems like a no brainer to me.

Your thoughts?

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

Incidently, the guy I'm dealing with on this trade is not in my division. I'd only have to play him 1 time out of division...if that makes a difference...

 

[wannabee]

OK. I have the guy I've been in negotiations with on the hook with this offer. Thought I'd run it by you one more time to see what you think.

As you recall we are a 12-team, 14 rounds redraft, 2-keeper league. Right now my two Keepers are Fitz (my 3rd round pick at 3.04) and Dunn (my 4th round pick at 4.09) I hold the 1.04 draft slot, he holds the 1.08 draft slot. I know his one keeper will be LJ at 5.08, not sure of the other...but it won't be anything higher than a 6th rounder.

I proposed the following trade:

He gets from me: 1.04 (#4), 2.09 (#21), 5.04 (#52), and 6.09 (#69)

I get from him: 1.08 (#8), 2.05 (#17), 4.05 (#41) and 6.04 (#65)

Essentially we swap 1st, 2nd and 6th Rounders, and I get an extra 4th, he gets an extra 5th.

Picks after the Trade:

I would have: #8 (from him), #17 (from him), #28 (mine already-Fitz), #41 (from him), #45 (mine already-Dunn), #65 from him)

He would have: #4 (from me), #21 (from me), #32 (his already), #52 (from me), #56 (his already-LJ), and #69 (from me)

I know I've been really high on trying to get Portis at 1.04, but I have serious concerns that he will not be there at 1.04 (I just know the guy ahead of me's drafting tendencies), and instead I'll be almost forced to take Tiki because of his ADP (However, I worry about his age, his schedule, and if his numbers truly will be there...we've discussed this at length).

I've run the numbers through the Pick Value Calculator (however it does not take into consideration Keepers) and it calculates the trade:

Me: 3748 pts

Him: 3698 pts

The kicker in my favor seems to be that 4th and 5th Round move, however, his current 5th Rounder is LJ, so the numbers may not be as far away as they seems right now. I look at it as I'll be getting 5 out of the top 45 picks (instead of only 4), be in a little better position to get some value in the 2nd (maybe a top 3 REC to pair with Fitz) along with my additional 4th Rounder I get from him and essentially get back into the end of the 5th Round with that early 6th round pick at 6.05.

I just see the value being the same from about 1.05 to 1.09 right now and I'm dead set at getting Portis or doing a deal to move down in the 1st. I really want to go RB in the 1st because the value is still there, even at 1.08. P. Manning might even be a possibilty. But the value at 2.05 is much better than at 2.09, especially if I go with my plan at this point, REC....This seems like a no brainer to me.

Your thoughts?

To recap from memory, and way too lazy to look back:You are fine with whichever RB you are left with at 1.09. You expect it to be Brown, Caddy, Tiki, or SJackson. If these players are on the board, I would not even consider Manning.

Basically, the trade helps you get a much better WR in round two as the dropoff in talent is about at this pick.

I like the trade for you giving your thoughts on who should be available. One other thought for your draft. I would look to get Norwood, to pair with Dunn, and because if Dunn goes down and Norwood is your keeper - you might have a 10th round, for example, keeper. That would be nice.

I think you have a good plan. I like it.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

Actually, I'm thinking that one of either Edge, Jackson, Westbrook, McGahee...or Manning of course if I decide to go that route instead...

Brown and Caddy are Keepers on other squads this year. I doubt if Tiki will last until 1.08...