Domination
Footballguy
I might disagree w/ you wannabee. But only on the aspect of SA for LT, not LJ. The ability to get younger, and still maintain a 20 TD RB. Plus adding LT's rec ability, I think I would make the deal.
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wannabee Strategy Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter wannabee
- Start date
supermark_28
Footballguy
i've thought about getting younger,this is a 2 veterans keeper league but the LT owner has another offer on the table which will seriously weaken his team and since it's my brother i'd rather see him get weaker than stronger. if this was a ppr league this deal would be done but i have concerns about whether or not rivers can keep the defense honest....
wannabee
Footballguy
OK. I understand your thinking. But, please consider these facts:In one less year, LT has more touches than Alexander. This is surprising to most people. Alexander has played one more season in the NFL, but we forget Alexander spent the first year in the league sitting behind Ricky Watters. So, the age thing is not an issue, neither is touches since LT has more.
I think this comes down to personal preference. This league, iirc, is not a ppr league so TDs and yds are what matters. I think it is a close call. I would not argue with anyone saying to take LT instead of SA, but I prefer SA in this format.
Here are their stats:
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/235249
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/187382
Here are a few stats to think of:
I ran a sort by RBs with atleast 110 total yards or 2 TD to see how many very good games the RBs have had in the last three years. Surprisingly, Tiki tops the list with 34 out of 48 games. But, in second is Alexander with 31 out of 48. LT is tied with a few others at 30. Those tied with him are: Portis and James.
Basically, it is close to a toss up coming down to personal preference. I welcome any discussion on the other side of the coin for those that disagree.
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stanmarino13
Footballguy
In a 8 player keeper league I will be keeping:
J Plummer
B Favre
Larry Johnson
Caddillac Williams
Ronnie Brown
Reuben Droughns
Steve Smith
Daryl Jackson
We start 2qb/3rb/3wr/1te every week.
The draft will be a FA/Rook Draft. I have the 8th/14th/20th/26th/32nd/39th picks in the first 4 rounds. Starting 3 rbs each week in this 12 team league there will be a huge run on rookie rbs to start the draft, but not knowing exactly whos goin where, do u think its critical that i draft Cutler to protect having Plummer? This will be the last year i keep Favre so i will need a replacement for him at qb wether i try to draft it this year or next.
J Plummer
B Favre
Larry Johnson
Caddillac Williams
Ronnie Brown
Reuben Droughns
Steve Smith
Daryl Jackson
We start 2qb/3rb/3wr/1te every week.
The draft will be a FA/Rook Draft. I have the 8th/14th/20th/26th/32nd/39th picks in the first 4 rounds. Starting 3 rbs each week in this 12 team league there will be a huge run on rookie rbs to start the draft, but not knowing exactly whos goin where, do u think its critical that i draft Cutler to protect having Plummer? This will be the last year i keep Favre so i will need a replacement for him at qb wether i try to draft it this year or next.
wannabee
Footballguy
I think you should grab Cutler at 1.08. Overall, he adds the most value to your team. If he is gone for some odd reason, it means that either Leinart or Young is there. Take one of the rookie QBs at 1.08. When you say that the rookie RBs will be going quick, I assume that the top five RBs (Bush, Maroney, Williams, White, & Addai) will be gone. This would guarantee you a rookie QB. But, another question: What QBs were thrown back and not kept? Are there viable options that were not kept? The reason I asked is if a decent QB is available, and you wanted Davis or Norwood instead, what are your options. I know that in my 7 player keeper league, there are very good QB options available in the draft.
But, in the end, since you start two QBs, I think you are definitely forced to take Cutler at 1.08. The good news is that a guy like Norwood might drop to your second pick. You have 4 solid RBs. They are the strength of your team. Your QBs need address way more than your RBs. Take QBs. You will need two strong QBs to be a dominate team in your league. You have the RBs to do so. Just not the QBs.
Hope this helps.
wannabee
Footballguy
I would like to discuss the concept of value. Almost every one of my posts has that word in it. There are many ways "value" is used. Around Footballguys.com, the word "value" refers to relative value. This basically means that player's value is weighed against the value of all players at all positions. This is simply the VBD (Value Based Drafting) that FBG speaks often about and developed. I will use the word "value" as meaning that player's worth as opposed to other players or picks. This "value" has nothing to do with talent or fantasy production, just the accepted value placed on the player.
I know each player's value is a little different depending on the league, and the league scoring rules, league size and starting lineup regulations. For instance, in PPR leagues, some WRs are worth more than others. In non-PPR leagues, these two WRs could flip flop in value. The same is true for RBs, and how the league scores yardage. Jerome Bettis and Stephen Davis were awesome values in leagues that gave little scoring for yards. Also, a league's starting lineup rules are important. In a league that you only have to start one RB, or get to start 4 RBs, or 2 QBs, change player values.
Think of each player's value (generically) being on a scale from 1 to 100. I think this "value" is derived from the public perception. This public perception is similar to a market philosophy where the market determines the price. In fantasy football, player values are derived from a multitude of variables. One is ADP (or an average of where that player was drafted). But, ADP alone is flawed because it does not take into account league size, scoring, or starting lineups. Another market variable is public perception. This can include a player coming off of injury, a player coming off of a huge (but abnormal) year, a player that is worth more in the NFL than fantasy football, and many more. There are other market variables that affect the "value" of the player.
This value fluctuates up and down and is very dynamic. There are several factors that help fluctaute the value including: injury (to said player or other players on team), coaching change, personnel change (trade, cut, or sign of teammates that affect value), etc.
This is all to set up how we, as fantasy footballers, can take advantage of this "value". Remember that this "value" is the player's perceived worth compared to other players of different positions on all teams. The fantasy owners that are the best at being able to see a situation where a player is undervalued as compared to his talent usually dominate. They are able to "buy low" and "sell high". A few situations that come to mind (for dynasty, but the theory works for redraft, too):
a. acquiring TO last season after suspension while his value was low. At his lowest, TO's value was approximately even with Wayne. Now, it is up there even with the almost any and every WR ... and above many RBs. This same principle is true for those acquiring McNabb cheap when he was injured.
b. trading away Kevin Jones this time last year when his value was greater than his talent and upside. This is a very important strategy. Some players are valued at times above the level that they could ever produce. Willis last year at this time applies as well. I foresee Caddy as the RB that fits the bill for this year. We will know this time next year. Brown could apply also. But, Caddy is valued by many as the 5th best RB in fantasy. I cannot buy it.
c. holding, or acquiring, stable and non-sexy players like Dunn, Tiki, and Mason at low prices compared to their fantasy production. This sounds simple, but you should see the drafts where Dunn goes 2-3 rounds behind Julius Jones or Jamal Lewis or Kevin Jones. Who is the better "value"?
Conclusion:
The "art" and "skill" that differentiates the very good fantasy owners from the average owner is the ability to identify players and situations where the value is either too high or too low compared to that player's fantasy production, taking into account the upside (or ceiling) of the fantasy production. I would urge you to keep track of the ADP, other trades in your league, and on this board.
Many people use the ADP as a basis to judge what others think of each player. Think of how flawed that is and how you (we) can take advantage. Usually, ADPs are for a long period of time and do not take into account current events ... which throws off the ADP (player's value). I would look to see where the "sexy" and "groupthink" players are listed. I bet they are higher than they should be. Matt Jones is about as sexy (in a fantasy football way) a player as there is. His ADP is way too high for the expected level of production, imo. Andre Johnson is the same way. For a good example, think of how many times in redraft leagues over the past couple of years that Ashley Lelie was drafted ahead of Rod Smith. How crazy does that look now? The key is to identify the Smith's and Lelie's of the league. This is where knowing a player's value and comparing it to the talent (and fantasy production) comes into play in full force.
Hope this helps.
I know each player's value is a little different depending on the league, and the league scoring rules, league size and starting lineup regulations. For instance, in PPR leagues, some WRs are worth more than others. In non-PPR leagues, these two WRs could flip flop in value. The same is true for RBs, and how the league scores yardage. Jerome Bettis and Stephen Davis were awesome values in leagues that gave little scoring for yards. Also, a league's starting lineup rules are important. In a league that you only have to start one RB, or get to start 4 RBs, or 2 QBs, change player values.
Think of each player's value (generically) being on a scale from 1 to 100. I think this "value" is derived from the public perception. This public perception is similar to a market philosophy where the market determines the price. In fantasy football, player values are derived from a multitude of variables. One is ADP (or an average of where that player was drafted). But, ADP alone is flawed because it does not take into account league size, scoring, or starting lineups. Another market variable is public perception. This can include a player coming off of injury, a player coming off of a huge (but abnormal) year, a player that is worth more in the NFL than fantasy football, and many more. There are other market variables that affect the "value" of the player.
This value fluctuates up and down and is very dynamic. There are several factors that help fluctaute the value including: injury (to said player or other players on team), coaching change, personnel change (trade, cut, or sign of teammates that affect value), etc.
This is all to set up how we, as fantasy footballers, can take advantage of this "value". Remember that this "value" is the player's perceived worth compared to other players of different positions on all teams. The fantasy owners that are the best at being able to see a situation where a player is undervalued as compared to his talent usually dominate. They are able to "buy low" and "sell high". A few situations that come to mind (for dynasty, but the theory works for redraft, too):
a. acquiring TO last season after suspension while his value was low. At his lowest, TO's value was approximately even with Wayne. Now, it is up there even with the almost any and every WR ... and above many RBs. This same principle is true for those acquiring McNabb cheap when he was injured.
b. trading away Kevin Jones this time last year when his value was greater than his talent and upside. This is a very important strategy. Some players are valued at times above the level that they could ever produce. Willis last year at this time applies as well. I foresee Caddy as the RB that fits the bill for this year. We will know this time next year. Brown could apply also. But, Caddy is valued by many as the 5th best RB in fantasy. I cannot buy it.
c. holding, or acquiring, stable and non-sexy players like Dunn, Tiki, and Mason at low prices compared to their fantasy production. This sounds simple, but you should see the drafts where Dunn goes 2-3 rounds behind Julius Jones or Jamal Lewis or Kevin Jones. Who is the better "value"?
Conclusion:
The "art" and "skill" that differentiates the very good fantasy owners from the average owner is the ability to identify players and situations where the value is either too high or too low compared to that player's fantasy production, taking into account the upside (or ceiling) of the fantasy production. I would urge you to keep track of the ADP, other trades in your league, and on this board.
Many people use the ADP as a basis to judge what others think of each player. Think of how flawed that is and how you (we) can take advantage. Usually, ADPs are for a long period of time and do not take into account current events ... which throws off the ADP (player's value). I would look to see where the "sexy" and "groupthink" players are listed. I bet they are higher than they should be. Matt Jones is about as sexy (in a fantasy football way) a player as there is. His ADP is way too high for the expected level of production, imo. Andre Johnson is the same way. For a good example, think of how many times in redraft leagues over the past couple of years that Ashley Lelie was drafted ahead of Rod Smith. How crazy does that look now? The key is to identify the Smith's and Lelie's of the league. This is where knowing a player's value and comparing it to the talent (and fantasy production) comes into play in full force.
Hope this helps.
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Hawkeyeskin
Footballguy
Excellent information in here wannabee! Keep it up!! 
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
OK, I'm targeting Portis in the 1st Round , currently with my #4 Pick (I'm assumming that LT and Alexander (along with LJ-a Keeper this year) will be off the Board. The guy ahead of me @ #3, I'm not sure what he's going to do, maybe one of either Tiki, Portis, P. Manning, those three are pretty safe bets I will assume . If he takes Portis at #3, I'm proposing the following trade to the guys sitting at #10, #11 and #12 in the 1st Round:They get from me: my Pick #4 (1st Round), Pick #21 (2nd Round), and Pick #52 (5th round)
**I get from Them: Their 1st and 2nd Round Picks (assuming its the #10 and #15, or #11 and #14 , or #12, and #13 because I don't foresee anyone else dropping down in the first and second rounds), and their Pick #37, #38 or #39 (4th Round, depending on where you select in the 1st).
Essentially, the deal is, we swap 1st and 2nd Round picks, I get an extra 4th rounder, they get an extra 5th rounder. That will give me 5 picks in the first 45 selections. It somewhat of a steep price just to move up to #4, but these guys also are only allowed 1 Keeper, not 2 like me (they are new guy joining our league this year, so they are allowed one keeper from the remaining pool of eligible Keepers, once everyone from last year selects theirs.) Not sure if they will go for it, but I'm going to try it.
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wannabee
Footballguy
That is a very fair trade for them. This is a cheap price to move up to 1.04 to get a guy like Tiki or Caddy (whom some love), SJackson (whom some love), Manning, or even Bush. I am also a proponent of a "contingent deal". Basically a trade as long as a certain guy is or is not there when the pick comes up. You basically tell them that if one of Portis, LT or SA is available, you will take them ... if not, the trade is on.
Good luck.
Well done. I think the concept of market values for players is valid. In a way this is the only thing that matters: what the market or other owners will pay for players. And I've often thought about it like stocks. This especially rings true in dynasty leagues. For valuing stocks, one method is the discounted cash flow analysis. Basically that the value of a stock is worth the present value of the future cash flows discounted at some rate to account for risk. The higher the risk, the higher the discount rate and lower the value. This can actually be done in some fashion when comparing players. To at least think of their value tied to the future of all fantasy points discounted to account for the risks (i.e., poor offenses, injuries, age, etc.). We all do this instinctively anyway. For example, when looking at Corey Dillon or Laurence Maroney, it could be argued that the value of Maroney is higher than Dillon's in a dynasty league even though he's not currenty the starter. I think you could actually project a player's stats for the next 5 years and use a simple discount rate (10% for low risk, 20% for medium, and 30% for high risk players). This could give you a real sense statistically of who has more value depending on the stage of a players career. Good insight Wannabee.
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BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
This is the best advice I've seen in this forum in a LOOOOOOONNNNNNGGGGG time. Good stuff keep it up!
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
OK, I'm mulling over another trade. I'm still targeting Portis with my #4 pick in the first round, however, this time if I don't get him, I'm offering to switch that pick with the #8 pick in the first round. this guy already has LJ in the 5th (the #58th pick). In addition, I want his fourth for my 5th, and we would switch 6th Rounders as well.So it would go:
My picks after the trade: 1st Round: #8 (from him), 2nd Round: #21 (my own), 3rd Round: #28 (Fitz-my keeper), 4th Round: #41 (from him), 4th Round: #45 (Dunn-my keeper), 5th Round: no pick, 6th Round: #65 (from him).
His picks after the trade: 1st Round: #4 (from me), 2nd Round: #17 (his own), 3rd Round: #32 (his own), 4th Round: no pick, 5th Round: #52 (from me), 5th Round: #56 (LJ-his keeper), 6th Round: #69 (from me).
This would be fairly risky for me, but I really like the idea of getting essentially 5 picks in the first 45 selections. I already have great value with my 3rd and 4th Rounders, and he has LJ in the 5th, potentially the #1 player this year. This gives him back his 5th rounder, while I give up a 5th to move up in the 2nd and 6th Rounds. He is the only one I would offer this to for several reasons: 1) he has LJ and the potential for him to get his 5th rounder back would be tempting for him, 2)he moves up to get P. Manning or another solid #1 RB in the first, 3)he is in another division, and I only play him once this year.
I just think there will be more value for me if I move down from #4 for a shot at a #1 REC or perhaps two to go along with Fitz. Sitting at #4, my options are Portis and not much else, so why not try for better value later one in the first third of the Draft?
Think I'm giving up too much here? thoughts?
wannabee
Footballguy
First of all, I would do this ONLY if I was able to switch 2nd rounders as well. This is where you gain the value in trading down. You are better off staying put than doing this deal without swapping 2nd rounders.I like the trade for you if you get 2nd because the dropoff is pretty steep. At 1.08, you never know who will drop to you.
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
yea, good point. thanks. I'll mull that over...appreciate your insight.
Hawkeyeskin
Footballguy
I gotta tell ya wannabee, this is the first thread I check out of all the forums. Keep it going bud!! BTW, what are Kevin Kaspers chances of making an impact this year? Leave a link, I'll help answer yours.
wannabee
Footballguy
About the same as any Hawkeye outside of Dallas Clark and maybe Ladell Betts. Kevin Kasper<Tim Dwight .... 'nuf saidI gotta tell ya wannabee, this is the first thread I check out of all the forums. Keep it going bud!! BTW, what are Kevin Kaspers chances of making an impact this year? Leave a link, I'll help answer yours.
wannabee
Footballguy
I was thinking the other day about rookie WRs, and their value, as opposed to the rookie RBs. I hypothisized (in an earlier post) that rookie RBs' value peaks (for 95% of the RBs) in offseason before second year. My thinking was that most rookie RBs do not see the full load of carries and show "glimpses of greatness" in a limited sample size. We all too often try to extrapolate these good results in limited duty to what the numbers would be in a full 16 games. Is this not our human nature? In my opinion, this is what led to Kevin Jones being drafted high in 2005, and thus disappointing his owners.
What does this have to do with rookie WRs? As we discuss these rookie WRs, please keep in mind that I am primarily talking about value, and not talent. This "value" is also discussed in an earlier thread. Think about it as what it might take to acquire or trade away a certain player.
When I review the past NFL drafts, I noticed that many times the top one or two WRs drafted are not as good of NFL (fantasy) WRs as the guys drafted a little later, like in late 1st, early 2nd. That is weird. I know Keyshawn (1.01) and Terry Glenn (1.07) have been good pros, but several of the WRs drafted after these two in 1996 have done as well or better. Look at this list:
Kennison (1.18)
Harrison (1.19)
Moulds (1.24)
Toomer 34 overall
Terrell Owens 89 overall
Even Horn at 135 overall was a steal.
Many of these WRs took a few years to really get going.
Here is the link to all WRs drafted since 1982:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/positions/WR
But, how does that apply to value? It seems to me that few rookie WRs get much action in rookie year. WR is a difficult position to transition from college to pro. There are a lot of reads, route running, getting off the jam at the line, etc. A ton of skills to hone. So, most rookie WRs get very little time to showcase their skillset. We know very little about them after their rookie year. Many dynasty owners that draft these rookies in intial drafts are severely disappointed after that rookie year. But, most owners see the lack of game action as lack of production. But, out of the rookie WRs from 2005:
round pick player school
1 3 Braylon Edwards WR Michigan
1 7 Troy Williamson WR South Carolina
1 10 Mike Williams WR Southern California
1 21 Matt Jones WR Arkansas
1 22 Mark Clayton WR Oklahoma
1 27 Roddy White WR Ala.-Birmingham
2 35 Reggie Brown WR Georgia
2 39 Mark Bradley WR Oklahoma
2 55 Roscoe Parrish WR Miami
2 58 Terrence Murphy WR Texas A&M
2 61 Vincent Jackson WR Northern Colorado
3 68 Courtney Roby WR Indiana
3 83 Chris Henry WR West Virginia
3 96 Brandon Jones WR Oklahoma
4 114 Jerome Mathis WR Hampton
4 116 Craphonso Thorpe WR Florida State
4 118 Chase Lyman WR California
4 131 Fred Gibson WR Georgia
4 136 Roydell Williams WR Tulane
5 140 Airese Currie WR Clemson
5 155 Larry Brackins WR Pearl River JC
5 174 Rasheed Marshall WR West Virginia
6 185 Chad Owens WR Hawaii
6 190 Tab Perry WR UCLA
6 192 Dante' Ridgeway WR Ball State
6 195 Craig Bragg WR UCLA
7 223 Marcus Maxwell WR Oregon
7 225 Paris Warren WR Utah
7 226 LeRon McCoy WR Indiana, Pa.
7 240 Harry Williams WR Tuskegee
What do we really know about any of them? At best, they are all question marks (especially if you ask their owners). Matt Jones and Mark Clayton are the two that are being highly touted right now. Why? Neither has showed more than isolated flashes of potential. This seems eerily similar to the rookie RBs. We, with our human nature, extrapolate those flashes out and draft these second year WRs way too high. Why, in an initial dynasty draft, would Mark Clayton be drafted before Derrick Mason? Mason is only 31 years old and has played at a very high level for several years. Yes, I do realize that both of these WRs (Jones and Clayton) could be special but we really do not know as of yet.
Now, let's take the other side of things. What do we really know about the talent of WRs like Troy Williamson or Roddy White. I know these two are in situations where their respective offenses will hold them back for a bit, but talent will win out ..... if there is talent. Every year, there are guys that fit both of these categories. All are unknown, but some are drafted much higher than the others.
What to look for:
a. Talent and improvement through the rookie year. We all have a learning curve when we try new things. The rookie WRs many times need several games to get any decent playing time at all. Most teams would rather start the veteran WR that is less talented to give the team stability and the time to let the rookie WR develop. Reggie Brown fits this in my mind. He seemed to come on as the season wore on. This is despite the fact that he had the venrable Mike McMahon and Detmer throwing to him during the stretch he caught fire.
b. Situation. Situations for WRs change in the NFL faster than we think they will or can. It only took one year for Minnesota to go from Culpepper and Moss to Brad Johnson and Williamson.
c. Opportunity. A WR like Greg Jennings from the 2006 class in Green Bay has about as much opportunity as possible. He is vying for the WR2 spot. He is battling such "studs" as Robert Ferguson and Rod Gardner. With this opportunity, we will find out sooner about his talent and future than with a Brandon Marshall who was drafted in Denver.
Conclusion:
Many fantasy owners give up on their rookie WRs after one year because they confuse lack of game action (while they are learning the system and developing) with lack of production. I see these WRs as great targets for trade. If you could trade an established WR, with limited upside like a McCareins or Toomer, for Rod White ... you should. But the other owner might consider trading a Reggie Brown for a Jurevicius. In dynasty (looking at the long run), which is the one you want? How about a Troy Williamson for Terry Glenn?
I think these WRs entering their second year are at a point where their value may never be lower ... the opposite of the rookie RBs. If you look forward, the top two WRs drafted in 2006 (Holmes and Chad Jackson) were drafted into good offenses where they will not see as much action as they would on different teams. Come mid season, or next year this time, look to target those two WRs.
Hope this helps.
What does this have to do with rookie WRs? As we discuss these rookie WRs, please keep in mind that I am primarily talking about value, and not talent. This "value" is also discussed in an earlier thread. Think about it as what it might take to acquire or trade away a certain player.
When I review the past NFL drafts, I noticed that many times the top one or two WRs drafted are not as good of NFL (fantasy) WRs as the guys drafted a little later, like in late 1st, early 2nd. That is weird. I know Keyshawn (1.01) and Terry Glenn (1.07) have been good pros, but several of the WRs drafted after these two in 1996 have done as well or better. Look at this list:
Kennison (1.18)
Harrison (1.19)
Moulds (1.24)
Toomer 34 overall
Terrell Owens 89 overall
Even Horn at 135 overall was a steal.
Many of these WRs took a few years to really get going.
Here is the link to all WRs drafted since 1982:
http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/positions/WR
But, how does that apply to value? It seems to me that few rookie WRs get much action in rookie year. WR is a difficult position to transition from college to pro. There are a lot of reads, route running, getting off the jam at the line, etc. A ton of skills to hone. So, most rookie WRs get very little time to showcase their skillset. We know very little about them after their rookie year. Many dynasty owners that draft these rookies in intial drafts are severely disappointed after that rookie year. But, most owners see the lack of game action as lack of production. But, out of the rookie WRs from 2005:
round pick player school
1 3 Braylon Edwards WR Michigan
1 7 Troy Williamson WR South Carolina
1 10 Mike Williams WR Southern California
1 21 Matt Jones WR Arkansas
1 22 Mark Clayton WR Oklahoma
1 27 Roddy White WR Ala.-Birmingham
2 35 Reggie Brown WR Georgia
2 39 Mark Bradley WR Oklahoma
2 55 Roscoe Parrish WR Miami
2 58 Terrence Murphy WR Texas A&M
2 61 Vincent Jackson WR Northern Colorado
3 68 Courtney Roby WR Indiana
3 83 Chris Henry WR West Virginia
3 96 Brandon Jones WR Oklahoma
4 114 Jerome Mathis WR Hampton
4 116 Craphonso Thorpe WR Florida State
4 118 Chase Lyman WR California
4 131 Fred Gibson WR Georgia
4 136 Roydell Williams WR Tulane
5 140 Airese Currie WR Clemson
5 155 Larry Brackins WR Pearl River JC
5 174 Rasheed Marshall WR West Virginia
6 185 Chad Owens WR Hawaii
6 190 Tab Perry WR UCLA
6 192 Dante' Ridgeway WR Ball State
6 195 Craig Bragg WR UCLA
7 223 Marcus Maxwell WR Oregon
7 225 Paris Warren WR Utah
7 226 LeRon McCoy WR Indiana, Pa.
7 240 Harry Williams WR Tuskegee
What do we really know about any of them? At best, they are all question marks (especially if you ask their owners). Matt Jones and Mark Clayton are the two that are being highly touted right now. Why? Neither has showed more than isolated flashes of potential. This seems eerily similar to the rookie RBs. We, with our human nature, extrapolate those flashes out and draft these second year WRs way too high. Why, in an initial dynasty draft, would Mark Clayton be drafted before Derrick Mason? Mason is only 31 years old and has played at a very high level for several years. Yes, I do realize that both of these WRs (Jones and Clayton) could be special but we really do not know as of yet.
Now, let's take the other side of things. What do we really know about the talent of WRs like Troy Williamson or Roddy White. I know these two are in situations where their respective offenses will hold them back for a bit, but talent will win out ..... if there is talent. Every year, there are guys that fit both of these categories. All are unknown, but some are drafted much higher than the others.
What to look for:
a. Talent and improvement through the rookie year. We all have a learning curve when we try new things. The rookie WRs many times need several games to get any decent playing time at all. Most teams would rather start the veteran WR that is less talented to give the team stability and the time to let the rookie WR develop. Reggie Brown fits this in my mind. He seemed to come on as the season wore on. This is despite the fact that he had the venrable Mike McMahon and Detmer throwing to him during the stretch he caught fire.
b. Situation. Situations for WRs change in the NFL faster than we think they will or can. It only took one year for Minnesota to go from Culpepper and Moss to Brad Johnson and Williamson.
c. Opportunity. A WR like Greg Jennings from the 2006 class in Green Bay has about as much opportunity as possible. He is vying for the WR2 spot. He is battling such "studs" as Robert Ferguson and Rod Gardner. With this opportunity, we will find out sooner about his talent and future than with a Brandon Marshall who was drafted in Denver.
Conclusion:
Many fantasy owners give up on their rookie WRs after one year because they confuse lack of game action (while they are learning the system and developing) with lack of production. I see these WRs as great targets for trade. If you could trade an established WR, with limited upside like a McCareins or Toomer, for Rod White ... you should. But the other owner might consider trading a Reggie Brown for a Jurevicius. In dynasty (looking at the long run), which is the one you want? How about a Troy Williamson for Terry Glenn?
I think these WRs entering their second year are at a point where their value may never be lower ... the opposite of the rookie RBs. If you look forward, the top two WRs drafted in 2006 (Holmes and Chad Jackson) were drafted into good offenses where they will not see as much action as they would on different teams. Come mid season, or next year this time, look to target those two WRs.
Hope this helps.
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Scarpaggio
Footballguy
Here is a short one for you.. Dynasty league. What are your thought on trading A. Rodgers and C. Houston for the 1.12 and 2.5 pick in this years rookie draft? I'm looking at it as future value and nothing that will help my team this year. Are the rookies at those picks comparable/better/or worse then the 2 guys I'd be giving up.
wannabee
Footballguy
I will asume that you have no needs and it is not IDP. Let's look at the rookie that should be available:You should feel fairly certain that these players will be gone:
Top 5 rookie RBs (Bush, Maroney, Williams, White, and Addai)
Vernon Davis
Matt Leinart
Vince Young
Chad Jackson
This means that at 1.12, you might have a choice of three of these players:
Jay Cutler
Jerious Norwood
Santonio Holmes
Marcedes Lewis
Maurice Drew
The two most likely of these to be gone would be Cutler and Norwood. I would think you would gladly take either of these over the players you now have. I would even go as far to say that I like Calhoun better than Houston. Some will also include Drew into being better than Houston.
For the 2.5 pick, there are only a few options better than the ones you have. I would say any of the above 14 players that are listed above would be a better option at this time than Rodgers. Assuming your league is 12 teams, that means 3 more players will go, in addition to those listed, before the pick at 2.5.
The attractive options in the 2nd round, assuming the above 14 players are gone are:
Clemens, QB NYJ
Marshall, WR DEN
Harrison, RB CLEVE
Sinorice Moss, WR NYG
Jennings WR, GB
I would think that if any of the 14 players listed for the first round slip to 2.5, you should take that player. If not, I would rather have any of these players above rather than Rodgers. This is my opinion and many may disagree. Some may add a TE like Scheffler or QB like Tavaris Jackson, but the ones listed are easy choices for me.
I think I would do that trade if it was me. I know many will look at Houston as the guy in NYJ, but I do not buy it. And, Rodgers is not showing much. In a time of year where we only hear positive things, we have heard a ton of negatives on Rodgers.
Hope this helps.
Last edited by a moderator:
wannabee
Footballguy
Are there any subjects anyone wants me to put time into researching, even though many are better than I am?
Some things I am bouncing around:
a. Assessing a players future production based on a strong finish from the previous year
b. Identifying the talent dropoff at certain positions and how to draft around these dropoffs
c. Using first downs and plays of 20+ yards as a possible telling point of future production
and a few others not yet solidified ....
Some things I am bouncing around:
a. Assessing a players future production based on a strong finish from the previous year
b. Identifying the talent dropoff at certain positions and how to draft around these dropoffs
c. Using first downs and plays of 20+ yards as a possible telling point of future production
and a few others not yet solidified ....
wannabee
Footballguy
In December, I wrote a thread about the rookie RBs from 2005. Here is the link:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...++benson++brown
This was just my views from watching the RBs play. This will be in two parts. I will copy the text here:
A Closer Look at the 2005 Rookie RB Class
I realize many will have a different take on some of the guys than I do. Any and all feedback is appreciated. This will, in no way, is exhaustive. Many on this board are much better dynasty experts than I am, but here it goes:
First, I would like to look at a few of the higher profile RBs in the 2005 draft class. I will focus on those drafted highly and not the free agent rookies and lower draft picks. Whenever I attempt to evaluate a young RB, the hardest part for me is trying to articulate an equivalent RB in terms of ability and value. I will try to include the ceiling and floor, including most likely comparison. In addition, since it is dynasty, I will weigh the talent portion heavily while barely touching on circumstance and opportunity. Some comparables might seem a stretch, but is my best estimate.
2005:
Ronnie Brown – Brown has played very well and handled the difficult situation of sharing the backfield with Ricky Williams. In addition, the Dolphins have an average, veteran QB who is not a threat to pass often. This increases the pressure on the running game. Houck had vastly improved the Miami offensive line and helped the Dolphins turn into a good running team. Now, let’s focus on Brown. In the 13 games, Brown has 187 carries for 841 yards for a very respectable ypc of 4.5 and 4 TDs. This 4.5 ypc is extremely strong considering that Brown only has 5 carries of 20 yards or more. He is also, strong in passing game. Brown has caught 28 passes for 208 yards, yielding an average of 7.4 yards per catch. Brown also has 1 receiving TD.
Comparables:
High Side – Edgerrin James. A strong runner who will put his head down and run over a linebacker, but likes getting outside and has good speed. Brown is 18 pounds heavier than James. Both are 6’ with James 214 lbs and Brown 232 lbs.
Low Side – Anthony Thomas (6’2, 225 lbs). Thomas is a decent between the tackles runner. Thomas offers little upside, but does not have enough wiggle to be elite, even with the ROY award (yuck!). Brown has better hands than Thomas so it allows him to stay on the field on 3rd downs and rack up yards and TDs.
Equivalent – Deuce McAllister (6’1, 232). Deuce is a solid RB between the tackles with decent speed. He sometimes battles injury issues, but at his best and in good physical shape, most NFL and fantasy GMs would take Deuce in a heartbeat.
He has the talent to be a top 10 fantasy RB for many years. He has the size and speed combination to be a star. He is a definite fantasy buy. Many might undervalue him due to the presence of Ricky and the fact that he shared the load in college, but Brown could be a star. Brown’s value in dynasty should be that of a younger Corey Dillon. This is the runner Brown reminds me of the most. Brown could be a top 10 RB for 5+ years, just like Dillon. His value could be the same as Dillon’s was during the height his career. Dillon has been productive and steady runner. Brown was Saban’s choice, after being in the SEC, and is my choice, too.
Caddy Williams - Caddy has played very well carrying a large load, when healthy. With the addition of Caddy, the Bucs have turned into a team that has relied heavy on the run, and play strong defense. As the season as progressed, the Bucs have thrown fewer times per game and relied on the run more. Caddy has played 11 games, after missing 2 due to injury. He is averaging 20 carries per game. This average has come down some from the insane number of rushes earlier in the year. He will not be able to hold up for long averaging 300+ carries per year. With 223 carries, Williams has 924 yards for a 4.1 ypc. and 5 TDs. Williams is explosive with 7 carries of 20+ yards. Williams is a good receiver but does not have many passes thrown to him. He has caught 16 passes for 67 yards. Williams is solidly built at 5’11, 217 lbs.
Comparables:
High Side – Clinton Portis (5’11, 212 lbs). Portis, like Williams, has the speed to take almost any carry to the house. In addition, their teams give them 20+ carries per game. Simply put: both are workhorse backs that have game-breaking ability.
Low Side – Lee Suggs (6’, 206). Suggs has very good talent but is the ultimate tease due to injuries. Granted, Suggs was not draft with the same expectations, but much has been expected of Suggs with mixed results. They each have oodles of talent, but Suggs seems to be a tease (just like D. Foster) who everyone says “what if”?
Equivalent – Ahman Green (6’, 218 lbs). Green is a steady workhorse back who is good out of the backfield. He has been a solid, steady performer for many years. Any young back would love to have Green’s credentials.
Caddy Williams should be a solid top 15 RB in Tampa for years to come. Presently, Tampa is using Alstot to vulture the short yardage and goal line carries, and Pittman is used in obvious passing downs. Another comparison for Williams might be between Ricky Watters on the high side (value/production-wise) and a Fred Taylor type of back. I see Caddy’s value as being high. His owners see the production and upcoming ROY. They see a star on the rise and are hesitant to trade the next big star. I see his ceiling as lower than most. He can be a solid RB8-15 for many years, barring injury. Just as with Brown, many are waiting to see if Williams can carry the load given the reduced touches in college. I see Caddy as a reserved or measured buy. His size is the same as many NFL stars. He will need to prove he is durable. Plus, the Bucs, and Gruden in particular, will need to show they how to utilize (and not overwork) Williams to is strengths. Williams does have the ability to be consistent runner for many years, just like Watters. To get Watters’ level, Williams will need to prove he can be versatile out of the backfield and prove more durable than Fred Taylor. Williams seems to get stronger as the game goes on with more and more carries. This is a two-edged sword. This is great news for fantasy owners. We all want our stud RB to get tons of carries, especially ones that seem to get stronger with each one. But, this workload might also expose durability issues for Williams. He did have an injury history at Auburn. Something to consider.
Cedric Benson - Benson is a pounding back that is the type of runner who gets stronger as the game goes on. He went to the ideal team, the Bears. But, no one counted on Thomas Jones playing so well this year and staying injury free. Regardless, Benson has a bright future in Chicago. Benson has been slowed this year for a couple of reasons. First of all, he held out and missed most of training camp and preseason. This has stunted the growth of all who have gotten themselves in that situation. Secondly, a midseason knee injury stalled any momentum gained due to Jones’ rib injury. Benson runs “down hill” and with authority. He is a big guy at 5’10 and 215 lbs. He runs larger than the listed size, too.
Comparables:
High Side – Rudi Johnson. Rudi is a grind it out back that gets stronger as the game goes along. This situation might be like Rudi’s where it was not until his third year in the NFL, and a Dillon injury, when Rudi emerged. This prompted a Dillon trade. Strong play by Benson might force a Jones trade.
Low Side – Ron Dayne – Size and high draft pick. Dayne is an enigma who shows flashes, but in the end, it is obvious to all he cannot be relied upon to be the primary ball carrier. Dayne has the size, but thinks of himself as a finesse runner.
Equivalent – Mike Anderson in his prime. Anderson has been a stud, when healthy, on a team that likes to run the ball ... a lot. Benson has to prove that he is more durable than Mike the Marine. But, he is a workhorse type of back.
Benson proved to be durable and a workhorse in college. He started 43 games in college and ran for 5,500+ yards and 64 TDs. He very well could be on par with fellow Longhorn, Ricky Williams, even though they have different strengths. He could be a solid RB5-10 for ten years. He will probably be a guy who relies heavily on TDs to gain fantasy points. He will gain yards a plenty, but is strong at the goal line and will be used to punch in red zone TDs. Due to Benson’s injury and holdout, his value is low. I put Benson as a buy primarily because he will not be as expensive as one might think. Many Benson owners might be looking at Thomas Jones as a roadblock. But, in dynasty, talent rises to the top. In 2005, Benson has only 58 carries for 237 yards yielding a 4.1 ypc. He has flashed some speed with 3 carries on 20+ yards and long carry of 36 yards. My recommendation would be to try to buy Benson today. He is slowed coming back from injury. His knee is still “stiff”. But, if the Bears go deep in the playoffs, Benson might get a chance to show all watching what he is made of – including the Bears and the Benson owners. If you believe in Benson, now is the time to buy.
Once again, I welcome all feedback and realize many here know much more than I do about grading and evaluating young NFL players. A quick thanks out to Bloom who has helped me through this process.
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...++benson++brown
This was just my views from watching the RBs play. This will be in two parts. I will copy the text here:
A Closer Look at the 2005 Rookie RB Class
I realize many will have a different take on some of the guys than I do. Any and all feedback is appreciated. This will, in no way, is exhaustive. Many on this board are much better dynasty experts than I am, but here it goes:
First, I would like to look at a few of the higher profile RBs in the 2005 draft class. I will focus on those drafted highly and not the free agent rookies and lower draft picks. Whenever I attempt to evaluate a young RB, the hardest part for me is trying to articulate an equivalent RB in terms of ability and value. I will try to include the ceiling and floor, including most likely comparison. In addition, since it is dynasty, I will weigh the talent portion heavily while barely touching on circumstance and opportunity. Some comparables might seem a stretch, but is my best estimate.
2005:
Ronnie Brown – Brown has played very well and handled the difficult situation of sharing the backfield with Ricky Williams. In addition, the Dolphins have an average, veteran QB who is not a threat to pass often. This increases the pressure on the running game. Houck had vastly improved the Miami offensive line and helped the Dolphins turn into a good running team. Now, let’s focus on Brown. In the 13 games, Brown has 187 carries for 841 yards for a very respectable ypc of 4.5 and 4 TDs. This 4.5 ypc is extremely strong considering that Brown only has 5 carries of 20 yards or more. He is also, strong in passing game. Brown has caught 28 passes for 208 yards, yielding an average of 7.4 yards per catch. Brown also has 1 receiving TD.
Comparables:
High Side – Edgerrin James. A strong runner who will put his head down and run over a linebacker, but likes getting outside and has good speed. Brown is 18 pounds heavier than James. Both are 6’ with James 214 lbs and Brown 232 lbs.
Low Side – Anthony Thomas (6’2, 225 lbs). Thomas is a decent between the tackles runner. Thomas offers little upside, but does not have enough wiggle to be elite, even with the ROY award (yuck!). Brown has better hands than Thomas so it allows him to stay on the field on 3rd downs and rack up yards and TDs.
Equivalent – Deuce McAllister (6’1, 232). Deuce is a solid RB between the tackles with decent speed. He sometimes battles injury issues, but at his best and in good physical shape, most NFL and fantasy GMs would take Deuce in a heartbeat.
He has the talent to be a top 10 fantasy RB for many years. He has the size and speed combination to be a star. He is a definite fantasy buy. Many might undervalue him due to the presence of Ricky and the fact that he shared the load in college, but Brown could be a star. Brown’s value in dynasty should be that of a younger Corey Dillon. This is the runner Brown reminds me of the most. Brown could be a top 10 RB for 5+ years, just like Dillon. His value could be the same as Dillon’s was during the height his career. Dillon has been productive and steady runner. Brown was Saban’s choice, after being in the SEC, and is my choice, too.
Caddy Williams - Caddy has played very well carrying a large load, when healthy. With the addition of Caddy, the Bucs have turned into a team that has relied heavy on the run, and play strong defense. As the season as progressed, the Bucs have thrown fewer times per game and relied on the run more. Caddy has played 11 games, after missing 2 due to injury. He is averaging 20 carries per game. This average has come down some from the insane number of rushes earlier in the year. He will not be able to hold up for long averaging 300+ carries per year. With 223 carries, Williams has 924 yards for a 4.1 ypc. and 5 TDs. Williams is explosive with 7 carries of 20+ yards. Williams is a good receiver but does not have many passes thrown to him. He has caught 16 passes for 67 yards. Williams is solidly built at 5’11, 217 lbs.
Comparables:
High Side – Clinton Portis (5’11, 212 lbs). Portis, like Williams, has the speed to take almost any carry to the house. In addition, their teams give them 20+ carries per game. Simply put: both are workhorse backs that have game-breaking ability.
Low Side – Lee Suggs (6’, 206). Suggs has very good talent but is the ultimate tease due to injuries. Granted, Suggs was not draft with the same expectations, but much has been expected of Suggs with mixed results. They each have oodles of talent, but Suggs seems to be a tease (just like D. Foster) who everyone says “what if”?
Equivalent – Ahman Green (6’, 218 lbs). Green is a steady workhorse back who is good out of the backfield. He has been a solid, steady performer for many years. Any young back would love to have Green’s credentials.
Caddy Williams should be a solid top 15 RB in Tampa for years to come. Presently, Tampa is using Alstot to vulture the short yardage and goal line carries, and Pittman is used in obvious passing downs. Another comparison for Williams might be between Ricky Watters on the high side (value/production-wise) and a Fred Taylor type of back. I see Caddy’s value as being high. His owners see the production and upcoming ROY. They see a star on the rise and are hesitant to trade the next big star. I see his ceiling as lower than most. He can be a solid RB8-15 for many years, barring injury. Just as with Brown, many are waiting to see if Williams can carry the load given the reduced touches in college. I see Caddy as a reserved or measured buy. His size is the same as many NFL stars. He will need to prove he is durable. Plus, the Bucs, and Gruden in particular, will need to show they how to utilize (and not overwork) Williams to is strengths. Williams does have the ability to be consistent runner for many years, just like Watters. To get Watters’ level, Williams will need to prove he can be versatile out of the backfield and prove more durable than Fred Taylor. Williams seems to get stronger as the game goes on with more and more carries. This is a two-edged sword. This is great news for fantasy owners. We all want our stud RB to get tons of carries, especially ones that seem to get stronger with each one. But, this workload might also expose durability issues for Williams. He did have an injury history at Auburn. Something to consider.
Cedric Benson - Benson is a pounding back that is the type of runner who gets stronger as the game goes on. He went to the ideal team, the Bears. But, no one counted on Thomas Jones playing so well this year and staying injury free. Regardless, Benson has a bright future in Chicago. Benson has been slowed this year for a couple of reasons. First of all, he held out and missed most of training camp and preseason. This has stunted the growth of all who have gotten themselves in that situation. Secondly, a midseason knee injury stalled any momentum gained due to Jones’ rib injury. Benson runs “down hill” and with authority. He is a big guy at 5’10 and 215 lbs. He runs larger than the listed size, too.
Comparables:
High Side – Rudi Johnson. Rudi is a grind it out back that gets stronger as the game goes along. This situation might be like Rudi’s where it was not until his third year in the NFL, and a Dillon injury, when Rudi emerged. This prompted a Dillon trade. Strong play by Benson might force a Jones trade.
Low Side – Ron Dayne – Size and high draft pick. Dayne is an enigma who shows flashes, but in the end, it is obvious to all he cannot be relied upon to be the primary ball carrier. Dayne has the size, but thinks of himself as a finesse runner.
Equivalent – Mike Anderson in his prime. Anderson has been a stud, when healthy, on a team that likes to run the ball ... a lot. Benson has to prove that he is more durable than Mike the Marine. But, he is a workhorse type of back.
Benson proved to be durable and a workhorse in college. He started 43 games in college and ran for 5,500+ yards and 64 TDs. He very well could be on par with fellow Longhorn, Ricky Williams, even though they have different strengths. He could be a solid RB5-10 for ten years. He will probably be a guy who relies heavily on TDs to gain fantasy points. He will gain yards a plenty, but is strong at the goal line and will be used to punch in red zone TDs. Due to Benson’s injury and holdout, his value is low. I put Benson as a buy primarily because he will not be as expensive as one might think. Many Benson owners might be looking at Thomas Jones as a roadblock. But, in dynasty, talent rises to the top. In 2005, Benson has only 58 carries for 237 yards yielding a 4.1 ypc. He has flashed some speed with 3 carries on 20+ yards and long carry of 36 yards. My recommendation would be to try to buy Benson today. He is slowed coming back from injury. His knee is still “stiff”. But, if the Bears go deep in the playoffs, Benson might get a chance to show all watching what he is made of – including the Bears and the Benson owners. If you believe in Benson, now is the time to buy.
Once again, I welcome all feedback and realize many here know much more than I do about grading and evaluating young NFL players. A quick thanks out to Bloom who has helped me through this process.
Last edited by a moderator:
wannabee
Footballguy
A Closer Look at the 2005 Rookie RB Class Part Two
I realize many will have a different take on some of the guys than I do. I will only be able to a few at a time due to space and time constraints. Once again, if well received, I will do another round. Any and all feedback is appreciated. This will, in no way, is exhaustive. Many on this board are much better dynasty experts than I am, but here it goes:
First, I will like to look at a few of the higher profile RBs in the 2005 draft class. I will focus on those drafted highly and not the free agent rookies and lower draft picks. Whenever I attempt to evaluate a young RB, the hardest part for me is trying to articulate an equivalent RB in terms of ability and value. I will try to include the ceiling and floor, including most likely comparison. In addition, since it is dynasty, I will weigh the talent portion heavily while barely touching on circumstance and opportunity. Some comparables might seem a stretch, but is my best estimate.
2005:
Ryan Moats - has looked explosive at times. He is shifty and has decent speed, but good quickness. He is a shifty, elusive runner. Moats seems to be a back who is bottled up for plays at a time. Then, when you are least expecting, he breaks off a decent run. Moats is a guy most think is slight of build, but is stocky. He is 5’8” and 210 lbs. He started one game in 2005 and played seven games total. He was inactive and nicked up early in the season. The Eagle coaching staff seemed to do a good job of bringing Moats along slowly. Moats ends the season strong due to the Westbrook injury. He had 55 carries for 278 yards, yielding a whopping 5.1 ypc. He broke off a long run of 59 yards, and three of 20+ yards. Moats will need to work hard to stay away from being thought of as primarily a 3rd down, change-of-pace back. I do not want to dash hopes, but I do not see Moats as a viable fantasy option for the future.
Comparables:
High Side – Tiki Barber (5’10”, 200 lbs). Only recently, the Giants have figured out how to use Barber the best and most productive ways. The Eagles are still trying to identify the best ways to utilize Moats. But, Moats, somewhat lacking Barber’s tremendous receiving ability, could achieve Barber’s high yardage per touch and ability to change games.
Low Side – Kevin Faulk (5’8”, 202 lbs). Faulk is not thought of anything more than a 3rd down back. He has, and will, been a guy who is a decent complimentary player. Moats will need to establish that he has more to offer.
Equivalent – Tatum Bell (5’11, 213 lbs). Like Bell, I see Moats at peak efficiency with a maximum of 12-15 touches per game. But, in those touches, Moats has a chance to change games. Moats is quick, while Bell has blazing speed. I realize the differences in their capabilities, but look at it more from a standpoint of how they are used.
Moats definitely has a chance to be a difference maker in the NFL. He has the talent to be a top 20 fantasy RB for years. Like stated earlier, Moats will need to prove he deserves the 12-15 touches per game, and not a 3rd down only back who returns kicks. The difference for fantasy owners is the difference between a Kevin Faulk/Amos Zereous type guy and a Charlie Garner type of back. Garner had a six seasons where he averaged above 4.5 ypc. Granted, not all of these guys have the same style or assets. But, I think the comparisons are valid.
Marion Barber- Barber has played very well carrying the load, when asked. Barber is a grinder type of back who has deceptive speed and quickness. Most underestimate is speed/power combination. In addition, Barber has proved himself worthy in the passing game. He has been an asset with his pass catching abilities. Barber has played 13 games, starting 2 of the games. Barber does seem to be a back who could be a workhorse type with good speed and deceptive power and tackle breaking ability. Barber had 138 carries for 538 yards yielding a 3.9 ypc. and 5 TDs. Barber showed his explosiveness with 3 carries of 20+ yards and 28 of the 138 carries going for a first down. Barber is a good receiver and was used as such. He has caught 18 passes for 115 yards. Barber is sturdily built at 5’11, 218 lbs.
High Side – Emmitt Smith I know this sounds extreme, but Barber could have this type of ceiling. He, like Emmitt, punish defenders and seem to finish runs off by falling forward.
Low Side – Willie Green (6’, 214). We did (do) not get a feel for Green’s level of talent (or lack thereof) because he was always mired in a RBBC and could not differentiate himself from the competition. Hopefully, Barber will prove that the flashes of stardom seen in 2005 are reality, not a mirage.
Equivalent – Reuben Droughns (5’11”, 215 lbs). Droughns had 1600 total yards in 2005. He is a good receiver, to compliment his strong running between the tackles. He has proven that last year was not a fluke. Barber, like Droughns, could be a solid RB for several years. In addition, both runners will be able to handle 300+ carries and 30-50 catches a year. But, I would anticipate Barber getting more TDs. I chalk up Droughns’ lack of TDs to the Browns offense more than his talent and nose for the goal line.
Marion Barber definitely has the potential to be a solid Top 20 RB for years to come. Presently, Barber is stuck in a RBBC situation in Dallas with Julius Jones. Barber played well enough for Dallas to cut Anthony Thomas in midseason. I really like Barber for dynasty leagues. He has very good speed, some shiftiness, and good power. When he gets the opportunity, he will produce – just like he did this year. Interestingly, his measurables, TDs, and ypc are very close to that of Caddy Williams. And, both are waiting for sole control of the RB position. Barber could be a star. He runs with his pads low and rarely gets knocked back on contact. His speed lacks the “take it to the house” gear, but is fast enough to break off long runs on occasion. Also, Barber seems to get stronger with more carries. He is a strong runner between the tackles and runs hard. He is a buy with an eye to the future. Barber was in a RBBC in college and needs to prove that he can indeed handle the 300 catches most think he can. Only time will tell.
Ciatrick Fason - Fason is a big, pounding back - with very good speed - who was only used as a goal line and short yardage in 2005. He succeeded in this role in 2005. Of his 32 carries, four went for TDs and 12 for first downs. Since he was used mostly for short yardage, he had a low ypc of 1.9. I do not think this is indicative of his talent, just the carries he was given. Fason is a guy that has the size/speed/power measureables most NFL types drool over. Fason runs with authority and has the speed to take any run to the house. He is a big guy at 6’0 and 207 lbs. He runs larger than the listed size, too. Fason only had one year as a full time RB in college. He is still real raw as a football player. Fason, is a good runner and receiver, but poor blocker.
Comparables:
High Side –Chris Brown – (6’3”, 230 lbs) – Brown is taller and heavier than Fason. But the two have similar upright running styles. Brown is barely touching the hem of his potential.
Low Side – Ron Dayne –Dayne is an enigma who shows flashes, but in the end, it is obvious to all he cannot be relied upon to be the primary ball carrier. Dayne has the size, but thinks of himself as a finesse runner. I used this same example for Benson, too. Also, think James Jackson.
Equivalent – Jamal Robertson. Every preseason, we see Robertson show flashes of greatness. But, Robertson never seems to pull it all together. Maurice Hicks is another example.
Ciatrick Fason is a guy with tremendous upside. With all of the other RBs in Minnesota, and the prominent use of RBBC, Fason will be looking for opportunities to prove he can excel and handle the larger load. He flashed greatness at times at Florida, but seemed to be inconsistent. He possesses great physical tools, but is still raw as a football player. The change of coaching staffs might help Fason. Ideally, he would be used on first and second downs with Moore in on third down. This rotation would take advantage of Fason’s strengths. I still am not sold on Fason. I think he has a ton to prove in order to become the RB most hope he can become. I tend to stay away from guys who flash greatness, but cannot seem to sustain the level. He is the type of player everyone uses the words “potential” and “what if” continuously when referencing. The things Fason has going for him are his measurables: size, speed, and power. Working against Fason are: full scale RBBC, different coaching staff (unknown), poor blocker, and has not diffferentiated himself as of yet from less than great RBs. Maybe he will. But the NFL always has had guys who SHOULD be stars, but are not. He will have to prove he is another Chris Brown, not James Jackson. In the end, I see Fason as a tease for fantasy players.
I realize many will have a different take on some of the guys than I do. I will only be able to a few at a time due to space and time constraints. Once again, if well received, I will do another round. Any and all feedback is appreciated. This will, in no way, is exhaustive. Many on this board are much better dynasty experts than I am, but here it goes:
First, I will like to look at a few of the higher profile RBs in the 2005 draft class. I will focus on those drafted highly and not the free agent rookies and lower draft picks. Whenever I attempt to evaluate a young RB, the hardest part for me is trying to articulate an equivalent RB in terms of ability and value. I will try to include the ceiling and floor, including most likely comparison. In addition, since it is dynasty, I will weigh the talent portion heavily while barely touching on circumstance and opportunity. Some comparables might seem a stretch, but is my best estimate.
2005:
Ryan Moats - has looked explosive at times. He is shifty and has decent speed, but good quickness. He is a shifty, elusive runner. Moats seems to be a back who is bottled up for plays at a time. Then, when you are least expecting, he breaks off a decent run. Moats is a guy most think is slight of build, but is stocky. He is 5’8” and 210 lbs. He started one game in 2005 and played seven games total. He was inactive and nicked up early in the season. The Eagle coaching staff seemed to do a good job of bringing Moats along slowly. Moats ends the season strong due to the Westbrook injury. He had 55 carries for 278 yards, yielding a whopping 5.1 ypc. He broke off a long run of 59 yards, and three of 20+ yards. Moats will need to work hard to stay away from being thought of as primarily a 3rd down, change-of-pace back. I do not want to dash hopes, but I do not see Moats as a viable fantasy option for the future.
Comparables:
High Side – Tiki Barber (5’10”, 200 lbs). Only recently, the Giants have figured out how to use Barber the best and most productive ways. The Eagles are still trying to identify the best ways to utilize Moats. But, Moats, somewhat lacking Barber’s tremendous receiving ability, could achieve Barber’s high yardage per touch and ability to change games.
Low Side – Kevin Faulk (5’8”, 202 lbs). Faulk is not thought of anything more than a 3rd down back. He has, and will, been a guy who is a decent complimentary player. Moats will need to establish that he has more to offer.
Equivalent – Tatum Bell (5’11, 213 lbs). Like Bell, I see Moats at peak efficiency with a maximum of 12-15 touches per game. But, in those touches, Moats has a chance to change games. Moats is quick, while Bell has blazing speed. I realize the differences in their capabilities, but look at it more from a standpoint of how they are used.
Moats definitely has a chance to be a difference maker in the NFL. He has the talent to be a top 20 fantasy RB for years. Like stated earlier, Moats will need to prove he deserves the 12-15 touches per game, and not a 3rd down only back who returns kicks. The difference for fantasy owners is the difference between a Kevin Faulk/Amos Zereous type guy and a Charlie Garner type of back. Garner had a six seasons where he averaged above 4.5 ypc. Granted, not all of these guys have the same style or assets. But, I think the comparisons are valid.
Marion Barber- Barber has played very well carrying the load, when asked. Barber is a grinder type of back who has deceptive speed and quickness. Most underestimate is speed/power combination. In addition, Barber has proved himself worthy in the passing game. He has been an asset with his pass catching abilities. Barber has played 13 games, starting 2 of the games. Barber does seem to be a back who could be a workhorse type with good speed and deceptive power and tackle breaking ability. Barber had 138 carries for 538 yards yielding a 3.9 ypc. and 5 TDs. Barber showed his explosiveness with 3 carries of 20+ yards and 28 of the 138 carries going for a first down. Barber is a good receiver and was used as such. He has caught 18 passes for 115 yards. Barber is sturdily built at 5’11, 218 lbs.
High Side – Emmitt Smith I know this sounds extreme, but Barber could have this type of ceiling. He, like Emmitt, punish defenders and seem to finish runs off by falling forward.
Low Side – Willie Green (6’, 214). We did (do) not get a feel for Green’s level of talent (or lack thereof) because he was always mired in a RBBC and could not differentiate himself from the competition. Hopefully, Barber will prove that the flashes of stardom seen in 2005 are reality, not a mirage.
Equivalent – Reuben Droughns (5’11”, 215 lbs). Droughns had 1600 total yards in 2005. He is a good receiver, to compliment his strong running between the tackles. He has proven that last year was not a fluke. Barber, like Droughns, could be a solid RB for several years. In addition, both runners will be able to handle 300+ carries and 30-50 catches a year. But, I would anticipate Barber getting more TDs. I chalk up Droughns’ lack of TDs to the Browns offense more than his talent and nose for the goal line.
Marion Barber definitely has the potential to be a solid Top 20 RB for years to come. Presently, Barber is stuck in a RBBC situation in Dallas with Julius Jones. Barber played well enough for Dallas to cut Anthony Thomas in midseason. I really like Barber for dynasty leagues. He has very good speed, some shiftiness, and good power. When he gets the opportunity, he will produce – just like he did this year. Interestingly, his measurables, TDs, and ypc are very close to that of Caddy Williams. And, both are waiting for sole control of the RB position. Barber could be a star. He runs with his pads low and rarely gets knocked back on contact. His speed lacks the “take it to the house” gear, but is fast enough to break off long runs on occasion. Also, Barber seems to get stronger with more carries. He is a strong runner between the tackles and runs hard. He is a buy with an eye to the future. Barber was in a RBBC in college and needs to prove that he can indeed handle the 300 catches most think he can. Only time will tell.
Ciatrick Fason - Fason is a big, pounding back - with very good speed - who was only used as a goal line and short yardage in 2005. He succeeded in this role in 2005. Of his 32 carries, four went for TDs and 12 for first downs. Since he was used mostly for short yardage, he had a low ypc of 1.9. I do not think this is indicative of his talent, just the carries he was given. Fason is a guy that has the size/speed/power measureables most NFL types drool over. Fason runs with authority and has the speed to take any run to the house. He is a big guy at 6’0 and 207 lbs. He runs larger than the listed size, too. Fason only had one year as a full time RB in college. He is still real raw as a football player. Fason, is a good runner and receiver, but poor blocker.
Comparables:
High Side –Chris Brown – (6’3”, 230 lbs) – Brown is taller and heavier than Fason. But the two have similar upright running styles. Brown is barely touching the hem of his potential.
Low Side – Ron Dayne –Dayne is an enigma who shows flashes, but in the end, it is obvious to all he cannot be relied upon to be the primary ball carrier. Dayne has the size, but thinks of himself as a finesse runner. I used this same example for Benson, too. Also, think James Jackson.
Equivalent – Jamal Robertson. Every preseason, we see Robertson show flashes of greatness. But, Robertson never seems to pull it all together. Maurice Hicks is another example.
Ciatrick Fason is a guy with tremendous upside. With all of the other RBs in Minnesota, and the prominent use of RBBC, Fason will be looking for opportunities to prove he can excel and handle the larger load. He flashed greatness at times at Florida, but seemed to be inconsistent. He possesses great physical tools, but is still raw as a football player. The change of coaching staffs might help Fason. Ideally, he would be used on first and second downs with Moore in on third down. This rotation would take advantage of Fason’s strengths. I still am not sold on Fason. I think he has a ton to prove in order to become the RB most hope he can become. I tend to stay away from guys who flash greatness, but cannot seem to sustain the level. He is the type of player everyone uses the words “potential” and “what if” continuously when referencing. The things Fason has going for him are his measurables: size, speed, and power. Working against Fason are: full scale RBBC, different coaching staff (unknown), poor blocker, and has not diffferentiated himself as of yet from less than great RBs. Maybe he will. But the NFL always has had guys who SHOULD be stars, but are not. He will have to prove he is another Chris Brown, not James Jackson. In the end, I see Fason as a tease for fantasy players.
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wannabee
Footballguy
Here is a thread started by Bloom before the 2005 rookies were drafted. He is very thorough.
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...++fason++benson
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...++fason++benson
wannabee
Footballguy
I found another GREAT thread for knowledge on rookie drafts:
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...++fason++benson
The first post by BETO is astoundingly good. Here it is pasted:
I've seen a lot of questions recently on the value of rookie picks in making trades in new and existing dynasty leagues. Since I have saved my rookie draft data since the 2000 draft I thought I could look it over and form some conclusions. This is my 1st cut comparing 1st round rookie picks in a 12 team league to the corresponding picks in an initial dynasty veteran draft.
This is not meant to be a guide specifically for the 2005 season but rather a guideline for the average draft that balances years with draft classes of varying talent and depth.
First off, let's take a look at some of the trends that jumped out at me from the data.
1. The 1st pick can be a difficult decision. Ricky over Edge, Dayne over Jamal Lewis, Bennett over Tomlinson and Charles Rogers over Willis McGahee are all mistakes I've seen made. Some of them obviously have brutal consequences. Swapping spots with the overzealous 1.2 owner could be profitable on draft day.
2. Reaching for questionable RBs can start some years at the #5 and #6 spots. I think my data shows that although most teams are in need of a young RB, the value of other positions is better starting at around this spot. Good RBs are occasionaly found after the #5 spot but I think the list of busts is probably longer. This is where an eye for a good RB can make a huge difference.
3. All draft spots are not created equally. When picking your draft spot in an initial dynasty the value of the difference in rookie picks (1vs12) is much greater than the difference between veteran picks (1vs12). Having the 1st pick in the rookie draft is probably the equivalent of adding an early 2nd rounder.
Here's my baseline for trading rookie picks. I would adjust these every year depending on my assessment of the quality of the class and what can be had at the corresponding point in the veteran draft.
CODERookie pick # = Veteran pick #
1.1 = 2.4
The perfect srting of players picked #1 since 1999 would include Edgerrin James, Jamal Lewis (or Shaun Alexander if you were bold), Ladainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Willis McGahee and Kevin Jones (personal preference on the last two, jury is still out IMO). Getting players like this is obviously worth more than the 2.4 Vet pick. However, the fact is that no matter how much you love a player, until they start playing on Sunday's you have a good amount of risk. Couple that with weaker draft classes and I think 2.4 is a fairly conservative estimate. At the 2.4 spot you are usually looking at a player with a nice track record to help anchor your team.
CODE 1.2 = 2.8
I don't see much of a difference in picking 1 or 2 over the years for reasons I mention above. However, if your league mate picking at 1 knows his stuff or the draft class is weak at the top that risk must be factored in.
CODE 1.3 = 3.2
The 3 spot is also a money spot where you can expect a worthwhile player. Since '99 the worst player taken at this spot has been Thomas Jones in my leagues. When I think of this spot I think of Tory Holt who has kept his late 2nd, early 3rd round value since he has been in the league.
CODE 1.4 = 3.11
The 4 spot also carries a lot of value historically. A RB with talent but stuck behind a veteran can be found here, (Alexander) or a promising WR. You're still getting a player that could carry 3rd or 4th round value for years to come.
CODE 1.5 = 5.5
This is the 1st big drop in value (16 spots) probably because of the reach factor that I mention above. In my leagues there have been as many busts as successes here.
CODE 1.6 = 5.8
I view the 5 and 6 spots fairly equivalently. As long as you don't reach you are getting a good player that should contribute to your roster in a couple of years like a 5th round would currently do. Beyond this you are getting players who probably will take 2 years to develop.
CODE 1.7 = 7.2
The next big drop hits here (17 spots). Your league mates would have to be asleep to allow talent to drop to here.
CODE 1.8 = 9.1
The average player's value at this spot is declining badly. Need the scouts eye here. The good news is a lot of leagues don't draft QBs this high and you might be looking at the top QB.
CODE 1.9 = 11.1
Nobody of note taken at this spot. Best players seen around here have been Reggie Wayne, Boldin, Porter, Lelie.
CODE 1.10 = 12.6
1.11 = 13.6
1.12 = 15.1
I hope the top 3 picks in the vet draft were worth it!
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...++fason++benson
The first post by BETO is astoundingly good. Here it is pasted:
I've seen a lot of questions recently on the value of rookie picks in making trades in new and existing dynasty leagues. Since I have saved my rookie draft data since the 2000 draft I thought I could look it over and form some conclusions. This is my 1st cut comparing 1st round rookie picks in a 12 team league to the corresponding picks in an initial dynasty veteran draft.
This is not meant to be a guide specifically for the 2005 season but rather a guideline for the average draft that balances years with draft classes of varying talent and depth.
First off, let's take a look at some of the trends that jumped out at me from the data.
1. The 1st pick can be a difficult decision. Ricky over Edge, Dayne over Jamal Lewis, Bennett over Tomlinson and Charles Rogers over Willis McGahee are all mistakes I've seen made. Some of them obviously have brutal consequences. Swapping spots with the overzealous 1.2 owner could be profitable on draft day.
2. Reaching for questionable RBs can start some years at the #5 and #6 spots. I think my data shows that although most teams are in need of a young RB, the value of other positions is better starting at around this spot. Good RBs are occasionaly found after the #5 spot but I think the list of busts is probably longer. This is where an eye for a good RB can make a huge difference.
3. All draft spots are not created equally. When picking your draft spot in an initial dynasty the value of the difference in rookie picks (1vs12) is much greater than the difference between veteran picks (1vs12). Having the 1st pick in the rookie draft is probably the equivalent of adding an early 2nd rounder.
Here's my baseline for trading rookie picks. I would adjust these every year depending on my assessment of the quality of the class and what can be had at the corresponding point in the veteran draft.
CODERookie pick # = Veteran pick #
1.1 = 2.4
The perfect srting of players picked #1 since 1999 would include Edgerrin James, Jamal Lewis (or Shaun Alexander if you were bold), Ladainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Willis McGahee and Kevin Jones (personal preference on the last two, jury is still out IMO). Getting players like this is obviously worth more than the 2.4 Vet pick. However, the fact is that no matter how much you love a player, until they start playing on Sunday's you have a good amount of risk. Couple that with weaker draft classes and I think 2.4 is a fairly conservative estimate. At the 2.4 spot you are usually looking at a player with a nice track record to help anchor your team.
CODE 1.2 = 2.8
I don't see much of a difference in picking 1 or 2 over the years for reasons I mention above. However, if your league mate picking at 1 knows his stuff or the draft class is weak at the top that risk must be factored in.
CODE 1.3 = 3.2
The 3 spot is also a money spot where you can expect a worthwhile player. Since '99 the worst player taken at this spot has been Thomas Jones in my leagues. When I think of this spot I think of Tory Holt who has kept his late 2nd, early 3rd round value since he has been in the league.
CODE 1.4 = 3.11
The 4 spot also carries a lot of value historically. A RB with talent but stuck behind a veteran can be found here, (Alexander) or a promising WR. You're still getting a player that could carry 3rd or 4th round value for years to come.
CODE 1.5 = 5.5
This is the 1st big drop in value (16 spots) probably because of the reach factor that I mention above. In my leagues there have been as many busts as successes here.
CODE 1.6 = 5.8
I view the 5 and 6 spots fairly equivalently. As long as you don't reach you are getting a good player that should contribute to your roster in a couple of years like a 5th round would currently do. Beyond this you are getting players who probably will take 2 years to develop.
CODE 1.7 = 7.2
The next big drop hits here (17 spots). Your league mates would have to be asleep to allow talent to drop to here.
CODE 1.8 = 9.1
The average player's value at this spot is declining badly. Need the scouts eye here. The good news is a lot of leagues don't draft QBs this high and you might be looking at the top QB.
CODE 1.9 = 11.1
Nobody of note taken at this spot. Best players seen around here have been Reggie Wayne, Boldin, Porter, Lelie.
CODE 1.10 = 12.6
1.11 = 13.6
1.12 = 15.1
I hope the top 3 picks in the vet draft were worth it!
wannabee
Footballguy
I have been down on Chester Taylor more than the vast majority of people. In another post, I articulated why. Here is the post copied:
Yes, he does catch a lot of passes an had a decent ypc in Baltimore in limited duty, I am not a believer. Here is his stat line:
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302136
I think the Vikings will be a poor team this year and have to abandon the running game early and often. I look at the one game Taylor did start last year for Baltimore against a good Denver defense. He had the following stat line:
20 carries, 59 yds, 3.0 ypc, longest run 14 yds, 3 catches, 14 yds, 4.7 avg per catch, longest catch 8yds, and 1 fumble. This game included a nice four game stretch where Taylor had 3 fumbles in 4 games.
Here is the game by game stat line:
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302136/gamelogs/2005
I would also ask everyone who is a Taylor fan to look at:
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302136/splits/2005
About a third of the way down the page, it shows the breakdown of production with 1-10 carries, 11-20 carries, and so on. If you notice, Taylor did great with 10 carries or less, having 96 carries, 443 yds and a 4.6 ypc. That is good. BUT, what happens if he gets 11 or more carries in a game? 21 carries, 44 yds, and a whopping 2.1 ypc.
Lastly, I would like you to notice that has a total of 7 TDs in 478 touches (carries and catches). I think his lack of TDs will keep his production down even further.
I would love to hear the Taylor supporters opinions and why they think I am wrong.
Yes, he does catch a lot of passes an had a decent ypc in Baltimore in limited duty, I am not a believer. Here is his stat line:
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302136
I think the Vikings will be a poor team this year and have to abandon the running game early and often. I look at the one game Taylor did start last year for Baltimore against a good Denver defense. He had the following stat line:
20 carries, 59 yds, 3.0 ypc, longest run 14 yds, 3 catches, 14 yds, 4.7 avg per catch, longest catch 8yds, and 1 fumble. This game included a nice four game stretch where Taylor had 3 fumbles in 4 games.
Here is the game by game stat line:
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302136/gamelogs/2005
I would also ask everyone who is a Taylor fan to look at:
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302136/splits/2005
About a third of the way down the page, it shows the breakdown of production with 1-10 carries, 11-20 carries, and so on. If you notice, Taylor did great with 10 carries or less, having 96 carries, 443 yds and a 4.6 ypc. That is good. BUT, what happens if he gets 11 or more carries in a game? 21 carries, 44 yds, and a whopping 2.1 ypc.
Lastly, I would like you to notice that has a total of 7 TDs in 478 touches (carries and catches). I think his lack of TDs will keep his production down even further.
I would love to hear the Taylor supporters opinions and why they think I am wrong.
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wannabee
Footballguy
Also, I just found this blurb:The Vikings have reportedly become increasingly concerned with Chester Taylor's work ethic.
Published Sat Jun 24 10:47:00 p.m. ET 2006
(Rotoworld) The Vikings have reportedly become increasingly concerned with Chester Taylor's work ethic.
Impact: Multiple sources have confirmed Taylor showed up to camp out of shape and that the Vikes' coaching staff has not been pleased. Taylor is still expected to start this season in front of Mewelde Moore, who's recovering from offseason wrist surgery.
ptsteelers
Footballguy
Hey Wannabee,
Does this news/report/info change anything, in regards to some of your posts here ?
Just curious because I see you dropping his name a bit.
(Sorry , no link ... I will try to find one though)
"Bart Hubbuch, writing for the SportingNews, reports Jacksonville Jaguars WR Ernest Wilford will likely be the team's No. 3 receiver, even though he started the last half of last season for injured WR Reggie Williams. Lack of durability and speed make Wilford more valuable in a reserve role."
EDIT:
Came across my fantasy site, and I can't locate an actual link to this report ... it seems, on looking closer however, that this may be "opinion" only ... hard to say.
Does this news/report/info change anything, in regards to some of your posts here ?
Just curious because I see you dropping his name a bit.
(Sorry , no link ... I will try to find one though)
"Bart Hubbuch, writing for the SportingNews, reports Jacksonville Jaguars WR Ernest Wilford will likely be the team's No. 3 receiver, even though he started the last half of last season for injured WR Reggie Williams. Lack of durability and speed make Wilford more valuable in a reserve role."
EDIT:
Came across my fantasy site, and I can't locate an actual link to this report ... it seems, on looking closer however, that this may be "opinion" only ... hard to say.
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wannabee
Footballguy
I read that, too. When you see, for the most part, my support Wilford, it is in non-PPR leagues. There is a reason for it. The guy gets TDs. Without going back through every time, in this thread or others, I pimped Wilford, most was for a WR4. I still like the upside of Wilford. Let's look at the other WRs in Jax:Matt Jones - great upside. The guy is a physical freak. He is huge and fast. But, as I posted in a thread above on this page, I still (probably in the minority) think Jones is unproven to the level of where his value is. Jones is being drafted before many proven WRs.
Reggie Williams - bust. Williams has been an absolute bust so far as a NFL WR. He was drafted in the first round. Check out these stats: http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/493119
Overall, for dynasty, I think Wilford will be a decent WR option. The Jax WRs will need someone to pick up the slack left by the retirement of Jimmy Smith. I would like you to look at this target info and see how Wilford really came on as the season went along. Notice how Wilford was second of the WRs in targets for Jax.
http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-jax-2.php
Also, by looking at the red zone targets, it looks like Jones and Wilford will garner the large share of red zone looks again.
http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-jax-3.php
The one thing we do not know is who the addition of Marcedes Lewis will affect the mix. But, in the long run, I am still very happy to be a Wilford owner.
BTW, here are Wilford's game logs from 2005 (and please notice the difference in productivity in similar amount of action between Wilford and Reggie Williams):
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/493112/gamelogs/2005
I like his upside taking on a part of Smith's departed production.
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Avery
Footballguy
I think some people overlook the value in knowing your league mates and what they value.Often through casual discussion, you can learn who and what certain owner value in terms of teams, positions and specific players. I even have a file where I have information jotted down about my league mates such as what is their favorite NFL team, their willingness to negotiate in a trade, specific players who they seem to like/dislike.
All this information is valuable for predicting who someone else might draft and who might fall. It is also helpful is constructing future trade proposals.
wannabee
Footballguy
Great question. I do not know what the next thing is, but here are some things I think are important:a. Study ADPs, and other initial dynasty drafts, to get a good feel for when each player will be the best value for you.
b. Do several mock drafts from your assigned draft slot. See who should be available at each pick. This helps in two ways: 1) lets you better recognize the value available with each pick (and easily realize a player dropping) and 2) it lets recognize ahead of time the spots that you should either trade up to take the last player before atalent dropoff OR trade down because there is a ton of talent available.
c. Have a plan. This is not a rigid plan. The best drafters are ones that know who will be available for each pick and know which round they should take each player .... as long as things play out as thought. I try to be conservative in this. I try to allow a couple of extra draft slots for each player so that I am not surprised. By this, if I have the 20th overall pick and think (hope) that certain players will be there, I lay out my draft using the 22nd overall spot.
d. Be flexible. Play around in your mock drafts with different positions in each round. I think you can lay out the first 6-8 rounds in each draft fairly easily. The most flexible drafters are those that can best take advantage of value available.
e. Recognize which positions, before the draft, that you are ok waiting on. I waited until the 10th for my first QB in a recent dynasty draft. Some may wait on RB3, or TE. If you know which positions you will wait on, formulate a plan to address this deficiency. By the ADP, and other drafts, I had a good idea which QBs would be available later on. I am a fantasy guy that, for dynasty, loads up on RBs with the thought that they are the easiest to trade away for value.
f. In conjuction with e. above, plan your risks. I say this because if you know where you will take your risks, you can plan around filling your team's needs better. For me, it is usually taking Marion Barber. I like that guy and think he could be a decent RB. In this recent initial dynasty draft (PPR), I traded up to take back-to-back picks of Ahman Green and Marion Barber at 7.01 and 7.02. With this risk, I had to get Gado later, which meant that I had to wait on QB and TE. But, now I have Green/Gado/Barber at RB3. I am happy with this. After the draft, and a trade, I ended up with Leftwich, TGreen, and McNair for a QBBC and JMcCown and Frerotte on the bench. I am perfectly happy with this. For me, it worked out. But, the risk was that I only had two WRs at the time I traded up. I was very lucky, and by plan, that Driver was there for me to trade up to 8.01 for Driver (in PPR). I noticed that he and Coles, both of which I would be happy with as WR3, were dropping, so I waited.
g. In conjuction with f. above, know which picks you will take the steady player.
h. In leagues where you start 3 or more WRs, look for guys like Driver and Mason in rounds 6-8 and Moulds in round 10-11 and even Toomer in round 15. These are the type of WRs you can utilize, especially in PPR leagues, for a few years until your riskier young WRs (Matt Jones, Mark Clayton, Reggie Brown, etc.) get up to a point you can rely on them each week.
i. As the draft is progressing, assuming it is a slow draft, use the ADP and other info, to project your next 3-5 picks ahead of time. I think this is a big key to being successful. This allows you to see how your team might look beforehand, and react accordingly, if you do not like the results.
I know I am forgetting some. More to add when/if I remember.
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stanmarino13
Footballguy
I like what Avery had to say. Keeping up the chatter with ur league is really helpful in many ways. From having guys u can trade with that wont insult ur intelligence/waste ur time with the Priest Holmes, and a 2nd for Larry Johnson and a 1st trades(that was offered to me in week 12 last year i had LJ). To having people available to try and deal guys u might otherwise cut. Also lets not forget that there is a bit of fun to this, and talking it up with other peoples in ur league makes things alot more interesting/personable.
wannabee
Footballguy
Stan, I hear what you and Avery are saying. But, in my leagues, the other owners will feed you full of mis-information. They would like nothing more than to have you trading up, to leap frog them, for a player they do not want anyway.
It is sad that fantasy football is this way at times, but it is. And I do agree with the chatter part.
It is sad that fantasy football is this way at times, but it is. And I do agree with the chatter part.
Avery
Footballguy
I know some owner's who do like to give misinformation. If you know that its coming, it can still be helpful if you know how to read between the lines. Sometimes, it's not what people say, but what they don't say.Also, casual discussion about other teams can still lead to information when another owner's guard is down.
Noahs Troopers
Footballguy
Been offered Darrell Jackson/ Chris Simms / Lavar Arrington
for
Duante Culpepper / Jonothan Vilma
12 team dynasty
Eli Manning is my other QB
CJ, Burress and Wayne are my other WRS, I can start and would start 4 WRS with D. Jax being one of them. Culpepper could end up sitting on my bench. I feel this trade is slighly favored in the other teams direction but have the itch to do it. Advise please.
for
Duante Culpepper / Jonothan Vilma
12 team dynasty
Eli Manning is my other QB
CJ, Burress and Wayne are my other WRS, I can start and would start 4 WRS with D. Jax being one of them. Culpepper could end up sitting on my bench. I feel this trade is slighly favored in the other teams direction but have the itch to do it. Advise please.
wannabee
Footballguy
I am not an IDP guy, but those that are IDPers are always telling me how big of stud Vilma is. Also, I know many are unhappy with Arrington.
I think you can, and will, be able to get more for Culpepper as he proves himself healthy. I would pass on this deal. I am not a Simms fan. I do think you could trade Culpepper for a WR upgrade that would offer your team more value.
I think you can, and will, be able to get more for Culpepper as he proves himself healthy. I would pass on this deal. I am not a Simms fan. I do think you could trade Culpepper for a WR upgrade that would offer your team more value.
Picks or a Player...
10 Team league with 2 keepers (1 rookie and 1 vet)
My rookie is Reggie Brown
My only viable keepers are Dominick Davis and Ruben Droughns
I have the 4th pick and the 6th pick in the first round ( no second round pick).
The decision I need to make is do I keep my 2 first round picks or trade one of them to try and get one of the top backs?
If I keep the picks I could probably end of with 3 very good backs (Portis or Edge or C. Williams or Steven Jackson or Ronnie Brown or LaMOnt Jordon)and then draft WR in rounds 3,4,5.....or would it be better to have that stud before the draft even starts?
I was toying with the idea of taking a RB with pick #4 and then taking Steve Smith or Chad Johnson if still there at #6...I am least comfortable with that though.....
What do you think?
10 Team league with 2 keepers (1 rookie and 1 vet)
My rookie is Reggie Brown
My only viable keepers are Dominick Davis and Ruben Droughns
I have the 4th pick and the 6th pick in the first round ( no second round pick).
The decision I need to make is do I keep my 2 first round picks or trade one of them to try and get one of the top backs?
If I keep the picks I could probably end of with 3 very good backs (Portis or Edge or C. Williams or Steven Jackson or Ronnie Brown or LaMOnt Jordon)and then draft WR in rounds 3,4,5.....or would it be better to have that stud before the draft even starts?
I was toying with the idea of taking a RB with pick #4 and then taking Steve Smith or Chad Johnson if still there at #6...I am least comfortable with that though.....
What do you think?
beto
Footballguy
I threw that question up there and I like the way you answered it. i.e. Get prepared. I like what you said in e. and my answer kind of relates to f. :What I had in mind was talent. For those of you who really get into the whole dynasty thing and following the draft like a religion, you can do a lot of damage by making a list of talented guys that maybe haven't broken out yet. Once you have that list you should use wannabe's research above to figure out what round to take them in.
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wannabee
Footballguy
Please let me know if I have misunderstood this. But, if you trade a pick for a player, it means that you cannot keep Davis (or Droughns). So, you could trade 1.04 for Edge and get another good player at 1.06. Or, you could keep Davis, Brown, take SJackson, and another stud at 1.06.If these are my choices, I do not trade the pick. I say this only because it allows you to keep an extra good player. Also, I do think you have a good plan. Without knowing much about your league, I like your plan and think it should work out for you.
wannabee
Footballguy
I agree. I also think that there is no substitute for doing a ton of mock drafts to get a better feel for how the draft will flow. The best tool I know to do this is the Draft Dominator. For those of you now familiar, it will allow you to draft a team, while it drafts the other teams using ADP.
supermark_28
Footballguy
wannabee,i'm back again... i'm in a 8 team keeper league,we start 2 qb/3rb/3wr/te/k and d. i've been offered edge and vet pick #5 for either SA or LJ. scoring- 8pts per td,1 pt per 10 yds,8pts per receiving td. basically at pick 5 i could land chadj,reuben droughns,holt,fitz,essentially a top wr. would you do it?
supermark_28
Footballguy
or what if it was sjax and pick 5 for SA or LJ?
